Raspberry Pi Holdings plc (RPI) Earnings Call Transcript
September 24, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Raspberry Pi Holdings plc Interim Results 2026 Investor Presentation. [Operator Instructions] Before we begin, I would like to submit the poll. I would now like to hand you over to CEO, Eben Upton. Good afternoon.
Good afternoon, and welcome, everybody. Welcome to our 2026 interim results. I'm Eben, joined by my colleague, Richard. We're going to take you through the first half financial results of the business, give you some updates on progress against our strategy. But I think first, perhaps we could just take a quick look at some of the highlights of the half. I mean quite simply, this was an exceptional first half for us. So record revenue, record profitability in the business. We shipped over 4 million units. We shipped 4.2 million Raspberry Pi's in the half with our customer order backlog doubling to 2.6 million units. And all of this happened despite an incredibly challenging supply chain environment. Our diversified DRAM supplier base helped us weather the worst of that, helped us keep our products in production and in availability through the half. Despite these challenges, we kept innovating. The half saw 5 new product and platform launches, improving support for AI workloads on Raspberry Pi 5, helping our OEM users through the memory crisis by giving them more memory density options on RP4 and streamlining IoT deployments through improvements to our Raspberry Pi Connect platform. We kept investing in our OEM customers, too, making targeted hires into our commercial team and our board-to-board program continued to deliver traction in the smart home and defense sectors with a number of meetings with C-suite -- numbers of the C-suites of U.K. listed industrials. We kept investing in broader operational capacity, too. We hired Tim [indiscernible] in March as our first Chief Operating Officer. He and his team are already building the repeatable processes that will allow us to continue to scale our business without sacrificing the engineering-led culture, which makes Raspberry Pi, Raspberry Pi. And together, these developments give us confidence in our outlook for the rest of the year. We're expecting higher volumes in the second half than in the first half, and we're expecting full year adjusted EBITDA to be above market consensus. So now I'll hand over to Richard for the financials.
Great. So I think as Eben said, this was, I think, across all -- almost all metrics, a very good half. We had a strong improvement in unit volume. It continued to grow half-on-half, as you can see from the chart. It's really progressed from actually the end of 2024, each half, we've consistently grown, finishing at 4.2 million units. It was particularly good to see the demand was in compute modules, Raspberry Pi 4, Raspberry Pi 5, our higher margin, our higher-value boards, our latest boards. That indeed -- that demand was strong that left us with a backlog of units at the end of at the end of June 2026 compared to 600,000 at the end of 2025 to 2.6 million now. And so over the period, we've had to increase prices because of memory increases. But pleased to see how the demand for products has held up through that period. And indeed, the demand for our 4-gigabytes and 8-gigabyte versions of Pi 5, Pi 4 has continued to be very strong even though prices have had to go up. Overall, that gross profit per board improved significantly because of those price increases and also because of the benefit of memory that we had acquired at the end of 2025 at lower costs that we have used in that first half. So overall, we ended up with gross profit up to $59 million, up from $33 million a year ago, and that dropped through to a profit of adjusted EBITDA, our key profit metric of $40.3 million compared to $19.4 million in the first half of 2025. Sorry, forgive me. It's a slight remote control -- moving on to the next slide. Yes. 26% growth in our direct units. So overall, the units supplied by us, so manufactured in our factory with Sony in Wales grew by some 26%. The volumes with Farnell were a bit slower. And overall, we ended up with volumes up 17%. That was again, as I said earlier, particularly strong growth in compute modules and Pi 5, Pi 4. We saw lower growth, probably slightly negative actually in the case of Pico and Zero, which you may know are our lower cost boards. In the case of Zero, that volume was limited by access to supply. Our packager of the processor chip in Taiwan was somewhat distracted by data centers. That is now resolved, and that's part of the backlog reduction that we expect to see in the second half. So overall, strong performance on units. That translated into a strong growth in revenue. So with the increase in units and also an increase in the average selling price. As I said, we increased our prices because of us needing to pass through the increased cost of memory. So our prices went up about 42%, leading to an over 90% increase in revenue through the period. Our revenue is -- comprises a mixture of things. It includes royalty income for Farnell. It includes the direct sales to boards, includes the sale of accessories and also includes the sale of memory chips and processor chips to Farnell to make Raspberry Pi's. So it really does have a number of different things with quite different margin structures. So when we look at the business, we focus more on gross profit and in particular, gross profit per unit combined with the number of units that we've sold. Gross profit overall increased by 79% due to those higher sales I've talked about and also this improvement in gross profit per board. Gross profit per board, so that's the profit we're making from sale of boards divided by the total number of boards in the period, increased by 53% from $8 in the first half of last year to $12.20 in this half. That reflected a combination of factors. It was the increase in the prices that we were selling and actually the way in which those took effect once we announced them. But also this benefit of inventory that we brought in to the beginning of the year where we had bought at significantly lower prices before the increase in memory costs that we've seen really in the last 6 months to 9 months. That beneficial effect has probably been largely consumed now by the time in the middle of the year. I think it's fair to say that the current cost of inventory that we are now holding, we're now putting into boards is much closer to the price at which we would buy further inventory at the moment. The other standout was accessories. We had a very good half for Accessories compared to the number of boards sold. It grew that gross profit per boards increased by -- sorry, the gross profit increased by 90% to $7.8 million compared to about half of that number 1 year ago, at a number of about $1.90 per board sold, which is well above our target that we set ourselves of $1 per board. We saw particularly strong growth in Compute, in Cameras, in SD cards, Displays, but also in AI Hats that we work -- we put together with our friends at Halo, and we sell as an add-on to the Raspberry Pi, the Raspberry Pi is giving you additional compute