Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP) Earnings Call Transcript
January 5, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Good morning. My name is Sylvie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Whitecap Resources Investor Day. [Operator Instructions] And I would like to turn it over to Whitecap's President and CEO, Mr. Grant Fagerheim. You may begin the conference.
Thanks, Sylvie. Good morning, everyone. We are excited to walk through our asset base, the work our technical and support teams have been doing and why we're confident into the future with the opportunities we have in front of us. I am joined today with -- by 6 members of our management team. Thanh Kang, our Senior Vice President and CFO; Joel Armstrong, our Senior Vice President, Production and Operations; Dave Mombourquette, our Senior Vice President, Business Development; and Information Technology; Joey Wong, our Vice President, Unconventional Division; and Chris Bullin, our Vice President, Conventional Division; and Travis Tweit, our Vice President of Operations. Before we begin, a quick reminder that today's discussion includes forward-looking information and all statements are subject to the same forward-looking disclaimer and advisory contained in the Investor Day presentation, which we have posted on our website. So let me start with what we're going to cover today. First, I'll walk through a high-level overview of Whitecap, including how we think about capital allocation, leverage and an overview of our portfolio. From there, we'll move into the assets and what we're excited about to continue developing and improving our -- both our design and execution across our business. Let's put the asset discussion into 2 major parts. Joey Wong will lead the Unconventional section. Chris Bullin will lead the Conventional section, and Travis Tweit will highlight our operational achievements across both divisions. In the Unconventional Section, the focus will be our inventory depth, duration and optionality we have across commodities, including illustrated project scenarios that highlight economics and flexibility. In the Conventional section, the focus will be on asset stability and longevity and maximizing resource capture across our light oil weighted portfolio. We built a proven platform, and we believe these assets can continue delivering strong profitability and value creation for decades to come. And finally, I'll walk through the growth optionality and asset potential we see across our full portfolio over the next several years before wrapping it up and opening the line for questions, both through the webcast and by phone. With that, we'll get into the presentation. At the highest level, our strategy is straightforward. We allocate capital with one purpose to generate strong, durable returns for shareholders. Today, we want to show you how -- why Whitecap stands out not just compared to other energy companies, but also compared to alternative investments more broadly. Our advantage comes down to 4 things: high-quality inventory with both depth and commodity optionality, technical excellence and strong execution, capital discipline to protect and compound shareholder value and a strong balance sheet to manage risk and stay flexible through cycles. First, on inventory. Our depth and optionality gives us confidence in our ability to generate consistent, meaningful returns even through commodity price cycles. But inventory alone is not enough. The profitability of any energy asset depends on how well we drill it, complete it and operate it. That's why we believe our technical and operations teams provide us with a core competitive advantage and they continue to finding ways to improve well performance and reduce costs across all areas of our business. And finally, capital discipline and balance sheet strength are what allow us to manage risk, protect shareholder value, and stay counter cyclical, especially when additional opportunities emerge in the market. Those 4 pillars, inventory, execution, discipline and balance sheet are what drives Whitecap strategy. With that, we'll now get into the presentation. For those of you who may be newer to the Whitecap story, here's who we are today. We are a $14 billion market cap company with $17 billion of enterprise value. We produce about 372,500 BOE per day, making us the seventh largest Canadian oil and natural gas producer. On the natural gas side, we produce 900 million cubic feet a day, which ranks us the fifth largest gas producer in Canada. In 2026, we plan to invest between $2 billion to $2.1 billion in capital at $60 WTI and $3 AECO price, that generates approximately $3.3 billion of funds flow. Our balance sheet remains very strong with $3.3 billion of net debt, which was only 1x debt to funds flow. And we pay a $0.73 per share annual dividend representing a yield of just over 6% to 6.5% at today's share price. Why own Whitecap? Our goal is simple: to deliver meaningful shareholder returns through both per share value growth and consistent return of capital. Our annual target is to provide -- our annual target is to provide a 10% to 15% annual total return to shareholders. And on the next slide, we'll walk through how we plan to do that. These returns are powered by the asset base that we built over the last 16-year period of time. It is long duration, high quality and offers real commodity optionality across both our conventional and unconventional assets. Today, we have 10,500 drilling locations in inventory and 2.3 billion BOE of 2P reserves. That's our foundation for delivering returns sustainably over the longer term. Equally important is our balance sheet. We operate with investment-grade credit. We target leverage of 1x or under, and we run a fully funded model, which gives us flexibility and resilience through the cycles. And finally, scale matters. We invest roughly $2 billion per year in capital and $1.5 billion per year in operating costs. This stability of capital allows us to secure preferred crews, rigs and pricing. As the seventh largest Canadian producer, and the largest landholder in the Alberta Montney and Duvernay, our scale creates efficiency, improves execution, strengthens margins and ultimately improve shareholder returns. Our capital allocation toolkit. Although we begin our journey -- we began our journey in 2009 as a growth-only entity, Whitecap has been running a dividend plus growth model since 2013. And what we've learned is that strong shareholder returns aren't driven by one single mechanism. They come from having a disciplined toolkit and optimizing it through ever-changing price cycles. Our toolkit is built around 4 levers. Investing in the business when the return is available and there, maintaining balance sheet strength, share repurchases and our dividend. We have assembled an outstanding asset base and using the asset base to generate more free cash flow is one of the best ways to create long-term value for shareholders. While the market may not be calling for growth today, our portfolio is positioned to generate high return growth when price returns, and we will remain disciplined about this. Balance sheet strength has been central to Whitecap success. Low leverage gives us the ability to weather downturns. But just as importantly, it allows us to take advantage of opportunities that others can when the time is appropriate. That is how we built much of our Montney and Duvernay position, including funding the XTO acquisition in 2022 with all cash and taking on Veren's higher leverage company in 2025. And since then, we've driven down costs, improved overall execution and increased profitability, all of which have translated into stronger shareholder returns. On share repurchases, we prioritized using this tool when our share price is below intrinsic value and our after-tax cost of debt is lower than the cost of equity. And we like buybacks because they permanently strengthen the capital structure and improve our payout ratio. Finally, our base dividend is foundation, stable and meaningful at $0.73 per share annually. Over time, our plan is to grow the dividend as well. But given where our payout ratio is today, we expect incremental return of capital in the near term to be more weighted towards share buybacks. Counter Cyclical approach. How do we deploy capital across the toolkit, depends primarily on commodity prices and where we are at in the pricing cycle? This slide shows how our priorities shift through different commodity environments. The key point is our ability to be counter cyclical coming from 3 advantages: low leverage and a strong balance sheet, high-quality, long-duration inventory in both light oil and natural gas and a low decline, low-cost structure that generates free cash flow across all points in the cycle. With these attributes, we have the flexibility, which allows us to consistently generate long-term returns. Now I want to be clear. This slide is illustrative. We are not formulaic. At any given time, the right decision depends on the valuation, commodity price direction, operational constraints and market opportunity. But the concept is straightforward. In the lower price environments, as we are in now, there's usually no market call for growth. The priority becomes maintaining base production and returning excess funds flow through share repurchases, especially if shares are trading below intrinsic value. As prices rise towards mid-cycle, we reinitiate growth and balance shareholder returns between buybacks, dividend and balance sheet strength. When prices move above mid-cycle and economic supported, growth goes higher in priority, still within our corporate growth range of 3% to 5% per share and excess funds flow is directed towards strengthening the balance sheet and building dry powder for future opportunities. Again, we won't be rigid with this strategy, but instead adaptive to the prevailing market conditions. This framework helps investors understand how we think about allocating excess free funds flow through the commodity price cycle. With this, I'll pass on to Thanh for a quick discussion on our balance sheet. Thanh?
