AIA Engineering Limited (AIAENG) Earnings Call Transcript
August 13, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to AIA Engineering Limited Q1 FY '26 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to the management. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you so much, moderator. A very warm welcome to everyone. This is Kunal. And as always, I've got Sanjay bhai on the call here with me, and both of us will walk you through the results for the first quarter of financial year '25-'26 and a broad update on the business. I will start with headline numbers for the business for this quarter and then we'll get into Q&A. We produced 59,500 tonnes, and we sold 60,156 tonnes in the quarter. This is flat as compared to first quarter last year. and from a sales standpoint and compares to 68,000 tonnes that we did in the fourth quarter last year. This translates to about INR 1,026 crores of revenue and a realization of about INR 170 per kilo. We've got INR 12.93 crores of other operating income, which includes export benefits and another INR 108 crores of nonoperating income and all of that translating to an EBITDA of about INR 420.39 crores at 40.46% EBITDA and a profit after tax of INR 305 crores. That compares to INR 259 crores of PAT in first quarter last year and INR 285 crores in the sequential fourth quarter of last year. Moving on our other income of INR 108 crores includes INR 88 crores of treasury income, which is up from INR 73 crores from first quarter last year and INR 73 crores of fourth quarter last year. There is a INR 19 crore foreign exchange income, both combined taking the nonoperating other income portion to INR 108 crores. Working capital largely continues on track. There's a slight increase in finished goods. [indiscernible] flat. It's broadly flat. Raw material has slightly reduced. Receivable remains flat. So overall, working capital in line with every quarter. From a tonnage standpoint, again, flat number is comparable to first quarter, 36,000-odd in mining and 23,000-odd in non-mining, which is cement and utilities for a total of 60,000 tonnes, almost in line with the first quarter last year. A 10,000-tonne reduction in mining volume compared to fourth quarter and a slight increase in the non-mining portion. Our net cash stands at INR 4,083 crores. Our investment plan for this year, we've spoken about plants in China and Ghana. Both those plants are in -- we are looking to acquire land, we are applied for all sorts of permissions. I think end of next quarter or the quarter within the next 2 quarters, we'll share more updates on, because it's our first time going out sort of India, and we are learning the procedures for both planned acquisition as well as various preproduction approvals and both appear to be a little long drawn than what we had originally estimated. So for now, we continue with both the plants, and we'll share a little more light about what we are doing with that in next 1 or 2 quarters. Apart from that, we are continuing to make a small investment in renewable power. We are at about 38 megawatts as of date, and we are adding another 60-odd megawatt, taking it to about 100 megawatt-plus and when all of it gets commissioned in next -- in this fiscal year, almost 55% of our power will come from green sources, from renewable sources. So we are very proud of that of not only achieving the green milestone for our energy consumption, but also helping us in reduced cost on that account. We'll be doing in addition to that for the rest of the year, and I'm not still sharing the number for what I'll be spending for our plants outside of India as far as CapEx is concerned. But outside of that, we expect about INR 50 crores of non general maintenance, some land, some warehouse, all of that and about INR 40 crores for the renewable -- balance part of the renewables. So about INR 100 crores spend in addition to anything that we spend on China and Ghana is a capital protection for this year. Lastly, one good news came this quarter was related to the Brazil [indiscernible] review where the department has reduced the CVD component. The antidumping portion of it got discontinued because the total duty was 11.8% CVD and the antidumping portion, antidumping got terminated, and the CVD portion is now down from 6.5% to 2.9%. Total duty now on antidumping account is at 2.9%. That's a big relief and validation of what we've been telling not only authorities in various countries, but also our customers that we absolutely follow fair pricing strategy and open pricing practices. And that's something that it's taken a lot of effort to put things in perspective to make sure that the case is heard appropriately. And the same thing is what we're doing with other jurisdictions where there is some sort of conversation on the duty front. The U.S. antidumping stands at 9.8%, 10.07%, about 10%. But of course, there is a much larger from tariffs that we fall under the -- all of us will take 50% duty if it continues as it is. To that extent, there is some uncertainty on the U.S. accounts, but we are in discussions with all our customers. As we speak, most part of our volume in U.S. continues. Customers want an alternate source for this product. So beyond that, beyond customers telling us will continue for near term, we may not be able to share more commentary as we speak. We would rather wait and watch, see where this settles down and have a little better view on what happens to our U.S. business.
