Suprajit Engineering Limited (532509) Earnings Call Transcript
February 3, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Suprajit Engineering Limited Q3 Earnings Call hosted by Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers Limited. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Vijay Sarthy from Anand Rathi. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thanks, Asha. Good morning, and welcome to the Q3 FY '20 conference call of Suprajit. So as usual, we have management team here. We have Mr. Ajith Kumar, Founder and Chairman; we have Mr. Mohan, MD and group CEO; and Medappa, the CFO and Company Secretary. We will initially start with the discussion about the Q3 results and then followed up with a Q&A. Over to you, Mr. Ajith. Thanks.
Good morning. I welcome you all for the Q3 and 3Q performance discussion on this call. I would like to thank Anand Rathi for organizing this call. I would start with Medappa to give you a quick update on the numbers, which is all being circulated as you would have all received by now, followed by an operational review by Mohan, and then I will give you a quick comment before -- after that, we will start the Q&A. Medappa?
Thank you. Good morning to all. We have reported the unaudited financial results for the 9 months ended 31st December 2019. The consolidated revenue for the 9 months ended 31st December 2019 was INR 1,174 crores as against INR 1,159 crores for the corresponding period last year. The consolidated operational EBITDA was INR 164 crores as against INR 169 crores for the corresponding period last year.
[And what is the profit after income tax] disclosed already to the stock exchanges?
The consolidated profit after tax was INR 101 crores as against INR 92 crores for the corresponding period last year. The stand-alone revenue for the 9 months ended 31st December 2019 was INR 813 crores as against INR 791 crores for the corresponding period last year. The stand-alone operational EBITDA was INR 144 crores as against INR 138 crores for the corresponding period last year. The stand-alone profit after tax was INR 112 crores as against INR 87 crores for the corresponding period last year. Thank you.
Mohan?
Yes. Thank you. As we all know, the headwinds in the domestic business continues. However, with that comes in the excitement and the hopes of launch of BS-IV, BS-IV revival. I would say that the OEs -- the OEMs have been pretty proactive, but at the same time, they have been very cautious as against the switchover that happened between BS-III to BS-IV, where the industry burnt their fingers. Therefore, this has resulted in a lower offtake of BS-IV, and they are ramping it down very clearly, which would mean lower sales for us. However, we see that there is some uptick in the current month, that is in Jan, due to the ramping up of BS-VI versions. So I guess it is going to take time for a recovery. But definitely, on the OE front, we hope that this trend continues. However, while this has reduced the OE front, it has resulted in kind of a increase in sales in the aftermarket. We are seeing this happening both in the cable market and also in the halogen bulb market, growing smartly between -- anywhere between 15% to 20%. Moving to specific divisions. In the cable division, domestic cable division, Narsapura plant has been commissioned and it has been as per plan. We are right now ramping up very steeply because it caters to be a fix. Our expansion plant at SAL, which is Suprajit Automotive for exports, has also been commissioned. And again, as per plan, commercial production has started. On the halogen bulbs production of Phoenix Lamps Division -- at the Phoenix Lamps Division in Chennai, which is the plant that we bought over from Osram, completed 3 months of successful production. In terms of quality, delivery and service, the customers are pretty happy, and the integration and cross-pollination between the plants are going on, and it has been pretty good. Moving over to our foreign entities, Luxlite, Trifa, restructuring got completed in December, and we exited the warehouse and office at Annweiler and we have a consolidated warehouse now, which brings in operational efficiencies and also cost, I would say, advantages. And we have moved the office in Germany from Annweiler, where we had been all these years, to a place called Hauenstein, which is a smaller office, and we have wind down the manpower substantially. Moving over to Suprajit Europe. The Slovenia, Koper warehouse, has started operations. This was basically to face the Brexit and to give certain level of confidence to the customers. So we have moved already the Tier 1 business to SEK, as we call it, Suprajit Europe Koper, and the OE supplies will start happening. I would like to inform that we recently won an award from BMW for the worldwide -- the global supplies and delivery, and this was in recognition of our supplies across continents, be it in Asia, in Europe, in North or South Americas. So we were 1 among the 3 suppliers, which got this award and [we made it on top]. Moving over to Wescon Controls. The -- sorry, staying back on SEU, right now, we are seeing some, I would say, cost redundancies there because you would be seeing SEK is moving up, but at the same time, we cannot wind down SEU in Birmingham -- at Tamworth. Therefore, we would be seeing some amount of cost inefficiencies at SEU for some time as we have this ramp down and ramp up happening. Moving over to Wescon Controls. The seasonal uncertainty hangs over the entire industry there. Coupled with it, the China trade war, uncertainties that happened. So generally, most of our customers are having difficulties in selling to big bosses. Therefore, there is certain amount of, I would say, turbulence in the air in the U.S. So having said that, at Wescon, we are focusing a lot on operational efficiencies because this is a good time to do these things. And the restructuring is on and very, very important is that there was certain lack of focus on SENA strategy, the Suprajit Engineering Non-Automotive. So we just decided that we need to push the pedal a bit more there. So this is now being overseen through what we are calling as an operation catalyst, and there are catalysts coming from India -- or going from India to Wescon to ensure that these things are happening and we keep the focus. Right now, we are a team of 3 people from India guiding the team at Wescon to make those changes, be it on the operational front or on the sales front. Thank you.
