Home / Transcripts / CVRx, Inc. (CVRX) · January 26, 2023

CVRx, Inc. (CVRX) Earnings Call Transcript

January 26, 2023

NASDAQ US Health Care Health Care Equipment and Supplies earnings 44 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator operator
#1

Good day, and welcome to the CVRx Q4 2022 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Mr. Mike Vallie. Please go ahead.

Michael Vallie attendee
#2

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us today for CVRx's fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings conference call. Joining me on today's call are the company's President and Chief Executive Officer Nadim Yared; and its Chief Financial Officer Jared Oasheim. The remarks today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements about financial guidance. The statements are based on plans and expectations as of today, which may change over time. In addition, actual results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those identified in the earnings release issued prior to this call and in the company's SEC filings, including the upcoming Form 10-K that will be filed with the SEC. I would now like to turn the call over to CVRx's President and Chief Executive Officer, Nadim Yared.

Nadim Yared executive
#3

Thank you, Mike, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. I'll begin today's call by providing an overview of our fourth quarter and full-year performance, followed by an operational update, a review of our financial results by our CFO Jared Oasheim and then I will conclude with our thoughts on 2023 before turning to questions and answers. We are very proud of everything that our team accomplished in 2022. It has been a great year for CVRx. We made progress towards all our strategic initiatives, resulting in the increased adoption and utilization of Barostim despite several macro disruptions throughout the year. This is demonstrated by the fact that our worldwide revenue increased by 72% over 2021, primarily driven by our U.S. Heart Failure business' 108% annual growth. And the year was capped by a strong fourth quarter. Our worldwide revenue for the fourth quarter was $7.2 million, an increase of 96% over the fourth quarter of 2021. Performance in the quarter was driven by the continued expansion of our U.S. sales force and contributions from our marketing initiatives, which led to an increase in U.S. active implanting centers. In the U.S., our Heart Failure business generated $6.0 million, an increase of more than 121% over the fourth quarter of 2021. The increase was primarily driven by continued growth and expansion into new sales territories, new accounts and increased physician and patient awareness. When we went public, in the summer of 2021, we were in the very early stages of our commercial launch in the U.S. At the time, we expected to consistently grow this business in line with the investment in our commercial organization. We are very pleased with how this has played out with the fourth quarter being our 10th consecutive quarter of increasing U.S. Heart Failure revenue with average quarterly sequential growth in excess of 20% since the IPO. Now for an update on operational developments during the fourth quarter to support greater adoption and use of Barostim. Our focus areas were: one, the continued expansion of commercial infrastructure; 2, innovation of our product portfolio; and 3, the expansion of the clinical body of evidence. Starting with the continued expansion of our commercial infrastructure. During the quarter, we added 3 new territories, bringing the total to 26. We are excited with the quality of sales talent we have been able to attract and look forward to continuing to build upon that quality in 2023. During the year, we generated momentum with several of our marketing programs, including our direct-to-consumer or DTC pilot program, our new branding campaign and patient irrigation programs. The DTC pilot program has been successful to date and has had a positive impact on our U.S. business. To date, we have made minimal investments in localized DTC campaigns, and we have seen more than 100 patients undergo a Barostim implant and have a robust pipeline of potential patients with interest in learning whether they are candidates for the therapy. We plan to continue to optimize these campaigns to make them more cost effective as we evaluate whether to roll them out more broadly. Our second area of focus is the innovation of our product portfolio. During the second half of 2022, we launched Barostim NEO2 IPG, the second generation device, which reduces the size of the IPG by 10% and extends battery life by 20%, reducing the frequency of device replacements for patients and their providers. It is remarkable how the NEO2 extends longevity while employing a smaller footprint and allows for a streamlining of the implantation procedure. Our third focus of area is the expansion of our clinical body of evidence. The BeAT-HF clinical trial was designed to demonstrate that Barostim provides a mortality and morbidity benefit in addition to a reduction of symptoms of heart failure in patients with reduced ejection fraction. As previously announced, we accrued the required 320th event in the trial and are working to collect and monitor all the data. As a reminder, the primary endpoint is a mortality and morbidity composite endpoint, and we have pre-specified a few potentially meaningful secondary and ancillary endpoints and analysis. These include a hierarchical win ratio analysis, a few COVID sensitivity analysis and ways to account for the severity of hospitalization. While we and the Steering Committee are still blinded to the results but also based on how the data collection is progressing, we now believe that we will be in a position to unblind and share the data before the end of the first quarter of 2023. Our goal for this post-market trial is to broaden Barostim's labeling. We plan to submit the totality of the evidence in our corresponding analysis to FDA when we outline the data. Please note that FDA is the ultimate decision-maker on whether to allow additional claims and new labeling for Barostim based on its own evaluation of all the available data. FDA may also seek advice from a panel of independent experts. At this point, it is difficult to plan for a specific scenario. The results may produce a conclusion that is more complex and nuanced than a straightforward binary answer. In addition, we continue to make progress with BATwire, our ultrasound guided implant toolkit. In 2022, we added more sites and more patients into the clinical trial. As a reminder, we expect to complete the trial in 2024. We announced in late September that we added a veteran medical device executive, Kevin Hykes, to our Board of Directors. Kevin brings his business acumen and his decades-long experience in the field of cardiovascular implantable devices. Additionally, with the promotion of 4 leaders to the executive team, we now have 8 out of 10 of our executives promoted internally, showcasing the strength and depth of our talent bench at CVRx. In summary, we had a fantastic 2022 as we considerably expanded the adoption and application of Barostim as seen by 10 consecutive quarters of strong growth in our U.S. Heart Failure business. The year was topped off with a successful fourth quarter, during which we continued to push the growth of active implanting facilities in the United States, highlighting once more the benefits that Barostim can provide to both health care professionals and patients with cardiovascular disease. I'll now turn the call over to Jared to review our financials. Jared?