Just to add just to add this 50% duty that we are currently saying is nothing to do with the recent reciprocal tariff announced by the U.S. President, Mr. Trump. This was already applicable to us earlier under Section 232 from January, I think from February, initially 25% and then about 1 month ago increased to 50%. So I mean just to clarify, this has nothing to do with the current new wave of tarrifs, we just -- because this we were anyway paying, customers are paying even as on today, this duty plus this 10-odd percent antidumping, which Kunal talked about and the supplies continue.
Exactly. I think Sanjay bhai any other [indiscernible].
Sure, okay. Of course, preempting a common question that how do you look at this current scenario? Because we have been doing around 60,000-odd tonnes of sales, we did about 250,000 tonnes, 255,000 tonnes last year. What could be the outlook for this year, et cetera. Preempting those questions, I want to just make it very clear that as we had indicated even in the last call, we are absolutely clear and bullish on the prospects of conversion for the large number of mills that we are looking at from the [indiscernible] to our high-growth solutions. With this and tremendous [indiscernible] even in terms of restrategizing our whole approach has gone into it. We are working with a very large number of mining customers right now at a fairly advanced stage of negotiation. And we do expect quite a bit of conversion-related news to start coming in the coming quarter Therefore, from a very clear-cut management standpoint, we are not at all worried and we do expect to return back to a decent level of volume growth from the next fiscal. Having said that, this process is taking a lot of time. And therefore, this year, we feel that we might still end up the third fiscal year with a near flat situation. However, maybe next 1 or 2 quarters, lot of things are happening, and we'll be able to give some clarity. But as we speak, we are very clear. We don't see any structural issue. It's just a restrategizing and now, again, going back on the track of normal growth, which we expect to start coming from next fiscal with complete clarity. This fiscal we want to wait and watch for maybe 1 or 2 quarters. But we are still -- our target is to see what growth we can achieve over last year, but we have no certainty or clarity, and therefore, we are not giving any specific growth guidance for this year. I think with this, I'll request the moderator to open the house for Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Bhoomika Nair from DAM Capital.
Yes, you mentioned in the end that there would be kind of a flattish volume. I remember that in the previous call, we had mentioned about some growth and the benefits of the conversion efforts that we have taken to kind of start playing out sometime in this year, at least. So in...
I iterated that, I'm sorry, I'm interrupting you. I said we are not giving any specific guidance about the growth in this year and our targets. And I said that we'll probably come back to you by end of Q2, let us see. We have not said [Foreign Language], but lot of efforts are going on, and I wanted to clarify that 100% from next year, we are on track. This year [indiscernible] little bit more or [indiscernible].
Okay. Okay. Fair point. From a U.S. perspective, given that there will be the 50% duty, do you think our volumes will be at risk if you were to come into a play?
Can you repeat last part? I couldn't hear.
I was saying that if the 50% tariff was to come into play as anticipated, assuming no relief on that aspect for a minute, would that mean that our volumes would get impacted out there on the U.S. bit of volume?
No. So Bhoomika, as I clarified two things. One, this last round of 50% is reciprocal tariff and not sector alone. Sectoral tariff [Foreign Language] plus last month, it was increased to 25%, the whole world knows. Correct.
Yes, yes.
Today also my clients, my customers are paying 50% sectoral plus 10% CVD and they're continuing mine. Obviously, the negotiations around the corner, there must be [Foreign Language] whether a part of it you will bear or not. So that is a continuous dialogue, which our salespeople are doing. And therefore, our supply [indiscernible] as we see continue to go a little halting, but they continue. Normally, take [indiscernible] the people [indiscernible]. Also in the hope sooner rather than they say, there will be some -- we were noting of BTA happening. People were hopeful that [Foreign Language] as we all know, the whole world knows, this has now become a little political, more political rather than really economically the rational decision-making process [Foreign Language]. But as we speak, people are saying, that's all I can say at this point in time.
Okay. Fair point. Understood. So the other thing is in terms of our China and Ghana, you mentioned that there are -- it is taking a little longer than anticipated because of the approvals, et cetera, and land acquisitions as such. So what would be a reasonable time line to look at for -- if I understand correctly, China will be first operational followed by Ghana. What would be the right time line to look at for that plant to be operational?
