Home / Transcripts / FDJ United (FDJU) · July 27, 2023

FDJ United (FDJU) Earnings Call Transcript

July 27, 2023

Euronext Paris FR Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants and Leisure earnings 85 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator operator
#1

Hello, and welcome to the FDJ Half Year 2023 Results Call. My name is Jess, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I will now hand you over to your host, Mr. Stephane Pallez, CEO; and Mr. Pascal Chaffard, Executive Vice President in charge of Finance, Performance and Strategy to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Stephane Pallez executive
#2

Hello. Hello, everybody. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Stephane Pallez, Chairwoman and CEO of FDJ Group. And I'm with Pascal Chaffard as said, Executive Vice President in charge of Finance, Performance and Strategy to present our H1 results. So this presentation of course, is available online in the Investor section of our corporate website. I will start with the presentation, and Pascal will follow to present more precisely our financial performance. So to start with, I want to qualify those results are solid results and also talk about, of course, a major event for us, which is the acquisition of Premier Lotteries Ireland. So on our results, they are solid. The group generated revenues are at 1.3%, up 60% versus H1 2022, up 4% on a like-for-like basis, which means including L'Addition and Aleda in the 2022 basis. So our overall level of activity has been good. It could have been better for draw games, which I'll come back later on, but still, still good growth. Second, recurring EBITDA amounted to EUR 300 million, representing the 20.3% margin. Actually, I want to draw you attention the fact that this -- our expenses on the half year include a one-off EUR 10 million allocation for program to present under gambling over the next 5 years that we take in one shot. So excluding this one-shot impact, the margin would have stood at 24%. Then our net profit came to EUR 181 million. It is 30% up, thanks to a sharp improvement on our financial results, taking into account, of course, the rise in interest rates, positive our cash balance and a more favorable market environment. So in 2023, we expect reported revenue growth above 5% -- above 3% at constant perimeter with a recurring EBITDA margin maintained at around 24%. We will also -- and I will come back to that, continue strengthen our CSR commitment. And we have just as I said, announced the signature of an agreement to acquire Premier -- PLI, Premier Lotteries Island, the rate of the average national lotteries, which is, of course, a major step in FDJ international development. So to come back in our business momentum, I think we had -- we recorded solid growth in most of our businesses with strategic for sports betting, a double-digit growth across both distribution channel. We are still waiting for the Q2 online market figures that have not published yet, but we believe that we have been outperformed -- we're outperforming the market for several quarters, which we are very proud of. And we're also very pleased that our point-of-sale business has also outperformed the market growth over the last quarter. We also had a good mid-single-digit growth in instant game stakes despite a high H1 2022 comparison basis. This is sustained by the very successful relaunch of cash in February and successful launches of other instant games such as Carre Or, Club Color or Numero Fetiche. So the only point that was a little weaker than we have expected is Loto and EuroMillions stakes that have been falling a little bit short of our expectations. It's not the case for the baseline on stakes. Loto and EuroMillions growth continue to rise by mid-single-digit figure in H1, which clearly shows that those games have very good appeal for our players. But the semester and particularly Q2 was affected by a lower number of high jackpots. And you know that those high jackpots do affect the operator in terms of growth and also in terms of the levers that we have to develop our digital activity. So those are jackpots that we're talking about are those that are exceeding EUR 8 million follow to 75 million EuroMillions. They either come from out a series of [ unbound ] draws or are linked to natively high checkbook that we manage within the EuroMillions community and which start at EUR 130 million. And we were not lucky on this, particularly in June, when the less EuroMillions jackpots, which started at EUR 130 million was immediately won. So good for the player, not so good for the operator. So this impacts the half year growth by almost 1 point and also, as I said, weigh on the momentum of digital stakes since, as you know, high jackpots are very powerful recruitment lever for recruiting online players that, of course, we do also transform into players that not only play those digital -- those draw games. So we lack this level, particularly at the end of Q2, which can happen and -- but it is significant in this quarter. Also early in June, we have relaunched Amigo, our point-of-sale game with successive draws with a new formula that has been asked with by