Cementir Holding N.V. (CEM) Earnings Call Transcript
February 8, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Cementir Holding Full Year 2022 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Marco Maria Bianconi, Head of Investor Relations of Cementir Holding. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Good afternoon and good morning, and welcome to Cementir Holding Preliminary 2022 Results and Industrial Plan Update Conference Call. I'm here with Francesco Caltagirone, our Chairman and Chief Executive. Good afternoon. So I'm going to go through 12 slides presentation, which has been distributed and then I will leave the floor to any questions you may have to our Chairman and Chief Executive. Starting with Slide #3 with the highlights. As you know, from June '22, Turkey is considered hyperinflationary, and therefore, results as of December 31, 2022, are prepared according to IAS 29 accounting principle. Revenues for the year reached a record of EUR 1.7 billion, up 27% year-on-year. Excluding IAS 29, the number is up 26.5%, driven mainly by price increases. Overall, volumes were slightly down for the year, around 2.7% in cement, around 5.8% in RMC and around 5.3% in aggregates. EBITDA again reached a record level of EUR 335.2 million, up 7.8% year-over-year. Excluding IAS 29, EBITDA was EUR 355 million, up 14.2%, including EUR 17.8 million of one-off positive impact. There was a higher EBITDA in main regions, namely Denmark, Belgium, Turkey, U.S. and Egypt and a lower EBITDA in Asia Pacific and Sweden. EBIT reached EUR 206.3 million, up 4.3% year-over-year. Excluding IAS 29, was actually up 19.1% to EUR 235.6 million. Profit before tax reached EUR 238.3 million, up 38.5%. Excluding IAS 29 effect, it would have been up 43.9% to EUR 247.6 million. Net cash position reached EUR 95.5 million from a net debt position of EUR 40.4 million as of December 31, 2021. This means that the company has generated around EUR 136 million free cash flow year-on-year, including IFRS 16 impact and EUR 28 million of dividend distribution. Turning over to Page 2, our guidance. A necessary note of caution. Clearly, this guidance does not entail any COVID-19 crisis or further geopolitical tension and is given excluding IAS 29 and any extraordinary items. We expect for 2023 to reach to actually exceed EUR 1.8 billion of revenues, to reach an EBITDA in the range between EUR 335 million and EUR 345 million, to exceed EUR 200 million of net cash position and a CapEx of around EUR 113 million. Going to the next slide, just a few highlights about our '23-'25 industrial plan update. On Page 6, you can see that our strategy is unchanged. We keep aiming at a sustainable growth strategy to create value for all shareholders, which is based on 5 main pillars. One is sustainability with EUR 86 million roughly of sustainability CapEx over the period. We want to deliver on our carbon reduction target, which I will detail in a second. We want to keep leveraging on our state-of-the-art technology, FUTURECEM. We want to push towards product and value chain circularity, and we are also exploring and implementing a carbon capture technology in Denmark. The second pillar is innovation. I just mentioned FUTURECEM technology, but we are also launching a range of new high-added value solutions to our InWhite Solutions platform. The third pillar is competitiveness. We want to keep improving profitability, operational efficiency and digitalization drive. That spans from lean manufacturing and logistics to eProcurement, smart maintenance and integrated digital sales. In terms of growth and positioning, we want to keep optimizing our industrial footprint. We want to keep our white leadership on a global basis. We want to reinforce our vertical integrated platform, namely in the Nordics, in Belgium and in Turkey. We want to further develop our trading business and be selective and opportunistic in any M&A in the core business. Last but not least, people and organization. We have implemented a Zero Accidents policy throughout the organization. We are heavily investing in developing human capital. We have a leadership program and a talent management program and succession plan ongoing. Moving to the next couple of slides of sustainability. You can see on Page 7 that we keep our net zero ambition by 2050, but looking at the medium term to 2030, we have actually upgraded our targets of carbon emissions reduction, which go beyond what are the limits of the European Taxonomy. The new limits, the new targets that we've planned for grey cement are 460 kilogram of CO2 per tonne of cement, which is minus 36% from 718 and for white cement to reach 738 kilogram of CO2 per ton from 915, which is a 19% reduction. The previous road map was contemplating a 25% reduction in Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions. Those targets are validated by science-based target initiatives. As far as the industrial plan, we are clearly putting a yearly reduction -- CO2 reduction targets by plant, and we are also embedding the targets of ESG and carbon reduction into our short-term and long-term incentive plan. Slide #8, just to visualize the reduction targets for both grey and white cement, which I have just mentioned. You can see that this is also achieved through a reduction in clinker ratio, which you can see at the bottom of both tables. The clinker ratio goes from 82% to 64% in grey cement and from 82% to 78% in white cement. Moving to the next page, on Page #9, just to highlight that this decarbonization drive, it really is implemented across the value chain of the organization, starting from raw materials where we are using more and more calcined clay in our production process. The use of fly ash and limestone and other cementitious products, the