Yes. Thanks, Grant. We entered 2026 with a very strong balance sheet, low cost of funding and approximately 50% of our net debt at a fixed interest rate. We're comfortable with the current mix, but if rates continue to trend favorably, we could potentially look to add additional fixed rate debt to further enhance stability. In 2026, we plan to use room on our credit facility to address the private placement notes maturing that year. Beyond that, we have 4 issuances of investment-grade notes with maturities spread between 2028 and 2034. Our most recent bond issuance was at 3.76% and our variable cost of debt on the credit facility is around 4%. Overall, our debt costs remain very reasonable and contribute to our low cost structure. You may see quarterly fluctuations in net debt due to the seasonal nature of our capital program. But given our strong balance sheet and the current commodity environment, our focus is on enhancing shareholder returns, particularly through share repurchases rather than aggressively paying down debt today. Over time, as prices increase, we expect to focus to -- we expect the focus to shift towards reducing leverage further and building additional dry powder for future inorganic opportunities. And to maintain flexibility, we will continue targeting 1x debt to funds flow or less. Slide 10 shows the evolution of the business over time. In the earlier years, we were comfortable running higher leverage while we built the company. But over the last several years, especially through acquisitions like NAL, TORC, XTO and most recently, Veren, we've made a deliberate shift towards maintaining leverage at approximately 1x. That discipline is what allowed us to execute the Veren transaction and absorb their higher leverage while still maintaining a strong credit profile. Looking forward, we expect leverage to continue trending down over time as we build free funds flow and maintain disciplined capital allocation. And with that, I'll pass it back to Grant to close out on the introductory slides.
Thanks, Thanh. Asset overview. All of our assets are located within Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, with over 99% of our production and inventory in Alberta and Saskatchewan. We have significant inventory depth with decades of drilling inventory at our current pace. We divide the business into 2 primary groups: First, our unconventional assets Montney and Duvernay. These are high rate, high reserve resource style developments with 4,700 drilling locations in inventory and a significant growth in free cash flow potential. Second, our conventional assets across multiple regions and formations primarily focused on light oil. These assets include long life, low decline production and enhanced oil recovery projects. They generate stable, durable cash flow and provide long-term sustainability for the business. Overall, our commodity mix today is approximately 50% light oil and condensate, 10% liquids and 40% natural gas. In Slide 12, our development progression. Slide 12 shows how we think about development progression across our portfolio of opportunities, along with the maturity of assets within each division. The key point is this. Not all inventory is meant to do the same job at the same time. We deliberately segment assets into 3 categories: appraisal and delineation number one; number two, growth; and number three, stabilized assets. Each category plays a different role in our team's focus on maximizing value as assets move along the progression. Appraisal is about replenishment and long-term sustainability. Growth assets are where we drive our 3% to 5% production per share growth annually and stabilized assets generate significant free cash flow, supporting dividends, buybacks and balance sheet strength. The majority of the makeup of our conventional assets fall into the stabilized category, but that does not mean that they're near end of left. These assets are well understood, remain highly profitable, and we have decades of runway with meaningful upside that we'll talk about later in the presentation. Our conventional assets are balanced across 3 categories, and they contain the asset -- projects that will contribute most to our long-term growth. A great example is Kaybob Duvernay play. It has progressed rapidly through growth stage and is nearing current capacity. Through debottlenecking of our 15-07 complex, we've increased capacity and we're positioned to transition to stabilize strong free cash flow developing asset. And we're especially excited about that, given the inventory enhancement we made through our Winerack development initiatives. Across the remaining growth in appraisal categories, we have inventory across the commodity spectrum, and we'll highlight the optionality and future potential throughout the rest of today's presentation. I'll now pass it off to Joey Wong to walk through our Unconventional division. Joey?
Thanks, Grant. Now we'll transition into the unconventional division, where we see some of the strongest long-term growth and free funds flow potential in our portfolio. There are 3 key takeaways from this section. First is inventory depth. This division holds the largest share of our long-term growth runway. Second is technical improvements. We've made meaningful progress in development planning and execution, and that progress continues to compound. And third, commodity optionality. We have a portfolio that gives us flexibility across light oil and condensate, liquid rich gas and lean gas, and we can scale that activity based on market signals. This slide highlights the scale and quality of our unconventional asset base. We hold approximately 1.5 million acres of Alberta's Montney and Duvernay, and that makes us the largest landholder in both plays. The division produces roughly 245,000 BOEs per day and delivers approximately $900 million of annual free fund flow at $60 WTI and $3 AECO. And importantly, the assets are concentrated, which drives efficiency, repeatability and cost control. That concentration is a key advantage. It improves execution and supports stronger margins. Slide 15 shows our unconventional type curves and the quality of the inventory across the portfolio. We have a high-quality, scalable inventory across the commodity spectrum, and that gives us flexibility and resilience through the cycle. At one end, we have the light oil and condensate growth options where liquids pricing and condensate yields create very strong margins and attractive returns. The oil and condensate window is defined as greater than 250 barrels per million standard cubic feet of natural gas on an IP90 basis. On the other end, we have lean gas assets and these are important because they represent a long-dated growth lever. Lean gas becomes very competitive in stronger gas price environment, and we've positioned those assets so that we can scale efficiently when gas prices justify it. Lean window is defined as less than 50 barrels per million. And in between, we have liquids-rich gas opportunities. These deliver strong rates, strong economics and fast payouts. What we want you to take away from this slide is that our unconventional portfolio isn't tied to one commodity outcome. We can allocate capital to the projects with the best returns at the time and that flexibility is one of the reasons we believe we can deliver durable shareholder returns through the cycle. The other advantage here is that we've been able to improve these type curves through design and execution, which will show later in the section. These are not static assets. Our teams are actively improving performance. Moving into more detail. Let's start with the Duvernay position in Kaybob. The Duvernay is one of the premier unconventional resource plays in North America. And for Whitecap, it's a major value driver because it combines scale, strong well performance and a near-term pathway to significant stabilized free funds flow. We're the largest landholder and operator in the Duvernay with approximately 500,000 acres and about 700 identified locations. Roughly half of that inventory is liquids rich with another 40% weighted to light oil and condensate. With over 500 producing wells, we operate roughly the same number of Duvernay wells as the next 2 operators combined. That scale delivers real advantage, operating efficiencies in the field and equally important, one of the strongest proprietary data sets in the play. It drives better development planning, sharper execution and ultimately, superior economics and returns. Geologically, our Kaybob Duvernay position has some of the most favorable characteristics for development. The reservoir is thick, laterally extensive, overpressured and predominantly liquids rich or condensate prone. Porosity is predictable across the area and while thickness varies across the land base, we adjust our development plans accordingly. Where we see greater thickness, we've moved toward Winerack style development to improve vertical reservoir coverage and reduce interaction between wells. Where