Agilyx ASA (AGLX) Earnings Call Transcript
October 30, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
All right. Sorry about the slight delay there. Could you just give me a feel for who's online, please?
So we've got a mixture of analysts and investors online Jan. And just to let everybody know that we will be recording this call so that it can be go up on the website afterwards so that people can refer back to it as they wish. And at the end of the presentation, we will do a Q&A. [Operator Instructions] I'll hand it back to you, Jan. And perhaps anybody that's not presenting -- I think everybody is on mute but we have a slight -- I think some people still are unmuted. So we might just mute them. Yes, that's perfect. Great. So there you Jan, over to you.
Thank you very much. Thanks, Louise, and thanks, everybody, for joining. Excellent that you take the time. We thought on the back of what we announced last week, it would make sense to just go through in step by step. What we actually did announce and the logic behind it, and also why we are so excited about the fact that we have now restructured the joint venture, Cyclyx, which was previously obviously like 75-25 percent venture with ExxonMobil and now 50-25-25 with ourselves ExxonMobil and LyondellBasell. We see an absolutely phenomenal potential on the back of this transaction when it opens up, and I hope we can get proper understanding of that and what it potentially can mean for Cyclyx and ultimately, obviously, Agilyx. But also taking the opportunity to give a quick update on where we are with our conversion business. So we'll run through it relatively quickly. It will be myself, it will be Joe Vaillancourt, who is our CEO of Cyclyx previous CEO of Agilyx. It will be Carsten Larsen, who is running our Chief Commercial Officer in Agilyx and very much focused on the conversion business and of course, Russell Main our CFO. So those are main players in this. So if we move to the next one. Thank you very much. So what you see on this slide is a quick summary like an executive summary where we really see a pivoting in both the Cyclyx, the waste management business as well in our conversion business, which we run within Agilyx. So I'd take a step back a little bit here and really look at why are we focusing so much on Cyclyx and why are we so excited about it? It's really -- if you'd be looking at circularity for plastics, it's something that has been talked about for a long time. There's been a lot of interesting technologies developed in order to actually materially move that to become a meaningful volume contributor into the plastics manufacturing field. But -- and Agilyx obviously has one of those pieces in the puzzle. There is no one silver pullet to solve this issue with sort of one technology, one solution, not at all. But one of the key bottlenecks actually has been for years, the front end. They're getting your hands on the waste, number one. And secondly, being able to give the waste as a feedstock to the different converters, be it an Agilyx operator, be it ExxonMobil, LyondellBasell or whoever. And to give it to them in a composition in a predictable way so that they can make the product that they are targeting to make. And that's Cyclyx. That is what Cyclyx does. And I'm absolutely convinced that this if not the key to the door, but it's one of the main keys to the door to really unlock the full potential of circularity around plastics. So that's -- and obviously, with the fact that two such a major player are putting a very significant amount of money behind and not only in the first CCC, but also putting quite a lot of pressure on further development. This is something that we really take as a proxy for the true potential in this solution. So that's just a little bit around the high level why we are so excited about it. And I think it's quite important if you compare the previous -- I said the previous, now given that the new one is signed, arrangement that we had with Exxon really only provided Agilyx with a license revenue. Given that we now restructured it, Cyclyx to become a build and operate, we can see both revenue stream from license, but also that we participate in the economics that the Cyclyx Circularity Center will generate in the very first one, as you will see later on, it's at a modest level, given that we do not contribute any capital in the first one. But subsequently, you'll see a rapidly increased economics also for Agilyx. So this really unlocks the potential to make this a multiple unit expansion, so to speak, and also a much more profitable opportunity for Agilyx. So that's just summarizing this very quickly. And I think we move on where I think you take over here, Joe, to quickly take us through the highlights of Cyclyx specifically.
