Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. (GALP) Earnings Call Transcript
October 26, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Galp's Third Quarter 2026 Results Presentation. I will now pass the floor to Joao Goncalves Pereira, Head of Investor Relations.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Galp's Third Quarter 2026 Q&A session. I'm joined today by our co-CEOs, Joao da Silva and Maria Joao Carioca as well as by the remaining executive team. But before passing the mic for some quick opening remarks, let me start with our usual disclaimer. During today's session, we will be making forward-looking statements that are based on our current estimates. Actual results could differ due to factors outlined in our cautionary statement within the published materials. With this, Jean-Do,the floor is yours.
Thank you. Before turning out to our quarterly performance, I would like to briefly address this morning's announcement. As disclosed, the discussions with Move have concluded without an agreement. Throughout this process, the parties remain committed to exploring the potential benefits of combining downstream activities to create additional value to our shareholders. And we continue to believe that consolidation can create opportunities to increase scale, strengthen competitiveness and support future growth. At the same time, our confidence in the stand-alone value of our downstream business has never changed. While the strategic rationale for consolidation remains compelling, value discipline will always guide our decisions. We remain open to opportunities, but we only deliver them on terms that clearly create long-term value for our shareholders. Turning to the quarter. Strategy execution remains firmly on track. In Brazil, Makara's ramp-up is progressing as planned, with production already reaching peak levels on several days. In Namibia, we are about to start drilling the next exploration and appraisal campaign in Nope. These milestones reinforce the core pillar of Galp's investment case, visible, tangible growth from our upstream portfolio. Maria, would you like to add a few words?
Thank you, Jan. Yes, I would, and good morning, everyone. So let me start by reinforcing Joao's message regarding this morning's announcement. Capital discipline on value accretion is simply nonnegotiable. So ultimately, the deal didn't go through simply because we were unable to align on a value-creating partnership. That said, Galp's investment case and capital allocation priorities remain strong and distinctive. We continue to be fully confident on the stand-alone value of our downstream businesses, and our equity story continues to offer a quite unique combination of growth, resilience and optionality. So this third quarter speaks precisely to the strength and resilience of our portfolio. Despite continued disruption across global energy markets, our asset base successfully captured the volatility and actually delivered another strong operational performance. This performance translated into rather robust cash generation, accommodating both the higher working capital requirements and the acquisition of the wind portfolio announced in July. Net debt remained broadly stable, and our balance sheet position was further reinforced. Following another strong quarter and updating our assumptions for the remaining of the year, we once again raised our full year guidance. We now expect EBITDA of around EUR 5 billion and operating cash flow close to EUR 3.9 billion. Our focus remains clear: delivering operational excellence, executing our strategy with discipline and maximizing value creation. With that, we're happy to take your questions. Operator, we may start the Q&A session.
[Operator Instructions] And now we take our first question. First question comes from the line of Joshua Stone from UBS.
Two questions, please. One, you talked about your capital allocation priorities remaining unchanged. Can you just remind us where do you see shareholder distributions fitting into that frame and can you confirm that your policy of 1/3 of cash flow being returned to shareholders is also unchanged? And then second, slightly smaller question, but just on the upstream operating costs, I know it's a bit of a step up to $4.4 a barrel unit cost. Is it fair to say that's probably a normal run rate now as we have back ramps up and going into the future periods?
Josh, thank you for the questions. So on distributions, we continue to look at our framework as we rather competitive and sustainable. We have indeed approached the topic of revisiting following a portfolio change that with this morning's announcement is no longer the case. So we don't see that as a topic on the table as of this moment. So as we stand right now, the current policy applies since the 1/3 of OCF is still what we have outlined that at the moment. On upstream, your question on OpEx. Yes, indeed, I think this is the combination of both a slightly heavier maintenance schedule in July. So this quarter had that a bit of a seasonality effect. But it is also, of course, the fact that Bacalhau is still on a ramp-up and we still have a bit of fluctuation there. So there are still a few one-off costs in Bacalhau as well. So all in all, not what you would call your new normal in Brazil at all.
And the next question today comes from the line of Alejandro Vigil from Santander.
