Intrum AB (publ) (INTRUM) Earnings Call Transcript

Warm welcome to Intrum's Capital Markets Day 2020. My name is Anna Fall. I'm the Chief Brand and Communications Officer at Intrum, and I'll be your guide this afternoon. So some housekeeping before we kick off. We aim to end the program at the latest 4:00 p.m. Central European Time. We'll offer you a short break, about halfway through, around 2:30, and we'll take a Q&A session at the end of the whole program. And you're more than welcome to already now start submitting any questions you might have, and you can do so throughout the program, and you'll find the e-mail button on the page. So Intrum is an international company. We have presence in 24 European countries; and this afternoon, the program reflects that as we are fully digital and the 4 speakers are located in 4 different countries. Of course, this also reflects the ongoing pandemic that we are experiencing. So we have our President and CEO, Anders Engdahl, in Spain. We have Michael Ladurner, our acting CFO, here with me in the studio in Stockholm. And then we have Harry Vranjes, who is our Chief Operating Officer, in Switzerland. And finally, Anette Willumsen, Managing Director for Sales and Service Developments, in Norway. So by that, I'm very pleased to hand over to you, Anders.

Thank you, Anna, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our Capital Markets Day 2020. My name is Anders Engdahl, and I'm the CEO of Intrum. If we turn to Page 4 in the presentation, as you would have seen this morning in our press release that Board of Directors of Intrum has today approved a new set of financial targets for the company. The new targets reflect our view that metrics that capture the true underlying cash generation of the business most accurately reflect the value creation that the company generates. The targets are divided into 4 areas: return on capital, growth, leverage and shareholder remuneration. Starting with first. Our new return target is to reach at least 10% cash return on invested capital over the medium-term. Second, the target for growth is to reach at least 10% growth in recurring cash EPS on average per year. Thirdly, our leverage target remains, which is to achieve the same target range as before, 2.5 to 3.5x net debt to cash EBITDA latest by the year-end 2022. And last but not least, our new shareholder remuneration target is to continue to deliver an annual absolute increase in our dividend per share. Throughout today's presentation, our ambition is to demonstrate to you how we intend to achieve these targets and how the transformation program supports that ambition. So then turning to Page 5. In today's presentation, we intend to give you a good understanding of where Intrum stands today, where we're going with the transformation program and what it is that we intend to do. And thirdly, what this means to our stakeholders. So when you leave today, we want to leave you with the following key messages: Intrum has a resilient, sustainable and proven business model focused on client and customer service. The megatrends and macro drivers that were currently emerging strengthens our business case. The ONE Intrum transformation will create a simple, digital and scalable operating model, and ONE Intrum will attract more clients and enhance client, customer and employee satisfaction. And in total, a growing Intrum will create significant value for our investors. So turning to Page 6. Intrum has been around for a long time. Our roots date back more than 100 years, which means that our business model has been proven to both the ups and the downs of the economic cycle over a long period of time. Over the last 100 years, we have indeed seen periods of different -- difficult times where the company has managed through depression, through war, through several financial crises and most recently through the COVID-19 pandemic. Intrum also, for many years, have had sustainability at the heart of our business and with our vision to lead the way to sound economy. Then going into Page 7. At its core, Intrum has a very simple business model, and that is we support our clients by caring for their customers and we'll come back to this more during today's presentation. Our model is centered around our clients and our clients' customers. Our clients extend credit to their customers and for some reason, sometimes, the customer is unable to repay. It can be due to life events, due to unemployment, illness or otherwise by fortune. We offer our services to our clients, and we work with our clients' customers to help them find solutions where they can repay and get back on their feet financially. When we offer our services, we can offer to act either as agent or as principal. When we ask as agent, on the left-hand side of the page, we collect all claims from customers on behalf of our clients. When customers pay us, we remit those collections to our clients, and the client pays out the commission. For that, we need our costs and the net of the commissions and the costs is our profit margin, which currently stands at approximately 25%. This service line is inherently capital-light in its nature. It is also important to understand that the majority of what we do in servicing is working with relatively early-stage arrears. We can also act as principal, which were laid out on the right-hand side of the page. Usually, when clients have tried to collect on a portfolio of claims for some time, they may choose to sell the remaining claims. We can then offer to purchase those claims and collect on our own behalf. We incur an initial capital outlay and then we collect all the claims from our customers and keep those collections to ourselves. We incur costs and then the net profit which we measure then against the initial capital outlay. On average, over a 15-year portfolio life that we measure, we collect approximately 2x of what we pay initially for those claims. Now if we turn to Page 8. Nonpayment of loans and receivables can put a major drag on economic growth in the economy and prosperity in society as a whole. It was particularly evident post The Great Financial Crisis over a bit of a decade ago, where many financial institutions became overloaded with nonperforming loans and constrained by high NPL ratios and weak capital ratios, preventing them from supporting the economic recovery, limiting expansion of new credit. Therefore, companies like Intrum play an important role in the financial ecosystem, helping our clients resolving their NPL challenges. And we work along the entire credit value chain supporting our clients with credit origination by providing credit information and credit scoring services. We worked with receivables management, like invoicing and pre-collection services, and we work with debt collection where the receivables become overdue, including offering to acquire the claims later in life. For our clients, we offer a one-stop-shop solution along the value chain and we also offer the highest quality standards of products and services, and we offer cost-effective solutions. And for our customers, we offer fair treatment and ethical collections. We offer value-added customer experience, a variety of channels, including mobile and online channels, and we strive for finding financially sustainable solutions. And all this is reflected in the core values of Intrum; ethics, empathy, dedication and solutions. Then we move to Page 9. Following the merger between Intrum Justitia and Lindorff in 2017, Intrum was established as a clear European market leader. Since then, we've expanded our footprint and established leading positions in large and important NPL markets such as Italy and Greece as well as strengthened our market position in Spain. Today, we have leading positions in the majority of the markets where we operate, and we effectively cover 98% of the NPL market in Europe. And if we go to Page 10. In addition to completing our geographic footprint, we've also expanded our servicing and investing competencies in a broader set of asset losses. As you can see from the charts, we have increased the proportion of secured servicing revenue since 2017. And today, in our strategic markets being Italy, Spain and Greece, it represents 2/3 of what we do. So why is this important? Well, if you look at our clients, especially our bank clients, they have NPEs, nonperforming exposures, across all categories of loans on the balance sheet. And by having built a full-scale product offering from very early to the late arrears as well as real estate and across all asset classes, including secured and unsecured as well as being able to work with both household and corporate claims, we can be an effective one-stop-shop for our clients. This broad service offering, hence, make us a strategic service partner for our clients. Let me go to Page 11. Today, Intrum is the partner of choice for leading financial institutions. And our scale, our size, our diversification and full value chain offering gives a unique competitive advantage in our industry. This is further demonstrated by the significantly lower cost of funding that we can attract from the credit markets. And if we turn to Page 12, we're very proud of our large and growing and loyal client base. We service more than 80,000 clients across Europe, including some of the largest financial institution like Banca Intesa Sanpaolo in Italy, DNB in Norway, Piraeus Bank in Greece, Banco Santander, which we meet across a dozen markets or more across Europe. But we also service many large corporates, for example, EDF, UPC, Telenor and Baloise. In addition, we service thousands and thousands of small- and medium-sized enterprises across a wide variety of industries and segments. This means that we have a very well diversified client base, with limited single client dependency. Now we turn to Page 13. To us, operating at the highest ethical and regulatory standards is key. It is key to us, it's essential for our clients. Our industry is evolving, and we continue to see varying situations across jurisdictions where we operate. Nonetheless, we aspire to maintain the same high regulatory standards across all our jurisdictions. Furthermore, we believe in the benefits of regulation as we see that we, as the largest player in our industry, can help develop the standards for the industry and create a healthy market environment with fair and ethical customer treatment. As the market leader, we have a constant dialogue with the regulators, both locally as well as at the EU level, to help develop a suitable and sustainable framework. Internally, we foster and strive for high regulatory awareness among our staff, and we also advise our clients with respect to how to adapt to the evolving requirements. Now turning to Page 14. Sustainability is core to everything that we do, and it has always been. Based on input from our stakeholders, we have developed a full sustainability framework, which goes across a number of dimensions. We've laid out 3 of them on this page, which is: The first is enabling sustainable payments. This includes ethical collections by treating customers fairly. This I've mentioned already several times and has been a core element of our sustainability strategy for many years. It also includes responsible client and portfolio selection, which means that we only do business with clients and by portfolios that fit our sustainability criteria. We also want to increase financial knowledge in society. We, for example, invest in education in schools around the personal economy awareness and financial literacy. For example, we have a program to educate high school students in Sweden called Spendido. The second area that we laid in the middle of the page, we call, being trusted and respected. This covers areas such as data security and privacy, anticorruption oversight and mitigating environmental impact. And thirdly, growing by making a difference. This area covers us as an employer, where we strive to attract and retain the best talent, invest in and foster employee well-being as well as diversity and inclusion. But we have a clear set of metrics and targets. Overall, we believe it's extremely important for us, our success as a company to take the lead in our industry when it comes to sustainability. Moving to Page 15. To clarify our sustainability agenda, we formulated a set of clear and defined sustainability targets. The 5 targets are laid out on the page: The first one is in the area of ethical collection and treating customers fairly, where we aim to maintain the high level of value index that we currently see, about (sic) [ above ] 80 by 2023. The second area is labeled sound economy for our clients, where our target is to increase our average client satisfaction score across the group to above 75 by 2023. The third is to reduce our environmental impact by achieving climate neutrality by 2030 and reduce our total emissions by at least 20% compared to 2019. And the fourth is to attract and retain the best talent, including well-being for our employees, where the target is to increase the engagement index to above 80 by 2023. And fifth and final target is around diversity inclusion, where the target is to reach a balanced gender representation in all leadership positions and among all employees. And moving to Page 