Foxtons Group plc (FOXT) Earnings Call Transcript

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining the Foxtons' 2026 Half Year Results Presentation. I'm joined by Chris Huff, Group CFO, and we will answer any questions at the end of the call. This morning, I will take you through some of the highlights for 2025 and provide an update on the London property market and further detail on the impact of the Renters' Rights Act. Chris will then talk you through the financials and the performance of each of our businesses in more detail. Finally, I will outline the operational progress that we've delivered in the half before finishing with the outlook for the rest of the year. On Slide 5, we've outlined the key takeaways from this results presentation. To put these results into context, the market backdrop was highly challenging in the first half. The sales market was subdued as domestic political uncertainty and conflict in the Middle East have led to higher borrowing costs and weaker consumer confidence. At the same time, the usually highly stable Lettings market saw some short-term volatility from the introduction of the Renters' Rights Act or RRA. The RRA is the most significant piece of legislation in the generation and has overhauled key elements of the Lettings market as we outlined in March. Its implementation created a period of adjustment in the market, resulting in higher levels of tenant-led terminations through May and June. Against that backdrop, these results demonstrate the resilience of our business model. Over the last 4 years, we have deliberately repositioned the business towards Lettings through organic and acquisition-led growth initiatives, and that strategy continued to prove its value in the first half. Today, 69% of group revenue comes from noncyclical and reoccurring activities, and that compares to 65% in the prior year. This reflects the progress that we have made in growing our Lettings portfolio, which now stands at 32,000 tenancies. It also means that Foxtons is far less exposed to the sales market cycles than it previously was. And this can be seen in group revenues remaining highly resilient, only declining 3% despite the highly challenging market backdrop. In Lettings, the core focus of our business, we continue to make progress against our organic growth strategy. Prior to the impact of higher earlier terminations, the underlying business delivered revenue growth. The core business remains stable, and we're making good progress in capturing the growth opportunities that the RRA creates with growth in both build-to-rent and the cross-sell of property management. We also continue to execute our acquisition strategy. Acquisitions in new markets in Milton Keynes and Birmingham were completed earlier in the half, creating strong platforms in high-value markets that complement our London base. We're already seeing growth from aligning these businesses with the Foxtons operating platform and have built a strong pipeline of further bolt-on opportunities in these markets across our wider network. Cross-sell is an important part of our growth strategy. As we highlighted at our Capital Markets Day last year, high-margin ancillary products and services improved both profitability and customer lifetime value while strengthening our ability to support customers through their property life cycle. And in the half, we delivered growth across each of the 3 businesses. Finally, we responded proactively to market conditions. During the first half, we delivered GBP 4.5 million of cost savings, completed a detailed operational review of the sales business and are implementing changes at pace. We also increased our RCF capacity to GBP 50 million to support our growth strategy, and Chris will provide more detail in his section. These actions support profitability today whilst ensuring that the business remains well positioned for future growth. Turning now to Slide 7 and an update on the London Lettings market. The market remained resilient despite the implementation of the Renters' Rights Act. Fundamentally, the structural imbalance between supply and demand remains across our markets and continues to underpin our focus on Lettings. In H1, tenant demand remained very strong. And as you can see from the chart, we saw an average of 17 renters per property during the period, up 4% year-on-year. And that demand means that properties are letting at the fastest pace that we've seen in 4 years. This demand means that rental values remain elevated and broadly stable. Affordability constraints are naturally limiting further short-term price growth, but the market remains highly attractive from a landlord perspective. In fact, today, we're seeing some of the highest yields available to landlords in recent years, naturally that I've seen in my nearly 20-year career in London property. So in summary, the underlying fundamentals remain unchanged. Demand for rental accommodation continues to exceed supply as London remains one of the most attractive places in the world to live and work. And offsetting this, housing delivery remains constrained. Taken together, these factors continue to support a positive long-term outlook for the sector. On this slide, I will take you through an update on the Renters' Rights Act, including what we're seeing on the short-term and longer-term expectations. As I mentioned earlier, the RRA is the biggest change to the industry in a generation and in fact, since the Housing Act in 1988. Alongside a host of new regulations and compliance requirements, the removal of fixed tenancy lengths is the biggest change. Rental agreements are now an open-ended basis and tenants