Inchcape plc (INCH) Earnings Call Transcript

Good morning, everybody, and welcome to our 2020 full year results. As usual, I'm joined by our CFO, his Gijsbert de Zoeten; and our Head of Investor Relations, Raghav Gupta. It's a great shame that we can't do this in person, but I'm sure that in the coming months, we'll be able to do this face-to-face. Today's presentation will be available on the group website, and a recording of this call will also be uploaded later today. We've set out the agenda on Slide 3. I'll begin by commenting on the group's performance and run through the year's highlights before handing over to Gijsbert, who will cover the financial performance in more detail. I'll then spend some time taking you through the group's strategic priorities and our outlook. We will then open the lines for your questions. On Slide 4, we have summarized the highlights of the year. As we mentioned in this morning's announcement, the full year results came in ahead of the recently upgraded consensus. This is a testament to both the resilience of our business, the strong relationships with our OEM partners and the efforts of everyone across the group. On behalf of the entire Board, I'd like to express my sincere thanks to all our colleagues across the globe for their ongoing dedication and commitment. Against the backdrop of a challenging environment, we have achieved a huge amount. In particular, I would call out the decisive cost action, which has reduced the group's overheads in a very short period of time and contributed to the margin resilience in the second half. The overall financial position has strengthened even further, supported by the highly cash-generative nature of our business model and effective cash flow management. We've actively continued to rebalance our portfolio towards the more attractive distribution segment. During 2020, we added 4 new distribution businesses and/or further acquisition opportunities in the pipeline. We also disposed of several retail businesses, which will reduce our retail revenue by GBP 450 million. This follows last year when we disposed of GBP 800 million of revenue. As the largest independent automotive distributor, operating across 34 markets, one of our USPs is the ability to leverage our global scale. To this end, we have made significant progress with the development of our omnichannel platform. We started 2020 with the platform operating in Melbourne, Australia. But in the second half of the year, started to roll this out to markets in the Americas and now have it in 5 additional markets with more to follow in 2021. In addition, we deployed click and collect capability across several markets, which has seen significant uptake and help support our top line as markets faced restrictions. We also trialed the ability to perform online checkout of after sales, which had a 93% uptake in its first week. Slide 5 shows the 2020 headline KPIs. Revenues for the year was GBP 6.8 billion, which, on an organic basis, represents a decline of 19% versus 2019. Our operating margin came in at 2.4% compared to 4% in 2019. Whilst both the top line and margin results for the year were heavily impacted by the pandemic, performance in the second half was much improved, supported by our decisive cost action and less severe restrictions. Consequently, the group's PBT for the period was GBP 129 million, which is ahead of recently upgraded forecasts and compares to GBP 9 million in the first half of the year. This demonstrates both the sustained recovery in the second half and the resilience in the face of new restrictions. I am very pleased by the free cash flow generation of GBP 177 million, which represents a conversion over the period of 107%. The group's EPS came in at 23.6p, which was essentially all earned in the second half. Finally, we are pleased to announce a return to the dividend list with a proposed dividend of 6.9p. Now let me show you how we navigated COVID in 2020 on Slide 6. The graphic on the left-hand side shows how restrictions impacted our key markets across the globe during 2020. Against the backdrop of varying lockdowns, we adapted our ways of working to ensure our businesses continue to trade. We've done this in a number of ways, some of which I've already mentioned, like click and collect and accelerated rollout of online platforms to a number of markets. We've offered a physically distance delivery service. We've added online payment capability for both vehicles and aftersales and implemented split working to ensure business continuity. This has led to an increased resilience in the business. I am really pleased with what our teams have delivered. And then the improvement in performance we're seeing during periods of restrictions. I'll now hand over to Gijsbert, who will run through the financial performance in more detail.