16. Intrum's financial performance, since the merger, has shown strong growth across all metrics. Cash EBIT is up 40% since 2018, corresponding to an annual growth rate of 22%. Cash EPS is up 50% since 2018, corresponding to an annual increase -- or annual growth rate of 26%. Moreover, our financial performance during 2020, during the pandemic, has demonstrated a significant resilience of the business as we've continued to drive cash EBITDA growth whilst navigating extremely challenging operating conditions. This has allowed us to continue the long-standing track record of interim in progressively increasing the dividend per share, where the compound annual growth rate is 12% over 15 years. Now moving to Page 17. As I stated in the beginning of the presentation, Intrum has been around for a long time, having developed over the last 100 years, both during periods of economic expansion as well as during periods of significant challenges. Some periods over the last 100 years have been even worse than what we see today. What's noteworthy is the stability of the business that it displays through the business cycle with a steady and stable performance, both during the peaks and the troughs, meaning the business performance shows limited correlation with the macro development and the macro environment. Most recent performance during 2020 is a further proof point of that. Moving to Page 18. This stability is underpinned by the very strong cash flow profile with stable servicing cash flows, combined with a high degree of automated and online payments and payment plans that we have in our portfolio collections. The portfolio has continued to show resilience this year, and collection performance this year-to-date is 99% collection performance compared to pre-COVID forecast until Q3 2020. This gives us a solid cash flow. And looking at the 12 months, the cash flow net to equity holders is 13% cash flow yield to equity. Furthermore, there are SEK 16 billion of available liquidity that we currently have. And having addressed our maturity profile on the balance sheet, it gives us significant financial and strategic flexibility. Then moving to Page 19. So this is the position that we have. Intrum is the market leader in our industry in Europe. Intrum is the largest, most diversified CMS company. We have a proven, resilient and sustainable business model working across both servicing and portfolio investment. We have a full-service offering to our client base, and Intrum is the partner of choice to financial institutions. This, we believe, is a very strong starting point to embark on an industry-defining transformation program, a journey which, we believe, will redefine our industry. As we and the management team for the last number of months have been exploring how to take Intrum to the next level, it has become clear that we have some challenges in the way we operate today. Today, we still operate as a multi-local CMS company, which creates some limitations to our ability to drive further traditional efficiency improvements. Whilst our multi-local approach to date has made it able for us to tailor our services to our clients needs locally, it means we have a fragmented operational footprint, where many functions and the processes are duplicated across many countries. And this fragmented setup makes the implementation of, for example, new technology, very expensive and slow to roll out as it requires multiple implementations, integrations and adoptions to a large number of collection systems. So our vision -- sorry, we now enter the transformation program, which is aimed at fundamentally changing our operational setup. And we think that this will unlock significant efficiency potential; enhance our client and customer value proposition; enhance our competitiveness, our agility, our speed and at a lower cost for us and for our clients. So our vision of Intrum tomorrow is based on the ONE global operational platform, which is simple, scalable, digital and which makes us relevant to our clients. So to put it simple, the transformation program lays the foundation for long-term profitable organic growth for Intrum for the years to come. Moving to Page 20. The ONE Intrum transformation program is aimed at supporting Intrum reaching its new financial targets in the medium-term. We start with a good starting point, but we have some way to go to achieve these targets on all metrics. Michael will come back later in the presentation to give you some color on how we see the path to achieving these targets. Looking at where we stand as of the third quarter 2020 on the different metrics, in terms of returns, in the last 12 months, our cash ROIC was 7.5% and where we aim to achieve at least 10% in the medium term. In terms of growth, we maintain at least 10% recurring cash EPS growth on average per year, and the average since the merger is 14%. In terms of leverage, our target is to reach the target range of 2.5 to 3.5x net debt to cash EBITDA by the end of 2022 at the latest. We currently stand at 4.2x, and we see a clear path to reaching this target. In terms of dividends, we see that we will continue to deliver dividend growth per share, in line with our cash EPS growth over time, leading to an absolute annual increase in our dividends each year. Taken together, our financial targets highlight our focus on sustainably growing free cash flow and shareholder remuneration over time. Then move to Page 21. So given our starting point today with a fragmented multi-local model where we see substantial potential to drive return on capital through the transformation program, we also say that we're ideally positioned to take advantage of the strong market backdrop emerging post the COVID-19 pandemic and with a transformed ONE Intrum common platform, be in a position to drive both organic growth and return on capital sustainably for the years to come, delivering significant value to our investors and other stakeholders. Now let's turn to the megatrends and macro drivers that we see strengthening our business case for the coming years. We turn to Page 23. So looking at the CMS industry, we see a number of important megatrends and macro drivers, supporting the industry for the coming years. Some of these have been driving the industry for the past decade and some have been further accentuated by the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impact. We've laid this out on this page as a pyramid when we start at the bottom of the pyramid. At the bottom, there is a normal continuous NPL generation in the economy amongst banks and nonfinancial companies providing a base flow. Then, in addition, there's a second wave of NPL formation expected to form post pandemic to level similar to what we saw post The Great Financial Crisis. Regulation, which accelerated the post-financial crisis, continues to drive NPL sales and externalization of servicing. And then we see companies that are now, in light of the economic development, increasingly compelled to shore up their liquidity and ensure business continuity. In the fifth step, second to the top, we see that customer behavior is changing and the accelerated development in retailing towards e-commerce stimulates growth in consumer credit. And finally, financial investors are set to become, once again, a large and meaningful opportunity as the post-COVID NPL volumes are being addressed. Now turning to Page 24. As I started with on the previous page, at the bottom of the pyramid, we have an underlying base flow of NPLs being generated in the economy. On an ongoing basis, European banks generate ordinarily approximately EUR 100 billion worth of NPLs each year. And that's based on the normal level of expected losses of approximately 50 basis points applied onto a stock of loans of approximately SEK 20 trillion. In recent years, that loan stock has grown by approximately 3% per year, which has also then been driving demand for services from our industry by approximately the same amount. Then turning to Page 25. On top of that, we now see a substantial buildup of NPLs expected to come through over the coming years as a consequence of the pandemic and its adverse impact on the economies across Europe. Estimates vary a bit, but conservatively, the NPL stock is set to at least double. This means that the NPL stock post pandemic will rise to levels similar to what we saw post the financial crisis a decade ago. And a decade ago, that buildup fueled the CMS industry for many years afterwards as portfolios were outsourced for servicing and portfolios were sold into the market. However, the content and composition of the NPL stock this time looks a bit different. It looks to be less real estate development driven as we saw across many markets a decade ago, but instead this time, more SME and household loans driven. That fits our capability set very well. Then turning to Page 26. Regulation has been a big driver of volumes being sold and externalized for servicing by banks over the last 10 years, and we expect this trend to continue. While we see at the moment a temporary relief introduced by the various moratoria across many countries, we see that regulators continue to focus on banks addressing their NPL ratios, leading to further NPL sales and more outsourcing in the coming years. The cost of keeping NPLs on the balance sheet has gradually increased as new capital adequacy regulations have been introduced and with Basel IV, we see that trend continuing. Furthermore, the industrialization of our industry, combined with a focus on digitizing the entire customer journey, means that it's becoming increasingly expensive for banks to invest in their own in-house collection units. Combining that with the increased focus on operational efficiency by lowering cost income ratio and increasing profitability that banks themselves have had to focus on in order to improve the return on equity, this continues to encourage outsourcing. Turning to Page 27. In our European payment report earlier this year, we observed a clear shift in our respondents saying that late payments create a liquidity squeeze and even a threat to survival, which is encouraging them to seek help to ensure that they get paid for their invoices. This has been significantly exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic challenges. Then turning to Page 28. Perhaps the most forceful megatrend, amongst both financial and nonfinancial companies, is the shift in consumer behavior trends in terms of digitization. E-commerce has accelerated further during the pandemic, and we see that behavior increasingly coupled with the extension and utilization of consumer credit. One group of companies in this category is the Buy Now Pay Later companies such as Klarna, Afterpay and a few others named on the page, which display explosive growth. These companies offer payment solutions with built-in consumer credit extension, which, in part, become overdue. Many of these companies started with in-house collection departments but now -- are now increasing the outsourcing. Hence, having a strong global one-stop-shop offering is very powerful allowing the Buy Now Pay Later companies and other e-commerce companies for that pattern to access collection services in an easy, cost effective and consistent way across the markets where they operate. The e-commerce trend also drives demand for credit cards and other consumer loans among the financial institutions, which has seen rapid growth in a number of markets over recent years. Then turning to Page 29. And finally, we see the financial investors once again becoming part of the solution for the emerging NPL stock post pandemic. For us, financial investors present opportunities, both in terms of servicing, as most of them don't have their own servicing capacity, as well as an opportunity in terms of co-investment. We have had, for the last number of years, an active co-investment strategy, and we expect to continue to do so. Then turning to Page 30. Looking at the emerging picture for portfolio investments post pandemic, we see an overall favorable outlook. Volumes are expected to rise meaningfully over the coming years. Our balance sheet strength facilitates the investment growth of favorable returns and investment returns are expected to improve compared to the pre-COVID scenario. This year, in Q2 and Q3, returns increased meaningfully to significantly higher levels, but we don't see these levels to be sustainable. That said, we also don't expect returns to return or revert to the pre-COVID levels anytime soon. Our funding costs have stabilized at attractive levels, which gives us an expanding spread between the funding cost and the return on the investment. So to summarize, market dynamics, driven by macro and megatrends appear favorable for the coming years, and we believe that Intrum is ideally positioned to capture these market opportunities. The transformation program further enhances our focus on efficiency, competitiveness and acts as an enabler for organic growth in servicing and supports our competitive nesting portfolio investments, allowing us to grow profitably across all our segments. And now I will leave it over to Harry to take you through some of what we -- the details that -- of the program and what we, in practice, are about to do. So Harry, over to you.

