Avanza Bank Holding AB (publ) (AZA) Earnings Call Transcript
January 21, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Avanza's Full Year Report 2025 Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Gustaf Unger, CEO. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning. With me in the room in Stockholm today, I have Karolina, Head of Investor Relations; Adnan, who has been our CFO during the interim period; and last but not least, Jonas Svarling our new CEO -- CFO, sorry, I hope not CEO, who will go through the financials after my initial presentation. So a warm welcome to you, Jonas. The best news of the quarter was that Avanza for the 16th year in a row, has Sweden's most satisfied savers according to the Swedish Quality Index. It's also fantastic that we again ranked #1 in every subcategory. Avanza's overall score was 77.6, which can be compared to the industry average of 70. Avanza's Net Promoter Score remained highest in the industry at 41, while the industry average was at 3. I'm especially proud of this achievement considering our scale and that we're growing, which makes it increasingly challenging to maintain high customer satisfaction across a customer base of over 2.2 million. We were also recognized as an employer where we were ranked as one of Sweden's most attractive employers by both Karriärföretagen and Universum and attracting and retaining top talent is, of course, essential to execute on our Strategy 2030. In Universum survey, we also ranked 11th among those with over 8 years of IT experience, this is fantastic since the market for senior IT expertise is limited and highly competitive. It is also impressive that our savings economist, Felicia Schön was honored during the quarter as Savings Profile of the Year and Digital Rising Star of the Year, which is a confirmation of our influence as a powerful voice in personal finance. On top of this, our new podcast that was launched this year called [indiscernible] ranked top 10 most listened-to podcast on Spotify during 2025. We have also delivered new products at high speed with several long sought-after features now launched. With a focus on stock market enthusiasts, we now allow unlimited switches between brokerage fee classes, which is benefiting active traders who make transactions of varying sizes during the trading day. It was previously possible to switch brokerage fee class once a day. Customers who use manual currency exchange features are now paid dividends in local currency instead of automatic exchanges to Swedish krona. Also, the analysis tab on the stock pages now include forward-looking estimates. For our Private Banking clients, savings for children was improved to allow policyholders of endowment insurance to set the age for transferring their wealth to an heir, which private banking customers, in particular, have asked for. Something that we have wanted for many years is to be able to offer mortgage LTVs of 85%. The way that the Swedish mortgage market is currently structured, many customers find their savings locked in with other players in order to get a better mortgage rate. I'm therefore very pleased that we, as of this quarter, now offer mortgages with an LTV of 85% through both our external mortgage partners, Stabelo and Landshypotek. And as our CTO of Fredrik spoke about in the Q3 presentation, our target for 2025 within the cloud journey is to have migrated at least 1 production service to the cloud environment. And we reached this important milestone this quarter. And while this may seem like a small step, it means that everything is now in place for a broader migration. And last but not least, now adding the Q4 results, we can conclude that we are at all-time high full year results. 2025 turned out differently than many of us had expected. I started the year with high hopes for the future, which was quickly turned upside down in the light of geopolitical turmoil and tariff chaos. The stock market climate with rapid and unpredictable terms has been tough for many customers to navigate in and market statistics for the first 9 months of the year show that Swiss deposited more than twice as much in savings on a net basis, but invested significantly less in equities, fixed income securities and funds compared to last year. This suggests that a large share of savings was stuck in current accounts with the universal banks during the year. We welcomed over 170,000 new customers and had a net inflow of SEK 54 billion despite these challenging markets and despite the wind down of our external deposit products. The lower rates and the expansionary fiscal policies speaks for a turnaround for the Swedish long-term savings market in 2026. And although long-term savings might not have been accelerating the way we would have hoped during '25, trading activity did increase compared to '24. As always, well connected to market volatility as you see top left. Bottom left, you see that the number of brokerage regenerating customers increased going into the year and has kept stable at a high level, showing a broad participation in the markets in '25. Top right, you see the increased appetite for foreign securities trading and bottom right, you see the need for our customers to further reduce their big home buyers, which speaks for a continued trend towards foreign securities. When comparing our performance with the target, we have overall done a good job. We did have Sweden's most satisfied savings customers. Our colleagues showed a strong engagement with an eNPS of 57. We produced a return on equity of 40%. The Board is proposing a dividend of 76% of the profit. And the cost to savings capital ratio was further reduced from 14.5 to 14.1 basis points. Our savings capital growth of 13% just fell short of the 15% target. The cost increase of 10.4% was in line with our indication of 11% for the year. And on the sustainability side, our sustainability score was improved during the year but we still have large potential in helping women to save more. With respect to our target to grow savings capital by an annual average of 15% through 2030, we fell slightly short with a growth of 13%. The target was set knowing that growth will be lower in certain years. And this year, our net flow contributed less than we had wanted. One reason is the ongoing process to close the external savings accounts where we started the fall to close accounts belonging to partners that are actively migrating the remaining deposits to their own platforms. In early '25, just before we announced this move, there was nearly SEK 43 billion of our savings capital in these accounts, of which over SEK 26 billion now has left the product. We estimate that 55% of the -- sorry, SEK 26 billion has stayed with Avanza. We also expect to retain approximately the same share of the remaining SEK 16 billion retaining more than half of the volumes we decided to phase out. That's a great deal about the strength of our brand and that customers want to consolidate their savings with Avanza. On the other hand, it also means that we expect our net inflows to continue to be offset by around SEK 8 billion in outflows due to the wind down of external savings accounts until the process is completed in late May 2026. During 2025, we have progressed well with executing on our strategy across all 5 pillars and the target fulfillment I discussed earlier. I think there's strong engagement and energy among my colleagues for the way forward, which is important. Jonas, you have been with Avanza exactly 2 weeks, so I'm certain that you know every financial number inside out by now. Over to you, Jonas.