Thank you, Mohan. The current major, I would say, one of the major issues for us is the transformation from the BS-IV to BS-VI, which is now on the way. We have seen some of our customers ramping down BS-IV and ramping up BS-VI. The pipeline stocks are being liquidated at certain discounts by the customers, and they're getting ready for the BS-VI full launch this -- next month and from April in a full scale. So this is a bit of a turmoil time. We still don't know how this will pan out in terms of business for them, in terms of offtake of vehicles in the actual marketplace. So we feel that this turbulence is going to continue for at least another 2 quarters. That means June is a quarter where we'll get some feel of it. Probably in the second quarter of next year, hopefully, things will start improving. So we feel that the slowdown, which is happening -- which is now almost 15 months old, going to be so for another quarter at least, that is the first quarter of starting April, but it could even spillover to the second quarter of next year. So we are bracing for that, tightening our belt. We are trying to keep our costs low. We are making our investments minimal. We are making sure that the efficiency that -- all our plants are optimally used so that our operational performance, as you would have seen, continues to be at a fairly decent clip. Our margins, on a stand-alone basis and even on consolidated, has more or less been stable. That's largely because of the cost-cutting measures, operational efficiency measures that we have taken. With this, I will let the floor open for questions and then we'll answer wherever we can. Thank you. Over to the moderator, please.
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Abhishek Jain from Dolat Capital.
We have seen improvement of revenue on quarter-on-quarter and Y-on-Y basis despite sharp fall in industry volume, especially for the 2-wheelers. So just wanted to know, improvement in revenue is because of adding new capacity for HMSI in Narsapura? Or increase in realization for the BS-VI product? Or is it only the impact of adding one extra cable for CBS, sir?
I think there is multiple reasons, actually. One is, of course, on the BS-VI and due to CBS extra cable, there has been some extra additions into number of cables, selectively, not across the board. That is number one. And number two, also, I think, to some extent, the newer products that has been launched by the customers are somewhat more, I would say, pricey or little more -- specification-wise, little more complex. So the price per piece also increases. So I would say, realization also has increased. And of course, the aftermarket has been strong. So that is one side of it. And you're also right in -- Narsapura is fairly recent. Only in the last quarter, we went more into full-scale -- I mean, started commercial production, which is getting into full-scale only in this quarter. But overall, I would say the reason for increase in sales is price realization, continued improvement in the aftermarket, where we had actually increased our prices in the beginning of the year, and overall I think content for vehicle are selectively going down.
So sir, how much incremental revenue will come from the Narsapura plant from next year? Will we take our capacity utilization of around 50% in FY '20?
So you must realize that FY -- Narsapura is not bringing us new business. We had just shifted the manufacturing from our current location in Bommasandra to the location next to the customer. It's just actually a shift of manufacturing base from Bommasandra to Narsapura. It's not a new business. What is happening, fortunately, for us is that the BS-VI products are -- happened to have a little higher price realization. And secondly, without mentioning the names, our competition has not lived up to the expectation. So we are getting slightly larger business from our -- this particular customer because, to some extent, the competition has not lived up to their expectation.
So what is the current SOB from the HMSI with you?
On an overall basis, we are at about 50%, 55%, probably 55%. At this moment, maybe 55% and little more than 55%, although the stated commitment from Honda is 50%. We are more than that because I think wherever the competition is not able to deliver, we are delivering. So that has inched up our share of business, I think, by about 5%, 7%, yes.
Okay, sir. My another question is a little bit the margin front. There's a sharp contraction in margin during this quarter despite sharp jump in aftermarket business. Is it because --
Sorry, sorry. Please repeat.
So we have seen a sharp contraction in margin during this quarter despite...
Contraction?
Yes, in margin.
In which segment you are talking? Stand-alone?
Margin, margin. That is the consolidated margin.
No, even in the standalone, the margin has not come down. It's at the same level as last -- same -- 9 months last year, yes, in the standalone as well. It didn't come down.
I'm talking about this quarter margin. There is a sharp...
For quarter, okay. Yes. Quarter-to-quarter, sometimes it's a little difficult to explain. It can be just the product mix or movement of inventory. It would be also because of simply, if you look at, I would say, things like ForEx fluctuations, all those things affect. So I would say, overall margin for the quarter, if you look at operational level, there had not been much of a difference. In fact, that's what I would say. At operation level, I don't think there is much of a change.
So I just wanted to know, is it more impacted from the underutilization of the new plant for the Narsapura? Or have you taken any price reduction for the BS-IV products?
No, no, no, there's no price reduction. Your other point is probably valid that, to some extent, when you're scaling up the production, first few months or first 6 -- first 2, 3 quarters, the costs are there, but the scale of operation is not there, which is correct in terms of Narsapura till December. I think, from this month, I think that would also go away. It's the same thing for Suprajit Automotive also, where we just started our commercial production, which is so far for almost 6, 9 months, there has been cost incorporated. So these startup costs also have some bearing, yes, I agree.
So what is your margin outlook? Will it come at a normal level from the next quarter or Q1 FY '21?
I think if you look at the next overall year, we have always said that our EBITDA margin so far has been between 14% to 16% is what we have been saying on a consolidated basis. As of now, we are at about 14% on an operational basis, on a consolidated basis and little better on a stand-alone basis. I think we should be able to manage that band that we have always said. I think it should be possible.
Sir, during this quarter, our revenue from Phoenix has gone up but margin has gone down significantly. Is it because of the adding revenue from the Osram?
Yes, you are correct.
So how that's had a...
Yes. The reason for increased sales is probably, to some extent -- but of course, it's small 2.5 months of sales for the whole 9 months. So to some extent, that is correct. The sales increase has been there. But on stand-alone basis, clearly, it didn't have a growth. It had a marginal de-growth in line with the -- not in line, actually, better than the industry. Margin is also because of -- we have to look at the consolidated number. One is initial taking over and cleaning up stuff at PLD, Chennai. And also, there would be some costs relating to subsidiaries because, as Mohan has earlier mentioned, there has been a transformation there happening, moving the material from one warehouse to other warehouse, scaling down. There are about x number of employees have been let go, the cost relating to those employees, all have been factored in. So to that extent, I think the margins have had an effect.
So what is the outlook for the margin for Phoenix going ahead? Because Osram -- I expect that margins from the Osram, that will be at a lower side versus the existing business? So...