Yes. Thanks, Jan. And good morning and afternoon, everybody. Happy to be here. It is really an exciting time for Cyclyx. So I'll walk through a little bit of sort of what the status is, how we're positioned, and the opportunities for growth that we have. But sort of recall, at least from our perspective, I think we fancy ourselves to have a few unique capabilities. And we've been proving that out over the last 2.5 years since we started it up Cyclyx. Fundamentally, we sort of levered our ability to clinically profile plastics, and by doing so, we sort of understand chemically how to model to different product outcomes, whether that's into the existing mechanical recycling market, but more specifically to the advanced recycling market where it's just really difficult to find folks who are able to secure and preprocess feed for customer specifications. And our belief is that our key enabling technology is the profiling and the modeling. From there then, we actually can create custom blends, we take different products and we blend them together to try to meet a chemistry outcome for our customers who all have different needs and different technologies. And as well, you've probably heard us mention 10 to 90. So 10 to 90 our landfill diversion programs. So now that we have the capability of dealing with plastics in a way that's responsive to downstream advance recyclers, most of the plastic waste are still traveling to a landfill. And so we need to divert those. And there isn't a lot of industry support inside the incumbents to sort of do those things because they, in fact, don't know how to take some of these materials and find recycling pathways. So we've been, for the last 1.5 years, developing landfill deferral programs that have been quite successful based on the metrics we've provided for them. So now we sit here with our capabilities proven out, and we're ready to scale. And to Jan's point before, the prior approach allowed us to scale in some regards. But this new profile allows us to scale pretty significantly. And that all comes around developing what we're calling circularity centers. So these circularity centers really help us achieve industrial scale. The first one is of a size that is quite significant, which we'll talk to here in a minute. But it is sort of the combination of this investment approach that we have, changing the business model, Agilyx is private placement, all really allow us to grow significantly. So if you just sort of look at what that could mean from an addressable market perspective, if you just look at the 100-plus metric ton potential that we have. We're talking about one facility at 178,000 inbound tons per year. If you just look at what that could mean that's upwards of just under 600 plants. So the growth here is pretty significant, and we'll talk a little bit about the economics here in a few minutes. If you go to the next slide, I'll comment a little bit about what we just did with this transaction. It's really sort of a 3-tier transaction in a sequential manner. If you look at this slide, the bookends the first and the third half, everything to do with Lyondell and Exxon. In essence, we sold 33% of Cyclyx interest to them, both were post transaction, Agilyx maintains a 50% stake in 25-25 to each of those companies. We did it through an equity sale, but then also a non-dilutive special contribution to fund the plants through an FID. The FID is actually not yet announced. All the work has been completed, and we expect that to be announced pretty soon. But in total, if you look at the gross economics of it, we sold 33% for $135 million, which is oriented to funding the first plant and its entirety, both in terms of its capital as well as the working capital needed to get there. So you can sort of understand what that implies for valuations and how that trickles down to the equity ownership. The third is what just happened almost simultaneously with Agilyx where they did a private placement that's helping them sort of restructure both in terms of the base business and to support further and expand on the support for the Cyclyx business. And so a little bit more we'll talked about that in a few slides going forward. So if we go to the next slide, I'll transition a little bit to the facility itself and then talk about the economic implications of what we just did. So this facility, the CCC#1 in the Houston area, this is a first-of-a-kind facility. So although a lot of the mechanical preprocessing steps are common in the industry, there's quite a few unique aspects of this relative to how we embed the data analytics and the AI programs that allow us to move very large volumes and then custom compound to a consistent quality. But part of that is the fact that it's all plastics, right? I mean, again, only 8% of plastics is recycled today at any given maturity, and that's because they're cherry-picking the waste stream to those high-quality materials. We're trying to divert as much, if not all, plastics from landfill and then use our approach to find recycling options. And that has to be sort of embedded into these facilities. And so the biggest difference you'll see over and above the technology that sort of is the brain behind allowing it to work, is the custom compounding. You'll see at the end of this, anybody who's familiar with the plastic recycling facility. If you go towards the end, you're going to see many, many silos, which would then hold lots of different waste characterized plastics but then we mix for our customers' benefit. And we do have some flexibility, and the flexibility in how we can mix those. So this is a significant approach. But what's really nice about this is how we sort of financed it. I've been doing this a long time. I've helped commercialize with Waste Management, 15 different environmental conversion technologies and trying to find financing, both in terms of at waste management but also through start-ups and trying