Thank you very much, Anders. Let me start by introducing myself. I'm Harry Vranjes, and I'm the Chief Operating Officer at Intrum, and I'm here today to take you through the ONE Intrum transformation program. This program will fundamentally transform our operating model, digitalize our clients and customer journeys, lower cost and scale our platform in order to be able to serve our clients more effectively and more efficiently. Now moving to the next slide. So as Anders mentioned in the megatrends section, the world is changing. Digitalization is changing customer behavior. Our clients need to adapt to this behavior, and we, in turn, need to adapt to them to stay relevant in the future. Now this goes for the small enterprise as well as the large corporates and banks. For the small enterprise, we need to be able to deliver simple, effective digital solutions. And to the large corporates, we need to be able to offer custom solutions that fit their needs. Now as a leading player in our industry, we need to be on the forefront of collection effectiveness and efficiency in order to be able to offer competitive pricing at attractive margins. Now building on our existing scale, we are now fundamentally changing our operating model to ensure a more efficient organization that allows us to capture incremental growth at attractive margin of cost. Moving to Slide 34. Now the industry as a whole, as the legacy, has grown through M&A or through country-based greenfield start-ups and is, therefore, typically multi-local. This means that we have difficulties benefiting from scale in general and from cross-border scale specifically. This multi-local setup, as Anders also mentioned, makes it difficult to roll out technology in a concerted way. And even though the industry as a whole are investing significant amounts in IT, we are still underinvested. And this gives us a fragmented view of our collections. We typically only see after-the-fact data from our global centers or from the top. Now in the ONE Intrum model, we will be operating in a truly global model. So utilizing a single platform built on modern technology, making it easier and faster to access the vast dataset that we have. And we have the critical mass to absorb the investment to get there. Next slide, please. So the ONE Intrum operating model will build on simplified, standardized digital processes across every market and function in the company. Now coupled with significant investment in analytics and a reduction of complexity in our IT environments, we will be able to reallocate resources in a more effective and efficient way across the company. Now to efficiently operate in a standardized process model and in a simplified global operating model, we need to address our technology stack. So we are building new client and customer portals, increasing digital channels to communicate with clients, customers, but also partners and authorities are also digitalizing at the moment. So we're rolling out a single core system across the group linked to a standard set of supporting systems. Now the standardized processes and the simplified technology landscape will then enable us to dramatically increase our use of analytics across the markets. We will be running 1 data model and having the data on 1 enterprise data hub. This, in turn, will then allow us to leverage advanced analytic models and machine learning across all stages of the collection process, making data-driven decisions based on more data and faster. Moving to Slide 36. And going back to Intrum now. So as Anders explained, we are a multi-local setup. We have 41 operating units that are more or less self-sufficient. They have their own IT, their own operation, analytics, et cetera. We won on 55 collection systems. And of course, they are all linked to surrounding systems. And we have about 1,500 of those. So this drives significant complexity and cost. Because of this fragmented setup, servicing multinational clients is difficult. And of course, the rollout of analytical solutions and digital solutions is slow due to the diversity in the data models. Now in addition, this model makes it difficult to become a learning organization. Great idea is to stay in their silos or in markets and don't travel well over borders -- over cross-border. Now in the ONE Intrum operating model, we're implementing 1 process framework where we digitize and standardize processes, which we then run on a common IT platform. And again, this gives us then the ability to use analytics, which in turn allows for the reallocation of resources. We do this leveraging our strengths, skilled collectors in the local markets and flexible staff that we are building up in the centers. So we will then have truly global operations and truly global support function, which makes us as local as needed and as global as possible. Moving to Slide 37. So we are relying on a set of core capabilities to deliver this transformation. Most of the capabilities we already have in place today. And this process framework and the global/local execution model is being built as we speak. Now starting with scale. So we have a vast data pool already today. We have global reach. We have our own operations in 25 countries and 160 more are accessible through our partner network. We have the financial resources. Now when it comes to the global model that we are now building, it's still based on a strong local commercial ownership, which we have already in place today. And then we are complementing this with the ONE process framework and the global and local execution framework. Now none of this will be possible to deliver without our people and our strong culture. Our collectors -- we have collectors out in the markets with deep subject matter expertise, able to handle anything that comes across their desk or their screen. We have highly skilled process and data analysts. And we are now building up a flexible workforce to be able to rapidly adapt to change in volume in these centers that we are setting up. Now -- but we build this on the foundation of a strong value-based culture that we have developed over many years. Moving to Slide 38. So how are we going to do this? Well, first of all, the client journey is at the center of the ONE operating model. So we started the program with an in-depth analysis of our current processes from a client and a customer perspective. Based on that, we have notified new standardized processes that can be executed in the same way regardless of market. For ONE example, we have 40-plus ways of booking payments today. It is a core process for us. Now we are setting up ONE process based on advanced analytics to recognize and allocate these payments to the correct claim. The investment into this payment hub is quite significant and it will be too much for an individual market. But as ONE Intrum, we can handle that and we will benefit from it. And in this way, we go through process-by-process redefining, standardizing, digitizing, leveraging analytics. So leveraging the defined standard processes, we then build global operation centers and customer service centers. These units will mainly execute these standardized processes, and we also build the IT systems, the interfaces, the portals, the analytical models to enable the efficient execution of those processes. And with the processes, the organization, the systems and the analytics in place, we then need to move the actual case management to get the benefits. We need to get the volume over to the new volume, and we will do this market-by-market, segment-by-segment across the coming 3 years. Moving on to Slide number 39. We see this as a 3-year transformation journey. We start with defining the processes, and we will have the unsecured customer processes defined by the end of this year. Client processes in Q3 2021. For secured collections, we are building a brand-new model to be ready mid next year. And this transformation also, as mentioned, affects every part of the company. So all support functions will also go through their simplifications and adapt their way of working to the new model. And we start -- from the support functions, we start with the design of finance, data management processes and we will have those in place by the end of 2021. Now in terms of global capabilities, we are growing our existing operations center in Vilnius to critical mass during 2020. That means we're going to have some 180 people there to be able to support the new model already from start. We are setting up 3 customer service centers by Q1. And first-out is Athens where we plan to be live already actually by the end of 2020, and then we follow with Málaga and Bucharest by the end of Q1 next year. And we're also rolling out the new collection systems to all countries by the end of 2020. So currently, 18 countries have a base version of this platform, another 6 countries are currently in testing as we speak, so that we will have all 24 implemented by the end of this year and then grow from there. Now the benefits as mentioned will come once we are able to operate our PI and servicing volumes in the new model. So in terms of transferring case management, we will start in Q1 2021 and focusing on the PI segment. And by the end of next year, we then expect to have some 40% of our cases -- of our PI cases operated in this new model. And for the external servicing clients, we will start in 2022. This stream requires close cooperation between Intrum and the client themselves to move forward. Now throughout the journey, we will also be decommissioning systems that are no longer needed, with the majority being decommissioned at the end of the journey in 2023. So we've shown the plan -- moving now to Slide 40, I should say. We showed you the plan, and now we also want to talk a little bit about successes or achievements this far. So we have made a landmark migration onto the new platform in Greece. It's an unsecured portfolio which we signed in Q4 2019, consisting of some 220,000 cases and EUR 2.4 billion in outstanding claims. This was migrated onto the new platform in May 2020 and is now serviced according to the new model, with back-end processes executed in Vilnius and collections handled by a mix of local in-house teams and local partners. And the results out of this is, so far, we are collecting at over 100% of the original forecast, and we have reduced the variable cost significantly due to this delivery model. Now in terms of lessons learned here, as a sizable migration, this first step shows us that, yes, this model works and it also showed us that we have had excellent cooperation between the global functions and local, and which, in turn, gives us great confidence for the other upcoming migrations during '21 and '22. Next slide, please, 41. So now turning from the large Greek bank with huge volumes, we now go to our smaller enterprises. Currently, we are operating 40 small enterprises in this model across 12 countries. Now for the SME client, they typically have a very low number of claims, but the claims are of crucial importance to them. An unpaid claim can mean bankruptcy. So we are now serving them from this global platform with core back-end processes executed from our operations center in Vilnius and verbal client and customer contact through the local country. And the main communication, though, goes through the new client and customer portals that we are setting up which have been simplified to communicate better with both clients and customers. Now in terms of results, we are seeing high client satisfaction among these clients and especially international collections already from low volumes is a popular feature that we expect to grow as more and more SMEs do business cross border. We are also, at the same time, benefiting from training our internal teams on the internal processes and the model for who does what, et cetera. And in terms of lessons learned, well, we see that the SMEs have very, very similar requirements across Europe. They want a simple service, a reliable service, predictable pricing and basic items as understandable invoices and so on, is at the top of their wish list. And as these requirements are so similar, we are expecting that we will be able to scale these services in a very efficient way. Moving to Slide 42. For the large corporate, so in Switzerland at the moment, we are implementing a client in the media industry, which is volumes of around 2,000 cases per month. They have just concluded their digital journey. They have replaced ERP systems and processes on their side and now they need a partner who can maximize the benefit of their transformation. So we are implementing at the moment. We are opening the new cases via the API. Those tests have been successful. And we aim to be live in February 2021. And of course, now with the new models of these APIs that we have invested time and money in, will now, because of the ONE system be reusable for other clients using the same ERP across Europe. And this will give us speed and shortened time to revenue for the next implementation. I think the lessons learned out of this is that all large corporates are working on a digitalization journey or a transformation of some sort. The only difference is which stage they are in at the moment. And we, as an integrated partner, must be able to live up to these demands on speed and on simplicity. And the players who can't do that, who can't keep up, they will be sidelined. So moving to Slide #43. Now obviously, this ONE Intrum transformation is a large undertaking, and we will need to keep track of it and follow it up in a very detailed way throughout the journey. Now here, we will show you sort of the high level core KPIs that we are tracking on a monthly basis to be able to ensure both progress of the program itself but then also the realization of the benefits. A simple KPIs or clear KPIs, the volumes transfer KPI will show how the execution of the transformation is progressing. We start with 0.25 million cases through this Greek migration that we did earlier this year. And during 2021, we will transfer an additional 12 million PI claims and then finalize the PI segment in 2022. Now for the servicing claims, we will start in 2022 and run through to 2023. Now this means at current volumes, we will be ending up 38 million open cases in -- by the end of 2023. Now just to put that number in context, that corresponds to 7% of the population of our footprint in Europe. Now then to track the efficiency benefits generated through the transformation program, we are using a core KPI, which we call FTE cost-to-connect ratio. Now this is not specifically to track FTE cost, but this reflects the reduction in effort generated from the model or from the program. So the reduction of FTE effort per case will come through standardization of processes, digitalization of manual actions, reallocation of resources, improving collection performance and avoiding ineffective actions through the use of analytics, as described earlier. Moving then to my final Slide #44. The ONE Intrum transformation is expected to generate savings of SEK 1 billion annually from 2023 onwards. Now to get there, we will be investing SEK 1 billion over a 3- year period. Starting with the investment side, roughly 50% of the investment will go into technology and data management, which, as we discussed earlier, needs an overhaul. The other 50% are costs associated with building the global operation centers, building the global capability for unsecured, secured, finance and customer services. Now in terms of the savings, we are expecting annual savings of SEK 1 billion from 2023 onwards. And again, the drivers here are standardization of the processes to reduce the overlap, digitizing processes, reallocating of resources, improved collection performance through analytics. And in addition, we will then be optimizing our IT spend as a group as we decomplexify our environment. So these are the key items driving the savings and building the rationale for the program. And with that, I will hand over to Anna.

