Home / Transcripts / OPENLANE, Inc. (OPLN) · August 12, 2026

OPENLANE, Inc. (OPLN) Earnings Call Transcript

August 12, 2026

NYSE US Industrials Commercial Services and Supplies conference_presentation 34 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Rajat Gupta analyst
#1

So thanks, everyone, for joining. My name is Rajat Gupta. I'm a member of the Automotive Equity Research team at JPMorgan. Very pleased to have with us the team from OPENLANE. Peter Kelly, CEO, Brad Herring, CFO. Thanks so much for being here.

Peter Kelly executive
#2

Thank you, Rajat. Nice to be here.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#3

Maybe I think I'll get like the 2 most topical questions out of the way quickly. Firstly, I mean, do you see a reason -- or do you see industrial logic for consolidation in this sector over time? Is there a need? Does it make sense? Just curious to quickly get your thoughts without maybe naming any specific?

Peter Kelly executive
#4

Yes. Well, there have been some rumors. I don't want to comment on rumors. But in the abstracts in terms of consolidation, I think historically, this industry was somewhat too ophilistic in nature, right? If you go back to the physical auction era, there really were 2 larger players, Manheim being 1 [indiscernible], it was the other. That was owned by car. We've gone through a period where there's been maybe some more fragmentation of that. I think digital technologies came in that brought in some new players. We did a transaction, we sold a decato focus on a digital strategy. So today, the environment is definitely more than duopolistic. There's multiple players, 5, 6 different players. I think probably there is a rationale for some consolidation over time. Yes. I do think that in most marketplace businesses, they consolidate to 2 or 3, not 5 or 6. I think that's what I would say is more typical, and I think that's probably going to be true of this industry over time as well.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#5

And it doesn't matter if it's digital or physical, it's just total industry?

Peter Kelly executive
#6

I think physical businesses often tend to be a little bit more local or regional and then you can roll that up into a chain or a national chain, but the auction itself, at least in the old days was more driven by your strength in that metro market or in that regional market. digital businesses, by their nature tend to be more sort of coast-to-coast national in nature, right? But I still think the same thing applies. I mean pick your marketplace vertical, most of them tend to consolidate to 2 or 3 years in my experience.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#7

Yes. Understood. And maybe just the news this morning around the buyback program, the $25 million threshold buying back some of the shares that Apex might be offloading? Just give us an update on that, like the decision behind that? Was this opportunistic? Like can we see this expand over time?

Bradley Herring executive
#8

Yes, sure. So APAC decided to sell about 8 million shares as announced yesterday, we participated. We bought $25 million worth. It was very opportunistic. We certainly wanted to tag on. We've been pretty active in the buyback market all year. We bought $25 million, $26 million in Q1, another $23 million to $24 million in Q2. So another $25 million here logically made sense for us knowing where the price was. It also leaves us open. Once we clear the open window, we'll be back in market some more because share buybacks have always been part of our capital allocation. We generate a lot of cash. and we feel like that's a good use of excess cash.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#9

Got it. Okay. Now those are out of the way. I'll go back to like the business. Obviously, a pretty strong stretch of good results. Sometimes when you see this momentum for so many quarters in a row, I'm just curious like how your team internally is holding on and just delivering on these trends and just the feedback that you're getting, like, how are they managing that? Like how are you just sustaining that kind of momentum, like keeping everyone energized, just culturally and operationally both?