for -- particularly for AI models such as neural compilation neural networks or also for large language models on the latest version with Halo. Overall, so a strong growth of gross profit in the period. Moving on to the next slide. Just putting those together in terms of how did our EBITDA evolve through. We came into first half of last year was $19.4 million. Unit growth has given us probably nearly $5 million of additional profit, so the additional units. That gross profit per board, so moving from $8 to $12 for each of those boards is probably worth nearly $18 million of additional profit. Some of that clearly because of the memory that we brought in and also some orders that we had placed in the tail-end of '25 at particularly good prices this year. We think the value of that was probably a one-off, if you will, of somewhere between $10 million or $15 million. And then the appreciation accessories. And then in terms of overheads, the research and development expenditure that we have that is not capitalized. It's research and development, it's research, it's software development, which typically we don't capitalize. That increased by about $700,000. That's predominantly some more heads, but also inflation and salary increases. And then adjusted administrative costs, this is more of the general central team, be that sales, be it [indiscernible] like myself, that grew by about $4.6 million. That was a combination of -- there were some one-off effects of foreign exchange. There's some additional bonuses reflecting this much stronger performance. That was probably -- there's about $1 million of extra accrual, $1.5 million there. And the remainder is really headcount increases and increases in salaries generally across the team. Allowing for those, we ended with the half with a result of $40.3 million of EBITDA. The next slide sets out the income statement, very much the matters we've just covered recently. I'm going to skip over that one. And I am going to move on to the description of the balance sheet here, but I think the best way to express that is in the cash flow and how our cash flow has moved across the period. We came into the beginning of this year with $28 million of cash. EBITDA, the profits that we've just been talking about contributed $40 million. We've then spent significantly on inventory. That is almost entirely that increase in inventory that we are now carrying is $106 million of that is purchases of DRAM that we use in our boards. I think that has -- and that is the position at the end of June. That's put us into a much stronger position in terms of having nearly 3-months of inventory. We've continued to add to that recently such that we have good confidence that we can meet our production plans for the remainder of this year and into the first quarter of next year. But that memory, obviously, these days is at a significantly higher price than it was a few years ago. That inventory at the end of June that was funded in part by payables. We bought significant amounts in June itself, and therefore, there was a payable at the end of the period. That has started to reduce. So this is where we've seen a cash outflow continuing post the end of June. And therefore, we're drawing on our bank facilities. We increased those facilities to $140 million of committed funds. That was completed in early July, which has given us a position where we're able to buy inventory where the opportunity arises to secure that future production to secure good prices on the products such that we can maintain an attractive level of profitability. But I think it's fair to say that in the second half, the profit per unit will come down as those memory costs now are closer to market levels rather than based on prices from very good historic purchases. Receivables also, we saw some outflow in those as at the end of June. That was really a function of just how strong trading in the month of June was a very active month, obviously, compared to December, which is a quieter month by the end of the month itself. But also just generally trading has been so much more -- so much stronger with real momentum coming into the second half. We spent about $11 million on CapEx in the first half, very consistent with the guidance that we've given for the last few years of about $20 million of CapEx for any full year. So that continues. A little bit of tax, leaving us with a closing position of about $8.4 million of tax. As I say, I think in the second half, those payables will reduce. They were particularly high at the end of June. And we also expect to be buying and holding quite a bit of memory. We can see the opportunity to do so. That will leave us probably with acquiring further inventory such that we would expect to see our debt levels at, say, $40 million to $50 million. But I think we should flag that if opportunities arise, if there are good prices, if there is the opportunity to acquire the right memory, we will utilize the additional -- some of the additional headroom we have on the bank facilities to add to that inventory to make sure that we go into next year, in a particularly strong shape. Just touching on a final slide from me. Memory purchases. I think one of the things that's notable is compared to the announcement that we made in early June about how strong trading was, a lot of the numbers I've talked about here are very much in line with that. I think to me, the additional feature, the additional new news probably is the strength of our position with memory purchases. I think Mike [indiscernible], our Chief Commercial Officer, has done a phenomenal job of talking to packages, manufacturers of memory to secure that. And that position, I think, it is a step forward from where we were even 2 months or 3 months ago. How have we got into that position with a stronger position on memory? We've diversified suppliers. We now have approximately 7 different companies providing memory to us compared to 2, a year ago. We have used our engineering skills to technically innovate to actually allow us to use two, 1 gigabyte pieces of DRAM to create a 2-gigabyte board. I'm not sure I got the math right on that. And two lots of two to make four, which is binary, how easy. Similarly, on pricing, we have, I think, minimized the disruption to our customers' expectations of us by communicating quite clearly the reasons for price increases to be seen to be passing through price increases rather than caring on selected products and really also providing in terms of a Raspberry Pi 3-gigabyte variant, additional options for customers who maybe did not want to go to suffer the whole of a price increase that was necessary. And we continue to make strategic purchases. We have seen the opportunity with our balance sheet, with our connections, our reputation to make further purchases from suppliers who, in certain cases, are keen to establish a presence elsewhere and we have been a very good -- we seem to be a very good partner to them in achieving that. So I think overall, a lot of activity in terms of securing memory, and that's put us into a stronger position than we were, say, 3 months ago. And I think in that good position, hand over to Eben to talk some more.
