Home / Transcripts / BSR Real Estate Investment Trust (HOMUN) · May 14, 2026

BSR Real Estate Investment Trust (HOMUN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

May 14, 2026

Toronto Stock Exchange CA Real Estate Residential REITs earnings 35 min

What were the key takeaways from BSR Real Estate Investment Trust's May 14, 2026 earnings call?

In the first quarter of 2026, BSR Real Estate Investment Trust reported a sequential improvement in financial performance, signaling a potential turning point for the company. Revenue from Same Community properties decreased by 1.6% year-over-year, but Same Community NOI increased by 11% sequentially to $14.1 million. Management maintained its full-year FFO guidance of $0.75 to $0.79 per unit, indicating confidence in continued growth despite a challenging rental environment.

What topics did BSR Real Estate Investment Trust cover?

What were BSR Real Estate Investment Trust's May 14, 2026 results?

BSR REIT's first-quarter results indicate a positive shift in operational momentum, although challenges remain in leasing rates and market dynamics. Investors should monitor the company's progress in achieving its guidance and the impact of external market conditions on occupancy and rental rates as potential catalysts or risks.

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator operator
#1

Good morning, everyone. I'm Regina, and I'll be serving as your conference coordinator for today. Right now, I'd like to welcome all of you to the BSR REIT First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. <<operator_script>> At this point, I'll hand the conference over to Spencer Andrews, Vice President of Investor Relations and Marketing. Please go ahead, sir.

Spencer Andrews executive
#2

Thanks, and good morning to all of you. It's a pleasure to welcome you to the BSR REIT conference call, where we'll be going over the financial results we posted for the first quarter, which ended March 31, 2026. On the line with me today are Dan Oberste, our CEO; Tom Cirbus, our Chief Financial Officer; and Susie Rosenbaum, our Chief Operating Officer — all three of them will be on hand to take your questions once our prepared remarks are done. Before we get started, I'd like to remind everyone listening that some of the statements we make on this call regarding future events are forward-looking by their nature. All such information carries risks, uncertainties and assumptions that might lead actual results to come out materially different. We'll also be citing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which we consider to be helpful supplemental information regarding how our financial performance looks. For further details, please see the cautionary statements on forward-looking information and the description of our non-GAAP financial measures contained in our news release and MD&A dated May 13, 2026. Dan, the floor is yours.

Daniel Oberste executive
#3

Thanks, Spencer. We see the first quarter as the start of a stretch of considerable momentum for BSR REIT. Both our same-community NOI and our NOI margins improved on a sequential basis versus the fourth quarter of 2025, and we have made headway toward stabilizing our 2025 acquisition class, including additional lease-up at the Ownsby, the lease-up acquisition we made in August 2025. We are also continuing to build out our bulk Internet and valet trash programs, 2 important engines of organic growth. And on the external side, rental market conditions moved even more in our favor. Looking back at the first quarter, Same Community NOI rose 11% compared with Q4 last year, mainly because expenses normalized after having an outsized negative effect on Q4 of last year. Same Community weighted average occupancy finished the quarter at 94.3%, unchanged from the close of 2025. Same Community blended rates gained 30 basis points in Q1 versus Q4. I would also note that this pattern carried into April, with another 80 basis points of improvement relative to Q1 results. Our retention rate came in at 59.8% at quarter end, a 30 basis point increase over the end of 2025 and a substantial rise from 56.9% a year earlier. Physical occupancy at our August 2025 lease-up hit 73.1% at the end of March, climbing from 70.4% at the end of December.

