African Rainbow Minerals Limited (ARI) Earnings Call Transcript
September 4, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the African Rainbow Minerals results for the 2026 financial year. We'd like to thank everyone who's joining us online who is joining us via LinkedIn, but a special thank you to those of you who are joining us in person. Before I hand over just some house rules. So we will allow the presentation until the end, and then we will start with questions. We'll start with questions from the floor, and then we'll move over to online questions, and then we will conclude the presentation. Now please help me in welcoming our Founder and Chairman, Dr. Patrice Motsepe.
Thank you. Thank you. Just a few brief remarks here deep gratitude, my personal deep gratitude. I know I speak on behalf of the Board, and I also know on behalf of the management, to thank each and every one of you for being with us and it's very important. Philip will lead the team with [ Sue ] and the executive management to talk about the results. Also my deep personal gratitude to our board members, Dr. [indiscernible], thank you so much for being here and the rest of the management team. Just as I sit down, 2 important issues. Number one is we started this company many, many, many years ago. We've got some of our partners here. Is that right? Yes. Can you whisper some names because, Thabang, because some of the departments say, I mentioned some and don't mention others. Sorry? And so who's here from [indiscernible]? [ Sandra], wonderful to see you. Thank you so much, Sandra, and [ Impala ] and [ Glencore ] [indiscernible] was in there. I was in Geneva 2 weeks ago at a meeting of the top CEO and Chairman of the largest companies in the world and somebody came to me. I thought a young man and said hello to me and halfway said to me that you are my partner. Well, we work together and I am also quite embarrass, sometimes you've got to pretend, yes, I am your partner. Yes. I'm your partner. And thank God he didn't ask me who am I and the CEO -- the Global CEO of [ Sumitomo ]. Thank you so much. Please pass my deep gratitude to him and tell him that it was wonderful seeing in Geneva and the partnership and the good work that they are doing with the [indiscernible] and through your shareholding, the partnership in [ Assmang], very, very important. As I said, 2 big issues before I sit down. Number one is every company is judged by its results. We've always known that. We have to consistently, consistently from an African Rainbow Minerals perspective, deliver competitive results, good results. And what is very obvious is, of course, there are circumstances which are outside our control. We understand and we know that we are no different in that regard from every single mining company in the world. So we take the price of our commodities and our commodity prices are very volatile and cyclical. And we also take the prices, the currency. I should say, as a South African, I love a strong rand and I should stop there. It's good for the country, good for the poor. And we've always said we have a broader obligation, of course, our #1 duty is to make sure that in terms of our performance. And this I'm so proud of what Philip and Sue and [indiscernible] everyone, who's part of the management toon the rest. And as I said, thanks to the Board. So our track record must reflect that we consistently -- based on what the management does deliver competitive results and our dividends and Philip and Sue will talk about it in terms of the policy that the Board has set is competitive and world-class. But the second issue, which is also important is a company that behaves in a manner that reflects integrity, that reflects honesty, that reflects governance, that reflects respect for legality geo process, it's important for us to create value for shareholders. It's equally, if not more important, that we do so in a legal manner, in an ethical manner. And that is what has always been the culture of ARM and all of the other partnership with establish. And the last point is we've always had a commitment to all stakeholders. We're a company that South Africa has a duty to reflect the best based on meritocracy, the best of our people from all backgrounds and cultures, black people, white people, colored Indian and everybody else must feel that this is their company, not in terms of what we say, but in terms of our track record and how our employees and management feel that we behave and also duty to the country jobs and upliftment. Now we've also agreed that there will be no -- I'm not going to answer any questions and any means any. If you we are going to focus exclusively on the results. And if you have any question about who's going to win the [ MTM ]. And I don't know what the MTN means or other questions that are significantly more complicated. There will be other platforms for that. But because I'm not going to tell you anything that I haven't said in the past. So let's -- the result so good. So when we have good results, and of course, the aim is to do even better. So let me conclude the and -- thank you all for coming. We are so honored and grateful that you are here. And I'm going to hand over back to Thabang and she will call the rest of the team. Thank you so much. Thank you.
Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. I will now hand over to Mr. Phillip Tobias to take us through the presentation.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. And to all attendees, those attending in person and online. A special welcome to our Chairman, Dr. Patrice Motsepe, and to the Board members in our presence. The joint venture partners executive leadership members, operational management and all the ARM employees. Improved earnings once again demonstrates the value and the resilience of a diversified portfolio in a highly volatile market. ARM is pleased to declare a final dividend of ZAR 7 per share. ARM has consistently paid dividends through the cycle. Net cash improved by 54% to ZAR 10.2 billion. This gives ARM the flexibility to pursue value-enhancing growth opportunities. All operations have and continue to improve mining flexibility. Headline earnings is up 19% to $3.2 billion for this financial year. Final dividend of ZAR 7 per share declared dividends from [ Harmony ] of ZAR 512 million was received for 2026, which is up 113%. Assmang is finalizing its final dividend for the financial year FY 2026. Net cash of ZAR 10.2 billion, up 54%, underscoring the strength of our balance sheet. In terms of the headline earnings, improved headline earnings, as I said, demonstrating the resilience of the diversified portfolio, a strong rebound from the PGM operations whilst the other divisions were largely affected by the stronger rent compared to the U.S. dollar. By division, ARM Ferrous posted ZAR 2 billion which was 42% down comparing year-on-year, ARM Platinum ZAR 1.3 billion and ARM Gold ZAR 428 million loss. Headline earnings per share increased by 20% to ZAR 1,660. The 19% increase in headline earnings was driven by the ARM Platinum division were headline earnings for 2 reverse platinum mines increased by 495%. Headline earnings from Modikwa increased by 168% and this was partially offset by ARM Ferrous, ZAR 1.4 billion lower; and ARM Gold ZAR 475 million lower, where earnings were negatively impacted by the stronger rent. The ARM Ferrous division was also negatively impacted by the closure of Beeshoek in October 2025, where local sales decreased by 1.4 million tonnes. We remain committed to paying competitive dividends to shareholders whilst maintaining a robust financial position. Dividends received. We received ZAR 3.4 billion from Assmang and ZAR 512 million from our investment in Harmony. Subsequent to the year-end, AM received a dividend of ZAR 77 million from ARM Coal and ZAR 200 million from Modikwa via ARM Platinum and evidence of improving cash generation across the group. The segmental EBITDA slide demonstrate the value and the resilience of our diversified portfolio in a highly volatile market with a significant contribution from the PGMs this year. With continued improvement in the rail performance on both the Coal and the Saldanha lines. Ferrous and Coal volumes should improve over time. Maintaining a safety and a healthy working environment remains our foremost priority. We are very pleased to report a fatality free year a significant milestone and our first fatality-free since the financial year 2017. It is possible. It is doable. The lost time injury frequency rate improved by 9% to 0.29 200,000 man hours. Key milestones just to mention, Khumani achieved 7 million fatality-free shifts, [indiscernible] achieved 3 million fatality-free shifts, Modikwa achieved 2 million fatality-free shifts over 18 months period, and BlackRock achieved 1 million fatality-free shift over a period of 1 year. This reinforces our commitment to 0 harm and to ensuring that all employees return home safely to their loved ones on a daily basis. ARM remains committed to the responsible stewardship of natural resources. Environmental management continues to be embedded in the way we manage our business, and we are encouraged by the progress achieved during this financial year. Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions decreased by 33% to 1.06 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents mainly due to reduced activity and the adoption of renewable energy at our PGM operations, also realized a 19% reduction to 21.30 million cubes in the water withdrawn. Construction of the 100-megawatt solar plant is completed, marking an important milestone in our transition to a lower carbon energy mix. Our PGM operations began receiving up to 50 megawatts of the renewable power in December with a full 100 megawatts expected to really be realized by the end of -- by the first quarter of the financial year '27. And a long-term ARM Ferrous decision is expected by December 2026. The slide strategy underpins our business focus, our direction and our organizational culture. ARM continues to deliver on its strategy by operating globally competitive mines, disciplined capital allocation, decisive action on underperforming assets and pursuing value-enhancing growth. Production by commodity and ore production volumes decreased by 9% to 13.2 million tonnes, mainly due to Beeshoek Bask mine being placed on [ can ] maintenance in October 2025. Manganese ore production increased by 5% to 3.9 million tonnes, reflecting targeted operational and technical improvements at our BlackRock mine. PGM production was marginally lower. [ 2 Rivas ] came down 1% as a result of the great decline. And Modikwa was down 3% as a result of the open pit ore that was actually delivered to the plant to substitute plant feed with a lower plant recovery factor. The cessation of Beeshoek and the closure of [indiscernible] demonstrate our commitment to take decisive action on nonprofitable businesses. The slides highlight the importance and the resilience of the diversified portfolio and securing sustainable earnings. ARM Platinum headline earnings increased 204% to ZAR 1.345 billion on a stronger PGM basket prices. ARM Ferrous [ East ] to ZAR 2 billion on a stronger rand and lower iron ore rand manganese rent prices. ARM Coal reported a ZAR 28 million loss on lower realized coal prices and a stronger rent. Our outlook on earnings remains positive. We remain focused on quality mining, improving quality production volumes and mining to ore reserve grades. A strong and improved margins from the PGM business on the back of a [indiscernible] PGM basket prices. Our decisive actions to exit manganese alloys businesses is in line with our stated position to deal decisively with loss-making assets. The increase in PGM presence drove earnings with a segment result benefit materially from higher realized U.S. dollar prices and also positive mark-to-market adjustment. [ To Rivas ] and Modikwa unit cost will improve as volumes increase. We remain focused on great improvement and quality production to support unit cash costs. We continue to focus on factors that are within our cost control the cost discipline, mining flexibility and quality mining. PGM production at Modikwa has mentioned, decreased by 3% due to lower planned recovery from the increased processing of open pit ore and the unit cash cost rose by 8%. Two Rivers production declined marginally by 1% and impacted by sympathetic geological structures affecting mining flexibility. Unit cash cost was further impacted by increased development that was realized which contributed an additional 1% to the total increase. Volumes are expected to