Thank you, Richard. So before we dive into the strategy update, just to recap about the three pillars of our growth strategy. Firstly, obviously, to grow unit sales through investment in channel and through increasingly through our board-to-board program through direct outreach to OEMs. Then for each of those units we sell, aiming to grow the unit profit margin, that's both through engineering, to grind cost out of the platform and over time to acquire a larger share of the silicon bill of materials in each device. And the gradual migration, and we've seen this continue this year, the gradual migration of our customers to higher density SKUs. Even in this constrained DRAM environment, we have seen an increasing preference from many of our customers for higher density SKUs. So higher density SKUs, the higher ASP SKUs and that higher ASP brings with it a higher unit profit. And then finally, growing our margin participation, growing our participation in that margin. Obviously, the bard-to-board initiative, particularly fertile source of direct relationships with OEMs of our three different routes to market, the direct to OEM route is the route that allows us to capture the larger share of that unit profit margin in the device. A little bit more detail about product launches. As we said, 5 launches in the half. That is a relatively quiet half for us compared to recent years, but with some real strategic highlights that I think speak to the strategic direction of the business. At the start of the half, the second-generation Raspberry Pi AI Hat accessory codeveloped with our friends at Halo and bringing generative AI capabilities to the platform. The original AI accessory very much focused on vision operations, are very much focused on the classical network architectures, so convolution neural network architectures. This new product brings with it both the ability to run small and large language models and vision language models and also on the vision side, the more modern architectures, so transformer based, vision transformer-based classification algorithms. In the middle of the period, the 3 gigabyte variant of Raspberry Pi 4, that's in direct response to specific OEM requests for an intermediate density point. We continue to be surprised by the extent to which our OEM customers aren't trading down. If anything, they're trading up for memory, but we do have OEM customers who welcome the opportunity to invest fixed cost to do engineering -- to make engineering investments to take memory requirements out of their software platforms, providing for -- if you think of the 4-gig products really the heart in our modern products, the Raspberry Pi 4 and Raspberry Pi 5, 4-gigabytes really is the heart of the business. We have an enormous number of 4 gigabyte OEM customers. It is challenging for a 4-gigabyte customer to come down to 2-gigabytes by providing that intermediate density point on the Raspberry Pi 4 platform, we're able to serve those customers who want to trade engineering effort for unit cost. And then not quite in the half, just off the end, just into the start in July at the start of this half. We have the Programming Jig for Compute Module 5. This is our -- part of our offering to our OEM customers who would be able to program Raspberry Pi Compute Modules in production at scale, designed to integrate with some of the work we've done on our Operating System assembly and Imaging over the last couple of years. And in parallel with all these efforts, of course, we've seen a series of upgrades to Raspberry Pi Connect, our IT cloud platform. Very different cadence for this from what I'm certainly used to. Certainly, if you imagine the cadence of hardware releases being on the order of years, the cadence of operating -- operating system software releases being on the order of months, quarters or months. This is a product which has seen multiple upgrades with a cadence of weeks across the half, seeing continued -- that's driving continued strong growth in adoption, both of the baseline Raspberry Pi Connect platform, for free Connect platform and the paid for Raspberry Pi Connect organizations platform. Now we love case study slides. We couldn't not feature this one, I think, in the slide deck. FormLabs, 3D printer company, they're a long-time Raspberry Pi adopter, a very loyal adopter of Raspberry Pi technology, outsourcing as with many of our OEM customers, outsourcing really the intelligence element, the compute element at the heart of their professional 3D printers to us, a wonderful gesture, I guess -- every time an OEM makes that choice, it is a gesture of commitment, it's a gesture of faith in the Raspberry Pi organization and the Raspberry Pi platform. And it was wonderful to see the format Raspberry Pi powered FormLabs 3D printer taking private place in one of the videos that we shown this month's Apple event. So these devices really do get absolutely everywhere. Really, this is the -- we talked a little bit about products. But really, I think the news about this half for us is it's been a period of organizational transformation for Raspberry Pi. We've been growing. We've been evolving the executive team inside the organization. In March, we appointed Tim [indiscernible], a very old friend of mine, as our very first Chief Operating Officer. And then this is Richard's last appearance in a results presentation. [ Tim Powell ] will be succeeding Richard as Chief Financial Officer from the end of next month. We've been making targeted hires across the rest of the organization as well in engineering, in operations, in finance and in enterprise, sales as we aim to both increase the organization's ability to develop innovative new products and then our ability to support those -- to sell and support those products into our enthusiast, our industrial and our OEM customer base. There's been a focus in the new operations organization under Tim. There's been a focus really on building the capabilities, the structures and capabilities that we need to support the next phase of Raspberry Pi's growth. This is across the organization in engineering operations, but with a particular focus on manufacturing and supply chain operations, really driving Sony, our manufacturing partner for the majority of our products, driving their production capacity out to 1 million units a month, which is where we believe it needs to be in order to support our growth ambitions over the next few years. We've been expanding the commercial team as well, both colleagues who support our approved reseller and authorized distributor channel