Daniel Oberste executive
#4

And importantly, we started ramping up bulk Internet in earnest at 5 of our properties, and that's already producing positive results in our other income line item. What we reported last night mirrors precisely the momentum we described last quarter and highlights the fundamental shift we're seeing in our business. I'll remind everyone that our December investor presentation laid out our organic growth plans and gave transparency on them. Yesterday's results also show those returns are in the very early innings. There's still plenty of upside in each initiative we laid out, but I'm proud of the tangible progress we've achieved so far. Even more encouraging, fundamentals keep improving in our core markets. Trade-outs improved again year-over-year and have shown largely positive momentum. Frankly, May and June will tell us much more about the exact extent of the multifamily market's health. But as we sit here today, we're generally encouraged by the results so far. With our hand-selected high-quality portfolio, our value-adding lease-up and our operational enhancement initiatives, and a total absence of debt or swap maturities this year, we're in an ideal position to drive growth on a per unit basis as market conditions steadily improve.

Daniel Oberste executive
#5

We'll continue doing what we've always done—concentrating on the things within our control and deploying capital prudently wherever it can be put to its best use, so that we generate the strongest returns we can. At this point I'll turn things over to Tom, who will walk us through the first quarter's financial results in greater detail. Tom?

Thomas Cirbus executive
#6

Thanks, Dan. In Q1, our operations performed in line with what we had anticipated. And as Dan pointed out, they showed meaningful gains when measured against the prior quarter. Of course, that sequential rate of progress will naturally decelerate, but we believe this favorable trajectory will carry on as we continue executing the lease-up and operational upgrades we've covered in detail before. Starting with leasing. During the quarter, effective rates on new leases came in 5.4% lower, whereas renewals rose 2.3%, which netted out to a blended rate decrease of 1.0%. Versus the fourth quarter, that amounted to a 30-basis-point gain in the blended rate. For additional context, blended rates on a year-over-year basis were better by 220 basis points. In the same vein, our April 2026 rates came in 80 basis points higher than our April 2025 results. That factor, together with a number of other operational metrics, leaves us confident that rates are broadly trending favorably, particularly when set against last year's operating conditions. Same Community revenue ended up 1.6% lower than Q1 of last year, chiefly because of the reduced average occupancy and the reduced average monthly in-place leases I just mentioned. The decline in rental income was partly offset by a $0.2 million rise in other property income, which came from greater utility reimbursements and the start of our bulk internet rollout.

Thomas Cirbus executive
#7

For Q1 '26, Same Community NOI came in at $14.1 million, which is down 4.7% versus last year but up 11% on a sequential basis from Q4. The drop compared with a year ago stemmed from the lower revenue I just walked through, plus a $0.2 million rise in utility expenses and $0.3 million more in overhead and administrative costs tied to our strategic choice to keep overhead in place. Those factors were partly offset by a $0.2 million reduction in property insurance expenses. Importantly, the sequential gain came mainly from expense levels normalizing in the first quarter after the confluence of anomalies we dealt with on the expense side in the fourth quarter. To put it more directly, real estate taxes got better as our typical refund levels came back, along with improvements in turn and repair and maintenance costs driven by higher retention flow through, as well as lower administrative and utility expenses. One quick side note before I move on: since quarter-over-quarter movement in our taxes has historically been hard to decipher, on our financials we've tried to boost transparency in our MD&A this year by breaking out refunds as a separate line item in the disclosure package. Hopefully this change lets all stakeholders better appreciate and explain the quarterly changes in this key figure.

Thomas Cirbus executive
#8

Moving past NOI, G&A expense rose by $0.4 million compared with a year earlier, mainly from greater legal and professional fees along with payroll costs. On a sequential basis, G&A came in essentially flat. Lastly, net finance costs fell by $1.2 million versus the prior year, largely tied to the 2025 strategic disposition of assets. Taken as a whole, FFO for Q1 '26 climbed 29% to $0.18 per unit, versus $0.14 per unit during the fourth quarter. I'm pleased to say the 2025 asset rotations keep building momentum and now are accretive relative to the dispositions we made during the year; even though our August lease-up acquisition is sitting at essentially breakeven with only 73% physical occupancy, the contribution to our results from the 2025 acquisitions cohort should only strengthen through the remainder of 2026. The decline in FFO per unit versus a year ago came mainly from 3 items: borrowing costs that were $0.03 per unit higher, weaker Same Community results of $0.01 per unit, and G&A that was $0.01 per unit higher. Sequentially, Same Community gains contributed $0.03 per unit and non-Same Community contributed close to $0.02, partly offset by $0.01 tied to borrowing cost headwinds. AFFO came to $0.17 per unit in the first quarter, 55% above the $0.11 per unit recorded in Q4.

