Route Mobile Limited (ROUTE) Earnings Call Transcript
January 23, 2024
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I am Davin, the moderator for this conference. Welcome to the conference call of Route Mobile Limited arranged by Concept investor relations to discuss its Q3 and 9 months FY '24 results. We have with us today Mr. Rajdip Kumar Gupta, Managing Director and Group CEO; Mr. Gautam Badalia, Group Chief Strategy Officer and Chief Investor Relations Officer; and Mr. Suresh Jankar, Chief Financial Officer. [Operator Instructions] Before we begin, I would like to remind you that some of the statements made in today's earnings call may be forward looking in nature and may involve certain risks and uncertainties. Kindly refer to Slide #2 of the presentation for the detailed disclaimer. Please note this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Rajdip Kumar Gupta. Thank you. And over to you, sir.
Thank you, Davin. Good evening, everyone. In light of the recent global trend of workforce rationalization and cost optimization among large global companies, the broader CPaaS industry has encountered some headwinds, especially in the last 2 months of the previous quarter. I want to take this opportunity to provide you with a transparent overview of the current situation as well as our strategic response to these events. While we have registered our best quarterly revenue during the quarter gone by, it was yet a slightly muted performance considering Q3 is historically a best quarter. This is due to the industry headwinds and delays in a couple of our large contracts going live. In lieu of the above, we revised our FY '24 guidance from 20% to 25% revenue growth to 15% to 17% GAAP revenue growth. These developments, while concerning, are not uncommon in the fast-evolving tech landscape. The good thing is that our performance during the month, so far, is encouraging. And we are putting lots of effort to accelerate to go-live date for some of the large contracts that we have won and few that on verge of closure. Some of the notable contracts which should go live during the course of this quarter are one of the largest e-commerce customers to go live for European destinations. Vodafone Idea contract integration, ongoing rapidly. However, the full-fledged impact of this contract will start from April 1st onwards. We have recently onboarded a large e-commerce client from Asia. They should gradually ramp up. We are on the verge of signing a contract with one of the largest private sector bank in India. We are also encouraged by the growing adoption of new communication channels like RCS and WhatsApp Business messaging. In fact, some of our recent contract wins on these product lines [ are as big ] as our monthly revenue on these product lines. The recent shifts in the messaging space are opening up new avenues for communication. We expect to onboard a significant number of new customers to our omnichannel platform, leveraging these changes. This evolution in the market, while bringing its challenges, also present us with unprecedented opportunities for growth and expansion. The evolving messaging landscape is creating exciting opportunity for us to welcome numerous new clients to our omnichannel platform. This shift, while challenging, is opening doors to unprecedented growth and development. We are in the process of implementing innovative technological solutions such as gen AI and -- to enhance our operational efficiency. While I won't delve into specifics, I can assure you that these advancements will significantly contribute to optimizing our processes and reducing dependencies, aligning us with the best industry practices. In terms of Proximus deal update, we have secured the most important U.S. approval and are in [indiscernible] distance of deal closure. A couple of regulatory approvals from the Middle East are awaited anytime soon. Further, we have done a lot of ground work on the integration effort across the group and have clearly identified synergies across various buckets. Upon the deal closure, we shall immediately [ action the ] integration effort; and the synergies should start to reflect in our financials immediately thereafter. In conclusion, while we acknowledge the challenge we face, our outlook remains optimistic. Our strong foundation, coupled with our strategic initiative, position us well to capitalize our future opportunities and deliver on our promises [ of relation and ] excellence. Thank you for your continued faith in our journey. We are committed to keeping you informed and engaged as we progress towards our shared goal. Now I will hand over the call to Gautam, who will share more about our financial highlights. Over to you, Gautam.