We don't comment on individual units performance, but I think, overall, I think we have been at around 12% EBITDA margin on the Phoenix division, including Trifa and Luxlite. And if you look at last year was that, and this year, is at about 11.5%, maybe 0.5% or 50 to 75 basis points is purely because of the reasons I've just mentioned. Going forward, we continue to be hopeful that around 12% is what we will maintain because I think next year, Trifa and Luxlite together should do slightly better than what they have done this year because all the costs incurred in terms of restructuring is over. So I think that would be some advantage.
Sir, my last question is related with the global business that has gone down 4% in last 9 months. And we have also significant -- seen a significant de-growth in the 4-wheeler business. So what is the current competitive position in 4-wheeler space? And what sort of the pricing environment is there?
On the automotive side, the de-growth that you're talking about on exports is largely because of scaling up for Brexit last year. We had done what I would call as advance billing to lot of customers, I would say, in the March of last year because of the crisis on Brexit that it might happen. So to that extent, customer were sitting with -- in their godown, lots of stock. To that extent, this year, sales has come down. So it's, I think, just an [optical] stuff. Going forward, I think the business in automotive is very strong. We continue to deliver new projects to customers. As Mohan said, one of our key customers, BMW, recently, we're 1 of the 3 to get an award for outstanding performance. So I think that part is still very strong. It is just that, that this stock adjustments due to Brexit was happening last year, which had an effect on this year. So having said that, I must also say that the global automotive scene is -- continues to be challenging with the recent things, whether it is -- now the new thing to add on it, the coronavirus. We don't know how much disruption that will have. So that challenge is there. But the new contracts that we've won will continue to give us a growth trajectory for the coming year -- coming years, actually.
The next question is from the line of Prasheel Shah from CapGrow Capital.
I wanted a composition -- I mean, product mix within the PLD segment.
Say that again. I couldn't get your point.
I wanted a product mix within the Phoenix Lamps Division?
Okay. Mohan, will you answer that?
I really cannot comprehend the question. When you say product mix, are you talking about what is H7, H4, HS1? That's the question?
No. Between PV -- passenger vehicles and 2-wheelers?
I cannot offhand talk about it. Probably, offline we'll give it to you. But I would say, ballpark, if I look at it, it is -- HS1 is going to be pretty huge because it's 2-wheelers. And then it would be H4. And again, in H4, you have for 12 volts and 24 volts, getting into partly 2-wheelers, partly 4-wheelers, 24 volts predominantly getting the commercial vehicle market.
Okay. And what do you think is the market share of LEDs in the passenger and 2-vehicle space? Since we are not in LED, you've taken a conscious decision of sticking to halogen, I would just like to know what the market share is of LEDs, like market penetration of LEDs?
Market penetration of LED. Okay. Mohan, you want to answer that, the current status?
Sure. Well, let's first -- since you are talking about us sticking to halogen, so let me just take the conversation slightly a bit higher. If you look at our total revenues that we get out of PLD, a substantial portion of it is from the aftermarket operations, be it Indian aftermarket or global aftermarket. And I think that there is a good amount of headroom to play around with in the global aftermarket, while in the Indian aftermarket, in these last 5 years that we have, I would say, been handling PLD, we have taken the pole position in the Indian aftermarket. So with this, I would say that we can consolidate both in the Indian aftermarket and move on to conquer bit more territories on the global aftermarket. Now coming to the OE segment. What you are telling is right, there is going to be a shift. You cannot wish it away. It will happen. Right now, the penetration is low, but as we go forward, there is going to be some amount of seesaw. It will all depend upon how much the customer is willing to take. One of the customers, I'm sure you'll be able to get that information from the market, introduced LED but they backtracked. They said, "No, we should not take out halogen because customers' acceptance, particularly in the rural areas, was pretty poor in that segment." Therefore, they decided to introduce halogen back. Therefore, for that model, they have got 2 variants: 1 variant is LED, 1 variant is halogen. So this is turbulent. Long trend, long-term trend, if I look at it, will it be LED? The answer is yes. Right now, the penetration is low, but it is going to increase. As far as PLD is concerned, from a strategic point of view, as a last man standing strategy, we will continue to be in this business. And our market is not just India, it is beyond the shores of India.
Just to add what Mohan has said, I think, to rephrase what he said, 70% of our business is in aftermarket. That's where we are planning to grow, and we have very minimal presence outside of India. That is our strategy for Phoenix Lamps. And Indian OEM, again, as he rightly said, is 30%, 70% is aftermarket, 30% is Indian OEM. There has been some penetration of LED. Today, as he said, it is small. It's probably 10%, I would say. Will it increase? The answer is yes. But today, our strategy is why we cannot supply to the global OEMs. And I'm happy to inform you that we have had certain good break in that. Without getting into the details, we have been able to start supplying to certain global OEMs in a small way to start with, but it will take some time. So the fact is that after having -- we got our quality levels to the level that is required for the international market, we have had some success in getting certain OEM businesses.
Okay. What you are saying, I partly agree with that. But recently, I was talking to one of the leading lighting manufacturers, but their take is that the penetration is somewhere around 30%, 35% in the PV space, which is vastly different from what you are saying, which is at 10%.
I'm talking of the overall market. I didn't talk about PV market as such. You must realize, the biggest market of the 20 million is 2-wheelers. So that's where our business is mainly also, right? So overall, I'm talking about the overall, I'm talking about 2-wheelers, 3-wheelers, 4-wheelers, 6-wheelers, 8-wheelers, and any off-road vehicles that use -- has headlamps. Overall penetration in India is around 10%, and maybe I'm off by 2%, 3%, but that's about it. That is current status. And we agree that, that status will change.
And are you guys willing to share some more granular details on the Osram deal as in the margins or the kind of volume that it will generate?