our regulator. This new formula is more restrictive in terms of reduction in the number of draws that have to be suspended, I'm not going to describe all the modalities, but have to be suspended for 15 minutes every hour. And also, by -- that has been affected by the reduction of the maximum amount per play, which is now EUR 8 versus EUR 20. So we have, of course, had some first impact of this. This was -- again, we launched early June. The decline in Amigo stakes is broadly in line with our forecast, but it will, of course, continue to impact the second half of the year. So all-in-all, these are the main drivers of our growth. With that, our online stakes grew by 13% overall. We had good activity at the point of sale with stakes up 3%. So that's the basis for our growth in this first half. So based on this first half that I just explained and the full impact of the new Amigo formula that we can expect on this basis for second half, we are now expecting on the full year, our revenue to grow by more than 5% all-in-all and by more than 3% on a like-for-like basis. We, of course, maintain our objective for the current EBITDA margin at around 24%. We have started, as we have explained in the first half to implement operating efficiency measures, in particular, to offset the impact of inflation on our cost base. And these measures will be continued and stepped up in the second half of the year to be in line with our EBITDA margin objective. In the meantime, we have continued because it's also part of our business model to strengthen our CSR commitment. I've been already talking about the increased support that we're going to pay for the prevention of underrated gambling, which is a very important subject on which we want to contribute. So we have this special exceptional allocation of EUR 10 million over the next 5 years that we have now committed to and which will start to be operational during the second half of the year. Our foundation is continuing its work. It has celebrated its 30th birthday. Since 1993, the FDJ Foundation has helped more than 300,000 beneficiaries and in several aspects, education, inclusion and so on. And with a very measurable social value impact. And we also quite committed and keen on the results that we have on our environment strategy and particularly the A rating that we got on the Axylia carbon score, which has been renewed. And also the fact that with our -- amongst the 4 companies in the SBF 120 with the best carbon score recognized by an A on the Verite40 index. So I will now maybe to say a few words about our new adventure, international adventure with the announcement of the signature of the agreement to buy PLI. Just to remind you, when we had our Capital Market Day in November 2020, we have been stating clearly that after being active for the last years, mostly through B2B strategy and contract, we were definitely convinced that we had to expand our international strategy to become, if possible, a B2C operator in lottery or in sports betting, depending on the opportunities that we could find. So we have, during the last month, we've been screening opportunities and looking at the ones that were available and interest in. And we have been -- so we've been part of the process that was launched by OTTP, which is the current owner of the operator that manage the Irish National Lottery. So we have been part of this process, and we have been chosen as the winner of this process, which has just been signed actually today. So the Irish National Lottery is -- so is the lottery operator that was privatized in 2014 with a 20-year license then valid until November 2034. It was awarded to a consortium led by OTTP, a Canadian Pension Fund, together with An Post, which is the Ireland National Postal Service. So this operator operates the lottery under exclusive rights in the Irish market, where 76% of adults are playing lottery game. It has 200 employees. It offers a range of around 45 games, available diversified network, 300 point of sales as well as online with over 15% digital stakes. Draw games in Ireland make up for 2/3 of the stakes and instant game 1/3 and 65% of its GGR is given to good causes through 4,000 charitable organizations. Premier -- so PLI has reported a GGR of EUR 399 million and NGR of EUR 140 million with an EBITDA margin that is very similar to FDJ. So we believe that this position is, of course, very important step in the deployment of our international ambitions. We believe that the average market is both well-regulated and dynamic. We know quite well the Irish National Lottery because it's a well-known partner, particularly in EuroMillions community. We share a lot in common in terms of ESG commitments and good causes funding. And we believe that we have a very interesting opportunity to work together within FDJ Group, to, of course, built further the value of this asset within this framework. So the completion of this transaction is, of course, subject to standard conditions, including approval by the Irish regulator of the National Lottery, which is expected to take place in the second half of 2023. So I will now, at this point, led the floor to Pascal to comment further our financial performance.

