Nexity SA (NXI) Earnings Call Transcript

Good evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us for this webcast to discuss our 2026 half year results. I am joined this evening by Pierre-Henry Pouchelon, whom you know very well. I will begin by taking you through the key highlights from today's release, after which Pierre-Henry will provide a more detailed review of our commercial performance and financial results. And as always, you will, of course, have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of the presentation. Let's begin with the 3 key messages from the first half. Firstly, our first half performance is fully in line with the group's trajectory. In a market that remains at the bottom of the cycle, as you well know, we continue to improve current operating profit, which doubled compared with the first half of '25, while maintaining strict financial discipline. We are also reaffirming our 2026 guidance despite a more challenging market environment. I would like to emphasize one important point. Our trajectory does not depend on a market rebound. It is underpinned by the transformation measures we have implemented and by levers that are within our control and that we've been actively deploying since 2024. Pierre-Henry will return to this in greater detail. Secondly, New Nexity continues to gain momentum quarter after quarter with several strong indicators during the first half that I will now discuss. First, our lead in the regeneration of commercial sites has been confirmed. Our offering is high quality and fully aligned with market demand. And finally, we recently announced that we had entered into exclusive negotiations with Groupe BPCE regarding a proposed strategic partnership for the distribution of new build homes, which is very important to us. Thirdly, our direction remains clear and unchanged, namely rebuilding margins and improving profitability, reducing debt and generating cash. These remain management's 3 key priorities, and they are unchanged. Now I would like to revisit the environment in which we operated during the first half. The risk environment became more challenging over the period. The war in the Middle East is an entirely external, unforeseeable factor, which weighed on 2/3 of the period, bringing renewed concerns over inflation and energy prices as well as a sharp downward revision by the Banque de France to its French growth forecast. Obviously, there has been an impact on gasoline prices. And as I said, the sharp downward revision by the Banque de France brought the French growth forecast to 0.5% from 0.9%. All of these factors naturally prompted significant caution among first-time buyers. We need to adjust our assessment of the cycle. The expected recovery has been delayed, but this does not call into question our 2026 guidance, which we are reaffirming. The municipal election cycle has also created additional inertia. 70% of incumbent mayors were reelected, which is a source of stability. However, the formation of intermunicipal governing bodies and the resumption of planning permit reviews take time and have taken significantly longer than usual in metropolitan authorities. So we have to negotiate our permits with those authorities, and this has been delayed until July. So we expect to begin seeing the impact after the summer. Nevertheless, our commercial indicators are proving more resilient than the market. Our retail sales were down 9% over the period compared with a 15% decline in the overall market. As regards bulk sales, we will provide a full update at year-end. As a reminder, half of our 2025 bulk sales were signed in the fourth quarter alone as this segment is inherently nonlinear. The new cycle will be more demanding in terms of costs, the quality and innovation of new build products, land and location and overall selectivity. And these are precisely the areas in which New Nexity stands apart, and we demonstrated this during the first half. Let me now take you through the evidence. Let us begin with 2 major operational milestones from the first half. We obtained the first building permit under our partnership with Carrefour for the Lomme project in Northern France. The project involves redeveloping an 8,300 square meter previously developed brownfield site, including our car park into a mixed-use neighborhood comprising approximately 430 housing units, including a student residence of around 300 units. Nearly 400 bulk sales units have been signed to date, including 300 by the end of June and are therefore already included in the backlog. This project fully demonstrates the relevance of this partnership. As a reminder, the Carrefour partnership represents total estimated revenue of EUR 2 billion at 100% on completion based on our target committed margin levels. In early June, we also announced our first project with Immo Mousquetaires in Villeneuve-Loubet involving the transformation of a retail complex into a mixed-use development, spanning more than 30,000 square meters. And the project illustrates the strong interest generated by our recognized expertise in urban regeneration. Another key differentiating factor is our product positioning, an offering located where demand is strongest with more than 90% of our development situated in high demand or supply-constrained areas, an offering tailored to our customers' purchasing power through our loan equals rent solution supported by the French 0% interest loan scheme or PTZ. The quality of our offering is reflected in our 30-day sales rate, which has [ tripled ] since 2023. A third sign of differentiation is the return of individual investors, with bookings up 16% during the first half. And this is naturally linked to the introduction of the new private landlord tax regime known as the Jeanbrun scheme, which we address through our optimal offering, and we expect a full ramp-up through bank referral networks from September onwards. We have sold more than 200 units under this scheme, mainly through our in-house sales teams and independent financial advisers. Another sign of New Nexity's growing momentum is the proposed strategic partnership with BPCE that we announced on the 2nd of July. We have entered into exclusive negotiations with the leading French banking group that is highly active in residential mortgage lending to French households. And this is in connection with a 2-part transaction. First, the creation of a joint venture, 51% owned by Nexity, whose role will be to source and structure a portfolio of new build and refurbished homes from property developers. This offering will be distributed through BPCE Solutions immobilieres across the BPCE networks as well as through the distribution division's partner networks. And second, BPCE's takeover of the distribution activities currently carried out by iSelection for the BPCE network. For Nexity, this represents a long-term strategic foothold in the distribution business, an area in which the group has recognized expertise while also optimizing its operating structure. We are targeting completion by the end of 2026 with the new structure expected to be operational no later than January 1, 2027. We will, therefore, be in a position to provide you with more detailed information on the financial impact by the end of the year. This growing commercial momentum is supported by an equally differentiated ESG strategy that is fully aligned with the key challenges facing our businesses. It is reflected in a number of tangible and highly innovative partnerships. For example, we are the only developer working on the Essential concept, namely a building requiring neither heating nor air conditioning. We're also developing geothermal solutions for multiunit housing on a building-by-building basis rather than at neighborhood level in partnership with Accenta. We also have a partnership with Maitre Cube for off-site timber construction, targeting 500 units per year from 2028 as well as an industrialized multistory car park solution developed with Briand. And these initiatives enable us to anticipate the 2028 and 2031 thresholds under France's RE2020 environmental regulations while maintaining tight control over costs. Now I'm going to hand over to Pierre-Henry, who will take you through our commercial activity in detail, followed by the financial results for the first half.

