Metlen Energy & Metals PLC (MTLN) Earnings Call Transcript
April 28, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I am Vivian Bouzali, the Chief Corporate Affairs and Communications Officer at Metlen, and it's an honor to be with you today as Metlen starts a new chapter. Thank you for joining us today at the London Stock Exchange for Metlen's inaugural Capital Markets Day, a landmark moment for our company. We're very pleased to welcome you all attending in person as well as those joining us online. As you may know, Metlen, formerly Mytilineos, has undergone a remarkable transformation into a global industrial energy and metals company, active in more than 40 countries across 5 continents. Metlen is a reference point for competitive metallurgy at the European and global level while operating the only vertically integrated bauxite, alumina and primary aluminum production unit in the European Union with privately owned port facilities. In the energy sector, Metlen offers comprehensive solutions covering renewable energy, electricity distribution and trading alongside investment in grid infrastructure, battery storage and other energy transition technologies. For our U.K.-based guests, it may be of interest to know that Metlen has had a strong and growing presence in the U.K. for over a decade. We have completed many projects here with a combined value of over EUR 2 billion, positioning us as a key partner in U.K.'s energy transition. Today's Capital Markets Day offers a valuable opportunity to share insights into our strategy, business model, performance and future growth prospects. Our goal is to provide you with a clear view of where we stand, where we are heading and why we believe Metlen presents a compelling opportunity. Over the course of the afternoon, you will walk you through our financial trajectory, strategic initiatives, market outlook and, of course, the innovations shaping our business. We have also set aside time for a Q&A session at the end, so we encourage you to ask questions and engage with us throughout the day. For those that are watching us online, you may ask questions throughout using the right-hand side of the screen. Before we dive in, let me introduce you to our leadership team. Evangelos Mytilineos, our Executive Chairman, who established the company as Mytilineos Holding in 1990, a business who originates stakes back in 1908. In 1995, it listed on the Athens Stock Exchange with an EBITDA of less -- of more than EUR 10 million. Today, Metlen, as mentioned, has surpassed EUR 1 billion in EBITDA with a clear target to double in the medium term. Yiannis Kalafatas, the Chief Executive Director of Metlen Energy, previously CFO with the company since 2005. Dimitris Stefanidis, the Chief Executive Director of Metals, has been with the company for more than 20 years. And prior to that, he was an executive of Aluminium of Greece before Metlen acquired the business in 2005. Dinos Benroubi, the CEO of Metka, our Infrastructure and Concessions business. He joined the group in 2006 and played a pivotal role in launching the business of Protergia in 2010. Eleftheria Kontogianni, the CFO, joined Metlen in 2018, brings extensive financial experience from her 25 years in the private sector. Christos Gavalas, Chief Treasury and IR Officer, has held the position since 2001 following a successful career in banking. As you will see, the agenda for today on the screen behind me, we will begin with the Executive Chairman, who will introduce Metlen's vision of how we aim to grow Metlen to EUR 2 billion in EBITDA over the medium term and set the strategic context for today. We will then take a closer look at our core business units, starting with the energy, followed by metals, infrastructure and concession. After a short -- after all of this time, we will present the company in numbers, credit and capital market strategy for global reach before concluding with the Chairman's final remarks. We will then open it up to questions and hope you will stay for a networking reception, which will warmly invite you to attend, where you can meet and chat, of course, our panelists and presenters, but other Metlen executives that are here with us today. We hope you find today's presentation informative and inspiring as we begin the exciting new chapter for Metlen. Thank you. And I would like to hand over to Mr. Chairman, Mr. Evangelos Mytilineos.
A very warm welcome to all of you who took the time on a Monday afternoon in a sunny London. I'm very glad if not anything else, at least we brought you some nice Greek weather to make it even better for you. The weather in Athens is terrible. It's 15 degrees and very, very breezy for those of you who know what the breeze means in Greece. It's an interesting day for me, ladies and gentlemen. I remember my early years in London when I came to study at the London School of Economics. I was an anglophile then and have always been an anglophile all the way. That was quite a few years ago. It was a successful study at the [ LSE ] which is interesting. Sometimes they ask me, what [ LSE ]? Which are the 2? Now I'm talking about the London School of Economics. And after I finished the master's degree in economics, I was accepted by the Hamad University to do a PhD. Unfortunately, I had to decline the offer because I had to go back to Athens and take over a small and ailing family business because my father who was running the business was not in very good shape. Then the journey started. And I admit to you that although I'm a positive thinker, I never had thought that this will take me and all of us here to talk to you, such a distinguished audience about a business that has come all the way through enormous difficulties. Greece is not the easiest place to do business. And those who say that if you can make it in New York, you can make it anywhere. They don't. They haven't been in Greece to do any business. So it has been extremely difficult. Just to remember a few things over the last 20 years. Where should I start? Lehman Brothers. Our government then was saying, don't worry. Greece, of course, will not have a problem. Thank you very much. One year later, 2009, I was having a dinner in my boat near Athens. It was Friday evening. And Christos Gavalas, who is always the money man, as we call him. He called me and said, Chairman, are you sitting somewhere? If not, can you please take a seat? I take a seat and he goes all guarantees from the Greek banks that we have given for projects around the world as of tonight are null and void. If I remember well, Christos, the amount was probably around EUR 600 million. And then we had to rush to replace these guarantees within the shortest period of time. Otherwise, we would have, as you understand, all sorts of problems. And then almost immediately afterwards, the Greek, the very ugly Greek adventure started, and it lasted for many years. In 2015, we were almost thrown out of the Eurozone. Banks were shut. You can all imagine how difficult it was for us to keep the business going. But we did. And in 2017, when things started to become calm, we introduced our first big one problem with the aid and support of our long-time friends and consultants, the McKinsey Group, while Greece was still reeling from the bankruptcy situation. Greece was like this, but we were already on the way up. Big one was very successful. We absorbed in the mother company called [ Mytilineos ]. We absorbed all major subsidiaries, including Aluminium of Greece, Metka and Protergia, which, in the meantime, was starting in the Greek retail and generation sector. Things were getting better during the end of the decade. And as soon as we get in 2020, we have the COVID. I don't have to remind you the difficulties that you have all been through in the COVID period. But again, the COVID and the subsequent energy crisis, not only they did not stop our progress, but we took advantage of this situation. And this is what I have always said to my colleagues. When we have a problem, the issue is not to solve it and move on. The issue is to try to solve it, put our resources on, do our best and come winners out of it, make something out of it, which is exactly what has happened in the last at least 30 years. It was clear to us from the energy crisis that the metal business, which, of course, you all know is extremely energy intensive. Made it everything so clear that there was no metallurgy without energy. And for energy, metallurgy was and will always be the biggest offtaker. We thought a lot about it, how we combine the 2, and we ended up with the energy and metals combination, which was very successful. And I see now a few years later, a lot of companies around the world are following this example in many ways, either by creating their own energy departments, more aligning with the energy groups one way or another and so on because the energy crisis was extremely traumatic to the metals industry. And of course, above all, was extremely traumatic for the energy industry itself. I don't have to tell you how many energy companies went under or how many metals companies went under. 15 years ago, maybe there were 12 or 15 aluminum smelters in Europe. Now probably there are 3 or 4. So we have come where we are, going through the very hard way. Nothing has been easy and nothing has been offered to us in any way. The years passed, the project went well. Numbers followed and went equally well. And by 2023, we approached the EUR 1 billion mark in terms of EBITDA and a very high proportion of it was bottom line profitability, more than 60%. And then we had to consolidate. We had to try to consolidate above the EUR 1 billion. Things were, in some cases, better, in some cases, more difficult, but it went well. And we now feel confident that we have these numbers, and we are looking for the next step. We are here to tell you first and foremost how we are going to get there. We are starting the big 3 transformation program, details of which will be announced at our Annual General Meeting on June 3. It will be mostly an internal transformation, which we absolutely need in order to be able to carry out an extremely ambitious plan for the medium term of the company. My colleagues are going to tell you a few more about this program. But I want to say just 3 things about it. We want, number one, to strengthen our existing segments of the business. They are all in good shape and ready to grow. Take, for example, our retail business. We went up to 20% in a very short period of time, but our aim is 30%. If you can go to 20%, you can obviously go to 30%. This is an example of an existing segment and how we expect it to grow or on the production side, we announced at the beginning of the year a massive EUR 295 million investment in order to expand our bauxite mines to increase our alumina production by 50% and for the first time in Europe, introduce the production of gallium. Other than the gallium, which is a new thing, all the rest are existing businesses, which are bound to grow further. That's number one. Number two, we are exploiting the know-how that we have accumulated through the years in the defense sector, in the critical metals and most importantly, please take note in the circular metals, which is codenamed, inside our company, is codenamed market changer or game changer, if you prefer. The way we are going to develop these 3 segments is going to be explained to you in detail by my colleagues. And then in the end, I'll sum it all up and answer your questions so that everything is clear when we leave this place. Number three, in the Big 3 program, as I said, is the internal transformation, which is going to be heavy. And it cannot be otherwise. If you hear what my colleagues have to say about the sheer size of the plan, you will understand that without an internal transformation, we can't do it. It's a necessity. It's not a luxury. We have set an aim, a goal of a EUR 2 billion EBITDA in the medium term. When I first said it, I said 2028, but our banks, which are so close to us have guided all the way. They told me never to mention an exact year because then you will have to explain why this did not happen to the [indiscernible]. So it's medium term. Medium term in the U.K., as you know, much better than I do, is 3 to 5 years. So we're talking about medium term today. I have to comply. The last thing, all this is going to happen on the back of a robust financial situation of the group, which Christos is going to explain to you. A very strong positive cash flow and does not include any M&A corporate action, other than smaller acquisitions, which we carry through all the way in order to assist existing businesses. But no major acquisition. I'll come back to that in my closing remarks. Mr. Yiannis Kalafatas or George Kalafatas whatever. Yiannis is in Greek, will guide you through our energy business. Thank you very much, and I'll be with you later. [Presentation]
