RENK Group AG (R3NK) Earnings Call Transcript
August 13, 2024
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Yes. Thank you very much, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining our today's results call despite the holiday period. As usual, speakers on today's call will be our CEO, Susanne Wiegand; and our CFO, Christian Schulz. We're also joined in the room by the entire Management Board of RENK, including our Chief Operating Officer, Alexander Sagel. We also have our designated CFO, Anja Mänz-Siebje in the room. Her ability to join our meeting is quicker than my ability to update slides apparently. She is not in the slide, but she is in the room and Susanne and Christian will be our speakers for today. Over to you, Susanne.
Thank you, Ingo. Welcome from my side, from our side. Thank you for joining and taking the time during this holiday period. I would start on Slide 4 which you know, just to recall last year's figures. So you see here on that slide a concise summary of key financial metrics and revenue splits. Last year in 2023, 70% of our revenue rate with defense-related applications and our aftermarket share has increased to 36% which is very favorable. The aftermarket share has continued to increase in Q1 as well as again in Q2 of this year. The defense-related part of our business activities has continued to be a key source of growth in the second quarter with a market presence of about 75%. We are present in the majority of all tracked military vehicles [ powering ] in the Western world. With respect to the overall market and geopolitical situation, I think we are all well aware that tensions have more increased than decreased. Unfortunately, Ukraine war is ongoing. With the counter offensive at the moment. In the Middle East, we see with some concern increasing escalation and the situation in the Indo-Pacific has also not improved to the better. For our industry, obviously, this provides the basis of continuous tailwind of needs of the armed forces to be reequipped and to increase defense spending, respectively. Jumping to Slide #6, let me begin with a summary of key highlights for quarter 2 2024. Overall, we are very, very pleased with the strong second quarter on the back of which we have been able to upgrade our short and midterm outlook. The key highlight for us is the strong revenue growth in the quarter and the half year. We have a very sizable order backlog and have made it our mission to execute it profitably. With great pleasure, we can conclude that we delivered on this ambition and promise. Supply chain challenges, that we had during the year 2023 were resolved successfully and our production efficiency and output specifically here in the Augsburg side has improved considerably, thanks to clear operational efficiency measures that we have implemented. Despite the strong revenue growth, our order backlog is growing further. As we had already indicated in our Q1 call, order intake in the VMS segment increased very strongly in quarter 2 and allowed us to report a very good order intake for the quarter as well as for the half year overall. For the coming quarters, the order pipeline remains very strong. The defense super cycle is in full swing and visible in our order intake, both for new equipment as well as for aftermarket. In Marine & Industry segment, revenue growth accelerated further as we convert our increased Navy backlog. We reported on that in the last 2 quarters already. As the Navy business tends to be more profitable than the industrial new build business in the M&I segment, this has also allowed us to improve margins substantially. Thanks to the operational improvement that we have achieved and despite higher investments in technology and R&D, and we have presented our latest ATREX hybrid main battle tank transmission in the Eurosatory exhibition in June in Paris. The performance in the first half of 2024 has put us into position to increase the revenue guidance to around about EUR 1.1 billion, which is clearly the upper end of what we had so far guided. And the adjusted EBIT guidance to EUR 175 million to EUR 100 million in profits. So here, again, narrowing of the guidance to the upper end. As market growth and our own operational improvements will continue to improve. We are confident in our midterm prospects and have raised our midterm targets accordingly. If we jump to the next slide, very briefly, we see our total order backlog compared to the first quarter of this year 2024, we see a slight increase of EUR 100 million in the fixed order backlog. If you compare the fixed order backlog per end of June -- end of June 2023, we could even increase by EUR 200 million. And also the total order backlog even grew by EUR 0.5 billion by EUR 500 million, I think, from EUR 4.2 billion to EUR 4.7 million -- billion, sorry. So a substantial increase in the total order backlog. Thanks to, in Q2, specifically strong order intake on the VMS side based on a large order we got from the U.S. Armed Forces. In addition to the order pipeline which remains generally very encouraging, we see a good market growth in all 3 segments. Total order backlog remains on a very high level, as reported already with the EUR 4.7 billion, which is about 4.6x revenue coverage as of June '24 and we see also a large volume of profitable business opportunities in the coming years beyond the prospects that we have included in our soft and total order backlog. I would like to hand over now to Christian for a more detailed look at the Q2 financials.