Jared Oasheim executive
#4

Thanks, Nadim. Total revenue generated in the fourth quarter was $7.2 million, which is an increase of $3.5 million or 96%, when compared to the same period last year. Revenue generated in the U.S. was $6 million for the fourth quarter, which is an increase of 109% over the same period last year. Heart Failure revenue in the U.S. totaled $6 million in the fourth quarter on a total of 193 revenue units, up 121% as compared to $2.7 million in the same period last year on 95 revenue units. The increase was primarily driven by continued growth in the U.S. Heart Failure business as a result of the expansion into new sales territories, new accounts and increased physician and patient awareness of Barostim. At the end of the fourth quarter, we had a total of 106 active implanting centers as compared to 46 at the end of Q4 2021 and 91 at the end of Q3 2022. At the end of the fourth quarter, we had a total of 26 territories in the U.S. compared to 14 at the end of Q4 2021 and 23 at the end of Q3 2022. Revenue generated in Europe was $1.2 million in the fourth quarter, which is an increase of 49% when compared to the same period last year. Total revenue units in Europe increased from 39 in Q4 2021 to 68 in Q4 2022. The revenue increase was primarily due to the lessening impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The number of sales territories in Europe remained consistent at 6 during Q4 2022. Gross profit was $5.7 million for the fourth quarter, an increase of $3 million when compared to the same period last year. Gross margin increased to 79% for the fourth quarter compared to 73% for the same period last year. Gross margin for the 3 months ended December 31, 2022, was higher due to a decrease in the cost per unit and an increase in average selling price, partially offset by a larger percentage of our revenue units coming from full systems versus battery replacements. Research and development expenses were $3 million for the fourth quarter, which is an increase of 70% when compared to the same period last year. This change was primarily driven by increases in compensation expenses due to increased head count. SG&A expenses were $14.1 million for the fourth quarter, which is an increase of 46% when compared to the same period last year. This was primarily driven by an increase in marketing and advertising costs associated with the commercialization of Barostim as well as higher compensation costs from increased head count. Net loss was $10.5 million or $0.51 per share for the fourth quarter as compared to a net loss of $10.6 million or $0.52 per share for the same period last year. Net loss per share was based on approximately 20.6 million weighted average shares outstanding for the fourth quarter and approximately 20.4 million weighted average shares outstanding for the same period last year. At the end of the fourth quarter, cash and cash equivalents were $106.2 million. Net cash used in operating and investing activities was $10.9 million for the fourth quarter compared to $7.6 million for the same period last year. We continue to believe we have enough cash on hand to reach cash flow breakeven without needing to raise additional capital. Now turning to guidance. As announced in early January, for the full year of 2023, we expect total revenue between $35 million and $38 million, gross margin between 78% and 79% and operating expenses between $76 million and $80 million. For the first quarter of 2023, we expect to report total revenue between $7.1 million and $7.5 million. I would now like to turn the call back over to Nadim.

