BlueNord ASA (BNOR) Earnings Call Transcript

Good morning, everyone, and a very warm welcome to BlueNord's results presentation for the second quarter of 2026. As always, it's a real pleasure to have you with us as we walk through not only our performance in the first half of the year, but also the outlook for 2026 and beyond. To start, and before we get into the numbers, I want to talk about what we are most pleased with operationally this quarter, and that's Tyra. Since the field started up in 2024, we've been consistent on 2 things. Firstly, we've always believed the hub could produce at higher levels than we had seen. And secondly, that we knew it would take work from the operator to get there. It was that backdrop that drove the decision to have a planned shutdown in the second half of last year. And then another planned shutdown in the second quarter of this year. The focus with these has very much been on increasing Tyra's maximum production potential, and just as importantly, making sure that the hub can produce consistently. So I'm very pleased today to be able to say that during the most recent shutdown, the full work scope was successfully completed, and we're already seeing the results of that. Tyra is now producing at record rates of over 28,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day net to BlueNord. And we expect this to carry forward with higher operational efficiency also driving higher average production in the coming quarters. So it's been a long time coming, but we can now see Tyra delivering on its potential and producing the volumes that we always believed it could. And that's important in isolation for sure, but it's also important given what we're seeing in the external environment. Well, everyone knows that oil has been particularly volatile over the last few months. The gas price, by contrast, or in contrast, has remained consistently high. And as we produce more gas, we will take full advantage of this ongoing strength. And on that point, I think I just want to take one step back and reiterate what I said last quarter. So our job isn't to predict where prices go. Our job is to make sure that BlueNord is well positioned whatever happens in the market. And what you'll hear from us today is that we've done exactly that. We've generated record operating cash flow when prices have been high. We've protected our downside while maintaining upside exposure through hedging, and we've optimized our balance sheet to lower borrowing costs and increase flexibility. So all in all, we're well set to deliver strongly through the remainder of 2026 and beyond. And let's turn to the next slide now to go through that in a little bit more detail. Just before I start on the next slide, though, I just want to say that as usual, we'll have questions-and-answer session at the end of the presentation. And if we -- if you want to put the questions into the web portal, then we'll come back and answer them at the end. So Miriam, Cathrine and Jacqueline will take you through the detail. I'll just give you a few headlines upfront. So production first. This came in at 37,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q2, just under 18,000 of which was from the base and just over 19,000 of which was from Tyra. With the planned shutdown now behind us and with Tyra producing at record rates, the scene is set for strong performance in the second half. On the financial side, revenue came in at $277 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $148 million, and we generated net operating cash flow of $249 million. In terms of what we did on the hedging side during the quarter, we used the supportive commodity price environment throughout the first half of the year to strengthen our hedge book. This now covers around 70% of our expected volumes through to the end of 2026. And on the majority of the remaining 30%, we've added downside protection through put options at $75 a barrel and EUR 40 per megawatt-hour. What that means in practice is that our dividend this year is downside protected without us having given away all of the exposure to the upside. On the balance sheet, we've completed the refinancing that we told you about in our Q1 results, replacing BNOR16 with a new bond. This was a proactive step that not only lowered our borrowing cost by more than 150 basis points, but also gave us more forward flexibility on distributions. And the underlying balance sheet continues to strengthen in the background. Leverage is down to 1.6x EBITDA, and our liquidity stands at $546 million, all of which supports the core of our equity story, returning capital to shareholders. And with today's declared distribution -- sorry, declared dividend of $174 million for Q2, we've now returned just shy of $800 million over roughly the last 12 months, a real achievement. And let's turn to the next slide to look at this properly. So as I said, this is a core pillar of our strategy. Since we started making distributions, we've been consistently at the top end of our stated distribution policy, returning 70% of net operating cash flow to shareholders and today is no different. For 2027 and beyond, we'll communicate our longer-term distribution policy later this year, but the principles that we operate under won't change. We will always look to be a company that is focused on delivering an attractive return to shareholders. And with that, I'll hand over to Miriam to talk about the operations in some more detail. Thank you.