Thomas Cirbus executive
#9

Obviously, the quarter-over-quarter gains are very encouraging and show the momentum we have in generating organic growth. Turning to the balance sheet: as of March 31, '26, the REIT's debt-to-gross book value stood at 52%, versus 51.2% at the close of 2025. That works out to $738 million in outstanding debt, carrying a weighted average interest rate of 4.1% and a weighted average term to maturity of 3.7 years. Liquidity totaled $67.3 million at quarter end, which includes $7.4 million in cash and cash equivalents plus $59.9 million available under our revolving credit facility. And as always, we can secure extra liquidity by adding unencumbered properties to the facility's current borrowing base. On March 10, 2026, we refinanced the $28 million mortgage onto the REIT's credit facility, and consequently the REIT has no 2026 maturities left. Importantly, after quarter end, we locked in the REIT's cost of credit for the remainder of 2026 through a $175 million swap, which amended 2 previously outstanding swaps at a rate of 2.98%. Lastly, as you probably know, we are reiterating the original 2026 earnings and same-community portfolio guidance we gave in March.

Thomas Cirbus executive
#10

For the full year, we're looking at FFO per unit between $0.75 and $0.79, which is $0.77 per unit at the midpoint, and AFFO per unit of $0.68 to $0.74, or $0.71 per unit at the midpoint. This outlook assumes Same Community revenue growth of 50 to 150 basis points, Same Community property operating expense and real estate tax growth of 100 to 200 basis points, which works out to Same Community NOI growth of 0 to 100 basis points. Our expectation remains that the core real estate business will stay healthy, as we keep growing revenue through lease-up activity, along with some modest added overhead costs. We'll revise this guidance as necessary over the course of the year. At this point, I'll hand it back to Dan for his closing remarks.

Daniel Oberste executive
#11

Thanks, Tom. Our outlook on the business is getting more and more encouraging. The asset rotations we finished in the prior year, plus the stabilization work that followed, clearly introduced volatility into our near-term financial results, yet they leave us in a competitive position that keeps getting stronger, so we can capitalize on favorable rental market fundamentals. As is clear, over the past 2 years the emphasis has been on the added multifamily apartment supply within the Texas Triangle. Absorption took longer than we had hoped, but here is where things stand today. New apartment deliveries, after peaking in 2024, fell by 25% to 50% of last year in Austin, Dallas and Houston. Deliveries are forecast to fall in 2026 by another 43% in Austin, close to 30% in Dallas and 7% in Houston. In Austin, a further 40% decline is anticipated in 2027. Very little new product is on the way, and development costs are high, which almost guarantees we will not see a surprising wave of new construction. Demand, at the same time, remains very robust. Among all MSAs in the United States, our 3 Texas markets have ranked among the leaders in absorbing supply. Their economies are strong and housing is highly affordable, and that has turned them into magnets for migrants from other states and other countries.

Daniel Oberste executive
#12

During 2025, no state gained more new inhabitants than Texas. We've seen especially robust population increases among people aged 20 to 34, and that group rents at a higher rate than any other demographic. As you may remember, in December we introduced a strategy aimed at generating additional organic growth in FFO per unit of roughly $0.13 to $0.22 between 2026 and 2028. That strategy is fully on schedule. Every one of these efforts stands completely apart from developments in our wider rental markets. Pairing them with the expected recovery in rental rates, driven by supply-demand fundamentals that are improving quickly, we think we're positioned to deliver quite powerful returns for unitholders. That wraps up our prepared comments this morning. Tom, Susie and I would be glad to take your questions now. Please open the line for questions.

