TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) Earnings Call Transcript

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to TTM Technologies Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, February 8, 2023. I would now like to hand the call over to Sameer Desai, TTM's Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations to review TTM's disclosure statement. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, Sheri. Before we get started, I would like to remind everyone that today's call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements related to TTM's future business outlook. Actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements, due to one or more risks and uncertainties, including the factors explained in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking statements are based on management's expectations and assumptions as of the date of this presentation. TTM does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any of these statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or other circumstances, except as required by law. Please refer to the disclosures regarding the risks that may affect TTM, which may be found in reports on Form 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, the registration statement on Form S4 and the company's other SEC filings. We will also discuss in this call certain non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted EBITDA. Such measures should be not be considered as a substitute for the measures prepared and presented in accordance with GAAP. We direct you to the reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures included in the company's press release which was filed with the SEC and is available on TTM's website at www.ttm.com. We have also posted on our website a slide deck that we'll refer to during our call. I will now turn the call over to Tom Edman, TTM's Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, Tom.

Thank you, Sameer. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and fiscal year 2022 conference call. I'll begin with a review of our business highlights from the quarter and a discussion of our fourth quarter results, followed by a summary of our business strategy. Todd Schull, our CFO, will follow with an overview of our Q4 2022 financial performance and our Q1 2023 guidance. We will then open the call to your questions. The quarter's highlights are also shown on Slide 3 of the investor presentation posted on TTM's website. In the fourth quarter of 2022, TTM delivered solid results in a difficult business environment. While revenue softened, non-GAAP EPS was above the midpoint of guidance, despite a challenging supply chain and the labor environment and the continued impact that COVID-19 is having on our business. Demand in our aerospace and defense market remained strong with record bookings and backlog, offset by weaker demand and bookings in our commercial end markets. We also saw improvement in our profit margins year-on-year in Q4. I am proud of our employees for delivering solid results this quarter in a tough environment. As we look into Q1, production inefficiencies in our Asia-Pacific facilities due to Chinese New Year, inventory adjustments and weaker demand from some of our commercial end markets are causing revenue and margin declines. But we will continue to see strong demand in our A&D market, which now represents 40% of our revenues. For the full year 2022, excluding the acquisition of Telephonics, TTM grew revenue 5.4% with improved year-on-year profitability, despite the challenges I previously mentioned. Full year cash flow from operations was $272.9 million, enabling us to purchase Telephonics and strengthen our balance sheet, while returning capital to shareholders. In addition, we repaid $50 million of our Term Loan B on January 3, 2023. I am proud of what our employees have accomplished in the face of these challenges despite one of the most difficult manufacturing environments that we've ever experienced. I would now like to provide a strategic update. TTM is on a journey to transform our business to be less cyclical and more differentiated. Over the past several years, TTM is consistently emphasized that a key part of our strategy is to add value to the product solutions that we deliver to our customers, particularly in the aerospace and defense market. In 2018, we acquired Anaren, which broadened TTM's product portfolio into highly engineered RF components and subassemblies, as well as adding critical RF engineering capability and resources. In 2022, we acquired Telephonics, which builds on Anaren and TTM's customer driven culture and disciplined approach to engineering and manufacturing. The addition of Telephonics expands TTM's aerospace and defense product offering vertically into higher level engineered system solutions and horizontally into the surveillance and communications markets, while strengthening our position in radar systems. As a result of these strategic moves, over 50% of A&D revenues are from engineered and integrated electronic products, with PCBs being less than 50% of the overall contribution. An example of how this strategy is strengthening our business is our recent announcement of the multi-year agreement with Raytheon Technologies for the SPY-6 family of radars. This is an agreement to provide radio frequency assemblies, electronic hardware and Printed Circuit Boards for the SPY-6 family of AESA radars. The agreement has the potential to reach $500 million over 5 years. The SPY-6 radar will be on 40 