Home / Transcripts / Multitude AG (0R4W) · March 11, 2021

Multitude AG (0R4W) Earnings Call Transcript

March 11, 2021

GB earnings 66 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator operator
#1

Good morning. Welcome to the Ferratum Full Year 2020 Preliminary Results Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand over to Jorma Jokela, CEO; and Bernd Egger, CFO. Please begin your meeting.

Jorma Jokela executive
#2

Okay. Good morning, everybody. Very nice to see so many people over here. My name is Jorma Jokela. I am the CEO and Founder of Ferratum Group. I am here with my colleague, Bernd Egger, our CFO, and we will walk through together with you Ferratum preliminary results from 2020. So let's start. I have to say the first one that what an amazing year. It's a very, very, very special year for all of us. What is -- what I'm very happy and proud to looking behind now that how efficient and how fast our team was executed for the different achievement what we have done over the last year. And I want to really, really big thanks for all our team, all our members, all our stakeholders from the last year. If we looked at our track record and the [indiscernible], we have a 16 years profitability track record. And again, it's coming 1 year more. We have 20 countries where we operate. We have 3 different business units. We have consumer lending, what's operated under the Ferratum brand name. It's 87% of our total revenue. We have our SME lending, what is operated under the CapitalBox name. It's 11% of our total revenue. And then we have our wallet and prime lending business, what's very small but the newest initiative there. What is the similarity all of those our different business units is that all are the pure digital plays, very easy and simple for the customer to use, and we're using the latest technology naturally there. We achieved last year EUR 230 million revenue and EUR 23 million EBIT and EUR 0.5 million net profit. The key takeaways, what I want to leave for you on this call, is practically that we ended the year at an extremely strong liquidity position. We had a very strong credit loss under control through the year. We reached a breakeven even in this hard year. And if you look at our adjusted EBIT, if you exclude the COVID-19-related impairments, it was over EUR 30 million. And the most important, we come back from the strong increased position of Primeloan sales on the H2 on the last year. Let's go to the next slide. Here, we can look at a little bit at our product part. And what is very important to understand is that we focused on our core product, prime lending, SME lending, CapitalBox and Credit Limit. At the same time, we're downshifting our strategy -- nonstrategic products, like example, Microloan and the PlusLoan, what we have earlier already communication there. If we look at PlusLoan and Microloan, those are like 2 products who were the hardest hit from the COVID as well, but it's a part of our strategy, especially the Microloan, where we have scaled down this segment and looking [indiscernible] from the -- more the Credit Limit part. Microloan is a small unsecured consumer loans, like average 1 month maturity, and it's operate in the 7 countries today, comes down 41%. PlusLoan is around EUR 1,000 loan amount, 1.5-year maturity, 18% of our total revenue, comes down 37% on the last year, operated in 8 countries. Credit Limit, what is one of our core products, I have to say that here, we can see the very solid and moderate revenue. Of course, it's a product, it's like around EUR 1,500 average loan amount. It's -- there is no exactly the maturity because it's a revolving loan. It's like a digital revolving loan. It's delivered almost 60% of our total revenue. It's down only 14%, operated in 8 countries. But when we look at this down, we have to understand a little bit more detail in the behind here that we have suspended lending in Spain and U.K., what naturally decreased our revenue there in this -- on the last year. But at the same time, we can see the very good position on the many other countries there. And this is a very moderate and strong product over the COVID time as well. SME lending is unsecured SME loan. Average loan amount is a little bit less than EUR 16,000, maturity around the 1.5 year. The share of the revenue is a little bit over 11%. It's coming down on the last year 5%. So it's more or less in the flat, operated in 6 countries. However, we have to understand that we -- the first half of the year, it's -- it was becoming really, really strong revenue [ growth ]. And at the same time, the second half of the year we limitation our [ growth ], due to risk factors, we want to be sure. And that impacted the second half of this -- the last year. However, we have a very positive view on the future on the SME lending as well. Then is the Primeloan. This is one of our newest products. It's around EUR 6,000 loan amount. It's maturity around 5 years. This is a little bit less than 2% of our total revenue. It's grown 2% on the last year. It's operated in 4 countries. And this is one of our growth drivers currently. And I have the next slide a little bit more on that one, so I propose that we move over there. So this is Slide #5, where we are. And if we look at the Primeloan, I think the first question is -- it's the Primeloan. What is the customer segment here? What we look in here? And if you look at the prime lending segment, the main customer is here, the people who have some type of purchasing or renovation plan or investment plans or they want to change their car or they have -- they want to do some type of a planned investment they [ own life ]. And when you compare, for an example, the Credit Limit or the PlusLoan, what is more like an unplanned, like impulse shopping and unplanned costs and things like that one. So this is a little bit different customer segment what we talk about over here. And this is the customer segment what was very strongly pulling over the COVID time as well because people have had more time to spend themselves in their home, and they started to invest money for the renovation and so on. And we can see this very nicely on this segment as well. So how we solve the customers' problem here is because those customers, they want to -- they need the money for their planned investments very easy and simple and pure digital way. And our solution is very simple. We practically have -- copy-paste our technology for the near prime segment, where we have worked in for 16 years. And of course, that takes all underwriting experience and implement that one and adapt for this customer segment. And we can see that this was working really well. What this brings for the Ferratum is it brings for us the more stickier customer segment. It's more stable revenue as well. And the most important is it gives us the longer and higher customer lifetime value. And if we look now on the last 6 months, you can see on the left part of the picture that we have more than doubled our lending portfolio behind this customer segment. Of course, it's still small, but it's a good indicator how well our team has operated behind here. Good. Then I want to jump to next slide, Slide #6, and let's look at a few words about our COVID-19 action plan. And I will little bit repeat myself. I'm so proud of our team and our business model that how we proved its adaptability and resilience on this type of the time. We managed and our team managed with multiple actions really well, building strong and really strong the liquidity position end of the year and shifted even more the maturity, the longer-term maturity and not just the short-term maturity. We built a strong and stable payment behavior, and reduced the cost base, significant and leaner organization sustainable way. And most important, the fourth point, our team managed to build and develop future profitability growth drivers. Like, for example, acquisition of a new business unit on the SME business or the new product line, accelerated the Primeloan sales, built a pure -- transformation, pure Agile organization structure and so on. I think I'm so proud of those what our team has done there. But I think it's time to move to the financial numbers, and Bernd, I want to hand over for you now, and let's speak after your presentation more.

