Greenpanel Industries Limited (GREENPANEL) Earnings Call Transcript
May 8, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Greenpanel Industries Q4 and FY '23 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Rishab Barar from CDR India. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Good day, everyone, and thank you for joining us on Greenpanel Industries Q4 and FY '23 Conference Call. We have with us today Mr. Shobhan Mittal, Managing Director; and Mr. V. Venkatramani, CFO. Before we begin, I would like to state that some statements made in today's discussion may be forward-looking in nature and may involve risks and uncertainties. A detailed statement in this regard is available in the results presentation that was sent to you earlier. I would now like to invite Mr. Shobhan Mittal to begin the proceedings of the call. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Rishab. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss Greenpanel's operating and financial performance for quarter 4, FY '23. MDF sales volume rose by 10%. Export volumes grew by 89%, while domestic volumes fell by 7%. MDF EBITDA margins at 22% were impacted by higher export volumes, steep increase in raw material costs, higher brand spends, primarily on account of IPL, which was skewed towards the last quarter and price cuts taken in exports. Plywood volumes were lower by 17.1% and operating margins of 0.4% were impacted by lower volumes and increase in raw material costs. Post-tax profits for the quarter were lower by 14% at INR 68.93 crores, as compared to INR 80.59 crores in quarter 4, FY '22 due to reasons mentioned above. Net working capital at 17 days have shown a reduction of 6 days quarter-on-quarter. Net debt has reduced by INR 42 crores during the quarter and stands at negative INR 187 crores, as on 31st March 2023. We paid INR 11 crores towards MDF expansion project during quarter 4, aggregating to INR 50 crores during the year to-date. Mr. Venkatramani will now run you through the financials in greater detail, post which we will have a Q&A session.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss the Q4, FY '23 financial performance of Greenpanel Industries. Net sales during Q4 was INR 440.58 crores compared to INR 460.26 crores during the year-on-year period. MDF sales fell by 1% at INR 386.02 crores and contributed 88% of the top line. MDF export volumes grew by 89% at 42,927 cubic meters. Domestic volumes were down by 7% at 94,338 cubic meters, and overall MDF volumes were up by 10% at [ 137,265 ] cubic meters. MDF domestic revenues were INR 311.10 crores, while exports contributed INR 74.90 crores. Domestic realizations were lower by 1% at [ INR 32,978 ] per cubic meter, while export realizations were lower by 21.5% at [ INR 17,450 ] per cubic meter. Blended MDF realizations were lower by 10.2% at [ INR 28,122 ] per cubic meter. Uttarakhand MDF operated at 85% and AP plant operated at 77% with blended capacity utilization at 80% on enhanced capacity of 660,000 cubic meters. Plywood sales had degrowth of 22.6% at INR 54.56 crores. Plywood sales volumes were lower by 17.1% at 2.04 million square meter, and the unit operated at 70% during the quarter. Plywood sales realizations were up by 6.3% at INR 268 per square meter. In Q4, FY '23, gross margin fell by 662 basis points year-on-year at 53.7%. EBITDA margins were down by 1,150 basis points at 19.2%. MDF export realizations were lower by 10% year-on-year due to price cuts in exports. EBITDA stood at INR 84.75 crores due to reasons already mentioned by Mr. Mittal. PAT was lower by 14% due to fall in EBITDA and reflected gains due to deferred tax write-off aggregating to INR 29.36 crores. I'll now update you on the performance details for FY '23. Net sales grew by 12.2% at INR 1,778.55 crores. MDF sales increased by 15.4% at INR 1,534.58 crores, while plywood sales were lower by 4.7% at INR 243.97crores. Gross margins were up by 38 bps at 58.1%. Gross margin in value terms was up by 12.9% at INR 1,032.76 crores. EBITDA margins were lower by 320 basis points at 24.5%. EBITDA in value terms fell by 0.8% at INR 435.87 crores. Post-tax profits were up by 7% at INR 256.51 crores. Overall, MDF sales volumes were up by 2.4% at 506,743 cubic meters with blended capacity utilization of the 2 plants at 78% of enhanced capacity compared to 87% in the year-on-year period. Dispatches for plywood were lower by 7.7% at 8.58 million square meter with capacity utilization at 74% compared to 81% in the corresponding period. Gross debt to equity stands at [ 0.16% ], as on 31st, March 2023 compared to [ 0.30% ], as on 31st, March 2022. Net debt, as on 31st March stood at negative INR 187 crores compared to positive INR 144 crores, as on 31st, March 2022. That concludes my presentation. Please open the floor for the Q&A session. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Harsh Shah from Dalal & Broacha.
A couple of questions from my side. Any update on the representation we have made to levy the duty on the imported MDF? And a related question, if hypothetically, if the duty is levied, what would the difference in pricing go down to?
The matter is still, let's say, under consideration by the various [ ministry ]. The Commerce Ministry has made the recommendation, the Finance Ministry has not yet decided. Cases like ours have actually been taken up also in the Tribunal Court and the Supreme Court, where both the Tribunal and the Supreme Court have upheld that the Finance Ministry will need to take a decision on this, and until such time, provisional assessment of duty should be assessed. However, the same -- because the government machine takes time for implementation, however, the same has not yet been implemented. So it's very difficult for us to give any clarity, as to when and if the duty implementation will happen. With regards to the pricing, I mean, it's clear to say that if duties do come into picture, then, in my opinion, imports will not be a major threat anymore.
And on the plywood division, any sort of guidance you want to give for FY '24 because when I look at the margin, I think it's probably a disappointment in this quarter. So how should we look at for FY '24?
No. So -- there is -- we are restructuring our plywood business model in certain ways, and we are quite confident of double-digit volume growth in the plywood business with margins between 8% to 10% in the current financial year.
And just last one question. I believe in Q2 or Q3, we have seen some sort of slowdown in onboarding distributors in the MDF segment. So how has been the situation? And if you could give in terms of the number of distributors year-on-year, what has been for FY '23 versus FY '22?
