INFICON Holding AG (IFCN) Earnings Call Transcript
October 27, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
By my watch, it's 9:30 on this beautiful sunny autumn day. So good morning, and welcome, everyone. My name is Bernhard Schweizer, Investor Relations contact at INFICON. I have the pleasure of hosting this online Microsoft Teams webcast. Thank you for attending INFICON's conference on its third quarter 2026 results. With us today are Oliver Wyrsch, CEO of INFICON; and Dimitrij Lisak, CFO of INFICON. The management team will first present the results and then take your questions. During management's prepared remarks, you are kindly asked to turn your microphones and cameras off. You should have received by now the press release on the Q3 2026 results, together with the link to the accompanying presentation for this conference. All documents are available for download in the Investors section of the INFICON website at www.inficon.com. During the Q&A session, you can ask questions either in writing using the chat function in MS Teams or you can add yourself to the queue of people wanting to ask questions orally by clicking on the raise my hand icon. I would also like to inform you that we are recording this web conference to archive the audio file later on the INFICON website. The oral statements made by INFICON during this MS Teams session may contain forward-looking statements that do not relate solely to historical or current facts. These forward-looking statements are based on the current plans and expectations of our management and are subject to several uncertainties and risks that could significantly affect our current plans and expectations as well as future results of operations and financial condition. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Having said all that, I would now like to hand over to Oliver Wyrsch. Oliver, please.
Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our Q3 2026 earnings release conference. We have the usual agenda. First, I will tell you a couple of key messages, figures of the quarter, the target markets and then the full year expectation. And after me, our CFO, Dimitrij Lisak, will tell you more details on the financials. Let's jump right in. Bernhard is right. It is a wonderful morning, but it is also really an honor to show you our outstanding report -- our outstanding reported results for Q3 2026. We have delivered a record third quarter regarding sales and orders with book-to-bill ratio far above 1, strong profitability increase, reflecting the completed efficiency measures and the positive volume impact. If you look at the Q3 numbers, specifically, the sales reached USD 233 million, which is up an outstanding 42% year-on-year and 18%...
Please everyone turn your microphones off. Thank you. Oliver, you are on mute.
Okay. Hopefully, it works again. Can you hear me, Bernhard?
Yes, we do. Go ahead.
Very good. All right. I repeat. Sales record Q3 sales of USD 233 million, up 42% year-on-year and 18% versus Q2 with strong growth across all regions and all target markets. What it also shows is that we are successfully ramping our capacity across our operations, moving every quarter up in our capacity to deliver products. If you look at the order intake, they remained strong, further exceeding the record level of Q2 by a significant step-up with a book-to-bill ratio far above 1. Semiconductor surged by 75% year-on-year and grew 26% compared with Q2 2026 with a market demand at very high levels and the ramp in full swing and ongoing for this year and the years to come. Advanced industrial markets, General Vacuum continued the momentum, growing 13% year-on-year, 9% quarter-on-quarter. RAC Auto sales grew 11% year-on-year, 2% quarter-on-quarter. Security and Energy increased 29% year-on-year, improving 50% versus Q2. If you look at the operating results, gross margin is at 50%. That's 3.5 percentage points up versus previous quarter and 7.1 percentage points versus Q3 2025. That is more than offsetting the increasing cost and inflation impact. If you look at operating income, up significantly to nearly USD 60 million, plus 160% year-on-year, a margin of 25.5%. In comparison to Q3 last year of 14%. Remember, that was in the middle of our reconfiguration, the trade war impact that affected us for a couple of quarters. Q2 comparison, we were at 21.3%. The step-up is -- for Q3 is partially affected by favorable one-off effects of around 2 percentage points. We report also a robust operating cash flow of USD 78 million. INFICON continues to expand its global operations rapidly. The global supply chain remains under pressure. There is in some areas, even increasing pressure, but the implemented measures have proven resilient through recent disruptions. We continue to invest in leading-edge R&D. In many ways, innovation is further speeding up together with the semiconductor