So good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I'm very happy and honored to be here in front of you. I'm Yiannis. I prefer Yiannis [ to Geon, ] but whatever. So as a way of introduction, let me get you a little bit back in the beginning of 2023. When following the big 2 project, as Mr. Chairman said earlier, we created a unified energy sector in Metlen with a target to integrate our business through a robust, resilient and highly synergetic operating model covering a wide range of the value chain in the energy spectrum. We also targeted to be always highly relevant to the future of the energy market, but also ensure that we are properly and safely navigating our business through a very volatile and many times turbulent path. If one looks at our energy business from an organizational standpoint, as you can see, this is structured around 5 big divisions: the generation and energy management, the customer solutions, which is called the retail, our Protergia brand in Greece; the integrated supply and trading, the renewables and the power projects. However, from a pure business standpoint, one can recognize 2 micro segments, the one of an integrated utility and the one of the energy transition platform. The integrated utility encompasses energy management and generation, retail and supply and trading and the sector of the energy transition platform covers a wide range of technologies and assets regarding the theme of the energy transition. We will call it today for the sake of this presentation, energy transition platform. This is also an integrated business platform operating on the full value chain from development, design, engineering to construction and electrification across multiple energy technologies and across energy infrastructures. To explain now why we operate these 2 macro segments, I would like to walk you through 7 big mega themes in the energy markets and explain the effects of these mega themes. The first one has to do with natural gas. Contrary to the market beliefs in the past years, we see natural gas remaining in the energy mix for a long period of time. The second has to do with the gas-fired plants, the technology of the gas-fired plants. In a market that connects more and more renewables, we see a greater need for flexible disposable gas units, both for the balancing but also the security of the energy markets. The third one has to do with the ownership of renewables and battery storage assets. We really believe and that shows also from the market that ownership of renewables and storage without the downstream backing is not an attractive business anymore, not a resilient business model. The fourth has to do with energy optimization and trading. We believe that in the coming years, the energy management operations and the trading capabilities will be an imperative to win. Sometimes it's going to be even more important than the asset themselves. The fifth one has to do with the focus of the energy transition. We see lately that the focus of the energy transition has changed and has moved from developing and constructing more renewables to dealing with the grid infrastructure issue and of course, with the storage of energy. The sixth one that we should not forget has to do with the role of the deep technology. Technology is going to be a very disruptive force in the energy sector. A balanced and dynamic mix of technological savants with people experience is going to be a key. Last but not least, geopolitical volatility. Geopolitics always were and always will be one of the determining factors in the energy markets. Going forward, we see geopolitical volatility to keep on challenging the markets. So looking through the lens of these mega themes, first, we're expecting much higher stochasticity in both supply and demand, which is about to maintain or even exacerbate price volatility. Second, the penetration of non-dispatchable renewables and the increase of demand coming from the development of data centers and AI brings about the need for more storage and more flexible dispatchable generation. Last, this all combined with the rise of electrification of demand signals the need for massive expansion of the grid infrastructure. All this stands at the core of this 2-pillar business model, the integrated utility and the energy transition platform. On the one hand, underscoring the key role flexible generation, energy management and trading as well as the importance of a downstream business, the integrated utility model can thrive on volatility and deliver resilience. On the other hand, in a market that will keep on investing in renewables, storage, electrification and data centers, creating a massive and imminent demand for grid infrastructure, our energy transition platform has a long-standing track record to deliver value. I would like to take you now to our 2-pillar business. And let's start with our integrated utility business. The heart of this business is based in Greece, where we have already established ourselves as a leading player across the whole value chain of power and gas. You heard later from the Chairman that earlier -- sorry, from the Chairman that we hold already a 20% market share in the Greek market. However, within the last 3 years, we developed also our presence in 10 more countries and interconnections through a very powerful and dynamic energy management and trading operation that allow us to retain flexibility while optimizing our margin operations in a market which is highly interconnected, but also highly volatile. Our asset base includes a very competitive and well diversified across technologies portfolio, 3 flexible and very efficient gas-fired power plants with an overall capacity of 1.7 gigawatt that can cover more than 80% today of the country's electricity demand and more than 41% of its thermal production. And of course, a well-balanced portfolio of renewables and storage. However, in our business, the greatest asset is our people. We have a sophisticated and very effective energy management and trading team in both gas and power, employing a mix of talent and experience, plus one of the best commercial teams in the Greek retail business. These assets have allowed us to develop a very dynamic and effective growth strategy that took us from 8% market share 3 years ago to 20% currently. Finally, the last 3 years, we're also strategically investing in technology. As I said, one of the most disrupting factors in the future of the energy markets. We're developing state-of-the-art systems and solutions with the use of AI and machine learning, both for our energy management and trading operations as well as for our customer solutions. But how that integrated business model performed and more specifically, how that performed over the past difficult years in the market. Over the past years, where the market was predicting the end of all fossil fuels, we were one of the few that had recognized the criticality of natural gas as well as the value of energy management flexibility and downstream backing. Therefore, we enhanced the diversification, flexibility and integration of our business model, delivering solid and resilient results in a very volatile and ever-changing market. And how we did that? First, through our diversified portfolio that allowed us to optimize our operations. I'll give you an example. As you can see here, when the renewable utilization is low, the flexible generation increases to capture the margins in the market. On the contrary, when the renewable utilization is high, the market needs more of the flexible generation to cover the requirements of the balancing market. Second, we calibrated our growth with a focus on maintaining our integrated position. We balance our sources and uses of electricity, and that acted as a natural hedge between the generation and the supply portfolios. On top of all, our supply and trading activities had a very vital contribution to the balancing of the portfolio, but also to the optimization of our margins. As such, from 2022, as you see on the graph of the right-hand side, until 2024, where the market dropped by almost 60%, we even managed to increase our EBITDA by 9%; however, within the last 3 years, we did not only achieve to be resilient, we've also proven our ability to scale up our business in a balanced way across generation and supply. So on the one hand, we increased and diversified our generation capacity by developing and constructing our renewables and storage portfolio, while we also built and operated our 826-megawatt H-class technology gas-fired plant, the biggest and most efficient power plant in the Greek market and one of the biggest and most efficient also in the region. At this point, I would like to underscore the fact that we were the first and maybe the only utility at the time that took this FID for a brand-new H-class technology gas-fired plant in a period that the market, as I mentioned earlier, was predicting the end of fossil fuels, including gas. And such a decision, I have to note that was taken without any backing for capacity auctions. On the other hand, we increased and diversified our generation capacity and we rapidly expanded our supply business, increasing the footprint of Protergia. Within the last 3 years, as I mentioned earlier, we managed to increase our market share from almost 8% in 2022 to 18.5% in 2024 and close to 20% today, supplying more than 9 terawatt hours to the market. At the same time, we have managed to increase our customer acquisition rate to 25,000 new customers per month, decreasing our customer churn rate from 30% to 22%, while competition stands at 38%. And we have a plus 30% NPS, one of the best in the market irrespective of segment. All the above concluded to awarding as energy supplier of the year in the year 2024. But let's see how we are planning to scale up our so far successful model and further solidify our integrated position. As we discussed earlier in the 7 mega themes, we expect the market to remain volatile with a lot of uncertainties and unpredictability. In such an environment, we will grow our integrated position, focus on flexibility, but also on adaptiveness. Therefore, while we are diversifying our portfolio, core-strengthening our renewables and storage fleet, we're also retaining flexibility to cater for different and diverse market circumstances. As you see on the left-hand side in the charts, we're increasing our portfolio from 9 terawatt hours to 17 terawatt hours, not only adding our renewable and storage fleet, but also adding a chunk of flexible sources under the energy management and trading. As said earlier, the market will become more stochastic in the future because of renewables intermittency and electrification of demand growth. Therefore, agility and optimization through dynamic and effective energy management and trading will become vital. In parallel, we will keep on growing our customer base, balancing between households, small businesses and commercial and industrial customers, targeting to a 30% market share by the end of 2028. This translates to a 19 terawatt hours portfolio of power. On top of this, we will also grow our integrated supply trading business, adding 28 terawatt hours. This will take us from 52 terawatt hours to 85 terawatt hours by 2028, capitalizing on the trust that we have built with the market. First, with our suppliers as a reliable, stable and big offtaker that started off with some years ago for a captive demand of approximately 20 terawatt hours, gradually developing to become more than double, reaching today a total of 51. Second, with our clients as a consistent competitive in pricing and credible partner. As we said a moment ago, we are targeting to grow our market share for almost 20% to 30% by 2028. This is clear as for the what. But what about the how? To reach this target, first of all, we are following a very dynamic commercial strategy, targeting more to the high-value customer segments as the households and small businesses, providing innovative, but also secure and transparent products customized across the needs of these customers. We want to further penetrate the B2B market with more sophisticated tailored-made products compounding power and gas. This approach has already differentiated Metlen from competition, and the results are very promising also for the future. At the same time, we're developing a structured and compelling retention strategy to further reduce our churn rates to reach the best in the industry. It is one of the main pillars of our strategy to provide the best-in-class benchmark customer service in the market. Finally, we are expanding our product catalog to new innovative products beyond the commodity, creating an ecosystem of solutions for our clients. However, I would like to say something about this one at this point. I'm sure you have all heard about this beyond the commodity strategy from almost all the utilities out there. So what about Metlen's approach? First, we're not targeting everything beyond the commodity. We're very clear that our core business is to provide the commodity in the most transparent, secure and competitive pricing for our customers. In this effort for security, transparency and competitiveness, we want to be able to do 2 things: First, change from a pure commodity pricing to a commodity as-a-service approach; and second, combine these relevant services to create a value-added offering to the customer, increasing loyalty and stickiness, of course, making always sure that this is provided with the best possible customer experience. As we concluded this integrated utility presentation, let me take you now to the second vertical of Metlen Energy, our global multi-technology energy transition platform. We have developed a technologically diversified platform with a primary focus on solar and storage assets and a geographical footprint that spans across 40 countries globally. For this portfolio, we're always working with the flexibility to either hold and operate or sell and rotate our assets. At the same time, we offer turnkey solutions across different technologies, focusing on 3 major pillars: a, power technologies from gas-fired to waste from energy and from renewables to storage; b, grid infrastructure such as high and medium voltage transmission lines, substations and converters; and c, digital solutions such as data centers. Regarding this vertical, we're also integrated on the full value chain. As I said earlier, we do everything from development, design, engineering to construction and electrification and energy management so that our clients can modulate according to their needs, their strategies and their aspirations. We employ some of the best and most experienced engineers with a track record that goes back for more than 20 years in this market. We're offering a wide range of solutions covering multiple technologies, being one of the few companies that do so out there. In a world that is massively and urgently requires such services, we are already positioned to scale up this business. As I described earlier, this vertical comprises of 2 basic pillars, the one of an integrated development of renewable and storage and the one of our multi-technology turnkey solutions covering from thermal to renewable batteries, grid infrastructure and digital solutions. Therefore, on the one hand, we run a very flexible, fully funded and effective asset rotation platform, developing, constructing, connecting to the grid, operating and managing renewables and storage assets across 40 different