increase of circularity of materials and process waste recycling, which are very, very important. Also energy is clearly a key factor in our process. We are switching to natural gas and biomass in Aalborg from 2025. We are increasing significantly the alternative fuels usage. We're pointing to district heating and green power to lower -- further lower the carbon footprint. As far as production, we are upgrading our plants. We are also reducing, as you've seen, our clinker ratio is in our cement. We are investing clean -- kiln heat consumption reduction and waste heat recovery gear, and we're also using more and more predictive maintenance. As far as logistics, which is a big part of our value chain, we're increasingly using hybrid trucks. We are also optimizing networks and routes and using eProcurement more and more. Clearly, these are on the overriding theme of the FUTURECEM technology and the use of carbon capture technology in our organization. Going to the detailed figures on Page 10. You can see here, on the right hand side, the breakdown of maintenance and expansion CapEx year-by-year and also the sustainability CapEx. You can see that the cumulative amount we're going to spend in the year in the plan is EUR 86 million of investments. The main initiative are a kiln upgrade in Gaurain in Belgium, the introduction of natural gas in Aalborg, facility upgrades for FUTURECEM in Aalborg, waste heat recovery in Turkey, and also alternative fuels in Izmir and ongoing digitalization of main processes. Moving to the last couple of slides, on Page 11. You can see here the financial targets of our industrial plan. Starting on the left-hand side from the 2022 actual results, ex IAS 29 and ex nonrecurring items, you can see that the target by 2025 is to grow sales between 5% and 6% to a target of around EUR 2 billion and to grow EBITDA faster by around 6% compounded from EUR 337 to over -- to around EUR 400 million by 2025. The EBITDA margin is broadly unchanged around 19.3% and the other yearly CapEx, including sustainability CapEx is around EUR 110 million. The target is then to reach around EUR 500 million -- actually exceeds EUR 500 million of net cash by the end of 2025. That means a cumulative free cash flow generation of around EUR 400 million, assuming a dividend payout ratio between 20% and 25%, so a growing dividend as well. And in comparison with the previous plan on Page 12 to finish my presentation. As you can see, we have a slight decline in the compounded growth rate of sales, but on the opposite side, an acceleration of EBITDA growth from 5.3% to 5.9% in the new plan. Yearly CapEx is broadly unchanged. And clearly, there is a higher net cash position at the end of the plan. So continued significant cash generation and dependable growth trajectory. Thank you for your attention. I'd then like to turn over to Mr. Caltagirone for any question you may have. Thank you.
Good afternoon. Before starting the question section, I would like to add something. As you probably have seen, we have more or less reached this year the result of our industrial plan of 2024. So with 2 years in advance, except for the net cash position because it was, let me say, the sum of 3 year [indiscernible] impossible. We have reached any way a net cash position that is better nearly 50% than what forecasted for this year. We have in our plan either -- I mean, in the new plan '23 to '25, an average cost of the CO2 of around EUR [ 80 ] and average [indiscernible] per year of around 300,000 tonnes. And what I can say from now is that with this cash, besides a natural increase of the dividend that I expect, for example, for the 2022, should be that the General Assembly, as you know, that should approve, but probably we can expect to increase nearly 20% from what we distributed on 2021. And we are starting to see, let me say, opportunity in invest the money to decrease the energy intensity of our, let me say, group special cement in Europe and outside. As I said various times before, it is difficult today with this huge volatility of price in energy or electricity and also on coal price, the [ world ] -- and also the price of CO2 and the technology that today is not proven for carbon capture to make a sort of effective acquisition policy for the medium and long term. We -- if you consider that in 2019, our energy cost, both electricity and solid fuel was around EUR 190 million. And this year, is expected above -- well above EUR 400 million. You understand that probably some investments that 2 or 3 years ago, were and, let me say, affordable in terms of return on investment and now becomes very interesting in this, let me say, with this point of view. And so let's say that if we are able with our investment to decrease the energy intensity besides the fluctuation and the volatility of the price, I think that we can expect to have a higher return on investment with less cash out. So I expect that probably and in part, it is part of the growth of the profitability of this plan is the fact that we can reduce probably several millions or tens of millions of our energy cost that will allow our EBITDA to increase. That's another probably things that is not written here is that also besides a very good cash performance, especially in the second part of the year, we also expect for 2022 compared to 2021, a decrease in the tax rate of nearly 5 points. This is due especially from a different mix of, let me say, the profit also because last year, we had some one-offs and also because now it is, let me say, we think with this -- better fine-tune our balance sheet. That's all. And so now I am ready together with Marco to answer your question. Please go ahead.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Emanuele Gallazzi with Equita.