Thank you, Rajdip. Good evening, everyone. Wishing all a very happy new year, 2024. We've already uploaded our quarterly earnings presentation on our website as well as on the stock exchange websites. I hope you had a chance to go through the presentation. I'll quickly summarize our financial and operating performance during Q3 FY '24 and 9 months FY '24 before opening the floor for Q&A. I'll start by highlighting the key developments during the quarter gone by. We have registered -- as Rajdip highlighted, we have registered our best quarterly revenues during the quarter gone by, yet it was a slightly muted performance due to factors which Rajdip again highlighted. I mean industry headwinds as most OTTs were in cost-saving mode, which affected the ILD traffic in regions; and delay in certain large contracts going live. With respect to our margins, we have [ incurred ] some one-off expenses. I'll just list out some of those one-off expenses for the quarter gone by. Mr Messaging's revenue grew by 40% sequentially, but this impacted -- but their performance actually was a drag on our EBITDA margins. Adjusted for MRM's EBITDA, we achieved a 13% margin, EBITDA margin. MRM's performance for 9 months FY '24 was affected largely by geopolitical issues in Europe and industry consolidation, hence an exceptional item of INR 150.4 million was booked in Q3 FY '24, which represents a fair value gain as of December 31, 2023, of the contingent consideration payable towards the acquisition of the 100% equity stake of MR Messaging. There was also a bad debt write-off in Masivian to the tune of INR 46.6 million in 9 months FY '24, and we have already initiated legal actions for recovery. There was a onetime consultancy and retainer fees paid in Q3 FY '24 for market expansion in Africa and Lat Am which amounted to INR 29.9 million. In volume terms, we processed 31.2 billion transactions, similar to Q2 FY '24. Despite Q3's seasonal [ step ], the muted sentiment across geographies is reflected in these volumes. India continues to be our largest market by termination, accounting for over 47% of our revenue by termination. The revenues from U.S. headquarters' customers declined, owing to reasons highlighted [ above ]. You may refer to Slide 16 for the same. We are seeing strong momentum in next-generation products across multiple geographies. We witnessed a year-on-year growth of 58% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14%. You may refer to Slide 10 for the same. Our new products LTM revenue is around USD 25 million. The uptick in new products by enterprises, a few large contracts going live shortly, along with the synergy benefits that will accrue to Route Mobile post the deal closure, will pave a very strong growth trajectory for FY '25. With this backdrop, let me walk you through our financial performance. In Q3 FY '24, revenue from operations grew by 3.9% from INR 9,857 million in Q3 FY '23 to INR 10,243 million in Q3 FY '24. There was a sequential growth of 1%. Billable transactions increased from 27.7 billion in Q3 FY '23 to 31.2 billion in Q3 FY '24. Average realization for billable transactions increased from -- increased to INR 0.329 in Q3 FY '24 from INR 0.324 Q2 FY '24. Gross profit margins remained flat on a sequential basis. EBITDA declined marginally, owing to certain one-off expenses highlighted earlier. Effective tax rate for the quarter was around 15.4%. Profit after tax, adjusted for exceptional items, grew by 15.5% on a Y-o-Y basis and 11.6% on a sequential basis from INR 854 million in Q3 FY '23 and INR 884 million in Q2 FY '24 to INR 986 million in Q3 FY '24. PAT margin was at 9.6% in Q3 FY '24, as against 8.7% in Q3 FY '23 and Q2 FY '24. The Board has recommended an interim dividend of INR 3 per share. For 9 months FY '24, revenue from operations grew by 17.4% from INR 25,606 million in 9 months FY '23 and INR 30,063 million in 9 months FY '24. In terms of certain KPIs, billable transactions increased from 79 billion in 9 months FY '23 to 92 billion in 9 months FY '24. Average realization per billable transaction was INR 0.327 in 9 months FY '24, as compared to INR 0.322 in 9 months FY '23. We had a net revenue retention of 110%. You may refer to Slide 18 for the same. We added over 700 customers, new customers, in 9 months FY '24 across all products. Gross profit margin declined from 22.4% in 9 months FY '23 to 21.3% in 9 months FY '24. EBITDA grew by 15.7%. In terms of operating leverage, EBITDA as a percentage of gross profit stood at 59% in 9 months FY '24. EBITDA margin remained flattish. Effective tax rate was 12.3% in 9 months FY '23, as against 15.7% in 9 months FY '24. Profits after tax, adjusted for exceptional items, grew by 21.6% from INR 2,291 million in 9 months FY '23 to INR 2,786 million in 9 months FY '24. The PAT margin improved from 9% to 9.3% in the same period. We onboarded 35 new employees and 29 employees left us during the same period. Net cash as on December 31, 2023, was INR 4,654 million. Average receivable days was 73 days in 9 months FY '24 versus 73 days in H1 FY '24. Average payable days reduced marginally to 59 days in 9 months FY '24 versus 64 days in H1 FY '24. Normalized CFO conversion during 9 months FY '24 was in the range of 50% to 75% guidance range that we had rolled out at the beginning of the year. With these highlights, we open the floor for Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Swapnil Potdukhe from JM Financial.
First, on your growth trends for this particular year. You mentioned that there has been a significant decline -- I mean there has been a correction in growth you have -- guidance as well. Now my question is like would we be able to recover the lost growth in this particular quarter, I mean the revenues that we lost in this particular quarter, starting Q4. If not, what will be -- the reason be? That will be the first question.
Let me start with this. So as I said, one of the largest e-commerce customers is live on our India platform right now. We were hoping to -- them to start 9 other countries, which got delayed, and we are very much hopeful to get those started by this quarter. And we are in constant touch with them, to start with U.K. and other countries, so hopefully, that will go live. As far as our Vodafone Idea contract is concerned, I think we were expecting to go live by 1st of December, which we now extended to 1st of April, the exclusive partnership deal with Vodafone Idea. We are almost -- migrating the firewall on our -- the different circles on our firewall. And we believe, by end of March, we are -- we will be able to complete the entire shift from [ Voda's ] firewall to our firewall, so the complete [ growth kind of revenue ] and -- on firewall side will be effective from 1st of April. So in terms of -- I think, the last quarter, as I said, we are seeing a significant growth in this month already from the customer who lowered down their volume last quarter. We can see them started again. So we might not give any kind of guidance, but in terms of revenue guidance, I think we are very much confident that between 15% to 17% is something what we will achieve this financial year.