Peter Kelly executive
#10

Yes. Well, I much prefer this environment than the opposite. It's much easier to keep the team energized. I always say, great teams like to win. So when you're winning, that improves and employee morale, includes employee retention. It just solves a whole lot of challenges that you have as a leader of an organization. So I feel really good about the trajectory we're on. The team is in a great place. Yes, with the growth we've seen over the last quarters. It puts some strain on, I'll say, the operation sometimes if the volume exceeds the sort of infrastructure capacity. I'm not talking about the technology, but like, things like logistics, title processing, customer service calls. So we're trying to like build up those areas both at the cold phase but also the management layers that we're handling those well. And that's part of incremental investments we talked about on our earnings call. Some of it is geared to beefing up that operational infrastructure. But we feel really good with the growth we're seeing. I think what it reflects is this company has some real advantages vis-a-vis its competition, and we may get into some of those on this call, but the strength of our commercial relationships, what that brings us in terms of our exposure to franchise dealers. our finance business and the position that gives us independent dealers. I think those create natural advantages in our go-to-market for the business. I think we've got an industry that's positioning ever more digital as most industries are, right? And I think that trend is not slowing down. And I'm thankful that our customers, when they look at the digital offerings that are out there, they put OPENLANE at or probably at the top of the list because we seem to be gaining more share than others. So I feel really good. The team is in great shape. Yes. I'm very pleased with it. Brad, anything to add to that?

Bradley Herring executive
#11

Not much to add. You walk the halls and you feel it.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#12

Yes. No, for sure, it's been very impressive. And when you had the 20% plus market outperformance, you were like, this is not repeatable, like you're going to run a tough comp at some point and then you have high 20s, now you have like mid- to high 30s, I think, ACV said like the market was down 8%. So like that puts you in like mid-30s. So -- but you've maintained your commentary around, hey, like let's be aware of tough comps and this is -- this cannot grow at 30%. Just help us understand if maybe like starting from top leg is, how do you feel about the market in general? And then why can't you sustain 30% comps? Because it looks like a lot of the synergies around the commercial and ASC are still like still very early.

Peter Kelly executive
#13

Yes. Well, I did say it and now I say it, and I mean it. But listen, if we started the market at the top, the principal thing we look at, I'd say, the first metric we look at is new car sales, right? Because new car sales drive trade-ins, trade-ins drive the D2D market. And it seems to me that new car sales are in the zone, they're in, $16 million, $16.5 million. And that's kind of where they're going to be. I think that's a new normal. I don't think we're going back to 17.5% anytime I can see. And that kind of sets a bit of a ceiling. And I think that's kind of where the industry is. That's going to drive a certain level of trade in. So the D2D market I consider it more flattish. It's up or down. I don't think it was down 8%. I would say, based on our data because our volumes grew physical was down a little bit. But we're growing in a market that's basically flat, right? And I think outperforming that, I remember talking to you some years ago saying we'd like to outperform by 10%. We've been doing better than that. But I do think 10% to 20% is still a good range of outperformance in that over a longer period of time. We'll see how each quarter goes and obviously, we're going to continue to lean in. But I think what's driving that is, again, while the market itself is flat, the customers are continuing to shift from a physical wholesale model to a digital one. So that's where the growth is in the industry, and that's where we're positioned. As dealers franchise and independent and commercial sellers realize the benefits that online platforms can offer them in their wholesale business.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#14

Do you think we're reaching a tipping point on the digital penetration side where -- I mean we've had this like when we used to try and size the industry back in 2019 or when like when ACV was becoming public, there was a steady like 300 basis points of digital benefit here. Do you think we're at a point where that 300 basis points is becoming 500 or 600. Is there an inflection point nearing?

Peter Kelly executive
#15

I don't see evidence of that yet, Rajat. I don't think this industry at the automotive dealer level, it doesn't really massive tipping points in my experience. It's been more steady, gradual. But the good news is we've seen an acceleration over the last number of years, a couple of -- 2 years -- 2-plus years, let's say. So I feel pleased about that. I'd say that is sort of the 300 basis points that we've seen today. And I think the Q2 number also kind of reflected that based on the math I did. So I haven't seen that expand to 350 or 400 yet. But listen, we're pleased with 300 basis points of shift in the TAM is 150,000-plus units per year. And if those move digitally, and we can capture the lion's share of that, and that's a good growth equation for that part of our business.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#16

Right. I mean you're clearly capturing like bigger portion of that change. Do you see a natural ceiling to the penetration?