Thank you, Susanne. And also a warm welcome from my side. Let us now have a look at the group performance for the second quarter. We will focus on our top line. Order intake growth was very pleasing. If you strip out the large order wins, Turkey and U.S. last year and U.S. this year, growth has been very strong. Or if you include these large orders, order intake has been stable, meaning that we have been able to almost fully compensate the Taiwan contract. The largest contract in our recent history, which we had booked in Q1 2023. The high book-to-bill indicates further revenue growth. Besides demand, we also have to improve our operational excellence to achieve high growth, and we have also succeeded in this regard, especially when it comes to our plant in Augsburg, as we will later on discuss. Fixed order backlog has increased in line with the higher order intake. If we flip to Page #9, you see our gross profit increased in second quarter by increasing 14%, to put it into perspective, keep in mind that the prior year number included the release of a warranty provision. If you strip this effect out, our gross profit would have increased by 33%. Regarding our adjusted EBIT, our old full year guidance implied at the midpoint a 19% increase of adjusted EBIT. If you strip out the release of the warranty provision in Q2 '23, our adjusted EBIT in second quarter increased by 21% after [ 46 ] in Q1. To put the number into perspective, please also keep in mind that in our second quarter, as Susanne has alluded to, our R&D expenses increased by EUR 2.5 million. These are fully P&L affected expenses. We do not capitalize R&D. If R&D expenses had remained at the level of second quarter 2023, EBIT growth would have been 6% points higher or the margin has been 110 basis points higher. The R&D projects that we are investing are backed by strong commercial business cases. We also successfully digested an increase of SG&A expenses. This includes new items like our Annual General Meeting, as you know, which we hosted in June. Let's now come to the segments. If you go to Page #10. A key highlight for us was the very strong order intake of the VMS segment. From our point of view, this is not a onetime coincidence but order intake should remain strong in the coming quarters. Some of this growth potential is visible in our soft order backlog, but we also have many sizable business opportunities that are not yet included in our soft order backlog. Revenue growth continued on the strong path of Q1 and was primarily driven by successful operational improvement in Augsburg. Augsburg is the role model for similar measures that we are now rolling out in Muskegon as well. The success in Augsburg makes us very confident that our improvements of the operating model in Muskegon can allow the [ asset ] to reach a new level of performance as well. When you assess the adjusted EBIT development in the segment, keep in mind, as mentioned, that the previously mentioned effects of the warranty provision and the higher expenses occurred in this segment. If you look at adjusted EBIT, excluding these effects, earnings were higher than in the second quarter last year. Once operational improvement measures are rolled out in the U.S. as well under the ramp-up program that we will discuss later. Profitability should improve further as we have already demonstrated in Augsburg in the first half of this year. To be clear, the numbers for RENK look exceptionally good in the second quarter, and I would like to thank the entire team for this great leap forward. There's work to be done in the U.S., but we are confident that we can make it there, too and we are already seeing first progress. Once Augsburg and Muskegon perform well, this will take the performance of the VMS segment to an even higher level. Let's talk about the business in M&I then. For the M&I segment, order intake is up slightly year-over-year. Compared to the first quarter, it is lower in line with the comments we had already made on the Q1 call indicating that order intake in both segments can be lumpy. Revenue growth accelerated further. Keep in mind that comps will be higher in the second half. But despite this, we should see a good activity level and solid growth, especially in the more profitable Navy part of the business. The strong second quarter adjusted EBIT margin makes us confident that we are well on track for a good full year margin in this segment, like in Q1, a higher share of Navy business has helped us. Beyond this, we have also taken a very disciplined approach on the margin quality of our civil business. And this price discipline is paying off as well in terms of higher margins and higher backlog quality. Lastly, the slide bearings segment continues to experience a strong profitability with solid revenue growth. While revenue growth is not as spectacular as in the defense-related area, it nevertheless exceeds typical growth rates in the capital goods sector. The segment management team has achieved capital-efficient growth in the right areas. In German, I'd like to refer to slide bearings, as you all know, [Foreign Language] which means a very nice business in the [ trail ] of our portfolio. There is no proper English translation for that, but it's a big compliment for the management team around [indiscernible] in that segment has generated in the second quarter, a truly strong achievement under the leadership of the new CEO. Page #13. As we had promised in our Q1 call, adjustments relating to capital market readiness decreased. In fact, they even turned negative in second quarter. Also, several of the adjustments of last year, such as inflation adjustments and severance packages for management did not reappear like we also have had indicated previously. During the second quarter, we have booked a mid-single digit cost relating to the RAM up program, the program to enhance the operating model of RENK America. Apart from that, the adjustments mainly relate, as you know, to the adjustments of PPA effects that are very customary across our