Bernd Egger executive
#3

Thank you very much, Jorma. Good morning. My name is Bernd Egger, and I will run you through the preliminary 2020 financials for Ferratum. First of all, to start with, net profit is positive for the full year 2020. We think that is a fairly exceptional achievement in this quite challenging and not so easy to manage year, but I'll go into a little bit more detail on what the drivers are to familiarize you with that in more detail. Now from a revenue perspective, we had a revenue reduction of EUR 63 million, roughly, which is 21.7%. There are 2 drivers behind that: one is, obviously, the reaction pattern to the COVID-19, which is equivalent to reduced lending to protect our assets. But secondly, we reduced lending in a number of markets. And that obviously also had a quite severe impact on revenue, but the expectation here is that this will have a positive impact on profit and loss going forward. From a profitability perspective on earnings before interest and tax level, we achieved EUR 23 million, which compares to EUR 45 million in 2019. We achieved that by quite significantly reducing operation expenses by almost EUR 28 million, which is equivalent to 20% and which is extremely important to us. We have decreased impairment throughout the year by roughly EUR 12.8 million. This in turn was driven by very sensitive underwriting along the COVID-19 waves, both the initial lockdown and also during the second lockdown now. But, and this is also important, it was also driven by substantially enhanced underwriting methodologies established and developed during 2020. From a Q4 perspective 2020, positive EBIT of EUR 3.7 million. Revenue slightly below Q3. So we're talking about EUR 53 million revenue in Q4, which is EUR 2 million less than in the previous quarter, which obviously is a function of the Q4 lockdown. However, we have been less restrictive in defense actions. So we've reduced lending activities at the lower pace than first lockdown. So we have been continuing with lending, obviously, with a strong focus on quality exposures in the SME business, but above all, in the prime lending segment. 2020, full year earnings before tax also positive at EUR 1.8 million. Jorma has briefly outlined, if we disregard or adjust for the EUR 7.8 million impairment that we have built at Q1 2020, then we have an adjusted EBIT for the full year of EUR 30.7 million and net profit -- unadjusted net profit of EUR 0.5 million for the year 2020. On the next slide, I would like to briefly go a little bit more into detail on what it actually means, so the revenue development during 2020 compared to 2019. So a reduction of EUR 63 million revenue 2020 over 2019, 2 components. One is COVID-19 related that accounts for EUR 32 million, that is less aggressive lending, not at all aggressive lending, a very cautious lending, holding back extremely strong on especially the SME lending. In the first half of 2020, we have excluded a number of industries, tourism, for instance, during 2020. Second half, we've started building up the SME portfolio again. Important to note, EUR 30 million, 50% of the revenue reduction has nothing to do with COVID-19 at all. That is the impact of the suspension of spending in a number of markets, which in the future is going to save cost and has a positive impact on profitability. So adjusting for this, the adjusted revenue development for 2020 is minus 12.5%, which we think is fairly okay given the difficult circumstances throughout the year 2020. From a profitability perspective, if you have a closer look at earnings before tax, if we adjust for the foreign exchange impact, just to remind you, we had a very strong volatility in Q1, beginning of Q2. And if you also adjust for the macroeconomic impairment, EUR 7.8 million, we had a very solid operational pretax profit of close to EUR 14 million, which compares to EUR 30 million last year. A close look on the products in the segment. You are familiar with that. It is extremely important for us to see that our assumption that the Credit Limit product would be resilient during the crisis has been confirmed in full. So the Credit Limit product has been very stable and resilient and accounts for 60% of revenue in 2020. SME business accounting for close to 12%, a slightly different pattern. So still strong revenue in the first half based on the portfolio that was built up during 2019. During 2020, a little bit less revenue, but we are in growth mode gain. So in terms of loan sales, Q3 and Q4 have been better than in Q2. From an overall profitability perspective, cost perspective, we have highlighted that in the past, marketing expenses went down significantly, especially in Q2, where marketing spendings and sales-related spendings were reduced to below EUR 3 million from a normalized quarterly level of EUR 10 million to EUR 11 million. We've increased marketing spendings and sales-related spendings in the course of building up the portfolio in Q3 and Q4. So we're now in the region, in Q4, of roughly EUR 7 million, which is roundabout EUR 1 million more than in Q3, which, in turn, is related to the initiative -- to the pushing the prime lending business in the second half. Credit loss reserves. There are 2 components -- 2 aspects I would like to highlight. One, we think it's prudent and it is a conservative approach to leave the EUR 7.8 million macroeconomic impairment untouched at year-end. So we have not decided to make