Aberdeen Group Plc (ABDN) Earnings Call Transcript

Welcome to 2026 Half Year Results of Aberdeen. I will now turn the call over to Jason Windsor. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you very much for joining Siobhan and me for Aberdeen's Half year '26 results presentation on what I know is a busy morning for you. Today, we're here in our Manchester office, the headquarters of Interactive Investor. We're hoping to be the first FTSE company to present results from Manchester under the new Prime Minister. Anyway, I'm going to begin with an overview of our strategic and financial performance, and then Siobhan will take you through the financials in a little more detail before we return to Q&A. So just let me start with a reminder of our ambition. Our aim is to be the U.K.'s leading wealth and investments group, and our purpose is simple, enabling our clients to be better investors. We're building on a strong foundation. Interactive Investor is the U.K.'s #1 direct-to-consumer platform measured by net flows and now has over GBP 100 billion of customer assets. Adviser is the U.K.'s third largest advice platform, serving over half of the U.K. adviser market. And Investments is a specialist asset manager with nearly GBP 400 billion of assets and strengths in a number of attractive growth areas. And our group is united by a common set of priorities. We remain focused on transforming performance, improving the client experience and strengthening our talent and culture. Together, these priorities underpin our strategy to generate sustainable growth and create long-term value for our customers and shareholders. So on to progress in the first half. Aberdeen's continued its positive trajectory through the first half of the year, and I'm increasingly confident in our ability to deliver the ambitious 2026 targets we set out for the group. Adjusted operating profit increased by 21% to GBP 151 million, and net capital generation increased by 47% to GBP 163 million, benefiting from revenue growth, improved efficiency and the actions we've taken to unlock value from our pension surplus. ii delivered another excellent result, increasing profit by 22%. In Adviser, profit was broadly flat. We've improved service levels and taken action to strengthen the proposition and improve the client experience. Flows remain a challenge, however, and I'll talk more on our plans to address that in a moment. And in investments, we are delivering improvements in investment performance while continuing to focus on operational efficiency, with profits up 9%. These results demonstrate how better execution is translating into improved profitability. Let me now quickly review the businesses, starting with ii. ii continues to perform exceptionally well across its key metrics. Customer numbers increased by 14% year-on-year to 525,000, while SIPP customers increased by 35% to 125,000. Net inflows reached a new record of GBP 6.8 billion, with positive markets also lifting assets under administration to almost GBP 108 billion. Trading activity was high, in fact, above trend in the first half with daily average retail trades up more than 40%. Importantly, we continue to improve our competitive position. Our repricing has landed well and brand awareness has increased materially over the past year. We are growing share across trading, assets and new accounts while continuing to attract high-value customers with average customer account sizes now over GBP 200,000, which is approximately double the market average. We're also continuing to expand the proposition. The rollout of ii360 and ii Advice continues, and there are further opportunities to attract and engage more investors on the platform, including services like ii Community, which has seen membership double in the last year. Combined with our compelling pricing model, excellent service and continued investment in the brand, we are well positioned to capture the long-term structural growth in U.K. wealth. We're all excited about ii's growth prospects as we take a growing slice of a growing market. Turning now to Adviser. In Adviser, our focus through the first half has been on further improving and streamlining our proposition to our clients and their advisers. We've made significant investment in the platform, strengthened leadership with the appointment of Rich Denning as CEO. And in July, earlier this month, we brought servicing in-house from FNZ. That gives us greater control and end-to-end ownership of the client experience. We're already seeing benefits of the actions we've taken. Our Net Promoter Score is well ahead of target at plus 53 and customer satisfaction has reached 97%. This is because service performance has improved and straight-through processing has increased. Let me give one example. Firm onboarding times have improved by over 90%. At the same time, we're clear that flow performance needs to improve. The market has evolved with adviser consolidation, panel rationalization and greater competition for transfer business, all having an impact. So our focus now is on converting stronger foundations into