Nadim Yared executive
#5

Thanks, Jared. Before opening the line for questions, I would like to discuss our key areas of focus for 2023 as we seek to drive the increased adoption and utilization of Barostim. First, the continued expansion of our commercial infrastructure, especially our direct sales force in the United States remains a top priority. We expect to continue hiring top talent throughout the year and are targeting a total of approximately 38 U.S. territories by the end of 2023 or on average, adding 3 new territories per quarter. In addition, we will continue to invest in marketing efforts to help drive increased awareness of Barostim. Outside of the U.S., we have added additional talent to our direct sales organization in Germany, and we continue to expect to add incremental head count in 2023 to support our commercial strategy in that region. Our second focus area is the expansion of our clinical body of evidence, both our post-market study of BeAT-HF and BATwire remain on track with our previous updates. In regard to BeAT-HF, we have been conducting this trial since early 2016. And here we are, 7 years later, we are looking forward to potentially unblinding the data and sharing the results with you before the end of this quarter. Looking ahead to 2023, we are very eager to accelerate the development of Barostim by utilizing the positive momentum we have built over the previous 2 years. While we are still very early in the commercial ramp and the market penetration, we are totally focused on the significant potential to provide treatment to as many patients as possible. And now I would like to open the line for questions. Operator?

Operator operator
#6

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Robbie Marcus with JPMorgan.

Robert Marcus analyst
#7

Maybe first, the cash burn is going to be -- it looks maybe a bit higher than last year based on the sales and OpEx guidance. And you talk about a pathway to profitability without further capital raises. How important is a positive readout from BeAT-HF to getting to that target? And any timeframes in terms of revenue or years out that we could be thinking about cash flow profitability?

Jared Oasheim executive
#8

Yes, Robbie, thanks for the question. So one thing that we've been consistent on is the model that we've built is under the assumption that we get a neutral readout from the morbidity mortality trial. And that's not based on us being pessimistic about the results. It's just us taking a conservative approach. And so when we say that we think we still have enough cash on hand to reach cash flow breakeven, it comes with that assumption that morbidity mortality is neutral. We haven't yet drawn a line in the sand for when -- publicly, when we're going to reach that cash flow breakeven point from a run rate perspective. But we do expect this to be the year where we see that cash burn start to flatline, to be similar where -- to the burn that we saw in 2022. And then from there, starting to see the overall burn start to drop on a quarterly basis.

Robert Marcus analyst
#9

If I just want to dream big and say it is a positive trial. How important has -- or how big a barrier has not having a mortality benefit been to driving physician adoption? And if it does have a positive, do you think we should be thinking more like a rapid improvement in adoption following? Or is there still -- would it have to wait for FDA labeling, so maybe a little time afterwards?

Nadim Yared executive
#10

Robbie, Nadim here. So thanks for the question, by the way. Listen, when we started this trial in 2017 [Technical Difficulty] it and 2016 started enrolling it, we powered it to win it, right? So we're still hopeful that the data will be [Technical Difficulty] a clear-cut simple yes answer to all of the questions below. That said, it's -- the certainty here is the time it takes to get the word out. First, we'll probably -- if there is a medical meeting, we'll do the announcement of the results during the medical meeting. But if there isn't one close by in terms of [ time ] where we have to sit on the data for too long. So we'd like to get it out as soon as possible. So we may end up doing basically [Technical Difficulty] event where we'll invite you and other people who wants to listen in and we'll present ourselves the data. But that does still get [Technical Difficulty]. So we'll have to wait for that medical meeting and do the presentation there via symposium or [Technical Difficulty]. After that, you also had heard those. One is the FDA labeling that would allow us to market the data. And the second is the publication of the [Technical Difficulty]. Surprisingly, FDA has been faster than most journals. The median time to publish a manuscript is in months. So those are the uncertain element that would make me hesitate to say, yes, we will see a pick up in 2023, [Technical Difficulty] backup in sales would happen in 2024. But based on your previous question, if the data is positive, we may decide to faster [Technical Difficulty] so paradoxically, we may burn cash a little bit faster earlier to follow that [Technical Difficulty].