Operator operator
#13

<<operator_script>> The initial question is going to be asked by Jimmy Shan from RBC Capital Markets.

Khing Shan analyst
#14

Let me ask about the lease spreads. Regarding that sequential improvement you're seeing, would you characterize it as exceeding the usual seasonal bump that comes as you head into the spring leasing season, and are you actually witnessing gains in market rents? That's my first question. Then second is the retention rate. Did it hold up through April, and what are your expectations looking toward the summer?

Susie Rosenbaum executive
#15

Yeah. Jimmy, so first, let’s discuss the trade-outs for April compared with the close of Q1. You’re right, the blended rate rose 80%. We believe that’s a genuine return to seasonality. You can also — well, May so far is holding up at roughly the same level. Your second question was about — what was your second question, sorry? Oh, retention.

Khing Shan analyst
#16

On the retention rate — yes, that's right.

Susie Rosenbaum executive
#17

About 60%, right around the close of Q1. What we see today is pretty much the same. So what's driving that? Essentially, fewer residents are leaving to purchase houses. The figures on this front look fairly strong. At the close of Q1 it stood at roughly 11.6%, versus 12.1% in Q4, and 14% during Q1 of 2025. If folks can't manage a home purchase and either must rent or prefer to keep renting — right — they've got a few options. They can bear the expense of relocating, or remain where they are provided they're happy with the services being delivered. I believe our teams, our operations groups, are genuinely skilled at providing outstanding service, so residents are picking to remain with us.

Khing Shan analyst
#18

Okay, sorry — those figures you mentioned a moment ago, 11.6% compared with 12.1%, could you go over that again? That's the share of tenants who leave in order to purchase a home.

Susie Rosenbaum executive
#19

Transitioning now toward purchasing residences.

Operator operator
#20

The next question is going to come from Brad Sturges at Raymond James.

Brad Sturges analyst
#21

To build on what Jimmy asked, you sound cautiously optimistic regarding the demand trends you're seeing. How are things trending in this year compared with what you would have seen last year? And then perhaps a broader remark about which markets are showing somewhat better demand trends at present. Given what you're doing on the rate side, it seems like it might be Dallas, but I'm curious to hear your thoughts.

Daniel Oberste executive
#22

Brad, it's Dan here. I've witnessed quite a few of these leasing seasons and cycles, especially in Texas. And honestly, I'd characterize the previous 2 years as somewhat anomalous. So 2 years back, as everybody remembers, we experienced an enormous spring leasing season across the whole sector, and we observed a substantial volume of absorption. That genuinely left everyone in the industry feeling quite optimistic regarding lease-ups. Then when you get to last year, a different odd thing took place — you had quite a surge during January and February, and it appeared to be an extremely encouraging leasing season. And then, I suppose you could set your watch by the tariff day, or whatever the label is here in the U.S. But truly, immediately afterward — what is it called? Liberation Day, I believe that's the term they used on FOX News — right after that Liberation Day hit, I think what all of us witnessed across the sector amounted to a huge chilling impact on the leasing season, correct? And we all observed what unfolded last year. My view is that those last 2 years were not normal. We have never encountered leasing seasons resembling the last 2 years, each extreme in its own distinct way.

Daniel Oberste executive
#23

You're right to call it cautiously optimistic, I think, since what we see at the moment resembles a typical leasing season. The velocity of leasing, asking rents, effective rents — all of it appears very predictable. For the roughly 17.5% of our apartments that either renew or lease during this Q2, we're observing conventional and favorable momentum. So as of today, we see no signs of either extreme. That leaves us feeling fairly cautiously optimistic, I'd say, about how our same-store portfolio will perform as we look ahead over the remainder of the year.