What we have done in the last -- because when we have certain distributors and dealers in our network, we also commit a certain geographical region or a number of operating dealers in that area are committed based on the business model. What we did an assessment in the last financial year was assess dealers that we were -- were not very active or not very regular or were not in sync with our business model or business growth strategy, and hence, we decided to sort of discontinue businesses -- business operations with such dealers. And that is the reason why you see a dip in the active dealer numbers that we have because we are now in the process of reappointment of such and expansion of the dealer network, again, it's a replacement exercise.
And if you could give a number, how many distributors we have for the full year FY '23 -- as on FY '23?
About 2,300.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Shrenik Surendra Bachhawat from LIC Mutual Fund.
Sir, I wanted to understand that currently, have you taken any price cuts in MDF segment in domestic to get back certain volumes? And if not, is there any breaking point that [indiscernible] we will have to take a price cut in domestic market, if ADD doesn't come through? And my second question is, is there any specific reasons for plywood volumes being so weak for this quarter?
Sorry, can you repeat the last part of your question? I didn't understand that.
So what -- as our plywood volumes are down 17%, is there any specific reason for weak plywood volumes this quarter?
I'll answer -- the first question with regards to the price cuts in the MDF. No, we have not taken any price cuts in the MDF. And as of now, even if -- even now we are operating in an environment, where there is no protection from imports coming into the -- coming into the country, but we do not intend on taking any price cuts. And there's no defined, that's a breaking point, where we'll have to resort to taking a price cut in the MDF business. So that's definitely not on the cards given the current economic scenario. With regards to the plywood volumes, yes, there was pressure on the market side. We refrained from taking any price cuts and passing on any discounts, which has resulted in this reduction in the plywood volumes, but we are confident of revising this in the coming year. And as mentioned earlier, we're looking at a double-digit volume growth in the plywood segment as well.
Sir, could you give some more details there that how do you get the confidence of double-digit volume growth in FY '24?
Sorry, can you repeat that?
Sir, I'm just asking that, what gives you the confidence about double-digit volume growth in plywood, as the raw material prices continue to increase. And so what are we doing to get a double-digit volume growth, I'm trying to understand?
There is -- we feel that the plywood -- we are very, very positive about our plywood business. It is a business of focus for us. And given our current infrastructure and the distribution network, the fact that the company has spent on establishing a brand, which is important for the plywood industry, we foresee that this would not be a challenge in the coming year.
And is there inflation continuously impacting or inflation has -- starting to -- in the raw materials for plywood, [ how is in recession times ].
No. See, things have stabilized and towards -- to a very slight extent corrected as well.
The next question is from the line of Udit Gajiwala from Yes Securities.
Sir, could you throw some light on the trajectory of the MDF volume growth that you foresee for [indiscernible] and [ saying that ] what further price realizations could come down also [Technical Difficulty]?
Saying the voice is not good at all [ anymore ].
Udit, sorry to interrupt...
I think you mentioned -- what we mentioned was that what kind of volume growth we are looking at for MDF in the current year and whether we are looking at any curtain -- curtail prices, is that correct?
That is right.
Okay. So the MDF volume growth we are looking in between 12% to 15%, and we are quite confident of achieving this in terms of the volumes of MDF. And as discussed in an earlier question as well, we have no plans of any price cuts in the MDF business at this point of time.
So sir, do we -- so I just concluded that your margins could remain between this band of [ 25% to 86% ] or we could see contraction on a full year basis?
Yes. With regards to margins, we are quite confident in the 23% to 25% range.
The next question is from the line of Achal Lohade from JM Financial.
Sir, in terms of the IPL impact, the A&P impact, can you specify what is the extent of impact in the fourth quarter? And when you say 23% to 25% EBITDA margin, what is the A&P spend we are assuming there?
Okay. So IPL impact, so there were actually 3 different spends. One was the IPL impact. We also were doing some branding efforts in the India Australia test series, and we were also sponsoring the Pretoria Capitals. So the combined impact was about INR 7 crores in quarter 4.
And would that be a recurring one? Or this is more like...
Yes. It will be recurring. So I think if you look at brand spends, I think we'll be in the range of about 2.5% for FY '24.
My next question is in terms of the industry capacity, if you could give your perspective on the same in terms of what is the capacity India has as of March '23 and by March '26. What kind of increase are you looking at? And accordingly, what the capacity utilizations could be for players in FY '26 for the industry as a whole?
Okay. We had about 2.3 million cubic meters at the end of FY '22. And I think over the next [ 3 ] years, including FY '23, we'll see approximately 1.15 million cubic meters capacity getting added to the market. But there could be some new capacities coming in from unorganized players, which I'm not aware about.
So this 1.15 is only the organized players addition you [ have ] considered, sir?
Yes. That's correct.
If you could give us a sense in terms of export margin, how would that be in, let's say, 4Q and full year FY '23?
See I don't have it readily available, Achal. I'll come back to you on that.
And just one more question, if I may, with respect to price difference in terms of the thick and thin MDF compared to the imports, as we speak?
Okay. So currently, it would be on a range of about 10% to 20%. So if you look at the landed cost, there would be a difference of about 18% to 20%. But if you look at -- compare the prices, if they were to affect delivery and the customers go down, then probably the range would be somewhere between 10% to 12%.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Sneha Talreja from Nuvama Wealth.
Just wanted to understand on the industry aspect, you mentioned the industry capacity to be 2.3 million cubic meters. What would be the industry size? And what would have been the growth rate in FY '23, if at all, you can you just elaborate that?
Okay. So it was approximately about 1.75 million cubic meters at the end of FY '22. And during the year, we estimate that approximately another 2.25 -- sorry, approximately about 225,000 cubic meters to 250,000 cubic meters would have been added to the market during FY '23.
And in terms of -- I mean, crores, if at all, you can mention even value terms, that will be really helpful?
It's very difficult to mention in value terms because the unorganized does not provide full invoices to its customers. So it's difficult to give a growth in value terms because you have prices ranging from -- if you look at our realizations, our blended realizations would be around 33,000 for the domestic segment. Whereas if you look at some of the competitors, they are probably around [ 24,000 to 25,000 ].
But the volumes include the unorganized part also, right? The one that you mentioned, [ 1.75 ]?