Robert Marcus analyst
#11

Just last quick one for me. Is this something you're going to try and submit for a late breaker at ACC or do you think you'll miss the date there?

Nadim Yared executive
#12

Yes. Thanks for the question. We don't know yet. Thank you. The [Technical Difficulty] if you're still listening, the ACC deadline for late vehicle was -- has passed. And that's why we don't know. We don't know if the data will be ready [Technical Difficulty] unblinded, number one. And if we are, if they would accept us even after the deadline. Thank you, Robbie.

Operator operator
#13

And that will come from the line of Matthew O'Brien with Piper Sandler.

Matthew O'Brien analyst
#14

I don't know Nadim or Jared, which one of you this is for, but -- and I don't want to overstate this too much. But when I look at the unit number in Q4 versus the number of active centers that you had the last in Q3 and even in Q2, that productivity rate is down somewhat here in Q4. So can you just talk a little bit about why that's the case? And then the confidence in why those metrics improved so steadily, especially even in Q1 and all the way throughout 2023?

Jared Oasheim executive
#15

Matt, this is Jared. I can take that one. So as we look to the productivity for the accounts that we saw throughout 2022, part of this was driven by the success on the addition of new accounts driving the overall average productivity down. We've said early on that the -- right when an account starts, we see them treat 1 or 2 patients and then they push pause for a period of 3, 4, 5 or 6 months. They check out the results from a reimbursement perspective, but then also as to how the therapy is going with -- or doing with their patients. After they see that, then they start to pick up the pace on their own productivity. So the longer they're with us, on average, the more patients they are treating. So we still have confidence that the longer these accounts stay with CVRx, they're going to treat more and more patients based on the data that we've seen and collected over the last 3 years. But I think the challenge we're facing over the last couple of quarters is that we've exceeded expectations on the number of accounts we were expecting to add, which just drives that overall productivity rate down because of the newness of those new accounts.

Matthew O'Brien analyst
#16

So just to put a finer point on it, just because you were up 15 to 20 active centers in Q2 and Q3, respectively, that's the reason why that metric is down a little bit. And you're not seeing any change from trend line as far as utilization among those accounts as we're kind of exiting that 6-month window.

Jared Oasheim executive
#17

Yes, that's correct. Yes. We're still seeing the centers that have been with us for a couple of years, doing more than the centers that have been with us between 1 and 2 years, and they're doing more than the centers that have been with us less than 12 months.

Matthew O'Brien analyst
#18

And then we can get into margins and all the other stuff, which are positive updates, I guess, later. But the other question I did have was really on the DTC campaign. It seems like there's a lot of patients out there. And I know it's just a pilot study, but what are you seeing as far as running some of those studies getting in front of patients that could be good candidates for this and then transitioning them all the way through to potentially getting an implant.

Nadim Yared executive
#19

Matt, this is Nadim. Thanks for the question [Technical Difficulty] impact our DTC pilot and why we kept it as a pilot still for a little bit longer is to understand exactly those questions that you're asking. [Technical Difficulty] need to have no idea what form of heart failure they have. If they have an ICD or a CRT they think they have a pacemaker. And I am over generalizing because it's a disease that's harder to characterize. And when you look at our incidence rates that we calculated, you may have [ 1,000 ] new patients every year, that's about 4% to 5% of the heart failure patients overall. So it's a small percent of standard base -- it's a game of numbers, and we track every single click, every single patient when they provide us the information we try to get as much as possible medical condition as much as we are allowed to know. And if they are seeing their own physicians versus seeing a hospital [Technical Difficulty] to past diverge and if the hospital specialist they're seeing happen to be on a site, where we are already activated, as well as there [Technical Difficulty] and then it will go much faster on the other hand, much slower. So it's all of those uncertainties, Matt, that keeps us for the time being as a very [Technical Difficulty] nationwide across all centers.

Operator operator
#20

Our next question -- and that will come from the line of Margaret Kaczor with William Blair.