The first 1 is regarding those comments about that GAP is open to strategic partnerships. If you can elaborate on that and potential some transactions in some other areas like renewables. For example, you have been discussing in the past. And my second question is about the -- we are now almost the end of the year. If you can start discussing the '27, how you see in terms of particularly of the Upstream business in terms of volume, if possible?
Alejandro. So on the first question. It's clear on our DNA, how partnerships make sense for a company like us, long-term partnerships. And you're right. We're looking within our portfolio. We are looking into opportunities. So it's something that we do on a regular basis. And it's also true that on the renewable side, the recent acquisitions, improved scale, improved the technology mix, increasing the platforms strategic attractiveness. So it's clearly that we are much well prepared now. We are not in a hurry. That's very clear. And at this point, also no further inorganic acquisitions are planned. But finally, it will be always, as Maria just said, a disciplined decision-making. So no pressure, steady pace. -- and the partnerships will make sense, not only in renewables but also as we expose on the downstream. So the rationale and the end game even on the downstream side, though we don't -- we didn't find an end, a good end to the deal will remain. And that's something that we need to keep in our minds.
Alejandro, let me pick up on your 2027 question and on upstream in particular. We were not yet guiding for through production numbers, but you can get the gist, right? I mean Bacalhau has been evolving towards plateau quite steadily. So we do expect Bacalhau to be there throughout 20 that as working interest per gap means approximately 40,000 barrels. So given that was the fact that our remaining assets in Brazil are still holding to a rather low and actually best practice in the industry, a rather low depletion rate under 5%. TP has a number of additional initiatives that have brought us back to prior levels. So you just take current levels, give it the bump of Bacalhau and we're not officially guiding, but I think the mathematics kind of works on a pretty straightforward manner.
Thank you. Next question today comes from [indiscernible] from Bank of America.
The first 1 would be around more, if I could. I guess you expressed quite strong confidence in completing this deal in the past and now sort of I guess, value seems to be a sticking point. Are you able to shed any further light on that is the volatility of commodity prices and perhaps even political backdrops whether be windfall taxes or other conversations? Have there been a bit of a headwind there? Can you comment on that? And the follow-on would really be, could you foresee a similar transaction in the future with a different party as it relates to the downstream business? And then if I could call the second question around the commercial business. That seems to be the real standout for the quarter, usually a very steady and improving business performance there, but quite a sizable. So could you add any color and draw out any one-offs, if at all relevant please?
Thank you for the question. Let me start by giving a word of appreciation to the teams that have been working for the last couple of months. It was indeed a lengthy negotiation period. And as you said, we need to come to announce, and that's what happened right now. I would not comment on any specific terms that you've mentioned. It was a combination that on the end, in the commercial terms didn't allow us to reach a sustainable and value-accretive deal. And that's all. So it was indeed, the last mile decision, but it was a very well-supported decision. And let me also tell you that we are really comfortable with the quality of the assets that we hold. And it's visible on the delivery that you've just mentioned. On the commercial side, we still believe and it's part of our -- it's part of our way to develop or to reach a partnership to segregate the commercial retail business from the industrial business. It makes all the sense -- and we will follow that. So on the commercial question, it's indeed a high record quarter. I need to say that more than 80% of the delivery comes from outside of Portugal, namely from Spain, namely from the B2B, we were very well performing on the spot markets and with the opportunities that the parent contact pricing, pricing-wise, are offering to us. But let me also underline the very, very substantial performance from the convenience side, which represents by now roughly 1/3 of the delivery. It's a very consistent partnering that we've delivered to the market. Let me also tell you that in the Portugal side, on the Portuguese side, we've decreased 10% roughly our delivery. So the African business, the Spanish business are the levers to the numbers that you've just seen.
Our next question today comes from Gui Levy, Morgan Stanley.
Firstly, on and in terms of the downstream segment as a whole, would you consider a restructuring that doesn't necessarily involve a partner? Would you consider spinning off downstream even if you're not able to scale up first. And then secondly, in terms of longer-term plans and guidance, I suppose in the past few quarters for Galp has been the continuous restructuring or geo stocks on the Mideast year on wave this year. Now that the talks with Movin' advance, but you left the door have open to potentially do some more restructuring in the subsidiary in the future. How should we think about the impact that has to your ability to provide longer-term guidance over the coming quarters?