We have an NDA with Osram in terms of sharing such details. So we are bound by that. But all I can say is that the interesting part, as probably Mohan has mentioned in the briefing, is that, within 3 months, our supplies have been absolutely top of the line for them. In fact, the comment that I've made in the final concluding call of hand shaking after all the final issues are dealt with was that our deliveries within 3 months is better than what they were able to deliver themselves when it was their plant. So things have changed. I cannot give the numbers at this moment. But all I want to say is that a significant part of our current production is all going to Osram and it has been very successfully done. And we are today trying to see where else we can utilize some of the capacities that they have at Chennai.
Okay. And sir, my last question, my last observation I would say, so I see that your PLD margins for this quarter particularly is actually the lowest in the last 10 quarters or maybe more than that. It's actually one of the lowest. So...
I agree. For the quarter, when you look at it, the quarter also had the charges of whatever that cost that we had to accommodate at PLD for cleaning up, restructuring, changing, that's number one. And also at Trifa and Luxlite, everything I've explained there, it's all happened in the last quarter.
The next question is from the line of [ Amar Mourya from ALFAccurate Advisors ].
Sir, sorry to squeeze a little bit on the Osram, but I mean -- what I -- I mean, if I see Osram, Osram have almost around 3 companies here in India, that is Osram LEDVANCE Private Limited, Osram Lighting Private Limited, Osram Automotive Lamp Private Limited and Osram Continental India Private Limited. So basically, when we acquired -- we acquired the asset of which company?
Medappa, do you know the company...
Yes. Osram Lighting.
Okay. That's it.
Osram Lighting Private Limited?
Yes.
Yes.
So sir, in Osram Lighting Private Limited, like if I see the overall revenue of Osram Lighting is around -- I mean, INR 466 crores. So is that -- we had acquired some specific part of the plant which is basically related to some specific lighting business?
Okay. Let me answer this without getting into specifics. I think you have to probably get little more work from Osram themselves. So basically Osram used to make certain types of halogen lamps and were importing a significant part, which is also required for their non-automotive requirements. So their INR 400 crore is including all automotive, made in India automotive, imported non-automotive, that is home lighting, whatever you look at it, it is the total picture. So just basically today operating as a trade operation. And they did have that one plant, which was supplying their requirement of halogen lamps for some of these customers. Now that have been taken over by us, and we are giving it to them. Their INR 400 crore is not the Chennai plant business, just to make sure. Clear?
Okay. Because why I'm saying this, sir, like if I see their trading stock, which is around about -- out of the INR 466 crores, the trade -- purchase of stock and trade is around INR 322 crores. So basically...
It's all import and they do import...
Yes, yes. So basically, INR 144 crore is kind of a revenue, which is basically is assumed to be a kind of halogen revenue. Is it fair understanding?
So in halogen -- again, in halogen, there is an automotive halogen and the non-automotive halogen, right? The house lighting business is much, much larger. The industrial and other things are much larger, which we are not there.
Okay. So is it like INR 144 crore would be 50-50...
I don't know. I have not seen any of the numbers, so -- the Osram number, we can't comment also. So...
So basic -- sir, basic intent is that to understand that -- I mean, how much would be the possibility from India? And I believe we also are looking to explore some opportunities from the export market as well from Osram?
Yes. Yes
So at least, what would be a peak kind of a revenue, which we can at least address in India? I'm not asking about the export number? Because that revenue is already there. You're going to replace that revenue from -- I mean, earlier, the plant was with Osram. Now the plant is with you.
Yes.
Except certain efficiencies, I mean, I believe we can -- we will be ballpark near to the same number?
In terms of the numbers that we can do with Osram, I'm not at liberty to disclose because of NDA. So it's the same answer. But the point that I'm making is that their requirements, whether it is for aftermarket, whether it's for OE, whether it's for exports, we can meet any of their requirements. In fact, as we speak, we also started meeting their exports requirements. So the quantity of it or the value of it, we are not able to disclose. And whatever they were doing in India, only part of it was done by their Chennai plant. Rest is all imported. Not just in automotive, in the overall -- anything to do with lighting business. They have imports of LEDs, they've import of halogen, they're importing for some other customers some base stuff for them. So it is very difficult for us to answer that question at all.
Okay, okay. So -- and because why I'm asking this, sir, even the cost of material which they were having is around INR 34 crores. So I mean basic intent is to understand the opportunity part from the India business. Okay, fair enough. I mean, secondly, sir, if I see your Suprajit non-automotive cable business, it has been de-growing from last 2 quarters, I mean, so is it like that Wescon issue is not yet resolved? I mean, how we should look at this?
Mohan, do you want to give a general answer, how we are approaching the whole thing?
Yes, sure. Yes, the fact is that there has been a de-growth, and that's very clear. And this has basically mirrored what has happened with the customers that we supply to. And in fact, just about -- in the last month, I have visited quite many suppliers with the Wescon team myself to understand the business out there. So we see very clearly a downward trend over there. One is, there is lot of unseasonality happening over there. For example, they keep everything ready for the snow season, and the snow gets delayed. Therefore, the big bosses were complaining. Therefore those OEMs to whom we supply are sitting on stocks. Same thing happens on the green season. So it is a seasonal product that we are facing there. And to couple with this, this China issue has happened, and there is so much of uncertainty out there. Everybody talks about the same thing. They are not able to predict the business so very accurately. Having said that, from our perspective, we are using this opportunity to, a, increase the operational efficiency, see how we can shift more and more production away from the Wichita plant into our Juarez plant, into our India plant. And therefore, we have this 3-plant strategy as a part of SENA. Therefore, how can we offer a bouquet to the customer, telling that these are the price points that I can supply to you with, with these lead times and therefore, this is the level of, I would say, certainty that you need to give to me because if I'm going to supply it out of India, I have a longer lead time. So I don't want to be a sitting duck with a lot of stock on my account. Therefore, we are addressing these fundamental issues of business, explaining it to the customers. It is going to take some time for that to sink it, but I'm pretty much positive that we have a headroom there for growth.