Margaret Kaczor analyst
#21

Just because BeAT-HF obviously is going to the short-term catalyst. I was just curious if you can walk us through any commercial or marketing changes that you would make based on, let's call it, 3 scenarios where the first is positive on morbidity, mortality or on all events, maybe in more gray area of numerical improvement in mortality, but not on events and then third is maybe a less good morbidity outcome or whatever gray area that would be less good that you would look at. How would that change your behavior, I guess, relative to the guidance that you have?

Nadim Yared executive
#22

Thank you, Margaret. Thanks for the question. Listen, of the 3 scenarios that you mentioned, let's start from the most negative to the most positive. The most negative, the data is neutral, there is no data [Technical Difficulty] what we're doing. Our plan is built on that scenario. As Jared just mentioned earlier, it's not that we don't believe that we will win. It's just -- you know what [Technical Difficulty] but I would like to establish a baseline that is conservative and consider all of the positive news as upside. If it's the positive trending positive, but not meeting the endpoint itself, then probably there'll be no change in our marketing [Technical Difficulty] sales strategy. Now if it's a clear cut partner where we met the mortality morbidity endpoint and that [Technical Difficulty] that FDA will give us the labeling that this device improves heart failures outcome, then [Technical Difficulty] that Jared and I, with the approval of our Board, we may decide to accelerate the [Technical Difficulty] in our sales and marketing efforts in the United States. And when that would happen, it will take time. You don't see [Technical Difficulty] us adding territories, you have to identify the talent, hire them, train them and so forth. So that trend will accelerate, but you will not see it overnight. [Technical Difficulty] answered your question?

Margaret Kaczor analyst
#23

And then I guess, [ piloting ] further on that, right? So the existing accounts who already have a good sense of training and patient use and history with Barostim, have you talked to them about what their expectations are for the trial and how they might change their utilization once the data is announced and that will -- also make one more and walk us through how they would view their TAM opportunity changing should one of those more positive scenarios come up?

Nadim Yared executive
#24

[Technical Difficulty] question. And now I wonder if I should have spoken with some positions about this. Number one, we instruct our sales force to be super careful and stick with [Technical Difficulty] FDA-approved labeling. So that's why they do not engage in speculative discussions regarding outcome. However, I could do that, explore that comment, getting feedback perspective. That said, there is one area where our TAM will increase if we hit the endpoint. When we negotiated the current labeling with FDA back in 2019, FDA was very clear that we have not met yet the mortality morbidity base because it was not what we are blinded for. And CRT devices, when they are a Class I indicated. So QRS above 150 and the presence of a left bundle branch lock they have the mortality morbidity benefit. FDA did not want physicians to prescribe a [Technical Difficulty] in those situations. So that's why in our calculation of the total addressable market, we excluded patients who are eligible or actually indicated for a CRT treatment. I believe that if we hit the mortality morbidity end point I know that we will ask FDA to remove that exclusion. And I believe that FDA will accept the exclusion because we should then let the physicians decide what therapy is more appropriate for their patients and the labeling would allow us then [Technical Difficulty] for those patients who are indicated for a CRT device. So that will increase the total addressable market [Technical Difficulty] to expand of how much, Margaret. But at the right time, probably during the discussion about the results we -- I'm speculating here, but I believe we'll be ready with the updated numbers of the total addressable market at the same time.

Operator operator
#25

Our next question. That will come from the line of William Plovanic with Canaccord.

William Plovanic analyst
#26

A lot of them have already been answered, so I think I'll stick with some guidance and P&L stuff. As you talked, you gave us the rep cadence you expect in terms of the new account cadence, would you expect that to stay the same? Or are you shifting more to a go deep strategy?

Jared Oasheim executive
#27

Bill, this is Jared. I can handle that one. So from an account perspective, last year, we were talking about adding high single digits on a quarterly basis throughout 2022. This year, we're expecting that to be in the range of about 10 to 12 new active implanting centers added on a quarterly basis as we march through 2023. And then there is going to be a bit of work done by the account managers to really start digging a little bit deeper and work in the referral pathway for those centers that are already active. So the centers that have been around for 12 or 24 months, trying to go a little bit deeper, reach out to more of the referral cardiologists along the way.

William Plovanic analyst
#28

Okay. And that kind of -- that ties into the DTC question. And I think you kind of alluded to the fact, and I want to make sure I heard that right. Is this more of an efficiency in terms of spend that you're trying to titrate and find out what is the most efficient in terms of getting a patient and converting them all -- or getting a lead and converting it through a patient? Is that where a lot of the focus on the DTC is today?