to finance first-of-a-kind facilities is a very difficult task. And certainly, the sponsor equity takes a disproportionate risk. In this case, there are some risks. There are some market-based waste plastic risk. There's certainly no mature exchange pricing that's stable. I mean the advanced recycling market is in its infancy. And so this has been structured in a way where Lyondell and Exxon are trading off some preference and pricing, which we can talk to in return, absorbing all of the risks for Agilyx. And so Agilyx could have gone to the market and raised 100% dilutive capital and then take a lot of market risk. In this case, I think we have the best of both worlds. We've got some partners who have demand that is very, very significant, well beyond the first one, which we'll talk to in the next slide. But also willing to take the risk because their sustainability goes around the circular economy and so robust that this makes sense for them. And so the structure that was put in place is quite unique for my background and pretty exciting. Next slide. We'll talk a little bit about the economics. It does get a little confusing. We need to be a little careful here about not either giving guidance or any kind of antitrust around pricing input cost, things like that. But so what we try to do here was profile over time sequentially what this could look like for Agilyx and Cyclyx. CCC#1 is unique because it is first-of-a-kind facility and because of the risk trade-off, we have this approach where we have basically a cost-plus approach for Lyondell and Exxon. And what you see here in the first column on the last year 1 or 2 slipstreams of profitability, which are represented to be cash, right? So down below, you have Agilyx's royalty per plant for each size, they'll grew $2.5 million. And so you can see that culminate over the years. And then up above, there is a management fee that Cyclyx will be charging, which obviously Agilyx would obtain 50% of. That's pretty much limited here in the first one because of the risk profile. On the second through 5, so there is an ambition to do 5 very quickly. And in those situations, Exxon, Lyondell have been added on in addition to those base economics, the ability to have a return on capital for any plants that Agilyx would envision to invest in itself and take a 50% ownership stake in. And in those instances, for the sake of ease of modeling, we put the return on invested capital at 15%, but it needs to be investable under the terms of the agreement. And so you can see here that within a pretty comfortable line of sight, what those free cash flows in earnings would look like for Agilyx. What we want to do, though, is give you a sense of why we're so excited about this because the change in the model also allows us to develop a licensing approach, either for any individual member who doesn't want to do, you could envision one of the members wanting to build one of these facilities maybe in a geographic area that the others don't or maybe more to develop a scale that they're not interested in. So we allowed some flexibility with the licensing approach, but it also includes selling those directly to the rest of the industry and third-party competitors to each of the members. Being careful does not sort of judge what the market is. If you were to go to most of the waste and recycling companies today and asked to develop a program where they added plastics that they don't traditionally take for them to retrofit their facilities and for them to get the sufficient profitability and absorb the risk of that, you're going to see numbers 2 and 3x higher than what we believe Cyclyx has experienced in our own cost-plus model. And so if we were to think about building licensed facilities and charged market-based rates, if we put a discount off of what we think the future discounts -- what the future market rates are, you've got a lift of about $30 million in gross profits for that same facility. So you can see that if we were to build 5 of the same types of facilities, the numbers on the left would be substantial with Agilyx in particular, were the investor in those plants. And of course, we would envision bringing on project debt right now where these numbers have the members financing these. But so there's -- with financial engineering there's ways to optimize that even further. Next slide. And so why Exxon? Why Lyondell? Well, Exxon, we were very excited about a few years ago when we closed their deal because they have stated missions and forecast about what they wanted to achieve relative to their circular economy goals. And in fact, they have been -- they have set up their first facility, and we've been supplying that for the last 2.5 years. Well, Lyondell is the same. I think part of the challenge that the whole advanced -- the technology companies within the advanced recycling industry are facing is what Jan referred to as a limitation of the feed. And so you're seeing a bit of a slowdown there. In this case, both Lyondell and Exxon are very active in the space. They've announced very aggressive goals, 500-kta in the short-term for each company. And in fact, by the end of the decade, both exceed well over 1 million. And so for us, this helps us seed the market. It helps us create new landfill diversion programs, which are absolutely critical for us to achieve scale in the first instance. It supplies us capital for a handful of plants. It allows us to liberate the business model that allows us to support others in the field. But really, they're demand by themselves. I mean I would go so far to say they're leading the industry and how active they are. So we're super excited about this deal and how it was structured and the fact that Lyondell has joined Exxon and Agilyx. And we really do expect this to scale pretty significantly. So with that, I think we're going to transition over to Carsten to give a bit of an update on the Agilyx core business.