Thank you, Harry, for that walk-through of the ONE Intrum operating model. So now we'll put the spotlight a bit more on our clients and their customers. And I'll soon hand over to Anette Willumsen in Oslo. But before doing that, let's watch a short film. [Presentation]

So with that, I'm pleased to hand over to Oslo and Anette Willumsen.

Thank you so much, Anna. And my name is Anette Willumsen. I'm Managing Director for CMS Sales and Service Development and Markets. And in the film we just saw, we just served some of our clients and the customers' view on Intrum. And what will the transformation to ONE Intrum presented by Anders and Harry recently imply for our clients, our customers and our employees. So let's start with our clients, but also look at how ONE Intrum will support Intrum's future organic growth. Going back to [indiscernible] I'm proud because in the Intrum, we have a strong and loyal client base across multiple industries, all the way from banks, financial institutions via telcos, utilities, to e-commerce and SMEs. And through dialogue with both our existing and potential clients, it's clear that the most important criteria when they are selecting a servicing partner, that is the experience and the expertise within their specific industry. And we recognize the client's need for a differentiated approach, and we are developing our offerings and our commercial model accordingly. So our future commercial model, it will be centered around our clients' needs, both from a solution offering perspective, but also, as Harry said, from a delivery perspective. With a unified portfolio of offerings, which is tailored to each industry specific, it makes Intrum well positioned to help our clients manage their depth along the full life cycle. All the way from the early stages at precollection, reminder services to, at the other end, being a trusted partner, whether it's macro economy or regulatory drivers to optimize the balance sheet. The transformation in ONE Intrum, it will enable us to be more relevant to our clients and to deliver on their expectations. All our clients will receive best-in-class collection performance through our new global platform. Our strategic pan-European clients, they will continue to receive fully customized services as they do today. And then we have clients across traditional verticals like insurance, like telco, utilities, B2B where we will deliver industry modelized solutions that are relevant today and in the future for their industry but also saving them time and money through faster onboarding and integration. And then we have clients that require a more unified and scalable approach across multiple geographies, like, for instance, e-commerce, or for those, like Harry also mentioned, that's looking for a simple end-to-end digital service, like the SME, we will offer a global platform-based solution. So I will now, in the 2 next slides, visualize a bit how we see future client journeys, both for the e-commerce and for the SME. So turning to Page 48. And Anders, in his presentation, he showed that the e-commerce segment, it has shown solid growth and an increasing demand for credit management services during the past years. And we have multiple dialogues with global e-commerce clients to understand their needs. And through that and based on that, we have designed a global and simple future journey, which is aligned to how they are centralized and standardized in their operating model but is also scalable to support their growth, which often happens by expanding into a new attractive market. And Intrum is clearly a natural partner for global e-commerce players with our footprint across 25 markets in Europe, which is also ensuring them a unified and compliant customer journey across all these markets. To simplify the commercial dialogue, we mirror the client setup with ONE point of contact, ONE framework agreement, a team of industry experts with strong knowledge about key drivers within the e-commerce business. The onboarding is allowing a plug-and-play to add and grow into new countries, both with a single point of contact, standardized processes supported by standard formats and APIs. The delivery model is digital and simple based on 1 system platform in all countries. And it's also supported by technologically advanced portals towards the client. There's also a potential to Intrum to leverage the vast amount of data that we have in Intrum today. But most importantly, also stressed by the e-commerce business, it ensures a unified, compliant and customer journey in all markets through our ethical collection practice. The servicing will be from our global operation center with 1 hub across all markets, single point of contact for invoices, reporting, et cetera. So all in all, a global and simple journey, supported by the transformation, recently presented by Harry. We turn to the next page. Intrum has today a strong position within the SME segment in multiple of our markets. And SME is also a quickly growing segment with increasing needs for credit management services, also at the back of COVID-19 and the macroeconomic development. And we see significant growth potential and opportunities in this market segment. And the transformation and ONE Intrum, it enables us to unlock the full potential of the SME market, not only in some markets but across all our geographies through a standardized, simple digital offering and operating model. And the client journey for an SME will very often start by us partnering with relevant players upstream in the value chain to create awareness and accelerate our footprint across the market in this segment and also with a smooth integration for the SME clients. It will be a very intuitive shopping cart experience where you have modular offering and pricing in the sort of small, medium, large, as an example, fully digital self onboarding and uploading of cases and standardized and automated reporting, up-to-date data to follow-up their cases. And as Harry mentioned, 1 case could be the difference of going bankrupt, so doing that in the portals, and we will also supplement the digital interface with an SME team. So e-commerce and SME are clearly 2 segments with a solid growth and where ONE Intrum will increase our potential to further tap into these growth areas. So let's look into how ONE Intrum also can enable us and support a stronger servicing growth in a broader spectrum of industries but also some selected markets. Turning to Page 50. So taking an industry vertical perspective of the market, we see several organic growth areas for Intrum going forward. ONE Intrum and the transformation will make us able to capture the spread. On the one hand, referring back to the 2 client journeys, we see highest growth coming from segments like B2B, SME and e-commerce. And with tailored value proposition for these segments, ONE Intrum makes us much better equipped to tap into these less explored pools. On the other hand, as you can see in the lower corner of the chart, ONE Intrum also makes us more competitive in servicing our current clients and attracting new ones in mature and stable verticals, such as utilities, telcos and insurance. And through an optimized cost position and a unified servicing model, Intrum will be better prepared to face the regulatory-driven downward price pressure that we see in some markets while we preserve our margins. But nevertheless, banking and financial services will remain at our core. This segment is already by far the largest, and it accounts for 70% of the growth. And going forward, it is expected to outpace the nonbanking verticals in terms of growth. This is driven, clearly, as Anders mentioned earlier as well by the COVID impact on NPL formation and regulatory pressure for the banks to actively manage their NPLs. And with ONE Intrum, combined with our extensive expertise in both unsecured and secured claims across all our markets, we are well-positioned to help our clients in their efforts on managing their NPLs and by that, capturing the external servicing potential. And we see revenue opportunities, both from an increasing outsourcing share but also expanding our early services propositions like pre-collection, white-labeling and value-added service offerings. So turning to Page 51. If we then stay a bit in the banks and financial services, it's clear that they present attractive growth opportunities in all our core markets, and we have looked in some of the major ones. Starting with our strategic markets, they will remain strong due to the NPL ratios which are higher than an European average and a much higher pressure also to manage them. The large banks, both in Italy and Greece, they have already formed partnerships, like the one we have with Intesa Sanpaolo and Piraeus Bank but we still see multiple growth opportunities in all these 3 markets. And starting with Italy, we clearly see opportunities to service UTPs unlikely to pay with a large bank, but also bad loans and UTPs for the mid-tier bank. And referring back to Anders again, to take a servicing partner role on the back of the banks of [ leveling ] their NPLs off their balance sheet. If we then move to Greece, given the very high level of NPL ratios and the pressure to reduce fees, we see the similar opportunities on servicing on both sold and secured clients' portfolios. If we then move to Spain, they currently have the lowest NPL ratio of these 3 markets, but here, we clearly see growth opportunities and the continued growth in consumer unsecured, the SMEs specifically at the back of COVID, but also in business loans. If we then move to our home markets in the Nordics, they are expected to be quite stable but with the growth driven by the increase in the NPL volumes. We don't expect any structural changes in the terms of penetration of servicing but, however, we clearly see a potential in servicing of secured assets for the banks. If we look into a couple of large mature markets like the U.K. and Germany, ONE Intrum clearly gives us an opportunity to improve our footprint in that market and also share of wallet by expanding into the early stage services for our clients. And in the U.K., we would see that primarily the growth is driven and will be driven by earlier outsourcing of the unsecured, but we also see signs of services opening in the business loans and potentially within the secured debt. Moving to Germany. Growth is clearly being driven by the increase in NPL volumes in Germany. And we don't expect any large structural changes of the penetration of servicing, but we expect the same movement into early stage servicing for our clients. Last but not least, we see a huge potential in France. The NPL volumes in France, they are large, but the penetration of existing servicing is very, very low. And with ONE Intrum, with a broad portfolio of solutions, such as business process outsourcing and white-labeling, we are well positioned to drive and capture the market opening potential in France. Turning to the next page. I've spoken a lot about our clients, now it's time to talk about their customers. And with ONE Intrum, we will continue our ethical approach to help individuals and businesses in their financial recovery. And in the film we saw earlier, we heard Kenneth. He's representing one of our 250,000 customers that we speak to on a daily basis. And it is our employees talking with all these customers every day, every year, and they are led by our values, ethics, empathy, dedication and solutions. And our employees, they do a fantastic job in helping people understanding their financial situation and to get back in control. And that could vary from a guy that just forgot a couple of telco bills to another one that's in severe financial challenges, where we need to make a payment plan which is aligned with the payment ability, so they can make their payment and move on. And to quote Kenneth, "To sleep well at night." And with our position as market leading, it is important for us in Intrum to lead by example. Supporting customers in a respectful and ethical way and act as a role within our industry. And through the extensive data that Harry also mentioned that we have, now combined with new technology, we'll be able to offer our customers modern solutions adapted to their needs. Turning to the next page. And as I mentioned, it is our employees, they are key to serve both all our clients but also their customers across all our 25 markets. And when we navigate 1 global platform, combined with the local skills and expertise that we have in all these markets and 1 operating model facilitating a clear processes, clear targets and clear accountability, we will have a joint platform that will facilitate much tighter communication, better sharing of expertise and best practices. And I believe -- and I think it's [ humbling ] to say, and I'm proud to see currently in the first stages of the transformation that we already started, like Harry said, that our employees, they're raising their hats. In Belgium, in Spain, in the U.K., in Poland and really saying that I would like to try to work broader with my local skills and expertise than I do today and contribute into this. And this is really our aim to fully unlock the potential of our employees in this So to work for Intrum, it will mean and means that you're working for a modern technology, advanced market leader and it gives you the opportunity to grow, whether you grow in the country or grow and develop globally. So with this, I believe I have addressed the questions on what does ONE Intrum imply for our clients, for our customers and for our employees and how it enables Intrum to unlock the organic growth opportunities across both industry verticals and markets. So with that, Anna, I will give the word back to you.