thickness is more limited, we widen inter-well spacing and utilize longer frac half length to enhance capital efficiency and maximize value per well. We'll speak to these design choices and the resulting performance in more detail in the coming slides. When we first entered the Duvernay in 2022, we were excited about the runway in front of us, supported by our owned and operated 15-07 gas plant, which at the time was only 50% to 60% utilized. As development progressed and results continued to improve, it became clear that we were approaching the facility's capacity limit, one that would have been reached in 2025 as our development initiatives continue to bear fruit. To create additional runway and enhance economics, our team increased the productive capability of the 15-07 complex through a combination of facility debottlenecking and the construction of a connection to a third-party processing facility. This work increased the productive capability of the complex to over 50,000 BOEs per day, an increase of over 40% from the original productive capability of approximately 36,000 BOEs per day. This additional capacity not only supports our development plans, but it also drives a structural improvement in netbacks with operating costs expected to decline more than 30% as we approach capacity. We expect the final stage of these efforts to come online in early 2026. Following further debottlenecking and expansion on the north side of the asset, the Kaybob Duvernay is expected to reach total processing capacity of approximately 120,000 BOEs per day by the third quarter of this year. Once we achieve that capacity, our intent is to hold production in the 115,000 to 120,000 BOE per day range longer term and transition Kaybob away from the growth phase and into a stabilized at capacity mode, as Grant mentioned earlier. At that stage, Kaybob is expected to generate approximately $650 million to $850 million per year of asset level free cash flow while requiring only 50% to 55% reinvestment to maintain flat production, providing a significant source of sustainable free cash flow to the corporation. This is exactly how we think about asset development, scale the resource, optimize the infrastructure, debottleneck constraints and then transition into a stabilized free funds flow phase where cash flow can then be returned to shareholders. Next, we'll turn to the Montney, which offers one of the deepest sources of long-dated organic growth in our portfolio with development opportunities across the full commodity spectrum from light oil and condensate to liquids-rich and again lean gas. Slide 21 provides an overview of our Alberta Montney position, which, as mentioned at the outset, is the largest by landholdings with approximately 1 million acres. This is a large, high-quality asset base with meaningful existing infrastructure, and it provides several distinct development options with a mix of light oil and condensate, liquids-rich gas and lean opportunities. This is important because it gives us optionality. But we want to be clear, development will remain disciplined. We will scale activity only when returns justify and within our broader corporate capital allocation framework. So the Montney is both an opportunity set and a tool. It gives us a way to respond to commodity price signals while maintaining capital discipline. The Montney is a thick, stacked and highly predictable resource with meaningful commodity diversity, making it increasingly attractive to both investors and operators seeking premium long-dated inventory. We have strong visibility across multiple benches, supported by extensive 3D seismic coverage and a large data set of industry and operated wells, enabling us to extract significant proprietary insights, mirroring the same advantage we've built in the Duvernay. Targeted horizons are shown in blue, while zones currently being delineated are highlighted in green dashed. Many of these horizons, both blue and green dashed remain unbooked, emphasizing the material upside potential still embedded across our land base. Over the next few slides, we're going to walk through some development projects that illustrate the optionality and profitability potential we see across our asset base. These projects are at various stages of technical due diligence and appraisal, but to demonstrate the capability of our teams and the quality of the assets, we'll start with a case study of our most recent development at Musreau, a great proof point for how we create value through execution. When we set out to build the 05-09 facility, we took the time to ensure the facility size and design were properly matched to the inventory. We sanctioned the project with an expected payout of approximately 3 years. Fast forward to today, the facility has come in under expected cost and ahead of schedule, and our development decisions have driven 10% to 20% well outperformance. As a result, realized payout has improved to well under 2 years. Now that the asset is operating in a stabilized state, Musreau is generating approximately $90 million to $115 million per year of asset level free cash flow. And similar to what you saw in the Duvernay, we're reinvesting approximately 50% to 60% to hold production flat. This slide is important because it demonstrates the repeatable playbook, develop the resource, build the infrastructure, lower costs, improve margins and transition into strong free funds flow generation. That's how we position these assets to become durable return engines. Slide 24 is an update on the LATOR Phase 1, our next material growth project anchored by our Phase I facility at 04-13. Phase 1 is a 35,000 to 40,000 BOE per day facility sanctioned in 2024. We were fully permitted ahead of schedule, which enabled us to accelerate our commissioning time line. Construction is well underway, approximately 50% complete on a spend basis, and we're targeting commissioning in Q4 of 2026. We have approached LATOR with a disciplined and methodical development strategy focused on optimizing outcomes while managing key risks. Derisking has been central to our work, and we've executed that in 2 areas: the facility and the assets. First, the facility. The design leverages 2 similar facilities we've built and operate today in Kaybob and the one I just mentioned in Musreau, both of which were commissioned successfully and have delivered strong operating performance. LATOR incorporates design enhancements informed by that operating history with a focus on proactive debottlenecking, improved operability and long-term efficiency. The facility has also been engineered around the expected product stream, which brings me to the second point, which is the asset. After several years of study and delineation, we have a strong understanding of the subsurface, particularly across areas that will support near-term drilling. We benefit from a meaningful legacy data set, including roughly 2 dozen horizontal wells plus 7 Whitecap horizontal drills and a vertical core. We also hold 3D seismic coverage over nearly 100% of the land and have built robust geological, geomechanical and reservoir models to forecast reservoir and frac behavior. Our existing wells have met or exceeded expectations and the majority of our technical work, including the core data, has been confirmatory or to the positive. Despite these positive data points, we have maintained our expectations to ensure we remain disciplined and avoid overstating asset capability ahead of full-scale development. This is a clear example of how we pursue growth. Methodically, rigorously and with risk-adjusted execution, it will continue to -- and it will continue to define our approach as we progress through subsequent development phases. Over the next 3 slides, we're going to walk you through illustrative characteristics for 3 project types we see as core to long-term organic growth in our unconventional portfolio. Everything shown here assumes no improvement in capital efficiency. So the outcomes reflect today's design and execution baseline, even though we have a strong track record of continuous improvement. Across the 3 project types, we're outlining over 365,000 BOEs per day of productive capacity supported by identified inventory within the 4,700 unconventional locations discussed earlier. This slide focuses on the liquids portion of the portfolio, and we're using LATOR Phase 1 as the example given it's already under construction. The top left is net operating income per unit of capital invested. The 1.0 line would be payout. Under base pricing, which is $60 WTI and $3 AECO, payout occurs in roughly 9 to 12 months. The 2 sensitivity cases either an increase in AECO of $1 or $10 in WTI, those increased net operating income by roughly 10%, highlighting strong leverage to commodity pricing improvement. On the right, we show the transition from the build phase into stabilized production. We expect LATOR to become a cash contributor by 2028, with run rate free cash flow in the range of $170 million to $200 million and reinvestment ratio of 