Pascal Chaffard executive
#3

Thank you, Stephane, and good evening, everyone. I will now come back just to our key figures for the semester, which up to the recurring operating income that compared with the first half of 2022 reported and on a like-for-like basis, like Stephane said, including L'Addition and Aleda on a full year basis. Our revenues are up 6.3% versus reported, showing the positive impact on our growth of our diversification strategy and 3.6% growth at constant perimeter. And also, as mentioned -- as Stephane mentioned, the low number of high jackpots on Loto and EuroMillions has limited the business growth by almost 1% in the first half of the year. Recurring EBITDA, i.e., recurring operating income adjusted for depreciation and amortization amounted to EUR 300 million, representing a EUR 23.3 margin, excluding the one-off impact of EUR 10 million for 5 years responsible gaming program already mentioned, it would have been 310 and 24% margin rate. Last year, adjusted H1 EBITDA margin was 25%, but in the context of a low sports betting PPO level normalized on H2 and lower costs on H1 2022, saved for World Cup on the second half of the year. Reported net profit rose nicely by 13% to EUR 181 million, and the net cash surplus is of EUR 941 million, an increase of EUR 41 million compared to end December 2022. And the definition of this metric has been slightly adjusted, and I will come back to this later. So let's now look in more detail our performance by business. Lottery sales rose by 1.3%, driven by a 2.3% increase in stakes. The momentum was good in Instant Games with a 4% increase wide draw games, as it has been said before, were down 1%, and they reflect the low Loto and EuroMillions high jackpots level of semester. It's a decline of about 10% in growth and more than 10% in stakes related to high jackpots. But what it is important to note is, as said, Stephane, the fundamentals of these games have not been disputed with the stakes of what we call baseline drove up mid-single digits. And the digital penetration of Loto plus EuroMillions and once more increased, it's now 24%. It was 22% before. Finally, as these games have a high stake to revenue ratio, the reduction in their relative weight explain the gap between the growth in stakes and the growth in revenues. And as regards to Amigo, we launched at the beginning of June with a revised formula in response to ENG, the regulator request. The decline, as Stephane said, is in line with our forecast, but the impact on the game itself is in line with what I've just said. And however, the carryover stakes that has been estimated, particularly [ in GIB's use ], slightly lower than our forecast and it will have an impact on the global year. In sports betting, also as it has been said, the business was very satisfactory this semester with revenues up 10% on the stakes, which increased by based on stakes increased by 13%. Both point-of-sale and digital have well performed. And as Stephane mentioned, Q1 growth is higher than the market. It's 3x higher on the -- when we compare the growth of the online and the market online and slightly above on the -- when we compare the pace of the online market and the figures of the offline market, offline activity of FDJ. The price payout gradually normalized in Q2 compared with the high level in Q1 as we announced during the Q1 communication. Nevertheless, on the whole semester, it was slightly higher, 80 basis points than H1 2022, which was, if you remember, particularly low. Business growth benefited from the momentum generated by the World Cup, as we said, during Q1, but also with a more extensive football calendar with some league matches being postponed until 2023. And finally, regarding our poker offer launched at the end of November and completed in January, the results are very good and even higher than our expectations. Today, around 20% of [ players playing online ] -- players also play poker up versus end 2022 level. And the revenues from our adjacent activities have grown by almost 14% on the semester, and we will see that in a minute, the profitability has improved with a lot of positive -- with a positive contribution margin. So now let's move to the EBITDA. It amounts at EUR 300 million, as it was said before, a margin of 23.3% and 24% if we take into account the one-off impact of the commitment to the prevention of underage gambling. Our main OpEx items now cost of sales comprises retailers remuneration. It amounts to EUR 493 million, in line with PoS stakes growth and other cost of sales, which increased by 6.1%, and this increase reflects the impact of inflation, for example, on our scratch card tickets and the bet slips transport, et cetera, et cetera. Marketing and communication costs were stable. They include, if I may recall, cost linked to the development of games and services offering, notably digital, which continue to rise and advertising and communication costs which are decreasing minus EUR 7 million. G&A expenses mainly include personnel costs and central functions as well as building IT infrastructure costs, et cetera. Their increase takes into account the EUR 10 million of the prevention of underage gambling already mentioned as well as inflation. To achieve our full year 2023 margin target of around 24%, stable compared to level of 2022. And with the restated H1 2023, we expect G&A to remain stable in H2 2023, in particular, compared with a high H2 2022 basis. More generally, as clearly, as already explained, we have to compensate the full year impact of inflation, which is actually closer to EUR 50 million versus the first estimate of EUR 40 million. Those extra costs are and will be offset through operational efficiency measures and cost savings. So now you can see on this -- on the next chart. On the left, you will find the EBITDA breakdown by business. For lottery, both the margin and the margin rates are virtually stable compared with H1 2022 at EUR 349 million and 36.4%, respectively. For sports betting, the contribution margin was EUR 74 million, an increase of EUR 6 million, representing a high 28.9% margin rate comparable with the one of H1 2022. And the contribution margin from the ABU was positive, plus EUR 3 million, and holding costs totaled EUR 126 million. As announced at the first time of our full year '22 results, the group has taken measures to improve profitability of its U.K. business. And on the 5th of July, a preliminary agreement was signed to sell Sporting Group's B2C spread betting business, which will be effective once the relevant U.K. authorities have given their approval, namely the FCA. And if we look at the evolution of the EBITDA in numbers. On the right chart, we see that the EUR 20 million drop is linked to the one-off holding and G&A costs that we have just mentioned. Now let's come to the bridge from the EUR 300 million EBITDA towards the EUR 181 million net profits. Depreciation and amortization of EUR 60 million are virtually unchanged from H1 2022 and mostly are related to IT and point-of-sale equipments. Nonrecurring items of EUR 40 million mainly include the impact of the revaluation of Sporting Group's B2C spread betting asset in the process of being sold as just mentioned, and the costs related to the external growth strategy. The financial results, which is a profit of EUR 19 million in the first half of 2023 compared to interest rates. And finally, the tax charge of EUR 65 million, corresponding to a tax rate of 26.8%, which can be extrapolated over the full year. To conclude a word about our cash. I think you are now familiar with this bridge. The main indicator of the group's cash position is its net cash surplus of EUR 941 million at June 30 compared with EUR 900 million at the end of last year. Just to mention, the calculation is now based on the new definition. And I would remind you that this is not appropriate to extrapolate the half year situation over the financial year. There is a strong calendar effect at the end of the year. One is certain. This is the payment in advance of December, the public levies of December and one is possible, which is the booking of a jackpot that has not been yet paid. I promise that I will come back to the net cash definition, this definition evolved to better reflect the group's net financial assets that can be mobilized in the very short term as we have an objective of doing M&A. And for nonconsolidated securities, mainly comprising shares in venture capital funds, innovation, et cetera, et cetera, are now excluded from it. So thank you for your attention. And now Stephane and I will be happy to answer your questions.

Operator operator
#4

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Ed Young from Morgan Stanley.

Edward Young analyst
#5

The first one was on PLI. It's obviously an exciting deal to be entering a different country. I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the opportunities you see to drive synergies on either the revenue or the cost line? And then the sort of other side of that would be, are there any areas where there are -- where there is potentially a need for more investment? I know there was some looking into using unclaimed prices for marketing in the past. Are there any deficits around either marketing or operations where there needs to be more investment made? Just love to hear your perspective on that.

Stephane Pallez executive
#6

Okay. That's your only question. I just was...

Edward Young analyst
#7

I've got a couple of these. I can ask them now or at the...