Of course. Thank you, Gustaf, and good morning, everyone. Great to finally be here. Before we move on to financials, I thought it would be good to just briefly introduce myself. As you said, Gustaf, I joined Avanza as CFO just 2 weeks ago. And joining now is really exciting given what has been set out in our Strategy 2030 and a quite ambitious growth plan. And if you add to that, Avanza's market leading position in Sweden today and also it's a great culture. It was not difficult to say, yes, when you offer the job, Gustaf. So my views on operational efficiency, scalability and volume and customer growth ambitions, et cetera, are a little bit too early obviously to talk about. However, what I have experienced in the first weeks is the culture. I think I've never seen such joint or common and clear commitment or I should rather say, passion for savings and investments and actually bringing that to customers. And that goes across the whole company. And that really stands out to me how people here love making great savings products and also helping each other. I joined from SEB where I spent more than 21 years in different finance risk and treasury positions as well as in different Swedish and Nordic CFO roles. Most recently, however, I co-head SEB's retail and business banking operations in Sweden, including the branch office network, the telephone bank and the digital bank in app and web channels. I hope I would be able to add some knowledge from being responsible for all Swedish private customers, including the smallest Private Banking segment and also smaller corporates. And before SEB, I cofounded an IT consultancy firm and also launched the hedge fund. So originally, actually worked as a programmer given my engineering background. So I look forward to meeting and talking to all of you later, but now let's get into the financials of Q4 last year. And speaking of joining at exciting times. Of course, this is extra good to be here presenting the financials as we're reporting record full year results with both trading and interest-related income streams contributing to that. We're also reporting quite a strong Q4 with operating income in line with previous record levels. However, as we have planned for and also guided for, we're also increasing the cost this quarter resulting in an operating profit of SEK 733 million, which is still strong, although 10% lower than Q3. If you look at the full year cost, they came in at 10.4% cost increase. SEK 7 million or slightly below our guidance of 11%. All in all, net profit is up by 17% compared to last year and return on equity at a healthy 40% meeting the row target of atleast 35%. Earnings per share is at SEK 16.57, up 16% compared to 2024. Now let's look at the income side. And here, we still see a stable and healthy income mix with some underlying trends that will begin to. It's been, as Gustaf said, a little bit of a special year with quite volatile markets. And as usual, volatility correlates quite well with customer activity. And as a result, we're seeing trading-related income accounting for an increased share of revenues compared to last year. At the same time, NII has remained stable despite lower market rates. Altogether, this has resulted and as said, in all-time high revenues in 2025. If we look at Q4 specifically and start with brokerage income, trading activity held up well, although we saw a little bit of a slowdown in December, where we also had quite a few days when the stock market was closed. They were actually 4.5 fewer trading days in Q4 compared to Q3, which contributed to a 4% decrease in brokerage income. Adding to this, the brokerage margin then decreased slightly to 11.2 basis points, down from 11.4 as Private Banking and Pro customers a higher share of the brokerage 26% compared to 24% last quarter. When it comes to foreign trading, that high interest remained throughout the year, apart from a short dip in April. And in Q4, the turnover in foreign securities accounted for 30% of brokers generating turnover. And in absolute numbers, it was the second highest turnover in foreign securities ever, resulting in a strong FX income in Q4. Moving over to fund commissions. We are seeing some margin pressure this quarter with the share of index funds increasing to 50.6% by the end of the period. The fund margin decreased to 24.4 basis points on average and was at 24.0 basis points by quarter end. And when it comes to the margin, the split between active and passive funds is one explanation, but also what type of index funds our customers choose to allocate their funds savings stores can also have an effect. As you talked about us that we hope for a stronger Swedish economy in 2026. And we also see that in signs in terms of fund savings where we've seen Swedish index funds among the most net bought during the later part of the year. These are in general price lower than those with international exposure, thus lowering margins. However, when it comes to funds, volumes are growing and despite the negative margin development, we had an all-time high fund commissions, both for a single quarter and for the year. Lastly, other income was weaker in Q4, explained both by decreased income from several smaller and different income streams. And on the other side as well, several other smaller commission cost lines that are not reported separately. Part of this is related to the income from external savings accounts, which is a volume-based distribution income, which natural then decreases as we are closing down these accounts, as Gustaf highlighted. Also, cost for payment commissions increased as a result of more people logging in when markets were quite shaky, which means increased cost for bank ID usage. Income from corporate finance also decreased by the income