So just to extend that point. You mentioned 17% at the upper end of the guidance. So that, [ if you're still looking details of that ], you're guiding for 15% of the sequential growth Q-on-Q. And historically, 4Q has -- is typically [ tepid ] compared to 3Q. So this time around -- yes.
So if you see our last year, also the Q4 was better than Q3. So we believe that, this year, Q4 will be better than Q3.
Got it. And if I were to just extrapolate a few things and ask you about FY '25. What will be the incremental revenue potential that you are looking at from all the deals that you just mentioned and things starting, as in the Vodafone deal also comes in from 1st of April?
So apart from Vodafone's and other deal, I think the synergy between TeleSign [ and with as a ] Proximus deal. So we are expecting that deal to be -- get closer -- close very soon. If those deals also -- those synergies come along with Route Mobile, I think we have a very high number to achieve, but right now we are assessing the whole [ value ]. We might -- not able to give you the exact growth trajectory for the next year, but very soon, we will definitely share that.
Okay. And one thing on your gross margins. You just mentioned that your RCS and WhatsApp revenue have been doing well, but that does not seem to be reflecting in your gross margins. And in fact, if I see from a Y-o-Y perspective, you're down significantly. Q-on-Q perspective also, you are flattish. Where -- when exactly should we start seeing these margins to inch up or get some benefits from the new product lines?
So Swapnil, you need to also understand when we talk about, say, 25 million for the yearly basis revenue [ against ] 4,000 crore revenue. So it will always be very small. I think, as I -- Gautam mentioned, some of the contracts which we have won recently and some of the contracts which we are working on are very large contracts. And as soon as we scale the entire revenue to around 300 crores to 400 crores [ or maybe ] 500 crores per year, probably you can see the impacts [ of that in our GP ], so -- but we are working very hard to onboard and focus more on omnichannel potential which we see right now. So that's the current status. Gautam [ will surely ] add to this.
Yes. So we just -- I think we mentioned in our remarks also, I think, MRM, I think, -- while -- I think they have not had the best 9 months, but I think -- last quarter, I think they did exceedingly well in terms of growing their revenue sequentially by 40%. But in terms of gross and EBITDA margin, I mean, it was a drag on our overall financials. So adjusted for the MRM's gross and EBITDA margin, I mean, our margins would have expanded significantly. I mean, sure, it would have been closer to last year's gross margin.
Got it, Gautam. And just one last question, on your employee expenses. And right now they are hovering around 55 crores on a quarterly basis. Is there any impact of any price hikes or something -- or sorry, the salary hikes or something in this particular quarter? Or like that comes in later. If you can just guide some how things -- we should forecast...
For some of the subsidiaries, they also have a January-to-December kind of a cycle, so there are some bonus payouts. And all that happen typically at the end of December, so some of those things have happened during the course of last quarter.
So fair to assume 55 crores is the run rate, in the near term, next 1 or 2 quarters, of...
Yes, in that vicinity. That's right.
The next question is from the line of Dipesh Mehta from Emkay Global.
Maybe a couple of questions. First of all, if I look to vertical mix which we provide in terms of which segment has driven growth, digital native and -- or aggregator seems to be weak. So if you can provide some colors what is playing out. So CPaaS partner as well as digital native, some weakness is evident. Second question is about some of the comments you made in delaying large contract [indiscernible]. So if I look, your PPT indicated Vodafone, where we are already live. And in record time, we implemented and stuff like that, so what led to delay in conversion to revenue or maybe billing, if you can provide some sense? And third question is about gross margin trajectory. I understand new product is not significant, but if I'll go to, let's say, 1-year-, 2-year-back and overall consistent narrative about gross margin expansion plan over a period of time: Some of it is not evident in the numbers. So if you can provide what led to some kind of miss, not for this quarter particularly but broader, let's say, 9 months or something like that, sir.
So Gautam, I'll start with the second question, and probably you can answer the remaining 2.
Sure...
So Dipesh, [ in ] Vodafone, we went live on 1st of December with our hub, which is like record implementation at Vodafone Idea. And there is a current partner who has a firewall deployed into all the various circle of Vodafone Idea, which is a very tedious job to transform entire traffic from one circle -- one firewall to another firewall. And that is why now we have started, from the January, to moving the traffic from one firewall to our firewall. That process has been started. We cannot move all the traffic [ on short ] because we have to test. We have to make sure everything working fine from firewall A to firewall B, so that transition period is longer. And that is why it will take another -- I think it takes 2 months more, and that is what we expect. And that is why we're talking about the 1st of April as a go live as -- and we will become the exclusive also from 1st of April, which means that all the traffic from 1st of April onwards will flow through our firewall. Gautam?