Stephane Pallez executive
#8

It's okay. So maybe let me start and maybe ask Pascal to complement. As you say, well, it is a very exciting -- it is very exciting deal. We've been, of course, looking at all the synergies that we might develop. At this stage, they are mostly revenues, synergies on revenues, although you should never, I would say, avoid to find the cost synergies, but they are first on revenues, and they are more linked on our capacity to bring expertise, both in games, in marketing, in instant games, for instance, since as you have seen, the Irish Lottery is more developed in draw games than instant games. We -- so, we have a number of themes on which we believe there is good possibilities to develop further revenues of the lottery based on our common exchange of experience and best practice. Second point, I think, is also that as you know, we are obviously a bigger lottery than the average lottery. And more specifically, I think a lottery that has invested more in its own capacities, own IT capacities to develop games. So there is probably some possibility to at the Irish Lottery benefiting from our capacities too. Which doesn't mean to answer your question, I think it doesn't mean increased investment as such. So it would be more to at the Irish lucky benefiting from the development that we do manage internally on our lottery business. And for instance, on our digital lottery business. So there, there is certainly also scope for development and efficiency.

Pascal Chaffard executive
#9

No, it's exactly that. What we have already done during the process, I will not go into too much detail, but we have already worked on a number of initiatives that will very concretely help PLI to benefit from our experience. For example, on marketing plans, on game design, on a number of things that are not very costful but that will, for sure, enhance the business of PLI. You have to take into account the fact that we are 3,000 people within FDJ, there are 200 people, they are good, but they are quite small, and we have a more important experience, and we can share this experience and really enhance the activity of PLI doing that. So this is -- we are really positive on the fact that we can fuel the growth of this lottery in a very responsible way, very compatible with what the regulator of -- Irish regulator is needing. And you had a question about the claim prices. And yes, claim prices are financing, marketing expenses into this lottery. This is set into the license and it will last until the end of the license. We have looked at this very precisely. There is no -- there is -- there has been some discussion around that, but those discussions will not lead to change this because this is part of the set of the license.

Edward Young analyst
#10

Understood. That's very clear. I'll ask the next 2 together, Stephane, so you don't have to wonder what I'm going to ask. My last few questions. Second, Amigo, is that around 10% of the lottery business? Could you help us out on the size it is currently in? And when you say it's currently performing as per your forecast and expectations in terms of the negative impact of the changes. Could you perhaps quantify or share what that range might look like to help us model? And then the final question is on online. I know your revised targets don't include online. I know that you said around 20 and probably that's difficult to get to given what's happened in Q2. Is that particularly important to you? Or do you think you're sort of just deemphasizing the online growth aspect within the guidance? Is it sort of just less important going forward to we may not get that sort of reinstated next year, if you like.

Stephane Pallez executive
#11

Okay. And maybe on Amigo you want to...

Pascal Chaffard executive
#12

On Amigo, we -- the share Amigo among the total luxury is you're right, something like 10% of the total 3, and the impact of the relaunch of Amigo is around 25% on this game. As Stephane said, the game has been cut by 2 draws each hour on the morning until 2:00. And the maximum stake has been cut from now EUR 8 and it was previously EUR 20, and we have a quite important effect on this game. The effect on this game was forecasted. We knew that perfectly. What is maybe a little bit disappointing is the effect globally around Amigo and not only on Amigo with the customers that are not playing Amigo and not playing other games also. So we will have an effect on the full year. But we have -- we reset Amigo at another level. And when this order level is now in the base, we will continue to grow after that. This is for Amigo. And do you want to comment on that?

Stephane Pallez executive
#13

Maybe on the online growth and online objective. First comment that I will make is that obviously, the objective that we have on online growth for us is more way level for us to reach our growth and EBITDA objective, that's an objective, a financial objective as such. Just -- it's not exactly at the same level. However, it is a very important medium-term level. So we consider it to be something that we continue to invest on. We had to accept that we have still this very direct relationship, not only between high jackpots and growth, but even more between high jackpot and recruitment on the digital, on the online lottery. So of course, this can also reverse depending on the long cycle that we get on the jackpots. So, we definitely think that we can do better than what we did this semester, not only by having luck by high jackpots to continue to do what we have started to do, which is to be less dependent on those jackpots. But obviously, we are still -- in terms of equipment, we are still not at the level that we would like to be. So we will definitely continue to work on that. Also, when we look at our action plan for first -- for second semester, we might actually have more room to work on our front in online because in the first half, we have been actually investing a lot in the change on our draw system, which was a big change that happened very nicely and smoothly and that actually is very keen to develop our strategy and our innovation in the next years. So we'll have more room to invest on the online experience, the online simplicity and so on. So I'm not going to promise to come back to 20% because it's definitely, I think, not realistic for the second half. But we're definitely going to continue to invest in medium term in order to have a better baseline in terms of online lottery than the one that we had this semester.

Operator operator
#14

The next question comes from the line of Jaafar Mestari from BNP Paribas.

Jaafar Mestari analyst
#15

I've got 3, if that's all right. And the most important one really maybe I'll ask this one first. This semester you had a couple of direct impacts, Jackpots Amigo relaunch. So you're also suggesting a couple of indirect impacts. For example, you say that the low jackpots have been negative in your efforts to recruit players online. You're also saying that the Amigo relaunch has impacted the other games that were played by the same players. Can you share some evidence that you have to make those correlations and to not just say that consumer demand is weak? For example, according to [ La Française des Jeux ], Amigo has a lower income demographic. So when you've done the homework to identify the weakness in the state growth, and I'm sure you found that was actually at the Amigo point of sales. What additional research do you do to be certain that this is the relaunch and it's not weakness in low-income consumers, for example?