and the partners who support the growing number of direct OEM engagements within the business. As we've deepened our relation -- our direct relationship with OEMs, particularly with the OEMs who we meet through our Board program, these tend to be larger potential opportunities, but they also tend to be opportunities which may require more targeted support from our organization to get those opportunities over the line. So we've been making those investments in our application engineering team to sustain -- to be able to sustain those engagements even as they require a little bit more touch, as I say, to get them over the line. A word on competitive landscape. It really is a rapidly changing competitive environment at the moment. And I think what we're seeing is we're seeing Raspberry Pi's core brand values, our very long-standing core brand values, our industry-leading cost structure, which is underpinned both by proprietary technology and by that end-to-end engineering culture we've built that really can go hunting for cost optimization opportunities throughout the entire technology stack. Our commitments to the very long-term support and very long-term availability of our products and the unmatched organic ecosystem that's grown up around Raspberry Pi. So these are our long-standing brand values. And I think what we're seeing this year, we've seen over the last couple of years, is we're starting to intersect with a set of new imperatives in this more complex environment we're living in. So we're seeing a greater emphasis in many of our markets on sovereign capability, for our American customers, North America, the United States accounts for roughly 1/3 of our business. And in that environment, our customers have a particular focus now on the tariff implications of the tariff behavior of their supply chain. And there, we are building our products, building the vast majority of our products in the United Kingdom. We are differentially advantaged from a tariff perspective versus almost any other nondomestic manufacturing location for an American customer. And finally, we see a growing amount of regulatory burden, growing regulatory burden on our customers who are building connected products, our customers who are building IoT products are having to comply with an increasingly strict set of requirements in order to be able to legally ship those, the cyber is the most obvious example. It is increasingly important not just to be able to build products, but to keep those products secure over time, to have a story about how you keep them secure over time, an evidenced story about how you expect to keep those products secure over time. And you're not just generating when you build a software image for your system, you're not just generating software, of course, you're also generating compliance after tax, which must be synchronized with that software build. And many of the investments that we've made over the last few years in deepening the Raspberry Pi software ecosystem are really coming to bear and are becoming increasingly salient as people as many of our OEM customers, many of our IoT-focused OEM customers are confronting some of those challenges. And of course, all of this is happening in a much more challenging supply chain environment. I think we are seeing signs this year one of the drivers of growth in sales, one of the drivers of growth in our backlog has been what we might call a flight to quality that we have OEM customers we are meeting just as our existing OEM customers continue to scale and as the pipeline that we brought with us into the year continues to mature, we are also seeing new OEM engagements, which are driven by the -- by our OEMs who have designed with other modular platforms, OEMs who have chosen to outsource compute to other vendors where those vendors are now struggling to keep their products in production or OEMs who have chosen the in-house engineering solution, OEMs who have chosen to make rather than to buy those in-house teams may also be struggling to secure the components they need. So we are seeing people coming to us as a trusted partner to see them through this supply chain environment. And of course, for us, that is an opportunity to meet new customers. It's an opportunity to get in the face of new customers, to be service to those customers. And hopefully, many of those customers will remain with us even after the present supply chain environment has improved a little bit. Some -- a few brief words on AI. We all know that we are living in an age of AI-related disruption. This couples into our business in numerous ways. Obviously, we've already talked about some of the supply chain impacts of competing with the AI, the hyperscaler AI build-out for access to a number of components, most notably storage components, volatile and nonvolatile memory. But I think the more we see so many of our customers the applications that our IoT OEM customers are running have a very strong AI flavor to them. And the more we see of how our customers are using AI, the more convinced we become that there is a significant opportunity for us here. We believe the thesis is that there is a centrifugal tendency over time, a tendency for AI compute to migrate from the center of the network, any given AI technology, any given AI technique may start at the center of the network. And over time, as the devices at the edge of the network [indiscernible] and as research effort in AI drives down the compute requirement of a specific level of performance, that compute that starts from the center of the network will naturally migrate to the edge, bringing -- and as it migrates to the edge, that migration brings with it improvements in reliability, in cost structure, in privacy and in security. This does feel like a general rule. We absolutely see it today in Visual AI. Many of our largest, many of our highest volume OEM customers today are using Raspberry Pi platforms to run visual AI algorithms, which would have been inconceivable to run at the edge of the network a decade ago. We are seeing the same thing already happen in generative AI. We are seeing a collapse in the compute requirements of a given level of generative AI performance. And so we believe that, that transition from the center to the edge of the network, which has taken roughly 10 years in the previous AI applications and visual AI applications is likely to take place over the next 2 or 3 or 4 years in generative. By the end of the decade, the vast majority of inference operations for generative AI will happen at the edge rather than core