Okay, okay. So -- but then, what I'm trying to understand here is that despite a top line de-growth, I think you had been fairly able to maintain your profitability. Even at a 17% kind of a de-growth on a year-over-year basis, your margin has been healthy in the overall non-automotive business. So I mean, what you are doing there to basically address this? I mean, how you are managing this whole thing?
I think some of those margin would have also come from currency fluctuations and other incomes. But operationally, I think, to be very honest with you, I think the top line for the quarter have come down. And also, there have been some margin deterioration for the reason that Mohan has mentioned. Once we've done that, I think everything else falls into place. The reason why, let us say, compared to 2 years ago, the margin at Wescon has come down is largely because the sales has not grown. And the SENA strategy has not been well adopted by our team at Wescon. And I think, as we said, we have a catalyst team now. And in fact, we have made certain changes and some restructuring of the people there that has happened recently to refocus our business on SENA business development strategy apart from operational excellence. So I think all these things in the medium term we are very confident that it will give us a good, new businesses. Just to give you a parallel example. When we acquired Suprajit Europe almost 10, 12, 14 years ago, for the first 3, 4, 5 years we struggled to sell the idea of front-ending from Europe and manufacturing out of India. Once that traction and once that convincing happened, then the business was like a cakewalk. Today, Suprajit Europe gives us dividend, and they've got a much better profitability profile. I think it's the same patience that we require for Wescon as well. That the front-ending from U.S. and manufacturing out of Juarez or in India is a concept that takes a little more than what we thought. Frankly, we thought that it will catch up much faster, but it didn't. But we are still confident that the same philosophy will work in this model as well.
Okay. One last, sir. Like when you guided for this 14% kind of a margin, this is also including other income or excluding other?
Sorry. I think our operational -- the press release is the right data to look for the quarter -- for the 9 months.
No. I'm saying...
Sorry. Tell me.
When you say the guidance for EBITDA margin, there's a range of guidance of 14%, right?
Yes.
So basically, this includes your other income part into this?
No, no, no. We are talking about operational.
Operational.
Operational EBITDA, yes.
The next question is from the line of Bharat Gianani from Sharekhan.
Just 2 questions from my side. So this year has been pretty flattish on the top line front if you see because of the challenges in the domestic market as well as PLD and Wescon not living up to the expectation. So I just wanted to understand like given whatever things you have guided like FY '21 from second half there is expected to be seen recovery in the domestic OEM plus the medium-term strategy of Wescon and PLD to increase the share of OEMS. So would you like to put some figure on the top line would expected for next year? Will it be close to like 7%, 8%? Or like any number you would like to highlight? Even if not number, any direction comment would be really helpful. So that would be my first question.
I think directional comment only I can make, very difficult to say because the current Indian market, which forms still about 60% of our business, is still at a turmoil, and we don't know exactly what's going to happen. But I think we will still stand by whatever we have been saying for many years now that we'll outperform Indian automotive industry growth by 5% to 10%. If you look at the 9-month number, we're at flat, but industry is at minus 15%. So technically, we have 15% delta over the industry growth. So my point is that, that 5% to 10% outperformance of Indian automotive industry, whatever that number is, is still a best bet that we can offer in terms of how we will perform. If Indian industry grows at 5%, we hopefully do 10% -- 10-plus percent. I think that's the answer I can give.
Correct. And any outlook on the exports revenue you would like to give for the next year?
Export, I think this -- when I said this outperformance is including our total consolidated sales status, that would largely -- one of the reason why we would outperform is I still would think that our export, particularly SAL and SEU, that would be quite strong. So that would be one of the stronger double-digit growth is what we expect.
Okay, okay, fine. And sir, last question on the margin side outlook for FY '21. I know that we have been doing a lot of restructuring on Wescon and PLD, especially on the export side of the business. And obviously, the domestic margins would have been impacted by lower offtake from the OEM. So FY '21, what do you expect? Because like I think 14% -- actually we are at lower end of the margin guidance that we have guided for over the past whatever range is, 14% to 16% long-term range. But I want to, first of all, understand. FY '21, do we expect a significant improvement at a consol level from 14%? Or do you still believe that FY '21 will be at the lower end of the...
FY '29 (sic) [ '21 ] will be a challenging year for everybody, not just for us. I think we are still trying to get out of the current domestic major issue of change of BS-IV to BS-VI and global uncertainties, anyway that is there, with business has been more or less flattish globally. So under these conditions, I don't see that -- if somebody's saying that from 14% well go to 16%, I think it is a bit farfetched. We should be -- we are hoping to still be in that range. But obviously, it will be at the lower end of the range, I think.
The next question is from the line of [ Agastya Dave ] from Seraphic Management & Advisory. The line for the current participant dropped. The next question is from the line of Pankaj Tibrewal from Kotak Asset Management.
You all know last 12, 18 months, both global and local, have been challenging. If I take a couple of years out, can you help us understand where is the energy of management going towards taking the company to a next level? And from a capital allocation perspective, what are the key priorities for you from a 24- to 36 months perspective? Just a broader thought process on the direction where the company is headed towards.
I think first part of this year, our focus has been to make sure that the restructuring at Trifa and Luxlite takes place well and it has taken place well. And it is more or less done and dusted. Of course, they have to start delivering business now with a single warehouse. The current energies are being spent at Wescon. At least 3 or 4 top management -- 3% to 4% of our top management is very closely monitoring to see how we could do a better job at Wescon in terms of business development and improving our operational expense. I think that's where the time is being spent. And another core team -- we have another team that is focusing on seeing -- in terms of capacity expansion, I think we have made a statement last time that we will stop at 300 million as far as cable is concerned, which is sufficient for at least for the next 2 years. We have got no issues on that. But what we are also looking at is the strategic positioning of the company in the global market in terms of trying to get -- for example, Osram was a nice click-on deal for us to increase our presence and strategize ourselves globally because we are positioning ourselves as a global supplier to Osram and why we can't do more of it, not only to them, but also to some of the other global majors, without mentioning names. And that's a major effort that we are spending on, trying to see how we can get those global majors in, let's say, Phoenix Lamps aftermarket strategy. We are also seeing why and what it takes to enter a market like Russia and the U.S. in the halogen lamp. That is another area where we are spending time and effort and money. We are also trying to see how we can get certain strategic assets globally, particularly in our core business, to increase our presence globally in terms of manufacturing footprint. We have a fairly good warehousing footprint, but manufacturing footprint is still limited. And last but not the least, we're also looking at, okay, we have got 2, 3 products with us. Is there anything interesting considering the changing technologies that makes sense to us, and it will have a long life in terms of the product? And last but not least is that we're also spending some time on our new tech center, which is being worked on and planned on, where we are trying to see what is it that we can do to do future-ready products in terms of changing technologies and requirement of the customers. I think these are some of the areas where the top management is spending a lot of time.