Correct. That's correct.
And is it fair to assume that this particular quarter, the decline that you saw in the domestic market was also because of some amount of imports replacing the domestic volumes, domestic players volume?
See I wouldn't say it's replaced, I would say, rather it took away growth from the organized players. We did lose market share. So if you look at -- if you compare quarter 3 to quarter 4, we didn't lose any volumes. In fact, I think we have achieved about an additional 1,000 cubic meters volumes during Q4, as compared to Q3. So I would say, we could not get the growth that happened during the market in the last quarter.
The next question is from the line of Karan Bhatelia from Asian Markets Securities.
Sir, you mentioned about 12% to 15% volume growth in FY '24. So can we further split it into export growth and domestic growth?
See, I think we are targeting double-digit growth -- sorry, I would say, a low double-digit growth in the domestic segment and more than a 20% growth in the export volumes.
And sir, how much has been the timber prices on a Y-o-Y basis in North and South because all these while I believe the inflation was only in North, but in last 3 months to 4 months, we have seen some escalation in South as well. So any comments over there?
Could you please repeat that question?
Sir on the timber cost escalation in North and South market on a Y-o-Y basis?
On a Y-on-Y basis. So at the end of Q4 -- or rather for Q4, FY '23, timber prices in North were ranging between INR 5.5 per kg to INR 5.6 per kg, whereas a year ago, it was about INR 4.3 per kg to INR 4.4 per kg. For the South, it was about INR 3.8 a kg to INR 3.9 a kg, whereas in Q4 last year, it was around INR 3.10 per kg to INR 3.20 per KG.
And prices are expected to now cool off? Or we'll continue to see some more escalation going ahead?
I don't think we are expecting any immediate cool off in prices. But yes, we expect stability in prices.
The next question is from the line of Darshit from RoboCapital.in.
Actually, I just have one question. So I just need a view on revenue and both EBITDA and PAT margins going forward in the next 2 years, 3 years and also for specifically FY '24, if you can? And also the key driver, which is like presume it is plywood and MDF itself?
Okay. Like we mentioned earlier, we are targeting a 12% to 15% volume growth in the MDF segment. And no, I think at the moment, we are not looking at any price growth, although, we will also endeavor to improve the values by increasing the mix of value-added products. And if you're looking for 3-year guidance, our endeavor would be to have an annual growth rate of about 10% to 15% in the MDF segment. And we expect margins to be stable in the range of 23% to 25% we mentioned earlier. Although, those margins are expected to come under pressure when the new capacity comes into commercial production because of lower capacity utilization expected on the enhanced capacity.
Next question is from the line of Praveen Sahay from Prabhudas Lilladher.
The first one is related to the MDF. In the last 4 quarters, if I look at the utilization level of the plants were quite fluctuating from 74% to 81%. So is there any seasonality on the Q-o-Q basis? And secondly, to the MDF, you are taking capacity expansion by 25%. So how you are looking at export and the domestic mix way forward?
Okay. Like we mentioned earlier, we are targeting a 12% to 15% volume growth in the current year, and it will be our endeavor to have the entire capacity -- current capacity utilized before the new unit comes into commercial production.
And how is the export and the domestic mix you are expecting?
Like mentioned, we are looking at low double-digit growth in the domestic volumes and 20% plus growth in the export volumes.
Okay. And is there a seasonality, sir, in the quarter-on-quarter?
No, there's not really any seasonality in the MDF business because it's all related to the interiors. So climatic conditions do not really impact the business.
And the next one is related to EBITDA per CBM, which has reduced for a quarter. So where you are seeing in the coming years, EBITDA per CBM number?
Okay. So if you look at the current quarter, I think it was to a significant extent also impacted by the adverse mix of domestic exports. So if you look at quarter 3, we had [ 79%, 21% ] share of domestic and exports. While in this quarter, the share was 69% domestic and 31% export. So that had a significant impact on the margins. But going forward, we expect EBITDA per cubic meter to be in the range of 6,500 per cubic meter to 7,500 per cubic meter.
And lastly, sir, on the CapEx number, if you can guide for '24, '25?
Okay. We have spent approximately INR 50 crores in FY '23. And I think probably a similar amount will be spent in FY '25. So I would estimate that most of the balance, approximately about INR 500 crores will be spent in FY '24.
The next question is from the line of Utkarsh Nopany from Haitong Securities.
Sir, my question is on MDF. So if we see like we have enhanced our MDF capacities from [ 1.4 lakh to 6.6 lakh ], I mean, despite that...
Utkarsh, you are not audible. Could you please repeat that question?
Sir, like my question is on MDF segment. So we have increased our MDF capacity from [ 5.4 lakh to 6.6 lakh ] and despite that, our volume has been in the domestic market hovering around [ 90,000 lakh to 1 lakh ] CBM over the past 7 consecutive quarters. And like given a lot of new MDF capacity is likely to come in the domestic market in the current fiscal, what gives us the confidence that we will be able to clock low double-digit kind of a volume growth in FY '24?
Okay. So if you look at it, domestic competition has not really had any impact on our performance. It's more imports, which have impacted our domestic performance. And I think going forward, imports will face challenges because of uncertainty over the imposition of ADD or [indiscernible] CVD, and their buyers would also be turning conservative because they will not like to take on additional risks on account of any additional duties on their account. So I think yes, going forward, domestic manufacturers will get a significant share of future market growth.
Sir, again, I'm coming on to this question. So if we see the annual import in FY '23 will not be more than 2 lakh, 2.5 lakh CBM, whereas in this fiscal, we are expecting significant amount of capacity to get added. So seeing a lot of supply side pressure coming in the domestic market, how we are confident that we can clock volume growth in FY '24?
Okay. So like I mentioned earlier, what is giving additional market share to imports, it's primarily because they are coming at a significantly lower price. But if we look at other domestic players, they are not at the same price, as imports. So new capacities, yes, those new capacities will be operating at low capacities. They will look at a larger share of exports. But they won't really look at gaining market share by cutting prices because I think everyone in the industry is more or less of the view that cutting prices does not give you increased market share because as soon as one cut prices others follow suit within the same day or the next day. So I don't think the increase in domestic capacity will really significantly impact our volumes.