Thank you, Euan. As Euan mentioned, I will now take you through our operational performance for the quarter. We started Q2 with strong operational performance across the portfolio before entering into a period of planned maintenance activity, including the Gorm shutdown in May and the Tyra shutdown in June. Production from the base assets was impacted primarily by delayed repair work on the Dan hub and lift-gas constraints on Gorm following the shutdown. At Tyra, production was impacted by the first cleaning of the Valdemar pipeline since restart and the restart challenges following the planned June shutdown. I will now take you through the key operational highlights from both the base assets and Tyra starting with an overview of total production for the quarter. As we presented last quarter, Q1 delivered the highest average quarterly production since Tyra restart at 43,100 barrels of oil equivalent per day. While Q2 production was temporarily impacted by planned shutdowns at Gorm and Tyra, these activities delivered important maintenance, reliability improvements and facility upgrades that positions the assets for stronger performance going forward. Tyra continues to be the key driver of growth and exited the quarter above 26,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Together with the stable contributions from the base assets, this resulted in an overall portfolio exit rate of approximately 45,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, providing a strong foundation for production growth in the second half of 2026. I will now take you through the operational activities behind this performance, starting with our base assets. During Q2, our base assets delivered broadly stable performance, although production was impacted by planned maintenance and a small number of operational issues. The quarter started strongly with good production performance across Dan, Halfdan and Gorm before entering into the planned annual Gorm shutdown in May. The shutdown was safely executed and included important maintenance and integrity work to support future reliability and long-term production performance. The WROM III campaign at Gorm is ongoing, which is expected to unlock additional production potential through 2026 and beyond. On Dan, production was impacted by delayed repair work. Recovery activities are planned for August. Halfdan continued to provide stable production throughout the quarter, underlining its role as a reliable, low-decline asset within the portfolio. Looking ahead, we expect the base assets to continue providing a strong and stable production foundation, while planned maintenance activities will continue with work both on Dan and Halfdan in Q3, these investments are essential to maintaining asset integrity, reliability and long-term value creation. Turning to Tyra. The planned June shutdown was an important milestone in unlocking production potential and improving long-term reliability across the Tyra and Harald facilities. As presented previously, our focus has been on 3 key areas: increasing available well potential, improving processing capacity and export capability and strengthening operational reliability. The shutdown scope was designed to address constraints in each of these areas, and it was executed safely and successfully. Starting with well potential. Modifications were completed for the key HEMJ well, replacing the existing choke and rerouting production through the main process system on Harald. This removes a known surface constraint, improves temperature control and supports increased production through the facilities. Initial post-start-up performance has been encouraging and confirms the strong underlying reservoir performance. Our processing capacity -- on processing capacity, the shutdown identified several underlying causes of reduced performance of the Tyra LP separator. These issues were successfully rectified. This work has already improved separator operation and provides a better foundation for handling higher production rates and reduce slugging-related constraints going forward. The shutdown also delivered important reliability improvements. Compressor VFD upgrades were completed to reduce the risk of trips and improve restart performance. And remediation of ESD and control system deficiencies was undertaken, which will further strengthen the reliability of the facilities. So although restart challenges extended the shutdown by approximately 3 days, the root cause was identified as a missing reset, which was then rectified. Importantly, no damage occurred to equipment, and valuable lessons have been incorporated into future operating and support procedures. The benefits of the shutdown are already being realized. Gas production has returned to levels above those achieved before the shutdown, recently reaching a record gross gas rate of 253 million SCF per day. We have just achieved 28,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day, the highest production rate since Tyra restart in 2024. More importantly, production is currently averaging above 26,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day with further optimization underway. This demonstrates both the effectiveness of the shutdown scope and the underlying potential of the Tyra facilities. In summary, the shutdown successfully delivered key activities required to improve reliability, remove identified constraints and provide a stronger platform for higher and more stable production performance through the second half of 2026. So to summarize the Tyra status. We continue to see solid progress across the asset. Well and reservoir performance remained robust, process improvements are progressing and the June shutdown was safely and successfully executed to address key production and reliability constraints. The benefits are already visible with production rates above 28,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, demonstrating the underlying potential of the facilities. While a few operational constraints remain, mitigation activities are underway, and the operator continues to focus on process stability, reliability and unlocking the remaining well potential. Together with the improvements delivered during the shutdown, this supports our expectations of more stable operations and higher production through the second half of 2026. Our strategy remains clear, maintain momentum, maximize the value of our assets and deliver the full long-term potential of Tyra. I will now hand over to Cathrine, our Chief Corporate Affairs Officer, who will take you through the long-term outlook for BlueNord. Thank you.