Thank you, Anette. And with that, we'll actually walk into a short break. You can get a leg-stretch and a fresh cup of coffee, and we will kick off again with Michael Ladurner looking at the financial targets at 2:30 Central European Time. [Break]

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome back. My name is Michael Ladurner, and I'm the acting CFO of Intrum. I'm now looking at Slide 55. We have heard about Intrum's resilient and sustainable business model. The support of megatrends and macro developments, ONE Intrum, our transformation program as well as how we plan to deepen as well as widen our client pool and drive organic growth. However, before I walk you through how we see these elements playing out in terms of our financial trajectory and targets over the medium term, I would like to spend some time on the targets themselves. Our new medium-term targets represent an evolution insofar as they focus on cash rather than accounting metrics. We believe that the focus on cash, which we have already started to reflect into our quarterly disclosure earlier this year, is more reflective of the fundamental drivers, developments and strengths of our business. First of all, our returns target, a cash ROIC in excess of 10% medium term. We have defined this metric as the overall pretax recurring cash return on the average capital invested in our business, that is the sum of total shareholders' equity and net debt. Pretax cash return is defined as cash EBIT. Cash EBITDA adjusted for replenishment CapEx, that is the CapEx required to replace the collection of a given quarter based on in quarter collections and the last 12-month money multiple as well as other CapEx. Going forward, cash ROIC will be a key metric for Intrum in assessing business opportunities, business performance as well as driving underlying profitability well in excess of our cost of capital. Now turning to our growth target. Recurring consolidated cash EPS growth in excess of 10% per annum on average medium term. This target builds on our firm conviction that we will be able to not only increase our profitability, as highlighted by our returns target, but also to continue on our growth trajectory for the foreseeable future. As previously explained by Anders and Anette, this conviction is not only based on supportive megatrends and macro developments, but also in the ability to accretively deepen as well as widen our client volumes, supported by the transformation program, ultimately driving profitable organic growth. The calculation of recurring cash earnings per share builds on cash EBIT. The metric underpinning cash ROIC, less cash net financial items and cash tax, divided by the number of shares outstanding. In terms of leverage, we reiterate our target of a leverage ratio in the range of 2.5 to 3.5x by the end of 2022. The calculation of the leverage ratio remains unchanged. When it comes to shareholder remuneration, we have aligned our target with the track record we have built over the last 15 years, absolute annual increases in the dividend per share paid to our investors. As we believe that recurring cash earnings represent a more accurate picture of the fundamental development of our business, we will align the growth in dividends per share with the cash earnings development going forward, with the target of having increases in absolute terms each year. For your convenience, we have also included the historical trajectory of the financial target metrics as well as the detailed definitions in the appendix of this presentation. Over the coming quarters, we will further develop and adapt our disclosure to reflect these new target metrics and their key constituting elements to facilitate the review for all our stakeholders. Now turning to Slide 56. Moving on from the new financial targets themselves, I would now like to focus on what we see as key drivers of our financial trajectory in the medium term, and how these support increases in profitability as well as our organic growth ambitions. On our journey, we are supported by a number of building blocks or steps that build on each other. Normalization, transformation and business growth. I would like to take these building blocks in turn and focus first on normalization. 2020, which is the starting point for our performance going forward, has been impacted by a pandemic. Despite our proven resilience through the first wave and encouraging signs as the second wave is now upon us, COVID-19 has left its mark in the current year. Therefore, the first building block in our journey has to be the recovery and return to like-for-like pre-pandemic performance levels throughout our business. I will walk you through later in the presentation what this means for our financial trajectory in the context of the new financial targets. Turning to the next building block, transformation. You've heard from Harry about ONE Intrum, our transformation program and how we will reduce the like-for-like FTE cost to collect by 20% by 2023. Other things equal, this will positively impact our margins and is, therefore, an important factor in driving up our ROIC. I cannot emphasize enough that this is only one aspect of the financial benefits of the transformation program, and this becomes abundantly clear when we look at the third building block, business growth. ONE Intrum makes our business truly scalable, and enables us to add volumes at very low marginal cost, enabling us to share some transformation program benefits with our clients to drive organic growth. This in turn also makes organic volume growth highly accretive, to not only our growth, but also our returns target. ONE Intrum also enables us, as shown by Anette, to profitably expand our addressable client base and increase our servicing market share. Through being more efficient in servicing and further improving the quantity, quality and accessibility of our data, we also enabled the portfolio investment segment to continue to grow with improved profitability as well as less risk in our forecasts. Medium-term business growth is also supported by the megatrend showcased by Anders as well as the expected significant buildup of COVID-19-related NPL volumes. These will further drive growth in our CMS, strategic markets and portfolio investment segments. ONE Intrum will, in fact, enable us to not only take better advantage of this significant opportunity set, but to also do so with less risk and increased profitability. Now turning to Slide 57. I would now like to turn to looking at how we see these building blocks I have just described, impacting the development of the cash ROIC. We expect normalization to add 50 to 100 basis points to the current 2020 Q3 last 12-month cash ROIC of 7.5%. We see transformation adding another 100 to 150 basis points on a like-for-like basis over the 3-year horizon of the program as earlier introduced by Harry. We envisage business growth to add in excess of 50 basis points on top of normalization and transformation induced improvements, allowing us to achieve our target of a cash ROIC above 10% medium term. Looking at business growth specifically. It is worth noting again that the transformation program makes growth highly accretive at the margin due to the highly scalable operating model with low marginal costs, with this benefit being applicable across all of our segments. Now turning to the segments. CMS, strategic markets and portfolio investments. The building blocks I have just discussed have an impact on all 3 segments, but they impact all 3 segments in different ways. We can, therefore, also look at how each business segment contributes to the development of the cash ROIC medium term, as we have illustrated on the slide. We expect improvements to be relatively evenly spread with each segment to add more than 85 basis points. Another way of looking at this is that we see our servicing activities, the CMS and strategic market segments together, contributing approximately 2/3 of the improvements, while the portfolio investment segment contributes the remaining 1/3. When we focus on the segments one-by-one, starting with CMS, we see some benefits from normalization. However, given the more limited impact of COVID-19 on this segment specifically, we see a more significant impact from ONE Intrum and good organic growth, also supported by the transformation. We expect the CMS segment to disproportionately benefit from ONE Intrum given its current multilocal setup as well as granular client base and set of business opportunities. Turning to the strategic market segment. We expect a more significant impact from normalization due to the deeper effect COVID-19 has had in these jurisdictions. Strict