And sir, second question is on the pricing side. So if we see the spread between the domestic and the export MDF realization, it is currently at a record high level in this March quarter. So do you expect the spread to remain at the current level? Or this spread might narrow down going forward?
See, it's come down to some extent in the current quarter. So we are taking new orders at prices, which were slightly higher, as compared to the March quarter. But yes, going forward, this will significantly depend upon how imports are -- whether imports continue to grow or whether imports will decline in the future. Because just like imports are having an impact in India, they are also having an impact on our export markets, most of which are located in the Middle East. So a significant impact -- increase in export realizations will depend on future imports from countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, et cetera.
Next question is from the line of Hrishikesh Bhagat from Kotak Asset Management.
So my first question is when we -- how should we look at this investment in A&P spend. Now if I understand historically, MDF has been largely a B2B or where the product is sold to OEM. So has there been any change in acceptance that we require or in retail level increasing acceptance that will require investment on the A&P spend [indiscernible] or is it just probably spend to create a platform for probably in future if we want to diversify on the retail any product on the B2C side?
No. I think awareness in the market for MDF has definitely increased. People are now aware of what the product is. And now it is no longer, let's say, a commoditized product. And brand -- going forward, we perceive that going forward, a brand would play a very important role in the [indiscernible] or the overall business growth. And we, obviously, in the pricing premium in the market that we will be able to obtain, as opposed to other competition in the unorganized segment. So -- and as a company, as we mentioned earlier as well, we feel that this spend would bring mileage not only on the MDF business, but also on our private business as well. And hence, we were waiting for the right moment and the right opportunity to start this activity. And we saw that IPL would be a good platform to initiate this and we had -- we started this accordingly.
And secondly, when we spoke about probably somewhere around 7% to 10% difference between imported MDF and domestic, this is for which grade of MDF?
So we are primarily talking about the plain MDF, which is a primary product that is being imported into the country. And when I say plain MDF, it is also the basic grade of MDF, which is called the industrial grade. As we mentioned, this difference to be around 10% to 20% depending on the geography of where we are comparing. But it would be primarily for the plain MDF.
Next question is from the line of Nikhil Gada from Abakkus Asset Management.
Sir, my first question is on the MDF margins for the quarter. Can you sort of break it up for us in terms of how much of an impact was because of the mix between exports and domestic? And how much was because of the RM inflation that [ we ] have seen in timber prices?
See if you look at the mix of domestic and exports, like I mentioned, in comparison to Q3, the domestic mix was [ 69% versus 79% ] in Q3. So that had an impact of approximately 250 basis points on the margins. And raw material costs did not have a significant impact on the overall margins. But yes, again, it would be in the range of about 100 basis points to 120 basis points.
And regarding this, I understand in terms of the impact of imports, but because of the RM inflation, do you try to or you're planning to take any price increase in the market to sort of [ arrive just fall ]?
See at the moment, I don't think pricing is an issue. We are not looking at increasing prices currently because we have capacity in hand, which has to be exhausted before the new capacity comes into production. So I think we would primarily be looking at market share gains rather than increase in prices.
And sir, just on this guidance for 24% around -- 23% to 25% EBITDA margins, when you gave the numbers of volume, so basically, the export mix comes to be 25% for FY '24. So this 23% to 25%, is this guidance as in [indiscernible] -- or do you feel that if, let's say, the ADD comes in, this can go further higher?
See, this is keeping into condition the existing market conditions. So if there's any sort of new duties coming in on imports, we would definitely be looking at a significant increase in the domestic volumes.
Sir, I'm talking about margins, sorry.
So yes, increase in domestic volumes would have a favorable impact on the margins.
And sir, my second question is on the plywood part. You mentioned that we are doing some restructuring in the business. Could you sort of give some understanding of what we are trying to achieve over here?
When -- then we say restructuring, basically, there is a -- in the entire sort of distribution network with regards to how the sales team is operating. We are relooking at the entire business model because initially, we were -- we were not very -- let's say, we were not inclined towards any further investment or substantial material growth in this existing capacity that we had. But now we're of the opinion that this is an important business for us. Our aim is to settle the existing capacities, run it at a consistent full capacity for 6 month to 8 months. And then, we are even inclined to look at further opportunities of growth in our existing capacities by way of maybe new investments as well. So hence, we are relooking at the plywood business model in a different light.
And sir, last question, for the time line for the MDF expansion, which was, I assume 2Q FY '25. So it's still the same time line or are there some extension?
Yes. That's very much on track. We would start receiving machineries in towards the middle of the year [indiscernible].
[Technical Difficulty] Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your patience. We have the line for the management reconnected. Sir, you may go ahead.
Sorry, apologies about that. No. So the time line for the new project still stands as initially communicated.
And sir, just last on the value-added mix, if you can highlight this 4Q FY '23 for MDF versus last year?
You're [ wanting ] Q-on-Q?
Q-on-Q and year-over-year would be great, sir?
Okay. So Q-on-Q, the mix was about came -- it was about [ 15%] share in domestic volumes and 62% in value terms. And if we look year-on-year, it was 39% in volume terms and 46% in value terms.
46% in value.
Next question is from the line of Monish Ghodke from HDFC Mutual Fund.
Sir, why are plywood realizations have come down on a Q-on-Q basis when timber prices are going up?
Yes. It was primarily because of a change in product mix. So our volumes had come down in the decorative veneer segment. And decorative veneer realizations are approximately 2.5x price of normal plywood sheet. So that had an impact on the blended realization for plywood.
Okay. And sir, what would be our plywood EBITDA margin for FY '24?
We are targeting 8% to 10% EBITDA margin for FY '24.
And volume growth?
Again, we are targeting a double-digit volume growth in plywood.
Okay. And sir, what is your view on timber prices for FY '24 and '25 for North and South?
When you say -- we are expecting the timber prices to be stable at the current levels. We don't see any major hikes in timber costs in the current financial year.
The next question is from the line of Nikhil Agarwal from VT Capital Markets.