countries in 5 continents. This integrated development of renewable assets and battery storage is at the core of the activity. Within the last 3 years, we have successfully agreed and completed the rotation of many assets through [ landmark ] transactions. Under this program, the group strategically selects renewable and storage projects either to hold and operate or monetize and rotate, reinvesting the capital back in the pipeline. This approach is a disciplined and effective one, allowing to select its time whether we will operate or rotate the assets. As we said earlier, one of the 7 mega themes in energy has to do with the ownership of renewables and storage assets. Since we truly believe that ownership and operation is not attractive without downstream backing, we're not choosing to hold assets or at least hold them for long in markets where we do not have or do not intend to develop downstream business. On the other hand, I would like to emphasize also on the other pillar of an energy transition platform, the turnkey solutions. This is what we initially introduced us to the geographies and to the greater market of development and investors. This is also the reason of our competitiveness when it comes to the integrated development and construction of our own pipeline under our rotation strategy. Our superior capabilities in this field have been developed and sharpened for more than 20 years, during which we have delivered 143 projects across multiple technologies in power, grids and digital. You can see the diversification on the pie chart, where you see like 29 projects of thermal plants, 21 battery storage projects, 65 projects of renewables and so on and so forth. But as we said before, in Metlen, we are always looking towards the future. The trends and fundamentals that we discussed under the 7 mega themes are more than relevant for our energy transition platform. The investment appetite for renewables, storage, grid infrastructure and data centers is already very high and will keep on growing in the next years. On the back of that, our energy transition platform business as of today comprises of a portfolio of 12.5 gigawatts of renewable and storage with a good buildup across different stages of maturity, including 1.4 gigawatts already installed and operating, 2.8 gigawatts of mature pipeline, 3.5 gigawatts in middle and late stage of development and the rest of 4.7 gigawatts still in the early stages of operation of development. Second, a backlog of more than EUR 1.6 billion in energy transition projects, 42% of which regards grid, 28% regards thermal technologies and 30% regards renewable and storage. And these are only the beginning in a growing market where the demand for such projects is imminent and massive. As I'm concluding this short, I like to think presentation of Metlen Energy, in which I try to give you a good glimpse of where we are and where we're heading to, I would like to leave you with a summary of thoughts. The energy markets will remain quite volatile and sometimes unpredictable. The path forward might not be that smooth and straightforward with a need for more integrated positions and more sophistication in energy management and trading to be an imperative. However, the direction of travel of the energy markets has not changed. The world will keep on developing more renewables, but now this is going to be along with more storage. Flexible and efficient dispatchable gas generation will remain for long, playing a vital role for the balancing, but also the stability and the security of the systems. Electrification of demand will rise and take over, although the pace of it cannot be foreseen easily. Data centers are about to have a significant demand of baseload power in the systems. And all these are massively challenging the capacity and stability of the grid infrastructure. Metal Energy, through its integrated position as a utility as well as an energy transition platform, I think is perfectly positioned in this energy landscape for now and for the future. Thank you very much for your attention. I hope I wasn't too long. And now I will open the stage to Mr. Dimitris Stefanidis, our Chief Executive Director for Metals to talk about the Metals segment. [Presentation]
Good afternoon from my side as well. As mentioned earlier by Vivian, I have a long history of leading our aluminum business with more than 40 years of experience in total, having previously worked with Pechiney and Alcan in Greece, France and Australia and then Metlen's Metals business for 20 years now. Allow me to start by setting the scene for our Metals business. Metlen acquired Aluminium of Greece in 2005 with a big challenge ahead of us to make this business a long-term, highly competitive refinery and smelter. What we have achieved today is to operate the sole fully integrated and highly cost competitive aluminum business in Europe from bauxite mining to alumina refinery to aluminum smelter and then to recycling. A few years before aluminum, Metlen had acquired Metka, a metal construction company with a factory at Volos fabricating light metal constructions. What we have achieved today is to be a significant manufacturer for metallurgical defense applications. For both those businesses, we have identified growth opportunities and derisked brownfield projects. Today, I'm going to present to you the exciting projects that will transform us in the coming years. We're expanding our bauxite and alumina capacity to scale up our successful business. We're expanding our metallurgical defense applications production as our existing cutting-edge capabilities in the defense sector are becoming more critical in view of the changing world we live in. We're taking the first step towards critical materials by becoming a major gallium producer securing Europe supply. We're investing in our patented technology, launching our critical circular metallurgy business. We will discuss all these exciting projects. But first, let me refresh who we are today. We operate the largest bauxite mining business in the European Union with approximately 1.1 million tonnes per year of production and fully securing our alumina refinery needs for Greek bauxite. We have an alumina refining capacity of 865,000 tonnes per year, of which 350,000 are supplied to our aluminum smelter. This smelter has a capacity of 190,000 tonnes per year of primary aluminum in the form of billets and slabs. And we have a total -- in total, a capacity of 60,000 tonnes per year of secondary aluminum remelt and recycled. A few more details on secondary aluminum business. Before 2018, our capacity in recycling and remelting activities lied only on the opportunistic remelting in the smelters casthouse furnaces. It was then when we decided to grow into that business and have invested organically and inorganically to increase our capacity from 3,000 tonnes in 2018 to 60,000 tonnes per year today. We are the largest producer of secondary billets in Greece, and we plan to further expand to more than 100,000 tons of capacity in the medium term. Our activities are underpinned by our continuous improvement efforts, based on which we have managed to operate and integrate the aluminum business positioned among the lowest cost producers globally. We have a first quartile position on the global cost curves for both alumina and aluminum, and we are definitely the lowest cost alumina producer in Europe. Looking forward, the outlook for aluminum remains very strong. Global supply deficits are expected to grow together with increasing demand pushing prices up. As such, the fundamentals for the entire aluminum value chain remain very attractive with alumina, aluminum and bauxite to continue being on high demand. We are planning to cater for these market needs with our EUR 296 million investment program. First, we are planning to increase our bauxite production capacity to 2 million tonnes per year by further exploring our current bauxite concessions. At the same time, we are looking to increase our alumina production to almost 1.3 million tonnes per year with a new tropical bauxite processing line. Our investment program also includes the production of gallium at the same premises, but we'll talk about this shortly. The increase in bauxite and alumina production will provide security of supply for our operations and significant operational flexibility. Important, though, is how we approach this investment. An approach that is based on our prudency and discipline in investing as our expansion is underpinned by attractive long-term agreements. We have a long-term cooperation with a reputable global partner who, during the previous 8 years, supplied 2.9 million tonnes of bauxite and of took 2.3 million tonnes of smelter grade alumina and will continue to do so. In February 2025, we announced a long-term agreement with a big metals and mining company, which further derisks our investment. This agreement, on the one side, secures the supply of the required bauxite tropical bauxite for the production of alumina and on the other side, secures the offtake of this alumina. In particular, they will supply 14.9 million tonnes of bauxite for 10 years and will offtake 3.9 million tonnes of alumina from 2027 to 2034 with an option for a 3 years extension. And now I would like to take you back to the last piece of the EUR 296 million investment. We're going to talk about critical metals and specifically gallium. First of all, what is gallium? Well, gallium is a rare metal, critical for new technologies that can be obtained as a byproduct from the processing of bauxite. Today, the world is facing a global supply restriction of gallium and Europe has been long dependent on Chinese imports and now looking to secure its own production. For the past 5 years, we, at Metlen have successfully invested in R&D, which today allows us to extract gallium from the bauxite processing lines. To address the urgent, we are developing a production facility for 50 tons of high-purity gallium per year, a quantity that is expected to cover in full Europe's needs today. This is a significantly derisked investment, testing technology, secured feedstock and the site at our own premises. And our pilot plant is already proving this and yielding strong results. We will bring this to life in the same way we always do, identifying a market need, tying in synergies and ensuring operational excellence and low-cost production in everything we do. And now I'm moving to one of the most exciting parts of my presentation. I'm going to talk to you about our groundbreaking technology of recovering metals from wastes. But let me give you some background first. The mine supply is facing significant challenges today, decreasing ore grades, more difficult discovery and extraction and strong local opposition. At the same time, the European Union is becoming increasingly concerned with securing the critical raw materials required for the day-to-day life of its citizens. We believe that part of the solution lies in untreated residues originating from industrial processes, containing valuable amounts of metals who currently cannot be economically extracted. Having mapped thousands of assets around the world, we estimate that there are metals worth of $10 billion per year locked in these untreated residues waiting to be extracted. And this is where Metlen steps in. After years of R&D investment, we are finally ready to announce our new proprietary technology for the recovery of valuable metals from waste processing. I can tell you with certainty that our technology is unlike any other in the market, and here's why, it is flexible as it can quickly adapt between different feedstocks. It allows for simultaneous recovery of multiple metals in the form of oxides at low cost and with minimal waste, achieving a recovery rate of up to 99%, 98% said on the video, 99% is correct, significantly higher than that of other technologies. At the same time, it ensures net zero emissions and neutralizes all nonviable elements. We have already rolled this out at our pilot plant in Northern Greece with great success as we have managed to recover all types of metals in the form of oxides from a variety of industrial residues. Now what's next for this business? Based on our successful test results so far, we have a clear goal to achieve around 290,000 tonnes per year of output material in the medium term through 2 plants whose sites have already been secured. First, we have our fully owned operating pilot plant that I previously mentioned in Northern Greece, focused on copper and nickel and will be contributing 33,000 tonnes of annual output in the medium term. Second, we plan to utilize our secure fully owned site in Central Romania to build a large plant focused on zinc and copper, almost entirely based on captive feedstock. This plant will be operational in the medium term and will output an initial 115,000 tonnes per year as well as an additional 140,000 tonnes per year following its planned expansion. Our highly effective, cost-efficient and flexible technology is already backed by more than 5 million tonnes of secured feedstock, and we are in discussions with multiple industry participants to access additional feedstock. We have developed a solid and detailed business plan, tested under different scenarios to scale up our new technology. In any scenario, we are certain that our technology is highly attractive and profitable. We plan to spend EUR 0.5 billion in CapEx in the next years, which should unlock approximately EUR 220 million in annual EBITDA in the medium term. With this investment, we should be able to output multiple critical raw materials at a rate of around 290,000 tonnes per year. I can tell you one thing. This will only be the first step in the long journey ahead of us for our circular metals business. And as part of our ongoing R&D activities, we are also investigating ways to extract germanium from our captive feedstock in Romania and scandium from processed bauxite from our alumina plant in Central Greece, and we are looking forward to sharing more in this in the not-too-distant future. Final part of my presentation is the evolution of our defense business, but let's watch a video first to give you a glimpse. [Presentation]