lockdowns with the legal systems also being affected during the first wave in spring, a pattern that is now starting to repeat itself as we go through the second wave. Transformation, while also relevant to the strategic markets, has less of a broad-based impact is a significant part of the business in Italy, Spain and Greece is built on bespoke partnerships with leading financial institutions, which by the nature of the underlying contracts benefits less from the global operating model we are now building. While we expect business growth in these jurisdictions to be significant in the medium term, supported by significant NPL stocks pre-COVID and even more so post-COVID, total growth has to be analyzed against the backdrop of likely volume changes as our bank partnerships mature. In any case, we expect business growth to be a positive contributor also in strategic markets. When it comes to portfolio investments, we see a more even spread of the benefits from all 3 building blocks: normalization driving improving returns, particularly in Southern Europe. Transformation will improve our competitiveness and lower risk through more efficient internal servicing and incrementally better data, supporting profitable growth. Business growth is then based on the factors I just mentioned as well as supportive megatrends and macro developments, increasing the available opportunity set. Solid back book performance and continued capital deployment at attractive returns will enable us to grow cash EBIT from the portfolio investment segment, well ahead of the associated growth in invested capital. I just mentioned attractive returns, and this is probably a good point to share in some more detail how we think about portfolio prices going forward. While we have had high returns on new investments due to COVID-19 over the last months, as mentioned by Anders earlier, this has been on relatively limited volumes. As the situation normalizes, we also expect returns to go down. However, we do not expect them to fall all the way to pre-crisis levels for the foreseeable future, likely enabling us to take advantage of the substantial post-COVID opportunity landscape at attractive returns. Again, also looking at the ROIC trajectory through the segmental lens, we see a clear path towards meeting our target of a cash ROIC above 10% medium term. Now looking at Slide 58. As we have now covered our expected returns trajectory, I would like to apply the same approach to growth. Our target of a recurring cash EPS growth of 10% per annum on average medium term. Again, starting from the building blocks outlined earlier, we expect both normalization and transformation to add to the growth trajectory of cash EPS. Normalization through returning to pre-COVID levels were relevant and transformation, improving margins like-for-like, primarily lowering -- through lowering the FTE cost to collect. We have again here looked at the time period that is roughly aligned with the transformation program. We, however, also expect a significant further boost to recurring cash EPS from business growth based on the benefits of ONE Intrum as well as other tailwinds as outlined earlier. When we then turn to the segments, we see a contribution from servicing to CMS and strategic market segments of approximately 60% versus portfolio investments of approximately 40%. The contribution of portfolio investments is driven by 2 factors: the significant opportunity set we expect post-pandemic as well as the benefits of ONE Intrum in terms of enabling profitable growth, developing and accelerating over the life of the program. This point applies also excluding the impact of the Italian JV portfolio previously discussed. As for our returns target, again, all segments contribute towards achieving our target growth of 10% per annum on average medium term. Now looking at Slide 59. This slide brings together and very clearly highlights the expected developments I have just walked through. CMS benefits from margin expansion and profitable growth, very much supported and driven by ONE Intrum. Strategic markets is helped in its development by post-COVID normalization as well as significant post-pandemic NPL volumes with some transformation benefits. Portfolio investments exhibits profitable growth supported by all 3 building blocks: normalization, transformation and business growth as just explained. Looking at the group total and adding the trajectories of the 3 individual segments together, we have a further factor to take into consideration, common costs. And there, again, supported by ONE Intrum, we also expect benefits over time in terms of reducing the incidence of the overhead on our business. Overall, the ROIC expands from the current level of 7.5% to above 10% medium term, supported by profitable growth across all business segments. Now turning to Slide 60. Now we turn to leverage and look in particular at how we expect to fund the developments I've just outlined. Here we have, for illustrative purposes, chosen a time period up to the end of 2023. Over this time period, we expect net debt to remain broadly unchanged with some room for increases or decreases, a development with a CAGR of plus/minus 3% depending on business environment and opportunities available at any given point in time. This overall development should also not be interpreted as a flat development for any given period over the next 3 years as there will be fluctuations up and down on a quarter-by-quarter basis, driven by the developments in the business. When we look at how we expect to achieve this development, we need to consider the following elements: the cash generated by our business over the period in question, the cash spend associated with the transformation, replenishment and growth CapEx as well as shareholder remuneration. We are convinced that we can self-fund the transformation, business growth as well as shareholder remuneration over the next 3 years due to the highly resilient and growing cash flows generated by our business as evidenced on this slide. Now looking at Slide 61. In terms of leverage specifically, we see a clear path to getting to our target range by year-end 2022. Again, we don't expect this trajectory to be linear. There will be movements up and down on a quarterly basis. Notwithstanding this, we see the year-end 2021 significantly down from our current ratio of 4.2x in the area of 3.8x. In terms of cash EBITDA, we see a good expansion over the next 2 years, driven by the factors previously outlined. As for net debt, we have looked at a more conservative trajectory with a limited increase that will nevertheless allow us to achieve our target by year-end 2022, thus adding to our conviction. Now turning to Slide 62. As for shareholder remuneration, as stated earlier, we have built a track record of absolute annual increases in the dividend per share paid to our investors over the last 15 years. We have simply aligned our target with this historical fact and will align the growth of our dividend per share with the growth of our recurring cash earnings going forward. The continued growth trajectory of the dividend per share is again supported by all the building blocks, driving our growing cash earnings generations, as just discussed. Now turning to Slide 63. Here, I would like to outline how all the medium-term targets hang together and form a coherent picture. In terms of returns, we expect to expand our cash rate from currently 7.5% to above 10% medium term. We see this ambition supported by a cash EBIT growth trajectory with a CAGR of 10% to 15% over the coming years. As shown earlier, we expect this growth trajectory to be self-funded and supported by our building blocks, normalization, transformation and business growth. From a leverage perspective, we see cash EBITDA grow with a similar trajectory, again, a CAGR of 10% to 15% over the coming years. As for net debt, we have indicated a CAGR of plus/minus 3%. Overall, this results in a leverage ratio inside our target range of 2.5 to 3.5x by the end of 2022. This, in turn, translates into recurring cash EPS growing with at least 10% per annum on average, assuming net financial develop in line with net debt and funding costs as well as the current tax rate and share count. This trajectory underpins our ability to grow dividends and deliver an absolute annual increase in dividend per share to our investors. In summary, we believe that our targets are ambitious, that we have laid out a clear path of how we will achieve these targets medium-term and that achieving our targets will create lasting value for our investors. And with this, I would like to hand back to Anders for some closing remarks.