ships of 7 different classes by 2030. TTM designs and manufactures the beam-forming network along with PCBs and specialized assemblies for these radars. This type of multi-year commitment for supply allows TTM to increase value to our end customer. Another important element of our differentiation strategy is the current construction of a new state-of-the art highly automated PCB manufacturing facility in Penang, Malaysia. The decision to build this new factory is a direct response to our customers' increasing concerns about supply chain resiliency and regional diversification and, in particular, the need for advanced multilayer PCB sourcing options in locations outside of China. The new facility in Malaysia will assist customers in our commercial markets, such as networking, data center computing and medical industrial and instrumentation. We made great progress on the Malaysian facility this past quarter, as we completed the pilings required for the building, laid the majority of the foundation, completed the power substation and the roof. We also received multiple deposits from customers with whom we have signed long-term agreements, which provide a business base for over 70% of the planned capacity in this new building. Finally, I'd like to discuss today's announcement regarding the consolidation of our manufacturing footprint. After the market closed today, we issued a press release announcing that we plan to close 3 small manufacturing facilities in order to improve total plant utilization, operational performance, customer focus and profitability. PCB manufacturing operations in Anaheim and Santa Clara, California and Hong Kong will be closed and consolidated into TTM's remaining facilities. The plant closures are expected to improve both facility and talent utilization across our footprint, resulting in improved profitability. TTM is offering customers of the affected PCB plants continued support at our remaining manufacturing sites. We plan to close the Hong Kong facility by the end of our second quarter, and the 2 North America facilities by the end of the year, in order to allow for necessary customer approvals at other facilities. We expect the actions we are announcing today will allow us to better serve our customers, with more focused operations as well as a more efficient cost structure. We will be working with our employees to transfer them into other facilities and, where that is not possible, to treat all of these employees with the respect that they are due for their dedication to TTM. Todd will later discuss the financial impact. Now I'd like to review our end markets, which are referenced on Page 4 and Page 5 of the earnings presentation on our website. The aerospace and defense end-market represented 40% of total fourth quarter sales compared to 30% of Q4 2021 sales and 38% of sales in Q3 2022. The majority of the year-on-year growth was due to the inclusion of Telephonics. Excluding that impact, our Q4 A&D revenues grew 3.4% year-on-year organically. We continue to experience some positive defense climate with our A&D program backlog at $1.36 billion, including Telephonics. Excluding Telephonics, program backlog was $1 billion compared to $768 million a year ago. This solid backlog was driven by a second quarter of record bookings of $464 million, including Telephonics. The solid demand in the defense market is a result of a positive tailwind in defense budgets, our strong strategic program alignment and key bookings for ongoing franchise programs. During the quarter, we saw significant bookings for key programs, including the SPY-6 radar and MH-60R program. We expect sales in Q1 from this end market to represent about 43% of our total sales. For the full year, aerospace and defense revenues grew 1.2%, excluding Telephonics. Our revenue growth was limited by labor, supply chain and production challenges. In the US, we are encouraged by the continued strong support for National Security, including overwhelming bipartisan support for a 10% spending increase in the fiscal year 2023 defense budget that was passed in December. In 2023, we expect end market growth to be above market projections of 3% to 5%, driven by the defense side of our business. We also recently announced the pending confirmation by the Defense Counter Intelligence and Security Agency or DCSA, the TTM Board of Directors have adopted a Special Board Resolution or SBR, replacing the Special Security Agreement, or SSA, that the company had entered into with DCSA in 2010. The replacement of the SSA with the SBR, is a result of the significantly reduced foreign ownership of TTM. The company plans to maintain much of the robust infrastructure developed during the adoption of and compliance with the SSA to continue to serve our customers and to maintain our focus on the National Security of United States, in our aerospace and defense sector, as one of the top 40 U.S.