Peter Kelly executive
#17

Again, I don't really -- my view is all -- if I look at the wholesale used car market and cars that used to go or continue to go to physical auction, I think the dealer-to-dealer segment is fully addressable by digital. Because when those cars go to physical auction, they're not going there for the reconditioning, they're not going there for the detailed shop. They're going there really just to go down the lane, get bid on and get sold. And I believe our digital platform does that better without all those costs. right? So I think the market -- the D2D component of the market is fully addressable. I think there are other segments, as you know like repo, where cars have to be stored and -- or maybe reconditioning might have more value and repo is an [indiscernible] repossession is not a segment we address at any sort of scale today. But I think the D2D segment is fully addressable, and that's half the TAM.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#18

Right. And the way the auction is set up and the format is set up and your platform is set up, are you already addressing the whole market? Or is there a certain push on the market will only come with time?

Peter Kelly executive
#19

So I would say today, we're going to sell cars from $100 or $200 to 100 in every type of car in between. We're -- there are buyers for every car. It doesn't matter how damaged or how nice there's a buyer audience for that. The question is, can you get the seller and buyer to align on what the car is actually worth? And can you clear kind of clear the transaction? And I think our market is very effective at that. I think there are sellers when they put cars in our marketplace to get stats on how many people have looked at this car, how many bids are placed on this car. Here's what similar cars have transacted at in the past. Sellers that have been using us for a while, build a sort of an intuitive confidence in, okay, once I see this many viewers, this many bidders, I'm not going to get a better price anywhere else. They kind of learn that and they act on the signals are getting. And if they need to lower the price a little bit lower than they thought they might have to come in, they'll do that, but they'll still know they've got a good outcome. So we sell everything in the spectrum, in my view.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#20

Do you like fear any new competition in the sector, maybe not traditional B2B, but I mean let's take Carvana or CarMax or Copart. I mean just curious like how you think about protecting your share as you're on this digital path?

Peter Kelly executive
#21

Yes. I think there's always competition, and we talked about the fragment the industry set up at the beginning of this conversation. I think we expect competition. We expect to differentiate ourselves vis-a-vis our competitors do a great job for our customers. So that's what we're focused on. I will say our core customers are automotive dealers, right, franchised and independent and also commercial sellers, capital finance, car companies, et cetera. we want to see all of those customers do well. So if I was to say, look at, say, franchise dealers, I want to see our franchise dealers do well. I want to see them get plenty of trade-ins. And I know they're competing with the CarMaxes and the Carvanas of the world for that trade-in business. We like to see those trade-ins end up with our franchise dealers because, again, that means they're going to have used car inventory, they're going to have some excess, which they put into a wholesale environment. So that's kind of the dynamics we like to see. But I'm not fearful of any competitor, and I feel really good about the offering that we have for our customers.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#22

And just lastly on pricing. You've maintained this position is maybe being slightly below physical auctions? I mean, where do you think the gap is today? And maybe just expand on that philosophy a little bit? And then fundamentally, do you see yourself as a price taker from iron or a price maker in the current landscape? Just help us that.

Peter Kelly executive
#23

Good question. first of all, like when a buyer or a seller interacts with us, and cells or buys a vehicle. The key economic driver is the value of the vehicle. We might be selling a $15,000 vehicle, and there might be $500 or $600 of fees associated with that. But what really matters is the $15,000. If you're a seller, you got $15,000, should you have got $15,500 or is $15,000 better than 140 that you might have got in a different channel. That's going to be the big -- so the customer is going to be more motivated by the results that we're delivering. -- than the fee that we're charging, right? They're sort of indifferent whether the BIF is 350 or 400. You know what I mean? . If the rest of the equation works. But that said, we're in the process of trying to get dealers to migrate we felt that being positioned, having a little bit of a cost advantage is helpful. I still believe that. But I do think over time, there's opportunity to increase those fees. I was on a call with some of our sales team just late last week, I think it was, and they were just talking about some dealers that have migrated away recently, and I asked what was the motivation. What was -- what made this dealer move 10 stores across to us, for example. The feedback I got was the dealer had tried 2 or 3 of the stores and had just compared the results with what they're getting in their other channel. And they're just getting like $400, $500 more on a net basis. It was -- again, that was the motivation to move, not like the fact that our selfies or [indiscernible] you know what I mean. So again, we focus on that. We focus on the results. Our customers, large or small, they're all businesses. At the end of the day, they're all driven by in my view. I mean in the short term, it might be relationship. In the long term, it's going to be performance.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#24