Pascal Chaffard executive
#16

Yes. Yes, I can answer clearly on Amigo because on Amigo, we have a weekly monitoring of the states. So we know exactly what was the growth before the relaunch and what is precisely the impact of the relaunch and what is true is that before the relaunch, we were growing on Amigo and just after the relaunch, the stakes have been reset at 25% lower than the level it had before. What we can maybe say about the impact of the weaker consumption is maybe at the moment when we offer the opportunity to the Amigo customers to spend less money as we cancel the 2 draws out of 12 each hours until 2:00 in the afternoon and we lower the maximum stakes from EUR 20 to EUR 80. They really took the opportunity to lower their level of spend. Instead of compensating it, this is true. But the fact is that before the beginning of June, this game was growing, and this growth has been stopped by the change of the game.

Jaafar Mestari analyst
#17

Okay. And on online.

Stephane Pallez executive
#18

It is very -- this is a mix effect. And of course, we will continue to monitor this mechanic effect, but it seems to be very mechanic and very directly linked to the restrictions that were done on the game.

Pascal Chaffard executive
#19

And maybe a word to comment a little bit more on Loto and EuroMillions. If you're -- we have said that, but I think it's interesting to stress it. The baseline of those games is correct. What is the baseline? The baseline is the stakes that we have with the minimum jut with no fueling, no events, nothing. And this baseline is growing mid-single digits, not low, mid-single digits. So this is how we monitor that the health of those products is okay. This is also very true. What said, Stephane, about the recruitment, the consequences on the recruitment? It's on the recruitment online because we are -- we said that too much dependent at this time, but we are working to be less dependent on when we recruit new players on the online and our online offer, they are coming with high jackpots of Loto and especially EuroMillions. And when you have less high jackpots of Loto and especially EuroMillions, you have mechanically less requirement online, and we are working on other ways to recruit players online to be less dependent on those high jackpots.

Stephane Pallez executive
#20

So, we don't -- to answer your question, we don't see today. And of course, we've been monitoring this and asking also display. We don't see a sign of lower demand for a customer that would come as a consequence of the macroeconomic context or -- so it's really very linked to the characteristic of the -- those 2 games, actually, the one that we talked about. So Amigo because a change of formula and lower jackpots on grow base, but we don't see any sign of a general lowering of consumption demand.

Jaafar Mestari analyst
#21

Okay. Hopefully, the next ones are simple and quick. So just on the margins, the 24% target that's reiterated is that as reported? So it includes the EUR 10 million underage gambling campaign, meaning in reality, you'll be at 24.4%?

Pascal Chaffard executive
#22

Yes.

Stephane Pallez executive
#23

Yes.

Jaafar Mestari analyst
#24

Super. On the acquisition, so it's not consuming all of your surplus cash. You had EUR 900 million last December, even if I don't go into seasonality. So what do you think is the right level of debt for this company if we assume there's no financial penalty, no revision to the 2019 license costs? Can you at least be at 0 debt? Or do you have to maintain some net cash for some reason?

Pascal Chaffard executive
#25

No, we don't have to maintain some of the cash for some reason. And what we said previously is still true, is that we would be comfortable with the net debt-to-EBITDA level of 2x. We are far from that because we are...

Stephane Pallez executive
#26

So we are still some firepower.

Pascal Chaffard executive
#27

And we -- as we are cash generative, we will be able to deleverage quite quickly. So we can bear some debt, as we said, up to 2x EBITDA.

Jaafar Mestari analyst
#28

Super. And then lastly, on digital. So you've removed the 20% growth target for the year. It's just impossible to make that after H1, but do you think you will end the year close to 20%. And as a result, we're going to be very comfortable with the next 4 years of digital mix shifts? Or do you think this year as a whole will be a low year in terms of the digital recruitment?

Stephane Pallez executive
#29

Well, I think that given the profile -- what we had in the first half and given the profile of the year that we can expect in second half, it is absolutely unlikely that we will be close to 20%. So I think we will have to, I would say, say, at the end of this year whether this change or not and in which range, our assumption of digital growth. But I think it's too early to say now.

Operator operator
#30

The next question comes from the line of Kiranjot Grewal from Bank of America.

Kiranjot Grewal analyst
#31

Firstly, just building on the point of your net debt position, you would be happy with 2x and you're quite far off it. What sort of other deals are you considering? Are you still looking at deals now given you've done 2 in the last sort of recent period? Are you sort of waiting before you make your next move? So that's the first question. Secondly, apologies if I missed this during the presentation, but the incremental cost at the holding level in H1, how should these develop in H2 and next year? And then lastly, given your focus has mainly been sports and lotteries so far, when you're sort of looking at deals outside of France, would you consider sort of venturing out from just Sports and lotteries and potentially gaming as well?

Stephane Pallez executive
#32

Okay. So maybe I can take the first and the third question because they are quite...

Pascal Chaffard executive
#33

Second is for me, I know that.

Stephane Pallez executive
#34

I'll take 1 and 3, and Pascal will take the second. So I think our attitude on the potential deal is very pragmatic and linked to what I -- actually, what we put on the site that you have for the presentation just before -- just at the beginning of when we talk about the Irish Lottery that since November 2022, we've been very clear on the idea that we might consider B2C operation either in lottery or in online betting and particularly sports betting. So we have -- definitely, we have not said that we would consider only lottery. I think we are very satisfied to -- in a way to start with this deal with the Irish Lottery because it's very, I think, very close to our core business and expertise. So it's -- I think it's a nice way to start. But I don't think it has any meaning in choosing to make only -- to look only at assets in the lottery. So we are definitely active at screening the market for value-accretive opportunities. But I think we are very satisfied to have started with this acquisition given its sort of natural fit with what we are. So -- but again, it does not -- it's not the end of the story for us.

