Aegis Logistics Limited (AEGISLOG) Earnings Call Transcript

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Earnings Call of Aegis Logistics Limited Q3 and 9 Months FY '26 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. Before we begin the call, I would like to give a short disclaimer. This call may contain some forward-looking statements, which are completely based upon our beliefs and expectations as of today. The statements are not the guarantee of future performance and involve unforeseen risks and uncertainties. With this, I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Raj Chandaria for his opening remarks. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Thank you very much, and welcome to our Q3 FY '26 conference call. This evening, I'm joined by our CFO, Mr. Murad Moledina; and Ms. Payal Dave from our Investor Relations team. And we appreciate you taking the time to join us today to review the company's performance and discuss our ongoing strategic developments. We're pleased to share that the company continues to maintain its strong growth trajectory, which is underpinned by expanding volumes and enhanced operating performance. For the 9 months FY '26, we have once again delivered a record performance, achieving all-time high revenue and EBITDA in the Liquids division along with record EBITDA in the Gas division, which was driven by the highest ever volumes in the Logistics and Distribution business. In the 9 months ended 31st December 2025, revenue from operations reached INR 5,739 crores, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth. Normalized EBITDA for the period stood at INR 929 crores, making a robust 26% increase over the previous year. Profit after tax rose 39% to INR 652 crores compared to INR 470 crores in the 9 months ended FY '25. During third quarter of FY '26, our consolidated revenues stood at INR 1,725 crores with a normalized EBITDA showing a robust 29% increase, rising from INR 252 crores to INR 326 crores. And profit after tax also grew sharply by 45%, moving from INR 160 crores to INR 233 crores. This performance highlights the benefits of operating leverage and a strong product mix across our terminals. And at the same time, the company remains firmly fixed on optimizing costs and enhancing throughput through our ports, ensuring that our growth momentum continues. We've also effectively utilized the IPO proceeds and paid down the outstanding debt during the financial year. So I'll now take you through the key operational and project updates port by port to give you a comprehensive overview of the ongoing infrastructure development at Aegis Logistics Limited. At Mumbai port, we continue to operate at higher utilization levels and leverage our infrastructure and operational capacity. Our liquid storage capacity stands at 334,000 kiloliters, supported by a static LPG capacity of 21,000 metric tons. In line with our growth plans, an additional 64,000 kiloliters of liquid capacity is under development at a project cost of INR 125 crores as previously discussed. And I'm pleased to report that work on this new capacity is progressing steadily and remains on track with commissioning targeted for first quarter FY '27. At the JNPT port, our operational liquid capacity stands at 101,900 cubic meters with an average realization improving due to a better product mix. In addition to this, we are developing a 318,100 cubic meter capacity of new liquid capacity with [ 77,286 ] metric tons of LPG capacity, further expanding our footprint. An LPG bottling plant with a capacity of 35,000 metric tons is also under construction. And this -- the overall project with a planned CapEx of INR 1,675 crores is progressing well, and the first phase of the new liquids capacity at JNPA is expected to be commissioned in the first quarter of FY '27. And to further strengthen our presence on the West Coast, we are evaluating the addition of an additional 36,000 metric ton cryogenic gas tank. At the Kandla port, our liquid capacity stands at 952,276 cubic meters, while gas capacity is at 48,000 metric tons. The port is operating at improved utilization levels, reflecting stronger demand and efficiency. Work on the Jamnagar-Loni LPG pipeline is in full swing and just a month away from operationalization with the Kandla-Gorakhpur LPG pipeline connection expected to be completed by June of 2026, this is our latest update, both of which will drive significant volume. The VLGC berth at Kandla became operational in the third quarter. And on the final day of 2025, the port received its first ever VLGC vessel, officially establishing Kandla as a VLGC compliant facility. Now this development, along with the commissioning of the 2 pipelines, is expected to significantly enhance volumes at this port. In addition, a 94,148 cubic meter liquid terminal is planned at the CRL-4 plot and is expected to be operational next year. As you are already aware, we have also signed a nonbinding memorandum of understanding with Larsen & Toubro to develop an ammonia terminal for their upcoming green ammonia project at Kandla, further strengthening our growth pipeline and strategic partnership. At Kochi Port, our liquid capacity stands at 82,000 cubic meters, operating at high utilization levels as well. And in our previous calls, we had shared plans for developing an additional 60,000 cubic meters of liquid capacity on newly alloted land, and I'm pleased to announce that this development is now underway. And of course, it will increase the capacity to meet the future demand that we expect. At Pipavav, our liquid capacity stands at 116,620 cubic meters, complemented by an LPG capacity of 70,800 metric tons and an ammonia capacity of 36,202 metric tons. The liquid terminal at Pipavav continues to operate at very high utilization levels, catering to demand across Western India. This port has a very strategic importance in the portfolio for us. It has world-class infrastructure to handle LPG via the VLGC jetty. We have cryogenic tanks. We have a bottling plant. We have an LPG rail gantry and 16 loading bays for efficient road evacuation and Central India pipeline connection. The port is also working on establishing a new VLGC-compliant jetty, which is -- construction is underway and is expected to be completed in this calendar year. And we are now in the process of developing world-class infrastructure in the liquid business as well to cater to a large Indian and global conglomerates. In that context, we have entered into a 15-year long-term take-or-pay contract with a large conglomerate for handling their petroleum products at Pipavav. And under this arrangement, the Aegis Vopak Terminals, our subsidiary, will manage over 0.5 million metric tons annually at the end of this calendar year, providing strong volume visibility and reinforcing our position as a reliable logistics partner for one of India's largest energy conglomerates. Construction of India's first independent ammonia terminal with a static capacity of 36,000 metric tons is progressing well and is expected to be completed before the first quarter of the next fiscal year. At Mangalore port, the LPG terminal with 82,000 metric tons of static capacity was successfully commissioned in June of '25, and the port currently has a liquid capacity of 194,382 cubic meters. And looking ahead, plans are underway to add a further 60,000 cubic meters of liquids on some newly allotted land as part of the next phase of development. In Haldia port, one of the key strategic developments in this fiscal year has been the completion of AVTL's acquisition of a 75% stake in Hindustan Aegis LPG Limited from Aegis Gas LPG Private Limited and from Vopak India, resulting in Hindustan Aegis LPG Limited becoming a subsidiary of AVTL. This acquisition sort of transfers 25,000 metric tons of LPG storage capacity at Haldia to AVTL, cementing AVTL's position in the East Coast market. Our liquid capacity at this port stands at 226,890 cubic meters alongside the gas capacity of 25,000 and operations continue at a high utilization level, reflecting consistent demand. And we have recently acquired an additional 3 acres of land in Haldia to support the expansion of liquids at this port. The LPG terminal is performing well and the utilization continuing to increase steadily. In the month of December, we achieved the highest throughput ever at this port. As far as new ports are concerned, we are actively pursuing expansion at 2 new locations. We have entered into a nonbinding memorandum of understanding for potential investment of around INR 20,000 crores in the proposed Vadhavan port. We await the land development and formal approvals. Once these are in place, we plan to initiate the development of a new gas and liquid complex at these sites. Now with that overall perspective, I will now hand over to our CFO, Mr. Murad Moledina, to present the detailed financial highlights.