A couple of questions from my side. The first one is on the guidance for 2023. Can you give us more granularity on the main assumption in terms of volume and the pricing? It seems strong pricing entering in 2023, while volume is slightly down, but let me say, more color on this will be useful. The second question is still on 2023. You are guiding for a substantially flat EBITDA year-on-year, but can you help us understand the dynamics that you expect quarter-by-quarter? I just try to understand if you expect a softer first half and then a recovery in the second half or something more, let's say linear. And my last one is on Turkey. Can you give us an idea of what you are assuming for Turkey in your business plan in terms of EBITDA evolution for the coming years?
Starting, I mean, we see that 2023 -- this has been forecasted also from the major central bank so far. We expected -- we are expecting as the soft lending of the economy and what we have already seen in the last quarter, some softness, especially in the consumption in every market. And we continue to see this probably in the first quarter. You know that the [ first ] quarter is heavily impacted by the [indiscernible] and by also maintenance. So January has been in line with our forecast. And we are seeing, let me say, also the range that we gave for 2023 is close to the recurring EBITDA that we reached that year. So I think that the main answer is this year, we were able to increase the price in a solid way in 2022. We expect 2023 to have a sort of a mild market in terms of quantity across all the value chain from cement, ready-mix and aggregates, but we continue to see a solid base for the price. I repeat that our pricing model in Europe is, let me say, linked to the CO2 price. So we don't have risk and we transfer every month, the average price that we have for the CO2. And for example, also in Belgium, it's both for CO2 and electricity. So besides a huge gap in quantity, now we are in January. So it's the first month. I don't think that there are special threats to, let me say, this number. We see a better, let me say, a growth during '24 and '25. But this is, let me say, commonly share that probably we expect that the old economy, if also the war between Russia and Ukraine decrease the intensity, should, let me say, help, especially the energy market to stabilize. On Turkey, Turkey is a sort of wildcard this year, even with 90% roughly of inflation and 25% of devaluation, we have been able to reach, let me say, in euro, an EBITDA that is above EUR 20 million. So taking consideration that besides unfortunately, the bigger [indiscernible] that for sure, in the second part of the year will have some, let me say, probably consequences in the consumption. It affects only our plant in [ Elazig ]. The other 3 plants are far from, let me say, this area. But in the half of May, there will be the election in Turkey. And so we don't know what will happen. As you know, if Erdogan after 20 year, will lose power, there might be big shift also in the -- probably, the economic politics. But if he will able to keep, let me say, the power, probably nothing change. In our forecast, actually, we believe that in 2025, Turkey should be virtually out of the IAS 29 because IAS 29, you have to apply when you have the accumulated inflation of 3 years that is above 100%. We expect to have 40% this year, 25% next year and 15% in 2025. So if this, let me say, forecast will be respected, Turkey should be out of IAS 29 in 2025. So for this reason, we decided to give in continuity with the previous industrial plan, the plan without IAS 29. So everyone, each quarter can apply just to Turkey, the IAS 29 that at the end of the game, transfer some EBITDA; two, the financial income and the change more or less nothing in the profitability of the company. The main thing that in the normal situation, you use the average exchange rate each month. In the IAS 29, you are forced to use the exchange rate at the end of the year. That is quite inatural because even in January, we traded both and sold Turkish lira. And so we don't just keep Turkish lira and change at the end of the year. So we think that for the balance sheet, the IAS 29 is alterating, but anyway, you are able to every quarter to adjust the balance sheet of the industrial plan, and this is, I think, is the better way and more transparent. I don't remember if I have answered all your question.
The next question is from Matteo Bonizzoni with Kepler.