Kiranjot Grewal analyst
#35

Pascal?

Pascal Chaffard executive
#36

Yes. You can expect the G&A level to be stable in H2 compared to H2 2022. So it will help you to figure out the complete year.

Operator operator
#37

The next question comes from the line of Sabrina Blanc from Societe Generale.

Sabrina Blanc analyst
#38

I have 3 questions, if I may. The first one is regarding the guidance in terms when you get [ agoning ] sales growth for the full year. Just to understand the -- in terms of impact from Amigo high jackpot online, which one has the highest impact? And the second question is regarding the mitigation and the impact on EBITDA margin on the second part of the year. Could you provide more color and to finish by the acquisition, could we have an idea of the business model, how it works between return to players, the type of growth that they used to have before, just to have a large framework on the lottery there.

Stephane Pallez executive
#39

Okay. I'm not sure to have understood your second question about litigation?

Pascal Chaffard executive
#40

Can you repeat the second one?

Sabrina Blanc analyst
#41

You have mentioned some cost mitigation in the second part of the year, which could offset the inflation. Just -- can you provide more color on where it comes from compared to what has been done already in the group?

Pascal Chaffard executive
#42

Okay. Okay. So...

Stephane Pallez executive
#43

So the first one in the impact of our guidance, what is the relative what of...

Pascal Chaffard executive
#44

I can take -- I can take this one.

Stephane Pallez executive
#45

Amigo versus high jackpots.

Pascal Chaffard executive
#46

You can figure out 2/3 is related to the high jackpot of the first semester and 1/3 is related to Amigo full impact second semester. So for your second question, which is related to the cost mitigation. We have launched a number of initiatives to reduce cost, and they will have for some of them impact more important on H2. On H2, we will also not have the one-off impact of what we had first month of the year with the EUR 10 million that we already mentioned. And last year, at the end of the year, we had some extra costs that we will not have this year. For example, I don't know the exact translation in English, but [Foreign Language]...

Stephane Pallez executive
#47

It's a pre-retirement program.

Pascal Chaffard executive
#48

Program that has been accounted for at the end of last year for quite a nice figure and which will not be there in H2 2023. So it's a mixture of a clear cost reduction of all the costs have been touched. And also the fact that the basis of comparison will be easier on H2 2023 that it was on H2 2022. And your third question was related to the business model of PLI. This is quite very simple because it is exactly the same business model as one of FDJ. So we know it quite well. The figures are that 65% of the -- sorry, FDJ -- yes, 65%. It's like 65% of the GGR is -- has to be given back to good cases. It means that the rest is -- makes the NGR of the company. And when you have the NGR of EUR 140 million, you have an EBITDA margin which is much more the same of the EBITDA margin of FDJ and you find the level of EBITDA of this company. So it's quite very similar to the one of FDJ. The level -- the average level of the PPO is a little bit lower as they don't have any sports betting in their activity. In Ireland, it's different from France. There is a clear separation between lottery and online gaming and like in England, like in the U.K. and the operator of the lottery cannot do at the same time as sports betting. So clearly, the license refers only to lottery, 100% lottery. This is one of the difference between FDJ. And if you look at the historical figures of this lottery, the historical growth is something like 5% per year, very similar to the one of FDJ. And if you look at the mix between online and offline, it's a little bit better than FDJ's 15% online. It's 13% in FDJ today. And if you look at the mix between scratch cards and the draw games, it's 2/3 draw games and 1/3 scratch card, very similar to the U.K. lottery. But quite different from FDJ, we have a majority of our stakes made of scratch cards. And for example, we think that this is one of the areas in which we think that we can bring some more value, but also on the draw games to be clear. But clearly, this mix 2/3, 1/3 in favor of the draw games can be improved in the future. So it's a little system of the FDJ.

Operator operator
#49

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Spiegelman from Locust Wood Capital.

Matthew Spiegelman analyst
#50

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about -- more about online. I think in -- at the Investor Day in the past, you've talked about the drivers, the growth and enriching the game offering, the app and mobile usage and marketing the app. And in the past, we've had these sort of fluctuations when the prices move down, there's less enrollment. I was just wondering, are you seeing any changes fundamentally in the opportunity to grow digital? Or does it look to you more like a timing issue just in terms of what happened with some of the jackpots in the quarter?

Stephane Pallez executive
#51

I think what we talked about during the Capital Market Day is absolutely still valid in terms of our view of the opportunities that we have in online. So I would qualify it more as a timing issue. The timing -- there is sort of a short-term impact but very significant when you look at on the one semester with the lower level of jackpot than we expected. So that's one element of timing. There is also the fact that, well, growth in the point of sale is good. So that's another -- that's certainly another element. But all in all, I still continue to believe it is a very important driver, both of our growth and of our ability to -- also to increase the performance of the company. So I think it's more question of timing at this point, in my view. What -- also I wanted to -- so, yes, I'm trying to -- sorry, one thing I wanted to add, but yes, yes, sorry. There's one element also that I should add at this point for medium-term view of that is that since we know that draw games, again, have a very direct impact on our capacity to recruit people to come to our online business and then to transform them into full-fledged customer. The fact that we're going to launch end of October, a new draw game within the EuroMillions community with [ EuroDreams ]. I think, is an important factor. So it's not a factor that we can count on in full year since it's very late in the year for this year. But if, and this is what we are working on with all the community, if we are successful with this very important launch, again, which is the first big new game within the European -- the EuroMillions community since EuroMillions will have actually an additional lever to have more digital growth since again, there is still very close link between draw games and digital. So this comes late in the year, so it will not compensate what we have lost in this first semester with having lower CapEx. But it will definitely be something that can boost us again for the years to come, if it's successful.