Got it. No, makes sense. Maybe like digging into like the platform and just network effects that you're seeing. When you walked us through the platform at NEDA earlier this year, I was surprised by some of the social elements built into the experience, like being able to follow specific sellers. I'd be curious how central those features have actually been to driving network effects. And whether there are others along these lines, you've rolled out recently or have in the pipeline that you can talk about?

Peter Kelly executive
#25

Yes. So again, a little bit of a difference versus some of the -- some of our competitors' channels. But when you're a seller, we show the buyer who the seller is. So we're not hiding the fact that there's a seller. That creates a little bit of a risk that the buyer could go around, contact the seller directly and do a transaction off-line. That's the downside. But I don't think that happens much. The benefit of showing the buyer who the seller is, is we can then show some key stats, how things like what's the seller's conversion rate, how quickly did you get the title, maybe arbitration percentage, if that's relevant, but there's some stats there. And then the buyer, if they have -- they like buying from that seller, they can follow that center. So every time that seller adds inventory, the buyer gets a push notification. right? And for the seller, that becomes a little bit of a stickiness. One of the things we've talked about, how do we build stickiness into our platform? Well, if you've got 300 followers that don't really migrate with you if you then move to a competitive platform. Well, that's stickiness, right? And I think our more informed sellers realize, hey, the more followers we have, the better results I deliver. The higher conversion rate I have, the more followers I get. So all these things kind of play into the type of behaviors that we think are healthy for the marketplace as well as good for our economics, which is high conversion rates, lots of transparency, open disclosure of all the key stats, high followership, all those kind of attributes.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#26

Yes. Got it. And you've pointed to some real improvements in NPS and dealer engagement and we picked some of that up in our own survey work as well. I recognize it's probably some combination of the sales force investment, customer support, absolute sales. But I'd be curious like what's -- what do you point to as like the top the drivers behind just the brand perception?

Peter Kelly executive
#27

Well, we've made that a core part of our company culture and a core part of our -- the way we operate as a company. Our -- it sounds a little corny, maybe, but our purpose deal make wholesale easy so our customers can be more successful. I'll probably talk about that at Noga at our town hall meetings. We showcased [indiscernible] we had a town hall yesterday in fact, before we flew out here, and we showcased a little vignette. Here's an example of 2 reps in different geographies to work together to solve a problem for customers. So just kind of continually reinforcing that this is what our company is about. I often say our dealers are relationship-oriented people. I think dealers people work in franchise dealers. There's a lot of sales characteristics, a lot of relationship orientation there. And yes, we are a digital company in a relationship business, right? So we lean heavily into that. And to me, the ultimate reflection of our -- how well we're doing on that at the [indiscernible] like whatever dealers answer in the PS survey today, I'll get a summary of that tomorrow with the roll-up, but also each individual dealer score and any comments they had. So I always highlight examples of that and might send it around or if there's a negative comment, hey, we follow up with any negative comments. Any dealer that scores us below 6 is going to get a call and say, hey, how can we learn from right? We do all that stuff. So it's a lot of just blocking and tackling and just, I think, fundamental reinforcing that aspect of our company.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#28

Getting into some of like the synergies across platforms, how integrated are commercial and the dealer businesses today in the sense that a dealer coming in for commercial inventory would naturally start to see relevant dealer inventory alongside it. And how much runway do you think is left for just a cross-platform synergy to build further? And we'll get will come to ASC in a bit.

