Elopak ASA (ELO) Earnings Call Transcript

Good morning, and welcome, everybody, to this third quarter results presentation for Elopak. My name is Christian Gjerde. I'm the Head of Treasury and Investor Relations. Today's presentation will be held by our CEO, Bent Axelsen and our CFO, Ola Buaroy, and will last for around 30 minutes, followed by a Q&A session, where the people here in the audience and people participating online can ask questions. So with that short introduction, welcome Bent.

Thank you, Christian. So good morning. We are very happy to light up October with our Q3 results. So we will basically jump straight into it with the business highlights. We are reporting EUR 308 million revenues, which is a growth of 6.5%. EMEA grew its revenues from carton and closure by close to 11%. America delivered revenue growth close to 6% despite the supply chain constraints on board. This has resulted in an EBITDA of around EUR 52 million with a margin of 16.8%. This is actually the best EBITDA so far in Elopak. And I think that is very encouraging given the challenges in the market, the headwinds and the disruptions that we've been dealing with this quarter. And despite our active investment program, we have a strong balance sheet and the leverage ratio is stable at 2.2 [indiscernible]. And lastly, we have an -- when I give some organizational updates. Hakon Volldal will assume the CEO role from November. So we are very excited to get him on the team, and we are looking forward to the continued journey with the implementation of repackaging tomorrow. Reinard Dreesmann has been appointed interim EVP Americas, as Lionel Ettedgui has decided to pursue new opportunities after 7 years in the company. I really want to thank Lionel for his excellent contribution in America, contributing to the profitable growth of Elopak. And Reinard, with his 35 years experience will ensure continued focus and momentum across the commercial and operational priorities in the company. When it comes to the permanent solution for EVP Americas, this process is underway. So more into the figures. If you take a look at the group, we continue to grow revenues and EBITDA despite the demanding environment. And starting with America, I'm very impressed by how our teams have responded, working hard to secure board supply and under the commitments to our customers. Further, it has been a priority to rebalance our cost base as a response to the headwinds in the beginning of the year and also to address pricing given the raw material increases resulting from the Middle East contract, and we are happy to see the effect of all these actions in the quarter when you really see that in the figures. At the same time, we have stayed consistent with the execution of the strategy and ensure that short-term priorities are not coming in the way of the longer-term development. If you take a look at the revenues, we are particularly pleased with the development in the Eastern and Northern part of Europe, where we see momentum in Pure-Pak, both in UHT, so the ultra-heated aseptic milk and fresh dairy segment. And what you're seeing here in this quarter is that recent filling machines commissioning are supporting this growth as the utilization rates are increasing. We also continue to grow Roll-Fed with new customer business, particularly in Poland. In America, we continue to grow revenues despite the Board constraints, and this comes from selling filling machines, but maybe particularly interesting is that with that increased installed base we have in America, we are generating more revenues in the aftermarket. This is a recurring revenue stream. When it comes to profitability, it remains strong despite raw material cost increases. The surcharges in Europe have really helped the situation and mitigated the impact in this quarter. In Americas, the disruptions held back reported and I would say, profitability temporarily and Ola will give some more color on this in his part, but the underlying profitability remains strong. So if we exclude the impact of the force majeure, the EBITDA margin would have been around 17.5%, which is a really strong percentage. So I think we can say that in this quarter, we clearly have demonstrated the resilience of our business and the effectiveness of our proactive responses. Every quarter, we take this slide and remind about the 3 strategic priorities. And as I said, even though we have a lot of short-term challenges on our plate, we are still staying focused with our strategy execution. And this time, we would like to take a look at strengthened leadership in core. So if you remember, also in Q2 and in Q3, we saw a good development in our core business. So Pure-Pak volumes have grown year-over-year across several major European dairy producers. And is this particularly significant because it's a mature market. And as you know, filling machine is a leading indicator of future growth. And when you're a customer and you sign a filling machine with Elopak, you have around a decade perspective. So you choose our machine, you choose a solution and both the customer and Elopak has a common interest to increase the utilization rate of that machine. So one, it will increase our share of wallet with the customer, but also our solution is also helping customers to grow their market share because it's a good solution. So why are they then choosing us? One, and particularly in the ambient segment, Pure-Pak is an iconic and a premium format with really a distinct experience compared to the normal formats in Ambient, which are the [indiscernible] shapes. So it stands out. It's preferred by the consumer from many consumer studies which makes it possible to upgrade the brand and build the brand for our customers. Secondly, our machines are modern and they are reliable. And if we top that up with a very close customer relationship that we have our customers and our ability to work with them in a flexible and agile way. I think that is the recipe of success. So if you take Germany as an example, here, we are growing in a stable market. It's the largest dairy market in Europe, accounting for 20% of the milk care production. Here, we are growing with leading producers, where actually the filling line ramp-up gives this increased share of wallet and market share increases for our customers. And the fact that when you are a leading dairy, when they are choosing our solution, it's more important than that single contract because it really validates the proposition. It increases the visibility of the Pure-Pak format in the shelf for UHT and it also provides a strong reference for future growth. So I really think that this is a good example of what strengthening leadership in core looks like in practice. Now we will look more into the figures, and I would like to invite Ola on stage to present the financials.