Thank you, Miriam, and good morning to everyone. This quarter, I'm going to jump straight into the medium and long-term potential of BlueNord. We have a substantial discovered resource base with 2P reserves and 2C resources supporting the cash generation from the business, not only today and tomorrow, but also longer term. We currently have 173 million of 2P reserves, of which 148 million give us production today and 25 million of those 2Ps are approved and justified for development. This means that they have been progressed sufficiently such that they have been moved from 2C resources to 2P reserves. In addition, 23 million are defined as near-term 2C resources, meaning they're on a pathway to being converted into 2P reserves. And then, we have 10 million defined as longer term 2C resources. We also have a significant further potential to consider, especially if the license is extended, as this adds up to 8 additional years of runway for the company. Our focus remains on maximizing the economic recovery from the DUC, meaning moving 2C resources into 2P reserves in a phased manner, which supports the longer-term cash flow generation from the business. The nonproducing reserves and resources mentioned on the previous page are represented here as high-graded projects. These are both right-sized development projects and also a set of infill wells. For the development projects, I'm going to start with Halfdan North and Valdemar Bo South. Both, as mentioned before, have been reworked to simplify the complexity of each project and reduce CapEx significantly. This means that even though you develop the projects in a way which delivered slightly less total volumes, each barrel is going to be more profitable compared to the original plan. This is also reflected in the improved CapEx outlook for the next 4 years, where value over volumes has been the key criteria. And while we continue to see a very strong commodity price environment today, with this approach to CapEx, we're also well set for the future and could sustain in a low price scenario. Then the third project, which will be the first one we sanction, is Tyra North. This is a tieback to the new Tyra facilities, further utilizing the efficient and new processing facilities, which we aim to backfill to the greatest extent possible. Tyra North is a material project for us. It's set to deliver almost 20 million barrels net to the company. We are step-by-step progressing towards FID, and during this quarter, we finalized the FDP, which is an important step in obtaining the governmental approval. For all the 3 projects, we expect the unit technical cost to be less than $20, and this includes both CapEx and the incremental OpEx. We also have a program of infill wells and a jack-up rig expected to commence work next year is going to carry out the drilling campaign in the DUC. Infill drilling is very cost efficient, and it has a development CapEx of less than $13. And it's also a very quick way of adding additional production. We have 2 planned wells on Halfdan, 1 on Valdemar, 2 on Svend, together representing 11 million barrels. And then lastly, on this page, you see the infill wells far to the right called additional potential. These are mostly wells on the Tyra or around the Tyra hub, where we see great potential for further infill drilling as the Tyra hub carries a significant potential, which we unlocked when we had first gas. And it is the combination of the infill wells and these 3 projects, which supports the production profile, I'm going to show you on the next page. In the production profile running to 2042, you see the impact of the existing business and the planned investment activities, which we now have an improved phasing of. We are expecting the production to stay around close to 50,000 a day well into the 2030s. This gives us a more predictable production, and it also supports cash generation from the business longer term. And with the volumes from the reworked projects being more profitable on a unit basis, you see the value over volume principle in effect. The cutoff in 2042, it reflects the current expiry of the license. But still on this date and without an additional 8 years of runway, we estimate to still be producing profitable around 50,000 a day. And then finally, of course, with an extended license to 2050, there is no doubt that further opportunities can be unlocked and developed. And we believe there is a strong rationale to do so such that BlueNord can continue to play a role in delivering into the energy needs of Europe. And with that, I will hand over to our CFO, Jacqueline, who will take you through the Q2 financials. Thank you.

