Deutsche Post AG (DHL) Earnings Call Transcript

[Interpreted] Dear shareholders, ladies and gentlemen, I would like to open the Annual General Meeting of Deutsche Post AG, and welcome you on behalf of the Board of Management and my colleagues on the Supervisory Board. My name is Nikolaus von Bomhard. As Chairman of the Supervisory Board, I Chair the meeting, and I'm very pleased to meet so many shareholders and their representatives in person again this year. I would also like to extend a warm welcome to those who are unable to be here today and are following the Annual General Meeting on the Internet as well as to the many employees of our company, who, together with you and us are contributing to the success of today's meeting. As in previous years, notary, Dr. Hermann from Cologne to my left, will take the minutes of the Annual General Meeting, I would also like to welcome him. Following the speech by the Chairman of the Board of Management, my explanations, the explanations by Ms. Kreis on our share buyback program, we will begin the general debate, in which shareholders and shareholder representatives will have the opportunity throughout the debate to make comments on items on the agenda. If you would like to do so, please submit your request to speak in writing. Forms are available at the speaker's registration desk. In the interest of a speedy and coordinated procedure, I would like to ask you to submit your request to speak as early as possible and to use one of the two rostrums for your remarks after I have called up your name. The staff at the customer service desk in the lobby will also be happy to provide you with information about our services. The list of participants will soon be available on the screens to the right and left of the speakers' registration desk. It will be continuously updated until the end of the meeting. Information and instructions on the procedure for requests to speak, motions, voting procedure, granting proxies, and leaving the Annual General Meeting earlier can be found in the organizational information that you received when you were accredited. They apply to today's meeting. You will also receive the information throughout the Annual General Meeting at the information stand in the lobby and at the speakers' registration desk. Ladies and gentlemen, we are now entering the agenda. In addition to the appropriation of profits, the discharge or official approval of the management's actions and the elections to the Supervisory Board, the agenda today includes the election of the auditor and the auditor of the sustainability report as well as the approval of the remuneration report. Now Mr. Meyer, I would like you to take the floor for your report to the Annual General Meeting. Mr. Meyer.

[Interpreted] Thank you, Dr. von Bomhard. Dear shareholders, a warm welcome to Bonn. We're close to the company's headquarters here. This is my first Annual General Meeting as Chairman of the Board of Management, and that's why I particularly look forward to engaging in a dialogue with you. Investors have indeed told us they have found the transition from my predecessor, Frank Appel, to me, to be smooth and well orchestrated. And I hope that you've all gotten the same impression. I have taken over as head of a company that Frank Appel led very well until the 2023 AGM. And for this -- and for his more than 20 years of service as a member of our company's Board of Management, we remain very grateful. As you can see from the photos, I was on the road a lot in my first year as CEO, particularly in Asia, including China, Thailand, Japan and Singapore, in the Middle East, my travels took me to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and also Israel. And needless to say, I also made trips to the U.S., the U.K., France, and Poland and some others of our neighboring countries and of course I visited various of our branches in Germany. As CEO, it remains a very important to me to talk to employees in as many countries and in as many locations as possible. Occasionally, I have also lent a hand myself, for example, in parcel centers where we sorted parcels or in delivery. Because the way I see it, managers should understand how the processes and delivery of services work that our customers ultimately pay for it. Because, only then, can managers support their teams in doing a great job. And only good working conditions and efficient processes ultimately lead to excellent service. During my visits, I experienced our DHL Group as a truly impressive company. I received a lot of positive feedback, but also took away many suggestions on how we can improve further. In the future, I will continue to take time to talk in person to our teams on the ground and listen to the needs and impressions of our customers. In 2023, however, the news was often more sobering. It was another turbulent year. The global economy was weak, volumes in global trade were comparatively low. And this had to do with an accumulation of international crisis and geopolitical problems. People are currently suffering from wars, including in Eastern Europe and in the Middle East. There are continued tensions between the U.S. and China. We've also seen attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea and bottlenecks in the Panama Canal due to a lack of water. Climate change is having an increasing impact on our lives with concrete and tangible consequences. And we also continue to struggle with inflation in the past year. And naturally, all this leads to uncertainty and to subdued demand. In the logistics sector, this is reflected in declining transport volumes. To make matters worse, some business customers are still reducing stocks that they had significantly built up during the pandemic. And this is another reason why demand from business customers remains weak. As a result, some of our delivery networks are not fully utilized at present. In contrast, the e-commerce business is developing more positively across divisions. After the boom during the pandemic and the subsequent moderate decline thereafter, it returned to its path of structural growth last year. And e-commerce has been confirmed