AB Ignitis grupe (IGN1L) Earnings Call Transcript

Good afternoon, and welcome to the presentation of Ignitis grupe's results for the first half of 2026. Thank you for joining us today. During today's call, Ignitis grupe's CEO and CFO will present the group's strategic and financial highlights for the period. This will be followed by a question-and-answer session. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that today's presentation contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on management's current beliefs, expectations and assumptions, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. With that, I will now hand over to Darius to walk you through the key strategic highlights.

Good afternoon, all, and thank you for joining our results call. Over the first 6 months of 2026, we sustained strategic progress and consistent financial performance. The key highlights as follows: First, our adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 307 million, representing 2% year-over-year increase. Second, we continued our disciplined Green Capacities portfolio delivery with 2.1 gigawatts of installed capacity and 0.6 gigawatts of assets under construction. Additionally, after reporting period, we added further 0.1 gigawatts to our portfolio under construction as we made final investment decision for Tume battery energy storage system of 107 megawatts and 215 megawatt hours in Latvia. Third, we preserved a stable balance sheet with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 3.5x and reaffirmed BBB+ credit rating from S&P after reporting period. Last, in line with our dividend policy for the first half of 2026, we intend to distribute a dividend of EUR 0.704 per share, representing a 3.1% increase year-over-year. Now let me take to go through the strategic progress over the reporting period. First, the progress of our Green Capacities projects under construction. Currently we have 6 projects under construction with total capacity of 0.7 gigawatts and investments of EUR 422 million. The portfolio includes 1 solar farm, 1 hydro expansion project and 4 BESS projects. To start the 174-megawat Tume solar farm in Latvia, we have already invested EUR 87 million out of total EUR 106 million. The project is progressing on track with 134 megawatts of solar panels already installed. Once completed, the project will be capable of supplying Green Capacity to up to 85,000 households annually. Next, Kruonis 110-megawatt pumped storage hydroelectric power plant expansion project. We have already invested EUR 109 million out of total EUR 150 million. The project currently is 82% completed. All penstock segments have been manufactured and delivered to the construction site. The lower plant, the main components, including distributor, stator and rotor have been preassembled and the test successfully completed. Concreting works in the site are near completion, after which the preassembled components will be installed in the place. The project will increase the plant's total capacity to 1.1 gigawatts and significantly improve the flexibility and reliability of Baltic Energy grid. Now our 4 BESS projects under construction, starting with 147 megawatt and 295 megawatt hours Kelme BESS project. We have invested EUR 18 million out of total EUR 63 million, supported by EUR 7.5 million CapEx subsidy for the project. During the second quarter, deliveries of all battery units were completed. The project is co-located with 314-megawatt Kelme wind farm, allowing it to benefit from shared high-voltage infrastructure. Moving on 99 megawatt and 199 megawatt hours capacity Kruonis BESS project. We have invested EUR 13 million out of total EUR 47 million, supported by EUR 5 million CapEx subsidy. During the second quarter, deliveries of all battery units were completed. As a stand-alone project, it will unlock up to 1.1 gigawatt of flexibility through operational synergies with Kruonis pumped storage hydroelectric power plant. Next, 45 megawatt and 90-megawatt hours Mazeikiai BESS project. We have invested EUR 6 million out of total EUR 21 million, supported by EUR 2 million CapEx subsidy for the project. During the second quarter, deliveries of all battery units were completed. And after the reporting period, deliveries of all inverter units were also completed. The project is co-located with the 63-megawatt Mazeikiai wind farm, allowing it to benefit from shared high-voltage infrastructure. Finally, 107 megawatts of 215 megawatt hours Tume BESS project. After reporting period, we made a final investment decision for it for co-locating Tume BESS with our 174 megawatt Tume solar farm, which is also currently under construction. We are maximizing the project's efficiency through shared grid infrastructure and unified connections. Together, these assets will deliver the flexibility and stability required to power a resilient renewable future across the Baltics. As of now, all projects are being implemented on time and within budget. Turning to our sustainability performance. Over the 6 months of 2026, our net green share of generation increased by 20 percentage points to 84%. However, our electricity generated decreased by 23% to 1.7 terawatt hours. The decrease was driven by lower generation at Elektrenai Complex as the total volume of balancing capacity services provided in the first 6 months of 2026 was lower compared to the first 6 months of 2025. Looking at carbon intensity, our Scope 1 and 2 decreased by 21% as a result of lower electricity generation from natural gas at Elektrenai Complex. Next, our greenhouse gas emissions. It amounted to 2.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, representing a 4% year-over-year increase. This increase was driven by higher Scope 3 emissions, mainly due to increased natural gas sales and higher Scope 2 emissions resulting from cold weather and higher grid losses, partly offset by lower electricity generation at the Elektrenai complex due to the lower need of balancing capacity service. Lastly, on our safety, safeguarding the health and safety of our employees and contractors is among the group's highest priorities. However, during the reporting period, we had one fatal contractor incident. We are committed to take every possible measure to prevent such tragedies in the future. Our employee TRIR has improved and amounted to 0.48 as no incidents occurred during the reporting period, while contractors TRIR increased to 1. Thus the strategic overview completes. I now hand over to Jonas for financial update.