are able to leave at any point by giving 2 months' notice. As expected, some tenants took advantage of this new ability. The impact was greatest following implementation in May and has reduced across June and July. The additional terminations fell broadly into 3 categories. First, tenants for whom the property was no longer the right fit; secondly, students making use of the increased flexibility under the new rules; and lastly, there was the normal tenancy churn that would have previously occurred at the end of the fixed term. Importantly, the underlying picture was broadly stable with the vast majority of tenants remaining in occupation. Against the portfolio of 32,000 tenancies, we experienced around 150 additional terminations per week. Whilst this is higher than historical levels, it remains a very small proportion of the overall portfolio and demonstrates that most tenants have continued to behave as expected. Importantly, these terminations are tenant-led and are not driven by landlords exiting the market. Our focus is on firmly getting these properties back to market and getting them let with new tenants for our landlords. Whilst there's been clearly some short-term volatility, we're also beginning to see the evidence of the opportunities we anticipated. The new regulations increased complexity, compliance requirements and therefore, value of our professional advice. As a result, more landlords are choosing to work with professional agencies, and we're already seeing this with an increased proportion of landlords taking up our management services. Build-to-rent volumes also grew in the half as we deepen our relationships with institutional clients who are also seeking support from Foxtons in navigating the more complex operating environment. Looking ahead, our view remains unchanged. We continue to believe that RRA can create significant medium-term growth opportunities by continuing to increase demand for professional agency services, improving the take-up of ancillary products and property management as we -- as well as driving further industry consolidation. All of these trends play directly into Foxtons strengths in brand, scale, technology and operational capability. So while the market is currently working through a period of adjustments, we remain highly positive about the medium-term opportunity. Moving now to Slide 9 and an update on the sales market. The sales market was highly challenging in the first half. Macroeconomic weaknesses, long-running domestic political uncertainty and the conflict in the Middle East have fed through to higher borrowing costs and weaker consumer confidence. And as expected, these weighed on activity levels. Exchange volumes across London were down 13% compared with the prior year. It's also worth remembering that 2025 benefited from stamp duty-related activity, creating an even stronger comparator. New home sales were more significantly impacted as both developers and buyers remained cautious in the prevailing market environment. Sales volumes in our commuter town businesses were less impacted than London, down 6% year-over-year and highlighting the increased resilience our geographical diversification strategy is creating. Buyer activity continues to be held back. Whilst new sales agreed were improving through January and February, momentum faded following the conflict in the Middle East and is now impacting on borrowing costs. Domestic political uncertainty added further pressure and transaction volumes over the half were down 11%. Given that buyer demand leads transaction activity by several months, the current level of sales agreed suggests that a meaningful recovery in market volumes is unlikely in the near term. That said, demand has not disappeared, and there is still high levels of pent-up demand in the market where sellers are motivated and reflecting current market dynamics in their pricing strategies, we are still seeing strong levels of buyer interest and offers and ultimately achieving successful outcomes. I'll now pass over to Chris for a run-through on the financials.

Thank you, Guy, and good morning, everyone. The group delivered resilient H1 revenue despite the well-trailed sales market headwinds and a period of adjustment in Lettings following the introduction of the RRA on 1st of May. Financial highlights are set out on Slide 11. Group revenue was 3% lower with Lettings flat, sales down 13% and Financial Services up 20%. We delivered GBP 8.9 million of adjusted operating profit or AOP, down 29% on the prior year. The primary factors impacting this was lower sales revenue as a result of depressed market transactions and GBP 3 million of tenant-led revenue reversals due to early terminations post RRA, which has a high drop-through to AOP. Cost control remains a major area of focus for us with GBP 4.5 million of annualized cost savings implemented in the period, of which GBP 1.3 million benefited the H1 results. AOP margin decreased by 400 basis points to 10.6%. Adjusted EBITDA, which is defined on the same basis used to calculate the group's RCF covenants, reduced by 25% to GBP 10.4 million. Statutory profit before tax was GBP 4.4 million. Net free cash flow was GBP 1.4 million, GBP 2.2 million lower than the prior year and reflects lower sales revenue and an expected working capital outflow linked to the rollout of more competitive landlord billing terms. Finally, the interim dividend is unchanged at 0.24p per share. Turning now to Slide 12, which provides an overview of the income statement. Group revenue decreased by 3% and continues to be underpinned by Lettings revenue, which accounted for 65% of H1 revenue. Direct costs