as a strong trend. And as DHL Group, we continue to benefit from this. Despite all the challenges, our annual figures are encouraging. We achieved our targets, both the outlook for the year and the medium-term outlook. Let me remind you that in our medium-term outlook published in March 2021, we had forecast EBIT of over EUR 6 billion for 2023. At the beginning of '23, we have then targeted an EBIT of between EUR 6 billion and EUR 7 billion for the annual financial statements. And in the end, we achieved a figure of EUR 6.3 billion. So even in the weakest market environment of the past 15 years, we are highly profitable. And we are, therefore, satisfied with the 2023 fiscal year. A particularly positive aspect was that our free cash flow, excluding acquisitions, amounted to EUR 3.3 billion, which exceeded our forecast. And this is a clear sign that the foundation of our company is strong. We are generating more free cash flow in the long term. And even without the tailwind from the global economy, our earnings are significantly higher than in 2019, so before the pandemic, which was a record year at the time. And compared to our competitors, we performed well in practically all markets. Overall, the figures show that we have reached new heights. So it was a successful fiscal year despite adverse circumstances. We achieved this by responding appropriately to challenges. For example, we have passed on increased costs to customers wherever possible and adjusted price is in line with the market. We were also well prepared. We planned our capacities with foresight, kept an eye on costs and continuously increased efficiency. Let's take a look at our five divisions. In the Express division, volumes in '23 were down against the previous year. Nonetheless, DHL Express remains highly profitable because this division has a relatively flexible network and has managed its capacities, costs, and price as well. Global Forwarding, Freight also saw volumes fall below the previous year's level. However, they stabilized over the course of the year. The division's lower overall earnings are primarily due to the fact that prices in the freight market have returned to their normal level after rising sharply during the pandemic. The development at supply chain was very pleasing indeed, as business increased in all regions and sectors. New business was strong. At the same time, many contracts were extended. Thanks to ever better data analysis and further automation, the division has also become more productive. The e-commerce division registered a further increase in parcel volumes in 2023. In almost all markets, the volume was significantly higher than in 2019. The division continues to benefit from the stable growth trend in online retail. And it is continuously expanding its network. The DHL e-commerce division has now matured into a young adult in our family. And even though we expect a few more years of, well, college, those who are parents here will know what I'm talking about, need some support from the family. So even though we expect a few years of that college time, we are approaching the point at which the division can become a full earner with corresponding expectations regarding its contribution to the group's EBIT and cash flow. At Post & Parcel Germany, we see the structural change in the mail business continuing. The number of traditional letters being sent is declining. On the other hand, the division is delivering more parcels and good shipments. It recorded a profitable fourth quarter, partly because it levied a seasonal surcharge for business customers for the first time in the second half of the year. That said, there were numerous burdens to bear, increased energy, material and staff costs, the latter due partly to the new collective wage agreements last year. We also experienced a dampened consumer mood that was attributable in part to inflation. Overall, the earnings of P&P Germany are not satisfactory. But the result, of course, in part from the completely outdated regulation, which was introduced in the late 1990s at a time when the mail market was still growing and above all, it promotes competition. Today, the world is different. Germany is the only industrialized country that is still pursuing this course and has not yet adjusted its regulation. A new postal law is expected to be passed soon. We hope that it will finally take current conditions into account and that it will give us necessary flexibility in terms of letter delivery times. In addition, the new law should include the topic of sustainability in an ecological and social sense. And in this aspect, we are undoubtedly the leader in the German mail and parcel markets. Despite the headwinds in global trade, we stand by our promise which is even in the event of a short-term decline in earnings, we will keep the dividend stable. Our proposal for 2023 is EUR 1.85 per share. This means that we would distribute 59% of the net profit to you. Our financial strategy envisages a range of 40% to 60%. We would, therefore, be at the upper end of that range. If you give your approval, we will pay the dividend to you at the beginning on the 8th of May 2024. We've also expanded our share buyback program once again. We are extending it until the end of 2025, and we'll increase it from EUR 3 billion to EUR 4 billion. And we on the Board of Management see this as a clear signal that we have confidence in the good prospects of the company. This chart shows the performance of our stock over the past 5 years. We're comparing it here with the DAX and the MSCI World Transportation Index, in other words, the global industry index. The pandemic initially caused share prices to plummet worldwide in March of 2020. This was followed by a broad recovery. The price of our shares reached an all-time high in 2021 due to the one-off effects of the COVID pandemic. The war in Ukraine then depress the markets once more until things started to pick up again in mid-2022. Our shareholder return, which also includes dividends has amounted to 96% over the past 5 years. This puts us above the two comparative figures. The DAX is at 72%, and the MSCI World Transportation