That's what I shared that our hope was to start with that initial land and approval this quarter, it looks like it's a little -- it's much longer drawn out than what we had imagined, right? It's our first time going in there, which is where it looks like we will -- I'll be able to share a plan, hopefully, next quarter or fair chance it goes to the quarter after that. And which will be exactly what happened. I can't share 12 months from approval and the approval is maybe 15 months away, right? So just give us a [indiscernible] we'll share a little more [indiscernible] actual our teams out there, lot of work is going on, so that work in progress is there.
Okay. Fair point. Lastly, if I look at the margin profile this quarter has been quite healthy. So anything that you can call out in terms of what attributed to this margin being sharp here?
Okay. So Bhoomika, one, if you knock off the territory income [indiscernible] of INR 19-odd crores, we are talking about, about 29% to 30% operating margin, which [indiscernible] definitely agree that this is [indiscernible] slightly on the higher side, there are 2 factors [Foreign Language] tax provision [Foreign Language]. Point number one. Point number two, there is a good, very good product mix that has also given us a tailwind. Now therefore, I would believe that on an operational margin this 29% or 30% cannot be made as a sustainable long term. Of course, we are talking of 23%, 24% as a minimum. I believe we want to stick to that as a very, very sustainable [Foreign Language]. We are doing better. I believe we might do better, but let's take it at that.
The next question comes from the line of Priyankar Biswas from JM Finance.
And my first question please is, again, coming back to the -- from the previous questions, like -- this very high level of pricing that we are seeing on -- I mean, almost at INR 170 per kg, do you expect that to sustain at least in a very near term, I mean compared to forged it seems to be a very high level of premium. So what is your take on it?
I think realization when we have always maintained is not just a margin reflector, it's also the product mix that we do in a quarter. You -- there are -- there is also the price pass-through with this quarter has seen freight reduction, some level of freight reduction, some level of raw material reduction, right? So some of these costs have reduced, which will get passed on over a period. So two things have happened this quarter, price, product mix, leading to a little higher realization and lower cost. And hence, you're seeing that price -- there is an abnormal margin this quarter, which we think will normalize over the next 2 quarters.
Okay, understood. And also, if I may come back, like I remember in the previous calls, you used to highlight like significant opportunities in Latin America, particularly in copper. So what is our progress there currently? I mean what are the states or any prospects that we are looking at for near term [indiscernible]?
I think we are status quo there like Sanjay bhai was explaining the previous participant, our efforts are on [Foreign Language] right? We are on it. We are making all efforts towards it. We remain excited and confident about it. We hope to get back to growth stage soon. No, no. There have been breakthroughs. We are hoping that, that culminates into something meaningful that we can speak about. We have decided to speak about it after we get that breakthrough rather than positing it about and when and how because it's been deferred for some time, right? So we are hoping that it converts into a contract and a tangible order and hoping that, that gate opens up for further volume.
Yes, I hope so as well, let's say, within the next couple of years, maybe you see some volumes. And just last one question from my side. previous year in FY '25, in some of the calls, you had mentioned that in certain mining geographies, there were some excess inventory that was there of grinding media. So that kind of led to sort of a destocking thing. So is it behind us? So has those volumes kind of resumed?
Yes, -- there are 2, 3 different things that were happening, 2 customers going to a restocking, they're back to -- that volume looks to be back, that will normalize, yes.
The next question comes from line of Devang Shah from D.D Enterprise.
Yes. Am I audible?
Yes.
Sir, I'm an individual investor. I have some 2, 3 minor queries only. Regarding the cash we are holding on the books, is it for Welcast because the Welcast buyback was not gone through. So any plan to like utilize the same cash, which we are holding on the books?
No, no, no. Devang, I think there is some confusion here. Welcast never had a new buyback, it was a delisting attempt, which was not successful. And that was a very, very insignificant amount actually. So this cash has been conserved for quite some time, considering the fact that we are very, very optimistic about the tremendous growth potential that the business has. And therefore, given the fact that at any point in time, some or the other opportunity could unfold, we are a bit conservative on in the past also, we have said that once we believe that the business has all the endeavors that we are giving for growth they are sort of stabilized. We will look at options for reducing the level of cash. But at this point in time, we agree we are admitting that we are maintaining a little higher level of cash that we want to do so more on a conservative basis given the potential that we have.