Pascal Chaffard executive
#52

And maybe just to add one thing because it's important to have it in mind. The draw games have a digital penetration if we talk about Loto and EuroMillions, over 20% between 20% and 30%. And what we aim, obviously, is to have at least this level of digital penetration with these new EuroDream games. It's easier to transfer to have a higher digital penetration with draw game than with scratch cards. And if you look at the U.K. or lottery or the Irish Lottery, now we know it quite well. They have the same difficulty to transform the point of sales scratch cards to digital instant games, it's less easy. So it's important to continue to drive the growth on draw games that will also fuel the growth of the global online. And maybe just to add another thing, last thing, we have to recall what was with Q1. With Q1 we had a 20% growth on the online lottery and overall, more than that because to recall also sports betting online as a growth that is above 20% online from the beginning of the day and close to 30%. So you have to take off all that into account. But just coming back on the lottery, Q1 was 20% growth almost because we had 2 quarters, Q1 2022 and 2023 with the same style of a profile of jackpot profile. It was low jackpot versus low jackpot and we had this almost 20%. The second quarter, we were comparing to a high jackpot quarter in 2022. So, I think it's important not to be too quick to have conclusions as we just have 1 quarter with a low jackpot compared with the high jackpots.

Matthew Spiegelman analyst
#53

That's very helpful. And I just had one quick follow-up question, which was in regards to what happened with Amigo, as the investor base thinks about the regulatory changes in other areas, whether that could potentially impact you that are similar to this or whether this was really more of a truly one-off small impact. Can you just share any other thoughts on potential other regulatory shifts that may or may not have an impact on you based on what you see?

Stephane Pallez executive
#54

Just maybe one comment on that. I think, we -- this year, if you look at the type of regulatory decision that we had, we had -- so we had the decision on our advertising and promotion budget that we actually cut not only because of the regulator, but also because of cost efficiency that we cut by 20%. So that's one thing that I don't expect to do every year, clearly. Another thing that we had -- and again, it's sometimes -- something that you can imagine coming on a recurring basis often is, again, this very structural change of Amigo. So we definitely -- well, we had to do it. So we knew it was going to clearly decrease the level of this game. So all these are, again, big decision that -- and it's difficult to imagine the equivalent every year. So in fact, in a way, we took 2 big decisions this year. And at the end of the day, we are still, of course, a company with good growth and good profitability. So of course, the regulatory context is more respective that's true. But not, I think, but it's been quite restrictive on us this year. But in a way, I think we have taken already sort of big consequence of that, and we have sort of adjusted to that particularly in terms of how we manage our advertising budget with the regulator that doesn't want to have advertising completely to be done. But that is more on the view that it has to be selective and so on. But we already have taken this adjustment. So I think that's -- it's not, of course, an absolute answer. It doesn't mean that we will have only decision that we like. But I think it's difficult to imagine such a critical decision as the one that we had this year, every year to be frank.

Operator operator
#55

The next question comes from the line of from Citi.

Leo Carrington analyst
#56

Stephane, Pascal. Could I ask 3, please? Firstly, does the acquisition today imply potentially less for a focus on the diversification activities going forward as more attention is dedicated to the integration of the Irish assets and generating the revenue synergies that you've outlined already? Or can the 2 not be tied together like that? And then 2, probably quite quick follow-ups. Firstly, on the EUR 10 million allowance for safer gaming restriction of underage gambling. Can you outline the origins of this? Is this something the regulator has asked for? Or is this an opportunity that you identified and pursuing? And then third, very quick one. European Commission decision is still pending. I know this is mostly out of your hands, but any update on timing or anything you can share with us there?

Stephane Pallez executive
#57

Okay. Thank you very much. So on the -- I would start by the third one and go back to the others. European Commission, I would have loved to share with you news today because I'm as eager as you are to finish with this case. I'm eager because as I think stated, recently, we had actually very good news on the national basis on the decision that was issued by Conseil d'Etat. And that basically has confirmed that our exclusive rights are absolutely consistent with the European legislation. So it sort of narrows the question of the amount that we paid to a very, I would say, a very narrow discussion about whether the calculation could have been done differently, but -- it's really -- it's not any more, I think, a question about whether we have to pay for the full right, all this is now, I think, out. So I would love to come with a conclusion. I think it's -- it should be coming in my view, now it should be coming because, again, I think we've been advancing quite well to narrowing the discussion. However, as you said, it's not in my hands. So I'm pushing everybody to come to a conclusion. And of course, I would like to have this as quickly as possible since I'm, again, quite reassured by the elements that we had recently. On the EUR 10 million, it's definitely something that we decided and that was not required by the regulator. We believe that part of our mission and interest is really to prevent underage gambling. It's very high on the regulatory and political agenda. So that's why we invest, but it's on our own willingness to do it with a partnership with a very good actor specialized in that. And on our first question was whether we are going to be so much focused on the Irish Lottery. That we would be less focused on diversification. And when you talk about diversification, you, -- I guess you alluded to payment and services or.