ramp and also the other advanced industrial markets that see a speed up. And at the other side, as mentioned before, we're expanding our production capacity across our operations very successfully and we'll expect approximately USD 35 million and a bit above of CapEx for the full year. If you look at the worldwide markets and sales, we report a strong quarter and growth in all regions year-on-year. Particular noteworthy Asia Pacific, plus 50%, then exceptional, especially also China, plus 72% and Americas also up 34%, Europe 11%. We then look at the end markets, Semiconductors, we are in a leading position. We showed strong multiyear performance over the past years, as you can see, with nearly 12% CAGR, but also now accelerate fast in a broad-based ramp and with the increasing use of our sensors and software. The performance, record sales with a strong growth of plus 75% compared to Q3 2025 and a sequential growth of 26%. Again, you see here, we are able to ramp. We are prepared for that. We continue to ramp as orders even more increase, they have increased significantly and shown the steepest year-on-year increase of all times. #1 position across our product lines. Then for market expectation this year is clear, strong growth, and that will go into next year as well with this industry ramp in full swing. It's driven by leading-edge logic, by high bandwidth memory and much more technologies, also down to IoT and power chips around the data center build-out. The investments in leading edge nodes and advanced chip design continues though with intensity and that's also why the increased use of sensor and software is shown in these numbers and also is a continuing dynamic from the past going into the future. We have a strong R&D pipeline at INFICON, working very closely with our top leading-edge customers on the next generation, the one after the next generation with a number of product lines that continuously are upgraded, APX, CDG, UL product lines, many more. With that, I jump over to Advanced Industrial End Markets. It's a number of attractive tech markets with strong momentum and synergies with semiconductors. Many are positively affected also by the data center build-out, energy, big science, space, HVAC. So if we jump into these 3 target markets here, RAC Auto grew CAGR the last years over 11%. Q3 year-on-year, again, 11%, remains very strong also in a market with some headwinds. Some growth is driven by batteries for storage and for EVs. Definitely, the new refrigerants is an ongoing driver. Service handheld expansion is a good driver. And then the new HVAC, that's a coming segment that obviously has a lot of momentum for HVAC for data centers. Also interesting new product development in all these end markets as well. An example here is the new leak detection system, Arnova that works with Air and Argon, something that hasn't existed before. If you look at General Vacuum, strong growth also over the past years of over 10%. Quarter 3 year-on-year, plus 13% growth. We see growth also for the rest of the year as well here. Sales, plus 13% year-on-year, plus 9% quarter-on-quarter and a strong order intake across all regions. Also here as well as with RAC Auto and semiconductor, we are #1 player in the market regarding technology and market share. If you then jump into Security and Energy, smallest end market. This is a bit more slower, but very positive dynamics as well, specifically if you look midterm, sales grew 29% year-on-year, plus 50% quarter-on-quarter. It shows its chunkiness of this business, which relies on a lot of larger government programs. Also here, we remain a #1 position in the market regarding market share and technology. With that, I jump to the expectations 2026. INFICON raises full year 2026 guidance. Sales and orders are at a very high level across key markets, most notably, semiconductor ramp is in full swing. And ongoing, we are confident, therefore, and move the guidance up. We see some risks. We see also some potential for disruptions increasing in the supply chain. I think we were able to ramp up our capacity, also manage the supply chain very well, while it is under pressure. We see, at the same time, a higher risk for disruptions and we see also a higher risk for cost, in particular, for logistics and certain materials. With that, we taken into account, we raise our guidance to sales of USD 820 million to USD 850 million from previously USD 750 million to USD 780 million and operating income margin from 19% to 20% to 21% to 22%. To conclude, if you want to stay current on everything that happens at INFICON, check out the various channels where we share news, be it new products, be it our science collaboration for space or volcano science or also on data centers. And with that, I would like to hand over to Dimitrij Lisak, our CFO, who can give you a bit more details on the financials.