from Avanza markets increased. If we move over to NII. The importance of our growing volumes is once again demonstrated despite 100 basis points lower policy rate today and then going into 2025, full year NII remained stable compared to 2024, thanks to increase both deposit and lending volumes. This applies for the quarter, where we are seeing a volume-driven increase of NII despite the latest and possibly last policy rate cut on October 1. You first look quickly at the lending side. We reduced the rates on margin lending by 13 basis points following the latest policy rate cut. The mortgage rate, however, is directly tied to the policy rate and was consequently reduced by 25 basis points. The combined effect of these rate changes led to the average rate for internal finance lending decreasing to 2.81% from 3.01%. We believe we have quite an attractive offering when it comes to the mortgages, and we have also done some extra marketing, as you will see later in the cost part towards Private Banking clients, and we're seeing some quite nice results of that in mortgage volumes that increased by over SEK 1 billion in the quarter, mainly related to Private Banking customers. Moving over to interest cost side. Interest expense for deposit increased some due to the higher internal deposit volumes and an increased share of deposits that are interest-bearing accounts that was at 58% compared to 54% last quarter. This was the large extent, then offset, however, by the lower deposit rates, which also decreased with the policy rate cut on October 1, and the average annualized rate of deposits was 0.76%, 4 basis points lower than last quarter. To summarize, NII remains a stable contributor to income mix. As I said, the volume is the key driving factor. The Riksbank is estimating unchanged policy rate going forward, unless there are changes that outlet for inflation and economic activity. This would indicate a more stable rates and thus margins going forward, all else equal. Moving over to costs. The full year costs increased, as I said before, by 10.4% compared to 2024, meaning that our spend has in SEK 7 million lower compared to the guidance of a cost growth at 11% in 2025. The slightly lower costs are explained mainly by us being able to keep the cost for the cloud journey below budget and to some extent, also by our work on operational efficiency, we have been quite successful in reducing external spend during the year. Looking specifically at Q4, we are at 24% higher cost than Q3. That's an increase of flag 4 when we reiterating our guidance in the last quarter presentation. As I'm sure many of you know by now, our staff costs are seasonally low in Q3 due to vacation debt in reduce and as a result, are now comparatively higher. In addition to that, we had more consultants on site, mainly tied to the cloud migration. And on top of that, the marketing costs are up quite substantially this quarter compared to the very low levels of Avanza is usually at. Our very strong brand and our customers' high willingness to recommend us particularly how we drive inflow of the word of mouth. However, we do not have the same brand recognition when it comes to Private Banking and occupational pension, and that is why we increased our marketing initiatives towards these segments, which, as you saw earlier, improved, for instance, lending to the Private Banking segment. It is quite important though to note that this quarter's cost level should not be seen as the new quarterly run rate for marketing costs going forward. Although we will continue to work to build brand awareness as part of our efforts to grow within Private Banking and pension. This reasoning also applies to the full cost base, where not all of the cost increases in Q4 are recurring running costs. If you look into the future in terms of cost then, our long-term target is, as communicated before, an average annual cost growth of 8%, up until and including 2030. And as said, this cost growth will be higher at the beginning of the period as we're investing within our Swedish growth initiatives with the aim to reach 5% by 2030. This implementation or strategy that continues at full speed, and we forecast cost to increase by 9% in 2026 driven by continued investments in accelerated growth in Sweden. The planned investments, they include work to develop our Private Banking business and the launch of our new discretionary portfolio management product as well as investing in our pension business. It also includes all the continuous work within our core business to make sure Avanza stays in the forefront when it comes to offerings and user experience. The cloud journey also continues, where you mentioned that Gustaf that reaching quite an important milestone during the quarter when we migrated our first production service to the cloud. Meaning that everything is now in place for broader migration. And in 2026, the work will be focused on migrating services that we find suitable and easy to move at a controlled pace. We are, of course, not immune to inflation, which will drive some of the cost growth as well. Our work on improving our internal efficiency is quite important to offset this. Total salary adjustments are expected to amount to around 4%, which when you consider the staff cost as a share of total cost yield a cost increase of somewhat above 2% as illustrated on the slide. Summarizing, our cost increase is related to investing in further growth and we continue our work to improving efficiency to be able to meet the planned volume growth with an improved platform. Our answer is built on scalability, and we are the leading position when it comes to cost to savings capital ratio and we intend to maintain that position. The target is to decrease the cost to savings capital ratio