Brad Sturges analyst
#24

That's great. And I suppose my second question is this: I really appreciate the detail on the real estate tax and the way the refunds were broken out. Just to remind you, when you issue the guidance ranges, how are refunds factored into that guidance? Are they included, or would it be — depending on how those refunds arrive, would that be incremental to the guidance?

Thomas Cirbus executive
#25

Yes. No, Brad, it's in there — this is Tom. That's part of the guidance. As we often mention, property taxes in Texas amount to close-quarters combat annually. During budgeting and while formulating our guidance at the start of the year, we rely heavily on outside specialists — the consultants who assist us in litigating taxes, pursuing refunds, and their estimate of where we expect to end up — and then we draw on our 30 years of operational experience to make a judgment call regarding what we consider a realistic and actionable outcome, and we budget and guide on that basis. So all of that is reflected in the guidance.

Operator operator
#26

The next person to ask something is Jonathan Kelcher from TD Cowen.

Jonathan Kelcher analyst
#27

Regarding that $0.13 to $0.22 you're expecting across the coming 3 years, how much of it — or any portion at all — showed up in Q1? Also, could you remind us of your expectations for 2026 and '27?

Susie Rosenbaum executive
#28

Absolutely. Let's begin with the non-same-store portfolio. It appears we leased an additional 70 to 80 units in Q1 following Q4, and that produced roughly $100,000 in extra revenue. Keep in mind, that isn't the fully loaded figure — why? Since leasing happens across the quarter. So those added units ought to bring in a bit more than $300,000 during Q2 and in subsequent quarters. You also need to keep in mind that we'll keep leasing as the year progresses. Another element is our August acquisition, which is currently in lease-up. We closed the quarter at 73% physical occupancy. We anticipate that property will be physically stabilized by July at the latest. That's physical stabilization, though. After that we'll still be burning off concessions — the second bite of the apple, so to speak. So that will take place over the coming year as well before that asset reaches true stabilization. And then there's bulk internet. There you have it. We brought online the first 5 that we launched in 2025. As I've mentioned previously, in Q1 there's essentially no revenue contribution there since we're in the ramp-up phase. Still, by year-end, we'd anticipate a net $400,000 of additional revenue in 2026 tied to the bulk internet project.

Susie Rosenbaum executive
#29

And as I mentioned on our previous call as well, though, for those assets we're bringing online this year, we're going to recognize 70% of total realization, with the rest of the portfolio coming in 2027 and then the tail end of it during the first quarter of 2028.

Jonathan Kelcher analyst
#30

All right. So it seems like there isn't a huge amount so far, and that's going to keep growing, with a larger share — I suppose the largest share — arriving in the following year. Is that a fair way to put it?

Susie Rosenbaum executive
#31

That's right.

Jonathan Kelcher analyst
#32

Alright. Then second, Dan, this is probably for you, on the topic of capital recycling. At present, are you seeing any chances to divest assets and put that money into new opportunities?

Daniel Oberste executive
#33

Yes. At this moment, Jonathan, nothing in our guidance pertains to dispositions or acquisitions. My read on the market, I think, is that we are observing some deal volume in our markets — several billion dollars' worth. Yet in conversations with buyers and sellers, capital feels under threat, and reduced transaction velocity is understandable. We view this as transitory, and we would rather transact specifically on the sell side in markets where capital does not feel threatened and where deal volume is elevated. So there are some read-throughs on certain low caps, though the buyer pool tends to be smaller and not institutional grade. And I will pin this entirely on volatility in credit spreads. If the buyer pool is leading — if the private buyer pool is leading on the acquisition front in our markets right now, Jonathan — then they will depend more heavily on the interest rate curve, and I think we have watched it take something like 16 different shapes over the last 2 months. So what we have observed is plenty of evidence of transactions being placed, or properties being placed under contract, at promising values. And then those transactions get thrown back by the market for one or more reasons, but all of them lead to credit rates, credit spreads.