industry sector. Next page, please. Net working capital reduction remains and is a key priority of our organization for this year. At the end of the second quarter, our net working capital as a percentage of sales was back on the level of the year 2023. This does include project-specific temporary ramp-up of inventories in the context of our strong growth. Furthermore, it's not unusual for companies in our industry to build net working capital at the beginning of the year. We strive to reduce the net working capital ratio in the midterm and also think we should be able to make progress towards the end of this year. As we've indicated a level of around 25% seems to be a realistic achievement based on the legal entity specific program we have launched. Moving to our cash flow statement. Overall, many aspects of our cash conversion were good during the second quarter. CapEx was low and cash outflows for interest, taxes and other items close to normal levels. As we had to digest the net working capital increase discussed before, cash flow turned slightly negative which is not an unusual pattern and for the half year, includes onetime payments for the refinancing of the high yield bonds in the due course of the listing. Let me hereby hand back to Susanne, who will take you through the outlook of the year.
Yes. Thank you, Christian. Based on our solid progress in Q2, we increased our guidance for this year. We now expect around EUR 1.1 billion revenues as growth in the first half was higher than the midpoint of the previous fiscal year guidance had suggested. We don't expect this growth to abate in light of strong demand growth as well as operational progress. Growth prospects remain good across all of our 3 segments in all regions. So in total, we are very pleased with the development of the first 6 months and feel very confident on setting this new guidance on the top line. Also keep in mind that we can generate higher revenues as our ability to execute is much better than last year as supply chain challenges have been overcome and operational improvements have been achieved. So one of the key successes was to point out and mention for this year, for the first 6 months, specifically implemented, realized and materialized here in the Augsburg side for the VMS business, very strong output level, very strong operational performance. Our earnings guidance has narrowed to the upper half reflecting the strong performance. You recall the old guidance was EUR 160 million to EUR 190 million. And we narrowed it down to EUR 175 million to EUR 190 million and that a little bit closer range. Regarding our midterm revenue growth and EBIT targets, growth in the defense sector will last for longer. We alluded on that and our ability to execute has significantly improved. The role model, as Christian has explained already from Augsburg, the operational model will be transferred first to Muskegon and then to the rest of the production sites in our global production set up in RENK. Hence, we have hit our midterm targets and now expect instead of the 10% CAGR annually top line, we now expect 15% annual organic growth and an EBIT of about EUR 300 million midterm. If we flip the page, let me conclude with some thoughts on the upcoming months of this year on Slide 18. Our first priority is and remains and was the output increase at our main plant in Augsburg and we will need to stabilize this further and not just stabilize but improve and accelerate the output level to -- in Augsburg to the next, let's say, level of performance. During the second quarter as well as the month of July, we were very pleased with the progress we have made here. The monthly run rate of production has been around 60 transmissions in every month, except for the month of May, which was the month with several public holidays which has impacted a little bit. The adjusted EBIT contribution of the transmission unit in Augsburg was notably higher than in Q2 2023. Our second priority is operational excellence in the U.S. in the Muskegon plant specifically. Naturally, we will see the effects of our program there with a certain time lag to Augsburg. The challenges in Muskegon are almost similar to the challenges we had in Augsburg last year. We now have a very strong team on the ground and are spending more time in the U.S. also with people deployed and supporting here from the German site in Muskegon. We are very confident that we will be able to replicate the success we had in Augsburg, in Muskegon in the next 2 to 3 quarters to come. I would like to emphasize the following. In Q2, we were able to meet market expectations for group adjusted EBIT despite RENK America performance, not yet delivering on its full potential. Once the performance of RENK America reaches a higher level, the better profitability of Augsburg should shine through more visibly. Our third priority is clearly net working capital optimization. After a very successful Q1 in this regard. Net working capital increased back to the level it had at year-end 2023 as a percentage of sales. We strive to reduce net working capital further in the midterm and also expect it to be rather lower at the end of this year. On our fourth priority, order intake. We were very pleased with the performance in Q2 and do not expect the strong demand environment to abate in the coming quarters. The Defense super cycle is now in full swing and lasts longer. We alluded and elaborated on that. This is clearly visible in our order intake, and strong order pipeline, which is beyond and in excess of our soft order backlog which we are reporting to you. Also, our investor dialogue continued. Our key highlight is our Capital Markets Day on the 9th and the 10th of September. As you recall, we start in the evening of the 9th in Munich with a dinner and have a daily program -- day program on the 10th of September in Munich at which we hope to see many of you. And before handing back to Ingo and we start to answer your questions and the Q&A session, I would like to hand back very briefly to Christian.