network. These AI -- these trends in AI are driving demand across a very broad range of markets. I'm going to call out two today, both being smart home and aerospace and defense. So some words on smart home, smart environments. Customers like Homey are using Raspberry Pi technology, another very long-standing, extremely loyal Raspberry Pi customer. They're using the Raspberry Pi platform to build intelligence into our everyday interactions with our environment. I love this quote from Emile, we didn't have to reinvent the wheel. And he says that really what he's doing there is he's articulating the core of the Raspberry Pi value proposition to our OEM customers that you don't have to become a computer company. If you want to embed intelligence into a product at the edge of the network. You should -- you don't have to -- you should know how to become a computer company. You should be able to find some to outsource that to. It's our aspiration to win that argument. And when we've got that argument, then to win the argument that the natural person to outsource this to is Raspberry Pi. This outsourcing is, I think a very long-term trend that's been to our benefit over the last few years, and it's been accelerated by the challenges around pricing and availability, as I've said, by some of the challenges around regulatory complexity. And of course, lastly, by the challenges associated with acquiring embedded engineering talent. Many of our OEM customers are coming to us for compute solutions in order to avoid the -- not just the cost, but the administrative complexity of building and maintaining a team which can build and maintain in production the compute element at the heart of their platform. We're allowing people to focus on the differentiating on the value add on the differentiating engineering, on the non-differentiating engineering of being a computer company. And then defense, becoming an increasingly important potential market for us. There are a number of secular demand drivers going obviously here in the background, a trend in the West towards [indiscernible], a recognition that we have probably wound down the size of our armed forces other than [indiscernible], a growing recognition driven probably by some of the experiences that are happening today in Ukraine, of the importance of autonomy of advanced autonomy of distributed decision-making in mobile platforms, a pivot away, I think, from what we might call exquisite platforms towards high-cost low-volume platforms with very long development times with development times on the order of decades towards lower cost, [indiscernible], lower-cost consumable platforms and enabling that transition a move from only using military specification electronics to a growing focus on COS, commercial off-the-shelf technology, as I say, as an enabler both for the cost and the availability and sustainability of these platforms. As we look more at the defense market, really struck by the range of applications that Raspberry Pi fits very neatly into, whether that's fixed hardware backup base, whether it's driving display screens or aggregating data in a fixed location, whether they are -- whether it is deployed static hardware, so sensor platforms in the field, RFD [indiscernible] in the field or whether it's providing intelligence and autonomy or mobile unmanned platforms like UAVs, USBs and UGVs. And all of these markets, just like our commercial customers, all of these markets stand to benefit from Raspberry Pi's distinctive value proposition, industry-leading price and performance, availability and long-term support and the ability to manufacture these products and sustain them at scale. A word on silicon. Silicon really remains at the heart of Raspberry Pi's medium-term growth strategy. It has been and it continues to be an enabler for our single compute module business. We build silicon because it allows us to build better board-level products, better modules, better SBCs than we could build otherwise. But increasingly, it's becoming a business for us in our own right, in its own right. We saw lower sales. We saw slightly lower sales in the first half of 2026 than we did in the comparable period in 2025. It was a strong comparable period. I think we had a number of large OEM orders in that period. But then we followed July and August this year, absolutely fantastic months. August, in particular, a record month for sales of the RP2350 platform, the 2-year-old second-generation microcontroller platform, particularly strong sales, particularly strong and particularly broad-based sales of our products in China. We continue to develop engagements with Tier 1 and Tier 2 OEMs in the West. That's inevitably a slower burn because of the Western engineering culture is inevitably a slower engineering culture, but we are confident that those will mature in due course into design wins. We have taped out in the second half in the last month. We have taken out our next-generation semiconductor product. We expect to get that back at the start of next year. And that may in due course, lead to future board products, future innovative board products and future stand-alone semiconductor products. And finally, a word on outlook. We expect the second half volumes to be higher than first half volumes. What's going on there? Continued extremely strong demand. The backlogs that we both referred to earlier, are 2.6 million units at the end of the first half. Those are large backlogs. They're probably emerging on unhealthily large backlog. So there is a great focus of the organization at the moment on reducing those backlogs, not to zero, but the aspiration is to get those backlogs back towards the level they were at the start of the year. To support that, we've been making a number of co-investments with our partners at Sony in order to increase their production rate, and we expect that Q4, we'll see the full benefit of all of those investments. Despite this taper off, we saw some exceptional unit economics in the first half of the year as some of the price increases that we put through interacted with the low-cost inventory that we were holding that we came into the year holding. Despite the taper off of those exceptional economics, we do, as a result of those increased unit volumes, expect adjusted EBITDA to exceed market estimates somewhat. We are now holding up. We have enough ram in our hands and on secure order to meet our requirements for the remainder of this year and into next year. And we're excited about what 2027 and 2028 will bring for us. So I'm now happy to take questions.