50% to 55%. It takes roughly 50 to 55 wells to reach facility capacity. And once there, we can hold volumes flat with only a couple of pads per year. With 300 to 450 wells identified feeding the area, we have decades of inventory to work with. We've also built in design optionality for a Phase 2 expansion to 85,000 BOEs per day should market conditions warrant. Lastly, we know Kakwa also has a 40,000 BOE per day future growth project, which is a very compelling growth asset under the right conditions. It has extensive industry data, a thick reservoir with up to 3 benches of development and our performance across those benches has exceeded expectations. Today, it is infrastructure constrained and has sour gas considerations, but with access to centralized sour capable processing, it would compete for capital at the appropriate time. Next, we'll turn to our light oil and condensate weighted growth options, starting with Gold Creek. This project would add approximately 25,000 BOEs per day of incremental productive capacity in the Gold Creek area. Again, the base case type curve is shown in blue. And on a normalized basis, the returns are highly comparable to the liquids rich project we just discussed on the last slide, within 2% to 3%. In other words, capital deployed into these projects is effectively equivalent from a return perspective. The key differentiator is commodity leverage. On the light oil-weighted side, returns demonstrate greater upside sensitivity to oil prices, which is roughly a 15% improvement in normalized returns compared to just over 5% uplift from higher gas pricing. We expect run rate free cash flow in the range of $190 million to $230 million per year, which is similar to LATOR Phase 1 despite being -- despite lower BOE volumes driven by stronger netbacks. Importantly, our technical confidence in Gold Creek has materially improved since adding it through the Veren transaction, and we're excited about the development runway ahead. The takeaway here is straightforward across our light oil and condensate weighted growth options we see multiple pathways to material free cash flow generation with returns that are fully competitive with our liquids-rich gas growth opportunities. Lastly, we'll turn to our lean gas growth options concentrated in Resthaven, a core source of long-dated portfolio optionality. Resthaven is a large, contiguous land position of approximately 350,000 acres with over 1,000 identified drilling locations. To put that in context, Montney development in the Kakwa strike, which has seen significant industry development for many years, spans roughly 200,000 acres. We operate approximately 2 dozen horizontal wells across this land base, supported by additional industry offsets and targeted 3D seismic. That data set, both proprietary and public has enabled the rapid technical progression similar to the learning curve we have achieved at LATOR. Our work indicates a meaningful portion of the asset exhibits high-pressure, prolific lean gas behavior with strong initial gas deliverability and associated condensate. As shown in the type curve, base case payout is approximately 1.3 years at $3 per GJ AECO and the returns are most sensitive to gas pricing. Importantly, at higher AECO pricing within the range shown on the slide, Resthaven competes directly with our liquids-rich and condensate weighted growth option on a normalized basis. From a development standpoint, scaling Resthaven will ultimately require material gas processing capacity. However, we're not forcing that decision today. Instead, our focus is on disciplined appraisal-driven execution. In 2026, we plan to drill 2 delineation wells to validate the translation of legacy results into modern development designs. With success, we'll expand appraisal across additional portions of the land base before advancing a phased facility concept. An initial development phase, we target approximately 40,000 BOEs per day of productive capability supported by 200 million to 250 million a day of gas handling and associated condensate volumes. At higher gas prices, this phase would generate meaningful free cash flow while preserving significant upside for future expansion. And again, as mentioned at the outset, the core message here is optionality. Resthaven is long-dated, scalable and supported by identified inventory that could ultimately enable growth towards 200,000 BOEs per day, and we're positioning the assets so it's ready when market conditions warrant. The next few slides focused on how we design and execute our capital programs. We expect to continually improve capital efficiencies across the portfolio, and that's driven by what we call our unconventional development workflow, a collaborative process that has delivered exceptional results across our unconventional plays and will continue to do so going forward. The upside from this workflow is what drives improvement across the metrics shown on the prior slides. Now to walk through the figure. First is subsurface evaluation. We integrate geological, geomechanical and multiphase reservoir models to understand the rock, fluids and expected stimulation and production response. Next is the development plan. That work drives optimized decisions on well spacing, bench selection and completion design balancing value and risk. Following that, economic evaluation. We evaluate risk-adjusted returns across commodity scenarios using engineering analyses and in-house machine learning tools to identify patterns and optimization opportunities across large data sets. Lastly, execution and iteration. We execute consistently and efficiently through tight cross-functional coordination and we iterate quickly as new data is gathered. The key point is that the workflow is continuous. Every new data set feeds back into the system, refining designs, improving performance and upgrading inventory over time. As you'll see next, the process has already delivered measurable gains, which are embedded in our 2026 capital efficiencies and guidance. As mentioned, the next few slides show how that workflow translates into real measurable improvements. This slide focuses specifically on design optimization, where the architecture of the development plan sets us up for optimal returns before we commence operations on the land. I'll walk through 3 examples. First, Montney upspacing at Kakwa. Based on early well results and offset operator data, we saw indications that with modest changes to completion design, we could reduce well density without sacrificing recovery. We tested that hypothesis through 2 pilot pads moving from 8 wells per spacing unit down to 6. The results confirmed our expectations. On an acreage basis, recovery was effectively unchanged, but with materially less capital deployed, a clear improvement in capital efficiency and returns. Next, we're profiling the benefits of benching and drawdown management at Musreau. In this area, we observed similarities to Kakwa and believe that the development plan could be further optimized on our lands by moving to a 2 bench development design and importantly, by controlling drawdown, the pace at which we allow the reservoir to produce into our facilities. With both design features in place, we saw a shallower decline in condensate to gas ratio relative to offset. The result is what you see in the middle graph, and improvement in our condensate production profile. While our wells were below offset wells on initial rates during the first 5 to 6 months, the disciplined development plan and controlled drawdown have allowed us to outperform later in life. At this stage, we are comfortable underwriting a 20% improvement in condensate EUR. Importantly, this is fully backstopped by an economic analysis to ensure we are improving returns. In this case, payout was effectively equivalent as what we gave up early with gain back in the subsequent months. The third example of design optimization is in the Duvernay, where we've applied a similar concept to the Musreau benching design, but more modestly and within the same bench to what we refer to as a Winerack design. With only approximately 50 meters or just under 50 feet of vertical offset, we've achieved better vertical coverage in the reservoir and reduced well-to-well interaction, both between wells on the pad and to offsetting wells. The cross pads where we have sufficient production history, we've observed a 10% to 20% improvement in well performance and are now evaluating further optimization opportunities including the potential to down space within our existing inventory set to better capture acreage value. The key takeaway is that these are not just the theoretical games. They're observed, repeatable and embedded in our forward plans, as I mentioned. This is importantly, they reflect our disciplined approach to improving returns without introducing corporate -- material corporate level risk. With that, I'll turn it over to Travis Tweit, Vice President of Operations, to speak to the execution improvements we've realized across these programs.