Thank you, Cathrine. So as Cathrine said, I'll now take you through the financial results for the quarter and how the operational activities and long-term plan you have just heard about translate into cash generation and shareholder returns. So the important point for Q2 is that the underlying business is delivering. Miriam noted 2 key points earlier, planned shutdown activity affected Q2 production, but Tyra exited the quarter at a stronger level and supports a better second half outlook. Cathrine then showed the long-term opportunity in the DUC with a clear focus on value over volume, which supports lower future investment required to maintain the business. This financial section connects those points. We are managing short-term operational phasing, maintaining strong margins through our hedge book and using the resulting cash flow to strengthen the balance sheet and support material distributions. So with that context, let's start with the headline financial performance for Q2. At a headline level, Q2 again demonstrates the financial strength of the business. Revenue was $277 million, which is broadly in line with the prior year, but lower than Q1. This is primarily due to the planned shutdown activity at Tyra in the quarter. EBITDA increased to $147 million, and net cash flow from operating activities was materially stronger at $249 million. The cash flow performance reflects the benefit of increased commodity prices late in Q1 and for part of Q2, and linked to that, the unwinding of working capital build, which we saw at the end of Q1. The balance sheet remains robust. Liquidity closed the quarter at $546 million, including $336 million of undrawn RBL facility. And net leverage continued to decline to 1.6x by the end of the quarter. So the message is straightforward, even with planned operational downtime in the quarter, the business generated significant cash and exited Q2 with a strong financial position heading into the second half of 2026. I'll now go into more detail on the key drivers of this result starting with realized pricing and our hedging position. So our hedging program continues to do exactly what it was designed to do, downside protection for pricing, which provides cash flow visibility and reduces the impact of market volatility. For the remainder of 2026, 66% of forecast oil volumes and 68% of gas volumes are hedged through swaps and collars. In addition, we have downside protection on the majority of the unhedged 2026 volumes through put options at $75 a barrel for oil and EUR 40 per megawatt hour for gas. That structure is important in the current environment. As Euan covered at the start of the presentation, energy markets remain volatile and energy security remains firmly on the agenda. We are not trying to call the market. We are positioning the business so that cash flow is resilient through the cycle. With pricing protection in place, the next driver of financial performance is the cost base, and that is where the Tyra plant shutdown activity in Q2 impacts the result. So on costs, the headline is that unit operating costs were higher in Q2, but the underlying run rate remains around the target range. The increase this quarter was driven by the planned Tyra shutdown. That had 2 effects. First, around $6 million of additional maintenance costs; and second, lower production volumes in the quarter, which means the largely fixed cost base is spread over fewer barrels. So we should not read Q2 as a change in the underlying cost trajectory. When we exclude the additional shut-in expenditure and normalized for production, the cost base remains consistent with the target level we have been guiding to. This also links directly back to Miriam's operational update. As Tyra stabilizes and production improves in the second half, we expect unit operating costs to move back to the target level because higher volumes carry the fixed base more efficiently. That operating leverage is important because it is what converts stable production into stronger operating cash flow. This is on the next slide. Operating