Sir, my question was on the export realizations. They have, again, like fallen down quarter-on-quarter. I believe that is on account of the price cuts you had taken in December. But like are we seeing any bottoming out of the realizations because like we heard there was some rumor that some player has increased prices in the international market? So are we seeing that this is the bottoming out of the realization?
Yes. We already have taken price increases in the export segment ourselves as well. But due to the backlog of orders that we have in our books, we would probably start seeing the effect of that from quarter 2.
And sir, what sort of price hikes have you taken? Can you quantify that?
Between 8% to 10%.
And sir, what currently between the organized and unorganized players, what would be the price differential?
See, it's very difficult to mention the price difference between organized and unorganized players, primarily because some of the unorganized players do not provide a full invoice to their customers. So it ranges between -- anywhere between INR 22,000 to INR 25,000 per cubic meter.
And sir, currently, like last question, what is the demand situation currently? How is it panning out in quarter 1?
Demand is reasonably good. So I think we are guiding for the estimates for the current year on the basis of that.
The next question is from the line of Bhavin Rupani from Investec.
My majority of the questions have been answered. I have just one question related to plywood. So sir, as compared to Q4 last year, EBITDA per unit has declined from [ INR 2.6 ] to INR 1 in the current quarter. Sir, can you tell us some of the reasons behind such a sharp drop from the decline in volumes during the year?
Yes. There were 3 reasons. One, was -- volumes as compared to...
[Technical Difficulty] Ladies and management, thank you for your patience. We have the line for the management reconnected. Sir, you may go ahead.
Yes. So there were 3 reasons for the lower margins year-on-year in the plywood business. First was the fall in volumes. The second was the increase in, sorry, the wood cost. And the third was, we took some inventory losses into account based on the prevailing prices in the domestic market. So all those 3 factors had an impact on the plywood volumes. But the inventory loss is a one-off item. So I don't expect that it will have any impact in future quarters.
Sir, would it be possible to quantify the inventory losses?
It would have an impact of about 4% on the Q4 margins.
The next question is from the line of Rishab Bothra from Anand Rathi.
Yes, sir, I just wanted to have the volumes -- full year volumes for MDF, both export and domestic and the value as well.
Okay. So for the current year, domestic volumes were 385,000 and export volumes were 122,000. And for FY '22, domestic volumes were 373,000 and export volumes were 122,000.
And in value terms?
And in value terms, domestic sales this year were INR 1,287 crores. Export sales was INR 247 crores. Total was INR 1,535 crores. And last year, domestic was INR 1,097 crores, exports INR 232 crores, total was INR 1,329 crores.
Next question is from the line of Kushagra from Old Bridge Capital.
Just 2 questions. One is on the margins in the exports business. So you said you'll come back. But just a right way -- just want some perspective as to the right way to think about it. So last quarter you said you did around INR 18,640 crores -- sorry, INR 18,640 per CBM realizations and you made around INR 1,300 per CBM EBITDA. And now given that the prices have come down by almost INR 1,200 per CBM for the fourth quarter, it would have eaten away a majority of the absolute EBITDA per CBM as well. And hence, margins would be close to breaking even or negative. And is that correct way to think about it? And the resultant question is that, it also becomes your cost for the plain MDF somewhere around INR 17,500 per CBM.
Okay. See, if we look at the export business, you are correct, margins have come down significantly and currently, they are in low-single digits. But there would definitely not be negative because we do not take any orders, which should have a negative impact on the business. And excuse me, what was the second part of your question?
So effectively, if it's in low-single digits or probably 1%, 2% only in this particular quarter, that also kind of shows that INR 17,500 per CBM is your cost for plain MDF broadly at current utilization levels?
No, it would not be -- yes, if you take all the costs. So it's not just raw material or the COGS, it includes the entire cost, including ocean freight costs, clearing and handling expenses and distribution costs. So it covers -- if you cover all the costs, yes, it should be close to that range.
Got it. That's helpful. And then the second question is on -- one clarification and a follow-up on that clarification. One is, you said 12% to 15% growth and which implies -- which is a mix of low-double-digit for the domestic and almost 18%, 20% for the exports. Is that correct?
Yes. I mentioned low-double-digit growth for the domestic business and 20%-plus growth for the export business.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Rajesh Kumar Ravi from HDFC Securities.
My question pertains to, first, could you share what was the B2C sales in Q4 and in FY '23, the MDF?
What's the question, I can't get you?
Sorry. B2C retail sales for your MDF in FY '23 and in Q4, mix?
Okay. So if you look at Q4, it was roughly about 90-10 retail versus OEM. And for the entire year, I'll confirm that later, but I think it would have been approximately between 85% to -- 83% retail and the balance OEM.
Okay. And sir, second, coming to the capacity you mentioned to 225,000, 250,000 CBM got added in FY '23, right? But are you counting the 2, 3 [ mainstream ] Greenply and the Century's capacities in that? Or these are beyond that?
No, that I'm considering in FY '23 to '25. Even the expansion which happened in FY '23, I think came almost towards the end of March. Those I'm considering in the FY -- the 3-year period from FY '23 to '25, when I said 2.3 million, it's up to FY '22.
Correct. Correct. No, no. The additional in FY '23, you mentioned 0.25 million CBM. That is what I was trying to understand, which all capacity.
No. As I was saying that -- I was not commenting on new capacities. I was saying that the volume growth that we had in the market.
And sir, when you're targeting 10% sort of volume growth in the domestic market, given that Greenply new capacity has come up and Century's also added capacities, at least these 2 capacities will be operational for full year. And given that even imports for available will be for the full year versus 4, 5 months last year, what sort of domestic growth number that you're looking at, the industry growth, whereby you can manage a 10% growth?
Yes. We are looking at a 15% growth in domestic volumes.
Number for FY '23, sir? 1.75 million cubic meters you mentioned was the demand in FY '23, right?
I couldn't get your question. Could you please repeat that?
Sorry. FY '23, demand, what was the demand and growth in FY '23?
Okay. That I mentioned was approximately between 225,000 to 250,000 cubic meters.