Thank you, Mr. Raj. So Aegis Logistics Limited, together with Aegis Vopak Terminals is expected to reach an aggregate capital expenditure outlay of USD 1.2 billion by next year. Looking further ahead, we have laid out a long-term CapEx road map of USD 5 billion by 2030. All investments will continue to be funded through a balanced mix of internal accruals, prudent debt, ensuring financial discipline. We remain committed to maintaining a conservative debt gearing ratio of 0.6x with an overall leverage capped at 3.5x EBITDA. Coming to the operational parameters of the business. Profitability of both the segments, LPG and Liquid, performed -- demonstrated strong growth in 9 months FY '26. For the 9 months ended 31st December 2025, revenue from operations reached INR 5,739 crores, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth. Normalized EBITDA for 9 months stood at INR 929 crores, registering a strong 26% increase compared to the previous year. Profit after tax rose handsomely by 39% to INR 652 crores, up from INR 470 crores in 9 months of the previous year. For the quarter, revenue from operations is INR 1,725 crores. Normalized EBITDA for Q3 FY '26 stood at INR 326 crores, making a strong 29% growth compared to the last year. Profit after tax for the third quarter stood at INR 233 crores, reflecting a 45% year-on-year increase. Now coming on to the individual segments. For the 9 months ended 31st December 2025, Liquid revenue reached INR 460 crores, a 13% increase from INR 408 crores in 9 months of last year. Liquid's EBITDA stood at INR 346 crores, marking a 17% year-on-year growth. LPG business revenue rose 15% to INR 5,279 crores and gas EBITDA grew by 31% to INR 582 crores, once again propelled by record logistics and distribution volumes. Looking at the 9 months performance, LPG volumes handled across terminals totaled 3.93 million tonnes, up 19% from 3.3 million tonnes in the 9 months period of the previous year. Distribution volumes expanded by 35%, reaching 5.2 lakh metric tons compared to 3.85 lakh metric tons last year. Sourcing sales volume stood at 4.78 lakh metric tons, reflecting a 4% increase over the previous 9 months period. In Q3 FY '26, Liquid revenue stood at INR 161 crores, up 19% from INR 135 crores in Q3 FY '25. Liquid's EBITDA came in at INR 124 crores, reflecting a 31% year-on-year growth. Segment EBITDA margin expanded by 674 bps to 77%, supported by favorable mix towards higher realization products. LPG business reported a revenue of INR 1,564 crores, while gas EBITDA surged 30% to INR 202 crores, the highest ever for the third quarter, driven by record volumes in logistics and distribution. In the third quarter of FY '26, we have delivered an all-time Q3 throughput volumes marking the second highest in our operating history. LPG volumes handled across terminals stood at 1.36 million tonnes compared to 1.22 million tonnes in Q3 FY '25, an increase of 11%. Our distribution volumes in auto, commercial and industrial bulk grew sharply by 44%, reaching record Q3 levels of 1.83 lakh metric tons versus 1.27 lakh metric tons last year. Sourcing sales volume also registered growth, rising 7% to 1.51 lakh metric tons compared to 1.4 lakh metric tons in the same quarter of FY '25. Overall, the company's financial position remains robust, supported by low debt, strong cash flow and a solid balance sheet. With this, I hand over this line to the moderator to start the question-and-answer session.