-based defense companies. The medical industrial instrumentation end market contributed 17% of our total sales in the fourth quarter compared to 19% in the year ago quarter and 19% in the third quarter of 2022. A number of our customers have been reducing inventory, as well as quick turn business. In addition, the instrumentation segment is weighted toward automated test equipment for the semiconductor capital equipment market, which is seeing weaker demand. For the first quarter, we expect MI&I to be 18% of revenues. For the full year, MI&I grew 16.7%, following a 11.5% growth in 2021 and 12.4% growth in 2020, well above industry forecast 3 years in a row, as we took advantage of the mega trends and faster growing sub-segments of this end market. In 2023, we expect growth to be below the 2% to 4% industry forecasts, as these segments see moderated demand following the extraordinary strength of the past 3 years. Automotive sales represented 16% of total sales during the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to 19% in the year ago quarter and 15% during the third quarter of 2022. We saw stable trends sequentially for automotive PCBs despite the combined impact of supply chain and demand disruptions caused by COVID, the Ukraine-Russia conflict and semiconductor shortages that have been impacting automotive OEM production. We expect our automotive business to contribute 17% of total sales in Q1, a slight decline from Q4, resulting from a reduced number of working days in Q1 due to Chinese New Year. For the full year, automotive increased 4.2%. In 2022, advanced technology was 31% of our automotive end market compared to 24% in 2021 due to strong growth in our HDI and radar product areas. In 2022, we won new designs with the lifetime value of $530 million with a record $279 million in wins in the fourth quarter. This compares to $532 million in 2021. Designs that we're winning this year will contribute to revenues in future years. We expect this market in 2023 to be below longer-term forecast of 6% to 8% after the strong post-COVID recovery. Sales in the data center computing end-market represented 14% of total sales in the fourth quarter compared to 15% in Q4 of 2021 and 14% in the third quarter of 2022. We expect revenues in this end market to represent approximately 12% of first quarter sales due to a slowdown in the data center market coupled with ongoing weakness in the semiconductor market. For the full year, datacenter computing grew 16.7%, as we saw continued solid growth across our datacenter customers, following 25% growth in 2021 and 9.1% growth in 2020. In 2023, we expect to be below the forecasted end market growth of 9% to 12%, driven primarily by inventory digestion in the datacenter market. In regards to our networking and communications end market, we have renamed it networking given the focus on networking customers. Networking accounted for 13% of revenue during the fourth quarter of 2022. This compares to 16% in the fourth quarter of 2021 and 14% of revenue in the third quarter of 2022. In Q1, we expect this end market to be 10% of revenue, as customers manage their inventory levels and some customers see weak demand. For the full year, networking declined 4.4%, with declines in Telecom customers, partially offset by growth in networking customers. We expect this market to be below the longer-term forecast of 3% to 6% growth in 2023, due to the anticipated soft start to the year. Next I'll cover some details from the fourth quarter. This information is also available on Page 5 of our earnings presentation. During the quarter, our advanced technology and engineered products business, which includes HDI, rigid flex, RF subsystems and components and engineered systems, accounted for approximately 39% of our revenue. This compares to approximately 31% in the year-ago quarter and 41% in Q3. We are continuing to pursue new business opportunities and increase customer design engagement activities that will leverage our advanced technology and engineered products capabilities in new programs and new markets. PCB capacity utilization in Asia Pacific was 75% in Q4 compared to 88% in the year ago quarter and 78% in Q3. Our overall PCB capacity utilization in North America was 40% in Q4 compared to 50% in the year-ago quarter and 45% in Q3. The lower rate in Asia-Pacific was caused by a decline in production volumes, while the lower year-over-year rate in North America was due to additional plating capacity added earlier in the year and direct labor shortages in certain regions. Our top 5 customers contributed 37% of total sales in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to 33% in the third quarter of 2022. We had one customer over 10% in the quarter. At the end of Q4, our 90-day backlog, not including Telephonics, which is subject to cancellations, was $546.7 million compared to $615 million at the end of the fourth quarter of last year. Including Telephonics, our backlog at year end was $603.1 million. Our book-to-bill ratio including Telephonics was 1.05 for the 3 months ended January 2, reflecting a stronger aerospace and defense book-to-bill, offset by a weaker commercial book-to-bill. Our A&D bookings also ship over a longer period of time compared to our commercial bookings. As we look into Q1, we are seeing our commercial markets soften. As a result, we are taking extraordinary actions, including consolidating our facilities, as I already explained, setting down for the full Chinese New Year holiday season, freezing new hires, except the special approvals, reducing discretionary spending and putting travel restrictions in place. We also continue to focus on managing supply chain bottlenecks, particularly in our A&D business, which has limited our ability to deliver on several key A&D programs and will constrain revenue in the first half of the year. I am confident that with the effort of our employees, we will be able to overcome these challenges as we work our way through 2023. In the meantime, I wish to thank our employees for continuing to contribute to TTM and our critical mission of inspiring innovation for our customers. Now Todd will review our financial performance for the fourth quarter. Todd?