any adjustments to that. Our view is that from a pure financial perspective, from an actual payment behavior perspective, the performance was extremely strong. We will have a look at that in a couple of minutes. So what that means is despite the fact that the payment behavior itself would not make it necessary at all to maintain the impairment of EUR 7.8 million, we kept it at the financial year-end 2020 as well. From a balance sheet perspective, I would like to highlight that we still have a very solid equity ratio of 18.5%. Overall, total assets grew by roughly 9%. Key driver, obviously, cash. We have extremely strong liquidity position of EUR 237 million cash piled up by taking more deposits for a good reason. It is our strategy to utilize deposit funding more and more over time. So this has worked out extremely well in 2020, and this is the path, on which we are going to continue in 2021 as well. Secondly, in the first half, obviously, also loan repayments from customers. The net loan book has decreased by EUR 6.5 million during the year to EUR 360 million, but from Q2 onwards, we've seen increase. We've started building up the loan book. So from Q2 to Q4, we've increased the loan book by some EUR 25 million; from Q3 to Q4, by roughly EUR 15 million. Key driver, prime lending, super important future segment for our business strategy. From a liability perspective, I would like to highlight, you see a substantial difference in the noncurrent liabilities, EUR 64 million deposits now in the bucket of noncurrent liabilities as opposed to basically 0 in 2019. What does that stand for? We've not only increased the deposits, we have changed the term structure entirely to protect us from future negatively disruptive events, a; and b, to bring our deposit funding structure in line with the business strategy, which means longer maturities and now we have a perfect fit when it comes to deposit funding. From an equity perspective, current position close to EUR 125 million, which is a little bit roundabout EUR 3 million less than in Q3. That is essentially driven by a revaluation of deferred tax assets where we applied a more conservative approach at the year-end 2020. Nevertheless, a very solid equity ratio of 18.5%. And important from a bond perspective, covenant perspective, net debt-to-equity ratio at 2.51, which is an improvement compared to the 2.59 that we had at the end of the year 2019. Cash position, just to reiterate, very briefly, extremely strong, almost EUR 240 million in cash, a very strong cash position in all spheres of the group, basically on the bank level, in the nonbank sphere and on the consolidated view, with, I've highlighted that already, improved term structure significantly. We have utilized deposit funding for a larger proportion of our business. How have we done that? By consolidating most of the European consumer lending under the bank and with a little bit more complex structure via securitization activity that enables us to use deposits also in part for the SME business. Our ambition is to further strengthen the deposits as a source of funding, and we have no debt repayments due in 2021. One of the key topics throughout the year 2020 was asset quality. And we have tried to be very transparent throughout the full year 2020 and give our investors and all stakeholders a good feeling and a transparent understanding of our credit and asset quality. I will want to continue with this approach and show you 2 slides on asset quality. Slide #1 that shows the trend -- still improving trend. Impairment losses in relation to net accounts receivable trend is going down. That means it's equivalent to improving asset quality. Also, the trend we spoke about that in the previous sessions as well, improvement on core parameter probability of default is continuing. So also on that, we're in an extremely strong development. The forward-looking macroeconomic impairment, again, just to reiterate, that did not have any reflection in the actual payment behavior. The actual payment behavior has remained extremely solid throughout the full year 2020. This is basically the chart I've shown to you also in the past, the linear approximation of the more volatile [indiscernible] give you an understanding of what percentage of payments due are being made within 7, 14 and 30 days. What you can see is that those trend lines are all clearly upward trending, which means the percentage of payments within those periods of time is improving over time. And I would like to highlight that this statement of substantially improving payment behavior, substantially improving asset quality is not only valid till the end of the year 2020, but on this slide, we are also covering January and February 2021. So this extremely positive trend is continuing. One comment on funding structure. I've mentioned that already, no repayments due in 2021. What I would like to highlight are basically 2 things, weighted average cost of debt funding going down, currently at 2.43%, which is a direct function of the implementation of the strategy to improve the utilization of deposits. Secondly, this gives us flexibility for 2021 to obviously prepare a strategy with regard to the bonds expiring in 2022 and 2023. And I'm really happy to see that both the '22 bond and the '23 bond are back to roughly 100% price level, which increases, obviously, our flexibility going forward. With that, I would like to hand over to you again, Jorma.