Yes. I would like to know in general what kind of price versus cost assumption you are modeling in your plan because we see that there is no margin expansion. So in other words, the margin which you project in 2025 is 19%, which still remains 3 percentage points below -- 2 to 3 percentage points below the peak cost in 2021, which was 22%. So in general, I would like to know what are your expectation on the ability of the industry to keep solid pricing, also in a scenario in which some cost factors are going to moderate. And on this [indiscernible] if you can remind us the degree of inflation, which we are going to experience on the variable energy costs, fuel and energy 2022 at the group level, given the expiry of some hedging? So this is the question, price cost and your increase of costs on 2023, given the fading of some hedging? And then just to confirm in the plan, one area of improvement is that you have around [ 50 million ] lower cost on CO2. That's correct calculation compared to the previous plan. And last question is a recurring question. I understand that maybe the answer -- that cannot be a precise answer. Really, you have a point that you will reach EUR 0.5 billion of net cash by 2025, which is, I call it an embarrassing [indiscernible] problem now, let's say that's embarrassing just because it creates a sort of a mathematical inefficiency on your financial structure, but it's clearly something good to have. So again, the dividend is going to remain pretty limited. What is your mindset here? I guess that sooner or later, you would like to do some acquisitions.
Yes. So starting from your last question, I also answered partly when I started. My intervention is that with this cash today, we are [indiscernible] with this cash and with the price of the energy, average price that we have around the world that we are starting to see more opportunity in investing to decrease the energy intensity of our group. As I said, we were at EUR 190 million cost of energy both electricity and coal in 2019. In 2023 is full -- is well above EUR 400 million. So we are expecting -- we have, let's say, a quite long queue of even big investors that today want, let me say, to produce energy for us -- a sustainable energy for us and make a sort of take-or-pay contract long term at, let me say, a different price or average different price that we have today. So there might be in some projects, some, let me say, good opportunity to have quite big return instead of, let me say, I mean, just for these 3 years, we are investing in expanding the perimeter because as you say, and you are aware today, it's very difficult to evaluate in the medium and long-term cement, steel factory because of, let me say, the energy this CO2 and -- so I think that now that also we have positive rates and also in some part of the world, the rates are between 4% and 5% to have this cash can produce also some extra profit. The other question, sorry, Marco?...
Our CO2 shortage.
Yes, our CO2 policy, as I say, is to save as much as is possible. As you know, in our -- besides the direct production of CO2 linked to the cement or to the clinker production, we can lower this by changing the mix or the receipt of the cement, FUTURECEM is one of these. We can use cement produced till 2025. That is at the end of the year, the industrial plan to use cement from Turkey or from Egypt and also to have some of the investments, especially in Belgium, where we are starting to fully revamp our line that will allow us to increase the alternative fuel from 30% to above 70%. And this will [indiscernible]. On the price assumption, the price went up for both energy price and also CO2. CO2 is now higher than a few months ago. Today is around 90. So I don't believe, frankly, that we should, let me say, have a pressure downward from CO2. Energy prices, it is true that we hedged, but is also -- last year, but it's also true that we continue to hedge, and we are partly adjective till 2026. So I mean that for this year, I mean, in this industrial plan, we don't expect major volatility in our numbers coming from electricity because we are hedged above 80%, both in electricity and in coal. I mean, you know that -- and here, you can really see that even if we increase the sales of nearly EUR 400 million and we expect to continue to grow up to EUR 2 billion, the EBITDA margin is more or less in line or lower compared to 2021. First, this means that we increased the price more or less in line with the increase of the raw material, including transportation. We expect and we have already included in this year, also some, let me say, increase -- salary increase in various parts of the world. And this affect or should affect the cost. I want also to repeat that this EBITDA margin decrease, let me say, is not real because now we have to, let me say, for accounting policy to include the CO2 in our, let me say, sales. And so a part of the sales are, let me say, with no margin because I have to, let me say, try and resell the CO2 to the customer. And so on this part, it's like the VAT, you don't have margin on the VAT. So for everybody. So I believe that, frankly speaking, our 22% margin, it is the same of nearly 20% because 2% is a sort of drifting made by the CO2 in accounting policy for everybody. So this is not that we believe that the margin, it is, let me say, decrease is that part of the increase -- of the huge increase of the sales, it is due of the CO2 for sure. If the CO2 will go to EUR 120, EUR 130 in the next month or year, this increase will, let me say, put a bit pressure in the EBITDA margin. If the CO2 will go lower, you will see that the EBITDA margin will increase more or less in a linear way. So let's say, this company, but I believe also other companies are not less profitable. It's just a matter that we have one tax that, let me say, started to be, let me say, accounted from 2022 and for the next year.
Matteo, just going back to your point, you're right on your conclusion that on the CO2 shortage because as Mr. Caltagirone pointed out, this new drive and renewed CO2 reduction led us to reduce the annual shortage by 40% from 0.5 million to 300,000 tonnes. So if you apply the average price of CO2 to the lower shortage in the new industrial plan, you get to the number you mentioned before roughly.