over time. And in 2025, it decreased to 14.1 basis points compared to 14.5 basis points in 2024. Finally, and concluding a note on capitalization and the proposed dividend. Avanza is well capitalized with prudent margins, both the leverage ratio, including Pillar 2 guidance and the total capital requirement, including risk-based Pillar 2 requirements. The binding constraint is the leverage ratio. And even though our deposit volumes on balance sheet has increased substantially during the year, largely driven then by the closing down or external savings accounts, we still have a healthy margin leverage ratio requirements, which should be stress very poorly captures the extremely low risk profile of Avanza's balance sheet asset side. Taking this and the strong result into account, the Board has decided to propose a higher dividend per share compared to last year of SEK 12.75 per share. This corresponds to a payout ratio of 76%, which exceeds our target of 70%, but also leaves us with capital flexibility going forward. And concluding and maybe repeating myself a little bit. As you can see, we still have good headroom to the total leverage ratio requirement of 3.5%, including the Pillar 2 guidance of 50 basis points which I said is the most constraining recline for us. This gives us a position where we can handle increased deposits of SEK 32 billion before reaching it. And with that, I will hand back to you, Gustaf, for some closing remarks.
Thank you. I again start the new year optimistic about the future may sound strange given what's happening around us with Greenland. But we have received positive signals on inflation and that personal consumption is starting to grow, the Riksbank's policy rate of 175% is a whole percentage point lower than that at the start of 2025. And this is important for Swedish households who are more rate sensitive than in other countries where we typically own our homes, and we often have variable rate mortgages. The government has issued an expansionary budget for '26, which is likely to help the Swedish economy to finally gain momentum despite continued global uncertainty. I believe and hope that this leads to 2026 being a year when households actually have more money left in their pockets, which should be positive for the Swedish savings market and for Avanza. Now we're happy to take questions from you.
[Operator Instructions] And then we'll go and take our first question. And it comes to the line of Martin Ekstedt from Handelsbanken.
Jonas first, welcome on board. Could I direct my first question to you, please, and ask what will be your first priorities as CFO, including -- I'm sorry for making this sounds like maybe a job interview question specifically in relation to finding a new home market for Avanza 2030. What is your experience of cross-border M&A and for that matter establishing new markets organically?
Yes. Thank you, Martin, lots of questions in one go. Maybe disappointing in saying that as joining as CFO, I would initially dig into all the numbers for me, the most important priority right now is listening to customers and meeting all the staff of Avanza and really understanding where we are right now and what is needed. Then based on that, I will spend more time on beginning to the financials and what can be done related to that. Then you also asked about the experience in terms of M&A and international expansion also where we stand on that. I think in general, when we have something more to communicate related to our international expansion, we will do that. I cannot add more related to that. Other than it's part of our strategy 2020 -- 2030 to grow internationally. That's also one really exciting thing about the Avanza growth case, the attractive neat Avanza when Gustaf and I had conversations related to that. Having worked in SEB for 21 years, there have been numerous occasions where I've been involved in different cases in terms of both buying or divesting different types of businesses. Some have happened. Some have not happened. Those that haven't happened obviously cannot comment on, but there have been a few acquisitions that have been disclosed publicly, where I've been working behind the scenes. On top of that, I was CFO for a Nordic business, the Nordic SEB Kort Banking Group for a couple of years, so have some experience running across Nordic business as well. Hopefully, that answers some of your questions.
Loud and clear. And then for my second question, this quarter, you actually for once reported material loan loss provisions, SEK 4 million which looks like 5 basis points of lending annualized. That's not exactly low for our portfolio of Swedish Private Banking mortgage. So I just wanted to ask for some further clarity on that one. Doing some archeology around these numbers, it looks like you haven't reported provisions on this level since 2011, and your report still states that you have no realized credit losses attributable to events after 2011 and to quote. So I assume it's been no realized part of the statement that is key, right, i.e., this is a new provision and not a realized loss. Is that correct? And could you just give us some more added comfort around this that it's not the start of the more pronounced peak of credit losses.
Yes, I can comment on that. And it is exactly, as you say, it's related to expected credit losses, not realized credit losses and it should not be seen as an indicator and generally increased losses or risks in the credit portfolio is stable and healthy low. This is related to one single stock producing in estimated values related to Inteligo technologies related to our margin lending, related to that stock, which explains almost everything of the increase in expected credit losses.
Okay. So it's on the margin lending side?