Thank you, Susanne, and thank you for giving me the opportunity to share some personal words with you here in this discussion today. As you have seen yesterday, I've asked the Supervisory Board of RENK Group AG to release me early out of my contract for personal reasons. And I would really like to make clear that this is really a personal decision. RENK is a great company and in a very, very good shape. As you can also see, numbers point in the right direction, everything is going the right way, the management team here, if I look around with Susanne, with Ingo, with Alexander with Anja is great. So there is also no story behind the curtain. So no story to be made up, like some did already in the press. It's a private decision because it has been a tough time for me. I will take some time out and time off, so you will not see me. Despite nobody believes me that at the 1st of October as the CFO of the company whatsoever. So I will finish my term here and hand over to Anja in the next 6 weeks to come. I will meet many of you in the next 2 to 3 weeks on the road. And also I will be around the Capital Markets Day. Not everybody might understand it, but I ask you to respect my decision. And please also understand I will answer any other question on the business, but not on my decision of yesterday. And with that, I would hand back to Ingo and would basically also just remind yourself. I'm a shareholder. I will keep my shares, and I will be a friend of this company after the 30th of September. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Christian, for the very [indiscernible] for remaining committed to the RENK share. Hopefully, we can take your question on the future earnings calls then. But before we do that, let's hand back to the operator for questions. Operator there are questions on the line. We're happy to take them. Otherwise, I've already received a few questions by e-mail in case certain participants can't sort of communicate verbally because they are on holidays or something, feel free to send your questions by e-mail, if you like.
And there are some questions coming in via the telephone conference. The first question comes from Charles Armitage of Citi.
Christian, thank you for all your help. And it's been fun working with you. My question is, RENK America clearly disappointed, as Susanne said, has been made up elsewhere. But could you elaborate both on the problems and but more importantly, why you're confident that you can improve them and maybe give some sort of order of magnitude of what the improvement might be?
Charles, it's Susanne speaking. I would start with giving an answer, and it will be probably amended or corrected by Alexander and Christian as is needed and required. We have faced in the beginning of this year in Muskegon significant supply chain challenges. What does it mean? Shortages of material not sufficiently delivered by subcontractors to cope with the production planning and the amount of transmission specifically, but also engines which we had in the production planning. So we basically had a similar effect, which we have faced and experienced in Augsburg that we start to work on something in assembly, then we stopped and we were hunting and shaving parts. So overall, very inefficient and not satisfactory at all process. We have established a task force. A team supporting our management team in Muskegon for specific initiatives on supply chain, but also on improving production planning around the situation in the supply chain. So a flexible system of adapting and tackling assembly things. We have started to give you a feeling, beginning of the year with the delivery of less than one transmission per day. in the U.S., and we are now already at 3 transmissions per day. So improvement significantly over the course of the last month. We have today, let me say, theoretical coverage of all required material until the end of the year. Theoretical-that's why because it's not physically all on the site at Muskegon, but as long as subcontractors stick to the latest commitments and contractual obligations of their delivery schedules. We are fully covered by material for transmissions and engines until the end of the year. And with the expediting processes on the subcontractors, we feel very confident that deliveries will now with the new dates and new commitments come on time. And so far, we have, in the last weeks already constantly delivered on a daily basis through transmissions. What we now improve as the next step is in the very moment, assembly is performing and delivering. You obviously get pressure on other areas. So we are, at the moment, optimizing material flow and test bench processes in an overall efficient setup. We have also adapted the management and organizational structure to support process thinking, focused on the output of processes rather than silo thinking. So it's a rather comprehensive approach there to improve operational excellence in the frame of the RAM up program. This will definitely continue until the end of the year. And we have, at the moment, no reason to believe that things will deteriorate again or not work. Again, we have the hands on the ground and on the parts on a daily basis with sufficient capacity and that's why we have the full confidence. And on that basis of the overall performance, we decided not just to narrow the guidance for this year to the upper end, but also to communicate today the midterm outlook and to, let's say, raise the targets here.