Thank you, Duncan, and good morning, everyone. Let's start with the headline income statement figures on Slide 8. As Duncan was talking about the full year performance, he made reference to the stronger second half, and this is evident on this slide. While the organic revenue decline was 19% for the year, it improved considerably in the second half, down only 9% to the -- compared to the 29% decline in the first half. The combination of the improved top line performance and overhead savings following our cost restructuring supported a significantly better operating margin in the second half of 3.6%. The decline in operating profit flowed through to group PBT, which fell to GBP 129 million, of which GBP 120 million was generated in the second half. The comparative figures include the contribution from businesses that we have since disposed. And therefore, it's fair to say the underlying performance was indeed stronger. We provided the details of both this and forex on the slide in the appendix. On Slide 9, we show the quarterly organic revenue trend for the year, for the group and for both distribution and retail segments. 2020 was a year with 3 distinct periods. Having made an encouraging start to the year, several of our operations started to be impacted by the pandemic in March. The restrictions were most severe in April, which was a low point of sales. The limitations on our ability to trade is normal is somewhat towards the end of first half. And while some markets face disruption in the second half, overall, we observed an improving trend across our new, used and aftersales revenue streams. In Q4, on an organic basis, revenues fell 9% compared to the 10% decline in Q3. In distribution, the organic decline was 13% compared to 21% in Q3. Top line performance improved sequentially across most regions with Asia, Australasia and the Americas, all posting the highest quarterly growth rate since Q1. Revenue in Europe was held back by further COVID-19-related restrictions in Belgium, Greece, Romania and several other smaller markets. In retail, revenue contracted 2% organically from 5% growth in Q3 as the second lockdown in the U.K. weighed on sales. Now moving to Slide 10. On this slide, I have selected some key metrics showing the much improved position in the second half performance. Starting first with the top line. Revenue during the period was GBP 3.8 billion, which, as mentioned, represents a decline of 9% on an organic basis. Secondly, on margins. I'm pleased that our gross margin in the second half remained stable compared to the equivalent period in the prior year. And was 110 basis points higher than in the first half. Despite the swift cost actions taken on overhead, operating margin fell 60 basis points as we were unable to fully compensate for the impact of lower sales. Moving on to cash. The group generated GBP 182 million of free cash flow in the second half, which represents an excellent cash conversion. We'll come back to this shortly. A combination of this strong cash generation and disposal of nonstrategic retail assets contributed to our year-end net cash position of GBP 266 million. This compares to GBP 103 million at the same time last year. Let's now look at the segmental performance in more detail, starting with distribution on Slide 11. Distribution revenues came in at GBP 3.8 billion, a 23% decline on an organic basis. Operating profit was GBP 140 million, where margins contracted 310 basis points. And while most markets experienced restrictions, the impact varied, our geographical diversification helped support performance. Asia saw the largest absolute decline in both revenue and operating profits. We suffered from a double whammy year with the impact of COVID, particularly in the first half and the deterioration of the Singapore vehicles certificate cycle. And while our operations in Hong Kong remained open throughout, demand remained subdued and was not helped by the closure of the border with China and disruption from the ongoing protest. In spite of the challenges, we retained our triple crown status with Toyota in both Singapore and Hong Kong. In Australasia, having made an encouraging start to the year, our results started to see an impact from COVID in April with a much reduced level of business activity. But it wasn't until Q3 that Australia was hit by severe restrictions. Profitability in the year was weighed down by low volumes, competitive pressures and an unfavorable currency. In Europe, the spread of the virus started to be felt in mid-March, although all impacted markets reopened in May. Some markets did face subsequent restrictions in the fourth quarter, although this was more manageable as we had adapted our practices. In spite of the challenges, we gained market share across a number of markets in the second half. In Americas, closures happened relatively early on as government acted quickly and applied strict curfews. The duration of the lockdowns in our largest markets, Chile and Peru, had the most significant impacts on the recent results. All markets remained open throughout the fourth quarter, and it was the strongest quarter for the region. In Africa, where Ethiopia is the largest contributor, our operations remained open and profitable throughout the year. Now moving to retail on Slide 12. Overall retail revenues came in at GBP 3 billion. This includes the contribution of some retail sites that we sold in the U.K. and Australia. Since the disposals in 2019, we now only have retail operations in the U.K., Russia and Poland. Revenues contracted by 15% on an organic basis during the year. As prolonged shutdowns in both U.K. and Russia in the first half weighted heavily on sales. As I showed earlier, second half performance proved more resilient with solid demand for new and used vehicles as well as after sales services. This was also helped by the improvement in our digital capabilities that Duncan mentioned. In terms of profitability, we saw an improvement in vehicle gross margins in the second half and also the positive impact from our cost restructuring efforts. And while we access government support in the first half, we did not do so in the second half. Operating margin was in line with 2019. I would now like to talk about our cost restructuring program on Slide 13. In July, we talked in detail about our group restructuring plan, which by then was already underway. We had acted quickly and decisively in response to COVID-19 with a plan to reduce headcount, cut third-party expenditure and to rationalize our physical footprint. All of our teams work hard to deliver their share of the savings, and we are encouraged by the speed at which the results were achieved. We have targeted an overhead reduction of GBP 90 million and expected at least 50% would stick when revenue recovers. And I can confirm that we've delivered on both. Over total GBP 70 million of expected restructuring costs, GBP 40 million has been incurred in 2020, with the balance falling into '21. Turning now to Slide 14 with a more detailed review of the income statement. Operating profits were GBP 166 million, down from GBP 373 million in 2019. Our net interest expense fell GBP 10 million to GBP 37 million in 2020 as we carried less inventory, which was driven by the significant improvement of our sales and operational planning or S&OP processes, and we benefited from lower interest