Manufacturing complex metal structures is nothing new to us. We have over 60 years of experience in the field, capitalizing on our history and familiarity with metals processing. We started this journey with metal works for bridges and stadiums in Greece and entered defense applications in 1998, where we identified the market need. Since then, we have developed partnerships with leading global OEMs, including Raytheon, KNDS and HDW, providing critical parts for their end products. As such, we have developed strong experience in machining, welding, painting and coating for different types of defense applications. Our offering has become even more relevant today. Europe is rapidly turning towards rearmament, committing EUR 150 billion to the purpose and easing fiscal rules to further support defense spending. Greece is leading defense spending amongst all countries, committing first to double its 12-year defense spending to EUR 25 billion until 2036. And in this critical challenge, again, we cannot remain passive. On top of 2 existing production plants in Volos, we're expanding our production capacity with the addition of 3 new production facilities with one being already under construction under a EUR 150 million to EUR 180 million CapEx program. Our 5 production facilities will come to operation in the medium term and support our growth ambitions. First, we're looking to grow our defense core by increasing international and Greek sales on defense products close to what we already do. Earlier this month, we already announced our exclusive partnership with KNDS France for the production of Philoctetes, which is an infantry fighting armored vehicle. Second, we're looking to expand in adjacent areas such as modernization, repair and overhaul and also structures for national vehicles for the Hellenic armed forces. Earlier this month, we also announced the joint participation with Iveco in the upcoming Greek program for the renewal of existing fleet. Finally, we're assessing opportunities to enter new fields such as autonomous land systems and unmanned aerial systems. With this new size and purpose, we are now seeing metallurgical defense equipment as a new segment within our metals business, and we're excited to leverage on it to navigate through these interesting times in the global geopolitical scene. And I will leave you with these key takeaways. We're Europe's only fully vertically integrated aluminum producer, and we are actively investing to sustain the competitiveness of our facilities to drive growth by expanding our bauxite and alumina operations. We're opening new horizons with pioneering solutions in critical raw materials, becoming Europe's single actual gallium producer targeting to cover Europe's current needs. Circular metals is our new business line based on our innovative patented technology for metals recovery from waste. We're a leading producer of metallurgical structures for the defense sector and now expanding in this critical sector, investing in 3 new manufacturing facilities and broadening our offerings to support Europe's and Greece's rearmament programs. We are confident we will continue delivering strong profitability and significant EBITDA growth. Thank you all for your patience. I would like now to call to the podium, Mr. Dinos Benroubi to present Infrastructure and Concessions. [Presentation]
Well, good afternoon to everybody. It's a pleasure and an honor for me having the chance to be here and to talk to you. I'm the Vice Chairman and CEO of Metka Infrastructure, a construction company, who is a wholly owned subsidiary of Metlen. I have worked in the broader industrial sector, mainly heavy industry for over 45 years, 20 of them with Metlen. I will talk to you for the next 15 minutes or less about our infrastructure activities, including concessions and private public cooperation projects. Metka Construction and then Concessions were founded in May 2023 as a spin-off of this business from Metlen when we saw a huge growing infrastructure investment demand in Greece across both public and private sectors. As also it was said on the video, Metka Construction is 1 of the 4 seventh class general contractors in Greece. By the way, for the people that don't know the Greek system, Seventh Class is the highest technical grade of construction companies, and we are 1 of the 4. I'll spend a couple of minutes saying what made us as Metlen getting into the infrastructure and construction activity. We identified a significant medium- and long-term opportunity to capitalize on the growth of infrastructure investments in Greece. On the top graph, you can see that the old type infrastructure investment gap in Greece is calculated to about EUR 80 billion. This gap is the result of 20 years of underinvestment in infrastructure in Greece versus the EU average. If you can see and take the average of this graph, it's about 2% of the GDP gap per year. And this gap will have to be filled in a great extent. If we read Greece's foundation, the economic industrial research, which for the Greek is forecasting that infrastructure spending in the country will exceed EUR 18 billion per year for the next couple of years. Of course, this amount is not executed only by the big 4 construction companies, but by many other small and medium companies. But all the big projects end up to the big 4 because they are the only ones that have the financial and technical capability to handle this type of projects, and we are one of them. We correctly assessed also that we have the capacity to develop our technical expertise and that in this sector and that we have the execution capabilities. And our initial achievements have shown that. If somebody would be in Greece at this moment, they could see there are plenty of things going on in the infrastructure section. There are big public works financed by the state, supported by national and European funds, RRF as a big part of it. Private projects supported by Greece's economic recovery and more specifically, very many private projects that are concentrated in high-end hospitality and commercial and logistics facilities. Another very important factor we took into account, which led us to this decision is that many of the public works were going to be tendered, not as publicly financed works as it has been happening for decades up to now, but in a new form, in the form of public-private partnerships. In this public-private partnerships, actually a private party finances, builds and then gets paid with payments for the next 25 or 30 years. So this gave us the opportunity not only to act as a contractor to build them, but we would also have the role of equity investors. And we had an advantage on that as Metlen because Metlen in this -- in financing had a substantial advantage versus competitors. I would like to spend another couple of minutes saying why we founded simultaneously a general contractor as Metka Infrastructure is and the concessions companies and concessions. We feel that these 2 companies, which as far as I'm concerned, I consider them to be in the same sector, their sister companies, are fully complementary and synergistic with each other. Both have to do with roads, railways, ports and big energy efficient and innovative buildings LEED certified, LEED, I'm sure you know its leadership in environmental and energy design and bring together under the same roof, Metka construction technical expertise and outstanding human capital in conjunction with Metlen's through M Concessions always financial firepower. This leads to a self-funded and self-propelled model where M Concessions provides Metka with considerable project flow and the projects constructed by Metka in time and in cost, when they are put in operation, they provide a steady recurring cash flow back to M Concessions for many years. Our vision as Metka is to be leaders in our sector by delivering multiple projects on time safely, safety is first for us and our safety record is impeccable with engineering excellence and cost efficiency. All these 4 factors have to be there. On this slide, you can see a sample of the projects Metka is executing at the present moment. You can see that we are in all sectors. We are in roads, we are in rail, we are in ports, we are in buildings. Three of these projects, as you can see also on the slide, have been awarded to Metka by M Concessions. Actually, M Concessions in PPPs in public-private partnerships has been a pioneer. The first major PPP project has been through M concessions, and it's a road. From this project list, which is purely indicative, I mean, I could not fit all the projects in this list, you can see that within less than 2 years of existence, Metka has an established track record as a reliable contractor of choice. I would like to note at this point that a considerable percentage of the projects is in the list of our backlog. So this makes our backlog very secure because projects that we are already executing, the unexecuted part is part of the backlog. As I mentioned before, our most important asset is technical know-how. That's what we have mainly, our engineers. As you can see on the graph, we started in 2023 with 350 engineers, and we finished 2024 with 715 engineers. I'm proud to say that Metka is an employer of choice in our sector, and this helps in the inflow of engineers, and this helps us to recruit top-class engineers. Also, some other data you can see on the slide show that we doubled our EBITDA from EUR 23 million in 2023 when we started to EUR 56 million in 2024. And I'm happy to say by reading the trading update for the first quarter that the pace is doubled or even more versus the first quarter of 2024 on revenue, always speaking. Our EBITDA margin, which, by the way, is very close to our [ EBIT. ] We don't have amortization. We don't have interest cost. It depends always on the project pool every year. Each type of project has maybe a different EBITDA margin. Our target is to work with an average EBITDA margin of anything from 13% to 15%, but this is average. There are projects that are higher than this. There are projects that are lower than this, but we always try to keep something between 13% to 15% as an average weighted average of our projects. The exact number each year, as I said, depends on the mixture of projects that is public, private or PPPs. Each one has a different profile. In 2024, as you can see, the return on capital employed, which is a photograph, of course, was 24%, which gives Metka a positive view of the future. So after having said all that, I strongly believe that Metka working hand-in-hand with M Concessions is well positioned to capture a significant share of Greece's upcoming infrastructure investment. One last word about our future is that in less than 2 years, we have a quality secured backlog going at the moment at least over EUR 1.5 billion, which is well balanced between heavy infrastructure and buildings. That's the first split and also a second balance, which is between public works, private works and PPPs. This gives both -- if you see both these graphs, they give an equilibrium. You are not a lopsided, one-sided company. The visibility on already publicly declared medium-term PPPs, except for public works and private works is EUR 3.2 billion. That's already known PPPs that are on the market for bidding. And it's estimated that they will be awarded until the end of 2026. Our target is to get anything from 20% to 25% share of the PPPs market in these years. And this will add in addition to public and private works, a secure steady income to Metka in the years that we are constructing them. And then when we finish constructing them, it will give a very strong free cash flow to M Concessions for the next 25 to 30 years while they operate and M Concessions keeps getting the annual payments. So thank you very much for listening to me. And I'm going to call to the podium Eleftheria Kontogianni, which is the CFO of Metlen to talk to you about the numbers.
Good afternoon to all. No video for me. I was mad about that, but I feel better now. The team ensured me that the next time I will have 2, so it's okay. Allow me to introduce myself. My name is Eleftheria Kontogianni. If you cannot pronounce Eleftheria, you can call me Freedom. This is what it means in Greek. I hold the role of the CFO since January 2023 when Metlen announced its second big transformation back then. I've already completed with the company 7 years this month. And today, I will have the pleasure of guiding you through our recent financial performance and also sharing insights into the group strategic targets for the medium term. Before we get straight to the numbers, I want to very briefly highlight the principles that guide our financial strategy, the core pillars that underpin everything we do. First of all, earnings growth with financial resilience. We have managed to deliver a robust EBITDA growth over the years, and we've done it while keeping our balance sheet very strong. That gives us the flexibility to pursue opportunities decidedly, even in volatile markets without compromising, of course, our long-term stability. Second one, the disciplined capital allocation. We prioritize our investments where we see the highest returns. That is especially on the side of renewable energy and metallurgy, while also we leverage the synergies, which are very strong among our business units. Third, a very clear commitment to our shareholder returns. Our consistent and growing dividend reflects not only strong cash flow generation, but also our confidence in the long-term profitability of our model. All these 3 pillars are the foundation of our financial track record and our outlook, of course. Let me now walk you through our financial evolution. You will see on this page that this is divided into 3 key phases. First one, 2016 to 2019. This was a period of strategic consolidation, a period of groundwork, I would say. During those 3 years, our revenue grew steadily from EUR 1.2 billion to EUR 2.3 billion, driven by the integration of our businesses into a unified corporate structure by implementing our first big transformation called Big One. And of course, initial growth in energy, retail and generation. Our