Excellent. So improving through the rest of the year, hitting sort of what you should be as a run rate by the end of the year, but not in the second half. Is that the way to read that?
I think it's, as Susanne has said, a gradual improvement with the stronger second half in particular Q4, but we will take 2, 3 quarters until we are where we want to be. Pretty much like, Charles, we had in Augsburg. And the impact here was quite impactful and the same team is now helping the U.S. So we have high probability that this will come through in the first half of next year, at the latest.
The next question comes from David Perry, JPMorgan.
RENK and Christian, I'll add my good wishes for the future as well. So I have got a few questions. I'm a little bit confused on a few things. I'll start with the guidance. Could you just maybe help us a bit more why you've raised the guidance now, specific drivers of that and maybe help us a little bit on the divisions, which can be volatile? So -- just so that we can map it out. Sorry, this is a long list of questions. There's a lot in that already. Can you also just be clear, please, what you define as the medium term because it isn't totally clear to me. Secondly, this is a little bit more in the detail. There's a big swing in eliminations, actually EUR 8 million against you in EBIT, EUR 4 million positive last year, EUR 4 million negative this year. Can you just explain what causes that? And then lastly, and maybe I've got [indiscernible] because I am on holiday, but doesn't the new guidance imply a margin of 18.5% and I always thought the margin guidance was 19% to 20%. So if you could just clarify that, that would be helpful.
Our pleasure, David. So first of all, I think guidance, let's separate into areas. One is for the remainder of '24 and for the midterm. For the remainder of '24, we decided, the Board to go to EUR 175 million to EUR 190 million, which is as you know, the upper part of the guidance. This is supported by the very good achievements for the half year in Augsburg, did give us confidence that we might finish the year on the upper half of the guidance. If we go to the medium term, we see medium back from the year 2023 from the initial start of the IPO is a 3- to 5-year horizon that means '24, '25, '26 is year 1, 2, 3, as '27 and '28 is 4 and 5. That we've increased, and that's to Susanne's point in her presentation, the revenue guidance to 15% is because you might understand last year in the IPO process, we've given out the 10%. Basically, we see that our ability to realize output has significantly increased in Augsburg and continues to improve in the U.S. Hence, we saw now 24.4% already for the first half of the year. So we think that a number of around 15% seems to be the right one. And as with the growth prospects, especially also on the recovery side with RENK America and the strong VMS order backlog we also assume that a profit level of around EUR 300 million might be feasible also with the achievements on the material cost side. And I would suggest the way you think is on M&I, a double-digit margin, slide bearings continue to be a profitable enjoyable business and VMS returning to strength that you have seen in '22 with a fully effective run by the due course of next year.
And why is it 18.5%? I mean, should I just assume usually when you say 3 to 5 years, most analysts would take year 4 as the base case. So should we assume it's EUR 327 million?
Yes. So what's the question? Yes, it's the right direction. So for us we have 19% to 20% we've had in the IPO process. If you see the growth we currently have, we switch now to absolute EBIT. Also because of the significant growth we have in certain segments. Basically, we'll also see that going forward, with the strong recovery of VMS, this might be possible. And at the Capital Markets Day, without giving too much preview here, Anja will give an outlook on the new steering model of the group, which will be enhanced by value drivers, which will complement an absolute EBIT level. So it's not that we say goodbye to the margin, but we basically focus on the absolute value creation for investors. And with this, we also take business that is in the segment, for example, of slide bearings of 16%, 17% margin. But overall, we do not collect the 19% to 20% is just we need to see how the VMS or the backlog needs to develop also in the due course of the coming quarters.
Okay. A lot of your comments were on margin, but the higher sales, should we put most of that in VMS? Or is it spread across all...
The majority of the EUR 4.7 billion is on the VMS land side. There's an increasingly higher portion on the Navy side, but the majority comes from VMS and a very strong focus also on European business which is good margin.
Okay. And just on that elimination swing?
Look, I don't know out of my head, which swing you mean. I think it's on the corporate cost. We've had certain swings in there, but we will get back to you via Ingo with a concrete answer on the EUR 4 million.