Thank you, Michael. Now we can turn to Page 64. So as -- before I summarize this, I just wanted to give a couple of comments on the current quarter on Q4. I mean, as we commented upon during our Q3 presentation a few weeks ago, we remain cautious on the outlook for Q4 in light of the second wave of the pandemic and the associated increase in restrictions introduced in many countries where we operate. It's too early to have a firm view of the quantum of any impact on the different parts of the business, and we don't expect any impact to the extent that we saw during the spring. But it can still put a damper on the normal seasonality pattern that we usually see when Q4 is normally the strongest quarter in the year. Once we have a clear picture on the outlook and if we see a meaningful deterioration, we'll obviously come back to you and update the market at such time. That could also potentially have an impact on the year-end revaluations for the year, including the Italian portfolio, but then again, we don't expect any impact to the extent to what we saw in Q1. But to come back to the presentation of today. So to summarize the presentation today. Today, we hope that we have given you a good overview of how Intrum will transform its operating model over the coming years and how the transformation will support the achievement of our financial targets. The transformation program will fundamentally change our operating model from a multilocal model to a truly global scalable model that is simple, scalable and digital. It will also help making sure that we continue to provide a relevant value proposition to our clients, our customers, and we, as an employer, can continue to provide value towards our employees. Furthermore, the transformation program provides significant financial benefits that both increases the value of our existing client franchise as well as providing the foundation for organic growth going forward. So taken all together, we see that a growing Intrum will create significant value for our investors. And with that, I will hand it over to you, Victor, for the Q&A.

Super. Thanks for that, Anders, and that, I think, concludes the formal part of today's presentation. So my name is Viktor Lindeberg. I'm heading up the Investor Relations department here at Intrum. And my function today is basically to ask -- to be the middleman from taking the questions from the webcast into the forum we have with the 4 presenters today. So acting as this middleman, I'm just asking the team and Anders to be mindful of the concept of don't shoot the messenger. So it can be some difficult questions maybe, but I'm quite sure that the competence and experience, not the least, of 41 years combined in the company for these 4 speakers should cover a fruitful Q&A today. And by that, I think we should kick off with one of the first questions coming in today, and that is on financial targets. Could you indicate what medium-term actually means? How should we think about that?

It's a good question. Normally, one can have a view on medium term. I think what we've tried to do here is we've laid out the time frame of the transformation program itself, which goes until 2023 with obviously lasting benefits there and beyond. So we should see it in the sort of 3- to 4-year period going out in time, but we haven't set a specific time frame for the targets per se. But we also want to make sure that this is lasting benefits that we see to be medium-term and beyond, so that this -- we will want to sustainably enhance the cash flow generation of the company and grow the company cash flows for the long term.

Okay. Thanks for that. And one, the previous targets for 2020 was to accomplish a specific EPS level and now you have introduced medium-term targets on a going concern basis instead. Why did you choose to go for this approach instead of having a fixed target set in time?