[Operator Instructions]. The first question comes from the line of Vibhav Zutshi from JPMorgan.

Congratulations on the strong quarter. First question is on the KGPL pipeline time line. Sir, what is the confidence that this will get commissioned by June because there have been some news flow about some challenges in respect to land compensation. So yes, I mean, we were expecting it to get commissioned by March and now the time line is June. So just some thoughts on your confidence level.

So we have been given to understand that most of the 3,900 kilometer pipeline is done, except for the last 8 to 12 kilometers, which is underway. Work is currently on. So we expect and there's reasonable confidence that by June, it should get operationalized. We believe in some stages, even gas fill has happened, mainly, I think, Kandla, Ahmedabad, so to say. So it's there, almost the last bit is left. This is why we said June and not April or March because just keeping in mind some contingency, June appears to be fairly realistic as of now.

Okay. Got it. And just a follow-up question on the LPG imports. So if I look at the ministry data now, it looks like October to December was down. This could be largely led by base of last year because December has now seen again a pickup. But in general, if I look at the YTD number, it looks like LPG imports have slowed a little bit to just around 8%. So any thoughts on why this November data was a bit slow and how you're generally expecting the next few months going forward?

No, I think it's quite robust, and 8% is what you are saying is a growth, right, year-to-date. Yes. So that's [indiscernible]. We expect around 8% to 10% import growth. And if you look at H1, it's already up than last year's H1. And yes, of course, month-on-month, it's not spread evenly. So there's inventory management and it all depends on stock management, et cetera, by the oil companies. But if you look at year-to-year data, yes, it's quite good. We don't see any downside as far as imports is concerned even for the current year. Sorry, on top of that, it all then boils down to what about our terminals. So like you can see, we are growing our logistics volume quarter-on-quarter if you compare year-on-year. So we are fairly good -- in a good space.

Sure, sure. That's very comforting. And just a second question, if you can just highlight -- broadly guide to CapEx for FY '26 and FY '27, maybe just at a ballpark.

We have said on record that by FY '27, we should reach INR 10,000 crores gross CapEx. We are already at INR 5,000 crores, currently around INR 3,500 crores sort of projects are underway. So we should reach by FY '27, somewhere close to INR 10,000 crores, which is what we have been saying $1.2 billion.

Our next question comes from the line of Neelotpal Sahu from JM Financial.

I wanted to understand, can you give us some color on how is the LPG versus CNG price differential going on currently? And what does the near-term outlook look like in terms of distribution volumes?

So Neelotpal, we remain with the cost advantage versus NG. And I can tell you January volumes are also very healthy. And we don't expect any difference than what we have been doing in previous quarters. The advantage remains. You see month-on-month pricing is not so important because it all depends on when the cargo has been brought in. It is assumed that all cargo will be from Middle East. It is assumed that all the cargo will be priced at M minus 1. However, because we are vertically integrated, we have got a lot of flexibility about when to import, where from to import. We have already started importing from U.S.A., lots of ships have already come. So it's becoming now a balance between LPG coming from America and LPG coming from Middle East, whether we want to import, hold, sell next month or we import and sell in the same month. So there is a huge amount of flexibility that we have versus else. So we remain confident on the volumes growing every quarter as well as on our margins. There is nothing as on date different.

Got it. So how much is now U.S. contributing to, say, our volume share and like it is the price discount that we get if we import from the U.S.

It's not a question of discount. It's a question of pricing. So the pricing of American LPG cargo is different. It doesn't follow Saudi CP. So we get some discount probably than the Saudi CP. It's $10, $15 or more cheaper at the end if you look at the net price.