Okay. So the other question is -- like can you just tell me like who is going to be over there for next 5 to 10 years for the management controlling because the owner, whose age is very much near to the like retirement or something like that. So is there any follow-on plan also is there? Like we are going to get it from the management or you're going to get it like professional management outside of the company. So any follow-up plans for that?
[indiscernible]. There is no question of any management outside of the company. We are, in fact, professionalizing this for over last 3, 4 years. There's a very proper succession plan strategy, which is under implementation. The idea is that the whole management and the organization should run quickly on professional ground and all we have put that on. So there's no question of any outsider coming and running, et cetera, et cetera. But yes, a proper succession plann is under implementation, and it will be properly and formally implemented over a period of next 1, 1.5 to 2 years.
The next question comes from the line of Varun Jain from Dolat Capital.
So my first question was on power and fuel costs. So if I look at your power and fuel cost as a percentage of sales, from FY '20, it was close to 10%, and then it has been falling, so FY '22, 9.2% and now FY '25, 7%. So as the renewable power mix increases, where do you think this will settle?
Renewable, at this point in time, we are, I think, about 35% -- 30% to 35% as the renewable level in terms of our actual credit that we are getting in terms of generation through wind and solar in our billing. We are investing about -- we are putting another 100 -- total 60-plus megawatts, which will take us to about 100 megawatts. So maybe as said there should -- there is a very decent scope of further reduction. It should settle 7%, 7.5%.
Sir, 7% already in FY '25 only you reach. So it should go 5.5% or 6% right in the next 2 years? .
Yes, it should reduce further. It will reduce further. There will definitely be savings and you can take around 6% to 6.5%, you're right.
Okay. And my next question was, so your -- in this quarter, the margins were very good. One of the reasons you told us was that product mix favored realizations and the freight cost was low but was there also a raw material cost impact like ferrochrome or alloys you got at a cheaper price?
As always versus 100% pass-through. So you are very right. In a given quarter, if the prices have gone down, but our sales realizations are as per the previous agreed level, there would be a different push up on the margin. However, in the next quarter, so I explained to Bhoomika one of the earlier participants that yes, there are 2 factors. One is the knockoff, this other income, treasury income, et cetera, [Foreign Language] Now that is slightly higher than what we normally will do at about 27-odd percent. That is what the run rate with which we have been generally reporting. [Foreign Language] is about 20% against normally about 23%, 20.8%. So [Foreign Language] Second, there is a very clear-cut strong tailwind of the product mix. So the bigger cutting as we call them, [Foreign Language] and they are very profitable. So therefore, there is a little bit of a push. And then as Kunal explained, there will be a pass-through effect, which will come in the next quarter, which will normalize -- so [Foreign Language] we are okay. We should look at the normal level of margin only rather than extrapolating this.
Okay, sir. Got it. And my last question was, you have given some light on this, that you lost [indiscernible] 30,000 tonnes of destocking volumes were lost. So you said there were some recoveries out of that 30,000. How much have you recovered?
But, 30,000 was not a destocking account. There was one customer where we lost some volume. It was -- I think we will not be able to break down every single customer that way. But the destocking that customer is back up, the volume is back up now. Then there was a 8,000, 10,000, I think 7,000, 8,000, 10,000 tonnes difference on that account. There were other customers who have reduced purchases on that account. I'm not sure what is the current level there. But the billing process changed related to that one customer that's back to regular invoicing. So that will reflect full year, will be the full potential, that reduction has been made.
The next question comes from the line of Bhavin from SBI Mutual Fund.
Could you talk about the mill liners, we commissioned the plant, have you seen stabilization? How is that ramping up and if you could also talk about because that would have -- our strategy was to actually first get into the existing customers so that they know AIA, they know the AIA qualities that cross-sell opportunity was one that would have helped us.