Okay. I'll take that offline. Lastly, if you could just give us one -- when you say this export realization, sir, for you, this is FOB or CIF realizations that you book?
This is CNS.
Next question is from the line of Koushik Mohan from Ashika Stock Broking.
I just wanted to understand a couple of things in your numbers. Sir, this last 12 months capacity utilizations you have given as 74%. What are you guiding for the coming years? And why was there is a very big dip in the capacity utilization?
See, if you -- there was not really a big dip in capacity utilization. So if you are comparing it with earlier years. So previously, we had a capacity of 540,000 cubic meters, and we added 120,000 cubic meters in FY '22. So at the moment, we are operating you can say 100% of the capacity prior to expansion. It's not really a dip in capacity utilization. We are operating at the old capacity. We have not been able to utilize the additional capacity.
Okay, sir. And how about your guidance for the coming years? Because you have guidance on the revenue side is going to be around -- it will be on the double-digit side and 15% plus. So how about the capacity utilizations?
So assuming we achieve our guidance, so we would be somewhere around 85% to 86%.
85% to 86% quarter. Okay. And sir, average realization per -- how much will be the average realization?
So we are looking at cable realization, say, in the domestic business. And like Mr. Mittal mentioned earlier, we have already seen an 8% to 10% increase in export realizations in the current year. So that should have a small impact on the realizations going forward. So there will be some slight improvement in the realizations, but it will be more or less what we achieved in quarter 4.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of [ Hiten Boricha from Sequent Investments ].
Sir, the first question is on the MDF -- sorry, plywood. So you guided the volume growth of double-digit in the plywood segment. Can you make it more clear? What kind of volume growth is it we are looking at higher side of 18% to 20% or somewhere between 12% to 15%, which you have guided in the MDF segment?
So it's around 10% volume growth.
10%. Okay. And sir, my second question is on the CapEx. We are doing a CapEx of INR 500 crores, which is, I guess, on the -- it is of MDF of 2.31 lakh capacity. So how will our debt look like at the end of the year? And what will be our post capacity after concluding this capacity, what would be our capacity look like post this CapEx?
Okay. We have an existing capacity of 660,000 cubic meters, and we are adding another 230,000 cubic meters. So post expansion, our capacity will be 890,000 cubic meters. And the new capacity is expected to be commissioned in Q2 FY '25.
Okay. And sir, on the debt side?
Excuse me?
On debt side, sir, how will our debt look like by end of this year? So, is it...
We will be taking new debt for the expansion. So it will depend on how shipments progress. But I think as our gross debt would probably be about INR 300-odd crores in the -- at the end of FY '24.
Next question is from the line of Sanjeev Goswami from Fractal Capital.
Sir, I have a couple of questions. First is, if I look at my domestic realization, that is still at 80% premium to the export realization. So first question is, why are we not looking at reducing the prices in the domestic market and capturing the market share and the marketplace before a new capacity has come up rather than competing in the export market and reducing the realizations?
Okay. So cutting prices does not work in the domestic market. It does not help you to gain additional market share because as soon as one player cuts prices, others follow suit immediately. So the cutting prices formula does not work in the domestic market.
Right, sir. So today, the pricing discipline is there because market is dominated by the larger organized player, but you also mentioned there are lots of unorganized players coming up over the next 1 or 2 years. So how do we expect the pricing discipline to stay, especially with these unorganized players coming up?
Okay. There are about 8 to 10 unorganized players in the MDF segment currently. And we do not expect to see too many unorganized players coming into this segment over the next couple of years.
Sir, just a follow-up on this unorganized player market. Can you give us some idea in terms of what is the current CapEx per CBM for putting up a new MDF capacity? And what is the minimum economic size? Just to understand how much is capital the barrier to get into this industry?
Project cost per cubic meter capacity about INR 22,000 cubic meter and what's an economical side?
Well, you see the project cost per unit of capacity installed definitely has increased in the recent years, especially given the Russia-Ukraine war, which has resulted in cost of most raw materials in Europe going up. So it's hard to say what is the, let's say, economical number because the current margin number is where it stands as of today. Most of the plant suppliers are full with orders, backlog of order book is close to 2 to 3 years now. And as a company, we either had to choose to wait for the cost of machinery to come down or let go of growth -- and let go of growth or take a decision. And hence, we've decided to go ahead with the decision. It could have -- the decision can result in an additional investment cost of about 10% to 15% as opposed to had this been done maybe 2 to 3 years ago.
Right. Sir, my question was more from the perspective like we are putting up 225,000 as a new capacity. Can somebody put up smaller capacity like 20,000, 25,000. Is it possible? And machines available for that?
No. That's not -- especially with the type of machinery that we use in MDF, 20,000, 25,000 plants will never be economical. I think even the smallest Chinese plants today, we are talking of capacities maybe of 70,000 to 80,000 cubic meters. But as a company, we are consciously deciding to go with the tried and tested European technology, which we have experienced from the very beginning of our business. And for that, this is a reasonable capacity, smaller for European plants are no longer economical.
Okay. Simply the -- some unorganized may come up and used to put up 70,000 to 80,000 cubic meter kind of capacity, you will still need approximately INR 100 crores kind of capital investment, right?
Yes. Well, I mean, INR 100 crores, I would still say a majority of these unorganized plants are not even new. They're bringing in secondhand machinery.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Ashish Kumar from Infinity Alternatives.
I think for providing a good clarity. From whatever I could make or it seems that the market seems to have bottomed out, and we are looking at a volume growth back again, even the export realizations are going higher. Sir, do you -- but we also have a cash balance of INR 185 crores. How much do you think the cash balance will be put in the new project in the next 12 months from internal accruals?
Okay. So the INR 185 crores you mentioned is the net cash balance. So our gross cash balance was INR 335 crores. So -- and yes, we expect to put approximately INR 300-odd crores in the expansion project. So while we will be taking some debt for the expansion, we expect to be net debt-free in FY '25 when the project is completed.
Sure, sir. No sir, my question was that given the fact that we have such a strong cash flow and even in the -- probably near the bottom of the cycle, we are still making a healthy cash flow of INR 45 crores, INR 50 crores a quarter. Does it make sense to increase either the dividend payout or do a buyback? Or are we planning some other expansion outside of MDF in our business?