Index is at 44%. If we only look at the past 12 months, the performance of our stock has been subdued. One factor here is that the German government, DHL Group's largest shareholder, saw the portion of its stake in our company to finance other investments. In February of this year, the state bank KfW sold 50 million stocks. The federal government share of the company has therefore fallen from 20.5% to 16.5%. The actions of the federal government had a considerable negative impact on the share price. Let's now move on to our forecast for this year. We expect EBIT of between EUR 6.0 billion and EUR 6.6 billion for 2024 as a whole. This would also put us well above the level of 2019. And we expect free cash flow excluding acquisitions of around EUR 3 billion in 2024. That is to say around the same level as last year. We believe we can achieve this. Even though the overall economic development is still not making it easy for us. We should expect that the world will remain volatile in '24. Historically speaking, by the way, I wouldn't categorize this as exceptional circumstances. Instead, it was the past decade since German reunification in 1990 that have been extraordinary. In this respect, a tense global situation, unfortunately, is more of a return to normality. We must prepare ourselves for further turbulent time. Global trade and this is even more relevant for us and our industry and also the demand for international transport services. We continue to see a very pronounced and unusually long bottoming out here. Transport volumes between companies are experiencing an even longer phase of decline than during the major financial crisis of 2008, 2009. Transport volumes between companies are comparatively low, especially in Europe. And in China, further developments are difficult to predict. The country is still struggling with the real estate crisis, which is slowing down consumption and thus imports. Overall, global trade is currently recovering only sluggishly as a result of all that. We will publish our figures for the first quarter of this year on May 7 as planned. In our outlook in March, we announced that we do not yet anticipate a broad-based upturn in the first half of 2024. However, we do expect a recovery in the second half of the year. As soon as global trade picks up again, we will translate the rising demand into growth. We're prepared for this. Until then, we will remain flexible and keep an eye on our costs. Looking ahead, we will continue to benefit from the powerful e-commerce trend, which is currently gaining momentum again. And this is another reason why we expect EBIT of between EUR 7.5 billion and EUR 8.5 billion in our medium-term forecast for 2026. We therefore confirm our assessment. The earnings figures from the pandemic years can be achieved again when normal growth returns to the market. Now let us take stock in a more comprehensive way. We presented our strategy 2025 at the end of 2019. Among other things, it emphasized our aspiration to be the employer, provider, and investment of choice. So where do we stand today in these three areas? The first of the three goals is that we want to be the Employer of Choice. In this area, we've continued to improve significantly since 2019. Today, we are not only one of the largest, but also one of the most popular employers worldwide. And this is a big plus for us, especially in times marked by a shortage of skilled workers. It enables us to attract and retain the best talent. The diagram on the far left shows employee engagement. This is an important factor because motivated and engaged employees make a decisive contribution to our success. We measure this figure across the group every year. As you can see, it has been consistently high in recent years and at 83%. It was once again above our target of over 80% most recently. I would like to take this opportunity to sincerely thank our approximately 590,000 employees worldwide. Thank you. Particularly the employees in delivery, sorting, warehousing and transportation, in other words, those who day after day and night after night, deliver the operational performance of our company, which is what our customers ultimately pay for. So once again, thank you very much for your efforts, for your commitment, dear colleagues. In the future, we also want to give employees below management level, more opportunities to have their share directly in the company's success. To this end, we are piloting a program in 12 countries that allows employees to acquire our shares at a discounted price. Our exceptional commitment to our employees is also repeatedly acknowledged by external parties. The Great Place to Work Institute, together with Fortune Magazine publishes a prestigious ranking every year. In 2023, DHL Express achieved second place worldwide in this ranking. In the regional lists, in Asia, Latin America and Europe, it even took the top spot. In January '24, the Top Employers Institute also recognized 128 DHL Group country organizations as top employers. And these are all very gratifying achievements. Our aspiration to be an Employer of Choice also means that we pay close attention to the annual accident rate. Because accidents can happen quickly in logistics, that such especially traffic accidents. The second chart shows a positive trend here as well. The rate has continued to fall since 2019 through targeted measures and a group-wide program. However, we wanted to achieve a little more in regard to the share of women in middle and upper management. By 2025, it should be at least 30% across the group. And the third diagram shows that we've also made steady gains in this area over the year. Last year, however, the share of 27.2% was half a percentage point and slightly below our interim target for '23. Yet we are confident that our internal programs to promote women in management positions will continue to have an impact. Alongside Employer of Choice, we also want to be a Provider of Choice. To evaluate how successful we are at this, we primarily measure customer satisfaction, results between minus 100 and plus 100 are possible with this method. And even at first glance, the