Even if -- I must say that last year, in our industrial plan, we had an average price of EUR 60. Now the average price is EUR 80 for '23, [ EUR 82 ] for '24 and EUR 90 for '25.
The next question is from Alessandro Tortora with Mediobanca. So the next question is from Tobias Woerner with Stifel.
[Foreign Language] Tobias, Stifel. Firstly, I'd like to understand a little bit, I came a little bit late when you talked about the energy cost impact. When you refer to the EUR 400 million, did you mean in 2022? Or was that a forward-looking statement? And then as part of that question, with gas prices and electricity prices falling since the beginning of the year, are you likely to benefit from this? You've mentioned last year that you have long-term contracts. So you avoided the worst of the downside. Should we assume that you will you forgo the best of the upside in that context? So maybe give us a little bit of color on how we should see this? And then secondly, with regard to your housing exposure. We just heard from a [indiscernible] company, highly exposed to housing that they're going to struggle in 2023 in terms of the top line. Just give us a sense where and to what extent that could potentially have an impact on you?
Thank you, Tobias, for your questions. The EUR 400 million is the cost that we expect in 2023 compared to EUR 190 million in 2019, so nearly double the model. We expect more than EUR 400 million this year. As you -- we are, let me say, hedged and continue to hedge during the downturn of the price. So the hedged work, [ a magnificent ] way compared to other, let me say, also competitor. And we have, let me say, I think this very good result. On the other hand, let's say that if the price also go far below our hedging, let's say, create a sort of the economy in terms that our plan and our expectation, it is made with the average cost that we expect. We are hedged, as I say, nearly 80%. For sure, if the last 20% can be acquired at a much lower price can be, let me say, an upside to this, let me say, to this number for sure. But we are just in January. So let's, let me say, wait a bit and after usually Easter, we -- it makes sense. We also make a sort of review of our business plan sort of 4 plus 8, so just to be aware if we are aligned everywhere with the cost and the sales and -- but as I said at the beginning of the call, January is in line in terms of quantity and also financial with our, let me say, guidance for 2023. And so housing exposure...
On the -- I take the last one on the housing exposure. As you know, given our white cement importance within the product portfolio, we clearly have some housing exposure mainly to housing renovation, repair and maintenance rather than new builds, to be honest. But still, clearly, this will have an impact. I mean, clearly, there are a number of forecasts out there and there is some evidence that higher interest rates and more expensive mortgages are causing -- having an impact on housing transactions and new dwellings. And this is particularly the case in certain areas. Sweden is one of them, but it's for us, it's not particularly big as an exposure. We don't see a dramatic change or negative scenario, and this is not what we are forecasting anyway in our budget and industrial plan. For sure, as the Chairman said before, probably 2023 is going to be a bit of a year of 2 halves, with the Q1 and Q2 a bit tougher on a quarter-on-quarter basis compared to last year and a mild recovery for the second half. So obviously, in our forecast and our budget given that we are forecasting flat to slightly down volumes, we already are expecting some slowdown in housing activity, but the central case is not of any dramatic fall off. That's the one thing. The other thing is that in certain key countries, like, for example, Denmark, we are exposed to a number of sectors, not only housing but to infrastructure, to commercial and to -- so to all segments. And so in one way or the other, we are able to manage this exposure. But overall, the central case is Q1 or Q2 a bit tougher, recovery in the second half, but no collapse in housing activity.
If I may add one or two questions, if I may. Freight rates have collapsed around the world. And as long as you've got an export import business, i.e., you control the import terminal at the other end as well, you should, [ in theory ], benefit from this in terms of the margins you make in your exports or your traded cement. Is that a fair observation? And if so, does that have a material impact on your global traded white cement?