[Operator Instructions] I would like to remind you that recording of this present along with a copy of the slides and the published Q&A can be accessed by investor dashboard. Eben and Richard as as you can see we have received a number of questions throughout today's presentation. And if I may hand back to kindly ask you to read out the questions where appropriate to do so, and I'll pick up for you both at the end. Thank you.
Okay. So you're going to read them out I'm going to read them out. I'm going to familiarize myself with the order they arrived in. What new products are in development?
I think we share with another frame company a tendency not necessarily to talk enormously about what products we have in development. I mean I think we can say it's uncontroversial to say that we obviously need to be starting to think about the next generation of our 2 platforms. So we need to be thinking about the next generation of the big Raspberry Pi platform, the [indiscernible] platform, the thing which will eventually become Raspberry Pi 6 and the next generation of the smaller microcontroller platforms, the things which will generate both Raspberry Pi Pico 3 and the next-generation RP2 Series microcontroller. Obviously, we are still some distance on both of those platforms are still fairly 5 and 2 platforms are still fairly new. But certainly, we're now reaching a point in their life cycle where I think attention does turn to future products. I think we've said that you're likely to see more Raspberry Pi Pico 2 products, the Raspberry Pi Pico generation, we have the Pico products and the Pico W product, the wireless and non-wireless product. I think it's likely you will see from us over the next 12 to 18 months, you're likely to see from us Pico 2 products which, have a broad range of networking spaces. We've talked about that in the past. And pretty much all of those, you think about what are the big hit accessory items, power supplies, displays, cameras. I think it's fairly likely that we will try to find ways to extend that as we get a better understanding of what -- how our various customers, our enthusiast customers, our industrial [indiscernible] independent customers, as we get a better idea of what they appreciate, what they like and what they don't like about our existing offering in that space, I think you'll see us -- you'll see us broaden that offer out over a little bit.
6 generally follows 5.
Yes, usually.
I got a couple of questions here.
1 plus 1 is 2. I got that right. I have to thikn hard.
There's a couple of questions in here about our relationship with Arm. How is that relationship developing? What's it like having them as a shareholder? I mean...
I mean they've been an enormous -- Arm has been enormously supportive shareholder. Obviously, they were a pre-IPO investor. They cornerstone the IPO. They bought a certain amount of the foundation [indiscernible] in April and Arm participated in that secondary sale. So they've been a very supportive shareholder. I think I often think of the sort of the substance of the question is what is having Arm as a shareholder done to the strategic relationship? I think I've always viewed this the other way around. I've always seen this as a shareholding recognizing, validating being a consequence of an existing strategic relationship. We have been -- every Raspberry Pi is an Arm computer. A huge number of Arm PC [indiscernible] 1980s have a great affection [indiscernible] have a great affection for the Arm architecture for. So this is something that has always been important to us. I think that having the opportunity to have Arm as a shareholder has been very helpful for us. It has deepened the level, I think, which we can have these strategic discussions with them. There will be many more Arm-based products in the future. I think they're excited about it. We see the -- we've seen the products they've announced. We are excited about.
They engage at all levels, senior levels within all as well.
We get very support for them. We're excited about the core road map. We're excited about the technology road map. We're excited about finding ways to integrate that road map with our own road map to keep building more high-performance Arm-based products. We are very happy we are a very happy Arm partner. Very happy Arm licensee, very happy Arm partner. The Arm partener meeting in August is an absolute highlight.
[indiscernible] won't mean to you when you released the RS5.
Indeed.
What steps have been taken to ensure we remain a U.K. public company? As a U.K. shareholder would be extremely disappointing to see us take over by a foreign entity.
I mean I'm not sure there is an enormous amount -- there are enormous number of specific things one can do here other than we do our best. We are very prudent.
We try to be as amusing and entertaining in meetings like this to satisfy our U.K. shareholders that they continue to want to be independent rather than...
So we are -- look, we're a proud U.K. listed public company. We chose to list in the U.K. We design our products in the U.K. We manufacture our products in the U.K. We are listed in the U.K. We don't do any of these things for -- I don't think we do any of these things for [indiscernible] reasons. We do these things because we believe that the U.K. is the best place to do each of those three things. So we are -- we've had a fantastic experience, I think, as a U.K. [indiscernible] our aspiration, what are we trying to grow here? We are trying to build a globally meaningful business from the U.K., based in the U.K., listed in the U.K., manufacturing in the U.K. And while we have the opportunity to, we will continue to do that.