Thank you very much, Bent, and good morning to everyone. So as usual, we will start with EMEA. So what happened in EMEA in the quarter? Well, we are pleased to see that the momentum we reported in the second quarter has continued also into the third quarter. As we reported in the second quarter, we see growth in the UHT dairy segment. But this quarter, we are also seeing that we are growing within the fresh categories. It's mainly coming from the Central and Eastern European countries and Germany in particular. So that's a combination for what we have seen earlier in 2026. As Ben pointed out, it is a result of a systematic work with some of our key customers where we have expanded the installed base of filling machines recently, which are now ramping up fully. We do also have a few examples where some of our key customers, they have won market share within their own segments, leading to higher sales volume to those dairies. While we are seeing good momentum in the Central and European countries, we are at the same time also experiencing somewhat intensified competition in a more South European countries. And the same goes for the MENA region. When it comes to Roll-Fed, it is encouraging to see that the return of the growth or that we reported in Europe earlier in 2026, that is continuing also into the third quarter, while Poland continues to be the main driver. And that means, all in all, that carton and closure revenue grew by almost 11% in Q3. That's not entirely driven by volume increase, but it's also driven by the customer surcharges we implemented mid-second quarter that we are now seeing the full benefit of. And also, to some extent, the buildup of customer-specific finished goods also referred to as IFRS 15 effect. On the equipment side, the commission activity is steady year-on-year. However, what we see is a shift towards more lease arrangements rather than direct sales. and especially within our small and midsized customer segment, meaning it is impact equipment revenue recognition in the third quarter meaning we are reporting a somewhat lower equipment revenue in the third quarter compared to Q3 last year, but that's mainly due to the shift from direct sales to more lease arrangements. All machine commissioning in the third quarter were new installations rather than replacement, meaning and also, as pointed out by Bent, we are adding Elopak filling capacity to the market which is an indicator of continued growth. Quickly back to the customer surcharges, which we implemented mid-Q2. In the second quarter, we reported that it partially offset the elevated raw material prices. While in Q3, we see the full benefit of the surcharges, meaning that we are now offsetting the increased raw material prices following the Middle East conflict in Q3. However, the margin in percentage is naturally impacted, which brings the EMEA EBITDA to 20.4%. If you are to exclude the Middle East impact, percentage or the margin in percentage would have also been stable year-on-year. If you look at EBITDA year-to-date in EMEA, we are reporting a decline, but that is because of events that happened during the first half of 2026, including a one-off in Q2 and also the second half impact of the Middle East conflict. But we are happy to see that we, in this quarter in EMEA is reporting an increased EBITDA. So turning to Americas where I will give some color on the supply disruption, how that has impacted our financials in the region in the quarter. The disruption has impacted both top line and profitability. Our team has worked hard to secure board supply, and we have implemented several temporary measures. However, the disruption has limited volume growth as there's still a supply constraint, which has led to flat carton and closure revenue in the region in the quarter. And I will get back to this later also. When it comes to the commissioning activity in the quarter, we have had a high activity in the third quarter. We have commissioned several school milk machines, and it's supporting the customer onboarding of ahead of the start-up of the third production line in the U.S., which is intended to school milk and is planning to be up and running in the second half of 2027. The expanded installed base of filling machines in the region is also leading to recurring revenue growth from the aftermarket. Quickly on the market conditions. In Americas, we have reported for a while a decline within plant-based. We have seen signs in the market now that it looks to stabilize. However, there are no clear signs of recovery within that segment while the more traditional dairy segments, we still see a high demand. I said that the profitability is impacted by the supply situation in Americas. So to maintain supply and deliver on our customer commitments. We have implemented temporary measures. However, that has led to somewhat increased ore costs in the quarter. It has led to somewhat increased logistical costs in the quarter and also to some extent, production inefficiencies. As we communicated in August, we expect most of these incremental costs to be covered through insurance. And in the third quarter, we have started to recognize some insurance compensation, and we expect more