Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) Earnings Call Transcript
June 7, 2022
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Good afternoon everyone. Thanks for joining us for our next session here with Floor & Decor. I'm Justin Kleber. I cover retail and consumer services here at Baird. Many of you are probably aware of Floor & Decor is a high growth disruptor within hard surface flooring. They operate around 170 stores today, have a long-term target of 500, so still a multiyear runway in our view, for unit growth, market share gains and also margin unlock. Very pleased to have CFO, Trevor Lang, with us today as well as Matt McConnell from IR. Matt is going to read the safe harbor statement.
Great. Thank you, Justin. I appreciate you hosting us today and last night. Before we get started, I'd like to refer you to the standard safe harbor language included in our press releases as we may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Litigation Securities Act of 1995 throughout the course of today's presentation. Go ahead. Back to you, Justin.
[Operator Instructions] So first off, Trevor, we're asking all of our companies 3 kind of macro-related questions. First one is just around supply chain. So maybe just an update on how you would characterize your supply chain? And I'm thinking more so from an inbound perspective, product flow? Is it getting better? Is it getting worse, roughly status quo?
Good. So I'll also just say thanks for having us, Justin. It's been a fantastic day here. So enjoyed our time with you guys and investors. I think it's gotten moderately better. Over the last several months, you've seen in the public trade publications where spot markets, both on the domestic side and the international side have come down, and that's a reflection of there's just not quite as much demand. You've also seen demurrage and detention costs for others come down a bit. So moderately better, somewhat offset, it's less material, but somewhat offset by higher diesel prices and fuel surcharges. Obviously, fuel costs are high. So on the whole, slightly better than where we were several months ago.
As you think about -- maybe a follow-up to that, just in-stock levels at your business relative to, I think, access to inventory has been a big competitive advantage for your business since the pandemic started. So just maybe update us on where in-stock levels sit today, how that compares to what you guys see not only with the big box players, but also some of the independents and mom and pops.
Yes. And just a little bit of context. Our business was very strong. We opened our -- we closed our stores for COVID out of an abundance of caution. We opened our stores in kind of May of, June of 2020, and our sales were incredibly strong for -- up and including through last quarter. So almost 2 years now, our business has been very strong. So we've been chasing in stocks for a long period of time. We made the strategic decision really kind of about a year ago to increase our in-stock just because we felt like that demand was going to be there for a while, and we've been doing so for again the last kind of 6 quarters in a row. So our in-stocks are now are probably one of the best rates they've been in the last 2 years. We feel comfortable with where they are at this point. So we're in better shape than we've been for most of the last 18 months.
And then there's been a lot of news in retail recently even this morning on inventory and excess inventory. So Obviously, you guys are adding 20% unit growth, so that's part of the reason why your inventory balance is up. You have inflation. Just your comfort level with inventory composition, the makeup of your inventory, just given all the news across the landscape.
One thing that's a bit different about our business, too, is our trends change, but they change over years, right? A lot of the -- at least what I've been reading in the press, the trends that have changed, have changed in seasonal categories where you've got to sell something to make room for some new thing coming in. And we just don't have that in our business. Flooring, while there are trend changes, and we are important to make sure we're on top of those trends, again, they change over years not months. And so we don't have those issues. We've also got a very heavy replenishment business, where most of our sales dictate how we drive inventory. So if we're buying more, that means we're selling more. If sales slow, then the replenishment agent buys less. And then the other benefit we have, as you mentioned, is with 20% unit growth, like every retailer, sometimes we buy more of something that we don't need. But when you're adding 32 stores, every store is going to have roughly $3 million stored inventory plus another $600,000 to $800,000 in replenishment behind it, you've got the ability to take that inventory and put it in some of these new stores. So as we started the conversation, I think we feel good about our inventory levels as we see the world today.
The second question just on inflation and the pace of inflation, I guess, both from a cost perspective, but just also in terms of retail prices. Do you see it accelerating? Is it decelerating, again, kind of status quo relative to 3 months ago?