rates. In '21, we expect a net interest charge of circa GBP 40 million. Exceptional items amounted to a charge of GBP 257 million. These were largely noncash and the majority related to impairment of goodwill and various sites. As a result of the sharp decline in new car volumes across all markets and as part of our review of goodwill or asset values, we've booked an impairment of GBP 223 million. This is entirely noncash. The majority of the impacts -- impairments taken relates to goodwill and site impairments within the retail segment. With this COVID-19 continue to cause significant disruptions across the Americas in the second half, we've had to take a GBP 37 million impairment associated with our 2018 acquisition of Rudelman. Other exceptional charges amounted to GBP 34 million and are mainly related to restructuring costs. The underlying tax rate for the year was 25.8%, owing to the inability to recognize the tax benefit associated with losses in certain markets. In the midterm, we believe the underlying tax rate for the group will be circa 25%. Our EPS on a pre-exceptional basis was 23.6p, which was all generated in the second half. Now moving on to Slide 15 and cash. Despite the difficult trading conditions, given the highly cash-generative nature of our business model and our effective cash flow management, we have been able to strengthen our overall financial position. While operating profit was more than GBP 200 million lower than 2019, the group still generated GBP 177 million of free cash flow. Compared to the GBP 213 million in the prior year, this represents a reduction of only GBP 36 million. A majority of the offset was attributable to an improvement in working capital. We worked in collaboration with our OEM partners, managing our inventory levels and financing terms and maintained a heightened level of working capital discipline across all markets. This focus resulted in an improvement of debtor days, reducing receivables which were also lower in light of the sales decline. There were also smaller benefits from tight discipline on CapEx and lower outflows for interest and tax payments. The acquisition of Daimler Colombia and several other distribution contracts were GBP 32 million was more than offset by GBP 72 million proceeds from our retail disposals. Resulting in a net inflow of GBP 40 million from M&A activity. The suspension of the share buyback and the subsequent cancellation of the 2019 final dividend also helped to preserve cash. Excluding leases, we ended 2020 with a net cash position of GBP 266 million compared to GBP 103 million net cash at the end of 2019. Turning now to capital allocation on Slide 16. Inchcape is a very cash-generative business and has a track record of disciplined capital allocation over many years. You can expect the same level of rigor and prudence to continue. Our first priority is to invest in the business. And given our relatively asset-light model focused on the higher growth distribution segment, this tends not to be a large call on capital. In recent years, we put more emphasis on the development of our digital capability. At the same time, we have been proactively pruning our existing physical retail footprint. In 2021, we expect net CapEx of around GBP 70 million. The second priority is dividends. In order to preserve cash within the group, we did not pay dividends during 2020 amid the uncertainty caused by COVID. We are conscious of the importance of dividends for our shareholders and are pleased to be returning to the dividend list. We proposed final dividends of 6.9p, takes into account the extraordinary circumstances the business faced in 2020. Going forward, I can confirm our policy of paying dividends equivalent to 40% of earnings. The third pillar is very accretive M&A, which remains a key feature of our policy. And finally, after each of the previous 3 priorities have been considered, we will continue to review the appropriateness of share buybacks. Underpinning all of this is our view that the maximum leverage ratio that we would consider appropriate for the group is 1x EBITDA on a pre-IFRS 16 basis. I'm now on Slide 17, where I will provide some perspectives on what we have seen to date and what we expect going forward. The graphic on the left will look familiar as Duncan showed the same picture. We've added the first quarter here of 2021 to illustrate the disruption we are currently experiencing. It's clear from this that there are a number of markets that are still facing restrictions. And while we are managing much better than we were in the first half of 2020, the restrictions are still having an impact on business performance. The trend for the group in the first weeks of the year was similar to Q4, although we've seen further restrictions in recent weeks. It's important to note that for March, we will start to annualize lockdowns that we faced last year, which will support the growth rates. Now let's have a look at the regions to provide a bit more color. In Asia, as I said earlier, we experienced subdued demand for much of 2020. In Hong Kong, the border with China is still close, creating a headwind for business performance. An opening of the border will be a positive. In Singapore, after lockdowns in the second quarter of last year, the situation is more settled today. The rephasing of vehicle licenses from 2020 to 2021 means that we have reached a trough earlier than expected. And as a result, we expect modest volume growth in '21. In Australia, the stringent lockdowns imposed in the second half were extremely challenging, but the business has rebounded since, and we have made an encouraging start to the year. We've seen some restrictions in recent weeks, although these so far have been short-lived. We have a new management team in place and are fundamentally confident in the prospects, given the product portfolio and also expect a forex tailwind in 2021. The U.K. and several markets in Europe have endured a challenging start to the year with a string of soft lockdowns. Our performance is nevertheless better than it was during lockdowns last year as we are benefiting from adaptations to our practices, as Duncan has already referenced. It's worth noting that in 2020, when restrictions were lifted, we experienced an encouraging bounce back. In the Americas, we've seen a number of markets in post restrictions in recent weeks. And this is having some impact on demand. However, to date, the restrictions are less severe than we saw in 2020 and are generally limited to certain districts. Africa has been relatively resilient to date with limited financial impact from both COVID and the civil unrest in Ethiopia during the final quarter of 2020. We continued to monitor the situation very closely across all our markets, complying with local regulations. The safety of our colleagues and customers remains of paramount importance. Now to sum up, our top line performance was resilient. In spite of restrictions second half revenue was down only 9% versus 2019, supported by our geographical diversification. Gross margins improved sequentially and were stable in the second half. Cash management was very good, driving an excellent free cash flow level. And looking beyond the near-term disruption, we are confident that our geographical exposure offers a long run rate of growth in the mid and long term. And with that, let me hand back to Duncan.