cash flow is the key metric for us because it is the metric that ultimately defines distributions. In Q2, net cash flow from operating activities was $249 million. That was after working capital movements. The quarter benefited from stronger commodity price environment late in Q1 and the first part of Q2 as well as the working capital unwind. So before working capital, operating cash flow was lower than Q1, which reflects the planned shutdown activity and the temporary cost increase we just discussed. But the broader trend remains clear, Tyra has changed the cash flow profile of the business, and as production stabilizes, margins improve. Now the tax loss position also continues to support this cash flow, of course, and this remains a positive factor, which we expect to continue into part of 2027. So the next part of the equation on cash flow is the capital intensity. And with the Tyra redevelopment complete, capital expenditure has stepped down materially, and we are reiterating the lower forward CapEx outlook. The range for 2026 remains between $40 million to $50 million. And looking further ahead, we expect 2027 to 2030 CapEx of around $100 million to $150 million per year, and that includes the maintenance CapEx. This is, of course, subject to project sanction and timing. The combination of stronger operating cash flow and lower capital intensity does create financial capacity to deleverage, to maintain liquidity and to return capital to shareholders. So that brings us to the liquidity position at the end of the quarter. We closed Q2 with a strong liquidity position of $546 million, including $336 million of undrawn RBL capacity. The bridge on the slide shows the main movements from Q1 to Q2. Strong operating cash flow more than offset capital investment, financing cash flows and the Q1 distribution paid in the quarter. Liquidity was also strengthened by the refinancing of BNOR16 through the issuance of the new BNOR18 bond, which I will cover in more detail on the next slide. So taken together, the cash balance and undrawn RBL gives us significant flexibility. That flexibility matters because it allows us to do 3 things: fund disciplined capital investment, maintain a conservative balance sheet and continue returning meaningful capital to shareholders. So with liquidity covered, let's turn to how we manage the capital structure. Capital management remains disciplined and proactive. Leverage has continued to decline, moving from 2x in Q2 last year to 1.6x at the end of Q2. That is in line with the target level we have been working towards of under 1.5x through cycle. The maturity profile is also strong. We have no near-term maturities, and this quarter, the new BNOR18 issuance further improves that profile, where we've refinanced BNOR16 and pushed out the maturity by around 2 years. The BNOR18 bond was a proactive refinancing step and the market was strong. We issued a new $400 million senior unsecured bond with proceeds primarily used to repay BNOR16. The transaction was multiple times covered and attractively priced at 7.875%. Importantly, the terms are aligned with our strategy, including the distribution framework. In other words, the financing structure supports the business we have and are building a stable cash-generative company with a conservative balance sheet and a commitment to shareholder returns. When we look at leverage, liquidity and maturities together, the capital structure is fit for purpose. It gives us resilience, but it also gives us flexibility. And that flexibility is what enables us to return meaningful capital to shareholders. So to close this section, Q2 shows that the business can absorb planned operational downtime, continue to strengthen financially and deliver material returns. As Tyra stabilizes in the second half of 2026 with lower forward CapEx and a fit-for-purpose capital structure, we are all -- we are well positioned to sustain returns. And with that, I'll hand back to Euan to take us through the final section on how we turn this platform into sustainable long-term value.