Let's say that we are, as I said before, we reached the number of that we were forecast -- we would plan to reach in 2024. So we have done in 2022, a big jump. So let's say, we are still in a positive mood. And also, let me say, the freight rate are, let me say, some is going down, but also, I think, to be prudent, we would like also to consolidate this result. And for this also, the guidance seems not so bullish. But even this year, we were expecting the guidance was 305 to 315 at the end, the recurring EBITDA is around EUR 335 million, EUR 336 million. So it's well above. So we want to start the year, let's say, with this cautiousness. We -- you are aware also that from the Central Bank, they are shifting, let me say, also their view from a mild recession to a sort of no recession or just a transition year. So we have the same mood. We expect that probably what we might partially lost in the first half could be recovered in the second half. So -- and more or less, let me say, this is our view. It is difficult, let me say, with a war and now a bigger earthquake impacting Turkey. That on one side, for sure create opportunities in the, let me say, months ahead or probably a year for some increasing consumption. On the other hand, in that part of Turkey, there is also quite a bit part of production of cement that is exported. So I don't know if the export market and especially the European import market can be affected because some big plants owned by other competitors are exactly in that area. So I really don't know today, but take in account that till 2 years ago, Turkey exported nearly 10 million tonnes of cement. In the last couple of years, Turkey is exporting 30 million, 3-0 million of cement because a lot of players in Europe prefer to buy cement and save CO2. But if some of this cement is not available because the plant needs to be, let me say, revamp the order, we have an extra demand for cement in that area because, I mean, the part of the earthquake is quite huge, and we are just at the beginning. This might affect the price because in Europe, every producer is limited by the quarter that received of CO2. So nobody is pushing to produce more. If -- even when there is a sort of lack of product that can be imported only from Turkey and partly from Egypt, but the bigger exporter is Turkey. I mean, this probably might affect the market, the European market positively in terms of that less cement can flow. The white cement market, for sure, if the rates will go down from the moment that 80% of our cement is exported can have some benefit, but let's say that's part of this benefit are already included in our, let me say, likely scenarios for 2023.
The next question is from Alessandro Tortora with Mediobanca.
I think now you're hearing me, okay. I have 3, 4 question, if I may. The first one is if you can elaborate a bit more on Denmark and also the contribution, let's say, at the [indiscernible] level for Denmark in 2022, also because, let's say, [indiscernible] started, let's say, with the soft pricing and therefore, I would like to understand, let's say, the exit [ case ] level for the EBITDA margin for these key countries for you. That's the first question. The second question is on Egypt. Here, I would like to understand or basically to remember what's your view and what's your point on the devaluation the country recently experienced? And if you can confirm to us that if I remember well, around half of your business was U.S. dollar-denominated and therefore, in theory, okay, you should, let's say, [indiscernible], okay, selling externally in U.S. dollar? The third question is, if you can come back a little bit on the energy spending. So if you take as a reference, is around over EUR 400 million of energy bill for you, the assumption, let's say you make in 2025, you basically to have, I don't know, a certain level of energy spending and for -- I would like to understand the sort of let's say, decrease [indiscernible] line. And the last -- the last question is, as you mentioned before, considering the cash you're going to generate, if you can help us also to understand the impact you see on, let's say, the net financial, let's say, items below the decline if you see, let's say, overall, a neutral level basically, you're going to expect to reinvest some of this money going forward.
I'll start from the last question, for sure, we might -- we are expecting to have a positive financial flow from the cash that starting from this year we will have. Part of the cash that is also the working capital cycle and the investment cycle, so the availability of the cash, as you know, real. But then during the quarter, you have more cash or less cash, but for sure, now we have returned on average return cash and the more this cash is piled up, the more, let me say, return depending on the currency that we own because partly is euro, partly are in Nordics, partly is in dollars, in Australian dollar also and in Chinese yuan. Regarding the devaluation in Egypt, let's say, as it happened in Turkey today, we see that for the export is positive because it lower your cost. And then in Egypt, there are only 2 white producer and also I think that in euro terms, we should be able to defend the profitability even if -- or let's say, to increase the internal price because, as you know, most of the price for cement is energy, and then there is also [indiscernible] the dispatching and then you have salary. But let's say, we don't expect a major, let me say, difference. On the profitability of Denmark, we see, let me say, is stable, even a bit of increase during 2023 because we'll change the mix of our, let's say, clients. There are some big projects that will start during the year that should, let me say, balance the, let me say, less demand from the private sector. So for this reason, we think that -- let's say that in this 3-year plan, I mean, the Nordics will be more or less stable because, let's say, you know that the real estate market is very high. So for sure, we especially with the rate -- mortgage rate that increased, we expect and we're already seeing a downturn in demand, but on the other side, you have to think about that there is a push. This is everywhere for the energy class of the house to requalify, to save, let me say, heating. And so we see less demand for new real estate, a bit more demand for renovation, especially for energy issue for the single, let me say, unit. And we see a bit of increase in infrastructure. So more or less, in our, let me say, forecast even up to 2025, we see the profitability coming from Nordics in general, not only Denmark stable.
Okay. Okay. And on the energy spending side, sorry, yes.