increased by GBP 0.4 million, reflecting savings from rightsizing actions as part of the H1 cost reduction program, offset by incremental direct costs from acquisitions and other inflationary pressures in areas such as national insurance and national living wage levels. Contribution was broadly flat at 64%. Overheads were GBP 1.3 million higher, reflecting incremental acquisition overheads and inflationary increases, mitigated by back office and head office property cost saving initiatives. In total, GBP 4.5 million of annualized savings were implemented in H1, of which GBP 1.3 million benefited H1 with the full year expected to benefit by GBP 3.5 million. The annualized cost savings comprised GBP 3 million from the proactive cost reduction program announced within our Q1 trading statement and a further GBP 1.5 million from the head office relocation in January 2026. Depreciation, amortization of non-acquired intangibles and share-based payment charges were GBP 0.4 million lower. Together, these movements delivered adjusted operating profit of GBP 8.9 million. Statutory profit before tax was GBP 5.8 million lower than the prior year, reflecting the lower adjusted operating profit and GBP 1.8 million higher adjusted items. Adjusted items primarily reflect noncash LTIP charges consistent with full year 2025 reporting, noncash branch impairment charges for a small number of underperforming branches, which have been particularly impacted by sales headwinds and reorganization costs linked to the cost-saving measures. The cash impact of these adjusted items is around GBP 0.4 million in the half. Turning now to Slide 13 and performance in Lettings. Lettings revenue continues to be noncyclical and reoccurring in nature and underpins the group's earnings, notwithstanding the short-term revenue volatility experienced following the introduction of the RRA, which I will speak to in a moment. Lettings revenue was flat at GBP 54.7 million. Within this outturn, we delivered organic and acquisitive growth. Specifically, we delivered underlying organic growth with GBP 1.9 million higher like-for-like Lettings revenue, which reflects good growth in build-to-rent and the cross-sell of ancillary lettings products. We also increased penetration of property management by 10% versus the prior year, which will benefit the business in the future as revenues annualize. And we also benefited from GBP 1.7 million of incremental revenue primarily from the acquisitions in Milton Keynes and Birmingham. However, this growth was offset by 2 revenue headwinds. Firstly, GBP 3 million of reversals of previously recognized contractually due revenue following elevated tenant-led tenancy terminations after the adoption of the RRA. Secondly, GBP 0.4 million lower interest earned on client monies due to lower Bank of England rates. Volumes were 6% higher, whilst revenue per transaction was 6% lower, with both metrics reflecting expansion into higher volume but lower value markets via acquisition. Revenue per transaction in Foxtons core markets was flat at GBP 8,700 per deal. Contribution declined GBP 0.6 million or 1% to GBP 40.9 million. And adjusted operating profit declined by GBP 1.3 million, reflecting the high profit drop-through of the revenue reversals and a higher allocation of overhead costs to Lettings following rightsizing of the sales business. Moving to Slide 14 and an update on the sales business. Sales revenue declined GBP 3.4 million or 13%, reflecting GBP 4 million lower like-for-like revenue and GBP 0.6 million of incremental revenue from the 2026 acquisitions. On a like-for-like basis, revenue was 15% lower, reflecting 11% reduction in used home revenue, broadly in line with the market, a 46% reduction in new homes revenue, reflecting the more subdued new homes market. In total, volumes were 11% lower and revenue per transaction was 1% lower. Excluding the impact of acquisitions in commuter markets, revenue per transaction in core markets in London was 4% higher, reflecting 1% higher average sold prices and 33% growth in high-margin cross-sell and ancillary revenues. Average market share across Foxtons London markets was robust at 4.9%. The adjusted operating loss in sales increased to GBP 4.7 million as lower revenue was partly mitigated by the impact of savings from the proactive cost reduction program. Improving the profitability of sales remains a key priority for us, and we are implementing operational changes, which will better position the business for these lower volume markets, an area Guy will provide more detail on later in the presentation. Moving on to Slide 15 and Financial Services. Revenue in Financial Services was 20% higher at GBP 5.4 million, a strong performance against a weaker sales market environment. Specifically, volumes were 25% higher, reflecting a stronger refinance pipeline, higher estate agency cross-sell rates and improved adviser capacity and productivity. Average transaction was down 4%, reflecting the change in product mix towards refinance activity, partly mitigated by 25% growth in ancillary revenues. Adjusted operating profit growth of 42% reflects strong revenue to profit conversion and incremental revenue delivered at a high margin due to disciplined overhead cost management. Finally, to Slide 16 and cash flow. Net free cash flow generation was GBP 1.4 million. The operating cash to net free cash flow bridge on the left-hand side shows the key items of note. Operating cash before working capital movements was GBP 14.9 million, GBP 4.3 million lower than the prior year due to lower adjusted operating profit and the cash impact of adjusted items. There was a GBP 4.5 million working