We have a CRA question? Yes.
The cyber resilience question. So this is sort of -- a couple of questions about the EU Cyber Resilience Act and the requirement for full compliance in December next year. I think this is something that we have seen something we've seen coming for a long time. It is -- it drove over the kind of 5 years, I guess, over the period that we designed Raspberry Pi 5, the awareness that there was going to be increasing government action and increasing government awareness around IoT and security drove the incorporation into the Raspberry Pi 5 hardware platform and the Raspberry Pi 2350, the second-generation microcontroller drove the incorporation of hardware features. It was pretty clear what hardware features would be required in order to allow -- to give people the potential to build compliance solutions. There's then a software layer on top of that. So we have largely by, I guess, 2 years ago when we launched 2350, we've largely completed the process of delivering the underpinnings of CRA compliance. What you've seen subsequently is then building out both the software level required, particularly some of these for secure updates, secure firmware updates on our platform, but also then the tools that people need in order to build the regulatory [indiscernible] certification that sit alongside. So it's no longer enough to build a [indiscernible].
I think the first bit we did because it's the right thing to do.
Yes, that's right. And you no longer -- it's not sufficient to simply build the thermal image. You have to create the certification reg have to be able to generate the [indiscernible] as well. And so a lot of those investments that we made in automating, systematizing the process of building the software image for Raspberry Pi IoT device have the design of those systems incorporated the knowledge that people were going to have to [indiscernible] the CRA. So I think that's going well. In terms of its impact on us as a business, it is driving -- we already see it driving a tendency to use our software, not just to buy our hardware devices, but to use our software and to use our systems when you assemble the firware. And that's extremely attractive for us because it increases the stickiness of the platform makes for our customers. It increases the stickiness of the platform. Once you design Raspberry Pi and that's working well, it increases the switching cost away from Raspberry Pi. So I think this is something where like many of these things, you see a difficult thing, you see a challenge. And at first, you are sad but then you're going to have to do some work. And then after a little while, you realize having done that work, that work becomes a plan in your story of our competitive advantage.
Like I said a few times to investors, if you want to buy shares in Raspberry Pi spend some money on buying a competitor's product first, I would just appreciate the quality of what we've made.
The other question was about the U.K. government. We expect and whether we are engaged with the U.K. government on this, particularly around ensuring that whatever legislation is passed, permits you to continue to adopt open source software development methods. We are not specifically engaged on this. We do expect the U.K. government to largely be a follower here. We don't expect the government here in the U.K. to diverge meaningfully from European -- Continental European practice. And we believe that it is unlikely that the European approach to this will evolve in ways which are in [indiscernible] to people's ability to use open source. I think there is a broad consensus actually that open source approaches are the approaches -- actually open source approaches allied to machine learning tool to AI tools are the way to build systems, which have that level of robustness to you have to deploy [indiscernible].
Changing gears. What's our expectation for unit sales in semiconductor business this year and in the medium term? How quickly should we expect this business to grow? I mean I think in the short term, we're talking microcontroller sales would be very sad if it doesn't start with [indiscernible] this year. So probably in the sort of 10 to 12 scale.
I think you can put a box around it, which is this is, let's say, on the order of 30 million units on the order of 30 million units we have an aspiration. There are -- it's an [indiscernible]. It's a [indiscernible] roughly 75% to 80% of that goes to 5 vendors who I probably can't given [indiscernible] day. But the remainder of that market is actually quite [indiscernible] -- and so an aspiration to go or [indiscernible] of that market is not at all. So I think we have an aspiration to grow the business out of hundreds of millions of units. I think that getting into double-digit mill is an important step along the we still have to sustain. We've seen a great growth rate in these products since we launched them 5 years ago. I think we have to sustain that growth rate. And obviously it becomes easier and harder to sustain. As you get bigger, it becomes easier and harder I think there is an aspiration to do that. Where do we want to be? I think we said very consistently, a decade after the IPO, the aspiration is to have grown the traditional business, the modules business significantly and -- but for semiconductors to come up alongside that come up underneath that to a point where they're roughly comparable. Now some of the heavy lifting, I think, will be done by ASP. I'm sure some of the products we produce in the future will have higher ASPs, but a lot of that has to be done. So I think we have -- there are sort of two directions in which we are saying the business really needs to find a way into at least hundreds of millions of units a year of silicon in order to meet those in order to feel that we are -- these are exceptional pieces of hardware where they really are. They are I think [indiscernible] microcontrollers. The better an engineer is the more attractive they are to the Raspberry Pi silicon platform. So I think we have something that's very compelling. I think if we aren't able to get into that regime, then I would personally feel that we somehow taking a great product technically, we will fail in translating that technical excellence into market.