That's true. Beyond the mill liner, as you know, we've also -- the metal mill liner, we've also added the rubber composite capability. So I think as we went into the space as we understood the overall offering. One is it has taken longer than what we imagined. But having said that, it has -- this was our time where we have rightsized our offering. We've done some amount of trials, right? Customer went back and tell your references of this core, of this metal or for this size of the mill. So a lot of that was who's going to give us the first trial [indiscernible] trial that allows us subsequent sale or subsequent size and or configuration. I think that's what's taken us time. I think -- so if you -- Sanjay bhai can speak more but for today's board meeting, for example, our 2 hour discussion just on the sharpness and the potential for the mill-lining solution, right? How, it's all coming together and the solution is for us to sell liners and grinding media together. So that's the customer we are looking at. So there were some customers where we had a chance to say that lining. But we want to keep the capacity available because we are fully committed and believing the solution where disproportionate benefit can accrue by using our design materials, our design and our material of linings along with grinding media. Both are in things to actually deliver the full solution that we are -- that we are pitching to customers. We are hoping that we have good news to share soon.
So just to add to what Kunal said, what we are bringing on table now is something very unique, which very honestly, mining industry has not seen before. And that solution has been already tried and tested in a couple of mines with excellent results. Based on that, we are now approaching the combination of a solution, which where cost becomes, I would say, secondary or tertiary. Primary, it is the grinding efficiency, the throughputs and how we are doing a combination of different types of liner designs very unique, which increases the grinding efficiency and the overall benefits which a mine gets is unimaginable. I think that is what is giving us tremendous confidence, very soon we should have some very good news to share. That's all I can say at this point in time.
What would be the utilization of the plant currently?
I think we moved some of older production also over -- on to this plant. So the utilization of the overall mill lining capacity would still be small. I don't think we'll be crossing 30,000 tonnes. It will still be between 25,000 and 30,000 tonnes for the full year mill liners. And capacity would be in addition -- in excess of 70,000, 75,000...
A little lower than around 40% to 50%.
Less than 40%, yes. Yes.
75 is the capacity and utilization...
[indiscernible] some part of it is fungible, but I would say we are doing between 25 and 30 of 75,000 tonne capacity broadly.
Okay. And just to understand directionally how different are the realizations for the mill liners versus the grinding media?
The selling price is, of course, a little more in middle liners because the cost of the alloy is different and there is a lot more subsequent effort, right? You need to do drawings, design, people need to travel for that, collect information, make wooden patents, then a sample piece gets made, then [indiscernible], then they're post-treatment. So the whole host of investment into patents and the engineering work that needs to be done before and after the product is made, is significantly higher, the cost on us, right? So when you factor all of that, the selling price does go higher than grinding media. But our margin on the selling price, I think, is largely comparable margin as a percentage is comparable.
Just trying to understand because if you see our weighted average, we've been doing $1,600, $1,700 a tonne. So I mean, just to get the differential in terms of realization?
But we also do vertical mill parts and that volume also shifts within vertical mill parts also, we do like 6 or 7 products. So prices vary from -- just to give you a sense from, let's say, INR 180 to maybe INR 400 a kilo, -- exactly because we do machining on some parts. There are many other parts where metal dies have to be made or metal fabricated parts have to be made for the wooden pattern. So the investment vary and the processing on the material varies and therefore, a preproduction varies. So that is where for us, it's sometimes difficult to break apart each piece and add up. And I understand that INR 170 in is a high figure. But like we said, that reflects a little bit of the higher dollar rupee and the product mix and the margin reflects some part of lower cost also.
And when we were looking at the export data country-wise, there was a very sharp drop in the volumes to Australia from 37,000 to 40,000-odd we saw in '22, '23 to all about 15,000-odd us. If you could just help us understand the reason for sharp drop to Australia?
My request is, let us take this off-line.
Okay. And the -- just last part when you said flattish volumes this year, there was some inventory drawdown that was their inventory correction by the customer, which was there about 8,000, 10,000 which we expect to normalize and there's some increase in the volumes that can happen from the mill liners as we see. And despite that, the flattish volume guidance, is that -- I mean, we just want to understand.
[indiscernible] 8,000 or 10,000 also is flat for us. The idea is that we have to get to 30,000, 40,000 tonnes and [indiscernible] still not volume increase that excites us. I think Sanjay bhai is without having to [indiscernible] 5 or 7 or 12, these are things [indiscernible] 10,000 tonnes, something else may go down, something else may come along. Overall this year as we look going forward with new contracts coming in later in the year, factoring all of that, it looks like it will be a flat year. And that may be between minus 5% and plus 15%.