Jorma Jokela executive
#4

Thanks. Really big thanks, Bernd. And like you can see the Bernd's presentation, I think it was a pretty good year in the end of the day. So I want to repeat our 4 key takeaways on today's call. So Ferratum, we finished the 2020 year with a very strong liquidity position. And naturally, that gives us lots of different opportunities to doing different activity what we like to do and deliver our strategy. Credit loss we managed to keep well under control through the year and even improve the all-time high level there, what is a really, really great achievement there from our team. Breakeven, we reached a profitability year. And then the last one that we managed to push the Primeloan lending back to growth position now. So those are the 4 key takeaways what I personally want to leave for you on today this our call. I know that there are quite many people always asking about the future. And we, [ with the parent ], we [ wanted to prepare ] for you the one slide about the future to take accounting that we don't -- did not have to give the guidance on this year and the last year as well. Natural -- it was very natural for the -- under the current circumstance. However, we want to share with you in our view, how we look on the future currently. And we have to say that we have a really positive view about the future. However, we understand risk and limitation factors from the lockdowns and different countries' government actions, the limitation in our industry or limitation in any business activity there. We understand that those are all, of course, naturally the limitation risk for us. But in general, we still stay on the positive view on the future. And if we go to look a little bit detail where we see the positive, for example, the first bullet point here, we have a strong position, what's facing the -- our view is that we -- as Ferratum, we have a really, really strong position in the market today due to the reason we have a strong quality of the portfolio, strong liquidity. We have made a successful transformation, the organization much leaner. We have reduced the cost base. So we have done lots of basic things -- actions what likely to give us opportunity to put the focus there. We have a plan to announce our long-term strategy on the Q2 with the financial guidance. I know that we does this last time in 2 years back or 1.5 years back. And we -- as our team, we had worked a lot during the last months to see how we can go back to profitability growth, and we want to share with you in our view and strategy more deep for that one. We have a plan to launch in our new brand strategy in the next few months as well, what support our Agile transformation. Like you see in the last year, we do the brand transformation on our SME business, where we changed from the Ferratum business brand to CapitalBox brand. So we want to build a more independent brand, more a brand what can really concentrate on their own customer segment much, much stronger. We see the same development for our prime lending and wallet business as well, where we will launch in the next few months new own independent brand. And we see the same in our near prime segment. And even we see this in the group level as well. What's mean that in the coming next few months, we'll be launching the Ferratum as a new brand name for our group -- parent company as well. Credit quality, we see that this will be staying in the strong in all our segments. About our mobile wallet initiative, we have broken this in -- very, very successfully in the [ Latvian pilot ] there. And we see that during this year, we will launch this in Finland and Germany with the new features and naturally the growing customer base. Prime lending segment, we see that this is the anchor as our growth driver on the coming year through the lending portfolio growing. But what is important to understand there, of course, that the revenue and profit is always this business coming a little bit delay because you have always upfront cost on the marketing cost and credit loss reservation, it's upfront there. Near prime lending, our view is that we will deliver a stable, solid profitability. Of course, we understand that our strategy is reduced on the Microloan and PlusLoan. We see that those 2 product category have a -- like a scale down there. And what's mean that we see that we're supporting the scale down from those categories on the stronger the Credit Limit part there. SME lending, we see that this acquisition, what we does on the last year, related the new business model on the SME, we start scaling this business model on our other countries as well. And this is something where we see the very future, very interesting growth opportunities for us this year. And then last one but not least, we have launching on -- this year, in '21, we are already launching our all-time first, all employee-related matching share program, where we have practically invited all our own people to be part of the shareholders of Ferratum. This program has gained lots of interest from our team and lots of demand, and we are so happy to see that one. And the first share purchasing is starting on the coming weeks there. So we are just middle of the process here. And I'm so proud to see that our people are so keen to join as Ferratum shareholders there as well. Good. So that's more or less what we want to share with you how we see on the future. And like we say, we come back into Q2 more to our longer-term strategy and, of course, the guidance on the financial targets behind there. So I want to thank for you this opportunity to go through our 2020 financial numbers and business development and share our view on the future, and I think we are ready to take the questions.