capital outflow, reflecting the ongoing transition to annual landlord billing across the Lettings portfolio in order to improve competitiveness and landlord retention. We expect the portfolio to be fully transitioned to annual billing by 2027 with an estimated GBP 10 million working capital investment across 2026 and 2027 attributable to the transition. The group paid GBP 1.9 million of corporation tax and made GBP 5.1 million of lease liability repayments in the period. GBP 2 million of CapEx spend primarily relating to internally generated software development and branch and head office fit-out costs. Looking at the opening to closing net cash bridge on the right-hand side, net debt at 30th of June 2026 was GBP 28.4 million compared to GBP 16.9 million at 31st of December. As shown in the table, this reflects the GBP 1.4 million net free cash flow, GBP 0.8 million of interest paid, GBP 8.8 million of acquisition consideration and GBP 3.2 million of total shareholder returns. In the year, we increased the capacity of the RCF to GBP 50 million from GBP 40 million in order to provide greater financial flexibility and to better support both organic and inorganic growth opportunities. The leverage covenant was also increased from 1.75x to 2.25x, again, to provide more financial flexibility, while the interest cover ratio covenant remains at 4x. The RCF matures in June 2028. At period end, the leverage ratio was 1.3x and the net interest cover ratio was 18x, both compliance with the RCF covenants. Following the RCF amendments, leverage guidance has been increased to up to 1.75x with a level dependent on the timing and quantum of future acquisitions. Finally, the interim dividend is unchanged at 0.24p per share. Payment will be made on the 11th of September 2026 to shareholders on the register at close of business on the 7th of August 2026. The shares will be quoted ex dividend on 6th of August 2026. I'll now pass over to Guy for the operational update and outlook for 2026.

On this slide, I will lay out the operational progress we've made in H1 and our focus for the rest of 2026 and beyond. In Lettings, we continue to make good progress with our organic growth strategy, executing against our formula of growing the portfolio and increasing the cross-sell of high-margin services. Revenue before terminations grew, supported by strong growth in the cross-sell of higher-margin services, including a 17% increase in ancillary products and a 10% increase in property management upsell. This performance reflects our focus on building deeper relationships with landlords, delivering best-in-class service and positioning Foxtons as a trusted partner. And we thought the same approach to build-to-rent, delivering growth in both revenue and deal volumes. By combining expert advice with our operational capability to let large complex schemes at scale and pace, we've continued to strengthen our partnerships with institutional clients and win a greater share of their business. We also continue to execute our acquisition strategy, completing 2 platform acquisitions in Milton Keynes and Birmingham. These markets offer attractive Lettings markets, long-term growth potential and consolidation opportunities. The businesses are already benefiting from the capabilities of the Foxtons operating platform with both delivering early portfolio growth. Looking ahead, we have a strong pipeline of bolt-on opportunities across these markets as well as the wider network. We continue to deliver our strategy of building scale in Lettings. Turning now to sales. Following the appointment of James Stevenson as Managing Director towards the end of last year, we completed a detailed review of the business. The objective was simple: to ensure sales is structured for the market that we operate in today, reflecting market volumes, changing customer behavior and expectations and the opportunities created by technology. At the start of the year, we maintained headcount on the expectation that market volumes would recover through 2026. We saw encouraging signs in January and February with buyer activity building throughout the early part of the year. However, by late February, our data increasingly pointed to that growth slowing, and it became clear that a recovery in transaction volumes was unlikely in the near term. We, therefore, acted decisively implementing rightsizing actions that have delivered GBP 3 million of annual savings in the sales business. Alongside these actions, we've continued to modernize the operating model, simplifying processes, reshaping teams and making greater use of technology, data and AI. In many ways, this is about taking the operating model that built London's leading sales business over the last 25 years and evolving it for the next phase of the market. We've looked at every part of the sales operation, simplifying workflows, redesigning teams and making better use of technology, data and AI. Our focus is straightforward, improving productivity and improving the customer experience. Importantly, this is not simply a cost program. It's about improving the quality of the operating model and ensuring that the business is positioned appropriately for today's market. As a result, we're building a stronger platform that can perform well in the current environment whilst remaining well positioned to benefit when transaction volumes recover. Moving now to Financial Services. We delivered another strong period of operational progress. Operational upgrades have supported improved client retention and adviser improved productivity. And we've improved the cross-sell of ancillary products, primarily in protection. And despite the