Leo Carrington analyst
#58

Exactly. Exactly. And sort of -- yes. Yes.

Stephane Pallez executive
#59

Okay. It's absolutely not the same. I think it's absolutely compatible. It's not the same teams at all. So really on the areas that we, I think we commented a lot. It's really how we do project our expertise on our core lottery business on these assets. And on payment and services, it's really how we do capitalize on the value of the -- of our network and infrastructure in our network to grow a business that is in the first place is bringing more traffic, more clients in our point of sales, which is, of course, a very positive impact on our business. And of course, if we can develop it more, we will do more. But it's really very different type of strategy, not the same team. And so it's absolutely compatible.

Pascal Chaffard executive
#60

And to complement this answer, it's also other teams that are working on online gaming. So lottery, online gaming, payments and services, 3 type of teams when we talk about business teams globally. Corporate teams, it's shared resources, but we are equipped and organized to do both on the corporate side and on the business side it's a different, separate teams.

Operator operator
#61

The next question comes from the line of Alexandre Gerard from CIC.

Alexandre Gérard analyst
#62

4 quick questions from my side. First question, I just wanted to have your opinion on the hopes that we hear more and more in France regarding the regulator thinking of authorizing online casinos in France? What would be the likelihood of that? And would that be detrimental to your lottery games? First question. Second question is Pascal could come back rapidly on the financial results, the swing, which is important. Is it a cash impact or not? The third question, M&A-wise, do we have to understand that you might have an insurance for part of the Kindred Group, which is undergoing a strategic review at the moment? And last question regarding the Olympics front next year, would that be or might that be a major catalyst for you?

Stephane Pallez executive
#63

Okay. So, on the online casino rumor, as you qualified. Well, first, it's not -- I think that's important to say. It's not in the hands of the regulator. It's the hand -- in the hand of the parliament. Actually, it would require the parliament to vote a law to authorize online casino. So I think that's important because it's -- I would say, it's more definitely more complex and more public and open debate. Why is there this rumor? I think the main reason for this rumor is the fact that some actors, some operators are pleading for it. It's not completely new, but they have started to do it again. On the regulator side, I think the regulator, I said that they were going to try to understand what was the size of the illegal market and what was the right answer so they have not take -- they have not taken a definite position. So it is a debate that actually has already occurred in France, and was concluded by saying that it was actually a very dangerous idea in terms of creating more intensive figures and more risks. So this debate is happening again. And for me, it's difficult to say how it will end. On the potential impact on us, if this were to happen, I think it's fair to say that on one hand, it would probably impact our online lottery business. I'm not going to give any -- again, any figure because I think it's too early and non-appropriate to doing so. On the other hand, of course, if it was to be opened as an online operator in France, we would have to operate it also. So at the end of the day, what would it mean? I think it's really, again, not the appropriate timing to talk about it. Since all this, again, for me is absolutely not a certain and immediate scenario. On financial results, I think Pascal will take it. On M&A targets, as I said earlier, we are looking at all assets that could be value-accretive for us. So I won't -- I'm not going to make any specific comments on any assets more than that. And impact of the Olympics, I think that was your first question. Impact of Olympics is actually not very significant in terms of business, direct business because it's not such an important event as would be a football event. So in the whole year, it's not very significant. It is, however, a very interesting time to expose the FDJ brand, and that's why we are a sponsor. We are sort of a natural legitimate sponsor because we are investing a lot in sports. So it's a good occasion to expose our brand and we believe that brand exposure is value creative for a company like us.

Pascal Chaffard executive
#64

Yes. And to come back to the financial results. The swing, important swing between last year and this year is mainly due to interest rates and not the volume of our cash. The volume of our cash is a little bit higher this year than it was last year, but this is not the main point. The main point is that if you look at the way we invest this cash and it was last year similar to the one of this year. We have mainly our cash in cash-in-cash equivalents and intern deposits. Last year, the interest rate for those types of cash was barely 0%. And now it's something like 3% plus. so it changes a lot. So when you have a EUR 1 billion with a 3% or EUR 1 billion with interest rates. And last year, we had suffered from the mark-to-market of the stock part of our cash. It's a small part, and now we sold it totally. But last year, we have a small part. But as the markets were very down at the end of H1, we saw further allude from that. And we also suffered from the mark-to-market of bonds, medium-term bonds that have suffered from the higher interest rates, the rising interest rates. And those mark-to-market impact will be offset because we kept those products, and we will keep them until the end, and we will get this value back until 2024 or beginning of 2025. But mainly, if you look at EUR 1 billion cash with 0% and some mark-to-market negative impact on 1 year and a 3% interest rate on another year, it explains the whole thing.

Operator operator
#65

There are no further questions in the queue. So, I will now hand over to Mr. Pascal Chaffard to conclude this conference.

Pascal Chaffard executive
#66

I prefer to hand over to my CEO.

Stephane Pallez executive
#67

No, no, don't worry. We are team anyway. So thank you very much for your questions. I hope our answers were profitable and interesting to you. And of course, we look further to more change with you. Thank you very much.

Pascal Chaffard executive
#68

Thank you. Good evening.

Operator operator
#69

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

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