Correct and we made a very conservative estimation of that.
Now we're going to take our next question. And it comes line of Jacob Hesslevik from SEB.
Let's start with the net flows during the fourth quarter. If we take your 55% take rate on external deposits, it means roughly SEK 11.7 billion has left platform. And if I remember correctly, SEK 3 billion had left as of Q3, meaning that outflow accelerated during the fourth quarter. In October, you had strong net inflows of above SEK 5 billion. Does that mean that the majority of the outflow occurred during November and December where the numbers were a bit weaker?
Jacob, I must admit I don't have the monthly numbers of the external deposit account flows in my head. But I mean, November, December were weak. They were clearly weaker than we hoped and planned for. '25 was a very challenging year for long-term savings. A lot of deposits were stuck with the universal banks that I mentioned. And the -- and during the fall, so -- some of the partners have been less -- have had less appetite to retain volumes and some partners have fought for it more. Let me put it that way. And the latter of the year was more challenging partners from our perspective.
Yes, but, Gustaf, if we think about it in this way, in total, roughly SEK 12 billion has left your platform, correct? And in Q3, you wrote that SEK 3 billion had left. So it's SEK 9 billion during the fourth quarter alone. And if we assume that Avanza usually have natural net inflows of roughly SEK 5 billion per month, we see that in November, December, you had roughly SEK 0.5 billion. But if you divide up the SEK 9 billion that you had in outflows, it's SEK 4.5 billion per month and SEK 5 billion in natural net inflows, less than SEK 4.5 billion outflow gives you the actual monthly data that you reported for November and December. Is it correct to assume that the majority of those SEK 9 billion went out in November and December, and that's why you only reported SEK 0.5 billion in net inflows?
My recollection is that I was disappointed with November and December also taking the external deposits accounts -- into account, so to say.
Okay. Yes. But if we then move forward looking instead, you have roughly SEK 16 billion left on the external deposit platform with your 55% take rate, it means that just above SEK 7 billion will leave up until May. Can you help us understand if this SEK 7 billion will be more front-loaded or back-loaded? Or should we expect it to be equally spread out per month?
I think we've guided SEK 8 billion. I mean it's a rounded number. But no, I don't want to stick out my head and say which months. So still it's an ongoing dialogue with our partners. We want to make this, as I think we've done in 2025, a good experience and controlled experience for our customers, but also for these partner banks who to some extent, are dependent on this funding. So we still stand with a view that we will be done with this closure by the end of May.
Okay. But if we have so little visibility on these outflows, I think as I speak for all analysts on this call when I say it would be very helpful if you could clarify and show in the upcoming monthly statistics per month, how much of the net inflow number was affected by outflow from external deposit platform.
It's noted Jacob.
And the next question comes from the line of Patrik Brattelius from ABG.
Can you hear me?
Yes.
Perfect. So my first question would go to Jonas, who is the new kid on the block. As you were announced quite much earlier than you joined, I reckon that you have followed the company from the sidelines. Could you talk a little bit from your point of view, which are the biggest areas of improvement potential that you see now entering the firm?
Thank you, Patrik. And also for calling me kid, it feels always good for a 47 year old man. So thank you for that. Yes, it's been 6 months on the sideline. However, I did stay and support SEB a little while so it's actually only 2 months fully on the sideline, but still and only having access to public and external data and previously then competing with Avanza in my previous role, it was always with a little bit of envy how Avanza attracted so many customers and so much saving capital and what was the secret source behind it. Was it the use experience itself? May be a function of culture or whatever was it. So that was -- I was also always then wondering how can it be improved because when you look at it from the outside, things look quite well in terms of both financials and flows, et cetera. So that was maybe my sort of key questions of what are the efficiencies? What are the changes that can be made to further improve this because if you listen to Gustaf and if you listen to Sven, how they talk about the company, there are still lots of things to do, both with the core business in Sweden and when it comes to international expansion which only see a separate and interesting growth case. And then when you come inside, you see that we are not done. There are things to do. I think you, Gustaf, highlighted that in earlier calls that there are things we can do on the inside in terms of operational efficiency. I think Avanza has been quite good at making user experience and flows for customers strong and attractive, and I think those are customers have experienced that. There are some processes and systems, et cetera, on the inside that are maybe not on par with what customers experience on the outside. So I think there are improvement opportunities in that area, I would say.
Okay. Great. My next question is following up on the topic of the savings capital left on the external savings count. How do you view taking potential actions to get the larger share of the remaining capital to stay on the platform, potentially raising savings rate on your own account temporarily to keep a higher share? Or how do you view that or any other actions potentially?