Yes, I'll be very happy to. Now that we have sorted out all the feedstock, it's time to talk about the conversion business. But as most of you know, one of the key difference to Agilyx and one of the unique selling propositions in the conversion space is that we have been around for almost 20 years, and we have electrified our reactor. We have a lower carbon footprint, a good LCA in that space. We have a technology that is very robust and flexible to take different types of plastic unlike our competitors in the space that hone in either on styrene or on mixed waste plastic. So that's the main different position. And also, we have a competitive advantage in what we call waste-to-product. Some of you have recently seen analysis out criticizing the space of paralysis proposes a bit from doing a kind of an [ overall oil ] that doesn't fit anywhere. But what you've seen with Agilyx during the past year is that we kind of like focus in and continue to be very, very laser focused on what we call waste-to-product space. This is where we convert either a specific type of plastic or mixed waste plastic into a final product. So we take polystyrene waste and we make a styrene monomer that goes back to polystyrene. We do that with our partner, Technip, and TruStyrenyx, and this is a very promising area for us. The other key projects that we're working on is with BioBTX, that's the whole aromatic space. Benzene, toluene, xylene, we take mixed waste plastic and take it back to aromatics. So no hydro treatment, no -- nothing in this process. It goes back to a sellable product. Mitsubishi is the same thing, we take plexiglass, and we developed a precursor for plexiglass called MMA, and we make plexiglass again. So that circular economy space. That's where we advantage, that's where we're hone in all our efforts in this asset-light business model with our conversion business. So nothing changes in terms of being asset-light, but really the focus being on that waste-to-product space. And you probably sit and think, yes, what's your key priorities. Now obviously, we need to move products to the construction phase. This is where Agilyx makes money on license, equipment sales. We are targeting 3 projects a year now in this space waste-to-product. And obviously, our near-term resources and organization is really focused in on that space. On the right-hand side, you see a couple of examples. You know that Toyo Styrene is in construction in Japan. It's going to start up early in 2024. We're very excited about that. That's a new project for us and really a technology proof point, another one. INEOS, we have the TruStyrenyx development. We have the final stage on the engineering to be completed in the first quarter of 2024. That's another key step for us. Kumho, which we've talked about for a while, difficult to negotiate with, but we are still going strong in this. We are in license discussion. As a matter of fact, we're heading to Korea this week to talk to Kumho. And Mitsubishi, the partnership there. What's going on there right now is that samples are being set out to customers based on Agilyx produced MMA, and those evaluations are ongoing, and there will be a decision how to progress this project by the end of the year. Last but not least, what I talk about is BioBTX, fast engineering underway. We've really been able to advance this project quite quickly. We're already in licensing discussion with BioBTX and in the final engineering stage. So again, last but not least, we are dropping the ocean, the conversion business. You see down at your lower hand, right-hand side of the slide, basically, the opportunity for Agilyx. We could build 400 plants that we would still be a drop in the ocean. So the opportunity is really huge. But we believe the way to move forward is waste-to-product and not waste to some kind of intermediate that is then need further treatment downstream. So I'll stop that because you're probably more interested in the Cyclyx deal that we announced, but we thought it was important just to tell you about the recent development in the conversion business. Jan, I think I hand back to you.
Yes. No, thank you very much, Carsten and to Joe an excellent well presented. Thank you very much. And I'm sure we'll come back to both of you in the Q&A. And before we go to the Q&A, I just want to touch upon what we also announced last week, which is the fact that Tim Stedman, our CEO, has decided to step down for personal reasons. He has been with us for 3 years, and we really want to take the opportunity to thank Tim for the efforts and the achievements during those 3 years. We are in a very different space today and place. In compared to where we were 3 years ago. And again, Joe no shadow over where you brought the company, but the Tim has certainly picked up the rates and move it further forward. And I will be stepping up to be a working Chairman, I cannot be an Executive Chairman according to governance in Norway. Tim will stay until the end of the year. So we have a very seamless and good cooperation now over the next 2 months. We have a search launched in the market. So obviously, we will be pushing hard to make good progress on that. And then also I want to highlight the three gentlemen that you see to the right, that are all on the call, extremely experienced and coming in with tremendous CVs all three of them, and they are obviously saying in their respective positions as well as the rest of management. So we really feel very, very confident that we can handle this transition into a new CEO leadership here without any hiccups in the organization and the pursuit of our business objectives. So I just wanted to touch upon that. Just summarizing, I think what you've heard and hopefully, what you take away that we have a very strong and competitive advantage in the feedstock sourcing and with the conversion pathway as