Yes, yes. And I'm very clear. I also say that by the end of this quarter, we should have much better credit on a few large contracts or the assignment that we are working. So I think you kindly wait for a quarter more. I think we are working on so many other projects. And with this novel approach, we are getting fantastic results. So it's just a matter of time, very honestly. That is why we said, otherwise, we would be not in acute [indiscernible]. But I think it was a very exciting response that we are getting and hopefully, we should be absolutely on track in terms of normal growth from next year. And definitely, we are targeting some volume growth this year.
The next question comes from the line of Amit Khetan from Laburnum Capital.
So if I -- AIA faced challenges over the last 3, 4 years, right? If we just look at the industry volumes over the last 5 years, specifically mining, would you have a sense of how much the high chrome industry mining has grown in absolute terms?
High chrome is what [indiscernible] competitor they are doing. So volumes in high chrome are largely limited to what both of us are doing. I don't know the number on the top of my head, but we'll just have to do that math. There is no new player for sales coming down. Exactly, not.
No, but the competitor would have also gained some share from you, right by way of in countries where there are duty structure. [indiscernible] trying to understand how much is at the industry level.
What I'm saying is if volume has moved between them to us or ask to them, the industry has remained flat and there has remained still some total of what both of us are doing. That's what we are seeing. So that has grown to expense we have, basically. If we have lost some volume, it's going to then generally, it would have gone to them or there's something the plant has shut or plant has reduced operation to whatever. So the [indiscernible] share is what volume of both of us added up would reflect.
Got it. So broadly over the last 5 years at an industry level has been very limited conversions. Is that what you're trying to see.
Possibly. I mean, that's the total, whatever the math was to, yes.
Okay. Okay. And secondly, when you talk about -- forget about this year, but let's say about on a normal year when you're talking about 25,000 to 30,000, 35,000 conversion, new addition in volumes, how much of that are you factoring in the new conversions? Or how much is just a regain of old volume, which now because of [indiscernible]?
I think there will [indiscernible] is that given our exposure -- see, we are not for say [indiscernible] 1 customer, 1 geography, 1 product line, right? We are selling to more than 120 countries. We're doing cement and mining. Within mining, we're doing 2 or 3 old types. So given all of that, there will always be macro. What we are learning is an always a macro factor that will keep coming along in, putting some headwinds that we need to figure out and work through. So what we are seeing is when we are seeing growth, when we are talking about growth, it is all new conversions from [indiscernible]. Now some volume that's gone away, it will come back. That is basic arithmetic between us and the competitor whatever the macro situation may be. We are not considering that when we're talking about growth coming back, all the growth figures that we want to hopefully share soon.
So just to add, it's a fact that over last few years, you might not have seen a great amount conversion. This is a function of 2, 3 things. One, to the efficacy of our solution is universally accepted by the customer. There is always a great deal of resistance on their part and converting due to a wide variety of reasons. So what we decided that we must make it so potent that we leave -- that the customer would definitely fall for it. So there is a local factor, there is a local competition. Today, I'm saying that now with the mining liner related solution plus the DC-related benefit that we are offering, plus a very unique type of grinding media solution that we have got as a package it becomes so compelling that we have started getting very good results. A couple of projects have shown extremely encouraging results and the clients says right now, they are in the process of negotiating some significantly large higher volume of orders, that has given us confidence that we have now approached many mines. So what is happening is that we have also climbed up the learning curve in terms of our capability and our potential to break into mining based on efficiencies rather than cost. Mining industry, each mine is typically INR 50,000 crores kind of a company. [indiscernible] small volumes or small savings are not relevant. What is relevant is if we offer something which is a game changer, that is where the whole conversion happens. I think we have climbed up to manage curve and it's just a matter of time. We would start seeing definitely better traction in the coming quarters.
As there are no further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to management for closing comments. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you so much. As always, Sanjay bhai and I remain available offline to clarify or speak on any other questions. Thank you so much, and have a great evening, everyone. Thanks.
Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of AIA Engineering Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.
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