Thanks, Joey. The next few slides highlight examples of the improvements we've delivered in drilling and completions across the Duvernay and Montney and importantly, how repeatable these results are when we run consistent programs. I'll also share a recent example of base production optimization and show how the internal workflows Joey discussed, translate into best in class completion design and execution. Starting with drilling. As you can see, we made some measurable progress across several core areas. At Musreau, we've had a continuous program since 2023 using the same drilling rig and our overall rate of penetration has improved by 30% over that time. By leveraging the data available from neighboring wells, we were able to achieve today's ROP after only 20 wells drilled, a level that offset operators requiring closer to 150 to reach. We're now taking those same learnings from Musreau and applying them directly to LATOR as development begins there. The middle chart shows drilling performance at Gold Creek, where we realized an average 8% improvement in ROP in the back half of '25. This is an area that has seen steady improvements from legacy operators, which has helped to refine our drilling designs and improve execution performance. Gold Creek is a really good example of how strong performance becomes repeatable once an area is in development mode, where recent gains tend to be more incremental, same high-performing rig and services, consistent crews and continued reductions in flat time driven by our drilling teams. The chart on the right highlights performance in the Kaybob Duvernay achieved primarily through adopting best practices from both legacy Whitecap and Veren operations. These improvements include minor adjustments to drilling practices and small changes to BHA design, resulting in improved tool reliability and fewer trips in the lateral. Combined with using fit-for-purpose rigs and maintaining consistent services, these changes have delivered a 13% improvement in ROP as shown here. And while we're pleased with the progress we've made, we're still very much on a path of continuous improvement, focusing on every marginal gain through reducing flat time, leveraging technology and continuing to refine our processes. I'll now switch to completions. With completions representing nearly 50% of our unconventional spend, we maintain an intense focus on both efficiency and effectiveness, meaning how quickly we execute and how well the fracs perform. I'll speak to effectiveness on the next slide. This slide focuses on efficiency, measured as tonnes of proppant pumped per day. As you can see, performance has improved substantially in the back half of 2025. Starting on the left with Musreau, this has historically been a plug-and-perf area for Whitecap. Over the past 2 years, we've continued to refine workflows and execution discipline, resulting in a 14% improvement in efficiency to an average of around 3,600 tons per day. The middle chart shows Gold Creek, which has primarily been a single-point entry completion design. Since mid-2025, we've made several minor modifications that have had significant impacts, including using finer mesh sand to improve predictability of sand placement, increasing maximum operating pressure through a simple frac sleeve design change, which enables higher pump rates in the tows and refining and standardizing dual frac operations. Through these and other optimizations, we've driven an average 12% improvement in sand placed per day. We've also recently broke the prior operator record of 64 stages per day reaching 81 stages and 3,650 tonnes in a single day, resulting in a pad average of over 2,500 tonnes per day. We expect to carry the same performance into '26. And finally, the chart on the right shows our Duvernay completion performance. This has been a legacy plug and perf across all operators. So the key has been applying our internal workflows to the design, the execution and real-time frac optimization. These are the same processes we've been refining at Musreau. As a result, we've achieved an average 12% improvement in efficiency relative to '24. The most -- one of the most impactful design changes that we've made is running larger diameter casing in the lateral, which enables higher pump rates at the same operating pressure. And if you look back, specifically at the wells where we've implemented this latest design change, we're seeing a 33% increase in completion efficiency compared to the prior design. And we expect those gains will continue into this year. Next slide is commentary on production and frac optimization. We will highlight some of the work we've done to ensure we're getting the most out of every dollar of capital we spend, really taking that optimization to the next step. While capital efficiency is critical, completions are way more than just simply pumping as much sand as possible on a day. We also need to drive frac effectiveness, which we define as a percentage of the lateral that is effectively stimulated. That effectiveness is enabled through our execution workflows, supported by a group of technical professionals and 24/7 manned frac rooms, aided by advanced real-time diagnostics, automation and continuous monitoring. The results are shown in the graph on the left -- the graphic on the left. What you're seeing here are 2 side-by-side pads in the Kaybob Duvernay. Red indicates poorly stimulated zones and green indicates properly stimulated zones. The pad on the left was completed by a previous operator using a cookie-cutter design with minimal diagnostics and limited optimization. The pad on the right was completed by Whitecap using a tailored design and real-time monitoring to ensure consistent and proper stimulation across the lateral. The result was a 14% improvement in completion effectiveness, which is consistent with what we have observed across many of the other offset pads we've analyzed. Importantly, the same workflows are applied across all Whitecap plug-and-perf operations. The last point I'll make here on this slide relates to our team of Calgary and field-based personnel focused on base production optimization, nothing fancy, just strong production engineering combined with 24/7 surveillance. Base optimization is critical. In the second half of 2025 alone, we delivered an improvement of approximately 4,000 BOE per day on base wells in the Gold Creek and Karr assets versus the previous established trends. These gains are coming from efforts across several fronts, including predicting and optimizing artificial lift, minimizing downtime, facility debottlenecks and pipeline pressure reduction projects. The example shown on the right reflects exactly that approach. This is a 10-well pad that began producing in 2022, ahead of extensive drilling campaigns by prior operators. As development progressed and attention shifted to the new wells, this pad is left producing into higher line pressures, which drove higher downtime and lower production. Through a focused initiative to reduce this line pressure enabled by compression expansion and optimization, we shifted performance to the green line shown here, delivering a meaningful uplift to the compared prior trend. And this is really where our rigor, workflow and culture come together. It's a major contributor to the confidence we have in our forward guidance. . And with that, I will now pass it off to Chris Bullin, Vice President of our Conventional division to speak to that asset base.
Thanks, Travis, and good morning, everyone. Our conventional assets produce about 140,000 BOE per day with roughly 80% oil and NGLs. That production comes from a diversified footprint stretching from the Peace River Arch in Northwestern Alberta through Central Alberta and across Southwestern and Southeastern Saskatchewan. Over the past 16 years, we've grown this business substantially. And that growth hasn't been by chance. It reflects our ability to identify opportunities, execute and continuously elevate the organization through strategy, technical depth and operational excellence. When you take a step back and look at the map, it's clear how significant this division has become. We're the second largest light oil producer in Canada and the largest in Saskatchewan. Today, we have more than 3 million acres across multiple high-return play types, all actively competing for capital within the Whitecap portfolio and a multi-decade inventory of 5,800 locations, supported by 52,000 barrels per day of dedicated low decline waterflood and EOR assets. As we discussed earlier, the majority of our conventional assets sit in the stabilizing category. And in the next slides, we'll expand on the resource potential and longevity of this division, particularly the upside in secondary recovery and EOR. These are not legacy properties. They are strategic to our long-term vision. They provide a stable, predictable low-decline foundation with strong cash flows, deep inventory, technical understanding, our proven track record and operational resilience. And because we operate with an established infrastructure and facility networks, we capture full cycle cost advantages and reduce capital risk. Together, our conventional and unconventional divisions form a balanced, high-margin, long-life portfolio, and that balance is a key competitive advantage for Whitecap. We'll now turn to our conventional inventory and highlight 2 key takeaways. First, we are inventory-rich with approximately 5,800 locations. Now that represents a multi-decade runway of both premium locations and future upside, especially when you consider our 2026 program is just over 150 wells. Importantly, this inventory doesn't stay static. This year, our teams upgraded roughly 400 premium locations increasing premium inventory from 2,600 to 2,900 locations even after accounting for wells drilled. So that's a great example of how ongoing technical work continues to extend our runway and improve the quality of our inventory. And with only 40% of our conventional inventory currently booked as proved and probable reserves, we retain a long runway to continue enhancing locations and