Just, [ Rajdip ], on this part. So earlier when we indicated it to contribute revenue from Q4 onwards, whether we overall painstakingly assume transition. There'll be very -- so there is some kind of transition.
Yes. So I think it was a little bit miscalculation from our side. And probably that was one of the reasons we -- these were always calculated as, I think, Vodafone Idea is to go live [ from January ], but because of the shift, it takes more time and -- but we already started the process. And that's why we are not considering the revenue of that in this quarter, but we have now -- the shift has already started. We have already moved 3 circles to our firewall now, and remaining are [indiscernible]. And keeping that in mind, I think 1st of April is a tentative date [ wherein we got exclusive ] on Vodafone Idea. Gautam?
Sure. So Dipesh, your first question was on digital native and CPaaS. So you're absolutely right. I think those 2 segments have witnessed some headwinds, and that's largely an industry-wide phenomena and not specific to Route Mobile per se. So some of these CPaaS players, I mean, who are also our partners, they service a lot of large global enterprises. And we have seen that trend pretty much play out across, I mean, most of these large global enterprises during the -- I mean, during the last 2 months of the last quarter, previous quarter. Hopefully, I think things are coming back. I mean with some of these enterprises now doing their budgeting and stuff. So things, I think, should come back at least and it should steady now. So from that aspect, I think we are cautiously optimistic about that, these -- both these segments. And as Rajdip said, I mean, once Vodafone goes live, I mean, we'll definitely be able to increase our wallet share with each of these domains. So Dipesh, your third query was on new products, right? I mean the ramp-up. So I think we are very, very enthused with the kind of ramp-up that we are witnessing...
No, it was on gross margin.
Yes, on the gross margin, okay, the expansion that you were seeing...
That's right. Let's say if I go to 2 year back...
Can you just repeat the question...
Sure. So let's say, if I go to your 2-year-back narrative about gross margin trajectory, 1 year back also, same narrative. We expect gross margin trajectory to improve over a period of time; and it will be consistent, steady kind of improvement. Now if I look actual delivery, the trajectory seems to be different. Now we explained A, B, C reason why it is not happening, but if I look trajectory perspective, in '22, we were at 21% as gross margin. Today, we are not different, so I just want to understand whether one should expect 21% is a reasonable number to expect for medium term or you think 25%. And because, at one point of time, you indicated it can go as high as 30%, so we are way below those kind of numbers, so I just want to get sense.
So as I said, our other [ sort of ] business and our omnichannel business is growing since -- every single quarter, okay? And I think the run rate of 25 million [indiscernible] as of now. And we are expecting this to grow, I think, at least very high, as compared to the SMS piece, but again I think we are -- as soon as it increases to 500 crore revenue run rate [ call ], I think that is where you can start looking at gross margin increase in overall. Gautam, if you want to add to this...
Yes. And just to give you a perspective. I think we have given a 3-year perspective of margin expansion. And that's a fair observation. I think some of that has kind of got a little diluted because of, I think, [ I believe, a strike ]. I mean Mr Messaging's margin was a drag, right? If you adjust for that, I mean, there is some bit of margin expansion that's played out, but notwithstanding that, I think the important thing is, I think, this year, as we said, I think, this will be an inflection year for the new products. I mean, at this point in time, I mean, they're working on a few contracts where our monthly run rate of the new products revenue, I mean some of the contract sizes that we are winning, are greater than that. So some of those validations are happening. I think let this new products work stream gather some critical mass. At that point in time -- I think this should definitely play out, I mean, from an expansion standpoint.
[indiscernible] I mean last question from my side. Now if I look your Q4 guidance range, I'm looking sequential perspective, it implies roughly around 7% to 14% as quarter-on-quarter growth. Now Vodafone is likely to ramp up from April, which -- so it should not contribute. So what we are building. Because from a seasonality perspective, typically volume is not showing any material growth, if I look last few years of our performance. So what we are building here, if you can help us understand.
I think some of the segments which are now coming back, essentially the CPaaS that had actually kind of dwindled down quite a bit during last quarter. I think some of those things are now coming back. And I think, last year, if you look at the trajectory, on a sequential basis, we were able to demonstrate growth, I mean, in Q4 versus Q3. Plus, we are assuming that some of these contracts that we have won -- I mean the e-commerce client in Asia that we have won. I mean we already started the throughput, and that should meaningfully ramp up. We are also assuming that, one of the largest e-commerce clients, I mean, they will start the European traffic during the course of this quarter. So some of these things are baked into the assumption.
Last year, growth was partly driven by acquisitions. Interteleco was not there in Q3, and that's why some growth happened. If I adjust for it, your growth was not there sequentially, which is the usual pattern. And that's why I try to -- but you said these 3, 4 reasons are sufficient for us to give that confidence.