Thank you, Jacqueline. So before we open up to questions, I'd like to leave you with 3 key takeaways really. So firstly, on operations, the planned Tyra shutdown was completed in full. The field is already producing at record rates, and we are set on a path for stronger performance in the second half and beyond. Longer term, as Cathrine mentioned, we expect to see production at or around current levels into the 2030s with a portfolio that is underpinned by real identified projects and with our focus firmly on value over volume. Then secondly, on shareholder returns. So total distributions paid and declared now stands at $780 million, and we're continuing to deliver at the stated end -- or sorry, at the top end of our stated range. Our longer-term distribution policy is something that we expect to communicate in the second half of this year, but the principles will remain consistent, targeting an attractive return to shareholders. And then third, just on our outlook. So we have a high-quality, diversified portfolio at the heart of the EU, which is supplying energy that Europe increasingly values. It's at a lower emissions intensity than alternatives, and the potential of a license extension to 2050 only increases our runway further. So let me leave you with this. Of course, there's a lot more to come from our business going forward, but let's not lose sight of where we are today, record Tyra production, record cash flow generation and a record declared dividend. Let's now pause while any final questions come in, and then, we can come back and answer them. Thank you.

Thank you. So the first question, you have resolved the distribution limitation risk by refinancing the bond issue with covenants limiting distributions? Are there any other limitations on distributions? What is the distribution strategy?

No. So there are no other specific limitations on distributions beyond those in the unsecured bonds. We do have to comply with the RBL terms, which is that we have to be able to demonstrate forward liquidity, covering the distribution that we're about to pay. But in principle, while the business is positively cash flow generative, then we are able to meet that. The strategy going forward will continue to be based on the same principles that we've used throughout, which is we want to maximize the cash that we can sustainably return to shareholders. We do recognize that from 2027 onwards, the profile may look slightly different from the one that we have at the moment. And I think our real target when we announced our new policy is to put into place something that is sustainable. We've had 3 years, from '24 to 2026, of really outsized distributions delivered based on a number of things, Tyra being recently started up, relatively low CapEx because we had invested in Tyra and also the benefit of our tax loss position. Some of those things will change as we go into 2027 and onwards, particularly as we start to reinvest in the portfolio and that will likely change the quantum of capital that we're able to distribute. But the principle will always be the same, maximizing what we can return to shareholders on a sustainable basis and while maintaining a conservative capital structure.

Then, can we please have some news about the negotiations with the Danish government? When can we expect an agreement?

Yes. So after the election, we finally have a new government in Denmark. We have new ministers that have come into positions, and we have started the work discussing with them on what that looks like, but it's an ongoing discussion.

And do we sell oil to Asian countries?

No. So our oil is contracted with Shell and BP, and it's sold primarily actually into Denmark into the refinery there. So that's the majority, most of the time.

Can you remind us of the drivers for the new distribution policy? What parameters are on the table, payout basis, floor, buybacks versus cash, et cetera? And what is the time line?

So let me start with the end of that. So the time line is that we expect to announce the new policy in the second half of this year. I think at or around Q3 is probably a reasonable assumption. On the parameters for that policy, I think it is reasonable to say that while we haven't fully determined what it will look like, I would expect that the payout basis at least would be linked quite closely to what we have already done, which is effectively cash generation. So you are generating cash and you're returning some portion of that subject to the caveat that I made in answering the first question, which is that we will -- or we do expect to have slightly higher CapEx from 2027 onwards, as we reinvest in the projects that will keep our production around about that 50,000 barrels a day level. And you shouldn't expect us putting a floor in place. The reason why we've been comfortable particularly through '24 to '26 in setting a high payout ratio is that it is based on cash flow generation. The challenge with the floor is that in some periods, you can end up in a place where your distribution policy requires you to pay out more cash than you've generated, which is very clearly not what we want to do. And on buybacks versus cash, our policy at the moment is flexible enough to allow us to do both. We have focused on cash returns because generally speaking, that has been what our shareholders have told us that they prefer. However, it is also market dependent. So if there are opportunities to buy back shares, then it may be that we do that. But I think you can assume going forward that it will still predominantly be a distribution that is made in cash.

And are there any plans to grow the business through acquisitions given the liquidity, including undrawn RBL at the end of Q2?

So we have been consistently looking at opportunities in the market that we think could be additive to our portfolio. I think the first thing to say is that we have a fairly strict set of criteria. We didn't run through it this time, but I think the main thing for us is that it needs to be accretive to our near-term distribution profile. To the same principle when we talk about distributions or anything like that, we're very, very focused on what is the return that we are able to make to shareholders. So we have a strict set of criteria, which means that any acquisition that we do shouldn't be seen as something that is reducing the dividend. What that means is that it's a relatively small opportunity set that we are looking at, but we do think that there are attractive opportunities out there, and we have been consistently looking at things that there are. The reality of M&A is that you can put a lot of work in, and it takes some time to get to a deal that you can announce, but I think it's fair to say that it is an ongoing process, and it is something that people should think about subject to the very important caveat, it has to be accretive to our near-term distributions.