Yes. On the energy, we -- on our, let me say, forecast and the number that I can give you is that we see that compared to 2022, in 2023, we should see a decrease in the [indiscernible] of around 20%. In the freight rate, we think that already in 2022, we have seen a big jump, a big downturn. So we are expecting in 2023, up to 2025, a stable situation. We think that starting from this year, we should see, as is already happening, a decrease in the gas price and followed by a decrease in the electricity price, but also we have to take in account that the economic forecast for Europe and [ major ] country is for a mild recession. If we don't have a mild recession, on the other hand, we will have higher consumption of electricity. And so on one side, we are happy because the consumption of cement or everything will be higher, but I also expect that the market -- the electricity market anyway is tight, besides -- I mean, there is this transition that started, and it will take years. And I don't think that we will see the numbers that we saw in the last decade, probably never. I think that if electricity can, let me say, plateau around [ EUR 100 per megawatt ], it will be a nice price. Now we are defending the market, EUR 160, EUR 140. So depending where you are and if you buy spot or if you buy long term, and we see that, let's say, anyway at 10 to 5 -- between 5% and 10% of decrease in 2023 as an average compared to 2022. That is not the average price of the electricity that the peak was at nearly 1,000 is compared to what we paid in 2022. So we think that we will pay. This doesn't mean because we [indiscernible]. So we think that we [indiscernible] depending on the zone, the geography from 5% to 10%. This doesn't mean that the electricity will go down or might go down even further or can go up because, let's say, more or less for us, with 80% of hedge is a fixed price for this year.
Okay. Okay. And sorry, but just a follow-up on what you mentioned before considering the contribution of Nordics in the -- let's say, in this business plan. So basically, if we need to think about the sort of bridge of this, let's say, EUR 60 million, almost EUR 60 million EBITDA increase in absolute term, considering the stable contribution from Nordics. I don't know, there are -- what's basically the main contributor you see going forward, considering that you mentioned [indiscernible].
Yes. Let's say, besides, I mean, let's say, as I say, Scandinavia, more or less EUR 5 million. I mean [indiscernible]. But the big contribution -- I mean, for the 2023, our numbers are more or less, let me say, stable or in line with 2022. We see that in 2024, but especially in 2025, we should have a big increase in probably in profitability made by the new kiln that will [indiscernible] Belgium. So Belgium will increase nicely the profitability because we'll change the [indiscernible] and also I don't know which will be the gas price, but also from the moment that by the end of this year in Aalborg and from 2024, we might use a substitute gas against coal. We will also save CO2, so the jump, especially in 2024 and 2025 in profitability is made by, let's say, a sort of an average increase of profitability, but the big chunk will come from Belgium because we are already started an investment of EUR 70 million and to have the possibility to go from 30% to 70% of alternative fuel and biomass. So I will shift from 70% of coal to 30% of coal. And this is, let me say, from the moment that [indiscernible] a big plant is from about 2 million tonnes of production will create some big savings.
The next question is from Giuseppe Grimaldi with BNP Paribas.
I have one question on your pricing. Around Q4, if you have increased further the price in Q4 compared to the level that we have seen in Q3. And the second question around your sales guidance for this year. You're guiding for more than EUR 1.8 billion. So it's something like 5% increase, more or less assuming that volumes are down, as you said, basically, most of the increase should come from pricing, I guess. Does it come from the price increase that you have already announced, or do you plan to increase further price into 2023?
I think that let's say, as if you imagine, last year, the price increase quarter-by-quarter in some area before and some area after. So it's a sort of follow through of this increase that we will see. As I said, we have the price that is linked directly to the CO2. So if the CO2 goes to 120, the price will increase automatically. So it's not a matter. So let's say, we have decided and also -- and in Belgium, this is also done for the electricity. So let's say that besides the hedge, the price can increase only if the CO2 increase for the Nordics and only if 1 of the 2 electricity or CO2 increase in Belgium, France. Then on the rest of the perimeter is, let me say, is different, it's affected by different -- mainly white cement and Turkey has also a fixed price for energy. And so we have the -- in Turkey, the increase is linked to the inflation. As you can imagine, with 90% of inflation, we increased the price nearly every 2 weeks. I don't know which kind of inflation we expect for Turkey, is expected to have this 40% in 2023. It's the half, but also we have the election in May. So the price will accordingly increase like, let me say, -- as I said, the remaining of the perimeter is white cement and let's say, the dynamic is quite different and also the pricing power is quite different. But we don't believe to -- that we can also ask to the customer another, let me say, big jump in the price if it is not sustained, but by a real increase in shipping, raw material, labor cost. I mean if we don't see a real inflation, let me say, or a persistent inflation, it is difficult to ask again, let me say, a price increase. We will see or we will see for, let me say, a few quarters because some of the price has been also updated during the last quarter of 2022. So compared to, let me say, the first quarter of 2023, let me say, you will have a naturally higher price, not because we increased now, but we increased before. So we see that now the market is -- I mean, in Europe is well balanced in terms of demand and supply. I say that Turkey, the big earthquake might affect probably in some part, the capacity of Turkey to export to Europe. And let's say, there might be some pressure up from the fact that Turkey will be less able to export or will use more cement for, let me say, internal matters.