Our results, our ticket was up like 16.7%, and so that's very high for us. And I've been at the company for 11 years and most of that 11 years, our comps have been really strong, and most of that's been driven by transactions. So this is a very new phenomenon for us for our ticket to be led by -- our total comp to be led by ticket. There's really a handful of things that are driving our ticket increase. Probably most importantly is our merchants have done a good job on trend with better and best in the assortment. And as they've invested in that better and best, the consumers are voting with their checkbook and they're picking the better laminate or the better tile or the installation category. So that's one of the most important drivers of higher ticket. Our design business, many of you may know, we do free design services, something a little bit unique to Floor & Decor. That's really driving our ticket. Our design ticket is much higher than our regular homeowner, they'll sell the whole project. They'll make sure you get the insulation categories. They'll hopefully sell you a backsplash, something unique. That's driving our ticket. Our Pro business is very strong. For the last year, our Pro business has been outperforming our homeowner business. The Pro ticket is also much higher than the homeowner business. And our e-commerce, I think Tom quoted in our last call that our e-commerce business was up over 70% relative to our total sales growth of under 30% and our e-commerce has a higher ticket. And then those four are the main drivers of our ticket being up 16% -- over 16% in Q1. And then to a lesser extent, we've raised retails as most people have because of the higher cost. As we think about the back half of the year, our expectation was -- in the guidance is that we would expect our ticket to continue to grow throughout the rest of this year because we think all of those centric Floor & Decor strategies will continue to happen with Pro and design and e-commerce and good, better and best. But also, we expect mostly because of higher container costs in the back half of the year relative to the first half of the year. We expect to continue to have retail increases to offset that cost increase. And the final reason we think we can raise retails is when we look at the competition and we look at our pricing differential versus the competition, we feel good about where our retails are versus our larger competitors as well as our smaller competitors.
Is that price gap widening relative to -- I mean you've always had a price gap versus competition. Is it getting bigger?
I think if you really simplify, you've got our larger competitors that are much larger than us that have maybe 30% of the market. One of them quoted, inflation was up 10% and their gross margin rate was consistent. So they've raised retails enough to offset that 10% increase. And so -- and they also said, which is exactly what we said on our calls, it seems to date that the market's been very rational as costs have gone up, retails have gone up, and our larger competitors, in one case, margins were about flat and the other larger competitor, their gross margin actually went up. So people have been very rational -- our much larger competitors that we compete against. 60% of who we compete with are the small independents that have a storefront or two or maybe three. And in that case, I do think our competitive advantages have accentuated for 2 reasons. One, we haven't taken our retails up as much as we're seeing because we've got more sophisticated supply chain than most of our smaller competitors have. And two, we've got inventory, right? We've talked about before, we've actually invested in inventory. And so in many cases, we have inventory where some of our smaller competitors are struggling to get inventory in this complex global supply chain congestion that we're having. So a long answer to a simple question is everyone has remained rational at this point. And we have maintained against our larger competitors our pricing gaps and our pricing gaps versus our smaller competition, which is the majority of who we compete with have probably gotten a little bit better.
Great. I imagine you didn't get many questions on housing or interest rates today yet. So I will allot one of those in just the puts and takes within the housing market, right? Rising rates impacting affordability, turnover down, but you also have this massive wealth creation from home price appreciation. So I don't know how you think about the net-net of those 2 factors, just in terms of the demand drivers in your business. Is there a reason to believe the business would be less cyclical or less sensitive to rates this cycle relative to if we think back to what happened in 2018?