Thank you, Gijsbert. Let's now move to strategic priorities. I'm on Slide 19. When we last spoke, I said Inchcape is a good business with great people and genuinely exciting prospects. I said there were opportunities to build on the foundations laid by my predecessors. And that our focus would be to accelerate our growth in distribution. None of this has changed. In fact, I'm even more excited about our prospects, having conducted a thorough review of the business over the past 6 months with the team. In that time, we have accelerated our digital agenda, engaged with existing and new OEMs and maintained a laser-focused execution. You've already seen some of the fruits of that in our second half performance. Let me now outline the process we've undertaken on Slide 20. With my ability to travel around our markets being limited by the virus, I've had a lot of time to listen, ask questions and absorb some great insights from conversations I've had with a number of our most important stakeholders. This has been a fascinating discovery process for me. We have had time to reflect as a team on those discoveries and to assess the global and industry mega trends that will help shape our future. As part of this process, we have also considered the ambitions of our OEM partners and how we can assist our common goals of more revenue, more profit, more cash flow and higher returns. Finally, we entered the development phase. As part of that, we have defined our purpose, identified the opportunities and agreed a direction. I'd like to take a few minutes to share with you some of the details from the reflection process, starting on Slide 21 with some of the global mega trends that impact our business today. As we reflected, it became apparent to us that as a business with significant exposure to fast growth markets, we are well placed to benefit from a number of these trends. In particular, the higher growth prospects of these markets where Inchcape has been operating for many years and where a growing proportion of the population is economically empowered to purchase their first vehicle. It really fits into our business model and supports our focus on markets with low rates of motorization. There is significant scope for the automotive industry to move the dial on all things related to climate change and responsible business, which is reflected in our purpose. Bringing mobility to the world's communities for today, for tomorrow and for the better. As far as Inchcape is concerned, this goes beyond just selling electric vehicles, it includes how we operate and how we benefit the communities where we invest. Finally, in terms of technology, I have already seen and started to execute on a number of opportunities for the group to leverage technological advancements to be more efficient, to be faster and more compelling. This will help our people, our customers and broader society. Turning to the trends in our industry on Slide 22. We have applied 8 lenses to our world as an automotive distributor. We are focused on consumer expectations, and our retail habits are changing in different industries. We then took a deep look at our industry and considered the disruptive players with a particular focus on advanced markets and how digital and data fits in. We've looked at the economics for distributors and for dealers and how OEMs are having to change quite radically, partially accelerated by COVID, but fundamentally due to the change in drivetrains in our industry. We've also taken a very close look at the case trends, connected vehicles, autonomous, shared mobility and electric. And then finally, we have looked at how we can leverage our global presence by adapting our operating model and at the evolving profit pools beyond where we operate today. I'd like to focus on 2 of these that often arise in our conversations, the shift to electric vehicles and OEMs going direct to consumers. Starting with EVs. We fully embrace the shift towards less polluting vehicles, which we view as inevitable. Our OEM partners are investing a lot here, and we are confident that they will be ready with the right products as regulations tighten in our markets. It is clear that the pace of adoption of alternative drivetrain vehicles will vary across markets with delayed adoption in developing markets where we have significant presence. If battery electric vehicles become the prevailing technology, we would expect some impact on our after sales performance. It is nevertheless a complicated technology requiring specialist technicians, which results in greater loyalty to the manufacturer's dealership, which would act as an offset. In the short term, hybrid vehicles continue to take market share. And given they have 2 drivetrains, this is supportive for after sales performance. Now shifting attention to OEMs going direct to consumers. It is clear from our conversations with our OEM partners that they are looking for us to provide distribution solutions in markets they consider too small with Daimler's sale of its Colombian national sales company, the clearest example of this. Small markets with low but growing rates of motorization is our area of domain expertise and one in which we have succeeded for decades. As a distribution specialist, we have the ability to transform the route to market faster than OEMs, and it is our role to ensure we have an appropriate dealer footprint. With greater focus on making better use of technology and deploying fantastic processes, we expect OEMs will continue to look to us. As we reflected, we asked ourselves the following question. Is there a role for Inchcape, a world-class distributor in the future of mobility? The answer is a resounding, yes. We are left in no doubt. There are plenty of opportunities for an ambitious Inchcape, an Inchcape that can thrive in this new, fast-changing world of mobility. On Slide 23, we have listed a number of reasons why. Distribution is the core of what we do. With distribution of specialty, we are more nimble, faster and more efficient than the OEMs. The vast majority of our investments are distribution specific. And as such, our capability and attraction to OEMs comes from this focus. Our investments have enabled us to develop market leading technology, which is a unique asset and highly appealing for OEMs and let's not forget that we have the experience of helping car brands grow in new markets for decades. The chart on the right shows new car volumes or TIV, in our key distribution markets as well as the largest car retail markets around the world. It is no surprise that OEMs focus their attention on the largest markets, those with more than 1 million sales per annum. That is where they can justify the cost and complexity of their own distribution network. But for OEMs, setting up in new but small markets can be uneconomical and inefficient. This is exactly what we specialize in and where we can add the most value. The reason why the OEMs need us. Slide 24 shows the scale