improve as we mine away from geological disturbances and additional phase line flexibility to be created. Capital expenditure at Modikwa increased, driven by fleet refurbishment, critical space and open pit waste stripping. Very pleased that the Board approved the development of the Bokoni 180,000 tonnes per month project following the completion of the successful definitive feasibility study in June 2026. Bokoni holds the second largest PGM mineral resource base in South Africa, underpinned by a world-class high-grade UG2 resource. The project is expected to deliver an NPV of ZAR 5.9 billion an IRR of 28% and a payback of 6.3 years based on the capital expenditure of ZAR 15.2 billion, a phased brownfield led approach derisks execution and positions Bokoni below the 50th percentile of the global PGM cost curve. Steady-state production of between 350,000 ounces 6E and 400,000 ounces will be achieved and delivered at steady state. Following the acquisition of full ownership in July 2025 at Nkomati, we streamlined our governances and accelerated decision-making, establishing a clear pathway to unlock value. In July 2026, the Board approved the recommencement of open pit mining and nickel concentrate production, fulfilling one of the remaining conditions of the [ Boliden ] offtake agreement, which was announced earlier. The restart is a low-risk, immediately executable opportunity that leverages existing infrastructure and reestablishes South Africa's only primary nickel producer. The stronger rent and lower U.S. dollar index prices for manganese ore and always impacted profitability and free cash flow generation. In wholesales volumes decreased on the cessation of the local sales to [indiscernible], which was followed by the placing of Beeshoek Mine on care maintenance. Improved rail performance, taking into account the introduction of an additional shutdown, I mean this was the first time that we had 2 shut down per annum, basically increasing it from 10 days shutdown to 20-day shutdown for the first time. And we did communicate that this is coming as a measure of really making sure that over a period of time over the next year, we'll be able to catch up with the maintenance backlog that has been communicated. And also the considerable unutilized production capacity position ARM Ferrous to unlock upside potential as rail availability improves. Khumani remains our Tier 1 asset with a long life of high-grade ore. The water supply remained consistent during the year with no significant operational disruptions. Heavy rains and more rains did also help as well even though it has a negative impact on the production as well. Despite adverse weather, Khumani increased production by 92,000 tonnes, demonstrating operational resilience, unit cash cost increased by 10% on inflation and higher diesels, blasting, power and labor costs. At Beeshoek, management is considering all value-accretive options 1.2 million tonne offtake agreement was concluded with AMSA to sell down the stockpiles. Local sales decreased by 1.5 million tonnes for this year. Black Rock mine increased production by 5%, reflecting the success of management targeted operational and technical improvement initiatives. Unit cash cost increased by 7% and driven by inflation, higher safety and compliance-related labor costs and battery electric vehicle maintenance. Significantly, this number came down. I mean, at H1 reporting this number was around 18%. So there was quite a lot of considered effort that went into improving the volumes and really driving this cost increase down. Capital expenditure increased by 18% on a higher development capital against lower prior year base. While unit cost sales decreased by 1% on lower marketing and distribution cost. Production at [indiscernible] reach works and alloys ceased at the end of May 2025, following the permanent closure of the operations. Existing stock is being sold at the [ Qataris ] complex. Sakura production until 31 December -- 31 October 2025 was 81,000 tonnes. The investment was successfully sold avoiding significant losses and liabilities. By taking decisive actions on loss-making operations, Assmang has strengthened its financial position and set itself up for sustainability. Lower coal price and stronger rent weighed on the core results were partially offset by the higher export sales volumes on improved rail performance, demonstrated a strong cost performance. stockpile levels were managed across GGV and PCB. GGV and PCB remained well positioned on the cost curve and continue to have long lives. The average realized USD export thermal coal price for GGB and PCB decreased by 5% and 3%, respectively. Saleable production at GDV increased by 2%, supported by a modest improvement in [ Transnet ] freight rail performance enabling higher production and sales. On-mine unit production costs at GGV increased by 5% as higher diesel prices were offset by increased salable production. ARM's investment in Harmony was positively revalued by 30 -- was positively revalued by ZAR 388 million in financial year '26 and is reflected at ZAR 8.67 billion based on the 30 June 2026 share price -- 18.67 billion, well, thank you very much. ZAR 18.67 billion based on the June share price. -- received ZAR 512 million in dividends from Harmony. Subsequent to the year-end, Harmony declared a final dividend of ZAR 750 per share. ARM owns 74.65 Harmony shares. ARM remains fully committed to Harmony as a strategic investment and remains confident in Harmony and its management's ability to drive growth and value for our shareholders. We are pleased with the progress in advancing the Berg project, confirmed by the prefeasibility study as a large-scale copper molybdenum development with a 28 year life of mine. Following the top-up offering and the private sales placement, ARM shareholding in search increased to 19.9% on a non-diluted basis. The project is progressing now into the feasibility level studies, environmental assessment and permitting with ARM assessing its participation through defined decision gates as it is derisked. ARM's key focus areas: operating globally competitive, profitable and safe mines. We are proud of achieving a fatality free year and remain committed to achieving 0 harm. On the disciplined capital allocation, we'll prioritize opportunities that deliver competitive margins and superior risk-adjusted returns and deferring or rephrasing capital where appropriate. Decisive action on underperforming assets, with regard to Bokoni, the Board approved the development plan, with regard to Nkomati, the Board approved the restart of the mine and the divestment of [ Katerech ] and Sakura. Maintaining a robust balance sheet by generating profits, reducing costs and deferring nonessential capital expenditure whilst running our current portfolio of assets profitably. Pursuing value-enhancing growth, the phase the development of Bokoni, developing commodities open pit operations, strengthening copper exposure through [indiscernible] Copper and implementing the phase approach also to our Merensky restart. Collaborating with key stakeholders to optimize logistics and infrastructure constraints, including rail, port and water recovery and private sector participation on the [ Cubera ] and the Saldanha export corridors. With that, I'll hand over to Tsu will come and take us through the capital allocation.