Carsten had just went through, there is few if any, in the market that really has this end to end. I like the way you sometimes describe it, Carsten, from yogurt cup to yogurt cup, we really go from the waste product that is collected from household to the monomer that then can produce a new yogurt cup. And I think that's something -- that capability and that knowledge is something that we really -- we stand out and being quite unique. And as Joe, you told me several times, when I sort of been in my learning curve of what we do. We're using standard equipment for the circularity centers. There's no unique hardware as such, but it's the uniqueness, it's the competence and know-how that we have collected over 20 years and then the artificial intelligence models that we have built around that are further developing now. And I think that's the strength that we're basing ourselves on standard technology that is available out there today. And as that advances, we will continue to take advantage of that in our circularity centers. It's not on us to develop that. This is something we can benefit and ride on that way, so to speak, from open market development. Strong management, as I just touched upon and really a strong global understanding on where the plastic waste market needs to move. And I think the fact -- I could just underline what Joe said, I haven't seen in my 40 years plus in the industry, a more derisked opportunity. And moving from more or less incubation, we have proof of our solution with toll manufacturing companies in the Houston area today. So it's not as if we go from complete incubation, but not far from it to full industrial scale in 1 step backed by two such a blue chip companies. They put the investment forward and they guarantee the offtake. I mean it's an absolutely phenomenal outcome of this negotiation, and I think very much a testament to the strength of the solution that they see. And I think also coming back to what Joe highlighted earlier, we have the opportunity together with these two powerful partners, but we also have the possibility to develop with other partners. There are many knocking on the doors. I think there is a good mid-2-digit number, Joe, in your pipeline of projects and companies knocking on our door to develop a similar type of solutions. And we can do that full-blown build on operate if we would like, and we think that's the right way. We can also do it in a lighter version with project finance or a larger portion of financing from the partners and thereby not requiring the same amount of capital to be put forward. And then obviously, there will be a negotiation around the returns, depending on which of these models that you actually apply. So there are a multitude of ways and opportunities, how we can structure our future businesses. And I think that's important to bear in mind when you look upon it from a pure investment and return perspective for Agilyx as a shareholder. And last but not least, perhaps in detail, but I'm not sure if you touched upon it, Joe. I think what is so important with CCC is, they are applicable regardless of what the conversion technology is. So this could be for mechanical recycling. This can be for all different kinds of chemical recycling. So this is sort of at the front end, sitting in front of all these different conversion technologies, which, by the way, we do not look upon as competitive technologies to us in Agilyx and the conversion technology, Carsten just described. Mechanical recycling has a very important role to play in the overall solution to circularity of plastics. But there -- and by the way, it's probably the best solution when you can use it. But you can only take that technology so far, and there are many restraints and constraints on that technology. And that is where chemicals and advanced recycling come into play. So again, coming back to -- there is no one silver bullet to solve this issue when it comes to the conversion but stretching the imagination here a little bit. There is one -- at least one silver bullet for the waste management side and that's Cyclyx. So I think I'll end it on that. Anything, Russ, that you would like to highlight in terms of the structure of the transaction, et cetera. And perhaps just mentioned two words about the fund raise that we did very successfully at the end of the week before we open up for Q&A. Sorry to ambush with that.
No worries, Jan. Thank you so much. I think you guys summarized it really well. I think what's really exciting for further company is the fact that we've unlocked the potential to build further CCCs in the manner we choose as a corporation. So that is very powerful. Whereas before, we were pretty much locked in with ExxonMobil, and this really opens up the opportunity, as Joe and Jan mentioned, to unlock a lot of value for the company going forward. We're really exciting. The private placement was very successful at the end of last week. We are successful raising the equivalent of USD 20 million. So fantastic news and the use of funds -- for those funds are really going to help to build out the structure to support the CCCs going forward as well as to help us to continue to improve on the Agilyx R&D and to continue to enhance our portfolio of offerings on the conversion side. So very excited. This was a great success for the company, and we're really looking forward to building this out in the near term.
Thanks, Russ. And according to our own predictions, et cetera, that should have us funded through 2024. So that's sort of the outlook that we see from that. So with that, I think I hand back to you, Louise, if you kind of sort of lead us through the Q&A session.
Yes, very happy to do so. [Operator Instructions] There you go, Adam. How do I unmute you? Ana, can you help me.
I believe everyone in fact, is unmuted now.
Adam is unmuted. Go ahead, Adam. Perfect.