Thank you, Oliver. Good morning, everyone, online. So I will give you more color on the quarterly financials, the guidance and the outlook on the corporate. Q3 was another record quarter on sales, orders and strong profitability, while we continue to invest into expanding our production capacities and our innovation capabilities. Order intake remained strong and further exceeded the record level of Q2 with a book-to-bill well above 1. Sales ended at USD 233.3 million, up 17.7% versus previous quarter and 42.4% versus Q3 prior year. Gross margin ended at 50.1%, which is sequentially an improvement of 3.5 percentage points and an increase of 7.1% versus prior year. We generated an operating income of USD 59.5 million, corresponding to margin of 25.5% compared with 21.3% in Q2 and 14% in Q3 2025. As mentioned before, this quarter last year was heavily affected by the trade war with the 14%. This result reflects the strong efficiency gains we could generate in the last quarters as well as the positive volume impact, more than offsetting the increasing impact from cost inflation reeling. This result also includes some favorable one-off effects in the range of 2 percentage points of operating income versus net sales. The equity ratio remains strong at 64.6%, underlining the resilience of our business and both operating cash flow improving to USD 77.6 million and net cash increasing to USD 138.9 million remains strong. CapEx ended at USD 12.8 million, which is an increase of USD 6.7 million versus prior year. This reflects the ongoing ramp-up in capacity across our operations and we expect the full year CapEx to exceed USD 35 million. On the sales side, we actually see broad-based growth across all regions and all markets, specifically to highlight is the growth in China with 71.7% and Asia Pacific with 49.8% but also America showing a strong increase with 34.3%, followed by Europe with 10.8%. Semiconductors delivered the strongest growth with 74.7% year-over-year, while all our 3 Advanced Industrial Markets grew double digit year-over-year, specifically General Vacuum increasing by 13.3% RAC Auto growing by 11% and Security and Energy growing again with 29.4% year-over-year. As a side note related to streamlining our reporting following the continuous improvement of the way we report, we -- as you recall, and earlier this year, we provide more transparency on Asia by separating China and Asia Pacific into 2 regions. We will further simplify our end market reporting from 2027 onwards to 2 end markets, step to further and better reflect the dynamics of our business. More details to follow in the upcoming [ earnings results ]. The gross profit showed a strong improvement by 66% and gross margin of 50.1%, up by 7.1% and 3.5% sequentially. This is primarily driven by efficiency gains, higher volumes and certain one-offs of roughly 2%, as mentioned before, which is a combination of multiple factors. At the same time, the effects of cost inflation are rising, especially among freight charges, freight charges specifically have become more pronounced. R&D costs increased by 13.1%, reflecting continuous investment in innovation capabilities and future technologies and now representing 7.2% net sales year-to-date. SG&A costs rose 23.5% year-over-year, mainly reflecting further investments into our organization as we ramp, including the buildup of application engineering and our service organization, also personnel-related costs and upgrades to our systems. With this, the operating income increased significantly by 160.3% with the margin up by 11.6%, including the mentioned positive one-off effects. The income tax increased to USD 13.7 million with a slightly lower tax rate of 22.5% compared with 24.6% in Q3 last year. And the net income increased by 173.5% year-over-year with margin improving to 20.3%, mainly driven by the higher operating income. The balance sheet and the financial position further strengthened. Working capital ended at USD 251.6 million, which represents 27% of net sales compared with 34.2% in Q3 last year. The key driver behind this are improved inventory turns, 2.7 this year versus 2.4 last year as well as disciplined accounts receivables management with a DSO of around 50 days. Operating cash flow rose to USD 77.6 million, mainly driven by the higher net income. We are raising the full year 2026 guidance for both sales and operating income. This is based on strong order intake and a pronounced Semiconductor ramp, but also strong growth in our 3 Advanced Industrial Markets. At the same time, the risk of global supply chain disruption and cost inflation remains elevated, which we continue to manage closely and proactively. The new guidance is therefore USD 820 million to USD 850 million and an operating income margin of 21% to 22%. So these were the details on the numbers. Briefly on the next events on the corporate calendar. Today is the Q3 analyst media conference. We will have an analyst visit on November 19, 2026, and we will present the Q4 and full year '26 results. With this, I would like to invite you for the Q&A session and ask questions.
Laura Bucher has the first question for you.
Good results. Congratulations. A couple of questions from my side. So first, as always, on your guidance. I mean, looking at Q4, I mean, my issue is really more on the bottom range of the guidance. I mean that would imply Q4 top line USD 208 million and also on the EBIT, 19.7% on the EBIT margin. So I mean, unless you're -- on the top line fine, you mentioned the supply chain risk so maybe you can't deliver on time and we also have the holiday season. But on the margin, I mean, unless you're budgeting for really an outsized increase in raw material and/or freight rates, can you comment what kind of scenario for you to land on a 19% margin in Q3 versus your adjusted 23% in Q3 and already Q2 above 21%. So what are you seeing there? And then I'll take the second one after the answer.