Nadim Yared executive
#29

Bill, the study by the way. Thank you for this question. It's an excellent question. Yes. direct-to-consumer awareness campaigns that medical device companies did 20 years ago are very different from what we are doing today. Think about it, what they did back then, putting TV ads was an open-loop system. What we are doing is a closed system. We favor channels where we have traceability of every single click in every single patient. And then every single [Technical Difficulty] who saw the ads and convert it. So we know all of those metrics at every single stage of the game. And the visible tip of the iceberg is the marketing campaign itself. 90% of the work is what happened behind the scene, those consumers who saw the ad all the way to becoming candidates -- or not becoming, to identifying if they are a candidate [Technical Difficulty] to basically offer them possibilities and contact sites that are doing the procedure. The cost for every single one of those campaigns is very closely tracked and monitored almost on a daily basis, and we [Technical Difficulty] to optimize. We are not in the business right now of throwing money and creating awareness. This is not what we're doing. We're paying money, where we believe that those money would lead to X number of patients, who are -- and that equation should be profitable for us from the [ end market ]. So that's what we're trying to explore. As an example, we added a new channel, 2 days ago. And we'll be testing it for a few weeks, [ try out ] different iteration and see if it's as profitable, more profitable or less profitable than other channels we're using. And that's the name of the game what we're trying to do here and trying to figure out different geography, different type of sites, different type of advertisement, different channels between sort of a [Technical Difficulty] there are so many social medias out there. And you do not advertise on Facebook the same way you do it on Instagram or TikTok or Twitter and so forth. So it's a big [Technical Difficulty] we're so excited about.

William Plovanic analyst
#30

And then quick, Jared, the $1.136 million gain in the other, that's a little -- it's kind of a big number. Just curious what that was. And then just you've kind of went through it with Margaret, but in like as simply as possible, what would you define as positive, what would you define as neutral? And what would you define as negative for the BeAT-HF outcomes? And I know that's hard to do, but I think for investors, if you could sum it up, like where are those kind of break points? And how should we think about it?

Jared Oasheim executive
#31

Bill, I'll just -- on the first piece of it. I mean, the biggest chunk that's fallen into that other expense net bucket is the interest income that we're seeing from the cash balance that we have at this point in time. So that's kind of the biggest number there. Nadim, I'll let you cover the second piece.

Nadim Yared executive
#32

Yes, regarding the second piece, in statistics, Bill, there is a p-value that you've identified to ensure that the [Technical Difficulty] tie point error less than a certain percentage, right? So what FDA wants to know is what is -- whether you achieve those results as a fluke, by chance or whether the observation is [Technical Difficulty] the reality. What I consider to be positive is if the primary endpoint met the statistical relevance that FDA is looking for. I would then say it will be in between [Technical Difficulty] Margaret. If either the mortality morbidity rate is trending close to that point, but not reaching it or for what other pre-specified prioritized endpoints that we have previously agreed with FDA to analyze with statistical relevance. Why do I say so? Usually, when you're designing a trial for approval, you select an endpoint, if you approve the endpoint. And if you meet the endpoint, you win, if you don't meet the endpoint, you lose, and that's the end of the game. What we have seen over the past 20 years in medical devices, it's a little bit more complicated than this. And FDA has to rely on the totality of evidence before they issue a judgment on [Technical Difficulty] get approved or not. In our case, our device is already approved, the benefit outweighs the risk according to FDA. So what we're looking here is what does the device do in other elements that FDA would allow us to tell physicians that yes, the device is [Technical Difficulty]. And that's why it's a little bit more complicated than the usual situation. And even if we don't meet the private end point per se, but we're trending [Technical Difficulty] meet another secondary or ancillary endpoint, we still believe that there is a net-net positive, not as positive as meeting the primary end point but positive above our base case right now.

Operator operator
#33

Our next question. That will come from the line of Alex Nowak with Craig-Hallum.

Alexander Nowak analyst
#34

And perhaps I missed this, but can you expand on what is happening in the background, collecting all the morbidity data to move the readout from the first half to first quarter? You must be seeing something or hearing something to give you that confidence, it's going to come this quarter rather than more in the first half of the year.