Yes, I'll talk about the positives first and I'll talk about the well-known negatives. I mean on the positive side, as you mentioned, there's been some research out recently that the 127 million housing units in the United States, 6.8 trillion with a T has accrued to homeowners and home equity value. That's a 40% increase over Q1 of 2019. On top of that, with the massive efforts that the federal government did to help during the pandemic, there's another $2 trillion sitting in people's checking accounts. So we serve a higher end customer. We think our average around $100,000. And so that homeowner has got very good levels of savings and cash reserves and their home value is worth materially more than it was. They were feeling pretty good about their job, right? Unemployment is low, wage growth is good. Then probably the biggest factor that gives us comfort, maybe not so much on the short term, but certainly in the long term is 80% of those 127 million housing units in the United States are over 20 years old. And so product wears out, you have to replace windows and doors and flooring over time. And so I think there's going to be a natural replacement cycle just because we're not building enough homes, we don't have enough homes for the population growth and the immigration that's happening. So those are all the positives. The negatives are well known. Interest rates have gone up and mortgage rates have gone up from below 4% to over 5%. And inflation is pinching the consumer across everything they buy. We've now had 8 months of negative existing home sales, goods spending share of the economy is 20% above what it was pre-COVID. That's going to likely come down as people spend more on services. And then all the complexity of the geopolitical, both from the war perspective as well as what's its impact on commodity prices like fuel and gas and all that. So what does that mean for Floor & Decor? When we built our plans and reiterated our guidance in the first quarter, as we thought through all that, our transactions were down just over 2% in Q1. They were down 4% in March within Q1 and then they were down 6.7%. We said we would expect because of the macro that our transactions would continue to be decline throughout the rest of this year, so maybe that's negative high single digits as we exit the year. But we felt like our ticket would more than offset that. And on a 3-year basis, if we were to achieve the objectives that we put in our guidance, you'd still see pretty robust comps come through for the rest of this year. We said the trough would be in Q2. We were comping 10 as of the call a month ago. We felt like that number would grow. And when you looked at our comps on a 3-year basis, which takes out a lot of the COVID complexity, that our comps would probably be at a similar rate as we exit the year. So that's how we thought about guidance. I think the big caveat that we don't know is what's going to happen with the macro and consumers have obviously gotten a lot more concerned over the last several months. And we'll see how it all plays out. But I think what's so different about this cycle versus the previous 2 cycles is that massive wealth effect that seems to be buttressing the home sector more is because they've got record levels of cash savings and the home equity values are materially higher than they were.
Makes sense. And we often get asked just a question on pull-forward in demand, normalization and demand, so I want to ask it in the context of mature store AUVs, like where those sit today relative to prepandemic levels? Because obviously, so much of the growth is new stores and maturation, so maybe where those mature store AUVs relative to pre-COVID.
Yes. Our stores over 5 years old are doing $27 million in sales. If I go back to 2019, I think, I'm doing this for memory, it would have been in the transcript somewhere, but I think those average volumes for stores over 5 years were probably closer to $22 million, $23 million in sales. So there's no question that COVID benefited us. We were -- before we shut down our stores in COVID in Q1 of 2020, we were comping 6 and then we essentially comp 20 for the back half of 2020. And last year, we comped almost 27%. So part of that is growth. Part of that is pull forward. What I don't know, though, was a big part of that, though, was people had found money because of the fact they couldn't spend it on services. They weren't taking trips. They were stuck at home. And so I think there was also a portion of this that was just people did jobs that they otherwise might not have done.
27% versus 23%, that's 17%. That doesn't sound like a massive pull-forward over a couple of -- I mean, what -- your mature stores normally grow low to mid-singles. Is that?
I think we were -- if you were -- if we were comping in kind of that mid-single digits to upper single digit comp, yes, your mature stores are doing some level -- some number below that mid-single-digit comp, so yes.
Maybe let's pivot over to store growth, and you guys recently increased the target from 400 to 500. Maybe just talk about the key drivers underpinning that increase? How much was just market growth versus your ability to maybe densify markets.
Yes. We -- the 400-store goal had been with us since we went public. We went public just over 5 years ago, and we've opened a substantial amount of stores. 60% of our store count has been opened subsequent to our IPO. So we opened a lot more stores. We now have stores in all parts of the country that are much closer in proximity to existing stores. And we just saw the volumes of those existing stores be great as well as the new stores. And we also hire very competent data scientists to help us evaluate the business, a couple of different consulting firms. And we've done -- since I've been with the company 11 years, we've had 3 or 4 different firms come in and look at this and they all come to the same conclusion, which makes a lot of sense. When you look at what drives the most successful store count in our business is density of population. Obviously, the more homes that exist, the more opportunity we have to sell to them. Household income and household values is number two and number three. We do better with owners versus renters. And since we know that for all 335 million Americans, we have a pretty good sense of where we can add stores. And because we have densified our stores in markets all over the United States, we found out that we can have more stores relative to what we thought before. And I think the other piece that has given us some confidence about that is when we open a store, and let's say it's 10 or 15 miles from an existing store, which is pretty close for a big flooring store like ours, that -- we may have a 10%, 20% cannibalization on that store for a period of time. But what's been interesting is usually within 18 months or 12 to 18 months, depending on the store, that store a year after it gets cannibalized, we'll start comping positive again. And again, within a year to less than 2 years, it will get back to its original volume. So all those things, the science of it as well as just our experience of how the stores have performed is how we feel comfortable that we can get to at least 500 big-box stores.