Thanks, Tom and good afternoon, everyone. I will be reviewing our financial results for the fourth quarter that were included in the press release distributed today as well as on Slide 7 of our earnings presentation that is posted on our website. For the fourth quarter, net sales were $617.2 million compared to $598.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. The year-over-year increase in revenue was due to the inclusion of Telephonics as well as organic growth in our aerospace and defense end market, partially offset by declines in our commercial markets. For the full year, revenues grew 5.4% excluding Telephonics, driven by our medical industrial and instrumentation, data center computing, automotive and A&D end markets. For all of 2022, revenue was $2.5 billion. This compares to $2.2 billion in 2021. GAAP operating income for the fourth quarter of 2022 was $97.6 million and includes a gain of $51.8 million in December 2022 from the sale of the property occupied by our former Shanghai EMS entity. This compares to $33.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. On a GAAP basis, net income in the fourth quarter of 2022 was $6 million or $0.6 per diluted share. Our fourth quarter 2022 results include a tax reserve of $51.7 million to establish a valuation allowance for certain U.S. deferred tax items and $14.7 million associated with the gain on the sale of the property noted earlier. This compares to GAAP net income of $8.4 million or $0.08 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of last year. The remainder of my comments will focus on our non-GAAP financial performance. Our non-GAAP performance excludes M&A related costs, restructuring costs, certain non-cash expense items such as amortization of intangibles and stock compensation, gains on the sale of property and other unusual or infrequent items, such as the tax valuation reserve I mentioned earlier. We present non-GAAP financial information to enable investors to see the company through the eyes of management and to facilitate comparisons with expectations in prior periods. Gross margin in the fourth quarter was 19.8% and compares to 16.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021. The year-on-year increase was due to the addition of Telephonics, better products mix, favorable foreign exchange and lower material costs, partially offset by higher year-on-year labor costs, particularly in North America as we raise wages this year to be more competitive and lower revenue in our commercial markets. Selling and marketing expense was $18.8 million in the fourth quarter or 3% of net sales compared to $15.6 million or 2.6% of net sales a year ago. Fourth quarter G&A expense was $37.4 million or 6.1% of net sales compared to $30.4 million or 5.1% of net sales in the same quarter a year ago. The inclusion of Telephonics added 2.5 and $4.1 million in sales and marketing and G&A, respectively. In the fourth quarter R&D expense was $6.4 million or 1% of revenues compared to $4.8 million or 0.8% in the year-old quarter. $1.5 million of the increase was due to the inclusion of Telephonics. Our operating margin in Q4 was 9.7%, a solid result given the macro challenges we've been facing. This compares to 8.2% in the same quarter last year. For the full year, 2022 operating margin was 9.4% compared to 8.4% in 2021. Interest expense was $12 million in the fourth quarter compared to $11.2 million in the same quarter last year. During the quarter, there was a negative $3.2 million foreign exchange impact below the operating line. Government incentives and interest income decreases to $1.9 million or a $0.02 negative impact to our EPS. This compares to a loss of $1.1 million or $0.01 impact on EPS in Q4 last year. Our effective tax rate was 6.5% in the fourth quarter, resulting in tax expense of $2.9 million. This compares to a rate of 1.6% or tax expense of $0.6 million in the prior year. For the full year, our effective tax rate was 13.1%. Fourth quarter net income was $42.7 million or $0.41 per diluted share. This compares to fourth quarter 2021 net income of $36.2 million or $0.34 per diluted share. For the full year, net income was $181.2 million or $1.74 per diluted share compared to $138 million or $1.28 per diluted share in 2021. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $81.6 million or 13.2% of revenue compared with fourth quarter 2021 adjusted EBITDA of $70.4 million or 11.8% of revenue. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was $343.1 million or 13.8% of revenue. Depreciation for the quarter was $24 million. Net capital spending for the quarter was $20.8 million. Cash flow from operations was very strong at $77.6 million or 12.6% of revenue, exceeding our target of 10%. Free cash flow was also very good at $56.8 million or 9.2% of revenue. For the full year, cash flow from operations was $272.9 million or 10.9% of revenue. Free cash flow for the full year was $176 million or 7.1% of revenue. Cash-and-cash equivalents at the end of the fourth quarter of 2022 were $402.7 million and our net debt divided by last 12 months EBITDA was 1.5x, at the bottom of our targeted range of 1.5x to 2x. Following the end of the fiscal year, we repaid $50 million of our Term Loan B. Before I discuss first quarter guidance, I'd like to discuss the financial impact of today's facilities consolidation announcements. The company expects to record between 22 and $28 million in separation, asset impairment and disposal costs related to this restructuring, primarily between now and the end of 2023. Approximately 80% of these costs are expected to be in the form of cash expenditures and the rest in the form of non-cash charges. Today's actions are expected to yield an annual operating profit increase of approximately $22 million to $27 million, after the facilities are closed and the transferred business is fully assimilated within our remaining footprint. Now I'd like to turn to guidance for the first quarter. As Tom mentioned earlier, we expect a sequential decline in revenues due to weaker booking trends in our commercial end markets, resulting from inventory adjustments, weak end market demand and the Chinese New Year holiday. We expect a sequential decline in margins due to lower revenues, the inefficiencies associated with the Chinese New Year holiday, higher material costs and unfavorable mix. Given these factors, we project total revenue for the first quarter of 2023 to be in the range of $550 million to $590 million, a non-GAAP earnings to be in the range of $0.16 to $0.22 per diluted share. The EPS forecast is based on a diluted share count of approximately 104.6 million shares, which includes dilutive securities such as options and RSUs. We expect that SG&A expense will be about 9.5% of revenue in the first quarter and R&D will be about 1.2% of revenue. We expect interest expense to total approximately $11.9 million. Finally, we estimate our effective tax rate to be between 13% and 17%. To assist you in developing your financial models, we offer the following additional information. During the first quarter, we expect to record amortization of intangibles of about $11.7 million, stock-based comp expense of about $5.9 million, non-cash interest expense of approximately $0.7 million and we estimate appreciation expense will be approximately $24.5 million. Additionally, as you're building your financial models for 2023, I'd like to call your attention to 3 items. First, interest rates have risen and may rise further. In 2022, our average borrowing rate on our term loan, which is a variable rate debt was 1.7% plus a margin of 250 basis points. Today, we are already incurring a rate of 4.6% plus our margin. Second, in 2022, we realized favorable foreign exchange below the operating line of $12.7 million. We cannot predict how the Chinese-U.S. exchange ratio will move into 2023. Consequently, we do not forecast this item. And third, we are investing in a new plant in Penang, Malaysia. We expect to start production in the second half of the year and begin ramping towards full volume production. During the 2023 startup phase, we expect to incur a negative impact to our margins of between 30 and 50 basis points. We estimate that approximately 75% of that impact will be weighted towards the second half of 2023. Finally, I'd like to announce that we'll be participating in the Cowen Aerospace Defense and Industrials Conference on February 16, the JPMorgan High Yield and Leveraged Finance conference on March 7 and the JPMorgan Industrials Conference on March 16. That concludes our prepared remarks and now we'd like to open the line for questions. Sheri?