Good morning, everyone. Chairman just asked that I also recognize [ Andre Hubert ]. He forgot -- he forgot to recognize you earlier. Hello, Andre. Okay. All right. So during the year, we prioritized investing in our existing businesses, and we invested around ZAR 2.5 billion during the year. And if we look at it on a segmental basis, that comes to around ZAR 4.9 billion. And that would include our attributable portion of CapEx at the Assmang operations. So in terms of how we allocated capital, we allocated capital to the deepening of declines, fleet refurbishment and replacement to infrastructure and waste stripping at our open pit operations. During the year, as part of our capital allocation, we also sought to grow our existing business. So this is evidenced by the recent announcements we made that Philip referred to being the Bokoni 100 and [indiscernible] development project and the restart of operations at Nkomati. And both of those projects, we are confident will enhance shareholder returns. We remain committed to declaring dividends and returning capital to shareholders, which we continue to demonstrate in the form of the ZAR 7 final dividend that we've just announced. This slide illustrates how we generated cash and how that cash was allocated during the year. If we look at the cash generated by operations, we generated ZAR 4.2 billion, which is a significant increase in the cash generated specifically ZAR 45 million -- ZAR 45 million versus ZAR 4.2 billion and the cash generation also takes into account an increase in net working capital of ZAR 803 million. In terms of dividends received, we received dividends 3.4 billion, from our Assmang JV with [indiscernible], which is ZAR 1.1 billion lower than the dividend received in the prior corresponding period. During the year, we also received dividends of ZAR 512 million from our investment in Harmony. If we look at how we actually applied the cash that came in, so we paid our tax to the tune of ZAR 445 million. We invested ZAR 2.7 billion in capital expenditure, which -- yes, which was the largest cash outflow in terms of our cash flow statements. And in terms of our CapEx, it's relatively consistent with what we spent in the prior year. The majority of that spend was for stay in business capital, totaling ZAR 1.5 billion, of which ZAR 718 million was spent on mine development at Bokoni and ZAR 524 million was spent, deepening the declines at the main and North [indiscernible]. Okay. If we look at our net cash, our total borrowings during the year decreased by ZAR 1.9 billion to a balance of ZAR 157 million as of the end of June 2026. The decrease was due to the repayment and settlement by Two Rivers of its term loan and revolving credit facilities which had been taken out by Two Rivers to complete the Merensky plant. Now despite that, ARM still has a relatively low interest-bearing debt from a group level and close the year at a net cash to equity position of 16%. The capital expenditure for the reporting period was covered by Philip in his section, but I will just highlight a couple of things. So segmental capital expenditure on attributable basis. This is segmental was ZAR 4.9 billion for the year under review, which was ZAR 880 million higher than last year. So most of this was spent as you'll see there, ZAR 2.8 billion or ZAR 2,759 million, ZAR 2.8 billion at our ARM Platinum operations, ZAR 1.8 billion at ARM Ferrous operations and ZAR 299 million at our Coal operations. In terms of the ARM Ferrous capital expenditure, it includes capitalized waste stripping costs of ZAR 400 million. That's on a Assmang 100% basis. And last year, that figure was at ZAR 848 million. If we look at the guidance for 2027, '28 and '29. So if we look at '27, firstly, it shows an increase of ZAR 2.1 billion and increasing to ZAR 7.2 billion. Now that is compared to the guidance we had communicated in March, where we expected that the 2027 CapEx would be ZAR 5.1 billion. Now the reason for the increase is obviously due to the approval of the new projects, namely Bokoni and Nkomati that have now been brought into the guidance. So Bokoni project capital, between the period 2027 to 2029 will come to about ZAR 8.4 billion just for those 3 years as the project ramps up. Also included in the capital guidance are waste stripping costs at our iron ore operations, which increased to ZAR 1.3 billion on an attributable basis in F 2029. Thank you. Sorry, just an addition to the financial results, but as long as it's ARM related. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Philip. Thank you, Tsu. We'll start with questions from the floor. Do we have a question? Go ahead, Brian.
Morgan Stanley. Just a question on Modikwa. If we could just dive into that a little bit more. Last year, you started milling open cost material through the concentrate. And I always get a little bit worried when mines do that because it tells me that there's not enough coming from underground. You are spending a bit more money, but it doesn't look like a lot of money at Modikwa. Just could you just catch us a little bit about the way forward there. The guidance is -- this is about a 10% to give us a bit of confidence that that's actually going to materialize.
Okay. Brian, do you have another question? We're going to take 3 questions at a time.
My name is Thobela Bixa from Nedbank CIB. Just a couple of questions from me. I think the first one is on, I guess, the valuation of the company. If one takes into account your Harmony proportion, your Assmang attributable net cash as well as also your net cash on the balance sheet and of the valuation of the business. So could you just take us through as to what your thinking is with regards to the undervaluing of your PGM assets? And what is management planning to do about that? So that's the first question. And then just with regards to your Ferrous division, even though perhaps Transnet did a bit better in the period, it doesn't seem to translate into some of your export sales and volume numbers. Could you just talk to us as to what perhaps could have constrained your export sales?
Thank you, Thobela. Okay. We'll deal with those questions. Johan, can you --
Yes, certainly. Good morning, everybody. Yes, your observation has been correct. We started producing open cost as a result of the lack of flexibility from the Underground UG2. Now we have been suffering on the development side for quite a few years. We have, however, turned that around. So compared to last year, and I just want to give you an accurate figure, we've done 2,000 meters more in terms of development this year than what we've done last year. That is a 28% improvement in the development. So the open cost is essentially a gap filler. As soon as we have adequate reserves available from underground, we will switch back to underground. I must also add that the open cost at this stage is profitable. The grade is higher than the underground grade. This are is closer to surface where it's oxidized, you see lower recoveries than typical, but it makes good business sense to produce the open cost. Thank you.
