NLC India Limited (513683) Earnings Call Transcript

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Pelcia, moderator for the conference call. Welcome to NLC India Q3 FY '24 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this conference is recorded. I would now like to hand over the floor to Mr. Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Thanks, Pelcia. Good evening. On behalf of ICICI Securities, I would like to welcome you all to the Q3 FY '24 earnings call of NLC India. Today, we have with us Shri M. Prasanna Kumar, Chairman and Managing Director; Shri K. Mohan Reddy, Director, Planning and Projects; Dr. Suresh Chandra Suman, Director, Mines; Shri Samir Swarup, Director, Human Resources; Shri M. Venkatachalam, Director, Power; Dr. Prasanna Kumar Acharya, Director, Finance; and Shri Naman Lahoti, Consultant, DIPAM. The call will begin with brief remarks by the management, after which we'll open the lines for the Q&A. I would now like to hand over the line to CMD sir for your opening remarks. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Thank you, Mohitji. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you very much, Mohitji, for hosting this investors conference call, and greetings to all the participants for showing interest in NLCIL and thanks to all the investors for extending the continuous support. I would like to take this as an opportunity to interact with the NLCIL's shareholders and also reply to their queries in the financial results for the 9 months ended 31st December 2023, and company's capacity addition program of NLCIL. I am Prasanna Kumar Motupalli, Chairman and Managing Director of NLC India Limited. And joining with me today are Shri K. Mohan Reddy, Director, Planning and Projects; Dr. Suresh Chandra Suman, Director, Mines; Shri Samir Swarup, Director, Human Resources; Shri M. Venkatachalam, Director, Power; and Dr. Prasanna Kumar Acharya, Director Finance, along with senior management of the company. Before the interaction, I would like to brief on the highlights and performance of NLCIL during the third quarter and 9 months ended 31st December 2023. Unit 1 of Ghatampur Thermal Power Station was successfully synchronized with the grid on 4th November 2023. NLCIL Mines has been awarded with 13-star rating by Ministry of Coal on 20th December 2023, with NLC Mines rated as the Best Mines in the country consistently for two years. We awarded EPC contract to BHEL for setting up of 3x800 megawatt pit-head ultra supercritical Talabira Thermal Power project on 12th January 2024. On 3rd February 2024, Honorable Prime Minister has laid foundation stone for 3x800 megawatt pit-head ultra supercritical Talabira Thermal Power Project. On 5th December 2023, NTPL commenced biomass co-firing in its coal-based power station. 15% interim dividend was declared for the financial year '23-'24. CapEx achieved till January '24 is INR 3,493 crores against annual target of INR 2,880 crores, that is 21% more than the annual target. NLCIL incorporated a newly wholly owned subsidiary NLC India Green Energy Limited, "NIGEL", to undertake the green projects and initiatives. Coming to the physical performance, stand-alone. The coal production during the 9 months period ended 31st December 2023 is 82.19 lakh metric tonne, against 75.52 lakh metric tonne in the corresponding period of the previous year. Lignite production during the 9 months ended 31st December '23 is 162.83 lakh metric tonne against 172.09 lakh metric tonne in the corresponding period of the previous year. Stand-alone power generation during the 9 months ended 31st December '23 is around 15.5 BU against 18.2 BU in the last financial year. Consolidated. The consolidated power export during the 9 months ended 31st December 2023 is 17.3 BU as against 20.1 BU in the corresponding period of the previous year. Coming to the financial performance, stand-alone. The profit after tax for the 9 months ended 31st December 2023 is INR 1,673 crores as against INR 474 crores in the corresponding period of the previous year, registering a growth of 253%. Profit before tax for the 9 months ended 31st December 2023 is INR 2,566 crores against INR 568 crores in the corresponding period last year, registering a growth of 352%. The EBITDA of the company for the 9 months ended 31st December 2023 is INR 4,137 crores as against INR 2,212 crores in the corresponding period of the previous year, registering a growth of 87%. Coming to the consolidated performance. Profit after tax of the group for 9 months ended 31/12/2023 is INR 1,754 crores as against INR 590 crores in the corresponding period of the previous year, registering a growth of 197%. Profit before tax of the group for the 9 months ended 31/12/2023 is INR 2,716 crores as against INR 799 crores in the corresponding period of the previous year, registering a growth of 240%. Thank you.

Shall I open the line for questions, sir?

Yes, madam.

[Operator Instructions] First question comes from [ Avneet Anand from 3B Investment Managers ].

So sir, the first question is, can you let us know the 9-month coal financials, meaning sales, EBITDA and PBT for the coal part?