of the growth opportunity. The global vehicle market totaled some GBP 90 million. On an annual basis, around 17 million vehicles are sold in distribution markets, which we define as those markets with less than 1 million vehicles per year. This compares to more than 70 million in retail markets. As the largest independent global automotive distributor, our market share is 1% of the 17 million. The markets in which we operate account for around 30% of global distribution volume. In 2020, we secured new distribution contracts for Daimler and JLR in 2 large markets, Colombia and Poland. In the case of Daimler, they sold us their own national sales company. This was the first for Inchcape, but signals that the opportunity could be even bigger than we show here. On the right-hand side, we show a breakdown of the relative sizes of the distribution markets by region in terms of annual vehicle volumes and the expected growth rate for each. Given the low level of motorization, that is the number of vehicles per capita, the attraction of these developing markets is clear. We want to harness our ambition to make Inchcape the best distribution partner for OEMs to capitalize on the attractive growth opportunities that these markets offer. Moving to Slide 25. As part of our discovery, we have assessed how much money is made in the life cycle of a vehicle. These findings were a significant revelation. Inchcape today is predominantly focused on the initial user phase of a vehicle's life. The subsequent phases are currently underserved by us. What we show here is the split between that initial user, assuming they keep the vehicle for 4 years and how much is captured during the subsequent years of a vehicle's life. We believe we have the opportunity to play both in the initial and subsequent new spaces of a vehicle's life cycle, essentially the first 12 years. In doing so, beyond what we do today, we will grow our market presence. The results of the study show there is much value in the vehicle's life when it is used as when it was brand new. This really highlights how much opportunity there is for us to go after. Let's move to Slide 26. So here's the strategic framework for Inchcape. Let's be crystal clear. Distribution is the beating heart of this group. Everything we do will continue to revolve around our core distribution business. We've shown the 2 key pillars of our strategy at the top. Distribution excellence. This is the key focus of what we do today. Going forward, we are determined to accelerate our transformation, so OEMs find it even more compelling to work with us. Second, we are focused on building out a segment that is underserved by Inchcape today and one where we see significant growth opportunity, that is vehicle life cycle services. Here, the emphasis is on capturing more share from the second and subsequent phase of a vehicle's life. Then you can see the enablers we need to make the strategy come to life. These are people, culture and capabilities, digital, data and analytics, efficient scale operations. We are confident that the successful execution of this strategy will drive growth within our current geographic footprint and even faster expansion into new markets with both new and existing partners. Before I talk about the 2 pillars in a little more detail, I'd like to take a moment to comment on 2 of the enablers. I'll come on to provide more color on digital and data shortly. Firstly, on people, culture and capabilities. Let me start by saying that I've been really impressed by all of the colleagues I've met, mostly virtually since joining in June. I am really clear that it is people that run this business. And it is important that we continue to attract, develop and retain great, diverse talent. We also need to ensure that we foster an even stronger culture of innovation if we are going to be successful in delivering our strategy. Secondly, on efficient scale operations. We have an opportunity to improve the efficiency of our business. One of the steps we are taking is to create global centers of excellence. This is all about getting consistency and reducing costs. The program covers finance, HR and digital marketing. Now moving to the 2 key pillars. On Slide 27, we start with the furthest of the growth pillars, distribution excellence. The group has made solid progress to date. We will now put clear blue water between Inchcape and our competition. Simply put, we intend to be the undisputed leader for distribution. So we are the go-to organization for OEMs. We will achieve this by, first, accelerating our omnichannel solutions to enable superior consumer engagement and data collection for both the vehicle purchase and aftersales. We've improved our rate of deployment in H2, and as I said earlier, but we will now make even faster progress. Improving our capability here will enable us to serve consumers throughout their lifetime. Second, globalizing and deploying our 6 distribution processes, I mentioned earlier the benefit we've seen from deploying the S&OP process into our distribution markets, and we will now execute the same plan for the remaining 5. Finally, digitally enabling our processes and operations to enable fast, real time decision-making and improving our efficiency as a group. These actions will enable Inchcape to grow not only within our current footprint. But also to drive fast expansion in new markets with both existing and new OEM partners. Now turning to Slide 28, the second pillar, vehicle life cycle services. As I said, we have an opportunity to take advantage of the underserved second phase of a vehicle's life. We have studied the market across our global operations and identified 5 potential areas for Inchcape to build out capability. We have narrowed these down to 2 areas, parts and used vehicles. We will leverage our local market knowledge and access to digital capability to create these new businesses. We are reviewing a number of different models, so we can determine which ones to back, so reducing our risk. Let's start with used. We are taking advantage of our physical infrastructure and that of our independent dealer network, coupled with digital technology from Inchcape to enable our network to make inroads into the used car market. This quarter in Greece, we will launch an Inchcape platform, where our dealers can advertise their cars for all Greek consumers to see. When a vehicle is sold, we receive a fee. This solution also enables Inchcape to attach high-margin services to each sales, such as finance and insurance and after sales packages. So a high-margin asset-light solution, which delivers benefit to our dealers, OEM partner and, of course, Inchcape. We're also looking at multi-brand used operations in Europe and Latin America. These are at an initial stage, and it's too early to provide further information, but we will keep you updated on our progress. Now moving to parts. We are convinced that data and digital are key to successful innovation in