benefit from future technical advancements while also reflecting a disciplined and conservative booking strategy. The second key takeaway is that our conventional inventory remains highly competitive within the broader Whitecap portfolio. Our conventional assets are benefiting from more balanced and deliberate capital programs across our multiple regions, which has driven better capital efficiency and improved returns on capital. This approach has also strengthened our partnerships with service providers, enabling longer-term commitments and consistent access to top-tier equipment and crews. . The takeaway from this slide and the next is simple. Whitecap has a dominant position in large, scalable, long-life conventional assets, and we believe they can generate meaningful investor returns for decades. On this map, you can see the scale of our key conventional resource areas. These are large, high-quality reservoirs where a meaningful portion of the original oil in place has already been converted into long life, low decline stabilizing production. Across our EOR focused assets alone, our internal estimates indicate approximately 14 billion barrels of gross original oil in place supported by an aggregate forecast recovery factor of 35% over time. And importantly, there is still significant resource left to capture, even when we focus only on projects already utilizing secondary and tertiary recovery. Those projects carry a 2P NPV of approximately $8 billion at year-end 2024. Another advantage is that many of these projects already have some infrastructure and capital in place, which improves the economics and reduces the risk of future expansions. Ultimately, recoveries to date prove the resources there. The development model works and our team has a proven track record of extracting value from these assets. For us, large OOIP means these assets are nowhere near being tapped out. In fact, we just scratched the surface on some. Every incremental improvement in expanding already established and proven waterfloods or tertiary floods translates into step changes in recovery factors because the underlying asset base is so substantial. That's the advantage of size, scale and experience in large OOIP reservoirs as small gains and recovery factors become millions of barrels of additional reserves and decades of optionality. For context, 52,000 barrels per day of EOR production is only 19 million barrels per year. So while the risk recovery remains of 700 million barrels may seem small relative to the others in that table, it represents over 35 years of recoveries at 52,000 barrels per day. Now this isn't blue sky potential as these opportunities are grounded in what we've already delivered from the projects that are already utilizing secondary and tertiary recovery and the repeatability of results across a very large and predictable set of resources is substantial. To highlight these future upside opportunities, we'll start at the top and we'll work our way down the list. First, Alberta Conventional. The future potential here comes from a variety of projects. The Cardium has demonstrated improved recovery and lower declines already in established waterfloods, giving confidence that further expansion can extend asset life. Secondly, EOR upside has been identified in Boundary Lake, which is a very mature waterflood with large OOIP and infrastructure in place, would provide for increased recoveries through polymer implementation. Lastly, gas injection is being assessed on a variety of horizons, including Boundary Lake, Cardium and also in the Glauconite. Southwest Saskatchewan is the area with the most production from waterflood assets at 19,000 barrels per day and the most recoveries at 900 million barrels to date. We already have active polymer floods and further upside would be seen with waterflood expansion, additional polymer implementation and lastly, gas flooding is also currently being scoped by the teams. Eastern Saskatchewan, where we were focused on the Bakken, provides a clear example. Today, only 1/3 of our active development is under waterflood and only about 25% of our forecasted OOIP has been recovered to date. Our team has a line of sight to a significant waterflood expansion over time into areas that are currently on primary recovery only, and further technological advancements have the potential to unlock significant value in our large Bakken land base. Accordingly, our teams are also advancing scoping level assessments across a range of gas scenarios, including CO2 and ethane to evaluate technical feasibility and capital requirements. And last but not least, Weyburn, where we recently began CO2 injection into the Frobisher zone, which lies beneath the existing Weyburn and Midale unit. CO2 injection commenced in late 2023, and we continue to evaluate the results from our initial pilot, we'll focus on understanding commerciality, scalability and how this opportunity may fit within our longer-term EOR development plans. Importantly, this pilot leverages existing CO2 infrastructure, making it a strong brownfield example that allowed us to move efficiently while gathering valuable technical and economic data. That combination of high confidence today plus multi-decade recovery upside for tomorrow is exactly what differentiates these assets and anchors long-term shareholder value. One of the best examples of how we continue to optimize large OOIP assets and a global benchmark for secondary and tertiary recovery is the Weyburn CO2 EOR project. Weyburn has over 70 years of continuous production and represents one of the longest and most data-rich CO2 EOR track records in the world. To date, the field has produced approximately 600 million barrels of oil. And since CO2 injection began in 2000, it has also safely stored over 41 million tonnes of third-party CO2. As you can see on the production profile, this operating history gives us exceptional confidence in recovery factors, decline behavior and capital durability. Weyburn has proven, and it clearly demonstrates that tertiary recovery can reliably convert large volumes of OOIP into long-life predictable production. Importantly, Weyburn also provides decades of learnings around pattern design, CO2 utilization, sweep efficiency and conformance control, which helps us to materially derisk the application of EOR across other suitable reservoirs in our portfolio. . That gives Whitecap a real technical advantage. We can deploy capital to EOR projects selectively and prudently rather than committing risk capital to unproven recovery concepts. And our understanding of this asset continues to evolve. Recent geo modeling and internal reservoir simulations increased our estimated gross OOIP by approximately 20% to about 1.8 billion barrels. We've also expanded our projected recoveries into adjacent lands outside the unit and the underlying Frobisher zone, bringing total gross OOIP to approximately 2.5 billion barrels. So the key takeaway here is confidence and asset duration. Weyburn is the benchmark that proves low-risk recovery upside remains, and it reinforces the multi-decade EOR potential across our broader portfolio. Lastly, on the EOR theme, we wanted to highlight the economics of EOR using a typical Weyburn rollout as an example. A full rollout typically consisting of horizontal producer injector pairs can take over a year to fully deploy. Now because these projects are longer cycle, they don't optimize for the fastest payout the way short-cycle drilling does. Instead, they optimize for value, enhancing net present value and profit to investment ratios. And because they deliver low decline, high netback barrels, they provide long-term predictable production profiles that help stabilize the business through commodity cycles. You can see in the cumulative production curve, EOR projects start more gradually, but they build momentum over time with production often peaking more than 5 years after the initial investment. And to put that in perspective, a typical Weyburn rollout generates roughly 7x its invested capital over its life cycle, shifting the conversation from speed of payout to magnitude of payout. On the final 2 slides on the conventional division, we'll highlight how improvements in well design and execution across our portfolio are driving better capital efficiencies and higher profitability. Starting in the Bakken. This slide shows the evolution of our open-hole multilateral development, moving from a 1-mile design to 2-mile multilaterals and now to 3-mile multilaterals. The key takeaway is that we've systematically increased reservoir contact through longer laterals and the results are clear. Compared to our 2022 program, which includes 3 wells averaging 1 mile laterals, our 2025 program to date includes 6 wells averaging just over 2 miles. We're maximizing reservoir contact and productive capability without sacrificing capital efficiency. We're still in the early stages of open-hole multilateral development in the Bakken and we're excited about the runway to continue advancing performance. Moving to the Cardium. Recent success has been driven by an optimized completion design using workflows and learnings from our unconventional assets. Following a detailed review of our 2025 program of 11 wells, we identified an opportunity to improve performance through tighter cluster spacing and higher proppant intensity. Compared to the year's prior legacy design, this year's program delivered a 30% improvement on an IP180 basis and improved capital efficiency by 11%. And in the Frobisher, our continued focus is on maximizing reservoir contact through both longer laterals and additional lateral legs. Relative to 2022, our average leg count per well has increased from roughly 2 to 2.6 in 2025. And that's a 30% increase in reservoir contact. That design evolution has driven a 30% improvement in 6-month cumulative oil recoveries translating into a 30% uplift in NPV. These are just a few examples of how we continue to improve asset duration and returns across the conventional portfolio. And with that, I'll pass it to Travis to walk through the conventional drilling performance.