EBITDA in that period increased from EUR 222 million to EUR 313 million, supported by various synergies between our Energy and metallurgy operations, and this reflected exactly improved efficiency, scale and cost discipline across the board. The net income for 2016 to 2019 rose from EUR 34 million to EUR 145 million fueled by basically margin expansion, improved tax efficiencies and better capital structure management. This phase was the phase that exactly laid the operational and financial foundation for what was to come. Next phase, 2020 to 2021, a period that despite the global pandemic, we demonstrated agility and resilience. In 2022, our revenues dipped to EUR 1.9 billion, but quickly rebounding to EUR 2.7 billion in 2021 as we already begin to see the energy demand recovering and the commodity prices rose. The EBITDA remained stable in 2020 and then increased to EUR 359 million in 2021, an increase of nearly 14% as we began seeing the benefits of our integration strategy and improving market conditions. Net income rose from EUR 129 million to EUR 162 million, thanks to strong aluminum prices, proactive hedging and prudent cost control. This was the phase where we position ourselves for the explosive growth that followed. And what that happened, that happened on 2022 to 2024. This period marks a real step change in our performance. The revenue more than doubled in 2022 to EUR 6.3 billion, driven by record energy prices, increased power generation and significant expansion in our renewables and EPC activity. Even as prices normalized in 2023 and 2024, we sustained very high levels, finishing 2024 at EUR 5.7 billion. EBITDA broke through the EUR 1 billion mark, climbing from EUR 822 million in 2022 to EUR 1.1 billion in 2024, reflecting not just higher volumes, but also stronger margins from our high-efficiency assets and renewable projects. Most notably, net income from EUR 466 million in 2022 increased to EUR 615 million in 2024, and that was driven mainly by margin expansion, efficient capital allocation and of course, our integrated energy metal strategy that allowed us to weather volatility and capture upside. So across those 8 years, in terms of compound annual growth rate, we have managed to deliver 21% in our turnover, 22% in our EBITDA and a really impressive 43% in net income. And this performance is not just about numbers. It's about a business model that works, a market that values our capabilities and a team that consistently executes. Let's go now to the next slide that illustrates the strength of our EBITDA growth over time, breaking it down by segment and showing how we are positioned to nearly double our EBITDA again over the medium term. Let's start on the left, where you can see that in 2020, we have reported EUR 350 million in EBITDA. This was a solid baseline year that already reflected our integrated model and operational discipline. We have reached EUR 1.1 billion in 2024, more than tripling in just 4 years. Let's now have a closer look at what's been driving that exceptional performance in our Energy segment, which has been the single largest contributor to our EBITDA growth since 2020. Back in 2020, energy EBITDA stood at EUR 173 million. By 2024, that figure had more than quadrupled to EUR 753 million, a reflection of both structural investments and tactical execution. We break this down into some key value drivers. Of course, the big inflection came from generation of electricity and renewables, which now account for the lion's share of energy EBITDA. Generation EBITDA grew driven by added capacity on the one hand and of course, higher load factors. Margins also improved meaningfully due to secured long-term gas contracts that shielded us from volatility and enhanced spreads. And in renewables, EBITDA grew driven by our expansion in installed capacity and the asset rotation strategy, of course. Overall, what you're seeing here is the evolution of our energy platform from a regional utility to a fully integrated capital-efficient and margin-accretive portfolio, one that's very well positioned for long-term value creation through renewables and flexible thermal generation. Our Metals segment has demonstrated exceptional resilience and strategic value, doubling its EBITDA from EUR 136 million back in 2020 to EUR 297 million in 2024 despite market volatility. Aluminum drove this growth with prices rising sharply, while physical premiums in Europe also surged due to regional supply shortages, boosting our realized prices well above LME averages. We responded with smart operational execution by expanding the recycled aluminum output to enhancing cost efficiency and ESG alignment. And throughout the energy crisis in Europe, while others were curtailing output, we were able to run our smelter at full capacity. That's thanks to the strategic advantage of our in-house power generation, which insulated us from extreme price volatility and allowed us to preserve margins even in a high-cost environment. Alumina also contributed steadily. We are now a refinery near full capacity at a low cost. Our internal use of alumina let us profit from higher third-party prices, while margins held firm despite energy inflation, thanks to cost controls and flexibility. And in 2023, we closed the loop by acquiring the Imerys bauxite mines, securing upstream feedstock and completing vertical integration across the value chain. Together, alumina and aluminum drove stable earnings with strong pricing, margin protection and supply security. And because of this strategic positioning, the Metals segment continues to play a vital role in the overall EBITDA mix contributing around 1/3 of group profitability in 2024 with structurally stronger margins than we had at the beginning of the period. Now let's look forward what will happen 2024 onwards. Our midterm organic growth plan targets an EBITDA of around EUR 2 billion, essentially doubling again from current levels. What we expect? In the Energy segment, we expect continued strong momentum driven by multiple levers. A key contributor will be the ongoing development and strengthening of our Southeast European integrated utility platform. This will be supported by further investment in the expansion of our global renewables portfolio. We are also enhancing our digital and data center capabilities, which will unlock further synergies within the energy transition space and support long-term competitiveness. Within the Metals segment, we anticipate significant growth across a number of strategic initiatives. This includes the replication and expansion of our highly successfully integrated aluminum model. We are also entering new high-value verticals such as the gallium production, where we will leverage our project delivery capabilities and advanced metallurgical R&D expertise. In parallel, we are capitalizing on our decades of experience in defense metallurgy and specialty applications. Perhaps most notably, we're scaling up proprietary technology in the recovery of valuable metals from industrial residue, a breakthrough that is expected to reinforce our sustainability credentials. In infrastructure and concessions, we are focusing on the expansion of our platform and the pursuit of value-accretive infrastructure projects. These initiatives will be carefully structured to derisk delivery and ensure sustainable returns. By the time we reach that EUR 2 billion mark, our EBITDA mix will be very well balanced. Beyond the base plan, we also see considerable upside from organic growth in targeted areas as well as selected M&A opportunities. These are expected to further strengthen our position and could push total EBITDA beyond the EUR 2 billion mark over the medium term. We will continue with our capital investment outlook, our CapEx, focusing mainly on energy and metals. We are executing a focused high-impact investment plan of approximately EUR 2.5 billion over 4 years with a clear tilt toward growth. As you can see, our invested capital over the next 4 years will be evenly allocated between the 2 main segments. Metals investments will account for 40%, reflecting a strategic emphasis on growth initiatives, primarily in circular metals and defense. The majority of the remaining capital expenditure will continue to support the Energy segment with a strong focus on expanding our renewables portfolio and flexible generation assets. Importantly, 84% of this CapEx is growth focused with only a small share allocated to maintenance. This reflects exactly our confidence in scalable high-return opportunities that strengthen our earnings base and reinforce long-term value creation. Now stay with me. This is a heavy CapEx program. It's EUR 2.5 billion for the next 4 years, starting from this year, 2025 to 2028. If you look back in our historicals, you will find out that the previous 3 historical years between 2022 and 2024, we have spent another EUR 2.5 billion. And on top of this really heavy investment plan, we have also to serve the payment of our taxes, our interest and of course, of our dividends. But the important here is that all these needs will be entirely covered from generated free cash flows and of course, our available cash balance. We expect really comfortably to exceed all these requirements. While we retain the flexibility to access debt markets should the need arise, these are currently no plans to do so. We expect gross debt and leverage ratios to slowly decline over the next period, in line with our commitment to maintain a robust financial position. We can now deep dive in the CapEx spending of the Energy segment. The Energy business will continue to be a core growth engine, underpinned by a disciplined and high return investment strategy. Between 2025 and 2028, we are planning to invest approximately EUR 1.3 billion with the majority directed to renewables and retail, reflecting the maturity and success of our integrated model. While recurring CapEx trends lower post 2024 as expected, following, of course, the prior infrastructure build-out, the focus firmly shifts to high-yield growth investments. From a technology perspective, nearly 70% of the plan supports renewables, including net flows of our robust asset rotation model that already this year is closing its first big successful cash cycle. On the Metals business, the Metals business is entering its next phase of growth, driven by the deployment of new and advanced technologies across the value chain as well as targeted capacity expansion. Between 2025 and 2028, we plan to invest approximately EUR 970 billion -- million, excuse me, not billion, with a strong focus on growing our new proprietary technology and scaling our core alumina and aluminum platforms while expanding into high-value segments. The majority of spend supports growth investments, particularly in circular metals, defense, raw material security and downstream capabilities. One of the largest initiatives is the planned expansion of our alumina capacity from 865,000 tonnes to approximately 1.3 million tonnes, which will strengthen integration, increase export potential and support margin enhancement across the chain. We are also ramping up large-scale metal recovery, developing a new gallium production line and significantly expanding our defense-related metallurgical activities, which are seeing strong demand and high barriers to entry. Now in terms of recent market developments, we wanted to underline that we have continuously proven our ability to succeed even during difficult macro environments. We are very closely monitoring the recently announced U.S. tariffs, and we want to reassure investors that the direct impact on our operations is negligible. As disclosed in our latest financials, 0% of our revenues originate in the U.S. with our business concentrated in Greece, 51% in terms of turnover, Europe, 36%; and other international markets. This geographical footprint means we are structurally insulated from the first order effects of these tariffs. While we recognize potential indirect impacts through global supply chains or commodity prices, Metlen is very well positioned to manage them. Our operations are supported by a diversified supplier base, long-term input contracts and robust hedging strategies across key commodities and currencies. We have also demonstrated consistent resilience in previous macroeconomic challenges, including the European debt crisis, the energy crisis and the pandemic emerging stronger each time. Our solid financial position, disciplined risk management and flexible business model gives us confidence that Metlen will continue to perform strongly despite external headwinds. At this point, I have to tell you no more numbers from me. My colleagues keep saying in the previous days, you are going to drive everybody crazy in the room. You are the fifth presenter. So don't do it. I hope that this has not happened. As you have seen throughout today's presentation, our story is one of strategic clarity, a disciplined execution and transformational growth. We have tripled our EBITDA since 2020, more than doubled our revenue and expanded across energy, metals and infrastructure, all while maintaining financial resilience with a clear commitment to shareholder returns. We are not just growing, we are growing the right way with a high-quality asset base, integrated business model and focused investment plan. We are unlocking value across every segment. And with a strong foundation and visibility into our pipeline, we are now positioned to double EBITDA again over the medium term. In short, Metlen is built for resilience and geared for growth. We have delivered through disruption, outperformed in transformation, and we are entering the next chapter from a position of strength. Our strategy is clear. Our execution is proven and our ambition is high. With strong momentum and a future defined by opportunity, we are confident in our ability to continue delivering sustainable value for our shareholders, our partners and the communities we serve. Thank you very much for listening me. We look forward to continuing and building a trusted partnership. At this point, I will invite Christos Gavalas to go you through the last part of today's presentation prior we proceed to the Q&A session. Thank you.