our industry. And to that end, we are piloting a digital platform with a partner in Asia. The objective is to use this partnership to access the multibillion pound parts market. Again, the model is asset-light and takes advantage of our physical infrastructure. Our aim is for Inchcape to receive a fee on every transaction. I must stress we are at an early stage and running proof-of-concept pilots in 2 of our APAC markets. Now digging into one of our key enablers. Digital, data and analytics. I've already talked about some of our progress made in this area. It is clear that this will be a key enabler for us to achieve our ambition of becoming the #1 choice for OEMs and to capturing more value in a vehicle's life cycle. We have already made progress in a number of areas with COVID-19 catalyzing our acceleration. For example, we've launched our omnichannel platform in all Subaru markets. The focus now is to introduce the omnichannel platform for more OEMs and to increase its functionality. We are going to harness and optimize our digital marketing capability. In terms of how we use our data, we are building out our analytics capability. I've already mentioned the progress we've made with S&OP which uses descriptive and predictive analytics and the results following its rollout are encouraging. We've seen a reduction in both aged and total stock, and this has had a positive impact on profitability. Both with better gross margins and lower interest costs. We've also launched a real time global data analytics platform, which will be instrumental as we increase the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence to automate next best actions. This will enable us to develop insight models, which will provide us with better data on customer repurchase propensity, improve our demand forecasting and after-sales churn prediction. Improving our insights in these areas will be a critical enabler for us to capture more of the value in both the customer and vehicle life cycles. As part of the transformation, we are setting up digital delivery centers or DDCs, which will be operational later this quarter. This is all about increasing the speed at which we deliver functionality into the markets twice as fast. As we look ahead, there is some capability we simply do not have. And it's also not efficient for us to build it. We do, however, have an emerging group of innovation partners that we are working with today and believe that there's an opportunity to harness their expertise across the group and to add additional partners who will be able to accelerate our progress. Fundamentally, with effective and smart use of data, we will become more informed and targeted in our customer interactions. And we'll be able to provide our dealer networks with insightful information. This will drive the right behaviors and get us moving forward fast. I hope this part of the presentation has given you a good understanding of our focus areas as we look ahead and a genuinely exciting growth prospects for this business. To sum up, distribution remains at the core of the business. We see an opportunity to make this growth pillar bigger and better with the effective use of technology. And in vehicle life cycle services, we believe there is significant unrealized potential for us to go after. In short, we are setting out to capture more of the lifetime value of both customers and vehicles. This business has a really exciting future ahead. There's plenty for us to get on with, and we're looking forward to sharing more details on our capital markets event later in the year. Let's now move to the outlook on Slide 31. It is fair to say that the COVID-19 situation remains dynamic across the globe. Performance in the second half was supported by an encouraging bounce back as restrictions eased. And while our January performance was solid, we've recently seen some markets going to lock down and tighten restrictions. And this naturally has impacted our financial performance. As I hope we've made it clear today, we have significantly improved our capability and are better operating in this volatile environment. And we have materially reduced our cost base, which is shown through in our second half results. The group continues to be supported by its geographical diversification, with markets in both the northern and southern hemispheres. That said, the rollout of vaccines varies greatly across the globe, and this will likely affect the speed at which things return to being more normal for the entire group. It is worth noting that based on prevailing FX rates, the translational currency headwind to group profits in 2021 is expected to be GBP 15 million. Absent any severe restrictions, we expect material growth in profits and an improved operating margins. Looking further ahead, we are excited about the long-term future for this business. With distribution at the core, we are focused on becoming the undisputed distributor choice for OEMs. We will do that with greater and more effective use of technology, which will also help us as we strive to capture more of our vehicle's lifetime value. One final slide before we open for questions. On 32, we outlined the investment proposition, with distribution at the heart of what we do, we continue to be focused on growth and cash returns. Given our geographic footprint with exposure to high-growth markets and our diversified revenue streams, the group should deliver GDP plus organic growth. And the highly fragmented nature of distribution means there is significant scope for expansion opportunities. As the largest independent automotive distributor, we have a unique opportunity to leverage our scale and efficiencies. This is something we are doing today with our digital developments. From a financial perspective, besides the attractive top line growth prospects, this business is capital-light with a strong history of delivering healthy free cash flow conversion in the range of 60% to 70%. The solid cash generation and disciplined approach to capital allocation should enable the group to maintain its long track record of delivering attractive shareholder value. Thank you very much for your attention. Gijsbert and I will now be happy to take your questions.

The first question comes from Andrew Nussey.

Couple of questions from me, if I may. First of all, in terms of the life cycle services and unlocking the value there, do you envisage a step-up in terms of investment to realize the objectives, I think, particularly around some of the technology aspects you were alluding to? And as part of that journey, should we really think this as being an organic development within life cycle services? Or will there be M&A opportunities along the way? And secondly, a question around the cost savings. Of the GBP 90 million, could you give a rough feel for how much landed in FY '20 and how much would land in FY '21? And how you can make sure that cost creep doesn't come back into the business as volumes recover?