compensation to be recognized in the periods to come. However, we have had a negative impact in the quarter. We consider that to be a temporary impact. In terms of euros, the impact in the core is EUR 2.6 million on the America profitability. But as I said, and that's the key message here is that we expect most of the incremental cost to be covered through insurance. Hence, we consider this to be a temporary impact. How is this going to play out in Q4? Well, it is too early to conclude, but we expect it to be significant then in Q3. If you are excluding the impact of the supply disruption, the EBITDA margin would have been around 23%, which is more in line with normal EBITDA levels in Americas. A few words on the tariff situation before I move on. In August, a 50% tariff on certain goods was implemented. However, the good news is that boards exported from the U.S. to Canada and blanks exported from Canada to the U.S. are still exempted, meaning the Elopak exposure relates to our closure business. We have implemented mitigating actions. We consider the total financial exposure to be limited. However, it could be that we will see some near-term impact in Q4 and maybe also in the beginning of '27, but not very significant. No CFO presentation without a bridge. So if you are moving to the EBITDA development in the quarter, we have introduced a separate bar illustrating the impact of the supply disruption in Americas. And as I said, it amounted to EUR 2.6 million in the quarter. And again, this is net after insurance coverage, and we expect this to be a temporary impact. Net revenue mix and raw materials must be seen in combination. They are both impacted by the Middle East conflict, including the raw material prices and the customer surcharges. In addition to the volume increase we are seeing in EMEA. In 2026, we have continued to work on our cost base. And in this quarter, we see a positive impact of EUR 3.6 million. And it is encouraging to see that the measures are delivering on the intended benefits. And this brings the EBITDA to EUR 51.9 million. As Bent mentioned, the highest reported EBITDA to date and a margin of 16.8%. And if you are to exclude additional costs resulting from the supply disruption, the margin would have been around 17.5%. And it's also worth noticing that we haven't recorded any adjustments to the EBITDA this quarter. Before I move on, it's also worth noticing that Q3 typically is one of our higher-margin quarters throughout the year due to a few reasons, and I can mention a few. That's because we typically have a high demand for higher-margin products during the summer month. And in Q3, we typically also have fewer public holidays compared to the other quarters, which are allowing us to run more efficient product [indiscernible]. Looking at the cash flow movements. The reported net debt was stable during the quarter. However, around EUR 10 million, the FX impact, Relistor translation effect on our green bonds. As the NOK has strengthened compared to the euro this quarter, we have hedged this through cross-currency swaps. But as the shops are not meeting the definition of the net debt, it's not reflected on the bridge. But the key point is that the underlying development is better than it's what's presented on the slide. So maybe slightly more complicated than it needs to be. Cash generated from operations amounted to EUR 36 million in the quarter out of the [indiscernible] million on CapEx. Before I move on to the CapEx, I will continue to comment on the cash from cash flow from operations. So it's supported by the profitability. We see an increase on the working capital position as we have claims to the insurance company impacting the net working capital in the quarter. And we have normal Q3 levels of taxes paid. Now on to the cash flow to investments. Out of the EUR 15 million, we see on CapEx around EUR 10 million related to EMEA. We are investing in a new coating line. That's also described in the IPO documents and also repeated at Capital Markets Day. So that's part of the EUR 10 million in EMEA. We are also replacing a converter in Europe, both allowing us to increase our production efficiency long term while the remainder of 5% is related to the third production line in the U.S. When it comes to cash flow to financing activities, both lease payments and interests are in line with normal levels. Looking at our financial position, it remains solid, still at a leverage ratio of 2.2, also after the investments made during the quarter. Return on capital employed increased to 15.4% in the quarter, reflecting a higher return on our capital base. On the U.S. plant, we have invested so far USD 113 million. And we expect to invest additional $15 million before we have completed the build out to 3 production lines in the U.S. As also disclosed in our notes, we have a bond maturing in May '27. However, we do not anticipate any refinancing needs as it is expected to be covered through our long-term debt facilities. And finally, on a happy note, a message to all of you who are Elopak shareholders, keep an eye on your bank account tomorrow because the first half dividend is on its way. So with this, I'll give the word back to Bent.