Our next question comes from the line of [indiscernible], NM Capital Advisors. [Operator Instructions].

Aegis Vopak Terminals and Aegis Logistics together will achieve a capital expenditure outlay of $1.2 billion with a long-term plan to reach around $5 billion by 2030. So can you share the path to $1.2 billion first? And where do you see incremental CapEx potential in existing and new ports, products, et cetera?

So if you look at my asset, the gross asset stands at around INR 6,000 crores. I've already -- we are already executing projects of INR 1,675 crores at JNPA, and we are doing another INR 200 crores odd at Kandla. We have just announced additional liquid capacity at Mangalore, Pipavav, Kochi. We are also doing a INR 525 crore project of ammonia at Pipavav. So all of this gives a signal that we are on course to reach INR 10,000 crores CapEx by FY '27, which is $1.2 billion.

Okay. Understood. And at that scale, just wanted to understand how will our revenue and EBITDA look like?

So it depends on how soon the assets mature in terms of utilization, that is gas. Liquids are, of course, from day 1, 100%. So depending on how quickly the assets mature, let's say, after 6 months or so, we expect to earn 25% kind of an EBITDA out of the assets that we put up. That's the general thumb rule that we expect.

Okay. And also, if you can provide some color on the India's deal with U.S. for LPG import. How do you see the benefits to Aegis? What are the costing variances and where shipping from Middle East is, which is our main market versus, say, U.S. or Canada because that they would require VLGC, I assume?

So we are based in -- all our terminals based in ports are now VLGC compliant. That's number one. So we can take the ships coming from U.S. Number two, the deal with U.S. by government is commercial. It's not a country-to-country deal. It's that they would purchase -- they have started purchasing LPG from America just like we are doing. So we also have opportunity to buy LPG, and we have been doing it month-on-month maybe last 4 months or 6 months. Getting cargoes from America also, getting cargoes from Middle East also depending on the value proposition that it brings to us.

Understood. And can you help me with our gas and liquid realizations for this particular quarter and 9 months?

So we, on a consolidated basis, have 2 million CBM liquid space. So you divide the quarter revenue by 2 million and multiply by 4, that will give you the yearly realizations. Similarly, if you look at logistics, throughput. So that gives you somewhere around INR 1,100 as revenue. So you have the volumes of logistics, you can multiply by INR 1,100. And then if you want the EBITDA, we have always said distribution EBITDA between INR 3,500 to INR 4,000. So that will give you the math.

Got it. And lastly, liquid margins expanded this quarter, like you highlighted in the speech. I want to check what is the sustainable margins for this segment? And is there further scope of margin expansion due to the product mix?

Yes, it is there. And this is sustainable margin. The increase is sustainable because of the product mix as well as the location. So as we will build liquid capacities in locations which have higher realization because we are in huge consumption zone like Mumbai or JNPA, it will give higher revenues, which will pull up the average realization on a consolidated basis. Also, when we keep changing product mix, that will also provide the increase in average realization. So both are happening. But the locations where capacities are coming up are high realization locations, and also the new capacities that are coming up are also for more complex products. So those also give you higher realizations. I think going forward, the realizations will see only a way up in that sense. It will keep improving, hopefully, quarter-on-quarter.

Our next question comes from the line of Vishal Mehta from IIFL Capital.

Congratulations on continued strong set of numbers from your end, especially on the liquid storage and the distribution front. My question first would be on this 15-year take-or-pay contract, which you've signed with this large conglomerate for storing petroleum products at Pipavav. For this, will we have to build more capacity or we replace some of our existing low realization volumes with this customer? Because this, I guess, will block probably around 50,000 CBM of our capacity, which is around 40%, 50% of our existing capacity at the port. So yes, I just wanted to check on that.

Yes, you're right. We'll be replacing and there will be no immediate addition to the liquid storage capacity. You are aware that Pipavav was the -- in case of liquid only, not LPG. But in liquid, Pipavav lagged behind in terms of realizations. So now this will change completely. We are also building, for this purpose, liquid rail gantry. So that, in addition to whatever we have already agreed upon, will also open doors for more such products, which we will move in case of liquid. So at that time, if there is a demand rush, maybe we may have to build more capacity for which, of course, land is there with us, and it can be done very quickly. So yes, this is the turning point as far as liquid business is concerned in Pipavav. We're very excited, very happy that this has finally happened.

Sir, realization for petroleum would be in the range of INR 300, INR 400 per month?

Absolutely, yes.

Okay. And sir, on our JNPT, we said that first phase will commission by 1Q FY '27. How much of that would be of that INR 300, INR 320.

Maybe 25%, 30%.