Thank you, Darius. Let me start with our financial highlights of the first 6 months of 2026. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 2% year-over-year and reached EUR 306 million, driven by stronger performance in Networks and Customers & Solutions. Adjusted net profit decreased by 21% and amounted to EUR 116 million, mainly due to higher depreciation and amortization and lower financial activity results, which offset the adjusted EBITDA growth. Our investments decreased by 11% year-over-year and amounted to EUR 306 million with 68% allocated to Networks and 26% directed to Green Capacities. Return on capital employed decreased by 1.9 percentage points, mainly due to the lower adjusted EBIT in Green Capacities. Our net debt amounted to EUR 1.9 billion, remaining largely unchanged, supported by proceeds from the sale of 49% stake of Vilnius CHP. As a result, net debt to adjusted EBITDA remained stable at 3.5x and our FFO to net debt improved to 22.2%. Additionally, after the reporting period, S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed our BBB+ credit rating with stable outlook, confirming our strong financial position. Finally, in line with our dividend policy for the first half of 2026, we intend to distribute a dividend of EUR 0.704 per share, which is 3.1% higher than last year. Let us now review our key performance indicators, starting with adjusted EBITDA. Firstly, Green Capacity decreased by 10% to EUR 149 million, driven by lower captured price and volume. Secondly, Networks grew by 15% and amounted to EUR 147 million, mainly due to higher RAB as a result of continued investments into our electricity network. Thirdly, Reserve Capacities decreased by 11% to EUR 18 million, mainly due to lower result of balancing capacity services. And finally, our Customers & Solutions EBITDA amounted to EUR 0.2 million, and the growth was mainly supported by higher volumes sold, lower imbalance costs and profitable one-off natural gas wholesale transactions. Turning to segment level EBITDA performance and starting with Green Capacities. The main drivers behind 10% year-over-year decrease were, firstly, a lower price captured by our Green Generation assets, especially on the hedged part where, as expected, our hedge price decreased from EUR 130 last year to EUR 82 this year. Secondly, due to a very cold winter, we have had very low wind speeds in the first 6 months of 2026, which resulted in much weaker generation in our wind farms. However, the decrease was partly offset by lower OpEx due to higher spending on development projects in 2025. Now the Networks segment. 11% growth in Networks EBITDA was mainly supported by a higher regulated asset base, which increased from EUR 1.8 billion to EUR 1.9 billion and was driven by continued investments in the electricity network. Weighted average cost of capital remained stable at 5.74%. Next, Reserve Capacities segment. The segment posted 38% year-over-year decrease, which was mainly driven by lower results of balancing capacity services as the market matures and planned major overhaul of Unit 7 at Elektrenai Complex. And finally, Customers & Solutions. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to EUR 0.2 million, driven by both better results of electricity and natural gas. On the electricity side, results were better due to higher sales volumes and reduced imbalance costs on the natural gas side due to higher volumes sold and profitable wholesale transactions. Having reviewed the segment results, let us now turn to our investment activities. In the first 6 months of this year, our investments amounted to EUR 306 million and were 11% lower than last year. The reason behind this decrease was lower investments in Green Capacity segment as 6 projects reached COD in 2025. However, the decrease in investments in the Green Capacities was offset by higher investments in the networks where we invested more on electricity distribution, maintenance and expansion. Turning to free cash flow. It amounted to positive EUR 5 million as adjusted EBITDA fully covered our investments. Also it is worth to mention that asset rotation result is not included in the free cash flow calculation. Let us now review our leverage metrics. At the end of the first half of 2026, our net debt amounted to EUR 1.9 billion, remaining largely unchanged. At the same time, our main credit metric, FFO to net debt, improved to 22.2%, supported by an increase in FFO. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA remained stable at 3.5x. Finally, let us now look at our guidance for full year 2026. Following the first 6 months performance, which was in line with our expectations, we reiterate our full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of EUR 550 million to EUR 600 million and investment guidance of EUR 590 million to EUR 690 million. With that, I will hand over to Darius for the concluding remarks.