Daniel Oberste executive
#34

We’ve done buying and selling across a number of different market types. In a market like this, when interest rate volatility is behaving the way it is, buyers often use it as a very handy excuse to back out of a deal. You also see far more buyers coming into the market who are more promoter-oriented—they try to get a property under contract and then go raise capital afterward. And from our experience, we’ve found that a buyer who isn’t reliable like that makes for an uncertain transaction. For dispositions, we simply can’t operate our business in that kind of environment. Does that answer your question?

Jonathan Kelcher analyst
#35

Right, yeah — I suppose what's needed is a more settled lending backdrop before volumes start rising, isn't that so?

Daniel Oberste executive
#36

Yeah, that's about right.

Operator operator
#37

We'll now take a question from Dean Wilkinson, who is on the line from CIBC.

Dean Wilkinson analyst
#38

I'd like to build on what Jonathan asked. Dan, in your view, is that hesitancy on the buyer side coming mainly from the equity side? Or is credit beginning to tighten for them somewhat, and perhaps these were acquirers that were potentially more highly levered and simply aren't getting that access to credit? And when you look at the 30-year now pushing past 5, with 10 probably on its way there, is it more a debt problem than an equity one?

Daniel Oberste executive
#39

Yes. I believe the equity follows from the debt, Dean. What I mean is, when debt in certain of these markets is priced at 530 and 540 for the leverage a private buyer is attempting to extract, then you really need strong conviction about revenue growth to justify an acquisition that carries negative leverage. So equity has the luxury of patience, but your credit partner will struggle to lever at 80% advance rates on those deals. And that comment applies specifically to — simply what we observe in the private market and its current behavior. Another thing you're noticing is how sellers are thinking. Luckily, for our investors, we captured our acquisitions and lease-ups within our '25 acquisition class. Sellers today recognize that a clear, distinct value gap exists between lease-up value and occupied value. As a result, we see many of those developers shifting toward finishing their lease-ups before they become genuinely and actively involved in selling. And of course, we find the biggest advantage in acquiring a lease-up asset, yet we encounter sellers who aren't necessarily keen.

Daniel Oberste executive
#40

They're looking to keep that worth for as long as possible. So what you're seeing in the market is a rather interesting game of chicken, aimed at provoking a seller who may hold the highest value — the buyer hopes to create income growth by purchasing lease-ups. The seller, meanwhile, wants to keep the lease-up because they think the occupied asset will trade at a greater value. The seller likely entered that deal more highly levered from the start and is simply trying to recover some of the capital they put into the deal at the outset. To me, all of that means sellers are holding onto lease-ups a bit longer and, I'd say, potentially a private buyer pool that's less reliable than in calmer waters.

Dean Wilkinson analyst
#41

But that doesn't necessarily point to, say, a seller who's under stress?

Daniel Oberste executive
#42

No, not right now. I mean, in almost any market you'll always find a few sellers who are under pressure. But what I see — from talking with operators — is a lot of patience, and the same goes for developers. I'm sure there's likely a bit of friction now and then around how partners behave, but it's nowhere near the point of people grabbing pitchforks and partnerships falling apart.

Dean Wilkinson analyst
#43

Correct—at this point it hasn't happened.

Operator operator
#44

The next question is from Kyle Stanley at Desjardins.

Kyle Stanley analyst
#45

Moving on to leasing spreads in Q1. Austin clearly showed fairly solid improvement, though Dallas came in somewhat weaker versus Q4. I'm wondering whether you could walk through how the dynamics differ between those two markets and what might have caused that in Dallas?