We -- Patrik, I mean, we really want our customers to consolidate all their savings with us. So we want our customers to retain all of their savings with us. When -- with the last rate cut, I think it was announced late September, we did not reduce the rate on our savings account fully, left a little bit extra on the table for customers. Partly because we thought that this may be the last rate cap, and let's share it a little bit more with customers, but also with the savings, the external savings accounts in mind. So no, I don't have any -- we don't have any concrete things in mind here. And I think we're doing a pretty good job to guide our customers to make the right choice. And I think we have an attractive internal savings account.
Okay. Fair. I understand. And my last question, if I squeeze in a third one is that the other commission income line is down quite lot sequentially. You talked about the drivers here. But can you elaborate if any effect here or temporarily? Or is this the new base level as it is like minus SEK 26 million in the quarter?
All except one important factor are not a trend, but rather this quarter. But one is clearly a trend, and that is that we have, and we will continue up until end of May book the income we get from our banking partners for distributing their external savings deposits, and that, of course, naturally goes down as volume goes down. But the other ones are more fluctuations in market. We saw more interest from customers to log in, which increased the costs for Bank [indiscernible], which shows up as a negative income on that role. So I would say the savings account effect will continue and will be there forever, but the other ones are more market related.
And the question comes line of Markus Sandgren from Kepler Cheuvreux.
Congrats Jonas to your new position. I was actually looking a bit more on the longer-term trends. If you look at the transaction activity in relation to savings capital is clearly going down over the years. On the other hand, it has been both much higher volume traded in foreign currencies and also the price per trade is going up steadily in the last couple of years. Can you talk a bit about the dynamics for the coming years. What do you expect in terms of pricing dynamics and trading in relation to savings capital. So what base?
I mean if you take a long time series, I mean, Avanza started directing towards the very trading-oriented, trading interest suite. Today, we have more than 2.2 billion -- million, sorry, customers, which, of course, some are very interested to be active on the exchange and some are -- they want to buy a fund or a few funds and then be very happy with that allocation. So the mix of customers have changed. If you have -- if you look over many years, looking out in the future, I think it's very challenging. It is so market dependent. The only trend that I dare to be clear on that is for an exposure. I mean our customers have a way too big homebuyers still today almost 80% of their securities portfolio is exposed to Sweden. That is not a good geographical diversification. We will see over time further interest for foreign securities. That is my view.
Okay. And if I put the question like this then that the reason for higher average price per trade. Is that driven by larger volumes per trade or by high share of foreign securities? Or is there anything else?
I would need to dig in and get back to you, Markus. I haven't thought around it from that angle.
And the question comes line of Andrew Lowe from Citi.
The first one is just on your net brokerage margin and particularly on the expense part of that equation. So your brokerage fee expense was 15.3% of brokerage income having previously been between sort of low 14s in the mid-14s in the prior year. So it has been quite steady and it jumped up a lot in Q4. Could you just explain what drives that uplift and whether that uplift is recurring or we should expect it to come back down again? The second question is if you could maybe just provide a little bit more detail on the Q-on-Q drag from other income from your lower external deposits? Or maybe just if you could give us the fee margin that you earn on those deposits. That would be really helpful. And the final clarification is just how much of your SEK 300 million of transformation costs that you called out a year or so ago was spent in 2025?
Hard questions, Andrew. On the first one, I need to get back to you. The second one was around...
Other income...
Okay. So we would like to give you transparency on this, and we would like to have done that already in early 2025, but our hands are tied with the agreements we have with our partner banks. So we are not -- we have not and we will not disclose the margin that we earn on that product. But what can we say on the other income line? It's hard to -- I mean, with the hands tied there, it's a little bit difficult to answer. The third question was...
How much of the SEK 300 million transformation cost was spent on 2025?
I mean we indicated going into '25, how our cost increase of 11% would be distributed. And you can use that and also what Jonas said that we are slightly below our budget for the cloud journey for this year. I haven't that number in my head, but it needs to be calculated backwards by those numbers, Andrew.
A question comes from the line of Haley Tam from UBS.
I add my welcome to Jonas as well. Hope you can hear me okay. My first question, I'm afraid, is just a follow up on the external servings accounts but perhaps a different way. The 55% retention rate, thank you very much for giving that number. And also, I would really be interested to understand what underpins your confidence in that 55% going forward because I might have anticipated that some of the earlier volume changes might have been from partners who did not intend to keep the deposits. So maybe any color you can give on the mix of the types of partner going forward or measures, as I think was previously asked, would be helpful to understand the confidence in that 55%. And then the second question really was just a follow-up on what you said about the form in trading and then how that should continue to increase going forward. I just wondered whether you see any sort of short-term impacts as likely this year given the current geopolitical tensions, whether you see any evidence of any kind of shift in attitude amongst your clients since the start of this year towards U.S. stocks in particular? And then the third and final question, if I may, was just about the launch of the discretionary mandate solutions. I just wondered whether you could give us any update on the feedback you've had from your Private Banking clients, what kind of expectations you have for uptake and speed of all at once you start that, I think, this quarter.