A couple of questions if I may. First one sort of general one. Just obviously, the JVs has now gone from 2 partners to 3. Have you made any material changes to the governance arrangements. So I think two things in particular, how are the voting arrangements agreed? Is it 50%, 25%, 25% or is it 1/3 each? And then also, if another part of came in, when you talk about potential new partners, that may not be true at the JV. But if a partner came in -- a new partner came in, does is Agilyx first to dilute or would it be subject to negotiation? And then if there's anything else material you can give me around the new JV agreement, assuming there is one that would be really interesting. And then just a second question, just on the further development of the CCCs, where do you see them likely happening geographically? Are we going to see material changes into either waste mix or feedstock mix and also particularly, you've been sort of outlined timetable for CCC#1. We'll -- I'll be expecting that will be accelerated on future projects. Would be good to get a feel for that.
Do you want to take the lead here, Joe? Or is there anything you want me to address?
Sure. I'm happy to do it. I think I have 4 questions there. So relative to the governance, obviously, the governance changed. We still have a proper Board and that Board essentially represents the shareholder relationships. There has been some change into super majority. So obviously, some of the major things around future financings and capital costs, sort of escalate above the Board to the members. And in some cases, they're pro rata, in some cases, they're unanimous. However, some of the commercial elements around the governance are going to be put in sort of a typical delegation of authorities. So things like licensing, there will be a templated set of heads of terms that will be defined that the Board and the members can't necessarily block as long as those things are met. So I think the governance is a bit different than it was before. But a lot of time was spent making sure that each member had flexibility in how they can participate or not in future activity both in terms of their willingness to or being mandated to do something. So I think there's a good balance in the governance for the members and for the company to pursue its commercial activity. As it relates to future...
Sorry to interrupt you there, Joe. But just to build on that before you move on to the next one. I think it's quite important to point out of that. You could envision of scenario where Exxon and Lyondell are only doing this as long as it benefits themselves and wants to basically curtail or stop the joint venture from doing anything beyond that. And what Joe just mentioned now is very much a testament to that. That is not the case. Both of them want to see this as a way to really drive circularity for the industry, not only for themselves. They feel both very confident that they have competitive advantage in the downstream steps, and are not looking for Cyclyx to be the sole competitive advantage that they have in the value chain. So they are very much open for us driving that either indirectly within Cyclyx or as Joe just touched upon, that we've already identified exactly how a licensing model should go. So that Agilyx, for example, can on the basis of the license from the [indiscernible] company, go out and develop a CCC together with somebody else. So that's -- I hope that sets the frame and the spirit in which the joint venture has now been restructured. Sorry, Joe, to interrupt you there.
Yes. No. Important clarification. It's excellent, thanks. Relative to dilution, there is a willingness to sort of entertain additional members. It's not intended. There's no active process for it. But the way the current deal is structured, there would be sort of a pro rata dilution for any additional equity sales. I think our intent though is to really try to focus more on project financing more than trying to replicate this. It's great that we have two big incumbents, the degree of difficulty just increases quite a bit when you add more and more. But that to say, there are some non-petrochem companies who have expressed interest over time that could be interesting for some of the other core competencies that we need to develop. And so we'll entertain those at the time, but there is no active solicitation at the moment. Relative to the geographic diversity of the CCC, there's sort of two things going on. We obviously will focus in on wherever our members want to be. And of course, those members have concentrated large-scale assets in certain geographies that are not sort of equitable across the U.S. or any other international market. And so we'll continue -- Exxon, for example, could build several of these to support Gulf Coast activity, and we certainly would do that. But we also -- Cyclyx has an ambition to geographically be distributed less because of the CCC activity, and more because the more geographic expense we have, the more successful we'll be in setting up national take-back programs. One of the challenges that you have, and it's been historical challenges, this chicken or the egg, why is the local waste and recycling system going to change and aggregate new plastics if it doesn't have infrastructure to go to in the reverse history, why is someone going to build something in Chicago if there's no ratable feed. Well, now that we have this anchor activity in Houston, we have many, many growing numbers of take-back programs, both on the commercial side and significant interest on the municipal side based on the work that has been done with the city of Houston by allowing us to now build facilities in other Metropolitan areas, it allows us to start to scale those 10 to 90 take-back and landfill deferral programs pretty significantly. So we'll be doing both. We will be doing several CCCs in close proximity but we'll also be trying to sponsor some that allow us to expand over geographies pretty quickly. Relative to the cadence, we expect FID to be announced fairly shortly for CCC#1, the engineering is complete. What's nice about these facilities is they don't necessarily need to go after greenfield development. We can use albeit large-scale, 500,000 square feet under roof, but these are light industrial warehousing. So our ability to develop now that we have the base system -- and we got 3 designs for 3 different sizes can happen pretty quickly. And it's our expectation within the next quarter or 2, the next one will be announced as well. So we have -- and as Jan says, we've got letters of interest from upwards of almost 10 other companies in hand as well. So our expectation of follow-on activity will be very short term.