Susie Rosenbaum executive
#46

Yes, absolutely. So, you know, the supply situation in Dallas—especially in the northern submarkets like Frisco, McKinney, Prosper, and Celina—remains quite challenging. A significant amount of supply still has to be absorbed, and it will be, since plenty of people keep moving into those markets too. But you have lease-ups in that area still giving as much as 10, 3-weeks concessions along with gift cards ranging from $500 to $1,500. Now, we're still leasing up the asset we acquired in August, correct? And on just select 1- and 2-bedroom floor plans, we're offering roughly 8 weeks free. And on a few of our 3-bedroom floor plans, we offer 4 weeks free. With that, we're balancing rate, right, against physical occupancy as leasing continues. We're excited about the momentum we saw at the close of the first quarter, and we're still seeing it happen right now, which is why I believe it will be physically stabilized by July. But we're watching the rate side as well. We're comfortable with physical occupancy in the 94% to 96% range, as we've said. And we adjust the rates so they land inside that range.

Kyle Stanley analyst
#47

Alright, that's been quite useful. When we turn to the non-same-property portfolio and leave out the Ownsby, it really does appear that you've achieved considerable success there, and it's close to stabilizing. One thing you've mentioned before is being able to see margin improvement as that portion of the portfolio stabilizes further. How do today's margins compare with where they might land once you begin turning over leases and getting that second or third kick of the can on these?

Susie Rosenbaum executive
#48

Okay, so if we set aside the August acquisition, physical occupancy would likely average roughly 94%. After all concessions have been phased out, we'd expect margins at those newly added properties to come in at approximately 60%.

Operator operator
#49

We'll now take our following question from Sairam Srinivas, on the line from ATB Cormark Capital Markets.

Sairam Srinivas analyst
#50

I missed the beginning of this call, so I apologize if this point has come up already. But Susie, when you look at occupancy across these markets and you observe the ramp-up—obviously, you focus more on occupancy during the winter quarters—there is still a year-over-year gap between where that occupancy stood and where it sits right now. As you watch the next couple of quarters unfold, do we still feel comfortable expecting that supply cliff to drop off as we approach the end of this year and probably into '27?

Daniel Oberste executive
#51

Yes. Sai, Dan here. We feel quite good about it, honestly. What I mean is, we brought on an adviser — and I believe you may have been present when we discussed this back in December — who, for instance, went through Austin, reviewed the supply figures there, and then physically toured each property listed in the city of Austin as either delivered, standing, or under construction. And their figures, I would say, largely matched what CoStar shows. I believe the gap was roughly 60 or 70 units. So that's step one. Step two is that you can grasp, I'd say right down to the month, the timeline for getting a product from shovels in the ground through to delivery. So we believe we have a fairly solid view of construction and the process on the supply side of the equation, and of when those units will be delivered — or, in this instance, when they already have been delivered, from '22 through '25. And then, I think the other piece is the demand side. The figures for net employment growth keep reinforcing our thesis. I know all of us likely underwrote somewhat lower employment and population growth across Texas through 2030.

Daniel Oberste executive
#52

Those figures are pretty much on target. They've been available for a decade now, and they usually hold up quite well too. What we observe on the ground is that steady influx of people, though it matches what we had anticipated. So once you weigh the projects underway against the population increase, especially in the 18 or the 20 to 24 bracket, it's — honestly, it doesn't need to get much more complex than that. People arrive, households take shape. A share of those households will rent. A share of those renters will be first-time renters. There's a given count of units available in the market and a given count of expected residents who will be looking for new apartments in that market. And then you simply perform a bit of addition and subtraction across a stretch of time, and you can project some absorption figures. I believe all of us would wish the rates would shift sooner, but the absorption situation has remained quite clear and inflexible over the last 2 years. I hadn't come across many surprises there.

Operator operator
#53

That wraps up the Q&A portion. Now I'll return the call to Dan, who may have some closing remarks.

Daniel Oberste executive
#54

Thanks, Regina, and thanks to everyone. We’re looking forward to seeing you at NAREIT in early June for our investor presentations. In the meantime, if any of our investors would like a tour of our markets, you know where to reach us—please get in touch. We’d be glad to show you around our properties. Thanks, everybody, and have a good evening.

Operator operator
#55

That wraps up today's session. Thanks once more for being with us. You're free to hang up now.

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