I think that we introduced that back in the 2017 target setting for the 2020 targets. Clearly, things can happen along the way. We feel that what is more important is to demonstrate how we build a franchise value of Intrum for the long term and that we can, as I said before, sustainably grow -- build a platform that can grow cash flows over a long period of time that we believe is more aligned with the medium-term target setting.

Yes. Looking at growth, how should we think about CapEx in terms of total CapEx to be able to drive this 10% plus EPS growth? So you have portfolio CapEx, obviously, but also other CapEx. So what is required to drive sustainably 10% plus growth?

I think what -- in terms of portfolio CapEx, if you break it down into a few components, right, we have portfolio CapEx for the portfolio investment business, and we have transformation specific CapEx now for the transformation program. And then we have other CapEx, as you mentioned. I think what is important here, and I made the comment before, that this year, we obviously have come down to a -- I made this comment in the Q3 report context, for instance. We've been at a more replacement level for 2020 and that we see that coming out of the COVID pandemic into next year and beyond that we can normalize our investment level for the coming years, whilst staying on the deleveraging path that we have today laid out. And in terms of the transformation CapEx, it's clearly laid out in the presentation, how much we expect to spend, and there's an appendix that you can all refer to, to see, which time frames we see that playing out. And as for the other CapEx, that we will clearly reallocate spend also towards the transformation program. So we should see over time, the other CapEx elements to reduce as we now build the global platform for interim. I don't know, Michael, if you want to elaborate further on that.

No. Anders, absolutely, I agree with what you've just laid out. It's principally the element of portfolio replenishment CapEx, where we've, in the past and today, very clearly laid out how we think about this year and the coming years. And then in terms of the specific CapEx associated with the transformation program, again, I would encourage everybody to look at the appendix where we've shown a very detailed phasing up to 2024 in terms of how OpEx, CapEx, benefits and other elements play out. I think in terms of other CapEx, obviously, as you very rightly point out, Anders, as we see the transformation CapEx come in, we will also see some of the other CapEx that we see today phase out over time.

All right. Continuing on the Q&A. Another question on cash EPS growth. You say that 10% underlying EPS growth is the target. How should we think about this hump coming from the JV in Italy? Should we look at 10% CAGR also beyond the hump in this context, how should we think about the SPV?

We have constructed a set of targets that can drive value for the company over the long term. And these are medium-term targets that do not include a specific portfolio in mind. But Michael, do you want to further elaborate on that?

No, absolutely. And I mentioned something to this effect during my presentation as well. At the end of the day, what we're setting out here is really a vision of a sustainable trajectory that we are very confident we can achieve, and that is not dependent on, in this case, the Italian JV portfolio. So it is indeed a case of looking through that specific hump and looking at the sustainable trajectory that is unlocked by our focus both on ROIC as well as the benefits from the transformation program that will sustain us into the medium-term and beyond.

Which if you look at the portfolio in Italy, for instance, could mean that we can have -- if we have a specific amount of cash flow coming from that portfolio, that would obviously be sort of on top of for that particular year. So the under -- you should read this as an underlying driver for the whole company, not specific to that portfolio.

Clear. We have a question that is directed for Anette. How important is PI as a value proposition towards your clients in the servicing segment?

In that segment, or -- to answer that. It's clearly, as we noted on the slide presenting the different verticals, the banks and financial institution is, by far, the largest. And of course, in that market to have the full value chain of services all the way from the early stage services to the other hand, to be a trusted partner that the banks can use when there are, as I said, either macroeconomic or regulatory-driven driver or drivers where they need to offload their balance sheet. So I would say it's a very important part of our integrated service offering to our clients and specifically within the banks and financial institutions, but also in some of the other areas like e-commerce, et cetera.

Okay. Thanks for that, Anette. Moving on in the list. There's a question on secured claims. And also, if we have seen any challenges in this business now in light of the second wave of COVID?

As I tried to comment upon a little bit. Clearly, the second wave is just upon us. It's a bit early to have a full view of what the consequences will be. As I also said, we don't expect it to be to the extent that we saw in the first half. But clear, if in -- our courts are working more from home or particularly courts, which are more paper-based and secured claims tend to be more little action driven. And if you also have a suspension of collateral auctions, for instance, that you have in some places, that clearly would slow down again. It's not to the extent that we saw in the spring, we don't think. But it will slow down compared to the third quarter speed that we started to pick up in some of those markets. So it's fair to assume that we would have, again, an impact, but it's hard to really put a number on it at this moment.

Understood. Looking at the transformation program and the ONE platform, are there any regulatory hurdles on a country level that will not allow us to fully harmonize and utilize the ONE platform? And how sensitive is this harmonization from a regulatory perspective?

Harry, do you want to go ahead with that one?

Absolutely. Well, we will be siloing the data. So there will be a common application layer, a common functionality, but every country, we look for compliance reasons and GDPR reasons, maintain an isolated tube of data.

Understood. Thank you. Moving on, on competition. We have a question on servicing. And can you put the competition level today in context, looking at where we have been, where we are today and where we expect to be going forward?

Anette, do you want to try?

Yes. I can try and take a go on that. I believe that we have a very strong position in multiple markets across Europe. We have obviously, a very strong footprint within the banks and financial institution, which we clearly believe that we will continue to develop with ONE Intrum. And then we have other markets where we are strong in some areas, strong -- and less strong in others. I believe that the e-commerce SME, as mentioned, we are -- we don't have the opportunity to serve across all markets. Currently, in the harmonized way we serve and we do it, but we have a huge potential there to grow. And equally, I believe we're also in the SME and in other markets, we will, through ONE Intrum, be clearly able to take the growth potential, like I showed in the different verticals. And then by that closing the gap that we might have to some competitors that are niche focusing on some areas.

Okay. Thanks for that, Anette. Moving on. On this new ONE platform, are you more dependent on partners in the new model? How much of the IT investments, for instance, are proprietary? And how much will you depend on third parties in this new model?

Harry, do you want to have a go at that?

Yes. So out of the SEK 500 million we're spending on technology and data management. I would say about SEK 250 million, SEK 300 million is for -- towards external partners, and the rest is internal.

Okay. Looking at the biggest hurdle to implement this new model, can you elaborate on these hurdles, how they sort of pan out, both from a internal perspective as well as an external perspective?

Well, continue on that?

Yes. I'll continue on that. I think in terms of hurdles, obviously, anything that is multilocal needs to be transformed. We need to go through the data. We need to replace the processes. And this will take time. And I think that is the biggest challenge. Once we have created the platform, and we have the volumes on top there, then I think we're in a much sort of more solid position. What was the second part of that question?

With internal and external hurdles of implementing the new model?

Yes. And then we come to the split that we have set out in the transfer of case management as presented in the program. We will start by moving the volumes of our own PI book, making sure that we are a good servicer to ourselves, before we start moving any major volumes of our servicing clients, and that's sort of built into the time plan. So that we build up this experience before we work with our external clients.

Clear. Thank you, Harry. Moving on. Financially oriented question now. One way of improving the ROIC would be to use the fund model. One of your peers is closing its large first fund now. Any thoughts about this setup and your potential strategy around this?

Perhaps I can start on that. So we have obviously observed with interest, the development in this area by certainly, one specific competitor has been very vocal about it. We've looked at it, but it's not something that we are currently contemplating for ourselves. We have instead been developing a quite active co-investment agenda and building good relationships with a number of financial investors that we have been continuing to co-invest along and do continue also in this year to co-invest together with. And as I covered in my presentation, we do see that with the buildup of NPLs coming post-COVID that the financial investor community will be an important part of resolving the post-pandemic NPL formation. And as such, we will certainly continue to look to partner with some of those financial investors to both attract servicing as well as for co-investment. So from our perspective, that's more the model that we've been pursuing, and we have as part of our plans to continue to do.

Clear. Looking at the mix between servicing and purchasing, can you comment anything about how you view this mix going forward relative to where we are today?

I think what we have seen over the recent past has been a somewhat increasing portion of servicing as we have been building out our footprint across Europe for the last few years. I think for the going forward and as part of what also Michael described, we do see a balanced growth across the service segments or the service lines and the business segments. And therefore, we do not see a meaningful shift in the business mix between the 3 segments per se. But obviously, from a quarter to another or from a year to another, there may be some variation, but nothing major or drastic from our perspective.