Thanks, Chris. On this slide, I'll quickly highlight some of the gains we made in drilling efficiency across some of our more active conventional assets. Drilling in these areas isn't overly complex. It's just consistent application of good drilling practices and a hyper focus on reducing downtime and eliminating nonproductive time. The slide on the left shows ROP in our Frobisher play where we have recently seen an 8% improvement. The key here is to maximize ROP with staying in zone, a balancing act that our geology and drilling teams handle very well. We have also continued to focus on reducing sidetrack times and increasing on-bottom drilling ROP through various advancements to bit design. The middle chart shows our Bakken open hole multi-lats where we have achieved a 14% improvement to overall ROP. This has been done through eliminating nonproductive drilling practices as well as improved directional profiles to reduce torque and drag leading to less slide time. Importantly, we've also worked diligently with our directional provider to reduce failures and to push our BHA life to over 250 hours, whereas the area norm would be closer to 100 hours. Lastly, the chart on the right shows our legacy Central Alberta Glauconite drilling where we continue to implement our monobore design that previously reduced costs by 10%. Of note, in Q4 2025, we drilled the pacesetter 2-well pad with average ROP of around 355 meters per day, compared to the area average of less than 250 meters per day. And as we move into '26, we will continue to apply the same philosophy of continuous improvement to seek out further drilling and completion efficiency gains across our entire asset base. With that, I'll now pass it back to Grant to finish off the presentation.
Thanks, Travis. Chris, Joey and Thanh for walking us through the business components and the work that our teams are doing across our portfolio. To close out, I'll spend a few next few slides, bringing it together everything we've covered in the balance of the presentation and what it means for Whitecap going forward. To wrap up, we've outlined the multiple pathways we have in front of us to continue advancing the business and delivering increased shareholder returns for decades to come. Our starting point in 2026 guidance of 370,000 to 375,000 BOE per day delivered across a diversified set of play types and commodities that includes light oil, liquids-rich natural gas and high deliverable natural gas inventory. In the near term, we also have approximately 90,000 BOE per day of available infrastructure capacity that can be utilized for quick production additions if required. That capacity comes from debottlenecking and further utilization of existing infrastructure as well as our LATOR Phase 1, which is approximately 50% complete as of today. Beyond that, we've also outlined a series of project level growth that in aggregate, represent approximately 325,000 BOE per day of organic growth potential. These include LATOR Phase 2, Gold Creek and Karr expansions, Resthaven lean gas development, Kakwa expansion. And finally, we've highlighted why our conventional portfolio is a key differentiator for Whitecap. We continue to advance new and improving technologies in open hole multilaterals as well as drilling longer laterals with monobores, driving costs down while improving recoveries and asset profitability. In many respects, we're still in the early innings of unlocking its full potential. The fact that an asset like Weyburn with more than 70 years of production history continues to offer meaningful runway and reinforces the durability and long life value embedded across our portfolio. The takeaway is simple. Our asset base is large in both order of magnitude and long-term profitability, and our focus remains maximizing returns and profitability in any commodity price environment. Our diversified long-dated inventory provides significant strategic flexibility, but also means there are many multiple pathways we can take to advance the business. On this slide, slide on growth optionality, we provided illustrative outcomes aligned with our corporate strategy of 3% to 5% production per share growth annually while including a stay flat scenario, that we employ in a low commodity price environment. These outcomes reflect our capital allocation strategy. In moderate commodity price environment, we would introduce growth while still prioritizing the balance sheet and share repurchases. As commodity prices move higher, we would allocate more capital towards organic growth where returns on our invested capital improve both near-term results and the free cash flow generated as prices normalize and growth moderates again. In these scenarios, annual capital would range from approximately $2 billion to $2.8 billion, fluctuating based on the pace of growth and which projects are deployed under different commodity price environments. Ultimately, we'd hope the takeaway from this slide and from the presentation as a whole is that we have an ability to adjust both pace and asset mix across our broad range of outcomes, not only over the next 5 years, but for a significant period of time beyond that. To close on Slide 45, build to provide durable returns. We'll circle back to the advantages that underpin our strategy and our ability to deliver long-term shareholder value through commodity price cycles. Our strategy is built on 4 core pillars: high-quality inventory, the significant depth, technical excellence and top-tier operating performance, capital discipline and a strong balance sheet. Our intention is to leverage the strength of all 4 pillars to drive free funds flow and deliver superior shareholder returns now and for decades to come. Before we conclude, I would like to recognize our staff both in the field and in the office for their dedication and continuous pursuit of improving profitability of this company. I also want to thank our Board of Directors for their guidance and their support. With that, I will now turn the call back to the operator, Sylvie, for any questions. Thanks very much.
[Operator Instructions] First, we will hear from Dennis Fong at CIBC World Market.
My first one is focused on just aggregate strategy. You mentioned very briefly in it in terms of how you think about your current depth of inventory. You obviously have a lot between both the conventional and unconventional. Obviously, in a volatile commodity price environment with the strength of your balance sheet, how do you think about being opportunistic in the specific situation? Obviously, understanding that internally, your portfolio is quite robust.
Yes. So thanks, Dennis. Just on the acquisition side, I mean I think that's what you're leaning towards. I mean what we look at, firstly, as we've tried to imply through the presentation, is that the -- we'll continue to -- with each one of our teams and our business development team, we'll look at opportunities into the future. The key component for us is when we talk about counter cyclicality is making sure that we have the strong balance sheet in order to do that. So at this particular time, relative to acquisitions, that isn't our primary driver because we have enough inventory to grow organically at this particular time, and we'll always have that. But if we can supplement that through acquisitions into the future, our balance sheet, we feel that's appropriate with our balance sheet strength, we'll look to do it. But at this particular time, our primary focus is going to be on organic growth as we advance forward or organic spending as we advance forward. .
Appreciate that context and that background there. When we think about my next one kind of shifts towards the organic growth portfolio. So when we think about that 325,000 BOEs a day of incremental growth projects beyond LATOR Phase 1, what stages of engineering are some of those projects in currently? And then what kind of either commodity price environment or key kind of technical milestones are you guys looking forward for to feel more comfortable about sanctioning or moving forward with those projects?
Dennis, Joey Wong here. Thanks for the question there on the projects. And maybe I'll talk about the projects and the underlying inventory kind of in conjunction because they kind of relate. So the projects themselves, they're in various stages of either understanding of the facility that's going to be needed for it or of understanding what we intend to do in order to fill it in the first place. So to give an example of that, that something could be a little bit further progress would be the one we spoke to in Gold Creek, that's an expansion of an existing facility. So the 25,000 barrel a day add that we have there is actually it's a bolt-on. So that will be relatively far down the line. There's actually even to the point where there's space on the lease for us. So that one is relatively far progressed. And then on the other end of the spectrum would be like we had mentioned there, Resthaven, where like I say, we do have a very, very solid understanding of the asset in terms of what it would be without things like the 2 dozen wells that we have and all of the work that we've done from a subservice point of view, but it isn't to the point that we have the understanding on something like Gold Creek. So it all exists on the spectrum, Dennis. Our intent as we go through our capital programs, though, is to introduce sleeves of activity that would be strategic in nature to progress some of those things. And like I mentioned there in the prepared remarks, the 2 wells that we have in Resthaven, we'll start to further that. We'll take the legacy data that we have, make sure it matches up with the translation into modern results and then we start to build from that. To come to your question there on how we would progress a sanctioning of a project, these are big things when we start to look at these larger legs of growth. And we would do those with a view to the long-term pricing that we see and ensuring that what we are left with in the overall portfolio gives us the same optionality that we enjoy today. So one of the key derisking mechanisms that we have in our corporate growth profile is -- like we outlined at fair detail here, the flexibility that we have or the optionality that we have to allocate capital throughout different price cycles, we want to make sure we retain that. So if we find ourselves at a place where -- let's just use a theoretical case where we fill up the majority of our liquids-rich gassy capacity, but we're long on the condensate side. Well, we would probably look to supplement the liquids-rich side, so we maintain that flexibility as long as the long-term commodity prices are supportive of that. So again, it's a lot of words there to describe the fact that we like what we have today, and we want to continue to build that out to maintain that optionality in the future.