Thank you, Haley. Now first question was around savings account. So I mean, you and your colleagues pushed us already a year ago to guide more on how much of the volumes would Avanza retain. And we didn't dare to do that. We don't want to guide unless we are fairly certain. We feel fairly certain enough to guide you now on that we will -- we expect to retain slightly more than half of this retaining SEK 60 billion. What is that based on? It's based on a close dialogue with all the 6 out of 7 partners who still have volumes in their product. The data we have on client behavior, data we have on clients that actively take a choice, data we have on clients who do not make a choice, i.e. there comes to an agreement between us and the partner bank, what happens with those volumes. So we feel fairly comfortable. It's always a little bit scared to stick out your head looking into the future. But unless we were not certainly enough, we would not guide you. The second question was around help me here -- foreign trading. But you asked a little bit for now, right? Of course, we have a lot of insight what's happening right now, but I think we are very transparent with our monthly statistics. What I can say and what I think we published out of the 5 most traded foreign securities, 4 of them are net sold year-to-date. In general, volatility is good for trading. Do we see volatility in the U.S., we typically see more trading in the U.S. What we saw though in April, with the Liberation Day, we saw a little bit of light from U.S. exposure into European exposure. So we saw that effect. So we try to be close to customers and guide them and help them in these challenging times. I think there was a third question?
Discretionary mandate.
On the discretionary mandate, it's too early to say. I think we have had -- we have a number of customers who are willing to develop this product with us. And a lot of customers have wanted to participate and the feedback we've gotten so far is very positive. But the market is not -- the product is not out in the market yet. We're working according to plan with it, I look very much forward to market launch later this year.
And the question comes line of Ermin Keric from DNB Carnegie.
If we start on the net flows. But disregarding the Savings Account+. More in general, what do you feel that you could do to drive the underlying net inflows to be stronger? And do you see any indication that competition has impacted its again, underlying this regard to Savings Account+?
I think there's a lot we can do. I think there's a lot we do, but there's a lot of things we can do better. I think a lot of volumes have built up with the salary accounts with the big universal banks I think we can improve in trying to activate these customers' savings. There's a lot of pension money that sits with inexpensive solutions. I think we can do a better job to help our customers to move into more cost-efficient solutions, which they can find with us. We had a very good pilots on the occupational pension side in Q4, it's not seen in the numbers yet because that takes a little bit of time. But yes, so the short answer is yes. There's a lot of areas where we can improve, and we're slowly but shortly doing that. There was something connected to that.
Yes. I suppose like do you see that there's been competition impacting it being a bit slower than you expected for 2025, generally. If I just take one example on Pro, it's not major numbers, but now you've had outflows for 3 consecutive months, for instance.
Yes. If you take the Pro segment, in general, we don't see increased competition for that segment. I mean, this is a client group who -- they don't have a normal job but normally in within brackets, I mean, they live out of this trading. So they will always have an outflow. So unless they put in more money, we will always see an outflow, but they can only -- we will only say a net outflow, but they live from this that they need to have a better return to be able to do this. And if you look at the savings capital development, it's still pretty okay for the Pro segment. In general, we see that some customers test new players with part of their money. We have seen that with -- we saw that with Sabre when they were new. We saw it a little bit with Lebler, we see it with Montrose. But in general, I would say no, I mean.
Okay. And you introduced that you could switch brokerage class more frequently now. Why didn't you just introduce automatic allocation to commission classes? Wouldn't that be the most true to kind of your DNA, you're making it simple for the customer?
I think we have done a clear improvement in Q4 for our customers for the ones who do want to change brokerage class. It's very few of our customers who want to actively do that. It's something that's been sought after for quite a while. It was actually a little bit tricky to do technically, and that's why it's also taken some time. When it comes to pricing in general, I think we have a very attractive offering. I think the average cost for a trade done with us in 2025 was like SEK 11. I think it's very cost efficient to run your portfolio with us. Having said that, of course, we want to constantly improved the offering towards customers be it either through better functionality or to even more efficiently run their portfolio.
Got it. Then the last question, just on the mortgage side. We see that on your internal Private Banking mortgage, you've seen growth ramping up per quarter now. You mentioned you've done some marketing. Is that what's already driving it? Is it the market? And kind of what should we expect from here in terms of growth on that product?
I think it's a combination of us being more visible with our Private Banking brand. And then for the whole group here, our own mortgages are only available to our Private Banking customers. So that is one factor. The other factor, which is not quarter-to-quarter, but if you look a year or 2 back, I mean, the funding cost relation to the universal banks has improved for us. So I mean in relative terms, our rates are more attractive today than a year or 2 ago. So I would say it's those 2 combinations.