Thank you, Johan. Philip, will you take the question on the Harmony issue and the undervaluation of our PGM assets?
Yes. Thank you very much for that question, [indiscernible]. I think, firstly, just to acknowledge, conglomerate discounting that the undervalue of the PGM. I think if you have a look at the period, I would say, over the past 3 years. You would remember that we've already mentioned on the performance side, that there has been some constraint, especially on the Two Rivers. We mentioned that we're going through geological features. Thus, we're going through for structure can say on the optimal side, we touch on that. With the phase flexibility that is coming, we believe that we're sort of going to unlock that potential performance. And as Johan mentioned, on the Modikwa side, there has been also a phase length flexibility challenge. We brought in that last year. I mean, we took a decision to put the South 1 shaft on can maintenance because it was economically -- it was not economically viable. So with that, one would say there's still areas of opportunity on the performance side on the PGM side. We're not really on that full output. So we do believe that also with that optimizing the performance to a certain extent, we'll also be able to sort of really unlock that value and be able to uplift the valuation on that. And then yes, I'll stop there, Tim.
Okay. I'll come back to you guys if you have any follow-ups on that. And then [ Marika ], could you please take the first question?
So on the iron ore well within Ferrous on iron ore, 2% year-on-year better ratings and a system delivered 1%. What is positive about that is we have 2 shutdowns. So we, in effect, had another 10 days out, but the result of that at in days out fares, but it is not only indicative of the maintenance. We did receive several trains that were allocated to us due to other mining companies and emerging miners that could not take up their capacity allocated to that, and that really assisted us where Khumani railed 12.6 million tonnes versus the 12.3 million of last year. And Black Rock railed at 3.8 million versus 3.68 of last year. So it is a short-lived increase because the sustainability is not there due to the maintenance on the line having to be prioritized, having to be attended to, which is going to take time for the industry to up. And obviously, that is our main target. For our business, manganese and iron ore, we need volume.
Thanks, [ Marika]. Brian and Thobela, I just want to ask if you have any clarifying or follow-up questions. Yes.
Sorry, just to press you a little bit on Modikwa. I'm still not entirely clear how we're going to lift those volume from 10% from where we are today to 2029. It's not a mine that survives through the cycle. It gets cross subsidized by the other mine. [indiscernible] feet or is it just -- this is always going to be Modikwa. It's always going to be a mine that struggles through the cycle. Is that -- that's just a clarification on that one. Maybe just to be cheeky, just add another one, if I may. We heard from [indiscernible] yesterday that the Merensky and Two Rivers hasn't been bought -- approved out of thought in this price environment, it looks like an attractive project from our perspective than it would have been. Maybe just some comments from your side on what's holding that process up.
Thanks, Brian. Johan, can you please answer that again? And then on Merensky, I'll ask Jacques to answer that one.
Brian, yes, to clear up, the key issue at Modikwa has been availability of stoping areas. So through the additional development we're doing, we are opening up additional stopable reserves. We also invested money in real enabling structures, infrastructures. So we're pushing the declines deeper. And as you push the declines deeper, you can move away from the upper levels with a longer distance. So we've introduced level costing models. We can have a look at the profitability of every level, if it's making sense we will continue to push it. If it doesn't make sense, we cut back. But we're also looking at other things that helps us to get better results. You look at the cost control, the cost had been very close to budget the actual expenditure. The volume had been the thing that impacted on the unit cost. We've maintained the grade very well. So grade control is absolutely well controlled. In the concentrator, we are doing a lot of additional work to push up the recovery. We've looked at statistical process control. So we know where the sweet spot sits in the concentrator. And we've also started investing money in advanced process control. So that you automate the adjustments in the process and that you ensure stability in the concentrator. So I'm very confident that looking at the team we have, looking at what we've achieved compared to what we planned, we are on a road to success at Modikwa. I must also mention that in the past, we had some issues with instability in the community that is something of the past. The communities are very supportive. Labor relations are very good at Modikwa. It is a good team, and you will see the success coming from Modikwa. Thank you.
On your question with regards to Two Rivers Merensky, that project was placed on care maintenance in August 2024. Since then, we have invested the resources to better understand the geology based on the infill drilling that we have done. So revised updated block model was completed as well as analysis of the 1.2 million tonnes that we did mine during the Merensky project itself. And that then informed a restated feasibility study restart plan that was completed in May this year in 2026. The outcome of that was that to ensure the optimal mining cut, we are transitioning from high-profile fleet to low-profile fleet to provide a bit more flexibility for the teams to be able to follow the optimal cut, which we do believe will provide us with the increase in grade. And the overall outcome of the feasibility study was positive. It was exceeded our hurdle rate.