David, to give you a concrete answer. I think it's fair to summarize it as corporate costs and just get a random example of the Annual General Meeting. And so I think, I mean, it's a lower number. I think it's low single-digit number, so we can take it as that. Yes, corporate costs and the annual general meaning.
Is that temporary? Does it just normalize at 2 to 3 a year? Or is it -- what's the normal level there?
Specifically -- we are not giving guidance on the specific line item. And I think it's also a matter of how we allocate it. But I mean -- yes, it is a bit higher than maybe the 0 that you've seen in the past, but it's not substantial. We can give you a line item guidance on this one. I think we have a very clear guidance on the group numbers now, which is what it is, and I think we've seen the right drivers. And yes, the elimination line is slightly higher than we had in the past. But -- yes, difficult to forecast on a quarterly basis because it's low numbers, that's really more volatile. And we're not going to have post a number this quarter.
Next question comes from Christophe Menard, Deutsche Bank.
Yes. Best of luck, Christian, as well. I had 3 questions. The first one, just a data point. I think you previously mentioned that you had a target of 650 transmission in Germany in 2024, and 425 in the U.S. You may have mentioned this on the call, but I didn't hear, is it still valid? Or should we expect a lower number of transmission in the U.S. as per your statement on the recovery? That was the first question. The second question is on the full year guidance. I mean I'm still thinking in terms of margins, sorry, on that. But your -- the guidance you crafted or the new elements are leading us to a margin between 16% and 17.3%. Last year, you were at 16.2%. My question is related to the [ aftermarket/OE mix ]. I mean, clearly, H1 is better. We have a better mix on aftermarket. I would have expected probably a better margin in the full year? Or is the mix of aftermarket going to decline in H2? So that was the second question. And last question is in -- it's a broader statement that Germany apparently is considering taking stakes in defense firms. I mean at this point in time, this is not your case. Have you heard anything -- could there be an interest of Germany taking a stake in RENK?
So maybe I start and maybe the last question on the German state investment into RENK, Susanne might take. When it comes to the 650, you're mentioning, this has not changed. So Augsburg will produce and also sell more than 650. This is what Susanne has alluded to with the very strong performance that we already saw in first half. As for the U.S., the absolute number we will probably make, it's around 400 to 450. But as we've seen last year in Augsburg, if you sort out the supply chain, then you get in the second range a little bit of inefficiency in your assembly. And this is why we will not see a reduced number there, but the efficiency needs to improve in the second -- in the third and fourth quarter. And for the overall year, if RAM would have performed like it performed in the past, when parts were there and positive leverage were there, the company most probably would have had towards 200 plus already in this year, but it is what it is. The guidance is 175 to 190 on the back of a very strong VMS here in Augsburg, improving situation in the U.S. and solid double-digit segment numbers in M&I and also on the slide bearings side. To your questions on aftermarket, it's not declining. It's stable growing, like we said in the same relation like in the past, so in line with the overall. And to the third question if the German state is supposed to take a stake in RENK maybe, Susanne, you can elaborate a little bit.
Yes. Happy to do so. Christophe, it has never been a discussion, and as far as I know and I think and I deem relevant and henceforth not a discussion going forward. The German government has generally changed their position with respect to a potential step in of a minority shareholding for national security relevant assets. They have done that, as you know, for an interim period in Airbus many years back. They have done it in [ Hensoldt ]. They will probably do that whenever TKMS, the shipbuilding activity of ThyssenKrupp will be on the table. Other than that, I do not expect neither for other defense companies nor for RENK specifically the German government involvement with respect to a potential shareholding. And I also think it's neither necessary nor good. So we want to have a liquid share and not a shareholder blocking 25% of our share capital not trading. And it wouldn't give us any advantage if the German Government would be investing in RENK and that's why not an issue for us. But going forward, it might become an issue for companies being up for sale and looking for a sense for a new ownership structure. I think TKMS is today the most prominent case in that context. There is a discussion. Other discussions, I'm not aware of, and I don't think also the German government is not intending proactively to engage if they are not forced to or feel forced to do so.
Thanks, operator. Maybe another round of questions.
[Operator Instructions] And there's one question coming in from Sven Sauer, Kepler Cheuvreux.