And then if the macro does soften more dramatically, does that change the 3-year outlook to add 20% units per year? Or do you -- I mean, maybe that provides an opportunity to capture more market share and a tougher...
Yes. I think the only thing that would cause us to consider slowing 20% unit growth would be 1 of 2 things. One, for whatever reason, we thought there were some issues with liquidity, again, don't expect that to be the case. But if indeed, we have a very low leverage relative to the size of our EBITDA and the size of our balance sheet. But we -- in 2020, when COVID hit, we decided to really ratchet down our store growth because -- and an abundance of caution knowing how bad that was going to be. That year really had 11% unit growth. So that would be one reason. The other reason is, which again, I definitely don't think it's going to happen. Today, we're shooting to get a 25% return on invested capital for the capital we deploy in those stores when we look at the total cost, including working capital and preopening expenses. If we felt like we weren't going to get that 25% return on invested capital. And my experience, I've been doing this for almost 30 years, we're not in a recession. Hopefully, we won't enter into a recession. But if we did, the first 6 to 9 months of recession could be tough for any company, especially a growth company because you're growing into an environment where things are slowing. But the second half of the recession and then going into the recovery for the next 2 to 3 years allows you to take massive market share because you're in such better position relative to the competition because they've either gone out of business or they haven't made the right investments. And so -- while none of us is hopeful that we enter into that recession, if we do, I think the low-cost operator will take market share in that environment.
That's helpful context. Just pivoting maybe to pro, obviously, a very important segment to the business. I guess if you're a pro, what's the most important aspect? Is it price? Is it service? Is it inventory? Is delivery. And then I always felt like I was a pro, why wouldn't I shop at Floor & Decor?
Yes. The answer is yes, all of those. I think for us, it always starts with the assortment. We're a merchant-driven organization. Our pros want to put the best products in our -- their customers' homes. They want to give an incredible experience to their customers. So for us, it's all about how do we get the best product. And from there, service is incredibly important. If you don't have a team that's dedicated specifically to the Pro and the Pro customer, it's a relationship business, you have to be able to help them solve problems. Our stores have dedicated Pro areas. If you've been to our stores, it's a separate area that we have a handful of employees anywhere from 5 to 15 employees that do nothing but take care of the professional customer. It's a bit of a belly-to-belly business. You've got to build those relationships, you got to take care of those. So the relationships matter. Having in-stock inventory is incredibly important to that professional customer. You can imagine in an environment like this where it's harder to get inventory. If you actually have it, that's a huge advantage. We allow our pros to store their product with us. We can't do that with almost any of our other competitors. So they or their clients can buy the inventory and pick it up 2 or 3 weeks later. We have great credit options for our pros. We have a fantastic loyalty program that allows our pros to be rewarded for shopping with us. We don't charge restocking fees. A lot of our smaller competitors charge restocking fees. So all that to say, when you service a professional customer, it's all those features and attributes in totality that allow us to take market share. And then the second part of your question is why don't we get more of the pros? Why don't pros shop with us? We generally hear 3 reasons why we don't have more of the pro's wallet. The first of those is convenience. If they have to drive over a 30- or 45-minute drive, they'll just figure out something closer. And we'll obviously solve that over time with opening more stores and doing a better job with the website and the app. So that one will solve over time as we open more stores. The second one is it takes time to build relationships. Most of -- a lot of our stores are in new markets and lot of these pros have been shopping with either the bigger competitor or an independent for years, and it will take us time to win them over. And then the third reason is we've got a very core philosophy of everyday low price. We think that is that has proven to be a very strong winning strategy across any concept in retail. And a lot of our competitors will give rebates or kickbacks or some sort of incentive to that Pro to buy from them that the customer may not know about and that's just not the way we go about doing business. And that we get often asked, why don't I get a customer -- or why don't I get a professional contractor discount? Why don't I get a discount? And we go back and talk about all those features and attributes that I talked about earlier that more than offsets those things. So I think we've got a good market share with the pros. We've got -- we're leaning into a lot of those strategies. Our Pro business has been comping at a much higher rate than our homeowner business for the last year, and we think that will continue to occur for foreseeable future.