I'm just going to read out the next question here that we have from Aaron Bilkoski with TD Cowen. With oil strip below $60 and reasonably strong North American gas prices, at the margin, do you see Whitecap allocating some capital to more gassier windows of the Montney than you would have if oil was $65 plus. Our comment to that really is when you look at the oil price today at $58 and where the Canadian dollar is currently trading at about $0.72, you're still seeing Canadian WTI prices in excess of $80 compared to AECO pricing for the balance of the year in 2026, somewhere in that $2.80 there. So when we look at the economic profile of oil and condensate opportunities as well as liquids-rich opportunities, they still provide better returns than the more gassier opportunities. So we think the development program that we've outlined for 2026 is very balanced and really optimizes the return profile at this time. Okay. The next question is, where are your light oil barrels destined? And is there sufficient capacity in pipeline? And so from our perspective, a lot of our light oil is centered in Saskatchewan, which is closer to the border between U.S. and Canada. And so we've been able to move our product very easily through -- on the light oil side there. So we haven't had any issues being able to produce and sell our product there. In terms of the condensate there, it's obviously being used as a dilutant in the oil sands there. So there's a natural ability for us to sell that domestically. The light oil goes to Edmonton pad 2 and to Eastern Canada there. So no issues from an egress perspective.
[Operator Instructions] Next, you will hear from Phillips Johnston at Capital One Securities.
I wanted to ask about what your next 12-month corporate PDP decline rate looks like today. And maybe within that company-wide average, what does the decline rate look like for both your conventional production as well as your unconventional production?
Yes. Thanks very much for your question. From an overall corporate perspective, our decline rate is between 28% to 29%. At this particular time, broken down, we're 19% to 20% on our conventional assets today, and our unconventional assets are declining between anywhere between 32% to 33% at this particular time.
Okay. Great. And then your capital budget this year, $2 billion to $2.1 billion, that is expected to generate some production growth. Within that figure, what would you estimate is your maintenance CapEx that would be required to just keep current production volumes flat?
Yes. So the maintenance CapEx there would be somewhere between $1.9 billion to $2 billion to keep production flat.
Thank you. And at this time, we have no other questions registered on the floor. Please proceed.
So the next question we have from [ Darren Stephens ], what is the AECO natural gas price today and what gas price do you see reasonable for 2026 and 2027 forecast? Well, the price today is natural gas prices on the Canadian side. AECO prices are about $2.80 per GJ. And for the average for 2026, the prices are approximately $2.60 at this particular time. So we're forecasting $3 as an average for the year at this particular time, we'll make adjustments if we see necessary. And for 2027, we think that ultimately, the gas prices do come back once we have incremental takeaway capacity or we fulfill the obligations to LNG Canada 1 and 2 into 2027. So we feel longer term gas prices will stabilize somewhere in that neighborhood of between CAD 2.75 per GJ to anywhere between up to CAD 3.75 per AECO in 2027, maybe up over $4. But at this particular time, we're using an average price of $3. And why it's particularly important is the takeaway capacity out of Canada is going to be very important as we advance forward. So we'll watch that very closely moving forward.
So the next question is, what would it take to drive all of Whitecap's free cash flow through the buyback given current valuation and soak up the full 10% of our NCIB there. And so when we look at the oil pricing environment today and we're using $60 WTI, we generate $1.2 billion of free cash flow and $900 million of that is allocated towards our dividend and $300 million towards our share buyback program there, which is about 3% of our float. So I think given where our intrinsic value is and where the share price is, any excess above that will certainly go towards buying back our shares. So that would be our objective at this time here.
I can read out the next one here, from Christian at Peters & Co. So the question says, on the operational improvements you highlighted related to unconventional and conventional business units, how much is factored into formal 2026 guidance. You also touched on some of the improvement initiatives you're targeting in 2026 to further the operational momentum realized over the past 2 years. So yes, Christian, where we have confidence and we're comfortable underwriting those efficiency gains, we've incorporated those into the program. So maybe I'll take a step back and give an example. Last year things that wouldn't have been incorporated when we started things like piloting the Winerack design took a bit of time to make sure that, that was going to be repeatable before we bake it into the program. But with that said, I can say that the ones that we've seen there, whether that's the outperformance on the production in places like Musreau, Kaybob, the outperformance in the drilling and completions, we've started to build all of those things in, where it's reasonable, recognizing that we are well on our way up the curve there. On the conventional side, any further comments there, Chris?
Yes, to add to that, Joey, I would say, a continued focus really on open-hole multi laterals if we shift to the Bakken in Eastern Saskatchewan. I mean the teams have definitely done a great job there to advance those initiatives as we've shown on the design optimization slide. And not just in some of the areas that we're starting to push play edges, but also from the conversion of more of the historical multi-stage frac technology, looking to convert to open hole multilaterals where we can. So the teams are stepping through that process very methodically right now to better understand that upside potential. Another key focus area for additional optimization potential for us, again, it remains to be the Frobisher and once again, the teams have done a great job there showing that progression over time, focusing on additional lateral lengths where we can. And really just at the end of the day, just trying to maximize our total development costs at the end of the day. So we want to be as efficient as possible. And other thing to note, too, is that we're in such a strong position that we don't need to take any unnecessary risks within our portfolio, too. So everything is a very measured approach when we go through that very systematically from kind of decision analysis perspective, so definitely a competitive advantage for us in that regard, too.
The next question is, do you have access to natural gas markets that aren't constrained by AECO pricing? So currently, our mix there is we've got 78% exposed to AECO of which 29% of that production has been hedged for 2026 at $3.76 per GJ and 22% is exposed to other markets, including Dawn, the U.S. Midwest and Henry Hub. And we've seen the importance of price diversification. If you look at our Q3 report, where we realized almost double the price of AECO as a result of that. So longer term, there is certainly a target to continue to move some of that exposure away from AECO because we do think that is important in terms of the pricing mix.
Just really quickly on another question we have. What do you expect Whitecap's production mix, crude oil, natural gas, NGLs to be in 2026. As we talked about in the presentation, we expect this year to be 60% oil and liquids and 40% natural gas. Do you have other questions?
At this time, there are no questions on the phone.
Thank you, Sylvie. Once again, we appreciate you taking the time and interest to listen today. We are excited to continue down the path and generate significant value for shareholders now and for many years to come. Lastly, I would again like to emphasize it's with the appreciation of the hard work of our staff within the office and field that we're able to pull all of this. Not only it's information together, but the operational excellence that we've been able to demonstrate. I want to thank you for your performance and look forward to an exciting 2026. Thanks very much, everyone.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed concludes your conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending. And at this time, we do ask that you please disconnect your lines. Enjoy the rest of your day.
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