Very good. Andrew, thank you for your question. I'll take the first question, if you could take the second, please. So Andrew, in terms of vehicle life cycle services, I mean, we do see this as an underserved market for us. And by the way, I have to stress that we're getting encouragement from our OEM partners to enter this market also because, of course, they see the opportunity for, like we do for further parts deployment into that second phase of a vehicle's life. In terms of investment, let me give you my thinking about this as to where we are now. So if we look at the Greece platform that we're putting in place this quarter should launch towards the end of March. It's a platform that we have built with a partner inside Inchcape, investment is pretty low, frankly. So deploying that into the Greek marketplace has a very, very low capital impact and OpEx investment, frankly. So it really fits this business about us looking at this from a distribution lens and saying, let's think about used vehicles from a distribution perspective, let's leverage digital and create a revenue stream for us, which is high margin, high cash generative, supports our dealer network and supports our OEMs. I think crucially in this phase, when you look at used vehicles, is the ability to attach F&I, so finance insurance products and multiyear servicing our after-sales packages really, really suits this high-margin model. And crucially, keeps customers coming back to us because once we attach F&I to those products, they will come back to us. They have to come back to us. That's the way the nature of those products are structured. Also means in that first phase of a vehicle's life in our core distribution business, they were all -- also attaching F&I to that. Now in terms of -- if I look at the part investigation we've been doing, that requires very significant investment, and it's not suitable from an Inchcape perspective to do it. So we're partnering. So we're partnering with a digital platform, which is already substantially built out, and we're piloting that now in 2 markets in Asia Pacific. So in that case, let's use a partner's technology to accelerate our entry into the market, again, keeping our CapEx at a relatively low level. And we think in terms of the CapEx numbers you've got in the information today, that will enable us to enter these markets. So I don't envisage huge amounts of investment. We're doing this in a capital-light way. The other thing I would refer to is our digital delivery centers. So we're establishing those this quarter, 1 in Latin America, 1 in the Philippines. And what we're doing is we are exiting some contracts we've had externally. We're bringing those back in-house, and we're effectively doubling our capability to deliver those -- to deliver that digital functionality, but at about the same cost. So we've been super smart at this. And as you know, we've got a team of people who do actually know how to get this done. What I'm not discounting is, at some point, you might find something where we want to -- we might want to make an acquisition. But our focus is on an organic build-out of these revenue streams. I think there are areas where we absolutely have the right to play, frankly. Gijsbert, I hand over to you for the second question, please.

Yes. Thank you, and good morning, everyone again. So the first message is that the cost savings of GBP 90 million, that program is essentially done. And as we said, we expect GBP 45 million to stick in response to your cost creep, and that is what we can confirm. The sort of cost levels that we saw in the second half were very low also because we had very, very stringent cost management. So when volumes come back, we expect basically GBP 45 million of the GBP 90 million to come back in due course as and when we get back to 2019 levels because we define the GBP 90 million against a pro forma 2019 level.

The next question comes from Georgios Pilakoutas.

First on, again, on life cycle opportunity, please. You suggested the profit split is kind of 50-50 between the initial user and the subsequent user. Can you give a sense for what Inchcape currently split is across its market, i.e., how much of that subsequent use profit pool are you currently tapping into? And where do you think realistically that split gets to? Second one is just to clarify, what this approach is in, let's say, the used car market in Greece. So is this kind of a marketplace, an inventory like marketplace, but your dealers sell predominantly Toyota so you would be a used car Toyota online dealership? And then, I guess, how does that compete again used car dealership, online dealership that has other brands? Just trying to think how that plays out longer term. And then final one is just on the deal pipeline. Have travel restrictions weighed on you doing new deals? Columbia, Daimler was in January of last year. And then you spoke in great detail how you plan to kind of step up the use of the data. Do OEMs recognize this now? Is that kind of forcing them to move right now? Or is that in 12, 24 months when you can show to them, look at how much we've moved ahead of competition.