No. So Dipesh, I think Interteleco acquisition happened in December '21, not last year.
The next question is from the line of Nikhil Choudhary from Nuvama.
First question is regarding the decline we have seen in the volume number. While -- when the argument given that there is cutting spending in ILD by global enterprises, volume clearly is driven by [ seller department ]. ILD is relatively small portion of overall volume. And decline in -- on Q-on-Q basis are more or less showing that even on NLD side. There is at least some pressure. We have heard from your competitors last quarter that there are challenges from other players who are not passing on the increased costs, so anything to highlight there in terms of volume?
[indiscernible]. So in terms of volume, what has actually transpired is, I think, there was a significant drop in volume for Masivian. And while I think that their volumes dropped by 10%, their revenues increased by 15%, so they were able to kind of do a lot of solution selling, I mean, which are inherently on a larger ticket sizes solutions that they were able to sell. So I think, that ways, I think, they have done really well in terms of the margin expansion and in terms of the gross margins.
So Gautam, if they have done margin expansion this quarter [indiscernible] and there is a [ drop ] in terms -- the entire realization, then Route's organic performance is even inferior, right, [ I mean, like on real basis ].
No, no. So that, I think, we did call out, right, digital native and CPaaS. I think those 2 segments got impacted during February -- during November and December. So that led to kind of a slightly muted [ for some -- ] Route Mobile on an organic basis.
Sure. And can you highlight the [ legal frame which you initiated ] against Masivian? Any more colors will be helpful.
Sorry. Sorry. Come again...
Onetime cost against Masivian...
Yes. So this actually happened. A part of it happened in Q2 and large part of it happened in Q3. So this was pertaining to one, I think, solution that we sold to kind of a Mexican enterprise, but ultimately the Mexican enterprise was not able to realize it. I mean it's more to do with the industry headwinds than anything else. So we've kind of already started a litigation proceeding against them, so we are hopeful that we'll be able to recover this amount that we've written off.
Sure. Just last point here; well, a few question asked by earlier participants, I mean, regarding the [ required ] growth rate of 7% to 14% in fourth quarter. How much will be driven by increase in volume or pricing [ of ], more or less, our existing business? And how much is it driven by incremental revenues coming from one of the top clients starting in Europe?
So I think, honestly, Nikhil, we can't quantify at this point of time, but we believe that when this pattern of spending on [ various 9 and -- 9 to 10 countries ] if we get all of them as a part of our platform, we believe that it will add easily $3 million to $4 million additional to our revenue.
Okay, $3 million to $4 million...
Yes.
So the remaining portion, you are saying that's going to come organically...
Yes, yes. So as I said, I think the volume for this particular month has been -- we have seen a growth -- whatever [ distance ] we have seen from those large OTT players in the month of November and December. We start seeing the traffic coming back to our platform and we see a decent growth for these particular months. And we presume that the same growth will continue for the next [ few ] months as well, and we will easily reach to our guidance of 15% to 17% year-on-year basis.
The next question is from the line of Amit Chandra from HDFC Securities.
Sir, my first question is on the ILD part of our business, wherein in the past we have seen multiple price hikes on the ILD side. So is it fair to assume that, because the ILD revenue is being dominated by, say, like 5, 6 large clients -- so maybe the higher pricing of ILD is forcing them to shift to some other modes of communication and now with RCS becoming a preferred mode, okay? So...
No...
Yes. And we see the shift from ILD to RCS because the pricing differential is very high...
No, no, no...
And so because if I see the sharp drop in the top client revenue for us in this quarter. So this is also indicating to some extent that the top client is not, I mean, using the ILD channel as it was using, say, a quarter back.
Not exactly, at present. First of all, let me just clarify that RCS is no way allowed to send OTPs for OTT partners. RCS in India has been governed by Vodafone Idea as their hub, and it is definitely not allowed to use that channel to send OTPs. I think that's an misleading information that has been passed to the market, which is not correct. And we have not seen a single drop because of RCS being used for OTPs, okay? It was not only for India, but the, I think, OTT player like Google or Facebook and many others have reduced their volumes not for India but multiple destinations in those months. So it is not just for India and ILD business.
No, sir. I agree to that, that it's not for OTP messages but mostly for the promotional part and -- for the promotional part of the messages...
Even for the promotional part of the messages, I think -- we serve one of the largest e-commerce customer right now in India. And we have seen, in fact, this growth in their volume on SMS side. And we have -- I think there are lots of [ reroutes ] available in the market, and that was due to [ degrowth ] in traffic. Now most of these large brands there, where their people are using [ the routes ] to terminate their messages, then we intend getting more traffic, more assurance from these brands that they want to work with the people who have [ legitimate route ] to terminate the traffic. First of all, that is something which we have got some confirmation for this month; and that is why we see growth in our ILD traffic for this month. RCS, you might refer to some of the transaction happening on WhatsApp or for Amazon, which is totally not as accounted transaction in our revenue model. So we still see the growth of whatever traffic which is coming for traffic with companies like Amazon. We still see [ the capacity intact with us ].