All right. Sure. I will start and maybe, Dimitrij, you want to chime in with some specifics after. I mean, just the big picture, obviously, the sales cannot be totally disconnected from the operating income. So we -- maybe a few notes on that. I might be anyway a question after. So Q3 is very strong. It is a little bit higher than maybe we have expected. That is, of course, timing of when capacity comes online, when supply chain ramps up. And we have to say also that a little bit of revenue came from Q2 into Q3 and maybe a little bit revenue that belongs into Q4 was also delivered in Q3 because of the Golden Week in China. And that's why we have a little bit larger range of USD 30 million, which, of course, then affects the point that you were asking about regarding the operating income. On that end, next to the sales variance, which this is not part of the ramp. The ramp is working, but this is about timing of certain pieces of it, projects and capacity coming online. But we have also seen a number of disruptions and the number of disruptions have increased in the supply chain. That is outside of our control and parts, right? That is where we have built up second suppliers, where we have strengthened our supply chain. But nonetheless, through geopolitical factors, there is disruptions that really need quite some intensive countermeasures. So far, as you can see, we have -- our system has proved to be resilient. But we also have seen cost inflation there in freight, in particular logistics, but also in some materials. So this uncertainty just influences a bit of what we see can happen in Q4. I don't think this is necessarily too relevant if you look longer term. I think we've proven our ability to really go beyond the 20% EBIT. If you remember, we had this couple of quarters because of the trade war that affected us. And we have through [ Veeco ] integration, through efficiency measures really shown that we navigated through that successfully. And now as we go into the next growth phase can also scale up operations and with that lift EBIT. One more thing is important, a special effect is in Q3. I mentioned it before, but just to be clear that everybody hears it, we have favorable one-off effects in Q3 on the bottom line of 2 percentage points. That's the various different effects that we will not expect to see again. So that all put together is what led us to this guidance. Maybe you want to add some.
And maybe to complement on the last point you mentioned, basically, if you take the Q3 operating income number and discount is roughly 2% that you mentioned, and then you work through the midpoint, that's roughly the level we would also expect to continue. So there's no reason for us to significantly decrease, but you need to consider if you extrapolate to the first part of your question is, a, that the sales were particularly strong in Q3; and b, we have this onetime effect that you need to discount if you extrapolate.
And of course, you know that probably but just to make sure for everybody, we had a weak Q1, so that was affected by the trade war effects, right? So that drags the whole year down and you look at the full year guidance. I don't think this is relevant for the future anymore. But of course, it's stays with 2026. I hope that helps, Laura.
That does help. And then just one more on the capacity utilization. And you also mentioned in the previous calls that you had some plans where you could increase your nameplate capacity. So we heard from some competitors and also some of your clients that they will accelerate capacity increase. So just wondering where you see INFICON and what could that mean for your CapEx in '27, '28?
Yes. I think CapEx, Dimitrij can comment a little bit on our general CapEx strategy. I think it's in the usual range when we ramp 5%, 6% of sales. But -- and it will be the same as probably next year. Obviously, we spend it before and then deliver the sales. So there's a time lag in it. I mean if you look at the numbers, we are 40% up year-on-year and that is a sustainable level, right? So that already entails a lot of capacity expansion. So what I can tell you is we're basically all the time working on capacity expansion projects all around the globe wherever it's needed. Specifically in some of the semiconductor end market heavy product lines up 70%, that needs a bit more work. And I think also when we look how the order entry exploded and is further increasing extremely fast for next year, visibility there for next year. We're thinking it's going beyond that, but you need to look at next year also for expansion projects. So we will just have to go and continue do expansion projects at the pace we're already doing for 12 to 18 months. Obviously, we couldn't deliver some of it last year, right, because the whole ramp was delayed into this year, but we have been actually in this mode for a while, meaning continuous expansion.
Right. But with the -- let's put it this way, with the existing space that you have, right, you cannot indefinitely keep increasing 40% capacity, right, before you need to do an outsized. When I say capacity expansion, I mean, real capacity expansion, additional plants and additional buildings in space. So this is really what I mean.