Okay. Thanks, Georgios. So [indiscernible] kind of feels that these are all aimed at me actually, so you can have a relax for a moment. So let's talk about life cycle in terms of what we think the market size and where we are now. So we've been to this in great detail in every one of our markets. So it's not some generic top-level view of the marketplace. So we've looked at every one of our markets. We -- if you take a look at this from a distribution perspective, we do think there's much profit of a -- as much of a profit pool in the subsequent phases as there are in the first. Now in terms of where we are today, frankly, we don't just do not get enough of the second phase. It varies by market. But if you look at, for instance, used car volumes in our distribution markets, we probably sell 5 new cars for every new used. So that should give you a sense about our opportunity for growth in those subsequent phases of a vehicle's life. Now I'm not giving an outlook or a forecast as to how much we can -- we're going to get by when. But what I would say is we're excited about the opportunity, and we think it's relevant for each one of our markets. Your second question around if this is inventory-light. So the proposition in Greece, and I should give you a little bit more of a view of that. The proposition in Greece is inventory-light. So we're using our third-party network. And as I've said before, we're trying to look at used from a distribution perspective. So how can we enable our independent dealer network to get more access to that second phase and with the lens of how do you use data and digital to enable that. So you're right, we work with a great brand, Toyota in Greece. And the initial phase for us is to get more access to the Toyota used market in Greece. Something we absolutely have a right to go after and where we can enable our third-party dealer network. So first phase for us is deploy the platform, that will get done in March, then get the dealers on the platform for us, then make sure they're listing their vehicles. And then after that, we need to make sure, clearly, we're getting the sales for adjustment. But crucially for me, over time is to make sure that we're attaching finance and insurance to those used vehicles, and we're attaching after-sales products to those vehicles. Real big win for us and our OEM partners because, of course, then that gives us to more of the parts revenue in the second phase of a vehicle's life. We are looking at multi-brand, particularly in the Balkans and Eastern Europe and in Latin America, where this is at an early stage. The technology isn't the difficult part of this. As ever in these markets, it's about sourcing used vehicle, which is the tricky bit. You need a combination of a physical infrastructure as many of the digital players have found out and a digital infrastructure. The great thing about being an Inchcape is we now have both. So we need to be careful about where we deploy these, but we are investigating how we might have a multi-brand proposition. And as I said, initially, we're looking at Eastern Europe, Balkans and Latin America. Now in terms of the deal pipeline and you mentioned travel restrictions, I'd say our ability to complete acquisitions, you've seen that with mini and motor ad where we added mini and many motor add to our operations in Peru, and we added many to our operations in Chile. We know those markets really well. We know the brands, we were able to perform due diligence up close and personal. So we knew exactly what we were getting into. When you get into the bigger deals, we want to make sure that we are very diligent in our due diligence, frankly, to make sure that we absolutely know we're getting good value for us and our shareholders. So that has slowed those deals a little bit. But we continue to pursue them. And obviously, as the markets open up, we think there'll be more opportunities for us. To your point around data and are the OEMs recognizing it? I mean this for me comes back to the distribution excellence point, which is if we're going to be the undisputed distribution partner for our OEMs in all the markets we want to be in, we have to transform the company as we've been evidencing in the last 6 months and as our plan shows going forward. That means brilliant omnichannel deployed into all of our Subaru markets now or actively deploying that into more OEM partners, and we're expanding the functionality right across the value chain about how we engage with consumers right into after sales. I mentioned in some of my remarks before that where we are deploying this digital technology, consumer take is really strong, so I mentioned enabling one of our markets with a pilot we ran about enabling them to check out for after sales online. And that seriously went from 0 on day 1 to 93% of the people who were using -- who were checking out from after sales doing so online. So it shows us consumer demand then. I think when you show that to an OEM partner, so we're able to transform the route to market in that way. That's why we're really excited that we will become the undisputed OEM leader. I hope that works for you in terms of plans. Is that, Georgios?

The next question comes from Sam bland.

I've got 2, please. First question is on this Slide 22. We've got all these sort of different elements of change across the industry. I guess, there's a lot going on, but just like a high-level comment, do you see these net overall as a headwind to the group as maybe some do? Or actually, you think actually, overall, there can actually be an opportunity and a positive for the group across all of them? And the second question is on the retail business. It had a pretty strong second half, just like a little bit more information on what was behind that, maybe it was strong residual values? Or was it something else?

Okay. Thanks, Sam. Gijsbert, if you could take the second one, and I'll take first, please. So I mean, clearly, as we went to -- as I joined this industry. And as you know, I was new to this industry in the middle of the summer when I joined the company. You clearly look at all the changes going on in the world and coming from a technology background, I'm clearly aware of what technology has done to other industries, particularly consumer-facing industries. So we've approached our discovery process with a little bit of a cynical eye. So we treat everything with a degree of skepticism to make sure we've looked at it thoroughly. So we have, as I've said, been through a very thorough process to look at what's going on in the industry. My conclusion is this is not a headwind for Inchcape. This is a tailwind, and I think that's about being a distribution partner for the OEMs. The OEMs are concentrating on their major markets, as I said in my earlier remarks, and on the transition to new drivetrains. It means they need superb distribution partners, and the markets they find more difficult to serve tends to be those in markets of less than 1 million vehicles per annum. This really, really, really suits us. And now we're building out our digital capability more and more. And this isn't just like me saying we will do it in the future. Hopefully, Sam, you can see over the last 6 or 7 months, we've really accelerated that journey. Some of it naturally by COVID. I said COVID was the great accelerator for this industry and for Inchcape. But we have genuinely made progress. And with the opening of our digital delivery centers, I think that progress will come even faster. And like I said, we're aiming to double the rate that we can deploy digital functionality into the market. It means we'll collect more data, become more valuable for our OEM partners. And I get a lot of questions about EV, of course, from your side of the house and from our investors. I think EV for us also is a positive. We absolutely embrace the technology, many of our markets will be moving to hybrid technology first, really suits our OEM partners. But crucially, our OEM partners we work with today are investing heavily and making real progress. So I think EV is a tailwind. I think all the changes in the industry are a tailwind for Inchcape. So as you can probably tell, I'm pretty optimistic, but it's based upon the best part of 7 months of a detailed look at all these trends that are going on in the marketplace. Gijsbert, I'll hand over to you now for the second, please?