Thanks, Glen. I'll take the first 1 and Maria will take the second one. It's -- I can see where you will, but it doesn't make too much sense for us not to have a partnership on the downstream, considering not only the scale, complementary competitiveness, but also the deconsolidation. So that's something that wouldn't make any sense to keep 100% of this business in the future partnership. So that's what we -- that's how we see it. And for us, clearly, the retail play is completely different from the industrial play, which is an investment case considering energy transition. We feel ourselves in the right direction on Encinas. We really believe that CNS will continue to be the first year refinery, very well balanced and dimension to the Portuguese market, which is the natural market to the refinery. And the retail business, which is a clear focus on the customer side, where we lead in Portugal and with delivery that we've just mentioned are breaking records quarter-on-quarter. So that's where we see ourselves very comfortable and available to look at partnerships that will allow us to deal competitiveness on both ends.
On the -- let me take the second part of your question. So it has indeed been a period of negotiation that has entailed quite a lot of work for the teams. But Quite a lot of that work has actually been helpful in the sense that it has shown us pathways towards optimizing some of our operations towards greater efficiency in running some of our support functions. So there is quite a few lessons learned from the process that we engaged in, and we see that as something that we will continue throughout the coming years. So there is the same lines of optimization that I believe have been with us for quite some time, but now with the benefit of having taken some learnings from the transaction. So we will continue to optimize on support functions. We will continue to look into everything that has to do with optimizing the portfolio. We've already spoken here today about renewables. We do see some catalysts for optimization there. We do know that upstream continues to be our growth engine. And there also Mopane is about to go into a new stage -- and we do continue to look at Brazil as promising and even though even small opportunities can turn into interesting options. So quite a few catalysts there. We will continue to look into partnerships and into market structures as a way forward in our portfolio. and we will take opportunities to optimize. And we do feel that this is a way forward that has actually been to quite a few -- to quite some extent, a beneficial one.
Next question comes from Paul Redman from BNP Paribas.
So the first 1 is just a little bit about the Renewables deal. You've been through 2 big negotiations over the past 1.5 years Mopane and wore I wanted to see if there's any learnings you could take from those discussions around how you think about the strategic options you have for the renewables deal? Is there anything you might have done differently in those discussions and that could translate into any possible future options Secondly, on refining margins, it's been very volatile. You've raised your macro scenario for the year, $25 a barrel. Have I asked what you've seen so far in 4Q to date and what you're seeing on screen today for refining margins and then to touch on next year. This year, you are hedged, I think it was $130 or portfolio about $8 a barrel. Are you planning to do similar hedging next year? And what sort of price assumptions should we be using for that?
Well, thank you for your questions. So I'll Paul and I'll follow the first well, the 2 questions. So on the first one, it's clear on the learning side. What we've done on the recent acquisitions that I've just mentioned. So it's -- they've improved our scale. They gave us a different generation profile a different mix, and it's clear on the results that we are much more balanced right now considering the consolidation of the 2 wind farms that we just bought. The objective in the end will be to create additional capital flexibility. We know that. While we want to maintain our exposure to the long term, or growth that we see in the market. So that's very clear. Both strategic and financial partnerships are possible. No structure is excluded at this point. But it's very early now. And as I said, no further inorganic acquisitions are planned. And we will keep our discipline not pressure whatsoever, but at a steady pace. On the refining margins, it's indeed a very volatile environment. We expect margins to keep on the double figures, we've seen as per today, margin going above 20%. And it's -- we are not expecting to see a reduced. Edging -- we use hedging sorry, selectively when the market prices exceed Galp's market release, that's how we see it. The policy reserves those bottoms. But and then nothing to change. A few legacy engines are still in place for 2027, slightly above 15%. That's the number. and we will stick to our policy, as I've mentioned. Thank you.
Thank you. And the next question today comes from Kate O'Sullivan from Citi.
So firstly, back on the downstream following the end of the more talks, will you remain active in the market now pursuing the downstream partnership? Or do you feel the current environment is not optimal, perhaps -- and then secondly, just a question on the Rovuma LNG contingent payment, would FID trigger a receipt of the full contingent consideration within the quarter? And can you clarify the payment lag after FID or any tax reductions that could affect net proceeds?