sustainable commercial performance. We're sharpening our distribution strategy and deepening our relationships with strategic adviser firms. We have a developing pipeline of strategic partnerships and back book migration opportunities, supported by our new and improved onboarding capability. And we're taking a disciplined approach to areas that create structural drag. As you know, we previously anticipated that a turnaround in flows would be achieved in 2026. We now expect this return to net inflows to take longer, and we'll come back with more color on this in due course. On this, Rich has already completed a detailed segmentation analysis with early highlights showing where we are growing and where we have work to do. Let me be clear, our conviction in Adviser is unchanged. The proposition is strong and the platform works well and the operational progress we have made gives us a much stronger base from which to improve flows over time. Turning now to investments. The Investments business made further progress during the first half, delivering increased profits, improved investment performance and encouraging momentum in several specialist growth areas. AUM increased to GBP 398 billion, supported by positive market performance. 3-year investment performance improved to 86% of assets performing against benchmark, significantly above our target of 70%, while 1-year performance increased to 88%. We're seeing positive momentum in a number of our equity strategies, particularly emerging markets and thematic capabilities, alongside continued strong delivery from fixed income, liquidity, quants and alts. We're also seeing encouraging momentum across our specialist capabilities. Real Assets generated GBP 1.4 billion of net inflows in the half. Our infrastructure also completed a successful first close of approximately GBP 800 million for its flagship rail fund. In the wholesale channel, we have delivered positive flows in 10 of the last 12 months, with demand improving across equities, fixed income and commodities as market conditions stabilized in the second half of Q2. Our emerging markets franchise continues to see strong client interest, supported by a number of 4- and 5-star rated investment strategies. Looking ahead, we remain focused on accelerating growth across our highest conviction opportunities, including private markets, closed-end funds and commodities, supported by deeper strategic partnerships. With the completion of the Stagecoach and MFS transactions and the forthcoming addition of Herald, we have further strengthened our investing capabilities and supported profitability. Our target of GBP 100 million of adjusted operating profit in investments for '26 was always an ambitious goal. That said, with profit for the second half expected to be materially higher than the first, not least reflecting the earnings benefit from our bolt-on acquisitions, I expect we will be broadly in line with this target based on annualized second half profit. A few words now on AI, a theme which is rightly at the front of mind for many investors. AI is emerging as a meaningful enabler of growth and efficiency across our group. Our aim is to invest and adapt meaningfully so that AI becomes a core part of how we operate now and in the future, of course, whilst always acting in a responsible manner. What has particularly encouraged me is the enthusiasm of our colleagues. As we roll out Copilot Premium across the business, colleagues are embracing the opportunity to learn, experiment and apply AI in their day-to-day work. We also have teams operating at a strategic level, deploying AI into products, software development and accelerating processes, building on some excellent work we've undertaken on unifying and structuring our data. Adoption continues to increase rapidly, and colleagues are reporting meaningful time savings and improved outcomes. But it's premature to forecast how AI will affect the business or our markets. In fact, I don't believe anyone knows. What I do know is that our culture has embraced AI and the strong early adoption to date across our group sets us up very well to benefit from artificial intelligence. And just a quick comment on progress against our group targets. We're less than 6 months to the end of the current plan period, we're confident in our ability to deliver the full year 2026 group targets, which were adjusted operating profit of more than GBP 300 million and net capital generation of around GBP 300 million. The first half has demonstrated we're on track to achieve these targets. Our focus beyond '26 remains on achieving our growth potential across the group with sustainable profitability supporting investment in the business and the dividend, all underpinned by a very strong balance sheet. As part of this and as we set out at the time of our full year results, we expect 5% to 10% growth in net capital generation per annum over the medium term on top of our '26 targets, obviously, without any major market irregularities. So thank you. With that, I'll hand over to Siobhan to take you through the financial performance.