So what we have -- what the -- two Rivers Board has approved with both partners in last year October, we recommenced with the Merensky decline development. And by June this year, we've deepened it from 4 level to 5 level. We have -- what that development crew development has now transitioned to a stoping crew. And emphasis, and we'll introduce a second stoping crew in November. That's progressing very well. In July, we had 1 stop in crude at 22,000 tonnes. And last month in August that at 23,000 tonnes. And the emphasis over the next couple of months is to really just see the changes that we've done in the mining cut as well as the low profile fleet that we've introduced, what sort of great can we achieve out of it. And the plan is going forward that was approved in March next year, we'll introduce another sinking crew. Going forward, we would progressively ramp up the stoping crews to a total of minimum requirement of 6 to be able to get 120,000 tonnes, which is the minimum required to restart your Merensky concentrator plant. We anticipate that we will reach that level in about 2 years from now. In the meantime, the stocks that Merensky is -- stoping crews are generating. We are milling a proportion of that through. We have also recommissioned a crushing plant of the Merensky circuit, which can crush finer than the UG2. And that increased our ability in terms of processing Merensky through the UG2 concentrator plant by about 10% so overall, the Merensky project is looking quite positive. We are taking a disciplined staged approach in terms of how we ramp it up. And the key intention is that we need to get to that minimum 120,000 tonnes sustainably per month before we can recommence and start of the concentrate plan.
Thank you. Do we have more questions from the floor?
Good morning. I'm [ David Rocker ] from Phoenix Research. First of all, I'd like to offer congratulations for your fatality free year. That's always [indiscernible]. Congratulations there. Secondly, I see that Bokoni, you're mentioning a number of ZAR 15 billion at a long time since any of us have seen something over ZAR 10 billion. So that's a big number. If anyone would like to say something about that, it would be much appreciated. And then just some small detailed questions on Modikwa. As per your previous announcement, your -- the [ bench ] shaft at North shaft is that finished now? And secondly, your underground to surface conveyor belt at South 2, is that commissioned. And I see that you wanted to go up to 100 kilotons per month there. So just those 2 questions. Thank you.
Okay. Johan and Jacques?
Yes, I can go for the Modikwa one. the ventilation shaft at North decline had indeed been completed. We've picked up a few issues with water ingress closer to surface. That had been sealed properly. And the shaft is functioning the way it has been attended to ventilation conditions at [indiscernible] improved significantly. Then the [ BA ] belt at South [ to ], that is due for completion in October, and that will also take pressure off from the overland tramming at South to ramping up, ideal, yes, to go to 100,000 to 120,000 tonnes. But that is being delayed by the sinking operations. So with a focus on development we will see that sustainable buildup at [ 2 shaft].
The -- coming to the Bokoni project, you quite dry, ZAR 15 billion is a substantial amount of capital. And that's certainly not an investment that the Board has taken likely. But we do believe, if you look at the quality of the asset and the return of that asset over through the cycle will generate it certainly justifies that capital investment, and that will generate very good returns for shareholders. I think if you're for in terms of the grade of the asset, focusing specifically on as well as the lower mining complexity of the UG2 relative to the Merensky that was mined before. We do believe that we can deliver a consistent superior grade into the mill relative to other mining operations. What that enabled you is that for a relatively lower volume at 180,000 tonnes with that higher grade feed into the mill. We can produce 350,000 to 400,000 ounces per year, which is -- it's actually higher than what Two Rivers currently produce and have to more than 300,000 tonnes per month all of those qualities combined, then ultimately lead to a steady state, a very competitive cash cost position, which we certainly believe based on benchmarking going forward in terms of the PGM sector, will be in the lower half of the cost curve, which for the PGM industry is quite important given the volatility of historical PGM prices. You need a PGM asset that is very competitively positioned on the cost curve. So that even during periods of difficulty, where the PGM prices are lower, that you can still sustainably generate profits for the shareholders. It's a long-life asset. A lot of rigorous work that we have concluded over the last 4 years. That is -- it is an excellent project, and we've got a very high confidence level in our ability to be able to execute on that project. And we -- it will generate very good returns for shareholders. Thank you.
Thanks, Jacques. I don't see any more hands up on the floor, so we will move on to Capcom questions. So we'll read 2 questions from [ Tim Clark ] and then from [indiscernible] then we'll address the investor questions later. Tim says may I ask how you think about capital allocation going forward? Balancing quite a deep list of cash requirements for Bokoni, ZAR 15 billion in Nkomati and [indiscernible], USD 3.7 billion and potentially capital for Modikwa? And then his second question is -- please may I ask how you think about potential synergies with Khumani and [indiscernible] and if you see an opportunity for realization of these synergies. So Tsu I'll you to answer the first one. And then the second one, is it going to be Philip or [indiscernible], Philip Okay. And then the third question comes from [ Singen ] from Dow Jones. How is ARM navigating the high iron content on the manganese product. Maryke, you'll take that.
Thanks for the question. I'm audible. Thanks for the question, Tim. So I think in terms of capital allocation and the number of projects that we'll be embarking on as a company, I think what is important to realize is that all of these projects are not going to be happening at the same time. So they will be phased. So let me just give you an example. So you have Bokoni. Yes, you've got a ZAR 15.2 billion bill but that will be spent over 7 years right? So with the majority of the spend being in the first 3 years, and then it tapers off to basically nothing come year in terms of how we plan on funding Bokoni, that would be a mixture of on cash as well as cash generated by Bokoni itself. And that cash that is generated by Bokoni then also contributes to the peak funding of the project dropping. So instead of that ZAR 10.2 billion, right? And then obviously, as Bokoni ramps up, that cash generation comes through, we did it out to the shareholders. In terms of Nkomati, Nkomati, very low capital amount. The infrastructure is there. So that bill is not a lot. We're looking at ZAR 1.9 billion to be spent over the next 2 years, but very quick payback period. And so then, again, that cash then will be generated, and we don't foresee issues there. [indiscernible], I think, is the other one that Tim mentioned. In terms -- so just to remind you, we hold 19.9% of [indiscernible]. So the prefeasibility study results that we showed was on 100% basis . So you need to look at what we would be in for as a 20% shareholder. In terms of the expected expenditure in our portion towards the project developed, project bid development costs, that's only expected to come through [ '20 ] financial year in 2030 and 2032, for each of those 2 years. Again, by that time, the Bokoni would be generating cash. Nkomati would be generating cash. Yes. So there isn't, I would say, we're quite cognizant that it is very important that these projects are faced to ensure, firstly, that there is no undue pressure on the on balance sheet there is sufficient room to be able to, but also that they are able to generate cash so that we can actually see that come through in the dividends that get declared and paid over to shareholders.