Operator operator
#5

[Operator Instructions] We have no audio questions. So I will hand back to the speakers for the web questions.

Jorma Jokela executive
#6

Great. Okay. So we see that we have kind of quite a number of the questions here and some of those are really, really long. So Bernd, maybe -- should we do another way that -- should we start with the oldest ones...

Bernd Egger executive
#7

Yes.

Jorma Jokela executive
#8

Yes, exactly. So we have a question from Stefan [indiscernible]. He has 2 questions here. The first question, do you plan to replace the bond in 2020 and '23 with the deposit or with a new bond? That's the first question. Second question, which foreign currency fluctuation had impact on Ferratum earnings? How much the risks are hedged currently? Bernd, do you want to take that one?

Bernd Egger executive
#9

Yes, absolutely. I'll start off with the bonds. So we have 2 bonds outstanding, one expiring in '22, one in '23. On the 2022 bond, we have the right to call the bond in Q4 2021. We, obviously, also have the opportunity of buying back some bonds. We are currently evaluating all options that we have, also other and new financial instruments. That is currently underway. So I do not think that we can give you a clear answer on that yet. But I would like to say a little bit -- I'll give a little bit more insight on the deposit or new bond-related question. Now the strategy behind the deposits, obviously, was to increase the utilization for 2 reasons: one is to benefit from cheaper funding; and secondly, to increase the flexibility and reduce the dependency upon capital market instruments. We've seen that during the crisis that there was a high volatility in our bond prices, going down to levels between 40 and 50. Now they are back at 100. So now we're in a very good position to actually plan and make preparatory steps for new financial instruments. So we are going to continue and maintain the strategy that we would like to have a solid funding mix. So we are not intending it necessarily replacing all bonds and all financial instruments by deposits, but certainly, we have reduced the dependency quite significantly. On whether or not we are going to exercise the call in second half of '22, that is a little bit too early to tell, but I'm quite positive that we can give you also more information on that in the Q1 call. On the second question on foreign exchange and foreign currency fluctuations. Now in the first half of 2020, we have seen extremely high volatility in a number of currencies, some of which are, in a way, usual suspects, if you will, others not so much. Since we had 2 effects: one, the COVID crisis; secondly, the oil crisis between Russia and Saudi Arabia, which also had substantially a very high impact on currencies, such as Norwegian krone that normally don't tend to be that volatile. In our specific case, the currencies that we are having open positions in is Swedish krona, Norwegian krone. Polish zloty obviously less so as we have discontinued lending in those markets. Czech koruna. So those are the main currency positions that we have. Luckily, I have to say that we have changed the strategy in terms of hedging at the beginning of 2020 already. So we have increased hedging ratios that used to be historically below 50% of the open net exposure quite significantly at the beginning of 2020, which protected us from more massive hits during the year 2020. Otherwise, the foreign exchange impact would have been much, much larger as a function of those -- of the increased volatility. We have, over the second half of 2020, increased hedging ratios further. So currently, we are -- which obviously comes at a cost, but we have increased hedging ratios further and currently are fairly well hedged in those currencies.

Jorma Jokela executive
#10

Right. Thanks, Bernd. We have next question from [ James Beaver ]. Question, how much does head count reduction save in the next year? In which [ part ] did you reduce head count? If we look at the head count, we have one backup slide here. Maybe I can, Bernd, take that one or you can help me if we you...

Bernd Egger executive
#11

Yes, absolutely.

Jorma Jokela executive
#12

If you just kind of change the slide here. Yes. Good.

Bernd Egger executive
#13

Let me do that.

Jorma Jokela executive
#14

Sorry. Maybe you do the -- change the slide, and I will...

Bernd Egger executive
#15

Yes. Just start, please, and I...