Thanks, Jason, and good morning, everyone. Let me take you through the financial performance for the first half of 2026, our capital position and our outlook for the remainder of the year. The first half of 2026 was characterized by strong financial performance across the group. We continue to grow the business while maintaining our focus on efficiency and capital discipline. The strong organic growth delivered by Interactive Investor, stable profitability in Adviser and continued cost discipline and investments all contributed to a significant increase in group profitability. As a result, adjusted operating profit increased by 21% to GBP 151 million. IFRS profit before tax was GBP 276 million, reflecting investment gains and interest income. Cost savings delivered in recent years and our ongoing focus on efficiency are enabling us to drive positive operating leverage across the group. This has created capacity for us to invest in growth opportunities, improve client outcomes, support sustainable profitable growth and reduce costs in absolute terms in the first half. Capital generation was also particularly strong. Net capital generation increased by 47% to GBP 163 million, benefiting from higher profitability, actions taken to unlock value from the defined benefit pension surplus and materially lower restructuring expenses. In line with our policy, the interim dividend has been maintained at 7.3p per share. Dividend coverage has strengthened significantly with adjusted capital generation now covering the dividend 1.39x. The dividend is now also fully covered by net capital generation with coverage at 1.24x. Let me now turn to the performance of the individual businesses, starting with Interactive Investor, where all figures exclude the financial planning business we sold in January. Pleasingly, Interactive Investor delivered another excellent period of growth and continues to demonstrate the strength and scalability of its business model. Total customer numbers increased by 14% to 525,000. And within that, SIPP customers grew by 35% to 125,000. Net inflows reached a record GBP 6.8 billion, up 66% year-on-year. The combination of these strong inflows and positive markets has seen AUMA increased by 15% to GBP 108 billion in the first 6 months of this year. And this growth has also been reflected in financial performance with revenue increasing by 22% to GBP 173 million. Subscription revenue increased by 15% to GBP 30 million, supported by continued growth in customer numbers. Trading revenue increased by 9% to GBP 49 million. This was driven by record trading activity with daily average retail trades increasing by 42% to 35,700, more than offsetting the impact of the repricing and reduction in FX fees earlier in the year. Treasury income increased by 33% to GBP 100 million, driven by higher average cash balances. The average cash margin in the first half was 234 basis points. The business has increased investment in marketing, technology and future growth capacity while continuing to do this in a disciplined way. Given the strong growth achieved and the inherent scalability of the business, key measures of cost efficiency have strengthened with the cost-to-AUMA ratio now at 18 basis points. As a result, adjusted operating profit increased by 18% to GBP 84 million. Turning now to Adviser. AUMA increased by 5% to GBP 85 billion, supported by positive market movements. As Jason has already outlined, net flows remain challenging. Net outflows were GBP 1.3 billion in the first half compared with outflows of GBP 0.9 billion in the prior year. While gross flows -- inflows increased by 9%, this was more than offset by higher redemptions. Flow recovery, therefore, remains a key priority. Revenue increased modestly to GBP 103 million, with growth in AUMA partially offset by the continued impact of strategic repricing and tiering, the combined impact of which was to reduce revenue yield to 25.3 basis points, in line with our guidance. Expenses increased by 3% to GBP 62 million, reflecting the end of the temporary third-party outsourcing discount that benefited the first half of 2025 as well as an increase in AUMA-related costs. Against that backdrop, adjusted operating profit remained broadly stable at GBP 41 million. Looking now at investments. The business continues to execute against its priorities while benefiting from improved investment performance and ongoing cost discipline. Assets under management increased by 2% to GBP 398 billion, driven by positive market movements. Within Institutional and Retail Wealth, net outflows, excluding liquidity, principally reflected the approximately GBP 4 billion of lower margin equity withdrawals previously announced. These were partially offset by net inflows of GBP 1.4 billion into real assets as well as net inflows into quantitative strategies and fixed income. Q2 net outflows of GBP 0.5 billion do not include the previously flagged GBP 1 billion of credit win, which funded at the very start of July. Insurance partner net outflows improved significantly to GBP 0.8 billion compared with GBP 4.5 billion in the prior period. Revenue across the Investments business as a whole was 2% lower at GBP 363 million. Management fees were broadly unchanged, although revenue margins continue to reflect changes in asset mix. Other fees that are, by their nature, one-off and performance driven, such as performance and development fees were lower in H1. These are expected to be H2 weighted. Importantly, costs reduced by 3% to GBP 325 million. As a result, adjusted operating profit increased by 9% to GBP 38 million. Turning now to capital generation. Adjusted capital generation increased by 26% to GBP 182 million. This reflected higher profitability and a GBP 19 million benefit from using the defined benefit pension surplus to fund defined contribution pension costs. In line with our expectations, restructuring and corporate transaction expenses were significantly lower year-on-year. This benefited net capital generation, which increased by 47% to GBP 163 million. Our capital position remains strong. Total capital coverage increased to 229% compared with 218% at the end of 2025 and remains well above our medium-term operating range of 140% to 180%. Given our strong capital position, we expect to redeem GBP 210 million of Tier 1 debt at its first call date in December 2026, subject to regulatory approval. This debt is contributing circa 25 percentage points to the capital ratio at half 1 2026. Turning finally to our financial guidance for 2026 as a whole. For Interactive Investor, we expect revenue growth to continue in line with growth in customers. While costs will increase in absolute terms as we invest in the business, we continue to expect a cost-to-AUMA ratio of below 18 basis points. In Adviser, profitability is expected to be broadly flat in H2, reflecting higher markets and the growth in AUMA-related expenses. Investments performance in the second half will be stronger, benefiting from revenue associated with recent bolt-on acquisitions, higher market levels and expected other fees. Expenses will increase modestly, reflecting investment in growth opportunities and AUMA-related costs. At group level, we are confident in delivering our 2026 full year targets of adjusted operating profit of more than GBP 300 million and net capital generation of around GBP 300 million. The year-on-year improvement in group AOP versus 2025 is expected to be predominantly revenue driven with expenses broadly in line as we continue to invest in growth. And with that, I'll hand back to Jason.