Yes. Okay. Maybe for clarity, like most of you that visited us just know the Balzers location, but I want to stress that we are not a centralized organization like that. We have 11 centers of competence. Centers of competence is R&D and manufacturing. So there is Finland, there is Syracuse, there is Colorado, Syracuse, New York. There's Malaysia, there's Shanghai, there's Guangzhou. We ramp in all places. And it's a cascade, some is just filling up the space, some is adding space. So we actually have in numerous locations more space. We still have space next year to ramp even in Balzers. We do again the same thing as we did in the last ramp. We remove the office people, rent some more space for that and then have more production space. But at the same time, as you know, also here and in other places, we acquired extra land or extra space. And we have also in Malaysia just recently added a significant chunk of building, and we do this continuously. The same happens in China just now. That's what I mean with the constant project. Again, some are just tools, some are just starting tools and some is really additional space. So I don't see there is a kind of a ceiling. That's not how we look at things. We are in a continuous ramp discussion for all these locations, wherever it's relevant, obviously, right? Not all product lines are at the same pace or need to ramp the same speed depending also on the geography.
You had some numbers in the end. Now by end September, we actually crossed the full year CapEx level of USD 25 million. So we're actually above that already and we gave the outlook that we probably crossed USD 35 million. So it's also materializing in the numbers what Oliver just mentioned across both clean room expansion, tooling and other CapEx investments.
So it's actually a significant step-up, year-on-year comparison.
The next question comes from Martin Comtesse.
Congrats on the numbers, and very encouraging here. Just 3 questions, if I may, take them one by one. The first one, I'm still a bit in the dark here when it comes to 2 percentage point one-offs. You did mention the various elements in it. Has it anything to do with tariff reimbursements at this point? And whilst we're at this, could you maybe elaborate a little bit because I think at the last chat we had, you did mention tariff reimbursements are being negotiated or applied for. How we should think about additional one-offs coming from tariffs in the coming quarters?
So maybe first on the composition of this 2%. Basically, as I mentioned, this is a combination of multiple factors. One of them are actually tariff reimbursements. We mentioned it in the last earnings release call that as most companies we filed for reimbursements for certain periods and a certain part of it was credited. Now this is one part of the 2 percentage points. The other part is actually an effect from streamlining our leak detection portfolio in the food packaging area. So -- and there are certain other minor effects. So that's a combination of factors. And going forward, on the tariffs, we probably there will be something here and there, but we don't expect anything major to come in the next quarters from this. So we filed our claims and there are certain claims that have been approved and that's now included in one-off effect.
Yes, we shouldn't forget that there is other customer claims, right? So this is kind of this -- it's a bit non-value-add transactions back and forth. I would just -- the point important from Dimitrij here is that it's really a Q3 effect that you can really see. I wouldn't see that for future. I would red circle this part, this 2 percentage points.
Very clear. That's helpful. Is there -- can you quantify the tariff impact? Was it like 50 basis points, 100 basis points? Or do you not want to touch on that?
Yes. We would like to keep it with this level of detail with the 2 percentage points.
Okay. Understood. And maybe the second question is on Q4 sales. I think -- you already mentioned that there's been some pull forward, but also some delays from Q2. Do I understand that correctly that if -- let's just assume supply chains remain resilient and you keep getting your supply as you need, that sales could be sequentially lower in the fourth quarter versus Q3?
I think if everything works out fine, there is upside risk for sure, quite a bit. But we have to say that the disruptions have intensified. So there's more and more tiger teams running around chasing the oldest parts. It's not the simplest one or the most logic one that you maybe have managed the closest, right? So I think that is probably the main reason why we're a little bit cautious there on the risk. But I mean, sure, it's relevant for the full year and the Q4. But if you look a little bit longer term, this is really just maybe a bump or not a bump at all and a very positive thing. So I think the guidance entails both, right? The lower end, we really expect one of the disruptions become larger and then it delays into next year. No order will be lost. Nothing will be missed. This is about what falls into the bucket of the Q4 really.
Maybe adjacent to that, can you also help us get a better feel because Semiconductor has been growing so fast. About the book-to-bill ratio just in Semiconductor specifically. Is that closer to 2? Is it closer to 1.5? And what type of visibility does it give you into next year?