Peter Kelly executive
#29

Yes. No, that's great. Listen, I do think there's fundamentally a positive synergy there. For those of you that don't know, but our commercial business, a lot of it happens on private label marketplaces for the OEMs. So a lot of our commercial transactions happen, if you like, in a different digital venue than our dealer transactions which happened in the OPENLANE branded marketplace. But some of the vehicles, some of the commercial vehicles flow into that marketplace as well if they're not sold in the private label. So one of the positives is a year ago, there was this question, well, off lease volumes are going to grow, but is that going to create a substitution effect with dealer? Like off-lease is going to grow and maybe dealer iwi decelerate. What we're actually seeing is off lease has grown and dealer has accelerated. right? And so that points I'm very pleased about that, by the way, I wasn't sure was going to happen. But that points to a more of a positive reinforcement that as we get more off-lease vehicles, that's going to attract dealers in they're going to see, oh, this is a marketplace where my competitor is offering care across the street. Maybe I should be selling in here or when I came in here to buy an off-lease car, but that looks a bit expensive. But here's 3 other similar vehicles that maybe one of these will work. So I think we're seeing some of those attributes. And so I take that as a positive. And again, we're expecting pretty good growth in the commercial side in the quarters to come right now for reasons we've talked about a lot. I'm hopeful that will be positive for our dealer business, too.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#30

Yes, we spent 22 minutes without or commercial this time. It's the first time ever. Commercial allies, I mean -- maybe on the ASC side, I feel like that is also an underappreciated aspect of like just the platform synergies. Just the difference between the percentage of dealers registered versus the ones actually transacting. Just remind us of like the opportunity there? And how are you actually maybe leaning into that a little more to list more cars.

Bradley Herring executive
#31

Yes, I'll take that. So there's about 15,000 dealers that participate in AFC, any given time, about 12,000, 13,000 of them have balances. So what we've talked about publicly is just over 60% of those dealers now are registered for OPENLANE to buy and to buy and sell all the OPENLANE platform. That's up sizably from where we were 24 months ago. It was probably in the 40s. underneath that, to your point, only about 1/3 of those or actually 1/4 or 1/3 of those are actually buying transactional cars, right? So we're seeing transactions about 1/3 of the which leaves a lot of runway. That's a lot of dealerships left. And keep in mind, those independent dealers, the majority of their inventory is actually coming from inventory that's acquired through an auction-type process. They're not taking a lot of trades. So they're buying most of their inventory from the wholesale process. So the fact that we have this small percent of penetration of actual transactors in that group leaves us another fuel to be the digital marketplace on the open side. So I think it's another kind of representation of how these 2 things are not completely separate assets. They're actually assets that comingle pretty well because not only is it flowing that way, but we're finding it's also flowing backwards. We're seeing pretty sizable growth in AFC now. And we think a portion of that growth now is actually coming from the marketplace. -- it's actually now transacting and now being offered AFC financing options on those purchases. So we're seeing a really cross collaboration between both sides.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#32

Right, right. Now I look forward to seeing more there. I think when you met last, you had given us an example of like just the efficiency of the digital model versus physical, where I think you gave us an example of like Texas, where you're selling the same number of cars physically and you're now selling the same number of cars digitally and the cost structure is like multiples lower. Maybe for the audience, if you could just run through that again. And just so that we can appreciate like how lower the cost structure is.