Thank you very much Tsu. And just to clarify, that 2.2, it's in rands and not U.S. dollar.
Yes, it's in rand. ZAR 2.2 billion.
And then Tim also just asked [indiscernible]. Could you perhaps want to touch on like the planned CapEx for Modikwa. I mean, it's just normal run of business there.
Yes. So it is maybe [indiscernible] Jacques in terms of the amount and then I'll speak to possible [indiscernible] assets of funding.
So on adequate capital guidance, it's just over ZAR 1 billion on 100% over the next year. It's primarily focused, as Johan [indiscernible] correctly, there's a big focus currently on development performance to increase that so that we can ramp up and increase our underground production levels. over the next 3 years. We have seen a 46% improvement in year-on-year production and going forward, we would like to carry that momentum forward. So the majority of that money is spent on the development increase as well as trackless fleet, [ TMM ] fleet required to support and increase that development.
In terms of how you define it, it will be funded by cash that is generated by its own by the actual operation. So for Modikwa, that will not require any type of external funding. And the estimate right now is actually won't require any funding from the shareholders either.
Thank you, Tsu.
If I can just one correction on what I just [indiscernible]. Our operations in terms of challenged with cost increasing cost challenges. Is the potential value that can be locked in synergies with most probably collaboration. I think the answer is certainly there is a potential. But at this point in time, it's not something that we're basically doing or evaluating or actively evaluating. So we are currently focusing on things that we need to sort out from our own business as [indiscernible]. But should most probably the opportunity come our way in the future, something that is worth really exploring. But potential opportunity unlock from any neighborhood, I mean, there's most probably that opportunity of value unloc k...
Thanks, Philip. [indiscernible], do you want to talk about the high iron ore content or manganese?
Yes. So it's a full start is -- sure. The gods are coming down on us. We do not have a general high iron ore in our manganese. We're going through a specific batch in SIM 1, which has got a higher iron ore. In the application of manganese in smelting, it is not about a high the iron ore, it's the ratio, the manganese iron ore ratio. So we have as with one specific client who received some complaints and what we've done needs to implement a value-in-use based blending application where we use special low grade which we call [indiscernible], allows our customer to get the same benefit in the smelters. So it's definitely, I just want to clarify, it's not a general thing. It's just the pocket we're mining through.
Thank you very much, [indiscernible]. I'm just going to scan the room quickly to see if there's any questions on the floor. Okay. Then I'll move on to [indiscernible] from Investec. [indiscernible], these questions are for you. So he's saying on iron ore CapEx. FY '27 guidance has come down by around 10% versus the previous guidance, but FY '28 has increased by around 23% and spend remains elevated into FY '29. Can you unpack what is driving this elevated CapEx cycle? More importantly, should we expect this higher level of capital intensity to continue beyond FY '29. So that's his first question. Second question, was Khumani unit cash costs up 10% in FY '26, particularly reflecting higher diesel and other above inflation cost pressures and the iron ore business entering a relatively capital-intensive period, how are you thinking about cost reduction across the Ferrous business? Particularly against a muted commodity price outlook and a stronger end, where do you see the key opportunities to structurally lower the cost base and protect margins?
Okay. Thanks, Thabang. So let me start with the increase in capital. The increase in capital is due to came 15. It's a specific bit that we need to strip, which we're starting to strip this financial year. It's got a stripping ratio of over 6% and about a reserve of 70 million tonnes of very high-grade iron ore. The stripping is starting this year. So the year that we just finished, we had a stripping ratio of 2.26%. Our average stripping ratio is 2.86%. We're moving into this year's stripping ratio to 2.4, gradually up and the next 5 years, average stripping ratio is going to be 3.4%. That's the reason for the capital increase. It was planned. It's always within the life of mine of Khumani. And you would also see that's why monies year-on-year capital went up by 7% because of fleet replacement. We were getting the operation ready getting in the new fleet as well as on the cost question, I just want to answer one thing in this section. We decided not to buy new equipment and rather use Beeshoek equipment. So we moved that over. So we had quite a bit of a cost saving there. With regards to the next 5 years, the answer is yes. The capital expenditure will remain the same for the next 5 years, and then it will go down. Our total rock on ground tonnes this year was 63 million tonnes. It goes up to 73 million this year, then 90, 95 and then stabilizes at 90. So yes, Khumani is going to be capital intensive for the next 5 years to ensure we do have or available. On cost savings, as we've communicated numerous times before, 33% is within our control. So within that 33%, we've got an extensive efficiency project called [indiscernible] where we are targeting, targeting reducing of cost the best as we can. Secondly, we're focusing on get more volume. So when we get the opportunity, as we've gotten this past year, we will export more volume, and that will assist us during these 5 years. And lastly, I also just want to say, yes, it is a difficult market for iron ore, but Khumani has got a niche market. We've got a very high grade ore and secondly, the lumpy premium is really benefiting Khumani, as you've seen it sitting at $18 a ton.