And from a capital allocation perspective, how the cash flows you want to deploy over the next couple of years?
Yes. I think the stated principle of between 20% to 30% of the cash will be distributed to the shareholders still holds. That's number one. Number two, I think we feel that now we understand nuances of acquisition well. We have done 4, 5, 6 of them. The last one that is requiring some attention is Wescon. Rest are all more or less on getting into good integration. So we think we still have the hunger and the fire in the belly that we can do whether a small-sized or somewhat larger-sized such inorganic opportunities. We'll look at it. We've been -- we have made that statement before. We continue to look at opportunities to deploy some of these cash.
The next question is from the line of Anirudh Shetty from Solidarity Investment.
Sir, when you give a guidance, when you said, look at growth as 5% to 10% over domestic auto, does that also include any future inorganic acquisitions that you might do?
Yes, it would. But then on a -- if it's a reasonable-sized acquisition, that year it might sort of shoot up beyond that. But it will have an ongoing cumulative effect, right? So yes, I meant that, too, yes.
Okay. And sir, you very nicely explained how you guys are focusing on each segment, each orders. So if I take a longish outlook say the next 3 to 5 years, which are the segments do you think should outperform on a growth basis?
Frankly, although our crybaby today is Wescon, we have a lot more hope on Wescon in a 3- to 5-year basis. I think that is a business that we can certainly get into. And I think we would have underperformed ourselves as a management if we don't catch up with some of the lost ground. So that is one area. And automotive exports is certainly another area where we think -- cable exports I mean. Automotive is -- we have set up another facility, which has gone into production now, which is basically doubling our capacity from 25 million cables of exports to 50 million cable of exports. So that is another area where we see significant growth.
Okay. But do you guys work with a sort of a ceiling, saying only so much of our revenue or EBITDA should come from exports from a derisking point of view? Or are you all okay with -- or you all have no such limit in some sense?
I think our -- the only way I have -- we have looked at is that do we -- when we first started, let's say, I go back 15 years ago, we were 95% dependent on 2-wheelers. Today, we are only some 35%, 36%. And another thing that we have internally set marked is on a consolidated basis, we do not want to have any customer beyond 10%. So it's a customer derisking strategy that we may grow with the customer, but a single customer should not be more than 10%. Once we do that, automatically, the derisking across the sector or across customers happens automatically, I think.
Got it. So you spoke about China, wherein some of our companies are facing issues due to the China trade war. But do you also see a long-term opportunity wherein China is strong in certain parts, OEM or whether it's OEM or replacement and now global customers are looking to derisk?
I mean, hypothetically, you are correct, not only because of the trade war and now this latest, whether coronavirus or anything, it seems to be happening all the time. This global pandemic seem to be happening out of -- without any sign and it is -- it seems to be happening out of there. So the hypothesis is right that they -- some of the manufacturing will move away from China into whether it is Vietnam, Thailand, India, wherever, or the East European blocks. But is it happening? I think, consciously, the people who have been not even looking at India are looking at India today. So particularly in the automotive business, we have seen certainly a lot more traction. Some of our customers today are not really seeing China as to put more business in, at least. Whatever business they have put in, they are quite happy with it probably or they don't want to change. But the newer businesses are being distributed to multiple other locations geographically. So there seems to -- it's not -- maybe they is a trickle. I hope it becomes more than a trickle. But yes, hypothetically, you are right.
Okay. So today, it is -- the progress is still slow. Okay.
Yes. I think, certainly, India has a better standing in terms of the automotive component business. I think India has proved through multiple suppliers that we are capable of delivering globally.
Got it. And just one final question from my side. So sir, we are in a business wherein customers are OEMs larger than us. I mean, and there's also the replacement side. Do we -- is there any margin pressure that we see year-on-year wherein the OEMs start to gradually squeezing us? So when we give a margin guidance of 14% to 16% and we're at 14% today, I just want to understand what are the margin levers that we see today, which can offset this pressure?
Yes. There's both good and bad about being public, I think. Our numbers are known to every customer. So it's a bit of a challenge. But the fact is that, ultimately, there is a global sourcing strategy and -- of the customers, I mean. And it is not just that Suprajit is quoting for it. It's -- let's say, 5 people or 5 suppliers are quoting. And ultimately, on that competitive bid, we win some, we lose some. And we sort of strategize ourselves at where we want to take the business, whether it is by giving a couple of percent margin more or less is a strategic decision we take. So at some point -- at certain level, we'll say, okay, we are not interested in this business anymore because it does not fit our bills in terms of the newer businesses. But in terms of existing businesses, price increases becomes very difficult when there is a market slowdown. I would say the current year has been one of the most challenging year in terms of customer pressure because when their volumes are down, they pass some to suppliers only. These are all part and parcel of our being in this business. Automotive is a very competitive business. But ultimately, it is determined by the market prices. And the market prices are determined, it's a question of how efficiently we'll be at Suprajit manufacture the same product vis-à-vis our competition. I think that's where because of our operational excellence that we have across our organization and our plants we have been able to eke out better margin than the competition. I think that's where we have been successful.