Peter Kelly executive
#33

Yes. Well, the commentary back then, I do recall that I think it was after our Q1 results. So the company did own a physical auction business, as I mentioned, to DASA. In the pre-COVID days, we had 4 physical locations in Texas in the 4 big metros Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin. And today, we don't have any of those facilities. purely digital model. So I think the comment I made that in Q1, our volumes in Texas were about dealer volumes we're about the same as our dealer volumes in the pre-COVID era out of those 4 facilities, but without the need for any of those facilities or any of the staff that was at those facilities. Instead, today, it's much more of it -- it's a local sales team, obviously, local inspectors as well then augmented with the digital platform and corporate support. So I just fundamentally think that, that is a more efficient model. But even with that, we're still in the probably teens of market share in the Texas market overall with a lot of growth runway ahead. Texas is a good market for us. But again, if we look at it -- so I think that's what I'm excited about in our business. We had a very good Q2, record dealer volumes, 30% growth in the U.S. But with that, we're about 10% of the total D2D market in the United States by my calculation. So there's a lot of growth runway here. I don't think it's going to be an overnight thing as we talked about, but I think there's no ceiling that I see. I think our digital platform is unique. good NPS scores, we're going to continue to lean in and drive that growth. And obviously, increase our profitability as we do that. It's not just growth for growth's sake.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#34

And then on the go-to-market side, I think you've mentioned like the return on investment is like it's a no-brainer to like keep investing in go to market. given the high returns and it's clearly showed up in the growth. What would stop you from like accelerating those investments? Is it just management bandwidth and making sure you're just not putting 2 million on the ground and...

Peter Kelly executive
#35

I think that's it. I think it's when you're onboarding 50 or 100 people, you want to make sure, I'm getting high-quality employee, Am I getting them bought into the culture of this organization going out, representing OPENLANE in the right way, are we measuring their success, right? So when you bring on any cohort, you're -- hopefully, you'll do well, but not everybody is going to succeed. So you have to sort of work through that as well. And then I think we kind of look at each cohort and say, have we hit a ceiling yet, like -- is the ROI for this cohort playing out like we would expect. And I think to this point, we felt really good about that. Now I will say, and we spoke on our earnings call about we're adding some more sort of fuel to the fire, if you like, here in the back half of the year. But some of this fuel in the back half of the year is into that operational infrastructure because the other ones maybe we're heavily biased towards sales and marketing, and it just put some stress on the fulfillment part of the business. So this 1 we're doing now is a bit more nuanced, inspection capacity, back office capacity for titles funds, customer support, but also some sales. We've also been leaning in, I'd say, into what of major dealer accounts. The major -- this industry continues to consolidate at a slow rate on the retail dealer side. And actually, to me, it seems like the top of the public 6, they're fairly static in terms of their size, maybe growing a little bit. It's the layer beneath, the groups that own 40 are now owning 50. But having a, we call it, major dealer accounts team, we've invested in that as well going -- because we're calling at the store level, but with major dealers, we also call the corporate level try and build relationships.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#36

That can help with stickiness.

Peter Kelly executive
#37

Yes. And we find the major dealers are very -- like if anything, our growth rate with those major dealers at top 150, the volume growth rate there is even higher than the volume growth rate. outside of that? Because I think they are -- it's like they are receptive to that. And they recognize that to be successful, we're going to have to embrace technology. And here is an example that seems -- could be helpful to our business.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#38

Understood. Makes sense. I have a question there.

Unknown Analyst analyst
#39

You mentioned do you think digital platform will, in time, take over for physical. Do your customers make more when they sell cars through your digital platform than through a physical?

Peter Kelly executive
#40

Do they make more money?

Unknown Analyst analyst
#41

Yes, is it better for them?