Okay. During the first 9 months of the financial year, the coal production is 82.19 lakh metric tonne against last year's production of 75.52 lakh metric tonne with an impressive growth. And coming to the financials, the coal sale through e-auction is 24.87 lakh metric tonne. Coal sale to NTPC is 28.55 lakh metric tonne and coal sales to NTPC per swapping is 13.77 lakh metric tonne and coal sales to NTPL is 15.7 lakh metric tonne, total 82.89. And the sale value, including the royalties and CRP revision, everything is INR 1,410 crores against the last year's sale value, including royalties of...

Hello, sir? Avneet sir, just a moment, sir. Dear participants, kindly stay connected while we connect the management team back on the call. I welcome back the Chairperson. Please go ahead, sir. Avneet sir, please go ahead with your questions.

Yes, sir, you had talked about the sales for last 9 months...

I'm sorry, just a moment, sir. I welcome back the management. Please go ahead, sir.

Yes, sir, you talked about sales of INR 1,410 crores for the 9 months this year for the coal. What was the number for last year in EBITDA and PBT, sir?

If you take EBITDA, the last financial year up to Q3, it was INR 262 crores, whereas up to -- in the current financial year, it is INR 636 crores. And coming to the PBT, last financial year, the PBT was INR 481 crores; and this financial year, it is INR 600 crores.

Last year, PBT was higher than EBITDA?

It was INR 481 crores last financial year, up to Q3. And this year, it is INR 600 crores till Q3.

Now, just clarifying on the EBITDA number that you talked. This year, INR 636 crores, last year, INR 262 crores.

Last year, the entire year, the EBITDA was INR 721 crores.

Okay. And last year, 9 months sales, how much it was, sir?

Last year, sales?

9 months sales? Yes.

9 months sale, last year, it was INR 1,382 crores. Whereas this year, total sales is INR 1,451 crores.

Okay, sir. The other question I had is in terms of under-recovery, if you can let us know what is the total under-recovery for 9 months? And on what -- how much on -- what are the plant-wise or coal-wise?

This financial year, the under-recovery for NLCIL power stations is INR 569 crores, against last year's INR 342 crores. And if you take NTPL also into consideration, the total under-recovery is INR 711 crores this year compared to INR 386 crores last year.

So indirectly, the numbers, the profit number that sees higher, actually, on an adjusted basis, those numbers would be lower, right, sir? Because the under-recoveries have gone up and no -- not much incremental capacity is added. So have you guys worked on the adjusted profit for the year, sir?

Yes. The increase in profit is mainly on account of favorable orders for lignite transfer price. And compared to the quarter 1 and quarter 2, the performance in quarter 3 is better and the under-recoveries are reducing. And going forward in quarter 4 also, it will further reduce and we are expecting that by the year-end, we will be substantially reducing the under-recoveries.

So year-end, what you are expecting? Under recoveries, which is INR 711 crores right now?

It is INR 711 crores, we are expecting around INR 550 crores to INR 600 crores.

Next question comes from [ Gaurav Lohia from Bowhead India Fund ].

Sir, just wanted to understand on the lignite production, etc., it still remains subpar as to what we were targeting earlier. So could you please highlight, is it because of the land issues? Or is there any other challenges that we are facing? And when do we expect it to normalize, sir?

Okay. As you know, the lignite production in quarter 1 and quarter 2, that was affected because of the land acquisition issue. And in the quarter 3, with the support from the state government, central government and district administration, we could take into possession almost 558 hectares of land. And in the quarter 3 compared to the quarter 1 and 2, the lignite production is improved. And in the quarter 4, it further improved. And now whatever land we have taken into position, we started actions for augmenting the production. Now, our lignite production reached more than 80,000 per day level. And we are hopeful that next 45 days, we'll be able to maintain good production levels and reach the production level that we achieved in the last financial year. And the only issue is the land possession issue. Other than that, no other issues are there.

Okay. So with this kind of productions at 80,000 per day, would you be able to run your plants at full utilization level, especially TPS-II?

As on date, we are having two units under the shutdown for want of lignite. At one point of time, it was 5 to 6 units. So with the increase in the production levels, we are going to take one more unit also into production. So we are hopeful that we will be able to maintain in the next 45 days, only around 150 to 200 megawatt loss in generation. Otherwise, we will be able to maintain the generation levels.

So next financial year, you feel that this under recoveries can become zero, sir, because of the lignite-related issues?

100%. Because already we have taken land into possession and our augmentation of production already started. So we are 100% hopeful that for want of lignite, there will not be any under recovery or generation loss in the next financial year.