I have a question on Q2 order intake. You mentioned, of course, the big order that came in. I was wondering if you could share some other orders by types that came in, in the VMS segment. And also, you mentioned that there are some opportunities in the future, which are not included in the soft order backlog in VMS. And I was wondering if you could provide some color on what you're thinking.
So I think the general remark why it's not in the order intake in the soft order backlog. The soft order backlog ends in '28 as per our definition, is every year, just 1 year rolling forward. There is programs, Sven, that will come beyond '28, which we already know. So this is why we have more potential here. We'll give at the Capital Markets Day a further flavor on that end.
I think generally, I would like to add, and if you recall the definition of soft order backlog. So what is -- and what qualifies for the soft order backlog is a very tight definition of projects, for which we are the sole source of supply and this is either the case when the prime contractor for a given platform like on Leopard or Lynx or other platforms where we are okay too where we are the sole source has already signed a contract and we are negotiating the flow down contract to us, which is not yet signed, and we put it in the soft order backlog. Or we've discussed and negotiate with customers further batches of projects where we have already delivered and executed or taken under contract previous batches. So -- and this definition of soft order backlog is rather tight. So there are many programs out there. And I could mention our main battle tanks for Italy, I could mention infantry fighting vehicles for Italy. I could mention infantry fighting vehicles for Poland. I could mention repowering programs for Abrams, for Challenger 3. I could mention the midlife modernization of the Ariete main battle tank. I could mention programs in Romania for infantry fighting vehicles. They are all sizable large programs which are not yet so concrete that they qualify for our definition of soft order backlog and the pipeline and the potential is huge. So this is not 10 or 20 projects, but probably 40 to 50 in all sizes just in VMS plus definitely a list of 15 to 20 programs, I have now spontaneously in my head for Navy. And if you take all of this together, this is a huge, huge pipeline by quantity, which we will on the Capital Markets Day, I think, give more color and more insight for you of what are the programs and the projects we are working on and what is in the pipeline to give you a better feeling of the potential of the market. And I think with that, we have given you, hopefully, enough information and color of what we can give you in the very moment. Generally, there is -- like in Q1 as well, except the big large order from the U.S., many smaller and midsized orders, which we are not communicating or reporting specifically. But for us, it's relevant if we get EUR 20 million here, EUR 40 million, EUR 50 million there. And that's a sizable number of midsized orders across various countries and customers. Obviously, orders also from the Middle East and the MENA area, but also from smaller European customers. Also of Germany and also new equipment, which we book in the aftermarket because it goes into existing platforms into the reserves. And this is also reflected by, I think, revenue growth, specifically in aftermarket, which was in Q2, 30%. So it plays into the overall, let's say, market situation. That's why it makes no sense to list more single projects. It's a comprehensive longer list of things of smaller and mid-sized orders and projects which are out there, which gives us a good resilience because it's not concentration risk on one big thing, which you either win or lose, but it's really broad-based.
And there is one question also coming from Yan Derocles, ODDO BHF.
Christian, I join my colleagues in wishing you all the best for the future. Maybe 3 questions. Two to modeling, one on R&D for the full year because H1 was strongly up compared to last year. So what should we expect in H2? And the other modeling is on refinancing because you've mentioned that you have in fact, fixed for 2 or 3 years, the new term loan. So could you tell us what -- at what rate you've swapped this new loan? And maybe the last question to come back on VMS in Q2, the profitability at VMS in Q2 because even if we adjust for the provision release and the additional R&D the drop-through is relatively low in Q2, even lower than in Q1. So how do you explain this rather lower, I would say, low drop-through compared to Q1?
So maybe let's start with R&D. For the second half of the year, depending on the progress of, let's say, project with the customers' assumption of the number between EUR 5 million and EUR 10 million could be a suitable assumption. I would say, Yan...
Just the own self-funding portion of the R&D capitalized, not what we additionally do under customer contracts and under, let's say, R&D fund subsidies on the European level, U.S. government, German government, French government.
Yes. And the swap for the interest for the half year is around EUR 1.5 million. The overall cost for the financing in total is around, let's say, 6.5%, 7% based on the current development. So as you know, it's basically the same financing that we've disclosed upon the IPO. So there is no news in the -- there is a certain possibility as we narrow down our net debt position that we get some more favorable rates on that one. So we continue to work on this. You might have seen that we also got an upgrade on the rating side from Standard & Poor's. So this is in the clear mind of the company. And with this, also a slight improvement on the financing costs are subject to appear. And the third one, I forgot, sorry.