Thank you, Siobhan. And just let me just complete with a few comments. Aberdeen's continued its positive trajectory through the first half of the year. We've improved profitability, strengthened capital generation and continued to execute against our strategy. The strong performance of Interactive Investor, improving momentum across investments and the continued strengthening of Adviser's foundations give us greater visibility and confidence as we move into the second half. Consistent execution remains central to achieving our ambitions over the remainder of the year. Delivering our '26 targets will demonstrate the strength of our business, the commitment of our people and lay the foundation for Aberdeen's next phase of growth. While we can take some satisfaction from our progress, we are still far from where I want Aberdeen to be. Our focus remains on delivering better outcomes for our customers and clients, improving performance further across the group and creating lasting value for shareholders. With that, I'll close, and we'll move on to your questions.

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from Nicholas Herman of Citi.

A couple of questions from me, please, on Adviser and Investments. So on Adviser, I guess there's a couple within this one. But you said Rich Denning has identified where you need to do better. Can you just provide more detail there where his key focus areas will be in the short term as you work towards net positive flows? And the second one on Adviser is now that you've had the pricing cuts, does that mean that the margin should remain at around 25 basis points going forward? And then the final question on investments flows and specifically equity. Look, it's encouraging to see the strong improvement in equities' performance and also an increase in gross inflows. But equally, the outflows have continued. I'm surprised actually see net outflows increased in EM in Q2 in particular. But could you just talk about client engagement and the pipeline for equities and how you expect your equities flows to trend from here, please?

Thanks, Nicholas. I'll take them in the order that you asked them. So in Adviser, I'm delighted Rich has joined us. We've done a -- as you'd imagine, the new CEO would come in and think hard about how we're trading. And what we've segmented broadly the market into, I think it was 8 or 9 groups. I think the -- what I said in my remarks, we've seen considerable consolidation in the IFA market and considerable movement in the way people want to face into the platform market. And frankly, we probably could have been quicker in that regard. And what we need to do is engage with firms and the shareholders of these firms and these families of firms to make sure that we engage them in the way that they want to trade to serve them better and frankly, to be more commercial in the way that we face into that. And that will give us opportunities in back book migrations in particular, with some of the bigger firms that we have relationships with. At the same time, the work that has gone on to improve the performance and there's an engagement around other firms to make sure that we have got that priced first position on the panel, and that just requires a little bit of reinvigoration of how we face into the more regional IFA market. I think on the margins, yes, we did sort out our go-to-market price. I mean there are deals also that are required. I think it wouldn't be the case to see that revenues would be flat. I think you would expect a degree of competition to continue, and that would manifest in some basis point reduction over, say, a 3-year period in revenue margin. I couldn't be more precise than that, but I would expect some of that competition to manifest itself in slightly lower revenue margins at the same time where you've got growth in AUA from markets and from flows.