See, we are looking at some projects, but we are very early in the initial stages. So I don't think we are looking at any major spends over the next 2 years. But we'll have a real look at our cash flows once the project is completed and then decide on what alternatives it can be deployed profitably.
Sure. But sir, from whatever it seems, it seems that we will have substantial additional cash flow. So I would request you if you can have a deeper look in terms of, not waiting for the project to get done, because the project -- most of the orders of the project, I would presume would have been given already, right?
Yes, that's true. But we don't want to take any risk on the project that we run out of internal accruals and have to go for additional debt for the project. So that's the reason why I mentioned that we'll be taking a look at the cash balance once the project is completed.
[Operator Instructions] Next question is from the line of Arun Baid from ICICI Securities.
Just one question, Shobhan ji to you. We mentioned that the margins would be between 23% to 25% incrementally from next year. And in this quarter, because the mix was adverse, as mentioned, export was higher. Adjusting for that, our margins would be well over 24%, 24.4% to be precise. And now export prices are going up from Q2, as you mentioned. So is this margin guidance a bit conservative? Or are we -- am I missing some piece?
No, given the current market conditions, we are quite confident of the existing margins. Of course, what we have not factored in certain elements, obviously, like if any protective measures against imports come in or if the export prices move up drastically when those would contribute positively towards the margins even more so.
Plus, we have also factored in the additional brand spend that we'll be doing in the current year.
Next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec India.
Just 2 questions. Sir, first is on exports. I think one of the earlier questions indicated that we are hardly making any money on export volumes. Just wanted to understand the thought process, to what threshold you will say no to exports? And rather than that, why not push material into the local markets? I'm looking at some numbers, sir. Any threshold that we will say no for exports, if it's not making money? Or is it more of a volume game? Or how should one understand that?
So it's not just a volume game. Please understand, as Mr. Venkat has mentioned earlier, that we have experienced in the past where we have said that let's take price cuts because margins are comfortable and let's gain market share. But what we have noticed is that, basically all organized players have concurrently taken price cuts, I mean, not even with a gap of more than 2 days. Everyone reacted instantly. And all it does is basically reduce the overall realizations of all the companies, but the volumes of all companies remain similar. So it doesn't -- we've experienced this and have consciously decided not to take such actions. Exports are not making us lose money. And one of the, let's say, the tangible benefits of doing the exports is, it allows us to run our plants at a much higher efficiency, both in terms of operational costs and in terms of capacities. So that also results in higher operating margins for the domestic production because the overall cost of production comes down drastically when the volumes are being produced at higher capacities.
Okay. Sir, I have another question. Sir, Venkat ji earlier in one of the questions did answer that the differential in pricing for imported goods has come down to 10% to 12%. Sir, can you give us some absolute numbers over here if I had to look at, say, Vietnam MDF prices, would it be at $220, $250 plus freight plus import duty? If you could just quantify those numbers just to get a sense on that 10% to 12% differential?
Current scenario prices are somewhere depending on the country, somewhere between $200 to $210 per cubic meter.
Okay. So there has been no increase over the last 3 months?
There has been a 5 to -- no, there has been a $5 to $10 increase. I mean, these have gone down to about $185.
We went past the regulatory filings as well as the annual report. Sir, can you please comment on the sourcing of wood? Do we have any plans to get the sourcing FSC certified anytime in the future?
So we are -- as a company, we are FSC certified. But India, there are 2 types of FSC certification. There's a control wood and there is a chain of custody. Because we are -- our -- majority of our raw material is agroforestry and not natural forest, majority as in all of our raw material is agroforestry. Hence, we can only fall under the control wood specifications. There is very few sources of timber, which are actually FSC certified, which are from the government. So as for the requirement of FSC certified products when we are selling is when we source FSC certified raw material. But that is primarily a function of the demand of FSC certified finished product. But as a company, we are completely compliant with FSC cycle.
[Operator Instructions] The next follow-up question is from the line of Udit Gajiwala from Yes Securities.
Sir, just one clarification. On the import side that we are looking at, without anti-dumping duty with the coming year, what kind of total domestic demand could be catered by imports for the next fiscal, if there is no anti-dumping duty?
Well, we've been seeing a drastic increase in imports. But I think at the current levels with the domestic production capacity is also going up, please do keep in mind that imports are only primarily effective in the coastal areas. North India imports are not such a big threat. And North India is one of the major markets for MDF in [indiscernible]. So I don't foresee imports from the current levels going up in a very drastic manner. If there is no protection coming in, do also keep in mind that international prices are on the rising trend. India is always at the bottom of the ladder when it comes to the preference markets for the foreign producers. So when prices in the international markets are increasing, that would also result in their focus shifting away from India. So I don't foresee a major jump in the import volumes coming into India.
Next follow-up question is from the from the line of Achal Lohade from JM Financial.
Just wanted to check, given now Greenply has also started supplies -- MDF supplies in the market, how do you address the -- if there is any potential confusion in the market or channel partners?
I don't think there is anything to address. I think both companies have very clear identities. And we treat them just like any other competitor. Most of the MDF networks are not single brand dealers or distributors. They have multiple brands in that [ forum ]. And Greenply will operate in the same network, I'm quite sure. But I don't think that will result in any confusion per se. I think both -- at least in the MDF industry, both brands are fairly established and most people are well aware that Greenpanel and Greenply are 2 separate entities. I mean, even today in the MDF -- in the plywood business, although we are a small player, but we are competing in the same segment. And, I mean, there is no confusion per se.
Got it. And in terms of the flooring, if you could quantify what is the mix of flooring in our -- in terms of volume and the value for FY '23?
Okay. For Q4, flooring volume was 1,054 cubic meter, value was INR 7.88 crores, and realization was INR 74,789 per cubic meter. And if you look at all 4 quarters, volume was 3,929 cubic meters and value was INR 27.93 crores.
This is for flooring, right, sir?
Correct.