Good afternoon. Can you hear me? I hope so. No? Should be on. All right. So thank you for coming. Thank you for connecting dear friends, colleagues, associates. Very happy and honored to be here today. Such a significant day for Metlen, such a move that we're expecting long term to happen. I'm going to be really short not to take more of your time. It's just going to be a few minutes and 3 issues that I would like to go you through. The first has to do with capital discipline. The way that we find the capital, the way that we maneuver through all the things that has been discussed by the business leaders. Second is whatever has to do with the share capital structure, the way that we have performed the policies that we have applied. And last but not least, the London consideration. So we have discussed extensively about the black bars that has to do with the rescaling of our profits, the reshaping of the group, the diversification of where we're doing business, how we're doing business, and the energy plus metals mix throughout the year. So EUR 300 million become EUR 1 billion and something. And this has supported by the light color, I don't know what the color is exactly, but this light color is the CapEx throughout the year. So it has been enough. But -- and this has been sent into investments in assets and projects. And this has actually resulted in that profitability. So the interesting part about that graph is that even though that we have spent throughout that decade or so, all these monies, leverage stood at a pace below 2. Below 2 that allowed us in order to upscale and upgrade the rating of the group 3x, I mean, from BB- to BB recently. You probably know that we are rated by Fitch and S&P. And obviously, next step according to the policy applied and of course, anything that has to do with the discipline in order not to go beyond that level will drive us through the next chapter, the next phase, the next target that we have set, which is obviously investment grade. At the same time, 2 things to add is that, obviously, throughout that period, we have distributed hefty dividends, but more important is that we have never asked any capital raise from the equity market. It's just earnings. It's just cash conversion, and it's the ability for us to tap the markets wherever we operate and always to act under the discipline that allowed us to be always below 2x and enable us down the road to get into the investment-grade area. So this is the evolution of the capital. So we've said what we spent. Let us see what we have and let us see what the ammunition is, what the contribution, the composition of this capital that we are having. Yes, I've been in the company since 2001. It's not there. I mean, it's history. When I came, the total lines were EUR 100 million. Right now it's EUR 11.5 billion. So this has been the ride. This has been the access. This has been what we have tapped throughout but this is just a glance from 2020 to 2024, more than 3x in the recent years. That has come as a result of rescaling the profitability, reshaping the credit, having the footprint elsewhere and having, by definition, our activities into 2 global sectors, energy and metals. So the result is not only that we have more than tripled the capital that has been extended, and this is something that I have to thank you very much all my dear bank friends to Metlen. In fact, we do bank wherever we do business. I have to thank on behalf of Metlen what the Greek banking system did for us, how that has supported our growth till a day. But obviously, from that point onwards, we have been very much supported by the global markets, by the international markets, by the markets that we are doing business. So we bank locally. This is what we do from Australia to Chile to Canada to U.K. to Africa, everywhere we go into many type of different, say, products. This is what we are doing, and this is what we are trying to get to 55%, which is the number or the percentage that currently is provided by the international markets to Metlen. And this is the power that we are having, not only in order to operate, not only in order to absorb all the volatility, the uncertainties, the working capital swings, but at the same time to grow. Obviously, this is essential for us to have it as a buffer, as you can see on the right part of that page that currently, even though that we have spent so much, even though that we have grown so much, even though that we have rescaled the size of the group, EUR 3 billion or in excess of EUR 3 billion is the cash buffer that we are having -- sorry, the liquidity buffer because cash is 1/3, 2/3 are in unutilized lines coming from everywhere. And this is something that I have to share with you that it's more than 90 financial institutions wherever we are and of course, the capital markets. And by saying so, let me get into that slide that says which is the ladder of the maturities that we have derisked the risk of being able to service to provide all the necessary funding in order to refine our indebtedness when it comes. It goes beyond 2030, as you see. It's multicolored. So many different sources are coming in. You know that we have tapped the market of -- the capital market since 2017. It has been the year that we have been rated initially. We are having 3 now live bonds. The last one that was issued last October, it was a green 750 5-year at 4%. And that I have to thank everyone that have assisted us on doing so. That was a crossing into the IG universe. In fact, I mean, the tight pricing, this is what indicates, meaning that, yes, we did have the ESG in place. We did have the high yield in place. We did have the Greek support, which was huge, but this was the crossing to the IG. And it's something that I guess now onwards, it's a legacy, but we're going to build on for the years to come and support furthermore the growth that we anticipate to have. The right-hand side graph is showing where the secondary market is trading, which is very tight. It's through the high yield is well within the IG. And this is an indication of how the market sees Metlen and its prospects. A few words on the stock. I'm not allowed to say many. Probably you know more than I do on that one. Huge inflows in the last 5 years, huge. Greece becoming IG, us triple the size, us getting into 40 countries, as Vivian said before, you count them? I mean, right. Okay, 42 now and counting. And -- but the interesting part is that a part of the price appreciation that you are all aware is that the liquidity is there. It's by far the most liquid stock, nonfinancial stock in the Athens Stock Exchange. And this is another reason why we do have this performance, in fact. On the right-hand side, this is the value proposition going through the growth to the value proposition that has to do with the returns. The returns that comes from the dividend payout and the dividend payout is very stable, it's consistent, it's fair according to where the money market levels are. You may see the returns according to where the money market is. And in absolute terms, it has been EUR 600 million in the last 3 years. I mean, it's a big number, right? So this is what we have done, and this is the proposition that we can send out into the market. Closing with the stock, thankful for the attention, thankful for the research coverage and very happy that we have attracted the attention of the global market and research writing for the story, asking us about the outlook. And as we speak, I guess that we are expecting many more to join. Last one, which is a bit catchy, is the share capital structure that has to do with 78% free float, right? I mean, 78% free float. And out of it, 57% in institutional investors, global institutional investors. So I guess that thanks to the IR team, they have done a great job. They have sent the story where it should be sent but the story is something that it's easy for you to say, right? So this is what we've done, 50% the last 3 years, increase of that particular percentage. I mean, 50% from 2021, 2022 to now, which is the stake of the global institutional investors. This is honoring us. This is something that makes us happy, and this is something that enable us to look forward for the time to come. Now a few words about our consideration to London. We think that the time has come, right? I mean we've talked about capitalization. We've talked about profitability. We've talked about where we are doing that business. I mean, half of what we're doing is outside of Greece. We've talked about who is having the stock, 57%. We've talked about who is giving the money to Metlen now, which is 55% of the global market. So I guess that we are -- that we have done some good steps towards being able right now to go into the next step. We have already adopted since 2018, the U.K. codes of governance. And last but not least, we do operate into by definition, global sectors. It's not Greek sectors. It's energy and metals. So by saying so, let us get into the last part, which is the procedural that has to do with the establishment of a U.K. company when the time will come for us to obtain all the necessary, say, permits. We're going to launch a selling trade offer for acquiring SA shares, I mean, the Greek company shares. And upon successful completion of that process, we're going to be ready to have a plc listed in London primarily and in Athens as well. Thank you so much. Thank you for being here. It's easy part for me to ask Mr. Evangelos to join and come again as a closing remark. Thank you so much.
I'm thrilled. What is it all I had -- it's been a long way, as you understand, within a space of 2 hours, we have my colleagues and myself have tried to describe life journey. It's not so easy, but still it's 2-plus hours. So I guess I have to be short because we have Q&As afterwards. So we've done it in the past. We've done it before. And I can assure you we can do it again. I was reading the page -- Yes. It says Metka acquisition, first ever hostile takeover in the Athens Stock Exchange. I don't know if any other hostile takeover has taken place since then actually. I think it was interesting because at that time, I started to buy shares of Metka. It was a very good company, silent power. The stock was sleepy. It was a good company. At that time, there were no rules to declare your percentage about 5%, 10%, only if you pass 50%. So we start to buy Metka in the autumn '97. By spring, '98, that percentage was 15%. The price started to move, as you can realize, quite forcefully up. And then in the summer, for those of you that have a strong and long memory, we had the Russian crisis, if you remember, and all the stock exchanges collapsed, including Greek. At that time, I remember we had an 8% up or down range of the stock of any stock within 1 day. So a broker was calling me every 10 minutes and they say, it's 100,000 shares on the floor, 8% minus. Shall we buy? Buy. Buy this, buy that, buy this, buy that. But at the end of the summer, when I came back from holidays, the percentage was 25%. But nobody knew that. It's a very good and secretive broker. The control of the company belong to 3 guys. One of them had 23% of the shares. So my broker was a friend his, he called him to his office and myself as well. So I go there. I met the guy, hello, very nice to meet you, afraid of you very much to say, me too, sit down, and he goes like, so what are we here for and my broker says, we are here I would like to introduce you the major shareholder of your company. You said what? I said major shareholder of your company. He didn't exactly understand, he was a little -- overages to say... And anyway, it took him a few minutes to recover, this is okay what do you want? I say -- I want your stake. I remember that time the price has gone from 1,000 to 10,000. I want your stake at 10,000. He says I have to speak with my family, I don't know and I have to see -- okay, you have 2 days. And of course, it's up to you to sell me your share. But if you don't, your wealth will be reduced down to 1,000 again because I'll get rid of the shares. I only want control of the company. So in 2 days, came back and said, can you please give me 12,000. We finished the deal. We bought more shares and the price at that time, which was middle of 1998 went to 56,000 per share. If I remember the figures, it's a long time. We sold 6% to the market, and we took back all the money we had spent to buy the 50% for those of you but says something about how we feel about M&A. I never want to buy market because I'm pleased and happy with what I have. I will only buy when the price is right, the fit is correct, which is the most important. We are not a general conglomerate. We are not a private equity. We're a business. That's why all these years, we have not done any major acquisition other than aluminum, which is another interesting case that has also been written in the history books because of the price that we paid and because of the money that has been made in the last 20 years. So bold moves then. We've been through that a few times. I'm sure you understand that brought us to a number of leading positions. Now, I would add here, I don't know why this is not that we are becoming -- without wanting to, we are becoming a leading infra and concession as well. How that happened? Interesting. During the Greek bankruptcy situation, as I said before, between 2010, 2020, we had through Metka that we had bought in the hostile acquisition, we had a construction arm. But we left Greece and did a lot of business overseas with good results and good money. When the new democracy party came to power and situation in Greece was being normalized, I get a call from the Prime Minister to go and meet him, which I did, of course. And he said to me, we are very happy about you made out in the crisis. I have a request. what's the request? We are going to need all the construction capacity that we can amass in Greece to fulfill the projects that are coming. We are a strong company. I know you've done very well outside Greece in this sector, but please move a part of this sector in Greece now. We need it. And we did it. And that's why -- that's how it restarted, and it's not the main business. But thanks to Dinos and [indiscernible], who is the Chairman of Metka. It's a great do, and they have a very good team. They are actually and slowly without a lot of fuss, they are becoming a very strong company of its own. So to put things right, evolving for what's next. You've heard a few things about the first 4, but I think the last 3 is the most interest for all of us. Our pioneering position in the circular metals with our proprietary technology and new plants to process residues, waste and all this stuff is starting with 3 plants, out of which one is going to be very big. The success of the existing pilot plant is unbelievable. It's about 100% of what we had hoped, not 99%, 100%. When the lab tests were completed and they reached the 100% success in the lab, we have had long discussions how we move forward. And then the [indiscernible] with his vast experience in the metals industry. He said to me, we have to have a pilot plant. You have to spend some money and make a pilot plant because it's different to be successful in the lab. It's very different to be successful in the plant. That started, the plant started operations in last December. And now it can produce metals at 99% content, metal oxides, copper oxides, zinc oxides and others. And this pilot plant, all we have to do now on the next one is just to make it bigger. We have nothing to change. All the technology from R&D is in there, not much to add, only improvements in efficiencies and capacities. Very interestingly also, the residues and the tailings and everything, they contain small amounts of all or many of the critical raw materials we're talking about. A few grams per tonne of residue can be hugely valuable as long as you can get it. I know some of you will say, well, it's a lot of people have tried to do it before. It's another attempt. Is it -- do you know any practice in the past or any effort that managed to separate iron from nickel because I don't and has never happened. But we did it. And there's so much ferronickel residue out there waiting to be separated and take the pure nickel out of it. Not much to say about defense. This is our business that we do for the last 25 years. We have excellent relations with all the big names in the industry. They all want to work with us. The messages from the European Commission is that they want industries from the various state members of the EU to have cooperations and work together for the next day in European defense. It's coming very normal. What is new is that we are expanding this to a total of 5 different plants within a big area, including the existing one, where we can operate on 5 different defense programs. That is going to start very soon, not by the announcement of cooperations with other firms, but by real business. Last is the example of gallium. Not much to say about gallium. We've heard so much about it. I was reading the FT, on the weekend FT again about gallium. Not much to say. We are there. We are already having pilot production. [ Mr. Séjourne, ] Vice President of the European Commission. He came to see us. He was very happy. I think -- I hope the [indiscernible] does not stay with his happiness, but it will be more supportive because you know how the EU is. They're very happy. Let's talk about it. Let's have a meeting next month. And then next month, we have the meeting in Brussels and then it's a great idea. In the next 6 months, we are going to make a resolution about we go ahead. And then after 3 years, we have a critical list of raw materials. I think there are 36. That's it. A very interesting critical list. But if you want to get involved and spend money, that's your problem. I named it the critical raw material. That's all I can do. So I hope this will change. I hope many things in the EU will change, by the way. But all I want to say at this stage is that on the line, it's also scandium and germanium. Why am I talking about this specifically is because we hold the stock, the stock is captive, the stock is ours, we are only in the final stages of the R&D for this particular 2 metals. So we move -- what can I say about this? That's where we are, that's where we want to be in the medium term which are defined as a period of 3 to 5 years. How this is going to happen? We are going to strengthen our core businesses, the core segments, as I said before; number two, we're going to exploit a know-how in the new areas that I've just described, and we are going to support massive organizational changes. I repeat, that's written over there that these figures do not include in any M&A. I think we are more ready than ever for an upscale M&A. And we have plans on this one as well. And Christos has enough cash from what you said or I hope so anyway. Never in my life have I been an arrogant person. And as we grow bigger and bigger, the more humble I become, that's how I think people should evolve, and that's how I think people should lead by example. But I cannot, but admit that this company has been and it still is a case study which combines growth in value, it has the characteristics of growth in the figures, but the value company for its -- the nature of its activities. So it's a combination of growth and value. It's a company that is paying very interesting dividends throughout and is delivering capital gains to shareholders unthinkable when it entered the stock exchange back in 1995. It is spending big amounts on CapEx year in, year out, but without ever asking money from the shareholders, how we do it with a combination of free cash flows and great financial engineering by the treasury team. I don't think there is a treasury team with such skill like the one we have honestly. It's been an interesting last 3 or 4 months with a lot of things happening and a lot of noise and news coming out of our company. So some people have said to me that you are doing this ahead of your Capital Markets Day in London, far from, the most interesting news is coming next, stay tuned. And yes, another thing that people say to me is that, you want to go into the FTSE 100, that's why. I say it to you, and we will talk about it again in next Capital Market Days, if anybody knows me a little bit and things that I will be done with the FTSE 100 entry knows zero about me, nothing. The ambition is to go very much up the ladder in FTSE 100, not to enter the FTSE 100, remember me one day. For those of you that like numbers, they wrote it for me, I have to tell you. In the medium term, our company will have 18 different plants, factories. A combined 3x bauxite mine, 95 units of energy production, excluding the thermal and 8 stand-alone large storage batteries. That is a big, big company. And the figures are very conservative, but better conservative. That's more appreciated by the community I think. Thank you very much.