Thank you very much, [indiscernible]. We've got 2 more questions on [indiscernible]. From Shashi Shekar, who's from Citibank. Are there any plans to increase ownership in the search copper project? And the second one is from [indiscernible] from Dow Jones, seeing flat volumes at lower earnings on manganese, can you elaborate on challenges you experienced there? So I think, Jacques, you can take the search copper question, and then [indiscernible] will answer the second.
Thank you, Thabang. Search copper certainly we've got the potential to develop in a Tier 1 world-class copper asset, let's say, long life open pit asset. We have significant byproduct credits. If you look at the optimum, silver and gold contribution and that pays for the total operating cost more. So it's actually got a negative C1 cash cost once it's in operation. So your copper that you produce essentially comes for free. It -- the volumes also in the work that the search team has done, it's become a much larger project. So copper production for the first 5 years has gone up from comp equivalent from 120,000 tonnes to 200,000 tonnes. And however, with that, there has been quite a big increase in capital cost as well. going up from CAD 2.1 billion to CAD 3.5 billion. So it's certainly a big project. We currently have 19.9% interest in search copper which is the limit in terms of the rules on the Toronto Stock Exchange for search Copper is listed to prevent you from becoming a control person. And what that means if you want to go beyond 20%, you've got to make an offer to all minorities to acquire Currently, we're very pleased with the work with the search copper management team has done. We really think we have done excellent work up until now. And also the plan going forward now where the submission of the environmental approval process, which is a big milestone that they plan to do over the next couple of months as well as the completion of the feasibility study, which is essentially the DFS. That is all planned to be completed over the next 3 years with the environmental assessment in British Columbia, taking the longest period of time there. There is [ no ] fatal floors that we've identified in that EA process. They've got a very good relationship also with their first nations engagement. And we anticipate that, that work would be completed by 2030, 2031. For us to be able to -- as ARM, we always pride ourselves as a -- firstly, as a mining operator, which has got a big contribution towards the actual management and operation of the mines. And certainly, in time to come, we would consider how it's possible for us to go beyond the 20%. But at this stage, given the capital priorities and development in our platinum portfolio that we are focusing on, it's not something that will happen in the near term. But at the appropriate time, I think, closer to completion of feasibility study as well as the environmental approval process, we would see from a strategic point of view, working with the Search Copper team in terms of how we can be involved in the further development of that asset. However, given the significant capital size of that asset, it will most likely be in some form of joint venture. At this point in time, the capital would just be too much for us to consider an 100% basis as on but very pleased with the progress done to date. The asset is actually surprising us on the upside compared to our original investment case, and it's looking very promising going forward. In metals that are continuously going forward in significant demand, copper, molybdenum, silver and gold. We've got very much a positive demand outlook with regards to the energy transition and critical metals worldwide.
Thanks. [indiscernible]. So I think the short answer is we will decide in the future ...
So on the manganese, firstly, I just want to say we are extremely proud of BlackRock. We had a 5% year-on-year increase in production, 7% year-on-year increase in cash cost per tonne, which is excellent. And it was mainly because of inflation and Philip has said then the other 3% was diesel, diesel explosives and freight and then the compliance portion. So then the question on volumes remaining flat is pertaining to export volumes, if I listen to the question. So yes, the export volumes was 3.66 this year. 3.6 million versus 3.7 million. So about a 50 kiloton difference. However, the earnings was almost 200 million lower. The reason for that is twofold. The first reason is the stronger rand. So the rand came in at [ ZAR 1688], which was stronger year-on-year. That had a huge impact. But the second impact that is more material for Black Rock is the high-grade manganese pricing. On your [indiscernible] lump, And your 44 fines, the index price year-on-year was 5% lower. However, the realized CIF pricing for lumpy on the 44 grade was 11% lower and on fines was 7% lower. That impacted us materially. However, we have gone through our commercial team. Thank you, Gael, and did some extensive work to look into the future and we foresee and a growth in that price. So we do not expect to see it in this year again. I hope that answers the question.
It does [indiscernible]. And I guess we'll always be constrained by rail when it comes to Black Rock. And so those are the constraints we have to work within. I do not see any more hands from the floor, and I don't have any more questions from Capcom. I want to thank you all for attending our results again. Please just note for investors and analysts, we will be having a roundtable as we usually do at 2:00 p.m. look forward to hosting you to answer your more detailed questions and modeling questions. And thank you to the management team for doing an excellent job. Before I conclude, I'd like to hand over to our Chairman, Dr. Patrice.
Sorry. there is nothing to hand over. Thank you.
I think that's the [indiscernible]. Thank you, everyone. Join us for lunch.
Read the full transcript via the API
You're viewing the first half of this call. Get the complete African Rainbow Minerals Limited transcript - plus 255,000+ transcripts from 12,000+ companies, speaker segments and full-text search - through the EarningsAPI REST API or hosted MCP server.
Get an API key View API docs →For developers and AI pipelines
Programmatic access to African Rainbow Minerals Limited earnings transcripts and 255,000+ others is available through the
EarningsAPI REST API and the hosted MCP server.
Quarterly plans from $145 - full transcripts, speaker segments, full-text search,
and the /api/v1/transcripts/recent polling endpoint for ETL pipelines.