[Operator Instructions] And today's first question will come from the line of James Ricchiuti with Needham and Co.

So maybe putting aside the aerospace and defense, where you have pretty good line of sight, which is the commercial markets? As you look at it today, do you believe perhaps has the most uncertainty attached to them. I mean, you're clearly seeing weakness in several of them?

Yes, I think 2 areas, Jim, in terms of areas of weakness. I think we've seen and we saw during the course of the quarter, a pronounced weakness in data center. And so that affects our computing and datacenter computing end market which, 2/3s of that is really data centers and the third is semiconductor, both now really showing signs of weakness. In the case of data center, a lot of discussion around inventory control and digestion. But I think market that certainly in the first half I think, will continue to be weak. Networking is the second similar in nature, right? I think the networking by and large, lot of inventory control, discussion around softening demand environment, spending environment and a lot of discussion around the first half of the year. Telecom really everyone holding their breath for India investment, which is coming, but it's coming slowly. And frankly, that's a pretty small part of that networking end market for us. So those are the 2 markets side. From a challenging standpoint, I'd say are out there with softening demand. And just to finish the discussion MII, medical industrial instrumentation, it's really the instrumentation side that is showing the pronounced weakness, medical and industrial, relatively better though a lot of discussion around inventory control, but I think that's shorter term in nature. Automotive continuing to really hold up pretty well. We are taking the Chinese New Year time off in our facilities there, and so our revenues would be down in Q1. But if you do the quick calculation and you add back that 1.5 week to 2-weeks of production that we lose, you'd be right back on top of Q4's numbers on automotive, so holding up pretty well.

Got it. And then follow-up question I have is that you may have made some reference to this in the opening remarks. But does the announcement today with respect to the manufacturing footprint, was that in anyway change the investment plans or timing for Malaysia?

No, absolutely not. That really for us and we look at our footprint regularly. These smaller facilities in Hong Kong and the 2 facilities in California, really been struggling in terms of profitability and their plant charter. And that's been a struggle and as we look into our forecast, they also don't look much better for the long term. So difficult actions to take, but necessary and we will continue the investment in Malaysia. Our customer base is counting on this. It's a critical investment for TTM to make in terms of supply chain resiliency, automated high layer count, efficient production, volume production capability. So we're moving proceeding there as scheduled and holding to our schedule at this point.

Our next question will come from the line of Mike Crawford with B. Riley Securities.

I heard from your remarks that you basically have 70% of your capacity, generally sold with customers for the Malaysia plant this opening. Is that a case where you're hoping to run that facility at, what, 80% plus utilization or is that going to be the same, maybe type of metrics that you have for your China facilities or is it going to be slightly different?

So the goal will be to run it north of that. I mean, ideally you'd love to be in between that 80%, 90% utilization rate. But you're absolutely right, Mike, it's very similar in term -- with our China facilities, in terms of volume capabilities and the need to leverage your manufacturing footprint and keep that utilization at a high level. And these will be volume requirements for these customers and obviously we won't hit that about 80% right away. We've got a good ramp that will carry began the end of this year and then carry us through next year to get there. But again, it's a very strong backdrop for us to have those customers lined up and willing to sort of -- with their deposits to help us with, as we invest in this critical capability.

And then my second question switches to ASSO. What is the potential upside for, A, more ships being included onto that program perhaps as a result of the forthcoming budget and budget request we'll see in a few weeks. And secondly for potential forward military sales to hours.

So it's always hard to speak for our customer. I would say that there certainly is upside there. And you're right, there is possibility of foreign military sales as well. We have to stick to their announcement. I think even that is a very strong base for us and we continue to see of course, a number of other radar systems and programs move to AESA that are really allowing us to grow strongly in that market. So not relying solely on that program. But it is a -- it's a program that has potential upside for sure and our focus will be on servicing the customer, making sure that we ramp here successfully through the course of this year for aerospace and defense market and critical to that is that we solve supply chain bottlenecks in that market and that's the big area of focus for us as we ramp. It's great to be -- to have a program backlog as strong as we have. At the beginning of the year, allows our operations to really focus on getting the job done.