Yes. I mean we don't want to disclose further specifics on the book-to-bill ratio. But if we say far above 1, that should be a clear indication. And it has also accelerated more than the sales. So there is plenty of orders to go around to have a spectacular year next year. That's what I can say. Obviously, we don't guide yet. We'll guide as soon as we give you full year numbers the next time we meet. And then we'll -- I'm pretty confident this will be a very exciting year next year. It's also accelerating, which is it's a bit hard to say how much more is coming. We have been in the state now for 6 months, where every ceiling that we thought there is a little bit maybe slowdown or that's not -- we went right through it. So for now, I wouldn't expect any slowdown at all. And also when we talk about projections with customers, the only slowdown there could be is the supply chain cannot keep up in certain places, in certain bottlenecks, and it will slow down the whole industry a little bit, but that will not take away from the entire volume or what the whole data center build-out in particular, tries to achieve. It will just a little bit stretch it out over the quarters. Our strategy though is to not be those that slow down the industry. And so far, we've been in the front part of the curve, let's say, in terms of delivery times and so on. I think that's where you want to stay. But I would expect next year going to get a little bit more bumpy as some reserves are used up and so on in the industry and all the supply chain that supports the industry. So we will grow fast, but there's also going to be some things that might not come as fast as they should.
Do you think there's been any premature orders like forward orders because people are worried about that supply situation next year?
Yes. I think there is some ordering a little bit earlier, but the ramp of orders is still extraordinary. So I would say, yes, but not so material that it will take away from the actual acceleration of the ramp.
Next question come from Michael Foeth.
Just to start with just one clarification on the last point there in terms of your order patterns. Are you seeing any extension of your lead times in any significant way? Normally, I think your orders are rather short term. So any changes to the order patterns would be the first question. The second one is on China. Can you give some more color on why you saw such strong growth in China versus other regions? Is it just mix or any other specific factors that you can highlight? And then I would have one on your market position, if that has changed in vacuum gauges at all already at this stage with OEMs.
Yes. Okay. Order patterns they're pretty consistent and very strong also through the seasonal slower periods, which is really exceptional. I think Q3, in particular, first half of Q3 is always slow, right? We start slow with orders, we start slow with sales and then it's really a little bit of a big bang in the second half. It's been impressive how this just powers through. I think also as we have versus the last sample, maybe the one before, really strengthened our strategic partnership with customers. We also talk much more on an eye level than we have before, also through our innovation collaborations. So we have really more of a long-term planning together. So there's not so much surprise, as I want to say. It's 12, 18 months to look out, sure. I would say from China, there's maybe a little bit more surprises sometimes in terms of how fast ramps happen and then they are communicated. But also there, I think as everybody professionalizes, it's getting easier to do that. I hope that answers your question, Michael. And in terms of -- and it's broad-based, I want to mention maybe that was also a question from Martin before. Clearly, it's not only semiconductor, right? We have this other tech markets that actually have a good foundational anyway because that's why we chose them synergies and the right growth rate, the right profitability, but they also have -- a number of them have real good tailwinds from the data center build-out, most notably HVAC or energy or the communication, there's a number of those as well. So we see there too, probably not as pronounced, obviously, as in semiconductor actually. And it's a bit in line probably how the sales develop. So then you asked about China. Yes, China is a very particular situation. I mean last time in Q2, we talked about that China sales was a bit slow. We explained that's just a temporary thing. That's about timing than anything else. And you also see now with this strong increase, 70% that year-on-year that China remains for us a very important market. We have very strong relationships, really outstanding relationships on innovation, on driving the industry forward. And we're also very well positioned with our long-standing footprint there to also scale up, innovate together and push forward. I think we certainly profit from the advantages of being a European company in the perception. So there is replacement, obviously, of U.S. OEMs and also U.S. component suppliers. And then they have their own AI data center build-out, which you could say there's a triple factor boosting us and we are certainly taking market share, right? So that was also your last question on the market position. Yes. I think we are close to #1 market position. I think it depends a little bit how you measure and where you look. So it's a bit hard to say everything being so dynamic and the market itself scaling up so much, but our position is extremely strong regarding technology and the market share. I would say [indiscernible] out of 20 product lines, we are clear #1. We want to remain there, and we plough on like never before. That's the time of our labs really. Okay. It's so much fun these days. Thank you. I hope I answered.
Yes. Congrats.
Next question comes from Craig Mcdowell.
Hope you can hear me okay. Two please for Dimitrij. Just the first one on gross margins, please. Underlying basis, it sounds like you're around 48%. I think that's at the high end of your historic range. Is there a risk we've seen peak gross margins, obviously, with pricing uplift already in revenue, but the higher costs not yet in the P&L, just given the quantum and inventory shift, et cetera. You mentioned shipping costs coming through. Maybe if you could give us a few thoughts on how we should think about gross margin evolution from here? And then I have a follow-up as well.