Jorma Jokela executive
#16

And so if we look at the head count reduction, we've reduced around 200 people head count on this year. Like we -- on the Q3 publication, the total saving on the head count was EUR 7.4 million on this time. And if you look in the first 9 months, the total staff cost here was around EUR 26 million. And here, we can see that in Q4, we have -- total staff cost had a likely increase that's naturally correction for the year-end correction here as well. And we have some, how you say, like lean patches there and things like that, like, onetime cost here. In general, our view on the next year is that we don't need to increase the head count significantly. So we are positioned that we can more or less run almost same head count level where we are today. We might have to, a little bit, increase some functions here, but it's quite marginal, staff cost increase, what we can see in the next year. We don't see that it's a reduce. But it's more or less, we can take a view that it's more or less a flat cost, what we show to see on the coming year. Of course, we have some extra cost coming on the 2021, like, example, matching share program. This is all the cost line what is coming in, impacting the personnel cost as well. So more or less -- you can look that it is more or less flat, likely increasing from those special costs related to our growth and [indiscernible]. When we look at more deeper where exactly head count reduction happened, we can say that, thanks to the transformation what we have done, agile transformation, we have practically reduced a lot of like middle management administration workflow because we built small teams there. So we practically built small teams where we put like technology people, marketing people, business development people and risk people. We put them together, and we said, hey, now you are a team together. And of course, you have your whole new chapter where you're coming from, like, a risk chapter or marketing chapter, but you actually are now part of this team. And there is no middleman who takes care of the communication or the reporting or things like that one. You are responsible with that one. So suddenly, we actually put people more in the frontline and be part of making a decision there as well. And that's practically a big change. We luckily found an extremely good company who are consulting us to do in that one. They have really helped us a lot here. They have a long experience to do agile transformation there, and it went really well. So the head count reduction is mainly coming from the middle management administration works, a little bit in some, like, marketing function as well and finance team and -- but mainly where we did not touch at all was the risk and analysis power and IT part. Those were things where we did not touch practically at all. Bernd, do you want to add something?

Bernd Egger executive
#17

No, that was great. Just to be specific on the Q4 costs, personnel expenses, so the upward slope that you see on the chart, this is not massive, EUR 800,000 Q4 compared to Q3. There are basically 3 drivers to this: [ vocation ] accruals, a little bit of redundancy costs and integration of Spotcap team. So those are the reasons. But the number of head count has also reduced in Q4, as you can see, compared to Q3. That's just a little bit an additional piece of information on that.

Jorma Jokela executive
#18

Yes, that was a good point. Yes. Okay. Then we have a next question from Philip Powell. And the question is, could you give any color on near-term EBITDA or profitability target? Do you expect to increase EBITDA for '21? And then the second question is, will you consider buyback your bond to save coupon payments. Bernd, do you want to take that one?

Bernd Egger executive
#19

Yes, absolutely. So on near-term EBITDA and profitability targets, I don't think that we're in a position to give you a specific number this time, but the intention is during Q2, to give you an update on a number of topics, so a, long-term strategy; b, brand strategy; and c, also financial targets. So that is something I would like to ask you for a little bit of patience for financial targets. But what I can say is that I think we are good set for '21, both in terms of operating model, cost structure, but also the fact that we managed to start increasing portfolios also in new segments. On the second question, buying back bonds to save on coupon payments, yes, that is quite similar to the question we had earlier. It's one of the options that we have. So we are considering the options that we have on the table. We have a solid base now with the normalized bond prices for outstanding bonds. So the options are buying back bonds, calling the 2022 bond. This needs to be seen also in context of other options that we naturally are evaluating other instruments, some of which might have an equity character. So there's quite an in-depth analysis going on at the moment. But it is an option. I would put it that way.

Jorma Jokela executive
#20

Good. Good. Okay. Then we have next question...

Bernd Egger executive
#21

Philipp Häßler.

Jorma Jokela executive
#22

Yes, Phillipp. You have quite many question here. So I will be reading aloud this for everybody. So maybe, Bernd, you can take all of those questions. I can take the last one.

Bernd Egger executive
#23

Yes, yes, of course.

Jorma Jokela executive
#24

But good morning. I'm sorry, but I have quite a few questions. The first one, how much of your deposits are term deposits? And please, can you provide what are the 3-, 6-, 9-month term deposits? Second question, can you please give us the volume of the nonperforming Stage 3 loan on the end of the year? Question three, is my calculation correct that FX [ result ] was neutral in Q4? Is this due to improved hedging or favorable FX movements? Question four, do you expect a model-based risk provision in Q1 this year? And question five, on 2021, is the Q4 revenue level a good run rate for the next quarter? And can you please comment on the performance year-to-date? And then question six, in Primeloan, loan volume has increased significant, but revenue seems to be lagging behind. Can you please comment this development? Good. So Bernd. Do you want to start there?