Thanks, Kate. I'll take the first 1 and Maria will take the second one. So the transaction, and Maria just alluded to that, was a catalyst. It's not our investment pass. So we will continue to offer this distinctive growth story to the market. We know that there is a transformation that will allow us to benefit from scale and competitive on the downstream side. So the transformation will keep on our side. We will be prepared to face potential transactions, but we are not active right now in the market.
To the second part of your question, Kate, yes, indeed, if I recall correctly, this should be a 20 business day Mark, once we get FID. So should it take place within those 20 business days, it will be still in the quarter. Let's see what news we get them on that front. .
Next question comes from Sasikanth Chilukuru from Jefferies.
Now I just wanted to come back to more way and just because previously you've highlighted the proposed satellites help Galp shop in its focus on the upstream and the renewable side. Now if you were to retain full control of these businesses and you said you're not necessarily actively marketing it. I was just wanted to understand how you think about the longer-term strategy for these businesses how do they fit perhaps through your capital allocation priorities as well? You said it remains intact, but I just wanted to see if you can elaborate on what that means and even if you were to retain this full control of these businesses. The second question was going back to the refining outlook. You talked about $20 per barrel right now. Just wondering if you can provide more context on where you're seeing these high refining margins on your outlook, maybe perhaps on a product basis, especially if you could talk about the diesel market that you're seeing right now, how it's kind of shaping up?
Thanks, Sasi. So on the first one, as we know, our commercial business, it's really a cash generator. We have a leadership position in Portugal. And we feel really comfortable with the current situation that we have, though there is a counterpart process that we need to keep going on that. So that's the trend professions that we've been dealing with for the last couple of months, and we will keep doing that to allow us to fully segregate the businesses of commercial and industrial. On the industrial front, as you know, we are in the final ramp-up of the major investments that we are doing in fines, which means that we will be positive cash flow next year. We are in the pre-commissioning phase right now with no major turnarounds planned in 2027. And we did a very interesting environment, as you mentioned. So we have, on your second question, roughly 50% of the Russian refining capacity outside of the market. So we are still observing the mid-distillates in a very, very, well, let's say, tight momentum, and we are benefiting from that. We need to also understand how the freights are pushing up and making additional pressure on the margin. That's why in the beginning of October, we've seen some lower margins. But at this point, we see very sustainable and fundamentals to assume a double-digit margin to 2027 at least the first quarter.
Thank you. The next question comes from Ahmed Ben Salem from ODDO BHF.
It's regarding the Navia drilling program. what are the key objectives and decision point of the upcoming Main drilling company -- and when should we expect sufficiently sufficient visibility on resource and timing. In parallel, what level of capital exposure should we assume across Gap Namibian portfolio over the next 2 to 3 years? And is another farm down part of the strategy?
Thank you, Ahmed. So for Namibia and particularly for open, the next stage is fundamentally 1 of ENA. So all the wells that are expected are, again, going on an objective which hinges fundamentally around derisking the resources and making sure that we are ready to get to do an optimal development concept. So we have very strong alignment with Total on this. So what we're now starting is the E&A campaign. The first Mopane 4x is going to be essentially exploratory we will be developing DSTs in tandem according to results. If you recall, we tapped into the southeast end of the block, but that is 1 of the areas where we clearly see our focus, and that's the this untapped extension is where we're going to be focusing. So our procurement is pretty much in place. We will be starting with the Southeast, looking for derisking and developing the concept. We'll see how it goes. Should we get results that are positive and see good pace. We may choose to drive this back to back, but that's still up for discussion and clearly subject to our results. So let's see how it goes. Let's take 1 drill at the time. So concerning the CapEx level, you will recall that the terms of the carry keeps at only 25%. So again, we will see the pace depending on results and depending on whether or not we'll be deploying DSTs as well. But in any case, at this point is something that will be carried only in 25% by valve. A possible farm down is not something we have on the table right now. We're very focused on developing the concept and delivering first oil -- and we do hold the assets as 1 that we find very positive in our portfolio, so not active right now. Thank you.
Next question today comes from Ignacio Doménech from JB Capital.