And sir, in the TPS-II expansion, the CFBC boiler-related issue, when do you expect that to fully resolve by Q1 FY '25 or before that?

Actually, we plan to take one unit for the modification activities, the major modification activities which we planned in the quarter 4 of this financial year. I think we will be able to take the modification and the almost last part of this financial year. Some supplies from BHEL are yet to happen because [indiscernible] supply. So once that is done, immediately, we will be taking one unit for modification. And in the quarter 1 of the next financial year, we'll be taking up the second unit also. I think with these modifications, we are hopeful that the availability and reliability will substantially be improved.

Understood. And the under-recovery guidance that you have given for the full year of INR 500 crores, INR 600 crores, this includes this modification-related shutdown also, right?

Yes, exactly. Almost INR 200 crores is on account of this TPS-II expansion.

Understood. And sir, could you -- I missed the initial part. Could you just give us the status of the Ghatampur plant? It was supposed to get commissioned by the year end or January, but it has still not happened? So...

Okay. See, as we already oil synchronized unit number one and the subsequent activities of balance of plant are in fast progress. So we were initially targeting for the end of January, but the activities that are pending, now we are targeting for the COD of the unit by end of February or at most by middle of March. The unit #1 will be -- the COD will be declared by middle of March. And the Unit #2, we are expecting by around June '24 and July '24. And unit number #3 by September '24. So we are hopeful that by H1 of the next financial year, all the 3 units commercial operation will be declared.

And sir, considering the demand and the coal type that you have for this unit, can you run at full utilization in FY '26? You will have 6 months of -- okay. So FY '26, we can see the full production from Ghatampur, all 3 units.

Yes, yes.

And sir, the last question is on the e-auction prices. What were the e-auction prices in Q3? And where are they hovering as of now?

I believe, if we compare with the last financial year or before that, now the e-auction prices are comparatively lower. So in the current quarter, the average rate of e-auction coal is INR 1,780 against around INR 2,800, that was in the last financial year. So it is comparatively lower than the last and before last year. But we increased our production levels of the coal. Last year, we produced 10 million metric tonne. And this year, we are targeting for 14 million metric tonne. So because of that, our revenue from the sale of coal, that is increased if you compare it with the last financial year.

Yes. I saw the coal production data, which has been updated for January also. It's been pretty healthy, pretty good. It looks like that we will surpass our own production target for FY '24. So do you feel that you can do 1.5 million metric tonne next year in FY '25 or '26?

FY '25, '26, our target is 16 million metric tonne. So we will be targeting 16 million metric tonne.

Okay. And I meant, sir, e-auction prices for January, where are they hovering now? Last quarter, you said INR 1,780. So have they further come down or they are hovering at the same level, INR 1,700-odd level?

No, actually, the -- because of the coal scenario and power stations as well as the pit-head ultra mine, it is hovering around the INR 1,400 to around INR 1,600. I was telling you, in the month of January, it was -- January '24, it is INR 1,400 against the quarter 3 of INR 1,700.

Next question comes from Rajesh Majumdar from B&K Securities.

Sir, I actually -- the data so far coming for TPS-II and TPS-II expansion is still not suggesting a major recovery in the PLF. So how confident are you that we will be able to minimize the under-recoveries for Q4? That is my first question. So far, the data that we have till date, the PLF for TPS-II and TPS-II expansion is still pretty low. So I'm just wondering whether if we'll be able to do the -- reduce the under-recoveries in such a short period of time, now just about 45 days are left for the end of the quarter? That was my first question.

Okay. Actually, as we already communicated during the last investor call also, we're adopting two strategies. One is the short-term strategy, and one is long-term strategy. In this short-term strategy, the minor modifications we carried out, that resulted in a minor improvement in the availability as well as the reliability in the quarter 3. But as you rightly said, there is no substantial improvement in the performance. The substantial improvement in performance of these units will happen after completion of the modification in FBHE, which we are planning. So as I already told, we awarded the material supply contract -- material supply order to BHEL, and they supplied major portion of the space. Now we are expecting the supply of all the material in 1, 1.5 months. And after that, we will take one of the units for this major modification. Once we take this unit for the major modification, then only a substantial increase in the availability and reliability can be expected. So we are hoping that by Q1 of next financial year, one unit; and Q2 of the next financial year, the second unit, the major modifications will be completed and the availability and reliability will be substantially improved.

Okay. Great. Sir, my second question was regarding Ghatampur, you've already given the details that you'll be able to start commercial generation by Feb or March latest. So when can we expect that unit one will be generating a normative kind of PF to be able to be an addition for a regulated equity? Is it like the first half of FY '25 or the second half?