Nadim Yared executive
#35

Alex, this is Nadim, nice hearing from you [Technical Difficulty] it's actually not the data, but the rate of collection of the data and the rate of monitoring of the data. So we're justifying the trend of monitoring of sites to ensure that we will have all of the data monitored as required by FDA before we analyze the data. And based on the trajectory, we see we are able -- and we're able to narrow the time line for the unblinding [Technical Difficulty] how it's a very strong likelihood that this will happen in Q1, not in Q2.

Alexander Nowak analyst
#36

What do you think about the rate of new center adds in 2023? You more than doubled that number in 2022. I'm just going to throw it out to double the number again in 2023? Or what are you thinking about what the ramping sales can do this year?

Jared Oasheim executive
#37

Yes, Alex, maybe I'll just kind of baseline on that guidance again. So for the U.S. Heart Failure business, the midpoint of the range, the expectation is that we'll be seeing ads of around 10 to 12 active implanting centers on a quarterly basis going forward. Continuing to see those longer-term accounts continue to ramp up the productivity level similar to rates we saw in the past. And then as I just looked to the hypertension business in the U.S., it's still flat, right? It's a set patient population. And then just one more piece on the European side of it. We still haven't necessarily cracked the code over there at this point. And so our base case, the middle of the road of the guidance is that it would stay consistent at around that $1 million or so per quarter. We saw a bit of an uptick there in the fourth quarter, but some of that was distributors stocking up some shelves -- shelf units there for the first half of 2023. So we don't expect that to be repeated here in the first quarter. So overall, the vast majority of that growth coming from the U.S. Heart Failure business, but most of that revenue is coming from those centers that have already signed up, have already been activated in 2022 and then adding that $10 million to $12 million per quarter going forward.

Alexander Nowak analyst
#38

And maybe on my last point, what do you need to happen for Europe to really ramp? Is it just you need to put a little bit more focus on it, you're just focusing too much on the U.S. for obviously good reasons. Is it a reimbursement dynamic? Just how are you thinking about Europe?

Nadim Yared executive
#39

Alex, this is Nadim. It's all of the above. From a -- first, we're really not in Europe, we're in Germany and a couple of other countries. In regards to Germany, we have a ZE code from a reimbursement perspective. ZE code is kind of the middle layer. It's not as low as [ NU ] it's not as good as DRG. One of the constraints about the ZE code is that the hospital has to [Technical Difficulty] procedures at the beginning of the year with their payers. But even if they pre-negotiated it, they could do the procedure, they can still be in after by an entity called the MDS that is made of medical auditors who would come in hindsight. And that kind of scares off hospitals of engaging in procedures that are not yet at DRG or are not yet in the guidelines. And we are neither. And because of this, we have not had in Germany right now, waiting until we have more data and do more advocacy and education in regards to getting the [Technical Difficulty] in the guidelines in Europe. And it's a chicken and the egg. To get a DRG, we need a certain number of units per year [Technical Difficulty] about 1,500 procedures. We have a device that's a high price, low number of units, as I've mentioned [Technical Difficulty] and because of that, it's harder to get 1,500 units in Germany to get into that DRG examination mode. [Technical Difficulty] all of the above that we have not yet decided to invest heavily in Europe. Just in the comparison, we have more in our marketing team [Technical Difficulty] than we have for our entire team in Europe, right now. It takes from an education perspective, physician education, patient education and direct-to-consumer marketing, the physician-directed marketing team and so forth, it's a large effort that [Technical Difficulty] resources right now to duplicate that just for Germany, in Germany, and we don't have the volume to justify being able to do it. And again, it's a chicken and the egg [Technical Difficulty] have to decide to do it and break that loop. But right now, our focus is in the U.S. Have I answered your question, Alex?

Operator operator
#40

Thank you.

Nadim Yared executive
#41

Go ahead, Operator.

Operator operator
#42

I'm showing no further questions in the queue. At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to you, Mr. Yared for any closing remarks.

Nadim Yared executive
#43

Excellent. Thank you so much, Operator. And thanks, everyone, again for joining us for our fourth quarter earnings call. We appreciate [Technical Difficulty] and we look forward to updating you on our progress during our next update. Good night.

Operator operator
#44

Thank you all for participating. This concludes today's program. You may now disconnect.

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