Thank you very much. I hope you are doing well. I know that we cut off the break, but we're doing great with time. So we will try in the next 45 minutes to answer all the questions that we have. There are questions here, and there are also questions that they have come online. So if the panelists are ready, Mr. Chairman, can we start? We can start taking questions here and then take it online. Mr. [indiscernible] is here in case if we need any help. Okay, let's go. I cannot see very clearly. So you will help me [indiscernible] where to go. I will ask you to speak loud. First of all, say your name, your title, the company you come, and if you can also stand up, we can see you.
This is Ioannis Masvoulas, Morgan Stanley. Congratulations on the presentation. I'd just like to say all the best for the next growth phase. First question on metals. You've been urging the European Commission to focus on self-sufficiency for quite some time and to support the heavy industry. Things are moving in the right direction ever so gradually. But my key question here is commodity prices are inherently volatile. You came up with an EBITDA target from both gallium and your circular metals projects. Can you perhaps talk about the cost competitiveness of these processes? Are they going to sit on the first quartile of the cost curve, like you've managed to achieve with alumina and aluminum. And also, can you talk about the level of project returns or IRRs you're expecting from these projects? And then the second question on defense. Looking at the EBITDA and CapEx figures you provided, those suggest some very attractive returns. So the question here is what proportion of the EUR 150 million EBITDA have you already secured. And what's the duration of these contracts closer to 5 years or closer to 50 years?
Thank you very much, Mr. Masvoulas. EU CRM, as President of the European Metals organization, EUROMETAL I have tried very hard for the CRM initiative. I'm happy it was finally introduced. I have to tell you that until the last minute, aluminum was either in or out. So you can understand what kind of forces play the role as if you are in the list, and you can go in and cash the money. There's no money so far. So as you said, CRM it's just what it is. It's a list of critical raw materials at the moment. Let's hope that ultimately, they will put some money on the table. Your question is very focused and very correct. One of the reasons why big companies have abstained from working on critical raw materials and left the initiative to the Chinese is exactly the cost and the fear how they are going to face a flood of Chinese material if ever comes to that. That was one of the main hindrance of big FIDs by big companies. And it's understandable. One of the things that we asked from EU is to establish a floor on the pricing of these critical raw materials. I'm not extremely positive that this will be accepted. They have other things in the mind, especially defense at the moment. So the only solution to get into this business if you're going to go in and stay and not lose your CapEx or lose your time or spend resources is to be sure that your cost is Chinese style cost or lower. I can assure you that on the gallium we don't mind the flood of Chinese gallium because our cost is lower. That is the only way one should enter this landscape. Otherwise, it's hugely risk and speculative, which is not the nature of our business. On defense, defense traditionally is a business with high margins, the skills, the experience and the knowhow required to do advanced defense business is paid by the customer as well as the prompt deliveries and the agreement on the conventional parts of the contractual terms of the contract. The European averment is starting now. So I'm not in a position to tell you today how this is going to play out and whether the contracts are going to be for 2 years, 5 years or 10 years, as you say. Usually the contracts, for example, I'll give you an example for a contract that we are going to definitely seek to get with our partners, the Iveco of the Agnelli Group in Italy. The renewal of the Greek military fleet, which is I don't know, it's 5,000, 7,000 vehicles, whatever -- 15,000 vehicles, okay. 15,000 vehicles is going to be probably a 10-year contract, 15-year contract, something like that. This is the nature of this particular contract. Other contracts are maybe shorter. But I can't say more because I don't know how you -- what kind of rules they're going to establish on defense.
Okay. Let's move to the second question.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX from Optima Bank. Thank you for the presentation and also congratulations on your performance over the years. So my first question has to do with London listing. I can see that we are very close to that target, considering your market cap at this point. So the question is, what do we expect in terms of inflows -- passive inflows after the listing. And the second question has to do with the electricity utility business. How do you manage to improve your profitability and performance in the business despite the adverse environment in -- with volatile electricity prices over the years.
Utilities do not necessarily make money with high prices. Utilities sometimes go under with high prices. As we saw just only 2 or 3 years ago, do you want me to tell you how many big utilities were either went bankrupt or were nationalized. I can, if you want. The problem is, you have low electricity prices in the market. Yes.. What's your mix of raw materials? You have enough renewables on the low-cost, say, LCOE EUR 28. Do you have 63% efficient gas generation. Do you have access to long-term material? So before I answer you this question, you have to tell me what kind of utility is this and what are they doing. But what I can definitely tell you is that low prices does not mean low profitability for utilities and high prices mean high profitability. It doesn't work like this.
And there was another question, I think, right, there were 2. There was another one for the passive funds and how...
How do you manage the volatility with these prices?
And also, I asked you what do you expect after the London listing for the stock in terms of passive inflows, liquidity, et cetera.
Sorry. I'll tell you what, I'll never make comments on our stock. Never did I for the last 30 years. I cannot tell you if our stock is cheap, if our stock is expensive. If the passive flows are going to push up the price or the outflows from emerging funds are going to push down the price. I'm not an expert at this. People in this room who know this business much better than I do, and I consultant them, then I hear them what they have to say, and I do what they tell me, I'm not an expert. And we are not going to the LSE to see our share price going up. That's for sure. If that was the case, that would be a terrible mistake. We have to concentrate on doing our business right. And then the market sooner or later will either reward you or punish you. We are very much aware that there are no jokes here. If you mislead the market, you are done.
Okay. Let's go to the next question.
What about these questions that I have here anyway. Do you want me to go through them?
No, no, no. Those questions are from the online. So we will first respond to the ones that are there in the room and then.
Fani Tzioukalia from Euroxx Securities here, Mr. President and Chairman. Sorry, one question on my end. First of all, thank you for the presentation and congratulations on your recent sale of Chilean assets. It's quite a sizable transaction, more than 10% of your market cap. Would it be possible to have any color on the margins around this transaction? And also any potential upcoming deals from your asset rotation portfolio that we should expect in the coming months or in the medium term?
It was a good business. Let's put it this way. It was a good business. It was a difficult business, but it was a good business. And what is more important is that our shareholders and our stakeholders have been assured that the asset rotation model on which we have insisted all along the way, are realizing that there is still space in the renewable sector, which has been battered so badly in the last or 2. Well, we're not all the same. I think we know this asset rotation model. We have done dozens of corporate actions on asset rotation. We know it well, and we will pursue it further, wait for the next one. It's also very big.
Okay. Let's go on this side now.
This is Krishan Agarwal from Citigroup. Congratulations on the strategy which you have put forward. I have 4 questions, so probably I'll take one by one. The first question is on the impending London listing. So you're coming in a bigger market from a relative set of small market and the growth plans are also heavy on the metal side. So my question is, how would you like to position the stock or the story to the new set of investors. If I say that, okay, you're going to position as an advanced metal producer with a net long position in energy, would that be a right proposition?
Okay. It's difficult to define the split so accurately, as you say. And I remind you for the fifth time that, that analysis does not include any M&A. So a sizable M&A may change the split from one day to another. I expect -- and I think you could understand from the way I spoke before that I am extremely bullish for our circular economy and circular metals business. I expect a lot from this segment. Therefore, I expect the metal side of the business to increase substantially in the medium term. Again, the EUR 220 million that we have put is a conservative figure. But please bear with me. I will feel much better when the medium term comes and I come here with EUR 300 million or EUR 350 million than to come here with EUR 100 million.
My second question is on the circular metal. I mean you've been talking very bullish on this new business venture. So once you get into the processing the residue, how would you position the business as in, is it going to be a stable margin business or you would retain the pricing leverage, both on the upside and the downside in that business?
Being in the commodity markets for decades, I know the volatility. I've been through it a few times in my professional life. All I can tell you at this stage is that the cost level of the circular metal, it is way below the primary metal, way below, so I would sleep at night. When the primaries, they have massive problems, I would make money because I'm not paying for concentrate and I'm not paying for electrolysis either, way below.
My last 2 set of questions is, one is on the cash flow. So the existing metal business and the existing energy business, they're going to make kind of stable cash flows to support the growth. When you discuss about the CapEx, can you also discuss the trajectory of the net debt from here, how that is going to evolve alongside the dilutive and the growth?
Expansion of the business on the way to the EUR 2 billion, it obviously implies a different level of turnover as well. And I hope also a different level of positive cash flows. As I said before, and as Christos can tell you a little bit more about it, please. We are very much in control of our cash flows and our ability to finance our investments. That's why we have been so conservative in our M&A activity. The last thing we want is to put our shareholders' money at risk in order to clinch maybe what is looking an interesting deal, but the risk element is too high. So Christos, if you want to add a few.
Absolutely. Thank you. So Krishan, 2 words on that. Thank you for asking. The reason why we do have this capital provided to Metlen at these terms is because we maintain that discipline. And we have this credit profile, and we are mindful that we do not have to go beyond that ever. What that means is that you know that 90% of the CapEx that Eleftheria referred to is discretionary. Not more than 100 as we speak, is the money needed in order to maintain the existing assets, nothing more. Anything else beyond that is monies that are going to be spent in order to grow furthermore, provided that we're going to keep the discipline within the levels that we have set so far. So yes, funds are there. Capital is there, provided that our policy is going to stay as it is.
My last question is on the organization. I mean organization is getting bigger, more international and probably more diverse with a lot more sectors coming in. Can you share some glimpse as in how you are repositioning the organization to support this explosive phase of growth?