Okay. And sir, recently, Apple also mentioned that they are going live with RCS like globally. Because RCS is only on Android right now. So with Apple going live on RCS and RCS being a cheaper mode of communication, as compared to ILD which is INR 5, can -- obviously it's an opportunity for, like, newer clients, but for existing clients, can this be a risk as a shift to volumes which are like lower realization?
So Amit, RCS is live in almost now 95 to 100 countries as of today. The local -- see the biggest trend between WhatsApp and RCS [ lead to asset side, not on ] SMS side. So if you talk about the conversational messaging which is happening on RCS as compared to conversational messaging which is happening on WhatsApp: WhatsApp is INR 0.75 in India. And RCS is about INR 0.25, INR 0.20 in India, so we see lots of shifting happening from WhatsApp to RCS. That is a real shift and that is something which we see or we have seen a trend. As a company, we are doing reasonably well on RCS side and reasonably well on WhatsApp side. As the only channel provider, we are not seeing that trend of RCS or WhatsApp being used for the SMS channel, but I think there's a biggest gap basically between WhatsApp Business messaging and RCS. And we see people adopting RCS more to replace WhatsApp Business messaging. So that is a trend we're seeing for last few months and that is happening. And because of the cost and because of that is governed by the operator ecosystem, [ by GSMA ] and the data residing within the country, RCS is preferred to be communication channels over WhatsApp. This is a trend we have seen in last few months.
Okay. So sir, you mentioned that, most of the ILD -- large ILD spenders, they are -- like they have not spent what they have intended to in the last 2 months. So the drop in the spending on ILD is because of the higher pricing that ILD because we are finding alternate channels. Or is it more linked to macroeconomic conditions...
It is more linked to macroeconomic condition and that there are -- India is just a 0.05 market right now, but there are various markets where SMS is being charged to 0.23 to 0.25 also. So it is not just India as one market which is charging 0.05. If you go to Bangladesh or Sri Lanka, I think it is as expensive as about 0.13 to 0.20 range. So I think overall [ differ ], various other countries [ by all these OTT ] channels. And it's a -- I think it's -- commonly it's a macroeconomic condition which have led them to withdraw some of their traffic which they believe is not critical. And [ they stick from regional traffic ], but again, from month of January, we see those traffic coming back.
Okay. And sir, on the Vodafone Idea deal -- sorry, the VI deal. You mentioned that it will start from April onwards. So the revenue commitment or the revenues that we were building in, that remains the same? Or is there any change in scope of the project?
It will remain as same whatever the guidance we have given before.
[Operator Instructions] Next question is from the line of Swapnil Potdukhe from JM Financial.
I just wanted to confirm one -- or the question that I had earlier asked with respect to the gross margin. So you mentioned that MRM is something which has impacted the margins or the -- Now as we understand, the MRM margins are significantly better than our stand-alone margins. And is that understanding correct? And if that is so, then...
So Swapnil, it was historically -- I mean what you're saying is right, but I think last quarter -- so if you remember, I mean, the first half for MRM was significantly sort of muted in terms of revenues, right? While they are doing good in terms of markets, I think, this quarter, it -- sale -- revenue growth and -- compromises the margins a little bit. So that has actually diluted our margins for the quarter.
Okay. And secondly: Now do these numbers that we reported for this quarter include any trials that you were doing with TeleSign? I remember you saying, I think, a couple of quarters back that there is...
No, no, no. There is nothing that we are doing right now because we're not -- I mean, because of competitive -- competition commissions and other aspects, we can't do -- I mean some of these would be tantamount into [indiscernible]. So I think we're working independently as 2 entities right now. Once the deal closes, at that point in time, the throughput would start.
Okay. And one more thing. As you consolidate with TeleSign at some point of time, your volume is consolidated. Is it possible that the enterprises may not be -- may have a challenge because -- due to higher concentration coming from just one particular CPaaS player? Because ultimately TeleSign and Route will be considered as one by an enterprise, and that may lead to some of the enterprise trying to diversify their exposure to some other key players [indiscernible] concentration.
Yes. So Swapnil, there are many customer, what TeleSign has, we don't have, okay? Just some of the classic example is like Spotify or Netflix [ or others, right ]? So many customers we don't have. We don't serve them. And there are a few large we serve, both. We both serve them, fine, but there are many of them -- the U.S.-based, we don't serve them directly. And that is the opportunity we're seeing long term, where we will get, as a one combined team, to serve all the customer base [ if we work as a ] single entity or a partnership.