Bernd Egger executive
#25

Yes, yes, I'll start. Happy to start. How much of the deposits are in term structure and how much is in 3-, 6-, 9-month products currently? So our current focus is less on the short-term deposits, 3, 6 and 9 months. We are rather focusing on 12 months, a little bit also on the fairly new products, so 24-month, 36-month products. We're not pushing the short-term products at the moment. Currently, at the year-end, we hold roughly EUR 63 million, EUR 64 million in the noncurrent bucket, which relates to some EUR 340 million total deposits, so roughly 20% -- close to 20% is in the noncurrent year-plus bucket. What does that mean for 2021? We are, obviously, increasing the loan volume in longer maturity products, so in the prime lending. So from that perspective, it is not unlikely that during 2021, we're going to push a little bit more on -- put a little bit more weight on 12 months, 24 months, 36 months and less weight on 3, 6, 9 months and overnight savings. So the overall structure is not going to change significantly, but we will see a slight shift towards the longer-term products from currently 20% as -- roughly, as I said. On nonperforming loan Stage 3, this is something we will provide the details and the full picture in 2 weeks. What I can say is that we are in -- obviously, in pretty good shape from that perspective as the asset quality has improved over 2020. On foreign exchange, is my calculation correct that foreign exchange was neutral in Q4? Is that due to improved hedging and favorable foreign exchange movement? Yes, that is actually correct. In Q4, we had actually a very positive financial results that is driven by increased hedging levels, but also a favorable movement, especially of the Swedish krona during Q4. So -- but the general strategy is to keep the hedging ratios -- as I said, despite the fact that this comes at a cost to keep the hedging ratios pretty high also in the future. The question number four is a little bit of a tricky one. Do you expect model-based risk provisions in Q1? There are 2 elements -- or 2 aspects I would like to briefly elaborate on. One is, you have seen the chart on the actual payment behavior, which covers also January and February 2021, where the upward trend continued, which means that the actual payment behavior is getting -- continues to get better. So from that perspective, we do not see up until now any impact from macroeconomic variables or the deterioration of macroeconomic variables and the actual payment behavior. Now that is of factual nature as of today. We currently are using 2 models: [indiscernible] model, a more advanced one. It's a little bit too early to tell. But what I can say is that from a pure payment behavior perspective, there is -- we are in a good shape, also taking into consideration that some macroeconomic models or variables such as unemployment rate do not -- do still not look that favorable, but yes, payment behavior is strong. So from that perspective, this is something that we most probably would take into consideration. On 2021, is the Q4 revenue level a good run rate for the next quarters? And can you please comment on the performance year-to-date? Yes, that is something that is also to be seen in connection to the more general statement that Jorma has given on 2021. So we are in a situation that we are opening up the business. Still, we are increasing lending in prime lending. We've spoken about that. At the same time, there is some uncertainty. So we are still not going all in. We do not want to risk asset quality too much. So from that perspective, we are still cautious when it comes to new lending. And from that perspective, it's a little bit too early to make statements on the full year 2021, both in terms of revenue that we expect, but also in terms of profitability that we expect. And that brings me also, yes, performance year-to-date. I mean what I can say is that the trend -- pushing prime lending has continued the trend. The payment behavior is strong, both key aspects, key drivers. We see a continuation from beginning of the year till today. Question number six, in prime loan, volume has increased significantly, but revenues seem to be lagging behind. Yes, that's naturally the case. So this is a little bit -- it's not only the fact that revenues are lagging behind, this also has initially an impact on P&L as we are obliged to build a provision for the expected credit losses at the very moment of granting those loans. Obviously, there are customer acquisition costs. So from that perspective, from a pure short-term perspective within a couple of months or a year or so, this doesn't have an immediate positive impact on P&L. But from a strategic perspective, the product is extremely important. From a revenue perspective, you're right, we have doubled the net accounts receivables in the prime lending business to a little bit more than EUR 30 million at the year-end. And naturally, it takes some time for those portfolios to generate revenues. So these revenues will rather have an impact on 2021 and beyond than on 2020. So yes, your understanding is correct on that.

Jorma Jokela executive
#26

Yes. And I think it's very important to understand the Primeloan. And similar -- it's very similar in SME lending as well that when your -- the typical like a growth path, it's happening on the way that the first you have to be in the customer unique selling proposal and like a customer like your service, then you start to build the loan portfolio behind there, the lending portfolio. And then the revenues start to generate afterwards there. And like Bernd's explanation, it's very upfront-loaded cost. So the marketing cost, credit loss reservations, those are coming -- the loan origination costs. They are all in the upfront cost. And that's a little bit like what makes a little bit tricky to look, especially the loans, like prime loan where the maturities are 5 years. So you -- practically, in the first year, you don't show profitability there. But in the coming fourth -- the second, third, fourth, 5 years, it's a really, really strong profitability there. So -- and that's something what is the logic what we have to -- it's a timing issue more than the profitability issue there. Okay. Let's move on to next question. I think we are now 56 minutes in the call. So I think people have to hurry to maybe jump to other calls. So the next question comes from [ Corrado Varisco ]. At the end of the presentation, can you please elaborate a bit more your refinancing strategy for the bond, expected timetable, your delivering expectation for the future, the recent Greensill Capital insolvency continue some impact your SME lending activity or maybe opportunity? Bernd, do you want to start...

Bernd Egger executive
#27

Yes.

Jorma Jokela executive
#28

I think we have already a little bit explanation -- answered the -- some other people's questions -- those questions, but maybe you can summarize those.