Sure. So look, our statement on the expected inflation effect is more reflecting what we see around us. So if you look at the critical components like electronics, there is a lot of data available indicating 6% to 8% inflation on those components we see specifically, it's all public data. So obviously, this will -- entire industry will feel it. The same is relating to freight and specifically air freight that since March, April actually kept constantly increasing. And we also have a certain effect actually of these 2 areas that I mentioned reflected already in Q3. But in the end, this is something that we just along with the publicly available data, I just expect to intensify. So to answer your question, we have it reflected. We also mentioned that we have it more than compensated because, of course, also volume helps. But for your projection, I think it's important that you account for increased inflation, specifically electronics and airfreight.
Maybe important to -- for everybody to remember, we really used last year. I said back then, we do bold moves as a whole team. So we really reconfigured ourselves and placed ourselves for such a ramp. It was about to come. It was a bit miserable last year, obviously, a couple of quarters and the whole geopolitics. But it also ended and we implemented, we delivered it. And now with the uplift and the Boeing and the better cost structure and the better footprint this is a lasting effect, obviously, right? Next to the operating leverage that continues -- as the growth continues. But this is not a rubber band going up and down. This is the new way of how INFICON operates and you've seen that since Q2. When we announced in Q1, we have done and we were done. And since then, we are above this 20%. And we always said we want to push beyond that. And so that's what we continue to do. There is going to be quarters-over-quarters fluctuations.
Super, very clear. My next one was on operating expenses. Just there was quite a sequential step-up Q2 to Q3. Maybe you can explain the underlying activity there. Should we think about the Q3 as the right base to model going forward? Or is there sort of seasonal accrual effects potentially going on that we should be aware of?
Yes. So there is a certain element of seasonality. So if you look at year-to-date, we're actually around 15% overall in the OpEx increase. So if you look at net sales increase versus OpEx increase around 10% productivity, 10 percentage points. But specifically for this quarter, and as I mentioned, we have a certain function, we are -- certain functions we're ramping up, specifically in the technical area, application engineering service. But also there is a certain effect in the -- from the variable compensation. Everybody, we always talk about it. Every INFICON employee has a certain component of variable compensation. So if results go up, obviously, this needs to be accounted for. There's a certain effect of this. And obviously, investments into future growth and organization. So also revamping systems, having the best-in-class technology available for our employees. So all these factors, the combination of these 3, you actually see in the Q3 SG&A results as well as R&D.
And should those largely sort of reverse, I guess, in Q4? And should we think about the adjusting factors...
We continue investing. We continue growing. So I cannot tell you whether you can use this now as a run rate, but there's nothing completely out the books. You have certain one-off effects that I mentioned before, they are both in gross profit and in the OpEx. But there's not enough that's something that you need not to significantly take out of this number. Offtake also implies a seasonality effect for prior year, right? So you need to consider this.
And next, Craig is in the line. This time, it's Craig Abbott.
Just a couple of remaining questions, please. I'm just trying to get a better understanding on your supply chain management. Twofold question here, please. On the one hand, we've heard from some of your peers that they basically have requested the OEMs to give them an even longer lead time than historically and quite materially longer in some cases, in part so that they themselves can also help their suppliers provide them more visibility as they are then ramping up their own production capacity. So I'm just trying to -- the second part of that is I'm trying to understand what parts of the supply channel you're particularly concerned about because it sounded like in Q4, you were expecting that there might be a hiccup, there might not. I don't expect to necessarily be company specific, but of course, but if you could maybe give us some indication of what parts, what elements of the supply chain you're most concerned about? That would be the first one and then I got my second question.