Thank you, Jonas. Let me briefly summarize Ignitis grupe's performance during the first 6 months of 2026. Over the first half of 2026, we marked a sustained strategic progress and consistent financial performance with key highlights as follows: First, our adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 306 million, representing a 2% year-over-year increase. Second, we continued disciplined Green Capacities portfolio delivery with 2.1 gigawatts of installed capacity and 0.6 gigawatts of assets under construction, additionally adding 0.1 gigawatt to assets under construction as we made final investment decision for Tume battery energy storage system of 107 megawatt and 215 megawatt hours after reporting period. Third, we preserved a stable balance sheet with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 3.5x and reaffirmed BBB+ credit rating from S&P after reporting period. Fourth, in line with our dividend policy for the first half of 2026, we intend to distribute a dividend of EUR 0.704 per share, representing 3.1% increase year-over-year. And lastly, we reiterate our full year guidance for 2026. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of EUR 550 million to EUR 600 million and investments between EUR 590 million and EUR 690 million. With that, thank you for joining today's call. We appreciate your time and continued interest in Ignitis grupe.

Thank you to our speakers. We will now open the floor for questions. Our first question is, could you please provide a bit more color on the sharp drop in balancing capacity service volumes and reserve capacities in Q2? Was it due to increased competition and favorable spark spreads or else?

Yes. So in Reserve Capacities, indeed, we had a worse quarter than a year ago. But we need to remember that last year, we have had just entered into -- completed the synchronization of Continental Europe. So naturally, there was more volatility in the balancing capacity market. Hence, the results of these facilities were better. This year, the market has already normalized due to both more market participants entering the market and also existing participants getting more familiar with how the market operates. That being said, just a reminder, reserve capacity is essentially the downside protected option to benefit from volatility in the market. So 1 quarter doesn't mean that the results will continue on the lower level. But yes, we need to acknowledge that balancing capacity market is becoming more competitive, and we cannot and we did not expect prices to remain at last year's levels.

The second question we received is as following. Could you please give us your take on the legislation changes related to the prosumer regulation model, the net metering seemingly winning against the net billing model. How much does the new regime change expectations that losses in that part of Customers & Solutions business segment will be dramatically cut?

Yes. So indeed, the decision was to keep the net metering model in place, but at the same time, introduce additional fees for both prosumers and the regular customers to cover the negative impact that prosumers are having. In terms of our expectations, we think that the legislation, which has been already passed, will cover around 60% to 70% of the losses which we are currently suffering. So there will still remain some part, which we'll try to address through pricing decisions on our side. But the bottom line, we expect around 60% to 70% of losses to be covered by the change in the legislation.

Next question we have is, could you please elaborate on the relatively muted EBITDA improvement in Customers & Solutions segment during the Q2 despite visibly higher revenues? It would be great to get an approximate EBITDA breakdown between the gas and electricity businesses within this segment.

Yes. So in Q2, we are starting to see the negative impact of prosumers because that's when the bigger solar generation starts. So that happens every year. And in 2026, it's not an exception. Prosumer impact is still at 100% because we are not yet accounting for the positive impact from legislation, which we just discussed. So in short, prosumers are the main driver of muted EBITDA improvement.

Next question. Green Capacity saw adjusted EBITDA increase by 9.8 percentage year-over-year to EUR 62.9 million in Q2 despite just lower revenues. The increase was mainly related to lower operating expenses for new development projects. I wonder if this new run rate mostly hit other operating expenses in the segment is something we can extrapolate going forward?

Yes. So we are already starting to see the first results of our operational efficiency program where we are trying to focus on the best projects that we have and limit our development expenses on less promising projects. And indeed, going forward, the current run rate is more accurate than what we've seen last year.

The following question. Could you please give us a hint about when one can reasonably expect some kind of clarity on the Curonian Nord offshore wind farm?

Yes. So on Curonian Nord, we are working towards obtaining the construction permit in 2027. And the further decisions would be expected after that.

Next question. What were the factors driving low production from wind apart from lower wind speeds in Q1 and Q2?

Yes. So in terms of other factors, I mean, the wind speeds are the main one. We did have some maintenance -- longer maintenance periods for one of our wind farms in Mazeikiai, but the main driver by far is lower wind speeds.