Thank you, Ola. I will check the account tomorrow. Now to the summary and the outlook. So despite the demanding operating environment, we continued to make progress in the third quarter. Managing raw material costs in EMEA and operations [indiscernible] in the Americas will continue to be a priority. And the full year revenue is expected to be in line with the current run rate with an EBITDA margin around 50%. And here is a very important to state that this is excluding any timing effects related to the insurance claim that Ola talked about. So there could be payments that will be acknowledged in '27. Now what is run rate? So to simplify this, I think we can expect that the Q4 revenues will be similar to the Q3 revenues. So I think that wraps up the presentation, and we will now move to Q&A, Christian.

Thank you, Bent. Thank you, Ola. Great presentation. So we have received a few questions online. But before I go to that, obviously, I want to take the questions from the people here in the audience. So if you raise your hand, I will come to you with the microphone. Please state your name and the company that you represent.

Jeppe, Arctic Securities. What's the latest update on the Nippon paper mill. An if it restarts, what's the current production level?

Do you want me to take this?

Go ahead, [indiscernible].

Yes. So I think it's -- we have positive news on the development. So that doesn't mean that the facility is up and running, but Nippon is able to produce board based on imported pulp. And that is a big and a very important development. And it's still kind of in a ramp-up phase, but that is done successfully, it will really help the supply situation significantly. Now when it comes to getting the pulp -- starting with pulp production, we will not see that this year. We need to wait that will be some time into 2027, but we don't know the timing of the reestablishment of the pulp production. But imported pulp is an opportunity that is being pursued.

And then I guess moving on to the full year guidance. It implies a Q4 EBITDA of around EUR 45 million. Given that the revenue level will be similar to Q3, why wouldn't you guide on a higher EBITDA or EBITDA margin on the full year?

Yes. So I think that typically at Q3, if you look at kind of the history, Q3 is normally relatively strong quarter. And if you look at kind of historical Q4, you will see that Q4 is typically not as strong as Q3. And obviously, the follow-up question to that is what about America, where we have invested in the second line. I think that is related to the constraints. So as we reported in the Q2. The supply disruptions will take some time to solve. And we will continue to see challenges in Q4. And we want to be cautious not to over promise a full recovery in Q4. So the predictability in America is lower than normal because is really out of our hands when our supplier will get their facility to produce more board. So that is the answer to that question. Do you have any...

No, I think it's mainly due to seasonality and it's also due to the uncertainty that we are experiencing. Once -- both when it comes to Americas, but also due to the Middle East conflict and how that will play out.

Marcus with Pareto. Sorry to bother you with further questions on the Americas, but acknowledging the uncertainty, but you stayed on the contract negotiations for 2027 on Americas, which I guess is coming around the corner now. Could you just try to provide some color on where you are, how dynamics with the customers for Line 2 is given the uncertainty, you touched upon it in the report that this will pressure the call it the regional dynamics. Again, understanding you can't give guidance, but just how this is working.

So I think that the main priority of the American team now is to get enough board. So that is really the first priority. I think it's too soon to tell how this incident will affect the dynamics next year. But as we mentioned this in the Q2, we think that these incidents will have -- it has the immediate impact on supply. When it comes as to how that impacts the dynamics in the market, at this stage, it's a little bit difficult to say. But when you have an inside this it was it shakes the market a little bit, and that is a situation that we need to manage with our customers. So I think that we need to prove that we can solve the supply disruption and to stabilize the situation over the next couple of quarters. And that, I think, is the ticket to the onboarding of new customers. So I think the message is the same as we said in the second quarter that in America, there will be a halt the whole, but it will be the growth will be muted also in '27 because of the combination of supply issues, but also how this will impact the dynamics going forward, it's difficult to tell at this stage.

Thank you. Thank you to the questions from the audience. We will then move on to the questions received online. So starting with a question from Martin Melbye of [indiscernible]. So Martin asked us if you could give some outlook on the expected raw material costs into '27, looking at both paperboards, LDP elevated prices. Reflections on that, Please?

Yes. And the question could be related to both EMEA and Americas. So if we start with EMEA, of course, we have seen elevated [indiscernible] prices in 2026. It has come down somewhat, but it's still at an elevated level compared to the pre-conflict times. How it's going to play out in '27, it's still difficult to predict, and we normally not give guidance on the coming year now as part of the Q3 presentation. However, we have been successfully able to pass on increased raw material prices to our customers in '26. And we hope that we will demonstrate also to do so in '27. But it's -- we have started our conversations with our customers. right now, so it's very difficult to say how it's going to play out. When it comes to Americas, and whether the board situation in Americas can lead to more long-term raw material prices. It's also a bit difficult to say as of now. However, we have demonstrated in the past that we have been able to defend our margins.