Okay. And so any other levers? You had also spoken about Wescon...
Yes. Of course, the point other lever is, of course, we have a global sourcing strategy as well. We are one of the few suppliers making, let's say, cable. Certainly, we are the only one out of India who has got a global sourcing strategy, too. So we are able to get the same product that what, let's say, an Indian supplier supplies at X, that's probably X minus 10% or 20% landed to India from other sources, other suppliers worldwide, who has a much better scale of operations. So the purchasing power is better. And because of that, that also adds to the margin to some extent. And last but least is, of course, our individual employee efficiencies is probably as good as you'll find anywhere. So all these things add up as additional margin side -- additional levers, I would say.
The next question is from the line of Chirag Shah from Edelweiss.
Sir, first question is on Wescon. If you go back 1, 1.5, 2 years kind of scenario, we were very hopeful that we'll be able to expand customers as well as new product portfolio in U.S. as well as in Europe. It seems it's been a slightly slow starter for us. Can you just indicate what are the learnings that you have on that strategy, so that you can integrate far better given that you are still optimistic on Wescon as an opportunity and which is the case, actually? So can you indicate some learnings from the past when -- which -- the story has not really played out until now?
Yes. Good point, Chirag. I think I would say that we adopted a kind of a hands-off approach to Wescon. Firstly, it is a remote location as well, not in India. So we let the management run the show based on their business strategy and budgets. So that didn't take off well. That's one of the reason, as you know, a year ago we had to let the CEO to go. The second part is that the industry itself has gone through quite a bit of turmoil itself. And the -- but what -- I think our team at Wescon didn't act quickly is that the way we approach the customer is that, okay, we'll supply you from Wescon at this price. And if they come back and say that, "No, no, this price is high," then I'll offer from Juarez at say 20% less. And if they say, "It's high," then we'll say, "Okay, we'll supply from India at 20% further less." But by the time customer has got tired of talking to us. So I think that strategy, which was what I would say, in a sense, was adopted, was not successful for us. What we've done of late, Mohan talked about project catalyst that we are now very closely in involved. There is at least a 4-member team, which are closely getting involved on very nitty-gritties of how they operate, not only operationally, but also on business development, including each course being vetted by us. So that strategy itself has changed. So I would say the learning was that we took a little bit of a hands-off strategy. I think looking back, yes, we should have been a little more hands-on, but which we are now. So given another year or 2 years' time, I think that will change. And we thought that it is -- customer will still come back when we go sequential price reduction, but customer took one quote. And if the price is high, they just went to their other suppliers and then just closed the deal. So by the time we are late to requote from a lower cost destination. So I would say these are the things that we have learned, and I think that is all been now factored into our future plan. So given another year or two's time, I'm pretty confident that there are a lot more businesses to be won. And we even have a new Vice president, Business development who has taken over there, who is fully focused on how to get more business to our low-cost destinations, not necessarily from the higher cost Wescon, Wichita destination.
And similarly, on the cables export, while we have been indicating a lot of business wins, but there still doesn't seem to be slowing in the P&L. So are there delays were there from a customer end?
Yes. There are 2 reasons. I'll get to your point quickly. One is, of course, last year to this year has become the best in strategy. There were some early deliveries made to customers. So this year, it has got impacted in terms of sales not showing an increase. But actually, if you normalize it, there is still a very good growth actually. But that's a part. I have to also accept that project launches have taken more time, anywhere from 3 to 9 months delays, number one. Number two, volume, what we expected to take place -- if there's say 100,000 vehicles or 500,000 vehicles, they're actually making 30%, 40% less. So both are the reasons for that. But I think eventually these are all new businesses. They will add to the business when they get launched.
And if I can just squeeze in last question on Phoenix. So now a large part of restructuring phase seems to be behind, be it domestic, be it the international piece. So from here on, how should we look at both growth as well as profitability? And also, would it be right that from here on you'll be more aggressive for gaining new businesses and new products?
I think again, now, as I said, it -- particularly if you're doing the aftermarket business, it's highly competitive. Let's face it. There are Chinese. There are Koreans. So there is a competition in the marketplace. Will we get more business? The answer is yes. How much time it will take? It's a competitive world. So it does take some time. But the point here is, on an overall basis is the question of the survival of the fittest in this business, particularly on Phoenix plants in the halogen business. The people who are having capacity, but not having the enough cash, they want to sell at any price to get a new business. But we are the ones who has got the right quality and also have a reasonably deep pocket. So we are the ones who are holding on to a sales and letting others to bleed. So the point here is that at least a few of our competitions have shut down and few of our competitors are actually bleeding. So it's a question of capacities will come down with the competition. Some of them already gone and some more expected to go in the next 2, 3 years' time. So the question is who is the last man standing with the right quality, right price, reasonable pricing and the right delivery model? I think that's where we will win in the long term. So if you're saying that will the margin will change? I don't think so. It's still a very competitive business. Will the business grow? The aim is to grow the business. But with the kind of excess capacity that is available in the world, that is also going to be challenging until some more closures happen. Some have happened. Some more should happen in the next couple of years. I think that is when we will have the margin profile improving and probably the sales profile also improving.
Sir, sorry to interrupt. Mr. Shah, I would request you to come back in the queue as we have other participants.
And by the way, moderator, I think it's already an hour into the call. We'll take 2 more questions, please.
Sure, sir. The next question is from the line of Nikhil Kale from Axis Capital Limited.
Most of my questions have already been answered. Just a couple of housekeeping ones. Could you just help me with the utilization level at Phoenix?
At Phoenix, is it?
Yes.
See, last year, we made about 65 million out of our 84 million capacity. Our production levels are at a similar level in terms of -- proportionately. So it is no different. I think this year there will be no increased capacity utilization, maybe 1 million here and there. I think that's where we will end up.
Okay. And would it be fair to assume that the new Chennai and the Osram facility -- the utilization has again ramped up at the Phoenix level? Or is it maybe...