I think just to add, so we've given guidance of 25 to 26 basis points in the past. We are at 25.3 basis points for this first half. So you have some of the benefit -- some of the impact of the repricing from last year still coming through. Also, in this business, you get the impacts of tiering. So what I'd expect as AUMA grows for the tiering to impact. So you will expect some natural kind of movement in that as the AUMA grows.

That's helpful. So just to clarify, it sounds like Rich agrees with you that the pricing is now in the right place and now it's much more around client engagement.

Yes, the standard pricing, that's right. But we'll continue to -- we're seeking to grow it so that the commerciality of the business will continue. Okay. On the flows, as we talked about Q1 for equities, which obviously is the main part of the first half and it was tough. We did lose a couple of mandates and an investment trust that we talked about on the previous call. We've also -- in Q2, we did have one client actually redeem, but we expect them to reinvest in a similar equity strategy in the second half, and that's quite a large movement that we're supporting them through a restructure, but that has gone out, but we expect it to come back in. So I think more broadly, the -- particularly the GEM income product has been selling very well, wholesale and institutional. So that's continued to do well. The performance of both value and income across the emerging market products has improved significantly over the last 12 months. And that's been supported by better commercial outcomes. I think across the piece, we do expect the second half to be better and rightly so. So we do continue to face into that and make sure -- but as I said, the -- we've got some specific wins in the pipeline that we do expect to fund in H2. We've got much better performance in the wholesale channel, and you can see some of that in the gross flows in equities is coming through the wholesale channel. So we are gearing ourselves up for a better second half.

We will now take our next question from Hubert Lam of Bank of America.

I've got 3 questions, 2 on ii and one on Investments. Firstly, on ii, I saw that the cash margin was 234 basis points. I'm just wondering how sustainable this is and whether or not you have guidance for this for cash margin for this year and next year? And also related to that cash balances have also come down quarter-on-quarter. Just wondering what's driving that? Second question on ii. I know you've given the guidance around cost there being less than 18 bps. Just wondering about just how we think about cost growth and operating leverage in ii from here. And lastly, on investments, I noticed also the fee margin went down to 18.5 basis points. I think previously, you guided for 19 bps for the year. I'm just wondering if that's still the case and how we should think about the second half?

Okay. I'll take the ii ones and then, do you want to do the Investments. So I think the cash margin was slightly higher. We did see, I think, as everybody knows, quite a significant change in the expectations for short-term interest rates during the half. So we were slightly above trend. I think our long-term guidance of 2.1% to 2.2% approximately stands. I think we have been above that. I think we'll probably be slightly above that in the second half, but we will stick to that as a guide. But within that range, we're not trying to sort of fine-tune every basis point, but that is, I think, a reasonable guide. The cash balances were actually slightly high at the end of March. I think on -- broadly on trend, I think at around 8% of AUA at the end of June. Why were they high at the end of March? Well, 2 reasons. One, we had extremely high transfers coming in. Some of them come in cash, some of them come in [indiscernible] but that was a particular high point. We saw a lot of activity in Q1. And secondly, of course, we were still in the first throes of the conflict in Iran, and we saw some investor hesitancy just to put the money to work. Some of that's now taken place, as you might expect during Q2. But we would sort of guide the cash as a percentage. as market levels have gone up, cash has come down a little bit just arithmetically. But so it's around 8%. But we think we've said in the past, 8% to 9%, that's about right. Investment margin, Siobhan?