We'll take our next question and it comes from the line of Enrico Bolzoni from JPMorgan.
So if I look at your customer growth has become a mid- to high single-digit annualized growth on a monthly basis roughly, while historically, you grew much stronger. If I look at your target of growing saving capital by 15% in Sweden over time, conscious of this in a way, deceleration in customer growth. Can you please help us to break down the 15% on its key components by that, I mean, could you tell us how much you expecting saving capital growth will come from new clients joining the platform, how much from market appreciation and how much from flows? And lastly, a bit of I mean I try, I'm not sure if there's an answer to that. But going back again to the customer growth, do you have an idea of your market share of customer growth when it comes to clients that in Sweden every month, every quarter, every year, open an account with a digital platform like yours. So just to get a sense of how much would be the front book growth you're capturing in terms of customer growth?
So if your last question was our market share among new customers with the subsegment of the Swedish savings market, i.e., only the digital players, then I don't have that number, we don't have a market number. It's hard for us to estimate. But I would say it's aligned with our market share on the existing customers, and then it's very high. But we don't have market statistics on that subsegment, Enrico. The first question -- all right. So what we have said, which we still stand by is that the 15% is decomposed in market depreciation of 5%. It is then 10% remaining in net inflow and of those net inflow, we estimate that the Swedish savings market will have net inflows of 3% to 4%. So we will capture those and then we will need to steal market share from competitors, equivalent to 6% to 7%, adding up to the 15%. We know that we have a big potential to have our customers move a larger share of their financial wealth to us. And on top of that, we have the growth of new customers, which was 8% this year.
[Operator Instructions] And now we'll proceed with the next question. And it comes from the line of Phillip Moe Mølmen from SB1 Markets.
First, following up on admin's first question. What's going to do to actuate the money sitting in current accounts and then not deployed in the markets? What are some triggers you see available to you?
It is a tricky one. But we -- and I think it boils down to the Sweet belief about the future, if it's bright or if it's scary. And if it's believed to be scary, then you don't take long-term decisions, which long-term savings is. But I think there is a clear opportunity for us since we believe that volumes has piled up with the current accounts with the big universal banks. So that, of course, is reflected in how we communicate with our customers and with the market now and going forward. But I don't want to go into the details to hand that to our competitors, how we will -- how we're planning to do that.
Sure, sure. Makes sense. My second question goes to you, Jonas. Maybe a little bit earlier, but we'll try. With increased deposits on your balance sheet, you state that you can now take on additional SEK 32 billion of deposits for reaching your requirements. My question is that with both the remaining migration, we expect around SEK 8 billion of inflows. And with the continued growth of savings capital, how do you think about your capital position going forward and long term as well?
When the Board proposes the dividend as indicated here, then we have taken into account volume growth, both from the underlying business as well as the inflow of additional deposits from the closing down of savings account, that's already included. We also, throughout the year, obviously, will have, if things go according to plan, a growth in capital due to growth in income. So the accumulation of capital from profits will help offset to a large extent the increase of planned deposits, both organically and then those from the close down of the Sparkonto Plus product. Then we're obviously continuously looking at optimizing the capital structure of the group and the different companies within the group, and we will continue to look into that in 2026.
Sure. Sure. Okay. My final question is on NII. With the increased internal deposits that initially goes on to the balance sheet. With an increase in NII quarter-over-quarter in the first quarter of [indiscernible] all rate cuts, which is great. While other income or the distribution fees, it had some noise as well, but are reduced by less distribution fee from partner banks. How should we think about the relationship between lower fee income from partner banks and higher NII going forward, both in terms of numbers and in terms of quality of income streams?
The only thing that I want to say there, Phillip, is that the decision to close down the external deposit product was mainly driven by the fact that the product had passed its due date because of the new view from the Swedish FSA. Having said that and what we have said, what we have seen during 2025 and what we expect for '26, it is net positive for Avanza's P&L.
And now we'll go to the last question for today. And it comes from the line of Andrew Lowe from Citi.
A quick one. Could you maybe just elaborate a little bit about how you're feeling about crypto and sort of potential to do something there, lots of few peers implementing stuff. So it would be helpful just to have a recap of what your thinking is with this asset class.
If I start with looking back at Q4, I mean the -- we offer exposure to cryptocurrencies through ETPs. We saw the activity being modest when I compare to previous quarters. Having said that, we continuously look at our overall offering. And of course, this one, your question is on our table. Me, personally, I'm a bit divided, as I've said before, there is client demand. On the other hand, I've been educated my whole career to look at investments from a cash flow perspective. But it's on the table and looked at.
This because there are no further questions for today. I would now like to hand over to Gustaf Unger for any final remarks.
Many thanks for taking the time, all of you, and I hope you have a great day.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.
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