graphs show that we are doing very well here. These are high figures, especially when compared to the rest of the industry. Please note that the figures are not comparable between the individual divisions, though, the different divisions serve different markets and customer groups and there's different feedback behavior. The key factor is the development of the division over time. We evaluate the results accurately and react to them. At the current level, the figures prove that we are keeping our customer promise and are delivering excellent services. Incidentally, our relatively new DHL e-commerce division has also been collecting these figures across its business areas since last year. In future, we will therefore be able to show division-wide figures here, too. Finally, let me turn to our third aspiration. We also want to be Investment of Choice. In terms of our earnings power, we've reached a new level, a new dimension in recent years. Our EBIT and free cash flow have risen continually for 4 years, due partly to exceptional effects during the pandemic. Last year, we achieved our targets despite the lack of economic recovery and all the external crisis. If we want to be the Investment of Choice, however, we also need to place more emphasis than ever on cybersecurity. And the third diagram shows that we've made significant progress here as well. We've been publicly reporting on the security of our data and IT systems since 2022. It is evaluated by an independent external agency. According to their method, a maximum of 820 points can be achieved. At the end of '23, we were at 750 points, a very good figure. That is not only well above that of the previous year, but also above our target of 690 points. By way of comparison, at 690 points and above, a company is among the top quartile of the peer group in terms of cybersecurity. And this includes all DAX companies, but also logistics companies and other countries and many of our industry customers. Our Strategy 2025 has contributed to DHL Group's success in challenging years. We are Employer, Provider and Investment of Choice in many areas, and we are determined to further strengthen our position. To this end, we are pursuing four major trends in logistics and want to reap the benefits: Globalization, Digitalization, E-commerce and Sustainability. Let's first take a look at globalization. Is it coming to an end as many claim? In reality, that does not seem to be the case, even if the daily news often indicate that. Globalization and the worldwide exchange of goods are powerful wealth-creating forces. This is also impressively demonstrated by our renowned DHL Global Connectedness Report, which we regularly publish together with New York University. According to the current report, globalization has recently even reached a record high despite the pandemic and geopolitical conflicts. What can be said, however, is that globalization is changing. We're also observing this in our customers. They now view dependencies on individual locations more critically and want to disperse their risks better. That's why they are spreading their warehouses and production more widely around the world. The technical term for this is omni-shoring. As a result, supply chains are becoming more complex. This favors competent and flexible logistics partners like us. We have decades of experience in different parts of the world with many different logistics services. No one else in the industry is positioned at such a broad, diversified and global way. DHL is global and local at the same time. We are globally local. And this means that we can optimally support our customers in realigning their supply chains. With this in mind, we are continuing to invest in our global network, particularly in fast-growing markets, such as in the Asia Pacific region, the Middle East and Latin America. So we are determined to reap the benefits of omni-shoring. The second major trend in logistics is digitalization. It makes logistics simpler, faster, and more efficient. And it improves service for our customers as well as working conditions for employees. At DHL Group, we've been building up digital expertise for many years, particularly in the fields of automation and robotics, data analytics, and in the area we call the Internet of Things. In other words, communication between network devices. We also use artificial intelligence to improve our operations. Whenever we find good new solutions, we'll scale them up in the various areas of the company. Let me give you some current examples. DHL Supply Chain deploys 6,000 robots as well as 46,000 smart devices that can be worn directly on the body and make work easier. Such innovations are becoming increasingly relevant and are creating more and more value. Artificial intelligence helps our workforce in many ways, including our delivery staff at Post & Parcel Germany. It gives them tips on the most expedient route and sequence when delivering shipments, and it tells our customers when their deliveries will arrive. We are convinced that digitalization will remain a key lever for us to achieve further growth. The third major trend is that, we are benefiting from is e-commerce. As I mentioned earlier, online retail remains a strong growth driver. The online share of total retail is growing and there is still a lot of potential. In addition, e-commerce is increasingly crossing national borders. The additional potential is, therefore, huge. Our company was an early adopter of this trend. In fact, countless retailers around the world now ship their goods with us. Last year, e-commerce contributed more than 1/4 of our revenue. And our investments are also strengthening also in this area. Let me give you two current examples. Last year, we acquired the Turkish parcel service provider, MNG Kargo. This will enable us to serve the attractive Turkish market even better. And at the same time, we will be able to offer new options for shipping across national borders. In March of this year, we opened a new logistics center, parcel center in Poland. One of the largest and most modern in Europe, in fact. It enables even faster transportation for our