Then just on commercial, you have kind of a dual pronged approach to attacking the market, so maybe touch on the RAM strategy versus the value creation opportunity with Spartan. And then just bigger picture, the relative fragmentation of commercial compared to your core residential.
Yes. And just for a little bit of context. So most of what we've done in all of our history has been in a residential application, so you're going to redo a bathroom in your house or a kitchen or a basement. As we were growing, we were starting to see more commercial customers come into our stores and buy products, which was odd for a commercial general contractor or a commercial flooring installer to come into a retail application, buy products. So as that was happening right about the time of the IPO, we said, well, why don't we try to hire some commercial sales reps, professional commercial sales reps because that's all they do is called commercially. We had good success with that. We were growing that business at a pretty fast rate. About 2 years ago, we decided to really dig into why we were having success and how big was the market and how could we grow that market. And what we came away from that study was finding out that where we were having a lot of success with our regional account managers, which are very competent, professional sales reps that call on customers is 40% of that market, which is downstream, it's an owner operator, it's a general contractor, it's a flooring installer that we can go in and give them hopefully a better product to lower cost. Where we weren't having success and we felt like it would be a longer, more complicated professional sales cycle for us to get was that upstream A&D, our architectural and design firm. So a hotel or condominium might hire an architecture design firm to help them build out the entire project, flooring will be a piece of that. We felt like that would be harder for us to get into that market. And so a year ago, we bought this company called Spartan, been a fantastic acquisition for us. The entire management team is still with us and highly incented to be with us. And so that's how we felt like we could go after the 40% percent of the commercial market that we're having success with. They would focus on the 60%, which is at A&D. And what was appealing to them about us was access to our product, right? We've got this amazing product, 240 vendors in 24 countries, much -- a really good-looking product at a low cost. That was what's appealing to them. And so that's how we're attacking that market. The commercial market is about, I think, it's 60% to 70% the size of the residential markets. About $13 billion dollar market and we're adding sales reps both on the regional account manager side and we're adding sales reps on Spartan side. Today, we're operating them separately so they can focus on those aspect of the market and having good growth, I think, Tom mentioned on the last quarter announcement. So it's coming from a small base but the commercial sales were up over 80% in our first quarter. So we are in our early stage of growth. We've done some small acquisitions in that space and maybe more of that to come over time. But it's definitely a focal point for us. And then the final piece of that industry, your question about who is the dominant players in that today, we estimate that the biggest players in that industry today are the large domestic manufacturers, so Mohawk, Shaw, Tarkett, Mannington, companies like that. About 30% of that industry we estimate are companies like Spartan that are regional specifiers that have the ability to source something unique and special from an international vendors so they can compete against the domestic manufacturers. And the remaining 5% to 10% is actually being bought at retail. So if you really simplify that business, we have the great vendors that can create incredible product. We built this big sophisticated supply chain that allows us to have high quality products at a low cost. We can execute those same product strategies in a commercial business like we've had success in the residential business.
So it seems like a lot of optionality in the business for sure. Maybe a few financial question just on your gross margin guide for the year, you talked about sequential improvement coming off of 4Q. You delivered that in 1Q and I think guidance continue to progress. How much of that predicated on the supply chain cost rolling over versus this retail pricing actions?
The main driver of what's driving our -- what we think is an improved gross margin throughout the rest of this year is changing our retails and increasing our retails. Now we have had a bit of a benefit as we started the conversation with supply chain cost, getting a bit better here recently than we had seen with lower spot market rates both domestically and internationally. So it's going to be a combination of both retail increases and hopefully this market stays where it is. We're not seeing the same levels of volatility that we've seen in international cost in demurrage, drayage and domestic transportation cost. More of it will come from a retail increase as we exit this year. But we are getting benefit from lower supply chain cost that we have previously thought.
And then the end of the year, based on the guide, you'll be about 250 bps below 2020 on gross. Can you help us understand how much of that is just the supply chain cost versus some compression in product margins from just rising input cost?