Thank you, Veronique. I'll now run through the commercial activity of the half financial results. Overview of the commercial activity for the half. On this slide, you have all the commercial indicators that I'll detail one by one. A word perhaps on the service activity. It's not part of a dedicated slide. The cyclical low continued during the half with tertiary investments down 20% in the Paris region and 25% nationally if we restate a mega deal that occurred for logistics. In this context, Nexity recorded EUR 16 million order intake, tertiary in the regions, the initiative and diversification of service assets and the backlog after rebuilding amounts at the end of June at around EUR 60 million. Commercial offering 5,000 units, that's 9% down over last year. Controlled drop with over half of the commercial launches that are expected in the second half of the year. There's a flow rate that remains stable at 5 months structuring elements on the quality of the offering, as Veronique mentioned, position 93% in constrained areas. That's 17% more than [ 2022 ]. Pre-selling of launches very high, 74%, which is an indicator on the incoming pipeline and no stock of completed housing over the half, 3,858 reservations, 2,200 (sic) [ 2,230 ] retail sales. That's a drop of 9% compared with a market that is down 15% according to [indiscernible] question. The mix change, first-time buyers down 26% after the wait-and-see attitude, but investors grew by 16% with over 1,100 reservations with the gradual ramp-up as expected of the Jeanbrun, 200 reservations signed over the period. We expect to see an acceleration of the Jeanbrun scheme in the quarters 3 and 4. Bulk sales represent 1,600 (sic) 1,628 units. They're not representative over the year. 50% of the bulk volumes last year were signed in Q4. We'll review that in detail at the end of the year, same trend. Slide 15, our commercial strategy, attractive offering. 47 commercial launches during the half on targeted transactions, well suited to demand. VAT 5.5% constrained areas reflected in the commercialization rates, 30 days in. We see that the commercialization rate has increased threefold over 2023 private investors, 100% of the offering is eligible to the Jeanbrun scheme. The ramp-up is gradual, driven by internal sales and financial advisers. We expect an acceleration in quarter 3 and 4 when the bank networks will be ready to market that as of September. I won't dwell on this slide of the mix in H1 doesn't represent what we expect at the end of the year because of the seasonal factor for bulk sales, we expect a contribution of that about 60%. I'll end with our operations playing a growing role in our performance in a recurring bedrock of our operational profitability. Firstly, Studea, leader for private student residents, 138, 97% occupation rate and developer operator margin of EUR 1.5 million for each residence. The operating margin of the Studea operate 15%. That's recurring income for the group. We're leader in Paris, co-working, 86 sites, 96% in Paris and the region for the [ Morning ]. Occupancy rate high at 83%, all these operating activities, Studea and co-working showing margin rates higher than 10% that are accretive for the group. Moving now to the financials for the half. This slide shows all the financial indicators, and I'll comment them one by one. They reflect a bridge in line with the trajectory. If we look at revenue over the first half, it comes out at EUR 1.1 billion, minus 18%. Residential 79% of revenue, down 22% as anticipated. It reflects the embedded drop of reservations since 2022 because of the completion mechanism, tertiary 2% of revenue with the market at a cyclical low, as said. Revenue for service is stable, EUR 200 million; operations, 80% of service revenue, up 9% with high occupancy rates, distribution down 21%. 2 effects, a base effect with the delivery of the Carre Invalides project in April 25 and the drop in deeds registered. Let's move to current operating result of New Nexity that rose from EUR 6 million to EUR 12 million, a doubling over last year. All lines of activity are up with the 3 levers: reconstitution of margins, the residential section because of the margin at each completion stage, new operations with higher margins with the impact of the savings plan of EUR 100 million and the regular contribution of our operating activities generating 12% margin. It's a structural improvement in line with our trajectory. Balance sheet. Our net financial debt remained stable versus that of June 30, 2025. We had a net financial debt of EUR 398 million end of June, EUR 328 million at the end of December. We come out at EUR 394 million at the end of June this year, stable versus last June, the increase versus December and the normal peak of WCR linked to the seasonality end of June. Operating free cash flow is negative, but improved EUR 20 million with a limited increase of WCR plus [ EUR 30 million ]. Good control of our financial expenses. To end, a few words on the group's financial structure. The group's debt is covered fixed rate at 76%. On the right, you see the maturity of the medium-term debt is fully covered by available liquidity and liquidity comes out solidly at EUR 563 million, integrating an undrawn portion of the credit line for EUR 485 million. Back to Veronique for the outlook.