I believe, we are targeting for COD in the month of March. If you take the initial time to reach to that level. I think we are expecting from the quarter 2 of the next financial year, we'll be achieving the normative availability of the unit.

And for Units 2 and 3?

Units 2 and 3, that we will be targeting Unit 2 in the month of June. So in the quarter 3, I think we will start -- it will reach the normative level. And unit 3 in the quarter 4 -- later part of the quarter 4.

So we'll be able to realize as per your guidance all the regulated equity additions in FY '25 itself on Ghatampur?

We are hopeful about that.

Okay. That's helpful. So that's very helpful. And sir, my last question was you didn't give any figure on the renewables capacity. What we are doing with the old capacities and how we are going to be increasing our capacities? Can you give us some color on the renewable side, please?

See, as on date, we are having 1.4 gigawatt renewable capacity. And we formed one 100% owned subsidiary, NLC India Renewables Energy Limited. And we are in the process of transferring this 1.4 gigawatt assets to NLC India Renewables Energy Limited. And consequently, the asset monetization will be done in line with the target given by Government of India. So this 1.4 gigawatt, we want to take it to -- we're aspiring to take it to 6 gigawatts by 2030. So already actions are in place for reaching more than 6 gigawatt level by 2030. Already, 2 gigawatt solar projects are already in pipeline, 600 megawatt in the state of Gujarat and 800 megawatt in the state of Rajasthan. And we are also doing a 50-megawatt -- we are also awarded 50-megawatt wind project in the state of Gujarat. So with all these things, we are hopeful that we will be reaching more than 60 gigawatt by 2030.

Okay. And sir, what is the likely completion rate for the 600 megawatt and 800 megawatt, these two projects, Gujarat and Rajasthan?

See, all these projects are having completion time of 12 to 15 months. So we are hopeful that by end of financial year '25, we will be able to complete all these projects which are in the pipeline, the 600 megawatt, 800 megawatt and 150 megawatt hybrid, all these projects, we will be able to complete by end of the financial year '24-'25. And we are also going for solar plant installation in the state of Assam. We already signed MoU with the state of Assam for establishing a 1,000-megawatt solar power station in the state of Assam. That also, we are taking it forward.

Yes, I wanted to ask you about that. So is there any development in that? Any progress in that MoU?

Yes, yes. We signed that MoU. And after that, the -- some land packets were identified. And we have prepared the DPR for the 100 megawatt and the process of formation of JV company is going on. We are hopeful that we'll be able to do that by end of this financial year. And the JV will be formed and the 1,000 megawatt will be added through that JV.

Okay. Sir, if I could [ add ] just one last small question. Are we doing anything regarding pump hydro. Because when I had gone to your site, I remember there used to be a reservoir on top and you were planning some kind of pump hydro project. So is there any progress on that?

Exactly. As on date, NLCIL is taking almost all the green initiatives that are available in the country. In this regard, particularly the pump storage, the used mines are having the potential to establish pump storage plant. So we entered an MoU with WAPCOS for preparing the DPR -- feasibility report and DPR and that activity is going on. So we are hopeful that in the initial phase, 35 megawatt, and finally, around 200 megawatt pump storage potential is there in our used mine lands. So once that DPR is prepared, we will move forward for establishing the [ 3-pump ] storage plant.

Next question comes from Nikhil Abhyankar from ICICI Securities.

My first question was, can you give us the split of the under-recovery because of mining and because of generation?

Okay. So in mining, there is no under-recovery. Whereas for generation, if we go to generation, station-wise if we see, the majority of this under-recovery is from TPS-II, Stage 2. That is mainly because of the lignite shortfall and the TPS-II expansion, that INR 186 crores, that's attributed to the technical problem and also the lignite shortage. So these are the major components of this INR 569 crores under-recovery.

How much you mentioned for TPS-II, Stage 2?

TPS-II, Stage 2 is INR 207 crores. And TPS-II expansion is INR 186 crores.

Sir, in the recently received draft tariff order, for TPS-II, the normative PAT has been reduced to 50%. So we are almost nearing that level. So should we expect complete 100% recovery from next year from TPS-II itself? TPS-II expansion?

Yes, TPS-II expansion, we are expecting 100% recovery from next year onwards. Because...

So this will boost our PAT by INR 200 crores directly, if I'm not wrong.

Yes.

Sir, do you expect any problems from the DISCOM on this move? Will there -- will it be challenged before we get the final tariff order?