Most of -- our gross margin were down 300 basis points in Q4, little bit more than in Q1. And almost all of that has come from higher international container cost, drayage cost, detention cost, domestic container cost. And for us our products are heavy and dense, and so our supply chain cost, as our percentage of our cost to sales, just because I work with one of retailers that I know what some of those cost are. Our supply chain cost are just so material because our products are very heavy and they take a lot of room. They are very dense. And so I think what will allow us to get those margins back into the 42%, maybe even aspirationally the 43%, is if we all have some sense that as a good sector of the economy slows a little bit, that you're going to have some excess capacity or maybe not as tight of capacity and so if we continue to see, and I don't think this going to happen this year, but let's be optimistic and maybe we'll have some of that happen in 2023 and 2024. If you start to see those container costs come down, you start to see diesel cost come down, you start to see domestic transportation cost down, we are very vocal about this in Q4. We paid tens of millions of dollars in detention and demurrage. And in our past, we probably didn't have those cost, but those cost go away. That's what we would be optimistic about that we can continue our gross margins in 2023 and 2024 under the auspice that this unique environment where we've never seen supply chain cost grow so fast and so volatile. If those things get better, that's how we'll have the gross margin continue, that gross margin accretion in '23 and '24.
Helpful. Just if the sales environment is more challenging, say, across the back half of the year, how much OpEx flexibility do we have in the business? Obviously, adding 20% new units, you have payroll, you have rent that's coming online regardless of the sales environment, so just trying to understand the opportunity. Let's say comps are high single digits, it's not within the guidance, which is 10-ish to 13%. Like do you -- can you still hit your profit goals in that environment? Do you have enough discretionary buckets of expense that you can pull back on? Or would you even do that?
I think for that close -- if you're at the low end of the guidance from a comp perspective, I think it was 10 or 10.5, and if we came in with a high single digits, it's possible that we could still be in the range of the earnings. We obviously just have to model it out and see what it looks like. If we start to fall below that high single-digit comp, it will definitely more challenging because there's -- we've said this, hopefully there's kind of 55-ish percent of our store level operating expenses is fixed. Our corporate expenses are even more so fixed than that so it will be harder to achieve those profit goals if we come in much below the low end of the comp guidance range we gave.
Okay. And just pivoting back, some of the initiatives, we didn't touch on the designer services. One of the newer strategic pillars of the company, and so the utilization of those services between your customers segment, whether that be Pro, the homeowner and then you made some enhancements to the organizational structure, I think you have it an in-home test going on, so maybe just in the last few minutes we have, provide an update on what you're seeing from the designer services.
Yes. We started our design strategy probably 5 years ago, but we really got focused on it probably the last 3 years. We've put one of our strongest regional leaders out of Chicago, promoted him to an officer level position and asked him to come in and really study what we did in Pro and let's do some of those same successful strategies that we've done in Pro. Let's do those in design. And it starts with basics, you got to hire the right people. You've got to get them training. We have great tools to metrics. What -- how many appointments are you booking of those appointments that you're booking? How many are you converting? Of those converting, what's the sales? What's the average ticket? What's the gross margin? What's your attachment rate? So we have great tools to help people understand both the training and then hold them accountable and help them see where they have opportunities. And we have a small regional team that helps them both train as well as help them understand where their metrics are, and where they have opportunity in those metrics. But at its core, it's as simple as customers need help. They don't do these projects all the time. If you're doing a bathroom, there's some complexity in that. If you're doing a kitchen, there's obviously complexity in that. And having someone who knows how to draw that up and can help you pick the right products, something to make your product special, make sure you get the right installation categories, all those things are helpful. When our designers are involved, as I mentioned, it's one of the highest tickets we have in the entire company. The gross margin rate is higher because we get them to buy or we help them make the decisions to buy the installation categories and the decorative products that are higher margin. And interestingly enough, our ranking, so our Google, our Yelp, our Pinterest, our Instagram ratings are highest when the designers are involved, which is great for word of mouth as well. So it's an important strategy, one of the pillars of -- 5 pillars of our growth, and we're in the early stages of executing, and it's something they really don't want at the Home Centers either. So It's something unique and special, and we're in the early stages of investing in it, and it's performing well.
All right. Great. Well, I think we're going to wrap it up there. Join me in thanking Trevor and Matt for joining us today. Appreciate it, guys.
Thank you.
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