And Swapnil, just to add to what Rajdip said. So I mean, as part of the integration exercise, I mean, we have done exhaustive work on all this along with our global consulting firm, so at this point in time, there is no -- I mean we don't believe that we've -- run any concentration risks per se, I mean, if at all. I mean we'll both complement each other rather than, I mean, kind of creating any concentration risk per se. So I think that is again a very positive kind of outcome that we have been able to kind of -- at least from a hypotheses standpoint, been able to formalize.
Right, but just to -- just for clarity sake, would it be able -- would you guys be able to give us what will be the total overlap of revenues between TeleSign and Route today? I do understand you very clearly mentioned that there are a few other clients which you do not serve...
Swapnil, at this point in time, it will be premature for us to kind of divulge some of these information considering...
[ We have no clarity ] [indiscernible] right now [indiscernible].
The next question is from the line of Dipesh Mehta from Emkay Global.
Two questions. First, about one -- in last quarter, we announced large e-commerce client deal. And in that, you broadly indicated India is roughly half. Half is from around 8, 9 countries outside of India. So can you provide some update? I think, partly, you touched upon, but if you can provide more clarity on it. Second question is now if, let's say, one look at it, some of the challenges which we face in Q3, Q4 or maybe Q3 particularly. Now it has some implication in Q4, some kind of a quarter kind of delay in one large deal. So base effect is supportive for FY '25 growth trajectory, plus some of the action which you highlighted in terms -- new product growth what we are witnessing. Do we expect our FY '25 growth trajectory will be much better than what you might have anticipated at the end of Q2? If you can provide qualitative comment around it.
So Dipesh, honestly, to see some of these deals which you're talking about materialize on time, plus the Vodafone deal, plus the TeleSign synergies, right, this will definitely lead to a much better revenue guidance [ for this year, right ]?
Rajdip, sorry to interrupt, but your voice is breaking. I can't hear you clearly.
As I said, the Vodafone deal plus all these new -- I think we got a new large e-commerce giant base of Asia. I think that is also a big deal for us right now. There are lots of banks we are working right now. There is definitely this large e-commerce company for 9 countries which will come, Vodafone deal. Plus the synergies between TeleSign, Route Mobile and Proximus will definitely add much higher revenue potential for the next financial year. Right now we might -- not able to give any kind of a guidance. We are still at very early stage of, but definitely we see a huge growth and potential of this partnership in next financial year.
Understood. So I understand [ for ] qualitative '25. I just want an update on this deal. You said there is some delay even in the e-commerce kind of client, but if you can...
[ There is the growth ]. See the -- first of all, their entire system was [ saved ] in the month of December. Now in January, [ they all are back ]. And we started communication to start doing testing, and I think the testing is over. We will -- may start getting traffic very soon. It will start country by country, not just all country together, so it's a process [ at their end ] which may take some time, but even 1 country adding to our platform -- as I said, you've got -- even 3 to 4 countries we'll start between this quarter may lead to about $3 million to $4 million additional revenue to our portfolio.
Understood. So broadly, this will be -- fully ramp-up somewhere in Q1. That is right understanding.
Yes, Q1 next year, yes.
[Operator Instructions] We have the next question from the line of Ronak Chheda from Awriga Capital Advisors.
Am I audible?
Yes.
Yes, yes.
A couple of questions. One is on this global scenario just going back to these ILD fees we've seen in the quarter; and what we've seen, that the fungible volumes have been [ backed up ] and not just for India but globally. So how -- now when you're thinking about, let's say, 2, 3 years down the line as a CPaaS business of the entire group entity, how are you seeing the competitive intensity? And in your view, do we see this as a structural trend where the volumes will keep on coming down on the ILD fees not just in India but in all the markets where we operate where the fungible volumes will shift to other platforms? Just your thoughts on this.
We are very clear in terms of the, as a platform company, we have all the channels available within our offering. And if the customer is looking out to change from platform A to platform B, the -- everything is possible from our end, but as far as that messaging trend is concerned, there is a huge adoption and the growth in the SMS side also. On ILD business, we have not seen that kind of degrowth. It was [ just onetime ]. I think the -- most of OTT players wanted to reduce their costs for those particular months, and that is a trend you are seeing. And as far as I know, there are markets where prices are almost 0.25 and still all the OTT players are using those countries' networks and paying that much amount, so I don't think there's any change we can see, but then definitely business channels may be used by these OTT players to have OTT -- OTP for one channel and promotion for other channels. That is possible, but it all depends with the regulatory matters also because there are various regulatory aspects is -- linked to this kind of traffic to be terminated between the country.
And just an extension to this question [ we had of ] the Vodafone deal. We have certain business assumptions baked in, right, and there is some commitment also. So just if the channel changes or shifts, the OTT player shifts between the channels, do you see a risk to the $100 million business annual run rate that we've baked in?
No. That is a minimum we have baked in and the potential is much higher. Considering all the parameters, we believe that $100 million is minimum we can receive out of that.