Thank you. As I said, the market is still in the bottom of the cycle. So we reaffirm our guidance. H1 performance relies on drivers that you're familiar with, rebuilding our margins, Serviced Properties. We do not rely on a rebound in the market. And one last aspect regarding this half year, we've entered into exclusive negotiations with Groupe BPCE regarding the creation of a major new home platform, distribution platform. Regarding the development pipeline that you are familiar with, it represents 5 years of activity available. Backlog EUR 3.7 billion, equivalent to 1.6 years', and this is unchanged on December 30. Now the Development pipeline comes to EUR 8.8 billion, the equivalent of 42,000 housing units, so 3.5 years extra work. Now we have a highly selective approach by our commitment committees. The backlog fuels revenue for the next 18 months, and this will guarantee future value creation. Our guidance has been confirmed. Further improvement in operating profitability with higher New Nexity current operating profit in 2026. And we will return as quickly as possible to below our target level of 3.5x and no later than the end of 2027. We have 2 key levers fully under our control, rebuilding of our margin supported by our EUR 100 million cost savings program and the continued application of strict financial discipline through a highly selective approach to new developments. As a matter of prudence, this trajectory assumes there is no material deterioration in the macroeconomic environment. However, our plan does not depend on recovery in the property market. Thank you for your attention. Pierre-Henry and I are now happy to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Next question, Ebrahim Homani, CIC.

Three, the pre-commercialization rate going from 82% to 74% between the first quarters. How could we read that? Second question on the development, the margin is positive, but it remains low. In your release, you talked about transactions with the target. What's the proportion of those at the target in the development mix? Final question on the guidance, CO profit at 2026, when you were at EUR 19 million in H2 '26 were already ahead on your guidance of operating profit last year. What can we expect on the H2 this year?

I'll answer your 3 questions. So on the pre-commercialization rate, well, they're very high pre-commercialization rate, 82% or 74% are internal rules to buy land. It's a minimum pre-commercialization of 70%. It was 40% pre-crisis. Internally, we upped it to 60%. We're at 74%. That's very high and it supports the fact that what we're launching, we have a good track record for selling, be it retail or bulk sales on development. The margins are being rebuilt that is completion recalibrated operate -- the margin is close to 0%, dilutive at this stage, but no bad surprise on those transact. We're putting into production as planned, the new operation. The mix is pretty balanced between operations of the previous cycle and operation of the new equation. On the guidance, yes, we did times 2 on the operating profit of H1. You know the revenue and margin at completion stage is higher in H2 than in H1. And I think that this pace of doubling that we posted in H1, we should be able to maintain it through the end of the year. We got some written questions here. I'll read it from written questions from [indiscernible]. The operation selection, will it requires liquidity entry for Nexity. Veronique said we disclose all the financial impacts of the strategic partnership with BPCE at the time of the closing that will occur between now and the end of the year. And yes, there will be an inflow of liquidity for Nexity. Could we have an update for the stake possible with Morning an extension of the RCF beyond February 28? On Morning, first point, and you see it in the figures. So 2 years now, we're on a very proactive action plan to improve the operating profitability of Morning. You see that the operation division generating 12%. You see the Studea Coworking. The Studea is around 15% by deduction. You'll find the margin of our Coworking. It's very high for that sector. So that's our priority in terms of action. And as we said, we remain open to opening up the capital or deconsolidating Morning at this stage, nothing concrete. That's why we're not mentioning and we remain opportunistic on renegotiating the RCF, obviously, we're already discussing that with our bankers, and it's very supportive of Nexity's strategy and has been for 2 years now. And we're delivering. We're trying to deliver better than expected our commitments notably of banking covenants because as you can see still on screen, if it's the slide displayed, we have a covenant of 7x in 2026. We were at 4.9x at the end of '25. And Veronique said, we're confirming our guidance, improved leverage at the end of '26 versus end of '25. So we're really ahead on the covenant trajectory. Yes, discussions are underway.

What about the question on recent cost savings?