Yes. And a quick one from reference market consensus for adjusted EBITDA for the full year? I think we're seeing numbers in the sort of range of low [ 60s, 60, 65, I think ], across the spread of analysts that we...
I think when we reference market consensus there that is market consensus as of yesterday evening. So I think market this morning. So this is market I think we conveying a belief that, that prior consensus was a little conservative relative to how we see the business performing in the full year.
When do you expect to make a positive free cash flow? It is not something that is alien to us as an organization. I mean I think from 2012 through to even after I arrived, we were generating -- it wasn't just me. We have -- I think over the last few years, we have invested significantly in CapEx. But more importantly, we have risen through a very turbulent supply chain period. We've taken that opportunity to use our balance sheet. Yes, we've ended up with negative free cash flow. I think the answer to this question is probably when do we think the turbulence and crisis over memory is going to stop. If we believe that is in 2028, which I think is probably now the earliest point, ideally when additional fab capacity overwhelms the demand from data centers, that is a period where we should see some scope to start to reduce inventory levels or at least hold them steady while the business is bigger.
I think you're in a situation at the moment where you're holding quite a lot of DRAM because you want to make sure that in the event of an availability shock, you are able to make product. And at the same time, holding that DRAM is expensive because DRAM is expensive. I think at the point where the market when the cycle flips over, I don't think you're necessarily going to see us holding between 3 or 4 months of DRAM at the moment. I think if the market flips over, you're not going to see us holding 3 or 4 months of DRAM. And even if we were holding 3 or 4 months of DRAM, that would be much less cash. So I think it is -- had we not -- I suspect we would be that we will generate positive free cash flow now if we have not had a memory shock. I'm pretty confident that once we get out the other end of this, the business will revert. I still believe having run the business since 2012, what I still believe is the natural that [indiscernible] Raspberry Pi it is a fairly cash generative business. Okay.
Probably margins have been improving lately, but are below the 2021 level. Is the plan to return to those levels? Or is that unrealistic? I think from margin here, we're talking about gross profit as a percentage of revenue. That is something that I think as we talked about before, our revenue number does include a number of different lines with really quite different margin structures. The royalty income that was, I think, in 2021, 75% of our unit volume was going through Farnell at near 100% margin, whereas now 75%, 80% is direct. So the Farnell licensee piece is only 20%. So I think it will be some time before we think about going back to a 2021 level. The way that we view the business, certainly I do is based on that gross profit per unit, what dollars are we making for each board that allows us to stand back from which route is it going to market and really focus on what profit does it make rather than focusing on a percentage. I think if we tried to maintain a margin percentage in this most recent year, if we continue to press for that with prices going up so much, we would have increased our -- yes, we would have a temporary boost to profit, but I think we would have opened up some quite frightening opportunities for competitors, particularly in the Far East to come and take away our very strong presence across all customers.
It would have been a breach of faith with our OEM customers. I referred to a couple of very loyal customers there during the presentation. When some of these designs for Raspberry Pi into the product, even without the CRA sort of enhancements, it is an incredibly sticky sockets. We are constantly alive to any perception that we are exploiting the stickiness of those sockets in order to extract value from our OEM customers. The decision to pass through DRAM costs rather than margin and passing DRAM costs through both ourselves and our channel structure has been one it's one of the most challenging decisions that I've had to make in my time at Raspberry Pi, I think it has been the right decision. It does have -- it will have a negative effect on percentage margin. But as Richard says, when we manage the business, we manage the business to units. What do I look at every day? Units, look at gross profit, it's that decomposition of overall gross profit that has my attention everytime.
And I think we've talked about that over many years that it's remarkable the business that you've built and talked about across the world that we've not seen a significant default on this business by low-cost competitors in China.
About that [indiscernible].
That's great guys. Sorry to interject. We are coming up to the hour. So Eben, if I may just ask you for some closing comments to wrap up.
Thank you. So this has been a spectacular half. I think it has been -- we have had -- as I said, we're a proud U.K. listed company. We've had a good experience as a PLC. This has been by far the best half year. This has been by far the best period. It's been wonderful to demonstrate the business' resilience during what is an extremely challenging time. It is -- more than anything else, it has been extremely satisfying to have been able to be a service to our customers, our enthusiast customers, our embedded customers, our industrial customers to able to keep our product in production, to have been able to use some of our strategic memory inventory to minimize the buffer and minimize and delay the impact of some of these cost structure changes on the platform. We hope that people understand the effort in the organization. And last words, I'd like to take the opportunity as i said this is Richard's last set of results. He's been with us since 2019. He was our first full-time Chief Financial Officer, really a measure of the extent to which the business has evolved over the last 7 years. So I would just really very much like to thank Richard and friendship as we took the business through just quite the most remarkable period of [indiscernible].
Guys. Thank you very much once again for updating investors today. Could I please ask investors not to close this session as you now be automatically redirected to provide your feedback, which will help the company better understand your views and expectations. On behalf of the management team, we would like to thank you for attending today's presentation, and good afternoon to you all.
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