Peter Kelly executive
#42

I think there's data to suggest that some of them do or many of them do. I hesitate to say it's like too much out loud because that also means the buyers might be paying more, if that were true, right? But again, I was on a sales call with a major dealer team, and they were talking about a dealer group that just moved 20 stores to us. And I said, what was the triggering event. They said they had -- they were running a pilot for 5 of their stores. And when they analyze the numbers, they said we're getting $400 or $500 more on a net basis with openly, right? I remember going to an independent dealer just across the river here in New Jersey, and this is a little dated now, but I was talking to him and he had said, "Listen, I got to a point where I buy -- I only buy from openly. And I said, "I don't go to the physical auction anymore. I said, "Why is that?" -- and he said, "Well, -- he said I'm an owner operator. He said, when I went to the physical auction 2 days a week, I was away from my store. And I'd rather be here looking at my 5 employees, take keep an eye on the business, customers are walking through the door as and when. I can -- and he said, he then he said something interesting. He said, "I feel like I'm probably paying a little bit more for these cars than I would, if I went to the auction, but it's worth it because I have these other benefits, right? So our data suggests our customers are getting as good or better than they get in other channels. Let's just say that 1 and we're talking about 1% or 2%, 3%, something like that.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#43

Just 3 minutes left. I just ask on commercial off please. I'm going to cover commercial -- so we're pretty much like in the midst of the cycle there like starting to recover. I mean you obviously come you come into that business like with an area of composition of strength, a very high market share, which backs the question that these new other digital players trying to come into the space and it's kind of like more of an opportunity for them to gain share just given the presence and you have a very high share base. So how do you -- how are you protecting that top of funnel and the customer conversations?

Peter Kelly executive
#44

The customer conversations are good. We have a long history with these customers. We talk about how we run the upstream, the online off-lease programs for OEM brands. that represent about 70% of new car retail volume. That's kind of the stat we talk about, approximately 70%. Most of those relationships are long lasting. Some of them are in their second -- or into their third decade in some cases. We continue to invest in those relationships, provide a high quality of service. We do try to build in switching costs where we can. Normally, that is through deep integrations into their digital systems so that sticking those API connections sort of create stickiness and also try and do a great job for their dealers. If their dealers have no reason to complain, then the OEM has less reason to move. And as you know, probably from the yield economics that you see, we don't charge those sellers. So they're kind of like anchor tenants in our shopping mall in a way. They probably got the best rate per square foot, but they sort of create a foundation for the rest of the strategy.

Bradley Herring executive
#45

And we also talked about how that commercial inventory then feeds the halo effect in the dealer business, right? So that unique inventory, while we to Peter point, we do charge less for that inventory as it sits in the commercial business has a lot of value to us in terms of bringing eyes to the dealer side. other side. .

Rajat Gupta analyst
#46

Yes, right. Makes sense. I know we're like second half of '26, and this is a point of time in the year when investors are really trying to look at '27 and beyond. Any early peak into like '27? I know you have like this medium term, like mid-teens, marketplace EBITDA kicker, you're way outperforming that this year just 4 months since the Analyst Day. So just help us think through like puts and takes that we should look for in '27.

William Wright executive
#47

Well, I think we like, what Peter mentioned in terms of -- on the dealer side, let's talk about that first, we outpacing industry growth by a 10%, 15-ish percent range. So if the diesel -- if the industry is flat, we think we can go volumes better than that. I think we're going to continue to focus on our margin expansion, how this technology platform scales. That's an important metric. We look at very consistently. I think you should expect to continue to see some of that expansion. I think on the commercial side, we've talked before about the back half of this year is when the lease recovery really kind of starts to ramp. We expect that in 2025 -- I'm sorry, 2027, the tune of about 25%. What's going to be interesting is to see how much momentum we get in excess of that related to the drop in payoffs. That's still an unknown right now, but we're going to wait and see. In my mind, 25% growth next year is probably our starting point. anything on the payoffs could be helpful against that. Those are kind of the 2 real fundamentals when I think about growth for the dealer.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#48

And flattish on ASC kind of...

William Wright executive
#49

Flattish. I think AFC this year has outperformed a bit. The portfolio has grown a little bit more than we had expected, and risk has actually even come down a little better than expected. I think I think both of those 2 things start to normalize next year and get us in the flattish to plus low single digits maybe for next year.

Rajat Gupta analyst
#50

Understood. Awesome. I think we're just on time here, so Perfect. Yes. Thanks so much. Thank you for joining us.

Peter Kelly executive
#51

Thank you. Appreciate it.

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