The first 1 is on the absolute business. I just wanted to get a sense on the oil discounts in the fourth quarter? What are you seeing so far in bid of October if this should soften a bit versus what we saw in the third quarter, particularly the pressure on enterate is okay? . And my second question is with the shareholder distribution. So you've reiterated that 1/3 of the OCS. Last quarter, you already lifted the cash dividends. So I was wondering on that relationship between the dividends and the buyback of management or the Board views that bulk particularly at the current level of the share price? And if potentially there other options that management may be contemplating in order to create long-term value for shareholders? Thank you,
Thank you, Ignacio. So starting with upstream and what we see in terms of conditions. It has indeed been on quite a floating quarter versus now beginning of October. But all in all, we saw a lot of what's happening with the discounts and the premiums in our Brazilian states very much impacted by what's been happening in terms of Asian demand. We had a pressing third quarter, but right now, we've also seen quite a rebound. So we're again back up to approximately I'd say, about $10 of premium, maybe a bit above that. Well, the complexity is still there, but all in all, what we see is that our Atlantic refiners are favoring a lot of these shorter-haul routes, and that is also weighing in and contributing to this rebound that we see, and we see some ability to sustain that going forward. Freight is also a very strong consideration. And we also saw quite some fluctuation there. So we had usually, we would have our freight, and we're very much on spot. So usually, we would have our freight of the $3 to $4 per barrel. We had quite a bit of a height in October, it went all the way up to the 20s. You know the dynamics there. It has to do with how concentrated the industry is. It has also to do with the fact that Gulf is not yet stable. So there's a lot of redirecting, a lot of very different traffic and movements going on there. That is, to some extent, pressuring the fleet in general and of course, reflecting on an operator such as ourselves that has a significant part of its freight costs in spot. But all in all, we also see some fluctuations there, and we expect conditions to become normalized. So all in all, the premiums in October that we've seen have been compensating by Asia and with less pressure from freight. So all in all we'll be back to the tenders in terms of premiums. In terms of distributions, what I get from your question, the 1/3 distribution policy encompasses the dividends. So the 1/3 meet the annual growth of dividend per share, which we announced in August that we would be growing at 10% per year this year given that the very good performance. So we've already paid out the first part of that 10% growth. We will be paying the next component. And the remainder of that all the way up to the 1/3 will be a decision by the shareholders, and we will be announcing it as results close. So at this stage, the policy holds. The final format of that payment will be up for consideration once we have the final results. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Matt Lofting from JPMorgan..
Two, please. Your commentary seems to suggest that Galp continues to see strategic partnerships as an avenue to unlock value potential, particularly downstream. When you take stock, how has the perception of the merit of the structure been conceptually influenced by the Move process through 2026. And if it's been enhanced under sort of better value parameters and scenarios. Just wondering how you see the way forward from here in terms of NCPS to unlock that. . And then secondly, you mentioned freight cost just now is another area of the value chain that's clearly been volatile in recent weeks and months. But if freight costs were to stay higher, could you just talk about how that impacts a business like Galp in an aggregate sense, perhaps both upstream and downstream.
Matt, thank you for your question. Indeed, it was a long lengthy process within the Movie. And of course, the number of of lessons learned, namely on the carve-out. So it was something very, very important for us. Our teams work together on the segregation from the retail business and the Industrial business. The strategic rationale is still compelling. So we really see ourselves looking forward to a transaction. But at this stage, I would say that no deal is better than a bad deal. And that's how we see it. And we are very confident on the portfolio that we have no pressure whatsoever to have a transaction and the future partnerships needs to have the alignment, the credibility and the transparency that we need to evolve through businesses like the industrial business in Portugal, but also the commercial business.
On freight costs, we continue to operate a portfolio that has both legs to it. So these impacts are twofold in our portfolio, both in terms of refining, but of our oil business. To some extent, there's a little bit of a natural balancing in some of these pressures, and we will continue to look at them as such. Now what we are also considering is options in terms of extending our midterm charters. Current circumstances are such that we will, of course, need to look that in a very disciplined way. It's a very tight market. But we've relied fundamentally on spot tanker markets, and we feel that if pressure in the market continues, it will be worthy assessment towards looking at our current policy and seeing if we can get better terms and continue to weigh these 2 arms in a way that's more balanced and less risk front. Thank you
Thank you. Next question today comes from Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs.