Bernd Egger executive
#29

Yes. I think so. On question 1 and 2 on refinancing strategy and deleveraging expectations, I think I have given the information that we can give at that stage. To summarize that briefly, we are evaluating all options currently, buying back bonds, replacing '22 bond or calling the '22 bond in Q4, issuing new instruments, be it equity. That's all under investigation currently. Again, I'm happy to see that the bond prices have normalized back at the 100 level. So now we have the flexibility of preparing a sound strategy over the next couple of months. So from that -- for a specific announcement, I would like to ask for a little bit patience, but that's the overall way we are looking at the topic currently. On Greensill Capital insolvency, I don't think that I personally would like to comment on that specifically. But maybe, Jorma, do you want to say something about the SME lending activity and the SME strategy?

Jorma Jokela executive
#30

Yes, I think it's -- I think, of course, I don't want to comment a lot on our peer group on what they do, and I am very happy to comment on what we're doing. But if we look at business model that they have a very strong, like, supply chain specialist and supply chain financing partner and, of course, they have a special flavor on their business model that they are very U.K.-driven as well, that the U.K. regulator has been quite -- special approach on the financial industry during the -- for the last 1, 2 years. And I think we have seen this already from the news that many other countries -- many other companies as well. So it's very hard to comment if this Greensill case is coming from the regulator part or the real business performance part. It's very hard to comment, and I don't even want to speculate on that one. What I can say on our part is that we, as Ferratum, we see our SME lending portfolio that in last year, when the COVID -- April, March, when the COVID started, we can see that payment holiday request from our customers increased quite strongly. And -- but they were stabilized over the summer, and we was -- practically in August, September, we were back to pre-COVID level already there. So we don't see like a lot of like payment plan request or the payment holiday request from the entrepreneurs as well. Of course, we have been very selective from the different industries as well. However, now we have started a little bit lending, for example, the restaurant industry. We have started cherry-picking just the last month on the customers who are managed to transfer their business -- traditional restaurant to takeaway restaurant. And there are many of those who are doing great business transformation and using the -- just the restaurant example industry. So we can see a very solid pace currently on the SME business. We don't see any larger risk there. And we might see that this Greensill operation can be even opportunity for us rather than we see currently on the mortgage situation, the way that traditional main street banks, they have come into extremely careful for the small and mid-sized companies financing the working capital. And it's not only Greensill, but this whole segment, we can see, example, the countries like Germany, we can see that -- we can really feel that one that there is really the big gap currently on the market, and we really want to fulfill this gap. We are very confident for that. Okay. Then there is a next question, [ James Beaver ]. How many shares are currently held by the company? What share of the whole capital is that? Ferratum Group, we hold 146,200 shares, our own balance sheet. And Bernd, can you help me what is the -- how much this is from the whole capital? It's...

Bernd Egger executive
#31

Yes, I can. That's 0.67%, that is -- you find the information also on the funding slide. So 0.67%.

Jorma Jokela executive
#32

Good. Then we have the last question from Michael [indiscernible], what is, roughly speaking, the amount and timetable of the impact of the suspended countries on 2021 accounts? And as a rule of thumb, shall we expect a marketing investment at 13% to 14% of the revenue in '21? Bernd, maybe you can take the first one. I can take the second one.

Bernd Egger executive
#33

Yes. Sure.

Jorma Jokela executive
#34

So first answer is marketing cost. Yes, I think it's -- if you look at the historical, our marketing investment has been around 13% -- between -- 15%, and this we see as normal for us. And this range we can see that marketing costs are. Of course, we have to understand that if they are restarting some type of lockdowns that we want to reduce our marketing spending, then it can be that we reduced it down. Or if we see that there is a great opportunity to growing the business faster, it can be that we are beyond of that level if we see the good opportunity to gain the new customer base.

Bernd Egger executive
#35

All right. Then I'll go to the first question Michael raised was, roughly speaking, the amount incentive of the impact of suspended countries on 2021 accounts. Again, I cannot give you a specific number at that stage. But what is important to understand is that in those markets, where we have suspended lending activities during 2021, this is something that was done and decided -- at least decided upon and then initiated rather at the beginning of 2020. You have seen that the revenue impact of that has been quite significant with some EUR 30 million. Naturally, there is also a cost related to that. But what I'm trying to say is that a substantial part of the impact of the suspension of market activities in those countries has been factored in 2021 already -- sorry, in 2020 already.

Jorma Jokela executive
#36

Great. Okay. It looks like we have managed the questions -- answered to all questions. The chat box is empty. Operator, do we have any questions from the phone line?

Operator operator
#37

No, we have no further questions.

Jorma Jokela executive
#38

Clear. So we want to thank, on behalf of the whole Ferratum team and family, for your participation and your interest in our company. And let's keep in touch. If there is any further question, you can always connect to Bernd or myself or our IR. And let's keep in touch. Thanks, everybody. Bye.

Bernd Egger executive
#39

Thank you. Bye.

Operator operator
#40

This concludes the call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.

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