weaker sales market, we've maintained new purchase mortgage volumes, highlighting the impact of improved adviser productivity and deepened connectivity between Financial Services and Foxtons state agency operations. Finally, underpinning all of this is our ongoing focus on productivity and costs. We delivered a total of GBP 4.5 million of annual savings from our proactive cost reduction programs I mentioned, alongside our relocation of our HQ. We continue to invest in automation, AI and data capabilities wherever we see a clear opportunity to improve customer experience, increase productivity and enhance profitability with a clear view on shareholder value delivery. And finally, to Slide 20 and the outlook for the rest of 2026. In Lettings, we expect market conditions to remain supportive with strong tenant demand continuing to outstrip supply. Whilst terminations remain above historical levels, the financial impact has moderated significantly since May. And we expect conditions to continue to stabilize through the second half. More importantly, we're already seeing some of the opportunities the legislation creates. This includes growing demand for Foxtons property management services and build-to-rent services as increasing numbers of landlords turn to Foxtons for advice, compliance expertise and professional management. As a result, we remain confident that RRA will create attractive growth opportunities for the business over the medium term. Turning to sales. Buyer activity continues to be held back by weak consumer confidence and higher borrowing costs. Whilst market conditions remain challenging, we have taken decisive action to reposition the business for today's market and improve profitability. The operational plan underway is focused on improving productivity, enhancing the customer experience and ensuring the business is well positioned for future recovery. Overall, we expect 2026 adjusted operating profit to be in the range of GBP 17 million to GBP 19 million with performance weighted towards the second half. Importantly, group profitability continues to be underpinned by our substantial base of noncyclical and recurring Lettings revenues, giving us confidence in our ability to continue delivering against our growth strategy. That concludes the formal presentation. Thank you all for joining us today. Chris and I look forward to meeting with many of you in the coming weeks. And I'll now pass over to the operator for any questions you may have.

[Operator Instructions] First question from the phone comes from Robert Plant with H2 Radnor.

2 related questions on students. First of all, what is Foxtons exposure to the student market? And secondly, next year, do you think landlords will be able to modify the leases with students to mitigate the impact of the RRA, for example, could they exit the lease at the end of June rather than August as students skipping summer holiday?

Thank you for joining us. Thank you for your question. Our exposure to students is very dependent upon locations, you'd imagine. As you go into some of the more traditional locations like South Kensington, we have a high proportion of those available units being let to students on an ongoing basis. So once you start to peel out zones 2 or 3, then the exposure to students becomes much lower. If we take the entire portfolio across London, we're circa 15% of our units are let entirely to student. When I say entirely, that means that the entire household would be classified as students. So that's where we're at in terms of that. And then in terms of your question around will there be modifications to the terms for students. What we're already seeing is that the -- for this year, for the previous student year where historically, a student would have taken a tenancy from September last year through to September this year, the students have taken the opportunity to be able to give notice in May and June to basically save a month or 2 of rent so that those units instead of becoming available in September, then became available in June or July. Now as you can imagine, the amount of competition for the student units is extremely high. And in a vast number of cases, and in fact, I spent time in South Kensington only a couple of weeks looking at exactly what's happening with this market there. The frequency of the students was exactly the same, albeit that new students coming in for the start of term in September this year, we're now pulling -- having to pull forward taking those units on an earlier date. So we're basically seeing a shift of this 1 year where we had one tranche of students possibly were able to get away with, let's say, a 10-month student period, although this year then being very taken back over by students who were taking their -- the start of their tenancy term rather than starting in September, we're now taking that in June or July.

[Operator Instructions] The next question from the phone comes from Gregory Poulton with Singer Capital Markets.

A few questions from me, please. So firstly, could you talk a bit more about the M&A pipeline and what you're going to expect in terms of the cadence of M&A over the remainder of the financial year? Then second, just in terms of organic growth in Lettings, have you seen any evidence of new landlords coming over as a result of the RRA or is the benefit of that being mainly existing landlords seeking a managed service to give some color on that? And then likewise, on organic growth Lettings, does that have tendency to make organic growth more challenging in terms of there's no natural endpoint for the landlord to review their agreement with their existing Lettings agents?