Got it. And just one question in terms of the imports, have you seen in the last month or 2, March, April, any reduction in terms of the import of value on a month-on-month basis?
Reduction in the import value. No, I'm not aware of -- you mean -- are you talking about volume or value?
Value, imports value, value of total MDF imports in India for the month of March and April. Are they seeing a decline?
No. What I have heard is that, there has been some increase in the price of imports. I haven't heard of any decline in pricing.
Not pricing, sir, value in terms of -- if there is a volume reduction compared to the previous month of January, February.
No, I've not heard of a volume decline also.
Next follow-up question is from the line of Shrenik from LIC Mutual Fund.
Sir, basically, I just want to understand on raw material inflation. As we are seeing that the number of plants and capacities in the wood panel space is increasing for plywood and MDF [indiscernible]. For the plantation of timber, at least there is one year more for the supply to come in a big way. So...
I'm sorry, Shrenik, you're not audible.
Hello. Is it better now?
Yes. Please go ahead.
Sir, basically, I'm trying to understand the raw material inflation bit. As the capacities in the wood panel space are continuously increasing in plywood and MDF space and the supply of timber is expected to increase at least 1 year from now as the plantations will grow. So normal expectation of market is that, the timber inflation will continue. But as we highlighted it at, we expect it to stay at stable at current levels. So I couldn't understand what gives us the confidence that the timber gestation will stable or soften from here?
So it's been relatively stable over Q4 and the month of April. So I think that's what gives us the confidence to say that, yes, there may be a small movement in prices, but we are not expecting any major movement in prices.
No. Sir, I'm talking in terms of next 1 to 2 years, not like for the next quarter, but slightly over the medium term.
Okay. Plantation activities have started, both in Northern and Southern India as all the organized players are aware that raw material is critical for their current and future business plans. So I think, yes, and since these trees are fast-growing species, especially in the MDF segment, they are harvested after a period of 3 years. So we don't expect any major shortfall in the coming years.
Next question is from the line of Ashish Kumar from Infinity Alternatives.
I just wanted to understand what is the current gross margin that we are working on in MDF?
So if you look at FY '23, our gross margin in MDF was 60.9%. And for Q4, it was 56% like already mentioned earlier in the call. Q4, the increase in export volumes had an impact on the gross margins and also the EBITDA margins.
Sure. And this gross margin includes the cost of labor that we use at the factory or does...
No. It's just -- it's only raw material cost.
Sir, if you look at the contribution, what would it be, let's say, in Q4 contribution margin post...
If you can give me a call tomorrow, I'll share the data with you.
Next follow-up question is from Harsh Shah from Dalal & Broacha.
I just wanted to understand, is there any scope of selling value-added products in the export market? As you said that the Middle East is a big market for export, and we are seeing a huge real estate boom also. So is there any scope of selling value-added? And if you could highlight any reason why more of plain MDF is being sold there?
See, the reason for this is -- we are selling some value-added products in the export market, but that is limited to the, let's say, the moisture-resistant grade of plain MDF. The reason why our value-added products like prelaminated MDF does not go to the Middle East is because the business model there is that there are a lot of short-cycle producers who are based in the Middle East, and who are bringing in the raw boards and laminating themselves. And the cost model there is basically, again, like in a very unorganized way. So it does not work out for us to be able to sell prelaminated MDF. We've done certain percentage, small quantities of [indiscernible] sales historically, but it's not a volume business.
Next follow-up question is from the line of Kushagra from Old Bridge Capital.
Just one question on the earlier clarification, which I asked. Just curious on your high-growth expectations from the exports in FY '24. So at one side, just want some perspective because at one side, you are seeing increase in imports, and at the same time, you're preparing for growth in exports. So if we look at Southeast Asian market as a cohort, can you give some perspective on -- as to how trade is going and the difference in the regional focus areas for different players? And also, given that you're building in for higher exports in FY '24 and not expecting significant price increases in the exports as well. What are the driving factors for the margin sustenance or even that higher range of INR 6,500 to INR 7,500 EBITDA per CBM for FY '24?
Sorry, I did not fully understand. What I understand is that, what you're saying is that, why are we planning on doing for a large growth in exports when imports are increasing. Is that your question?
Yes, because if we look at Southeast Asian market as a cohort, there seems to be some sort of a contradiction because India is seeing increase in imports. And at the same time, Greenpanel, which is the largest player in MDF is preparing for growth in exports from India. So just wanting to seek your perspective as to how you think the trade is flowing in the Southeast Asian market as a cohort and the difference in the regional focus -- regional areas for the different players in Southeast Asian market.
Well, I think the reason why we are looking at a growth in exports is because, obviously, domestic capacities are on the increase. Our own capacities are also increasing. And as mentioned earlier, we would like to utilize our full capacity export. Like I said, this may not directly be contributing with its own pricing, the margin may not be sort of visible, but it does help us in improving overall operating margins of the company. And also given the fact that the new plant capacities are coming in, the new investment of our plant is happening, we would have some EPCG obligations from that point. And again, there would be a lull period where which would take time for us to absorb our entire capacity for the domestic market, as we have seen for the Andhra plant. Hence, we would like to keep the export model always ongoing. With regards to the pricing in the exports, as I said, we are always making sure that we are selling at price points where margins -- it is contributing to and giving us a decent enough margin. And at the same time, we refuse orders which are not suitable to us where we are not getting any contribution towards margins on the export orders.
Thank you. I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Thank you, everyone, for participating in this conference call, and we look forward to your presence in future quarters. Thank you very much.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
On behalf of Greenpanel Industries, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.
Read the full transcript via the API
You're viewing the first half of this call. Get the complete Greenpanel Industries Limited transcript - plus 251,000+ transcripts from 12,000+ companies, speaker segments and full-text search - through the EarningsAPI REST API or hosted MCP server.
Get an API key View API docs →For developers and AI pipelines
Programmatic access to Greenpanel Industries Limited earnings transcripts and 251,000+ others is available through the
EarningsAPI REST API and the hosted MCP server.
Quarterly plans from $105 - full transcripts, speaker segments, full-text search,
and the /api/v1/transcripts/recent polling endpoint for ETL pipelines.