Understood. And just lastly, on, Rajdip, you had mentioned in the last call that there was some deals on the MNO side which we were hoping to close this quarter...
Sorry...
On the MNO side, we had certain deals in pipeline on the firewall side of the business. And you mentioned in the call that we were hoping to sign, but we don't see that. So just an update there. Is this delayed? Or are we out of, beyond that question...
We will announce something in this quarter. That is -- that also got delayed because of the network freeze in various country due to -- last month, so we might get some kind of announcement in this quarter for a firewall win.
Understood. And lastly, on this competition globally, how is the pricing right now? Because we see some pressures on the margins as well. So how is the pricing? And how is the competitive scenario which you are seeing today?
As I said, like, Route Mobile is a unique company based out of India. We are definitely not offering one country to all of different companies. We are offering multiple countries. And there are very few, limited number of players right now in the market who has this kind of coverage and potential. And I think, if you see, there are 5 or 6 companies only who serve the customers for global termination; and we are 1 of that. And if there is a pricing challenge but there's an -- what I see normally is a channel shift. And we see lots of use cases for WhatsApp and lots of use cases for RCS. These are all new use cases. And that's the potential we see from CPaaS industry because the growth on RCS and WhatsApp are totally new use cases. It is not somehow -- like killing the SMS volume as such because the 2-way communication, the conversational chat, which is like -- is a new thing right now. And we see a growth on that as part of a business and will -- it will be continuing. So most of the companies, most of the enterprises are now looking out to engage their customer with the various mode of communication. And RCS and WhatsApp is one of them, including SMS right now, so we are very bullish about the growth of CPaaS and omnichannel in -- coming as -- down the line.
The next question is from the line of Sarang Sanil from RW Investment Advisors.
My first question is, is it possible to give volume growth in NLD and ILD for the quarter.
Gautam, if you have...
Kind sir, we don't share that level of details right now...
Sure. So was there a degrowth and...
[ I can give you ] India. India, the volume growth was around 2%. [indiscernible].
Okay, okay, okay. My second question is since there was a guarantee in volume given to Vodafone Idea, the firewall deal. So is that part affected or renegotiated as we are planning to go live with a 3 months delay now?
We cannot give those kind of detail right now. There's definitely agreement between Vodafone Idea -- we have a certain agreement, but we may -- not able to share in this call.
Okay, okay. Third question would be what are the margin levers going forward. Since RCS, WhatsApp would take -- the new products would take time to scale to the 400 crores, 500 crores range, what would be the levers in the next couple of years?
Levers will be just omnichannel, right, so e-mail, WhatsApp, RCS and voice will be the levers for the next coming years. I mean we're clearly placed well and our platforms are working well. We are amongst the top 5 partners with Google on RCS. And I think we're doing fairly well on RCS right now. And on WhatsApp, I think we are among the premium partners as well. And then I think that things are going really well for Route Mobile on omnichannel and things are going good. And we believe that, in coming quarters, this will keep [indiscernible].
All right. And the final question will be what is the effective tax rate for this year and the next couple of years.
18% to 20%.
18% [ and ] 20%, okay, sure.
Yes.
The next question is from the line of [ Suresh ], an individual investor.
I just want to understand what revised guidance is for the current year; as well as, in the past, we spoke about $1 billion revenues 2 to 3 years. Has anything changed on the long-term outlook both on the margins as well as revenues? And what is the revised guidance for this and next year, if you may?
Gautam...
Yes. So in terms of guidance, I think we revised this financial year's guidance from the 20%, 25% down to 15% to 17%; and that's largely to do with the industry tailwinds. Considering, I mean, some of these large contracts which should go live during the course of this quarter, we'll see the full year benefit of that play out. And there are, as Rajdip said, some large MNO deals also that we're working on which are firewall [ leads ] across multiple operators. So some of these things, I think, will help us accelerate. And then for next year, I think the way -- as, I think, somebody had kind of highlighted what base effect, I think, next year, we're looking at a very strong year from a growth standpoint. And then the $1 billion revenue over 3 to 4 years, I think that stands valid even today, I think. And especially with this Proximus deal, we believe it will open a lot of avenues across the developed markets, which will be a catalyst to drive the core business.
In one of the television interviews, Rajdip mentioned that -- combined entities TeleSign and Route Mobile targeting a $2 billion revenue in like 3, 4 years. I know this merger is probably [ evaluated to ] both organizations but want to check if that's still...
That's still intact. I think, if you see, combined revenue of both the companies is over $1 billion [ already ], so we definitely stick to that $2 billion. And we believe we can overachieve also.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will take that as our last question. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Rajdip Kumar Gupta for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, everyone. Thank you for joining this call. And we're looking forward to the strong quarter, this one. And we are working very hard to get more contracts and at least to work on our existing contracts to go live. Thank you for joining this call. Thank you and have a nice evening.
Thank you. On behalf of Route Mobile Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.
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