I didn't get the question, Nikhil. You have to repeat.
No. Just wanted to understand at the new facility, that is the Osram, Chennai plant, is the utilization level at similar levels? Or is it lower?
No, some lines, again, I -- because of the NDA, I'm not able to get into specifics. Some lines are fully utilized. Some lines aren't because it means where we have business or where we have a clear buyback and where current requirement of our customer is high, that has been fully utilized. There are some lines which -- where the order position is not yet fully there. So they are not fully utilized. So I would say we are probably at about 60% capacity utilization.
Okay. And just lastly, could you just help me out with the aftermarket contribution for the automotive cables division?
Aftermarket contribution means, what do you mean?
The share of revenues from market.
Share of revenue. I don't have it, Nikhil. I think you can come offline to Medappa. He will be able to provide that.
The last question is from the line of Rakesh Jain from Haitong Securities.
Again just tapping a bit on the Osram line. Just wanted to -- directionally, if you could give us a sense. We understand the -- your agreement with that management. But directionally, if you could get a -- give us a sense. Since we would be sort of doing a contract manufacturing with them, would our margins at Osram be much lower than Phoenix division?
Okay. I'll give you a larger answer. The reason for acquiring the Chennai plant was not just because there is a buyback agreement. There is also a concern with our customer. You must realize both in the 2-wheeler and 4-wheeler, there is something like 60%, 70%, 80% market share in India. And the customers were also concerned about the single location. We're all in Noida. Actually our 2 plants are there. So there is also a concern. So one of the reasons that -- one of the equally important reason beyond the buyback was also derisking geographical location because customers are always concerned with the single sourcing, with quite a few of them were single sources. So that is one. Secondly, in terms of Osram, I think the -- we have a clear pricing agreement with them. Is that pricing agreement is decent? The answer is yes. But then is the plant operation is optimum? The answer is there is still some more work to be done. We have done quite a bit of good work. Because of our wonderful team at Noida, we have been able to translate few operational improvement plans. We've also been able to improve the purchasing plan because we are also buying on a much larger volume some of these parts. So we're able to also get certain price adjustments lower for our Chennai plant. So considering all these on a longer term with other customers also coming in, we can't just go by 1 customer who is currently Osram. But eventually, we will have other customers. When you look at that, let's say, a year down the line, I'm hoping that the margins would be no much different between the 2 plants.
Understood. Got it. Second was on the -- again, the Phoenix subsidiaries, Trifa, Luxlite. So if you look at current year's YTD performance so far, you indicated that there's a 50 basis point kind of a margin dip this year and for reasons that you have highlighted. And from next year, you are indicating that it will go back to 12%, which was about last year's levels. But having done this restructuring at Trifa, Luxlite, we would have expected some cost benefits to flow through incrementally. Is that understanding correct? And if so, what kind of a...
It's a very competitive business, Nikhil (sic) [ Rakesh ]. Ultimately, I think -- sorry, Rakesh. So the business -- the automotive business is very competitive. I mean, there may be some -- there is some saving by doing it certainly. We have only one CEO. We have only one warehouse. We have less number of people. The costs have come down. We don't want to say anything about that translating into our margins at the moment. We would like to wait and watch whether we will keep that margin or pass on to get larger business. These are all multiple debates on a strategic basis we'll be taking. So to say that this will improve the margin staying everything -- every other parameters remain same? The answer is yes. But other parameters in terms of the market competition, wanting to get newer businesses, we'll also change the dynamic, which can again bring the margins to where it is. So we are not really projecting any different margin for the coming years because of that.
Understood. And sir, my final question was again on Phoenix and on a longer-term basis given that you are hinting that LED penetration will increase gradually. And with LED becoming more and more competitive, that should incrementally put pressure again on Phoenix, again, pricing and hence, margins. So on a longer run basis, I mean, is the understanding correct that margins might remain under pressure? Or you are confident that even on a longer run basis, you can maintain your margins at Phoenix?
See, again, you were talking about 30% of our business where there is a LED penetration. You're not talking about a 20% business. That is huge. And we are nowhere there in the global market. So that's where we think we have the advantage. Secondly, this 30% is entirely Indian business -- Indian OEM business. And as I said, we have started getting some breakthrough to start supplying to OEM outside of India. So this is all the positive points in terms of how we look at Phoenix plants. In fact, our ability to manage the business, despite these threats of LED penetration, I think the team has done an incredible job to manage this. And we are the most competitive guys today in the marketplace. So all I'm saying is that despite the highly competitive marketplace, our ability to maintain a double-digit margin in this business, which nobody in automotive, halogen lighting business has anywhere in the world, I think itself is very creditable. Now whether it will be 12%, 11% or in 3, 5 years' time? I don't know. 10%? I don't know. I mean, it all depends upon our strategy of last man standing. And if there are more disasters of some of our people not being in the market because of the financial crisis, it's good for us that it will give us advantage. So this is an evolving dynamic market. It's very difficult to comment on it. All we are saying that we have got a clear thinking that at the moment we are on a decent, solid wicket. Whether the margins will go up or down by a couple of basis points -- I mean a couple of percentage points is something we'll work for higher, but markets will determine that.
Thank you. As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Yes. First of all, thank you all for joining this call. I appreciate your continued interest in Suprajit. It has been a most -- the last comment that I would make is that in our 35, 37 years of existence in the industry, the downturn that we are seeing is the most severe that I have seen. It's much worse than whatever 2013 or 2007, '08, '09 or even earlier than that. So we never had a double-digit degrowth in industry. I think our team has done a very creditable performance across divisions to manage this significant downtrend. I think that shows the strength of our team. And I'm confident that once the tide turns, which it will, it's a question of maybe a couple of quarters, I think we will get lot more interesting things to talk about. Right now, it's a bit of a gloom, but we still hope that in 2 quarters things will change. Thank you very much.
Thank you. On behalf of Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.
Thank you very much.
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