We have any more hands.
I can't see any more hands at the moment.
Or anything in the chat.
Nothing in the chat. And no more questions. Adam just raises hand. You're asking another one, Adam?
Yes. So I thought, I would...
I wasn't sure if you put it down or not, that's way.
Yes, sure. No. I thought I'd just come back obviously, on the future programs, the talk of project financing. I'm guessing you probably had discussions already, but on the next 2, 3, 4 projects, what sort of level of gearing do you think we might be likely to expect? I'm guessing we're not moving right away to kind of a full end of the kind funding. It will be somewhere in between first-of-a-kind and end-of-a-kind, but It'd be really good to hear your views.
Well, so it's interesting. We've had quite a few discussions and I'd probably defer to Louise on these. We -- Cyclyx itself has not prospected project-oriented capital at this point prior to this Agilyx and Exxon are looking to sort of maintain negotiating positions. But we've had lots of interest in the project-level financing. The benefit here is that the first kind is fully [ cauterized ] by the risk. What's really nice, though, is that over time, the offtakers, particularly Lyondell and Exxon to participate in the offtake agreements that allows us to show up just traditional project financing in a typical 40-60 split or what have you. So we're not anticipating that to be a challenge. And I think, frankly, it won't take the amount of time to go from first-of-kind plant to financeability. We're already generating feedstocks. And although it's not at the type of scale that we're talking about here, it is certainly the largest scale that we can see in the industry. And so we've got the capability to do, if we had to right now, 60,000, 70,000 tonnes a year. So we're already at interesting scale. And most of the equipment is off the shelf. So really, we think we can go straight to sort of typical infrastructure, engineering, financial engineering.
Yes. I mean I think what we've said, Adam, is that for the second CCC, the agreement is that it's equity into Cyclyx, but how Agilyx finances its share into Cyclyx could be through a variety of different mechanisms that doesn't have to be shareholder equity and Agilyx to go into Cyclyx in that form. And then Joe is right, for CCC#3 and onwards, Cyclyx is free to look at kind of leveraging at the unit level, shall we say.
And I think you touched upon that, Joe, that I mean we have the 15% IRR that is locked in with the agreement as it stands right now on the CCC#2 and onwards. But there is also the opportunity to stand that up quite significantly if we go outside and do things on our own or with other partners with I mean, ballpark of $30 million, an equivalent size facility as we're talking about with CCC#1, and $30 million cash for Cyclyx and Agilyx. So I think the upside in that sense is quite significant. And the way, I think, as an investor, and I am an investor, I've invested twice now into Agilyx participate in this most recent round as well. I look upon this as this is a springboard, this is sort of making a very long runway of ample. And I think that's very much the way one should look upon these investments.
And I think I would add to that, we have had a lot of outreach with investor partners that infrastructure investors that are interested in. We haven't had a lot of detailed dialogue because of this transaction, but now that it's opened up the transaction, I think we'll see a lot of interest in CCC#3 and above. So we're really excited about that. And investors are very interested in this kind of investment, with especially at a 15% IRR and above, I think they're very interested. So more to come on that.
Still no other questions. So I will hand it back to you Jan to close the...
Yes. No, thank you very much. Thanks, everybody, for taking your time. I hope this was helpful to sort out some of questions and some of the moving parts, perhaps that you have come across from the announcements last week. But with both the deal itself and the capital raise and obviously also the change in management. But like I said, there's absolutely zero drama around that piece in itself good cooperation and seamless transitioning to the future here. So thank you very much, feel free to reach out if there are follow-up questions, and I know that they could very well be. Feel free to reach out primarily to Louise and she will direct you within the company to myself, Russ, Carsten, and Joe to make sure that we get back to you quickly and in case there's any questions or concerns that you have. But I highly appreciate the time that you took and thanks to the team members as well. Well done, as usual, much appreciate it. Thanks, everybody.
Thanks.
Thanks everyone.
Thanks everyone.
Thank you, bye.
Thank you, bye.
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