Question on the release of the provision of the EUR 9 million and the R&D effect on the EBIT of VMS, right?
Yes, because even if you strip out the release and the increase in R&D, the profitability, the drop-through at VMS is not that great in Q2. So I know that you've got these issues in the U.S. at Muskegon. But I was wondering if...
I think a fair comment, I think, a fair -- no, it's not something else. I think the fair comment is, Christian, under your control is -- we are pleased with aftermarket performance. We are specifically pleased with the Augsburg performance, which is, let's say, compensating a lot. We are not pleased with the outcome in Q2 of RENK America. That's why we focus. That's why full transparency also to you with respect to output of the factory and the program and what we are doing there specifically. We expect Q3 and Q4 much better figures from RENK America, but we also need what Christian said another 2, 3 quarters to fully unlock the potential we have in the factory on this improved level. But clearly, what we see in Q2 is an effect of a bad performing U.S. business in VMS. It is the super well performing business in Augsburg, which is compensating a lot, a lot, a lot and which is a pleasing performance on the aftermarket side. And there is no other effect in.
And which makes us confident, what Susanne has said, what works out here will also work out in the U.S. because it's the same topic. It's the same procedure. It's even the same people helping. And it shows us, as Susanne has alluded to, if the run rate from below 1 is now up at 3 that we are on the right path. So this is why we are confident about the recovery of the U.S. business model in the next 2 to 3 quarters.
So as there are no further questions at the moment. I'd like to hand it back to the speakers.
We still have a few questions in writing. There's follow-up question from Christophe, which still seems to be in the queue, but that's not a real question. We'll go to the questions we received in writing. I think the first step was from Marie-Therese of Hauck Aufhäuser. The top line and margin development in Marine is impressive. Can we assume profitability hovering at those levels for the rest of the year?
I would say the top line should be pretty sustainable at the current level. So there's a clear yes. Margins should be sustainable at the high level for the first half as well as they should be double digit for the full year. I would always say 10% and above would be the right assumption.
And on the aftermarket business, the question is what is the share of the aftermarket business in the VMS order intake in Q2 and do you expect this to accelerate in the remaining quarters?
The -- quite honestly, the share of aftermarket business isn't very meaningful on a quarterly basis. Usually aftermarket order intake is less lumpy than new equipment. So that in the quarter, with very strong order intake, the excess order intake is more likely driven by new equipment. This also has been the case in the second quarter. So that the aftermarket share was less than 30% of the order intake. A more meaningful metric in our view, is aftermarket order intake as a percentage of revenue, and this metric was around 40% in the quarter and should remain at that level, indicating substantial further aftermarket growth.
Thank you. Probably a quick question. Can you give the guidance on order intake for the full year?
No.
Then we would move on to the questions from Carlos at Bank of America. Most questions have been answered, except for the last magic question on free cash flow, where he comes up with a question. I know you guys don't guide on free cash flow, but how should we think about cash for the second half of the year? Is high double-digit free cash flow for full year '24 something achievable?
So yes, we don't guide on cash flow. But if you take in account that we had to digest one off payments, especially relating to the refinancing. And as Susanne has alluded to, the temporary net working capital increase in the first half. Our cash flow in the first half was good compared to normal seasonal presence. So yes, high double digit is still realistic.
Thank you. I think the other questions have already been answered. If not, please follow up by e-mail. And with that, I would like to hand it back to Susanne for closing remarks.
Yes. Thank you for attending and participating despite holidays and sunshine and beach weather. I would like to take the opportunity, however, to thank Christian. I know you have been here for another 6 weeks. It goes without saying that I'm obviously sad. That I also regret your decision, but I have no other choice than to respect that. It makes it easy to digest because of Anja. Anja is a great colleague and I'm really very much looking forward to continue the success story with Alexander and you together here to drive RENK into the future and the next level of performance. Other than that, thank you, Christian, and welcome in the team, Anja, in that new role as of first of October. If nobody has something to say and to add, we say collectively here from Augsburg, thank you very much to all of you. Enjoy the rest of the summer. Looking forward to see you in Munich for the Capital Markets Day and when we are on the road in the next days and speak to you soon then for the Q3 report. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.
Thank you.
Take care. Goodbye.
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