customers. Poland is a strategically important location. Many international traders use the country as a hub for their shipments to and from Europe, including Germany. We therefore remain the Provider of Choice in e-commerce as well. And we expect at least another decade of structural growth in this area. The biggest problem of our generation remains climate change, global warming due to the emission of greenhouse gases and their accumulation in the atmosphere has serious consequences. The number of natural disasters has demonstrably increased as a result of global warming. We all have a duty to do something about that. The logistics sector, in particular. After all, transportation still causes a lot of emissions. As the global market leader in logistics, we vigorously drive sustainable solutions. We also made progress in this area last year. We now use over 35,000 electric vehicles in pickup and delivery, which is significantly more than any of our competitors. We've thus increased the share of e-vehicles in our fleet to 38%. We want to reach at least 60% by 2030. We also remain the industry's largest buyer of sustainable aviation fuels. Last year, for example, we concluded a contract with producer World Energy. With a sustainable fuel, we will receive by 2030 through this agreement, we will be able to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by around 1.7 million metric tons. We also successfully placed our first sustainability-related bond on the capital market in '23. The bond's interest rate paid to investors depends on whether we achieve our climate targets. Since the end of 2021, our customers have also been able to make a conscious decision to use sustainable fuels with our GoGreen Plus product. Because sustainable transportation is more expensive for us, we raise a surcharge for it. We are still at the beginning here. But in recent months, we've seen more and more customers who are willing to pay for GoGreen Plus. For example, pharmaceutical manufacturer, Novo Nordisk, but also Prada and Mytheresa, both providers of luxury fashion. Most of our greenhouse gas emissions are generated by air transport. And that's why we want to focus more and more on sustainable fuels in the coming years. We already buy a large proportion of the available volumes from various sources. We've set ourselves an ambitious target for 2030. Sustainable fuels should account for at least 30% of our air and ocean freight and road transportation. And there's one major challenge here, which is there's still not enough sustainable fuel on the market. the ramp-up of production is only progressing very slowly. Nonetheless, our goal remains the same. We want to reduce all of our greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. And over the next few years, we will continue to invest consistently in sustainable fuels, carbon-neutral buildings and even more electric vehicles, among other things. We want to achieve our goals, which are validated by the science-based targets initiative. We take our contribution to climate protection seriously. It is important in order to remain competitive in the long term as well. Ladies and gentlemen, I have told you today about the many challenges that the global situation is currently presenting. Nonetheless, I see 2024 as a year of opportunities, not because the overall global conditions are getting any easier. But because the strength of our company makes me so confident. First of all, the fundamental growth drivers of our business remain intact, especially the continued growth of e-commerce. We also have extensive experience in dealing with different economic cycles and external crisis. Our broad portfolio and global footprint makes us robust against fluctuations in the global economy, and we can adapt ourselves. We are flexible. Thanks to our financial power, we can invest in our network even in difficult times. Many of our competitors, by contrast are distracted by restructuring and major acquisitions. They have cut back on investments and in some cases, capacities too. Online retailers are also investing less in their own logistics and are once again using providers such as DHL more. And all of this gives us opportunities to regain market share. Last but not least, I'm inspired by the extraordinary motivation of our employees around the world. And this takes me back to my initial remarks. No matter where in the world, I visit our colleagues, it is extraordinary how much commitment and passion they put into their work. Our team is hard to beat the way I see it. And that's why we will continue to develop our strategy step by step. Numerous elements of Strategy 2025 have proven their worth over many years. For Strategy 2030, you can therefore expect an evolution rather than a revolution. But we will have to address some key issues in a new way. Yes, in particular, how we can accelerate the group's profitable growth. We are working on this, and we expect to communicate on it later this year. Dear shareholders, I am proud to lead this company. A team of 590,000 hard-working people who keep the world running day in, day out. A team that enables trade in over 220 countries and territories, a team that makes important contributions to society in many ways. DHL Group has developed from a national postal service provider into the global market leader in logistics. Let's continue writing the success story together and make a very good company into an even better one. Thank you very much for your confidence and trust.

[Interpreted] Thank you very much, Mr. Meyer, for your comments. We are all delighted that our company has performed well in what, as you said, remains a challenging environment. And together with the management board, we are confident that we will continue to develop successfully over the course of the year. Well, this concludes the public part of the live broadcast. And I would like to take this opportunity to say goodbye to all those who are unable to follow the rest of the meeting. Thank you very much for your interest in our company. [Portions of this transcript that are marked [Interpreted] were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]