Well, as I said before, on July 3, which is our AGM, June sorry, we are going to announce the specific transformation steps regarding the organization. I am fully aware, we all are that we will need a lot of improvements in the organization in order to be able to complete and achieve the targets, the so ambitious targets that we have announced here today. The good thing about this situation is that a lot of Greeks that left the country in -- during the Greek bankruptcy era, the famous brain drain are now attracted by the size and the health of our company and are coming and asking for work. And they are all very well experienced and very interesting people to get to work. So this is a plus side. But more on that on June 3. Thank you.
Thank you very much. Let's proceed to the next one.
Nikos Athanasoulias from Eurobank Equities. I have 2 questions on my side. The first one is a question that you have touched upon before. And I would like you to please elaborate why did you choose the London Stock Exchange over the New York Stock Exchange. And given the recent rule changes that enable you to choose the currency that the stock will be denominated, will you opt for the euro or for the sterling pound? And the second question is, what are your expectations for the U.K. market in the context of when U.S. exceptionalism.
So Mr. Athanasoulias your one question answers the other. We avoided the American -- the New York Stock Exchange because we had foreseen the end of the American exceptionalism. As you can probably see here. So I don't know how the future is going to play out. But I see a lot of problems in the United States. I see a lot of problems in the American society. These are minuses. But on the other hand, I can't underestimate the depth of the American economy and the talent and the technology edge and all this. But for us, as I said at the beginning in the morning, we are very much at home in London. And London for our size is very much all right. We don't have to be in New York. And we feel at home here anyway. That's important. Now from what we know, we can now trade in London either in sterling or dollar or euro. I think we have to declare this when we are accepted at the London Stock Exchange. If that is the case, don't make any mistakes because all this is new. We will remain a euro-denominated stock in the exchange. We are probably going to be the only euro or the first euro stock in the stock exchange.
Okay. Please go ahead.
Jason Fairclough, Bank of America. One somewhat simple question, I guess. Thanks very much for the presentation. It's a great story. Metlen Energy & Metals, I think, really tells people what the business is, but we've been broking the story to investors. And some people say to me, Jason, isn't this a conglomerate? They do construction, they do defense, they do concessions. So it says Metlen Energy & Metals. It is mostly energy and metals, but there's all this other stuff. So why isn't this just a conglomerate?
Thank you, Jason. I wouldn't hesitate to call our company conglomerate if it was one. Maybe your clients have a different idea about a conglomerate. In my mind, the conglomerate is an Indian conglomerate, is a Turkish conglomerate, they have grids, they have textiles. They have ports, they have cinemas. This is a conglomerate. I don't think we exactly look like that. The defense business, we're not doing guns or ammunitions, right? We are not trying metallic. We are doing very specialized metallic structures that, for example, we take the special steels, we treat them with great know-how and care. And at the end of the line, you get a Leopard tank. But this tank is going to need -- again, it's going to need other things that make defense. So specialized metal constructions for defense is different than maybe what some people have in mind when they talk about defense. Construction, as I said, has been an enabler for us at the beginning with so many plants that we do and so many of our own stuff, but it has become very successful on its own. So let's not rush to make a guess about the future of this entity as long as it is improving numbers. I think it's going to be a very interesting success. That doesn't make us a conglomerate though.
It's not.
That does not make it a conglomerate.
Okay. Any more questions here? Because I have some coming from on the line. Okay, I see a few people there.
Richard Hatch from Berenberg. Two questions. The first question, on your EUR 2 billion EBITDA guidance target range, what about margins? Can you give us a guide as to the margin you're seeking? And then secondly, on the metals recycling business, the EUR 500 million CapEx, do you think you can get any grant funding to fund some of that? And then also just on the growth of that business, it seems to be kind of a European-centric business at the moment, but you've talked about your comfort over the scale-up of it from the pilot plant. So could this become more of a global business?
On the EUR 295 million CapEx, which includes bauxite, alumina expansion and gallium, we are promised about EUR 90 million in grants. That's from Greek sources, Greek government sources, which is usual for investments of this size. For the EU, we are waiting on the phone as is usually the case with the EU. But you never know. Regarding the margins, we have to apply.
Mr. Chairman, I think the question was for the circular metals. I'm not quite sure if it was for...
Only for circular metals.
Only for circular, okay.
Not the total one. As I said before to the gentleman over there, the cost of the circular metals are way below the primary. What else can I say?
It was just -- it was a clarification whether -- I know on the EUR 296 million for the gallium and alumina project, you get some grant funding. So the question is, with the EUR 500 million project for the metals recovery from the residue, do you think you'll also be able to gain some grant funding for that? And if so, can you steer as to how much?
These are 2 different things. The EUR 295 million, as I said, we get EUR 90 million grant. Is that right? Let's go to the circular, which is a total of EUR 500 million. We know nothing of any -- we have announced the figure of the CapEx today. We know nothing if Europe or the Greek government is going to support these investments and by how much. Am I clear? Those are 2 different things, 2 different investments, please.
It's Andrew Fisher from Berenberg. Just a couple of questions on the energy side. First of all, on asset rotation, what is a sort of reasonable assumption through the plan in terms of gigawatts that you can sort of build out over the plan, medium term, 2028, whatever? And then also on the power side, could you just talk a little bit, I appreciate that you said the importance of being able to be profitable in both high and low power price environments. But could you just talk a little bit over the plan, how you're assuming the Greek supply curve sort of evolves? Obviously, you've got some retirement of some more expensive assets coming off. You've got your own obviously, capacity now sort of running all CCGTs. But also there's an evolution towards power exports to neighboring countries. I'm just wondering sort of what are you assuming about the spreads that you can capture from those very efficient CCGTs over that plan, please?
I think it was in the presentation, we had our pace, we called it at 1.5 to 2 gigawatt per year. So this is the pace that we had also in the presentation.
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Yes, yes. This is for the asset rotation as you asked.
What about the cost curve? The question is, how are you assuming the Greek supply curve evolves?
Okay. So regarding the Greek market, I would say that it was again presented. I think I took 20 minutes of your time saying all the time about volatility and how that will persist also in the future. So we really see a market that will have 2 phases during the year, a market that is very sensitive in terms of cold spells or heat waves, very sensitive in terms of combination of effects having to do with weather circumstances. So we expect the market to be highly volatile during the year. And of course, we expect the market to be also highly volatile during the day. So there's going to be headroom for operation of gas-fired plants in days where prices will be quite high during the sunset or during the morning peaks. And of course, as I said also earlier, we expect the need of flexible generating assets for the operation of the balancing market, where these assets in the future might probably get the most of the revenues.
Okay. Let's go to the next question. Over there in the middle, please.
Vassilis Roumantzis from Piraeus Securities. I would like to ask for your dividend policy, if you are going to retain the current payout ratio or you will switch to a progressive dividend policy, given that your net income based on your EBITDA projections will grow significantly.
When I said before this company is a case study because it has a very big CapEx every year and other things. I didn't expect to hear from analysts or shareholders to increase the dividend. At some point, we have to keep a balance between CapEx, healthy cash in the bank and dividends. I think our dividend policy has kept our shareholders happy for all the last few years. But the -- on the other hand, the CapEx going forward is very substantial and very promising. So our intention is to keep the dividend at the level of 35% of net profitability. And I hope our increased CapEx will not create a problem to us to keep this promise. Thank you.
All right. Should I take some questions from the platform online, so we're fair. Okay. Okay. First question. Thank you very much for the presentation and congratulations on your new transformation. It's indeed a great pleasure to see a local company thriving in a challenging environment, creating an active Greek ambassador on a FTSE 100 Index. This is Vangelis Karanikas from NBG Securities. And I have 3 questions for Mr. Chairman and the last 2, I would also love to have the input of Mr. Gavalas, if possible. One, you have impressively managed to grow Metlen from almost 0 to around EUR 6 billion without any capital raise and with just one main and a few bolt-on acquisitions. Moreover, your EUR 2 billion EBITDA target does not contain any M&A either. So my question is, is it fair to assume that the EUR 2 billion EBITDA medium-term target, it's not the end of the growth transformation plans and later may also contain some M&A, which could take you to example, the EUR 3 billion EBITDA level or even higher? Mr. Chairman, do you want to go the first one and then...
Thank you, Vangelis. You have a great name as well, by the way. So I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. I said -- I spoke about that target, and I said I am conservative, and I explained why I prefer to be conservative. I think that says it all. I do not have to add anything to that. Thank you, Vangelis.
Okay. The next question by Mr. Karanikas is one of the key investment themes has been strong growth combined with robust equity returns while maintaining leverage well under control. So my question is, could the new investment announced today derail your leverage metrics or dilute your returns? And what about future dividend plans in light of these new investments?
I guess that this has already been answered following what Krishan asked before and what Chairman said before regarding another similar question.
Okay. And I'm moving to the third one. As the end 2024, you had some nonrecourse net debt attached mainly to your renewable projects. From my understanding, upon completion of the recent deal with Glenfarne, the nonrecourse project finance debt of the project will be removed from the balance sheet. Is that correct? Could you also please let us know with which project is the remaining project finance debt related to and whether it's fair to assume that when this asset would be eventually sold, the nonrecourse debt would be removed?
So it's exactly right the way that you think of it, meaning that upon completion of Chilean disposal and collection of funds, this very much certain nonrecourse project finance is not going to be repaid. It's going to be transferred to the new owner, in fact. So he's going to buy and he's going to transfer and he's going to assume the debt. The same will apply for every -- each one of the coming assets through the asset rotation model that we are running. It's exactly similar, and it's the self-funded model that we run.
Okay. I'm going to take one last one from the platform online, and it says the following. Good afternoon. This is Ioannis Nikokyrakis from Alpha Finance, member of Alpha Bank in Greece. Mr. Mytilineos, you have always been a head of developments, always preparing the group to maneuver amidst of any adverse conditions. You have long talked and prepared your M Renewables business. It now seems it breaks in profitability record after record, and you are aiming to reach another record performance from M Renewables alone this year again. Do you now feel vindicated, Mr. Mytilineos about Metlen's unique hybrid rest model, which combines operating assets with asset rotation.
Okay. First of all, I have to say that I am proud of many segments, many business units and many divisions of the company. And I do not want to distinguish the performance of any division from where I'm sitting now. That wouldn't be fair. They're all very good and very efficient, and they work day and night for the group. However, I have to say that the performance of the M Renewables segment of the Energy Group has been outstanding under the leadership of Ioannis Kalafatas and Nikos Papapetrou, who started the business in the first place before we got together. And I want to thank him for this and for his continuing efforts in the very difficult renewable space. People who know can tell you a lot how difficult the renewable space has become. And then you can realize how difficult is to make that much money from the renewable space. Therefore, although I never would distinguished, I have to say a very big thank you to Nikos and his team in the M Renewables.
Okay. I guess we are 3 hours and 15 minutes. We did well. Before we invite you to have a nice bite and a little bit of wine and celebrate this day, with us. I would like to thank you all on behalf of CEO and the Chairman, the leadership team and all the executives that are here today and show you the last video for today, please. [Presentation]
Thank you very much. It was our pleasure.
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