Okay. Yes. On the supply chain, so much, just a second. So we learned obviously a lot from this COVID supply chain crisis. We really went inside and analyzed what do we need to do better next time we are ramping. And we had a little time as we were going more flat in growth in the last couple of years. So what we did is with large suppliers, we really strengthened the collaboration, the planning process, how we manage materials, and we also reconfigured our footprint, obviously, to be closer to places where it makes more sense for customers and suppliers. So there's been a lot of work on that. So it's not typically the large parts or the significant parts that have been painful this year, which is kind of interesting. So it's the unexpected smaller parts. I mean one, I can mention that hit us a few times was magnets because of rare earth. That's really pure geopolitics and then you need to reconfigure and source different. But also there, I have to say the team did an outstanding job with having these different locations and then pivot. And there was a blockage here and then there was [ SaaS-free ] alternative popping up very quickly, and this could work around it. When I look at it from the group management, this is still concern. Yes, they adapted. They were agile. That was great. But at the same time, such unexpected incidences, they can stop a product line for a while, right? You need the one little magnet, the machine doesn't run, tend to need a bunch of the special pieces to it to run, so you can't just ship them out there or something, right? So that is the concern that how it looks at it today. And we had a number of other such ones. Again, we could navigate each one of them. There was a little expediting cost, a little bit extra cost in qualifying another team or we had to redirect some extra forces. So that's where it's at the moment, but it has increased, right? And we also see the strain a little bit, let's say, some sweat on the forehead of some other players in the industry. So I just -- that's why we expect next year to be harder than this year. That doesn't mean that it will stop entirely, or it will slow down the growth dramatically. There's some risk of that, but I don't think that is the likely scenario. But we must look for upside risk and downside risk as we look ahead. Naturally, a geopolitical escalation like last year or something else of that nature is the biggest here. But that is not what we would see as a major likelihood. But who knows these days. I hope this helps you a little bit, Craig, on understanding how it presents itself today and looking forward.
Yes. It does indeed. Yes. And the second question, I think Dimitrij to the previous question, you provided some insight on what parts of the -- where you're seeing the cost pressures. You mentioned freight costs and critical electronics. I just wondered if you could provide us with any color on how material in terms of your total COGS, these 2 buckets are?
Yes. I would not quantify it at this stage because it's a bit similar to the supply chain statement. We see what's happening around us. We see also the effect in the books. It's reflected also in the Q3 results. So it's not a theoretic topic that we are indicating, but it's something we see already with increasing -- both increasing freight costs, but also electronics and other areas, partially balanced through pricing measures, but partially also we are -- we need to account for it in the results. So at this stage, I would not quantify it, but I would rather leave it there that it's quite a significant factor for the next years, I would say, and specifically, in the next months, it will intensify based on what we've seen in Q3 actually.
Okay. Just if I can follow up and then I'm really done. It's just -- when you're negotiating with your client, you said there's been some balancing by pricing measures. I mean, how is the environment there in terms of open book discussions with your customers and passing that on?
I mean by customers, yes, I mean, open book discussions are never a good idea if you're a solution provider with a lot of IP. So it's not what we typically do or ever try to do. But of course, we can talk about the general factors much like Dimitrij described it. That's what we look at and that's how we sit down with our customers, material prices, shipping prices. And also, I explained earlier that we have a very active innovation pipeline that does upgrades in a couple of months intervals because it is for every step of a new process, you need to go and do a tweak on your variant and move forward. So then you bring value and nobody else can solve that problem. Obviously, you can price based on the problem you're solving, which typically a sensor is not a big thing in the grand scheme of things of how CapEx is spent in the fab. So there is an opportunity for us, which we're also working on. And I think we have been more regimented of how we organize this. I want to stress nonetheless, like -- and you see that effect actually this year. Last year, in Q2, we had this discussion, I believe, Q3 earnings calls, how much can you push the prices of the trade war or the cost of the trade war on to your customers? I said then this is always a conversation. This is long-term 10, 20 years relationships that have much more entailing than just the immediate price range and margin, it's mostly about innovating together and solving problems and pushing forward in that technology area. And I think the way we behaved last year has shown already positive effects again this year. We have done that in the past. You can look at that the COVID crisis or so and we did a similar thing. So also when it now again, comes to price pressure or inflation, it's a conversation where we, on a high level, find solutions with our customers, but we will never go and just push prices over on people, right? So that is not how you can operate, obviously. So maybe to explain that, I know you probably know, Craig, but maybe for the benefit of everybody else, a little bit how our thinking is also in that term. We'll make right by it, right? So we will -- if there is inflation, we will find solutions to compensate for it. And if you need an example, we had a lot of price pressures of different reasons last year and we fixed it clearly, right, starting Q2 this year.
Thank you, Craig. I don't see any further questions for the time being. So this may be the time for your closing remarks.
All right. So thank you very much, everybody, for your continued interest for the great discussion here. We're really excited about these times, some of the best times ever, so much innovation, so much dynamic and of course, a ton of growth. So we look forward into the future and go the path together with you. And obviously, we're ready and really excited with the whole team. So we meet again for Q4 full year earnings release next year. Thank you very much. Have a wonderful day.
Thank you, everyone.
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