And maybe just one last point is, you said, basically, you're going to expand EUR 400 million of energy and electricity cost in 2023. If you can remind us the same expense in 2022.
One moment, we are checking. We were at EUR 375 million.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from Bruno Permutti with Intesa Sanpaolo.
Two questions. The first one is on USA, if you can give us your view on your assumption for the U.S. market in 2023, and also [indiscernible] for the planned horizon, but I understand that [indiscernible] longer term is probably really good. And the second -- and the second question regards to the free cash flow generation, you expect over the plan period. So you cited possible investments to reduce energy costs. I would like to understand, is this something that could involve in most of this free cash flow generation. So in your plan, this could be something starting already in 2023? And how much of the free cash flow could be [ devoted ] to such goal?
No, I mean the -- our investments that support the energy consumption of the plant is already included in this plan. We might have, let me say, the possibility to create extra, let me say, profit margin revenues to invest in something, let me say that directly or indirectly is linked to our plant. For example, in Turkey, there is a new law that you can, let me say, if you are a self-consumer of energy with high intensity, without any permit, you can even have 500 kilometers build your photovoltaic -- solar field. And you can, let me say, just pay the transfer of the electricity. This, as you know, can change because today, I mean it seems that to produce 1 megawatt, its' about, let's say, EUR 800,000. And so, let's say, an average of EUR 80. If we pay the electricity EUR 200, let's say, there is a space to fill this kind of, let me say, strategy that will decrease the cost on one side and on the other side, create extra revenues. There are other opportunities even sustained by old banks or by the Central European banks were to decrease the energy intensity, you can probably have a nice return. So today, besides the plan that is already fully financed and fully include the savings that we have, I say that with the extra cash, there might be, from my point of view, in these 3 years, more opportunity, let me say, to decrease the energy intensity and so to have a better return in the cash, if I want to use this cash, this free cash flow instead of expanding the perimeter with the M&A. So this is my belief. And as you probably see, there is a very, very low M&A around the world with [ cement ] due mainly for this reason because nobody knows the profitability. Probably in the next 2 or 3 years, some player will build around a plant, a system to supply energy and probably even to sell energy outside because if you produce in excess and this might become a different -- a different way to produce, let me say, profit, let's say that you -- I don't know. In the future, we might have 10% -- 90% of our profit coming from building materials and 10% coming from energy that we sell outside. So it's premature because, as you know, there are a lot of project -- pilot projects for carbon capture. So is that just my feelings that I say I don't think that in the next 3 years, I would buy another plant or another competitor. Probably, I will start to invest starting from my plant and the location where I am, not in Brazil or other place where I am not in probably, in the energy sector because there are a lot of [indiscernible] also fiscal incentive that are linked to the heavy consumer of energy. So it's an opportunity, I'd say. But for sure, in the actual plan, nothing is included. But today, we are just started to think about. I want just to be transparent to align my investor that we might start to invest in this field, part of the cash. Then if we will find a big investment with good return, we will update for sure, the market. For the time being, we are just start to see some [ those shares ] brought by several banks and there might be opportunity, I think, more than in M&A.
Yes. Okay. And about your assumption on that U.S. market, can you elaborate a little bit?
In the United States, white cement, it's a slow market [indiscernible] up and slow down. It's a stable market. As you know, in the United States, we are the only producer, and we are going at full capacity. So the rest is imported. And usually, the market is [indiscernible] because if the market will go down a little bit less import partly made by us. So as you know, white cement because we just produce and sell white cement is not used for infrastructure. So it is mainly for renovation for architectural part. So we see stable to, let's say, increase 1%. But let's say, this is in terms of, let me say, quantity, I don't think -- I don't see major changes in the next 3 years in the consumption of white cement in the USA.
[Operator Instructions] Mr. Bianconi, there are no more questions registered at this time.
Okay. Thank you very much then for your interest in Cementir, and we wish you a pleasant rest of your day and evening.
Thank you. Have a nice evening. Bye. Bye-bye.
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