Two remaining questions for me. The first 1 is whether you had any clarity of how the CapEx carry in media will be treated from an accounting perspective, if it ends up being net CapEx that you report, or the whole CapEx and the carry becomes accounted like a loan. Any clarity there would be helpful. And finally, still staying in Namibia, I was just wondering what is left to take the FID in venous, my understanding is there are some tax negotiations going on, but any more clarity there would be very helpful. .
Thank you, Michele. The accounting treatment of the carry terms is not 100% closed. But in principle, the 25% of our carry will be push through cash flow. So take it as ongoing work. But as a reference, concerning the FID in venous. Again, very aligned with Total. We see this as core first development for both ourselves and for the country and for the basin. So we do see constructive progress, but it will be the first instance. So it is particularly relevant that whatever measures are possible towards reinforced visibility are taken from both parties. So there are -- it's clearly on finalized talks. Let's hope that it evolves. This is our expectation that it now comes together and closes soon. In any case, EPC providers have been selected. So the conditions for continued and offers towards continued sound economics are still there. So constructive, complex but we're really hoping on this being the actual finalizing talks for some closure soon. Thank you.
Next question today comes from James Carmichael from Berenberg.
Just a couple left for us. On -- I guess, in the midstream commentary, you referenced legacy sourcing contracts in Africa has been a contributor -- sorry, to the strong results there. Just wondering if you could sort of remind us on what flexibility that gives you? And what sort of -- any sort of numbers around the impact of those contracts? . And then looking at the price lag effect in the Oil Products business, it seemed a bit less obvious in Q3 than it was in Q1. I'm just wondering if you're able to mitigate it or it's just a bit mask because of the strength in the underlying performance in that segment.
Thank you, James. I'll take the first one. Indeed, the African volumes, together with some additional cargoes and some additional volumes that we've delivered in the Iberian market allowed us to increase our results on the midstream. It's also important also to analyze that the venture global contract represents additional cargoes also from the U.S. So that's also an important factor to leverage the results in the quarter and on the 9 months up to now. And of course, we are looking into flexibility, additional flexibility, and we will not underestimate the opportunity even to negotiate additional volumes from the African countries. So that's something that we believe we can do along the side of the number of years, same years now that we've been with these parties. So that's a reference that we should also take with us.
James, let me pick up on the price lag effect. So indeed only an accounting effect, not cash, so I'm sure you are well aware of. no major changes. So we do have accounting mismatches between how we price sales versus how we price the cost of the sales but we've gone through some of those effects already in the first quarter. And at this moment, we are eroding some of those effects and now continuing to experience them as markets continue to have significant volatilities, but nothing major there, no changes in those accounting effects. And as you well put it, a little bit of it has been, to some extent, being absorbed by the business and by the natural good performance of the business. So nothing striking there. Thank you. .
We will now take our last question. Last question today is from Naish Cui from Barclays.
My first question is on the full year refining margin guidance around $25 per barrel. If my math is right, the new guidance implies more than $30 per barrel margin for Q4. I wonder if you could share some of the assumptions there placed just for Q4, including some shipping cost levels? And then my second question is on Brazil. Given your significant Brazil exposure, I wonder, has anything changed in how you assess the physical and regulatory risk and allocating the incremental capital to Brazil versus other part of the portfolio?
Thank you, Naish. So not much to be said in terms of full year refining margin. It has been a bumpy ride, but now what we're fundamentally looking at forward. So we do see some rebounds. And as you well put it, it's been a year with quite some fluctuations, but we see that within the performance that we've been achieving so far. So we should have comfortable numbers throughout the end of the year as the third quarter has demonstrated. . So on Brazil, we've been in Brazil long term, right? So we've been in Brazil throughout many different stages in their political panorama. We don't comment on any political or elective results. We continue to have open dialogues with all the relevant authorities, both within the industry context and as -- and with our partners. We believe that Brazil is very much aware of the fact that continued investment will be critical to develop its resources. So open dialogue on the impact of fiscal stability and clear rules towards management of international investments are, of course, differential, and we seek those out. But in any case, we have been through many different stages in Brazil. We see ourselves as being in Brazil for the long term. we have positive relationships and have always been able to engage in productive dialogue. So we will continue to do so and are confident that it will continue to be a powerful growth engine for us. Thank you.
Thank you. And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating, and you may now disconnect.
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